2025 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

Coming off a 99-win season, the Rays shed 19 games last year to finish at 80-82, their first losing record since 2017. While certainly some of that loss can be chalked up to Wander Franco’s troubling legal issues, which have likely brought an end to his baseball career, a blend of injuries and few pleasant surprises also played a big part in the Rays’ dropping out of solid contention. Two-thirds of last year’s projected starters, both in the lineup and the rotation, are gone, making this season a bit of a transition for Tampa Bay.

For a team that doesn’t spend money practically ever, and coming off a bloodbath of trades of youngish veterans, one could call the lineup projections surprisingly good. There are only a few positions that project to be below average, and even those spots aren’t disasters; in fact, every position on the team projects for more than 1 WAR. That’s a testament to the team’s player development system, which has to continually restock the shelves year after year because the organization doesn’t have enough money in the budget to bring in established talent through free agency.

Even so, the best parts of this lineup are rather uninspiring. ZiPS projects the Rays to get at least 3 WAR from only one position, second base, but I’m more skeptical than the Depth Charts are about Brandon Lowe’s ability to stay healthy. In the outfield, ZiPS doesn’t think Jonny DeLuca’s defense will be enough to make up for his bat, and it believes that Christopher Morel is best suited as a DH, where he may have the best chance to live up to his power potential.

But it’s not all bad. ZiPS does like some Rays players, just not the ones on the top of the depth chart – yet. Four of the top-eight WAR projections on offense are players who have not yet seized the primary jobs at their positions. Carson Williams is hardly unexpected, of course, given that he’s a top-five prospect. ZiPS thinks his bat is already acceptable for a starter in the middle infield, and the coordinate-based defensive system I use for the minor leagues thought he was one of the best fielding shortstops in the minors. He’s not the only minor leaguer to get defensive plaudits from ZiPS; third baseman Brayden Taylor also appears to be elite with the leather. He’s not as big a name as Williams, but my colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him a 45/70 evaluation for defense last year, and the Rays have liked his glove enough to give him some run at shortstop, something you don’t do with your third baseman if you think he’s a butcher. Going well down the prospect lists, catcher Dominic Keegan and center fielder Chandler Simpson also get very promising projections.

Sum it all up and the Rays have a solid offense with a lot of depth and a real future, but I’m not sure the upside will be realized this season.

Pitchers

When you compare the innings pitched in the ZiPS projections and the ones listed on our Depth Charts, one conclusion I think you should draw is that the Rays are very reliant on getting healthy innings from Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen. The projections gauge the two as the most talented pitchers on the team right now, so it’s understandable that the Rays would struggle if they’re without McClanahan for the entire season and Rasmussen for most of it due to their respective major elbow surgeries.

That’s not to say ZiPS hates the rest of the rotation, just that McClanahan and Rasmussen would change the whole complexion of the staff. Ryan Pepiot was the odd man out in Los Angeles, but he thrived as a solid no. 2 or 3 starter with the Rays, who just stuck him in the rotation and left him there. Taj Bradley showed great progress from his rookie season, getting hit a lot less hard last year, and Zack Littell showed that Tampa hasn’t lost its touch for taking other teams’ castoffs and transmogrifying them into above-average starters, almost instantly.

A surprising number of other pitchers project to be about league average as starters: Shane Baz, Joe Rock, Mason Montgomery, and Mike Vasil. A few of these guys will likely see some significant bullpen innings, especially Montgomery.

The Rays don’t have the high-end bullpen arms that the Twins or Guardians do, at least not according to ZiPS, but they do still have is an impressive amount of relief pitching depth. The majority of the bullpen projects to be better than average, but only Kevin Kelly and Pete Fairbanks do by a large margin, with the computer not being all that high on Edwin Uceta. If the projections prove accurate, this is a solid bullpen, but it’s probably not going to make or break their chances of reaching the postseason.

The Rays are a good team, but they likely aren’t a great one. ZiPS projects them to finish with 84-88 wins, enough to put them back into contention, but perhaps not enough to actually make the playoffs.

Ballpark graphic is Dan’s mockup of George M. Steinbrenner Field. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Charts playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Charts playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Carson Williams R 22 SS 530 476 70 109 20 4 18 71 43 176 17 8
Brandon Lowe L 30 2B 443 393 60 95 20 1 21 65 42 116 5 1
Yandy Díaz R 33 1B 566 501 64 143 28 0 14 66 57 83 0 1
Brayden Taylor L 23 3B 500 444 67 95 24 5 16 61 51 166 14 4
Josh Lowe L 27 RF 480 436 58 114 26 2 15 60 40 143 24 1
Jonathan Aranda L 27 1B 441 385 60 100 18 1 15 59 43 110 1 1
Dominic Keegan R 24 C 442 394 48 96 20 2 9 51 36 105 0 0
Chandler Simpson L 24 CF 513 469 75 137 17 2 1 43 32 54 52 11
Curtis Mead R 24 3B 500 454 58 117 26 2 11 61 32 91 7 3
Junior Caminero R 21 3B 495 459 57 118 18 2 20 71 30 106 3 2
Danny Jansen R 30 C 316 275 39 61 14 0 13 38 33 63 0 0
Kameron Misner L 27 CF 511 448 61 94 23 2 12 57 56 173 17 4
Coco Montes R 28 2B 436 393 50 94 21 3 10 50 36 117 5 3
José Caballero R 28 SS 419 371 50 83 18 1 9 42 31 106 37 12
Jake Mangum B 29 CF 424 397 50 107 23 4 4 48 18 82 12 5
Logan Driscoll L 27 C 346 315 38 75 17 1 6 40 22 86 1 1
Tre’ Morgan L 22 1B 460 417 61 113 21 1 8 55 35 62 10 5
Bob Seymour L 26 1B 466 426 58 105 20 1 18 65 33 154 3 0
Dylan Carlson B 26 LF 396 346 42 82 18 2 8 42 38 92 3 1
Richie Palacios L 28 2B 414 357 53 85 18 2 6 42 47 74 14 2
Christopher Morel R 26 3B 583 519 72 120 21 3 25 79 54 161 9 5
Jonny DeLuca R 26 RF 412 374 46 86 18 3 12 48 30 83 13 3
Tanner Murray R 25 2B 404 383 45 98 25 2 6 46 16 81 2 1
Dru Baker R 25 LF 461 424 52 111 14 3 4 44 27 114 23 6
Kenny Piper R 26 C 343 305 39 57 12 1 10 41 26 108 3 0
Ricardo Genovés R 26 C 305 275 31 57 14 0 7 34 23 96 1 0
Taylor Walls B 28 SS 366 320 45 66 14 2 6 31 43 91 17 4
Matthew Etzel L 23 LF 474 432 55 107 19 4 9 52 33 126 24 8
Eloy Jiménez R 28 DH 413 381 38 99 18 0 13 49 28 84 2 0
Ben Rortvedt L 27 C 298 264 28 57 12 0 5 30 29 81 1 0
Osleivis Basabe R 24 SS 440 408 46 102 18 3 4 44 24 73 8 4
Tristan Peters L 25 RF 481 430 59 100 20 4 8 49 43 99 8 5
Homer Bush R 23 CF 446 401 53 91 13 1 5 46 27 103 27 8
Yu Chang R 29 SS 192 174 21 40 8 1 5 24 13 56 2 1
Ronny Simon B 25 2B 519 473 60 110 22 3 9 55 35 111 14 6
C.J. Hinojosa R 30 SS 401 373 39 88 18 1 6 42 20 79 3 2
Cooper Kinney L 22 2B 432 403 43 93 20 1 8 46 24 113 3 2
Tatem Levins L 26 C 303 276 29 55 10 0 7 32 21 83 0 0
Will Simpson R 23 1B 530 478 56 110 25 2 14 62 47 167 3 2
Xavier Isaac L 21 1B 456 408 56 92 20 2 15 58 41 158 7 1
Rob Brantly L 35 C 207 187 20 45 8 1 3 23 11 40 0 0
Colton Ledbetter L 23 RF 442 407 48 88 20 3 11 52 26 145 16 5
Heriberto Hernandez R 25 LF 461 405 55 87 19 1 15 58 45 148 3 1
Ryan Cermak R 24 CF 209 188 22 36 6 1 4 23 15 74 6 1
Noah Myers L 25 RF 366 315 40 64 14 1 5 33 42 110 17 3
Mac Horvath R 23 3B 466 425 52 85 22 2 10 50 32 140 18 1
Gregory Barrios R 21 SS 474 443 48 101 19 2 1 39 20 74 18 6
Matthew Dyer R 26 RF 201 183 22 38 7 2 3 20 14 82 4 1
Bryan Broecker R 23 C 197 172 14 27 4 0 1 12 20 73 5 1
Brock Jones L 24 RF 379 342 40 64 16 2 11 43 31 163 12 4
Blake Robertson L 24 1B 159 145 16 29 6 1 4 17 11 63 3 0
Kamren James R 25 C 298 272 29 55 9 1 6 35 13 99 3 3
Mason Auer R 24 RF 446 408 45 83 16 5 7 44 28 143 21 7
Angel Galarraga L 22 C 97 86 5 16 4 0 1 7 6 28 0 0
Elis Barreat R 22 2B 99 95 6 20 2 1 1 7 3 27 1 2
Raudelis Martinez L 23 C 323 292 28 53 9 1 3 25 21 58 4 1
Jalen Battles R 25 2B 313 292 33 60 9 1 2 25 16 93 3 2
Gionti Turner R 24 2B 214 194 19 37 5 1 1 17 12 70 5 3
Willy Vasquez R 23 3B 444 417 40 87 16 3 7 41 23 145 8 5
Hunter Haas R 23 SS 408 367 29 65 16 1 5 34 26 129 5 3
Jhon Diaz R 20 2B 285 259 30 51 11 2 3 27 16 82 3 4
Ryan Spikes R 22 LF 420 387 40 75 12 2 7 39 22 152 9 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
Carson Williams 530 .229 .302 .401 96 .172 .322 7 2.7 .306 103 64
Brandon Lowe 443 .242 .323 .458 117 .216 .289 -1 2.4 .337 111 59
Yandy Díaz 566 .285 .362 .425 121 .140 .319 -1 2.2 .345 115 78
Brayden Taylor 500 .214 .297 .399 93 .185 .302 7 2.2 .303 98 57
Josh Lowe 480 .261 .323 .433 110 .172 .356 3 2.1 .325 109 66
Jonathan Aranda 441 .260 .345 .428 116 .169 .327 3 1.9 .337 115 57
Dominic Keegan 442 .244 .312 .373 92 .129 .311 3 1.9 .300 95 46
Chandler Simpson 513 .292 .338 .343 93 .051 .328 -2 1.8 .302 92 70
Curtis Mead 500 .258 .318 .397 100 .139 .302 1 1.8 .312 100 60
Junior Caminero 495 .257 .307 .435 106 .178 .294 -2 1.7 .319 109 63
Danny Jansen 316 .221 .313 .414 103 .192 .241 0 1.6 .318 99 36
Kameron Misner 511 .210 .302 .350 83 .141 .311 5 1.6 .290 85 52
Coco Montes 436 .239 .307 .384 93 .145 .316 3 1.5 .303 93 49
José Caballero 419 .224 .302 .350 83 .127 .289 2 1.5 .289 84 52
Jake Mangum 424 .269 .309 .377 92 .108 .331 3 1.3 .300 90 51
Logan Driscoll 346 .238 .298 .355 83 .117 .309 4 1.3 .287 83 34
Tre’ Morgan 460 .271 .335 .384 102 .113 .303 2 1.1 .317 105 58
Bob Seymour 466 .246 .305 .425 102 .178 .342 2 1.0 .315 104 56
Dylan Carlson 396 .237 .323 .370 95 .133 .301 4 1.0 .307 95 42
Richie Palacios 414 .238 .335 .350 93 .112 .285 -5 1.0 .306 93 46
Christopher Morel 583 .231 .309 .428 105 .197 .286 -13 0.9 .319 107 73
Jonny DeLuca 412 .230 .297 .391 92 .161 .266 5 0.9 .300 95 47
Tanner Murray 404 .256 .292 .379 87 .123 .311 2 0.9 .292 88 43
Dru Baker 461 .262 .314 .337 84 .075 .349 6 0.8 .290 83 52
Kenny Piper 343 .187 .268 .331 68 .144 .251 5 0.8 .267 70 28
Ricardo Genovés 305 .207 .279 .335 72 .127 .291 3 0.7 .273 74 26
Taylor Walls 366 .207 .301 .319 75 .113 .270 -1 0.7 .280 76 36
Matthew Etzel 474 .248 .304 .373 89 .125 .330 3 0.7 .295 92 57
Eloy Jiménez 413 .260 .312 .410 101 .150 .303 0 0.6 .313 100 49
Ben Rortvedt 298 .216 .302 .318 75 .102 .292 0 0.5 .280 77 26
Osleivis Basabe 440 .250 .296 .338 78 .088 .296 -2 0.4 .280 81 44
Tristan Peters 481 .233 .308 .354 86 .121 .285 4 0.4 .293 88 51
Homer Bush 446 .227 .295 .302 69 .075 .294 2 0.4 .270 73 44
Yu Chang 192 .229 .293 .373 86 .143 .309 -2 0.3 .290 86 20
Ronny Simon 519 .233 .289 .349 79 .116 .286 -2 0.3 .281 82 53
C.J. Hinojosa 401 .236 .279 .338 73 .102 .285 0 0.3 .270 72 36
Cooper Kinney 432 .231 .278 .345 74 .114 .302 1 0.2 .273 78 40
Tatem Levins 303 .199 .264 .312 61 .112 .258 3 0.2 .256 63 23
Will Simpson 530 .230 .298 .379 89 .149 .324 2 0.2 .296 93 55
Xavier Isaac 456 .225 .300 .395 94 .169 .328 -2 0.2 .304 101 50
Rob Brantly 207 .241 .309 .343 84 .102 .292 -4 0.1 .291 78 20
Colton Ledbetter 442 .216 .269 .361 75 .145 .307 5 0.1 .275 82 45
Heriberto Hernandez 461 .215 .301 .378 89 .163 .297 -3 0.0 .298 93 47
Ryan Cermak 209 .192 .268 .298 59 .106 .291 2 0.0 .255 67 17
Noah Myers 366 .203 .299 .302 70 .099 .296 2 -0.1 .273 72 33
Mac Horvath 466 .200 .260 .332 65 .132 .273 0 -0.1 .260 72 41
Gregory Barrios 474 .228 .268 .286 56 .059 .272 4 -0.1 .246 59 40
Matthew Dyer 201 .208 .275 .317 66 .109 .358 2 -0.2 .264 68 17
Bryan Broecker 197 .157 .256 .198 31 .041 .266 4 -0.2 .217 32 10
Brock Jones 379 .187 .261 .342 68 .155 .315 4 -0.2 .266 75 35
Blake Robertson 159 .200 .264 .338 68 .138 .321 0 -0.3 .265 68 14
Kamren James 298 .202 .260 .308 59 .106 .293 -4 -0.5 .253 62 24
Mason Auer 446 .203 .263 .319 63 .115 .295 5 -0.5 .257 67 41
Angel Galarraga 97 .187 .246 .268 45 .082 .264 -3 -0.5 .231 46 6
Elis Barreat 99 .211 .242 .285 48 .074 .285 -2 -0.6 .233 48 8
Raudelis Martinez 323 .181 .242 .250 39 .068 .216 1 -0.8 .223 44 19
Jalen Battles 313 .206 .253 .264 46 .058 .295 2 -0.8 .233 51 21
Gionti Turner 214 .191 .255 .242 41 .052 .293 -1 -0.9 .228 45 14
Willy Vasquez 444 .209 .253 .312 58 .103 .302 -1 -1.0 .248 63 37
Hunter Haas 408 .177 .243 .267 44 .090 .257 -1 -1.2 .230 46 26
Jhon Diaz 285 .197 .255 .290 53 .093 .276 -7 -1.4 .243 61 21
Ryan Spikes 420 .194 .245 .289 50 .096 .298 4 -1.4 .237 57 31

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Carson Williams Felipe Lopez Fernando Tatis Jr. Jorge Orta
Brandon Lowe Robby Thompson Dan Uggla Doug DeCinces
Yandy Díaz Mark Grace Wes Parker Earl Sheely
Brayden Taylor Eric Hinske Denny Gonzalez Geronimo Pena
Josh Lowe Todd Hollandsworth Curtis Pride Lou Brock
Jonathan Aranda Travis Hafner Jeremy Giambi Tom Chism
Dominic Keegan John Ramos Steve Patchin Al Lopez
Chandler Simpson Brandon Watson Juan Pierre Jason Tyner
Curtis Mead Mike Baxes Donnie Hill Jose Báez
Junior Caminero Bill Mazeroski German Rivera Vern Stephens
Danny Jansen John Wockenfuss Curt Blefary Elrod Hendricks
Kameron Misner Jim Weaver Clifton Matthew Whitey Herzog
Coco Montes Jim Driscoll Ryan Pineda Joe Redfield
José Caballero Tommy Watkins Jimmy Sexton Tony Piet
Jake Mangum Howie Bedell Rajai Davis Juan Lagares
Logan Driscoll Danny Breeden Merritt Ranew Al Spohrer
Tre’ Morgan Matt Watson James Ziegler Jose Tabata
Bob Seymour Wayne Cage Dave McDonald Steve Whitaker
Dylan Carlson Norm Miller Bijan Rademacher Keith Hughes
Richie Palacios Pumpsie Green D’Angelo Jimenez Rudy Meoli
Christopher Morel Leon Brinkopf Danny Espinosa Ernie Fazio
Jonny DeLuca Max Venable Leon Culberson Mickey Brantley
Tanner Murray Tony Abreu Fernando Gonzalez Julio Linares
Dru Baker Hernan Iribarren Javon Moran Henry Cotto
Kenny Piper Pete Gongola Jeff Mathis William Sebera
Ricardo Genovés Jose Lobaton Billy Carthel George Vasquez
Taylor Walls Dave Owen Junior Spivey Mike Fischlin
Matthew Etzel Carlos Gómez Elijah Bonaparte Don White
Eloy Jiménez Colin Moran Dean Green Angel Echevarria
Ben Rortvedt Gene Lamont Jim Saul Tom Padden
Osleivis Basabe Thairo Estrada Tyler Pastornicky Andrelton Simmons
Tristan Peters Rafael Ortega James Walrath Mike Santos
Homer Bush Omar Garcia Garrett Neubart Doug Glanville
Yu Chang Benji Gil Mendy López Peter Maris
Ronny Simon Marco Scutaro Derrel Thomas Julian Javier
C.J. Hinojosa Pablo Bernard Julius Matos Juan Rios
Cooper Kinney Ryan Goins Frank Bolling Alan Trejo
Tatem Levins Bill Lachemann Mike Compton Al Liebert
Will Simpson Mario Valdez Matt Curry John Roskos
Xavier Isaac Michael Agosto Jim Obradovich Rick Sofield
Rob Brantly Jose Yepez Johnny Peacock Lavern Grace
Colton Ledbetter Julio Martinez Nolan Lane Colin Porter
Heriberto Hernandez Bob Wissler Rich Barry Danny Murphy
Ryan Cermak Brian Teeters Rob Bystrowski Harvey Lee
Noah Myers Juan Silva Danny Payne Billy Wolff
Mac Horvath Luis Guance Steve Kiefer Max George
Gregory Barrios Rob Valido Tucupita Marcano Óscar Mercado
Matthew Dyer Jack Woolsey Mark Doran Tom Coates
Bryan Broecker John Fleischauer Bill Boddy Scott Meier
Brock Jones Marlan Murphy Luis Silverio Tyler Johnson
Blake Robertson Jacob Julius Gene Petralli Kentrell Dewitt
Kamren James Carlos Mota Sonny Ruberto Jim Napier
Mason Auer Jacob Brumfield Jason Repko Julio Ramirez
Angel Galarraga Jordan Wideman Ryan Dalton Nestor Corredor
Elis Barreat Fred Brown Feliciano Mercedes Josh Hudnall
Raudelis Martinez Jin-De Jhang John Ramos Kenneth Lenhoff
Jalen Battles Garret Osilka Bobby Stevens Frank Moscat
Gionti Turner Demetrius Sims Josh Hudnall Jorge Mejia
Willy Vasquez Kim Batiste Tony Taylor Luis Aviles
Hunter Haas Brad Freeman Jake Wald Allan Parker
Jhon Diaz Rafael Martinez Todd Hankins Larry Infante
Ryan Spikes Aaron Altherr Thomas Jones Brett Boyer

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Carson Williams .262 .332 .457 119 4.1 .205 .276 .343 74 1.2
Brandon Lowe .266 .347 .514 137 3.6 .218 .300 .405 96 1.3
Yandy Díaz .312 .391 .467 138 3.4 .257 .338 .386 104 1.0
Brayden Taylor .246 .327 .457 118 3.5 .188 .270 .340 70 0.7
Josh Lowe .293 .356 .488 134 3.5 .231 .294 .385 91 0.9
Jonathan Aranda .288 .369 .483 136 3.0 .232 .314 .385 99 0.9
Dominic Keegan .272 .337 .427 113 3.0 .218 .286 .333 76 1.0
Chandler Simpson .321 .367 .376 110 3.1 .262 .311 .308 75 0.6
Curtis Mead .283 .345 .444 119 2.9 .234 .295 .354 83 0.7
Junior Caminero .286 .335 .498 129 3.2 .232 .281 .385 84 0.4
Danny Jansen .244 .338 .467 122 2.3 .196 .288 .363 83 0.8
Kameron Misner .233 .327 .400 102 2.6 .182 .274 .305 65 0.4
Coco Montes .266 .333 .435 112 2.5 .209 .276 .336 71 0.3
José Caballero .249 .329 .408 104 2.6 .195 .273 .303 63 0.3
Jake Mangum .301 .341 .424 112 2.4 .242 .281 .338 74 0.3
Logan Driscoll .268 .328 .403 104 2.2 .209 .273 .312 64 0.5
Tre’ Morgan .298 .362 .429 120 2.0 .245 .309 .347 85 0.1
Bob Seymour .273 .330 .481 125 2.3 .216 .277 .376 83 -0.2
Dylan Carlson .266 .351 .423 116 1.9 .209 .296 .326 77 0.1
Richie Palacios .265 .363 .398 113 1.9 .211 .306 .309 75 0.1
Christopher Morel .257 .332 .482 123 2.3 .210 .283 .373 84 -0.5
Jonny DeLuca .257 .322 .445 112 1.9 .204 .272 .340 72 -0.1
Tanner Murray .285 .321 .426 107 1.9 .231 .266 .337 68 0.0
Dru Baker .290 .345 .383 103 1.9 .230 .284 .305 66 -0.2
Kenny Piper .212 .295 .385 88 1.6 .161 .239 .282 47 -0.1
Ricardo Genovés .233 .307 .379 90 1.4 .177 .249 .284 51 -0.1
Taylor Walls .234 .330 .367 95 1.6 .179 .276 .274 57 -0.2
Matthew Etzel .271 .327 .423 107 1.7 .217 .277 .326 71 -0.3
Eloy Jiménez .287 .339 .458 121 1.7 .232 .283 .360 82 -0.3
Ben Rortvedt .243 .333 .366 95 1.3 .185 .275 .271 57 -0.1
Osleivis Basabe .275 .324 .383 96 1.4 .226 .274 .306 63 -0.5
Tristan Peters .258 .336 .400 103 1.5 .206 .281 .311 66 -0.7
Homer Bush .255 .321 .340 85 1.4 .202 .270 .268 53 -0.6
Yu Chang .257 .320 .428 106 0.7 .199 .264 .320 65 -0.2
Ronny Simon .258 .312 .390 94 1.3 .209 .265 .311 63 -0.7
C.J. Hinojosa .264 .308 .382 92 1.2 .210 .253 .295 54 -0.7
Cooper Kinney .258 .304 .387 93 1.2 .207 .256 .308 59 -0.6
Tatem Levins .226 .296 .363 82 1.0 .171 .236 .266 43 -0.4
Will Simpson .253 .324 .432 108 1.4 .203 .268 .333 69 -1.1
Xavier Isaac .254 .330 .450 116 1.5 .198 .272 .337 73 -1.1
Rob Brantly .272 .337 .387 104 0.6 .209 .280 .292 64 -0.4
Colton Ledbetter .243 .300 .409 96 1.2 .192 .247 .322 59 -0.8
Heriberto Hernandez .243 .326 .428 109 1.1 .187 .271 .320 67 -1.2
Ryan Cermak .221 .300 .355 83 0.6 .162 .242 .254 41 -0.5
Noah Myers .234 .331 .344 92 0.8 .175 .269 .259 52 -1.0
Mac Horvath .226 .286 .380 83 1.1 .178 .236 .288 47 -1.1
Gregory Barrios .258 .296 .325 75 1.0 .202 .244 .249 40 -1.1
Matthew Dyer .239 .304 .369 88 0.4 .179 .245 .274 46 -0.7
Bryan Broecker .186 .289 .233 47 0.3 .129 .226 .163 15 -0.6
Brock Jones .216 .289 .389 89 0.8 .157 .234 .285 46 -1.2
Blake Robertson .231 .292 .386 87 0.1 .173 .235 .289 49 -0.7
Kamren James .231 .289 .363 83 0.3 .172 .235 .260 41 -1.2
Mason Auer .233 .289 .363 82 0.5 .178 .241 .279 46 -1.5
Angel Galarraga .219 .277 .321 68 -0.3 .156 .213 .225 24 -0.8
Elis Barreat .240 .271 .332 68 -0.3 .180 .213 .247 28 -0.8
Raudelis Martinez .208 .272 .298 59 0.0 .155 .218 .214 22 -1.5
Jalen Battles .232 .283 .298 64 -0.1 .179 .228 .228 29 -1.4
Gionti Turner .217 .283 .277 58 -0.4 .162 .230 .210 24 -1.3
Willy Vasquez .235 .278 .351 74 -0.1 .181 .224 .265 37 -2.2
Hunter Haas .200 .267 .309 62 -0.3 .151 .220 .230 28 -2.0
Jhon Diaz .226 .285 .339 74 -0.7 .169 .229 .243 35 -2.0
Ryan Spikes .225 .276 .334 69 -0.4 .169 .223 .245 33 -2.2

Batters – Platoon Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Carson Williams .231 .309 .408 .228 .299 .398
Brandon Lowe .232 .306 .424 .245 .328 .469
Yandy Díaz .299 .377 .461 .280 .355 .409
Brayden Taylor .203 .277 .366 .218 .303 .411
Josh Lowe .248 .305 .411 .267 .330 .443
Jonathan Aranda .244 .329 .382 .268 .353 .453
Dominic Keegan .259 .328 .405 .237 .305 .360
Chandler Simpson .274 .318 .306 .299 .345 .357
Curtis Mead .272 .332 .420 .249 .310 .382
Junior Caminero .270 .327 .475 .252 .298 .418
Danny Jansen .218 .317 .402 .223 .312 .420
Kameron Misner .196 .283 .320 .217 .312 .366
Coco Montes .241 .315 .393 .238 .303 .379
José Caballero .228 .317 .354 .221 .294 .348
Jake Mangum .270 .306 .399 .269 .312 .365
Logan Driscoll .230 .291 .340 .242 .301 .363
Tre’ Morgan .254 .312 .351 .277 .343 .396
Bob Seymour .236 .296 .398 .251 .308 .436
Dylan Carlson .255 .336 .373 .230 .318 .369
Richie Palacios .238 .328 .337 .238 .337 .355
Christopher Morel .235 .321 .457 .230 .304 .415
Jonny DeLuca .238 .313 .401 .225 .286 .383
Tanner Murray .266 .304 .398 .251 .286 .369
Dru Baker .260 .314 .331 .263 .315 .340
Kenny Piper .194 .276 .333 .184 .265 .330
Ricardo Genovés .214 .287 .359 .203 .274 .320
Taylor Walls .218 .304 .347 .201 .299 .306
Matthew Etzel .235 .292 .336 .252 .308 .387
Eloy Jiménez .257 .317 .413 .261 .311 .408
Ben Rortvedt .211 .294 .289 .218 .305 .330
Osleivis Basabe .255 .303 .340 .247 .292 .337
Tristan Peters .224 .296 .322 .237 .314 .369
Homer Bush .227 .298 .311 .227 .294 .298
Yu Chang .238 .304 .381 .225 .287 .369
Ronny Simon .235 .289 .349 .231 .289 .349
C.J. Hinojosa .247 .293 .363 .229 .269 .322
Cooper Kinney .220 .265 .321 .235 .283 .354
Tatem Levins .192 .250 .260 .202 .269 .330
Will Simpson .234 .309 .386 .228 .293 .375
Xavier Isaac .212 .280 .354 .231 .308 .410
Rob Brantly .218 .295 .309 .250 .315 .356
Colton Ledbetter .202 .261 .321 .221 .272 .376
Heriberto Hernandez .217 .311 .406 .214 .295 .363
Ryan Cermak .190 .266 .276 .192 .269 .308
Noah Myers .196 .286 .272 .206 .305 .314
Mac Horvath .208 .273 .352 .197 .254 .323
Gregory Barrios .231 .273 .291 .227 .266 .285
Matthew Dyer .212 .288 .333 .205 .268 .308
Bryan Broecker .158 .273 .175 .157 .246 .209
Brock Jones .176 .247 .318 .191 .266 .350
Blake Robertson .184 .244 .289 .206 .271 .355
Kamren James .198 .253 .309 .204 .264 .309
Mason Auer .210 .272 .326 .200 .259 .315
Angel Galarraga .200 .259 .240 .180 .239 .279
Elis Barreat .226 .250 .258 .203 .239 .297
Raudelis Martinez .179 .235 .244 .182 .246 .252
Jalen Battles .207 .258 .276 .205 .251 .259
Gionti Turner .200 .268 .231 .186 .248 .248
Willy Vasquez .217 .261 .341 .205 .248 .299
Hunter Haas .183 .256 .284 .174 .238 .260
Jhon Diaz .195 .253 .299 .198 .257 .285
Ryan Spikes .198 .252 .298 .192 .241 .286

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Shane McClanahan L 28 8 5 3.25 19 19 110.7 93 40 13 28 118
Drew Rasmussen R 29 6 3 2.93 24 13 76.7 65 25 6 18 75
Ryan Pepiot R 27 8 6 3.87 26 24 121.0 103 52 16 45 128
Taj Bradley R 24 9 9 4.07 27 27 137.0 124 62 19 44 138
Zack Littell R 29 8 7 3.99 30 23 130.7 131 58 19 28 113
Joe Rock L 24 7 7 4.24 24 21 125.3 127 59 16 38 104
Shane Baz R 26 6 5 4.13 22 22 104.7 95 48 13 38 95
Mason Montgomery L 25 4 4 4.17 33 19 103.7 97 48 13 40 99
Mike Vasil R 25 7 8 4.39 26 24 121.0 122 59 15 40 92
Ian Seymour L 26 5 6 4.50 23 23 112.0 108 56 16 40 99
Kevin Kelly R 27 4 3 3.41 64 0 68.7 60 26 6 15 63
Logan Workman R 26 6 8 4.62 25 24 115.0 120 59 17 36 85
Pete Fairbanks R 31 4 2 3.38 47 0 45.3 38 17 4 17 50
Cole Wilcox R 25 6 9 4.76 25 25 117.3 126 62 15 38 75
Jacob Waguespack R 31 4 4 4.31 21 12 71.0 70 34 9 28 66
Tyler Alexander L 30 6 7 4.62 27 12 115.0 120 59 21 24 91
Joe Boyle R 25 5 7 4.60 25 22 90.0 74 46 10 62 103
Edwin Uceta R 27 3 2 3.78 45 1 66.7 55 28 7 25 74
Nathan Wiles R 26 4 4 4.64 30 14 87.3 94 45 12 20 55
Duncan Davitt R 25 6 8 4.89 24 21 108.7 114 59 17 36 82
Manuel Rodríguez R 28 4 4 3.74 56 0 55.3 49 23 5 21 53
Sean Hunley R 25 4 6 4.67 28 14 81.0 86 42 11 20 49
Brendan McKay L 29 2 1 4.43 13 12 44.7 46 22 7 13 38
Richard Lovelady L 29 6 5 3.86 47 1 51.3 49 22 5 14 45
Andrew Wantz R 29 1 2 4.24 30 4 46.7 41 22 6 19 47
Nate Lavender L 25 3 3 3.89 32 1 44.0 35 19 4 22 52
Garrett Cleavinger L 31 5 5 4.00 57 0 54.0 45 24 6 25 63
Trevor Martin R 24 4 7 5.03 25 23 107.3 112 60 18 37 84
Ben Peoples R 24 4 5 4.94 19 18 71.0 72 39 10 35 59
Jake Odorizzi R 35 3 5 4.95 14 14 63.7 69 35 10 24 48
Yoniel Curet R 22 6 8 5.11 25 24 104.0 96 59 14 59 98
Colin Poche L 31 3 4 4.20 55 0 49.3 44 23 7 18 44
Eric Orze R 27 4 3 4.15 40 0 56.3 50 26 7 26 59
Hunter Bigge R 27 2 1 4.14 39 1 41.3 36 19 5 22 47
Trevor Brigden R 29 3 3 4.31 34 1 48.0 46 23 6 18 46
Cole Sulser R 35 3 2 4.37 38 2 45.3 43 22 6 20 43
Joe Record R 30 2 2 4.44 40 3 52.7 53 26 6 26 44
Patrick Wicklander L 25 3 4 5.00 25 9 72.0 78 40 11 29 50
Paul Gervase R 25 3 3 4.30 37 0 46.0 38 22 5 26 52
Joey Gerber R 28 1 2 4.66 24 1 29.0 28 15 4 14 27
Dalton Moats L 30 1 1 4.50 28 0 32.0 32 16 4 12 27
Kyle Whitten R 26 2 4 4.71 31 1 42.0 44 22 6 15 30
Mike Flynn R 28 2 2 4.79 33 1 41.3 39 22 6 16 41
Nate Dahle R 27 3 3 4.63 31 0 46.7 48 24 7 17 38
Erasmo Ramirez R 35 3 4 4.62 41 1 62.3 65 32 10 19 49
Alfredo Zarraga R 24 3 4 4.75 44 1 55.0 53 29 8 27 51
Keyshawn Askew L 25 3 5 4.98 41 3 65.0 61 36 8 33 58
Jack Hartman R 26 2 4 4.95 34 0 40.0 42 22 6 18 32
Joey Krehbiel R 32 3 3 4.91 46 0 47.7 48 26 7 20 36
Haden Erbe R 26 2 4 5.19 25 2 34.7 35 20 6 17 30
Antonio Menendez R 26 3 4 4.83 36 0 54.0 53 29 7 27 45
Austin Vernon R 26 3 4 5.27 34 3 56.3 55 33 9 32 53
Carlos Garcia R 26 2 3 5.36 31 4 50.3 51 30 9 25 42
Jonny Cuevas R 24 3 4 5.27 30 2 54.7 60 32 8 29 34
Dan Hammer R 27 2 3 5.80 26 2 40.3 39 26 6 33 37
Jake Brentz L 30 1 1 6.16 36 0 30.7 28 21 4 27 30

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Shane McClanahan 110.7 9.6 2.3 1.1 6.2% 26.2% .279 125 124 3.36 80 2.4
Drew Rasmussen 76.7 8.8 2.1 0.7 5.8% 24.0% .282 139 134 3.02 72 1.8
Ryan Pepiot 121.0 9.5 3.3 1.2 8.9% 25.2% .277 105 105 4.10 95 1.8
Taj Bradley 137.0 9.1 2.9 1.2 7.6% 24.0% .285 100 102 4.02 100 1.8
Zack Littell 130.7 7.8 1.9 1.3 5.1% 20.7% .293 102 102 4.07 98 1.7
Joe Rock 125.3 7.5 2.7 1.1 7.1% 19.4% .297 96 100 4.23 104 1.4
Shane Baz 104.7 8.2 3.3 1.1 8.5% 21.3% .279 99 100 4.24 101 1.3
Mason Montgomery 103.7 8.6 3.5 1.1 9.0% 22.3% .291 98 101 4.20 102 1.1
Mike Vasil 121.0 6.8 3.0 1.1 7.6% 17.6% .290 93 96 4.46 108 1.1
Ian Seymour 112.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.4% 20.7% .287 91 94 4.61 110 1.0
Kevin Kelly 68.7 8.3 2.0 0.8 5.4% 22.7% .281 120 120 3.48 84 0.9
Logan Workman 115.0 6.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 17.2% .291 88 92 4.69 113 0.8
Pete Fairbanks 45.3 9.9 3.4 0.8 8.9% 26.0% .291 121 116 3.31 83 0.7
Cole Wilcox 117.3 5.8 2.9 1.2 7.4% 14.6% .293 86 89 4.74 117 0.7
Jacob Waguespack 71.0 8.4 3.5 1.1 9.1% 21.4% .300 95 91 4.32 106 0.6
Tyler Alexander 115.0 7.1 1.9 1.6 5.0% 19.0% .288 88 87 4.70 113 0.6
Joe Boyle 90.0 10.3 6.2 1.0 15.0% 25.0% .284 89 93 4.60 113 0.6
Edwin Uceta 66.7 10.0 3.4 0.9 9.0% 26.7% .282 108 109 3.63 93 0.6
Nathan Wiles 87.3 5.7 2.1 1.2 5.4% 14.8% .291 88 91 4.53 114 0.5
Duncan Davitt 108.7 6.8 3.0 1.4 7.6% 17.3% .291 83 88 4.89 120 0.5
Manuel Rodríguez 55.3 8.6 3.4 0.8 8.9% 22.6% .288 109 109 3.85 92 0.5
Sean Hunley 81.0 5.4 2.2 1.2 5.8% 14.3% .286 87 91 4.73 114 0.5
Brendan McKay 44.7 7.7 2.6 1.4 6.8% 19.8% .295 92 91 4.45 109 0.4
Richard Lovelady 51.3 7.9 2.5 0.9 6.5% 21.0% .295 106 105 3.68 95 0.4
Andrew Wantz 46.7 9.1 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.6% .280 96 97 4.19 104 0.3
Nate Lavender 44.0 10.6 4.5 0.8 11.7% 27.7% .287 105 110 3.77 95 0.3
Garrett Cleavinger 54.0 10.5 4.2 1.0 10.8% 27.3% .289 102 100 3.96 98 0.3
Trevor Martin 107.3 7.0 3.1 1.5 7.9% 18.0% .290 81 87 5.02 123 0.3
Ben Peoples 71.0 7.5 4.4 1.3 11.0% 18.6% .294 83 89 4.95 121 0.3
Jake Odorizzi 63.7 6.8 3.4 1.4 8.6% 17.1% .299 82 76 4.94 121 0.2
Yoniel Curet 104.0 8.5 5.1 1.2 12.5% 20.8% .284 80 86 5.15 125 0.2
Colin Poche 49.3 8.0 3.3 1.3 8.6% 21.1% .270 97 98 4.39 103 0.2
Eric Orze 56.3 9.4 4.2 1.1 10.7% 24.2% .289 98 101 4.24 102 0.2
Hunter Bigge 41.3 10.2 4.8 1.1 12.0% 25.5% .295 99 100 4.15 101 0.1
Trevor Brigden 48.0 8.6 3.4 1.1 8.7% 22.3% .296 95 96 4.14 106 0.1
Cole Sulser 45.3 8.5 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.8% .291 93 85 4.33 107 0.1
Joe Record 52.7 7.5 4.4 1.0 10.9% 18.5% .299 92 90 4.58 109 0.1
Patrick Wicklander 72.0 6.3 3.6 1.4 9.0% 15.5% .295 82 86 5.15 123 0.1
Paul Gervase 46.0 10.2 5.1 1.0 12.7% 25.4% .284 95 101 4.22 106 0.1
Joey Gerber 29.0 8.4 4.3 1.2 10.9% 21.1% .293 88 91 4.56 114 0.0
Dalton Moats 32.0 7.6 3.4 1.1 8.5% 19.1% .295 91 91 4.33 110 0.0
Kyle Whitten 42.0 6.4 3.2 1.3 8.1% 16.1% .290 87 91 4.75 116 -0.1
Mike Flynn 41.3 8.9 3.5 1.3 8.9% 22.9% .292 85 87 4.82 117 -0.1
Nate Dahle 46.7 7.3 3.3 1.4 8.4% 18.7% .293 88 93 4.72 113 -0.1
Erasmo Ramirez 62.3 7.1 2.7 1.4 7.1% 18.2% .293 88 82 4.75 113 -0.1
Alfredo Zarraga 55.0 8.3 4.4 1.3 10.9% 20.6% .290 86 91 4.91 116 -0.2
Keyshawn Askew 65.0 8.0 4.6 1.1 11.3% 19.9% .286 82 87 5.07 122 -0.2
Jack Hartman 40.0 7.2 4.1 1.4 9.9% 17.7% .298 82 86 4.95 121 -0.2
Joey Krehbiel 47.7 6.8 3.8 1.3 9.6% 17.2% .285 83 81 4.90 120 -0.2
Haden Erbe 34.7 7.8 4.4 1.6 10.7% 18.9% .290 79 82 5.43 127 -0.2
Antonio Menendez 54.0 7.5 4.5 1.2 11.1% 18.4% .289 84 88 4.97 118 -0.3
Austin Vernon 56.3 8.5 5.1 1.4 12.4% 20.5% .291 77 81 5.29 129 -0.3
Carlos Garcia 50.3 7.5 4.5 1.6 10.9% 18.3% .286 76 79 5.62 132 -0.4
Jonny Cuevas 54.7 5.6 4.8 1.3 11.5% 13.4% .292 77 83 5.48 129 -0.4
Dan Hammer 40.3 8.3 7.4 1.3 16.8% 18.9% .289 70 72 6.10 142 -0.6
Jake Brentz 30.7 8.8 7.9 1.2 17.9% 19.9% .286 66 65 6.34 151 -0.7

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Shane McClanahan Bill Walker Juan Pizarro Carl Hubbell
Drew Rasmussen Larry Christenson Alexi Ogando Brandon Woodruff
Ryan Pepiot Steve Busby Bobby Bolin Dustin Hermanson
Taj Bradley Johnny Cueto Taijuan Walker Joe Coleman
Zack Littell Rick Wise Lee Peterson Doc Medich
Joe Rock Pat Misch Randy Lerch Jeff Ballard
Shane Baz Clay Buchholz Michael Wacha Taijuan Walker
Mason Montgomery Phil Coke Scott Taylor Kevin Brown
Mike Vasil Jason Davis Robert Gsellman Sal Romano
Ian Seymour Mike McCormick Mike Mason Allen Watson
Kevin Kelly Manny Corpas Luis Ayala Ron Taylor
Logan Workman Matt Wisler Daniel Mengden Taylor Clarke
Pete Fairbanks Mike Timlin Darren Holmes Don Aase
Cole Wilcox Robert Gsellman Jose Urena Daniel Mengden
Jacob Waguespack Kasey Olenberger Everett Stull Santo Alcala
Tyler Alexander Mike Bacsik Mike McCormick Brian Anderson
Joe Boyle Dave Morehead Lowell Palmer Frank LaCorte
Edwin Uceta J.J. Hoover Eddie Watt Jim Brosnan
Nathan Wiles Raul Alcantara Chad Jenkins Tim McClaskey
Duncan Davitt Hector Noesi Matt Wisler David Hess
Manuel Rodríguez Scott Oberg Michael Lorenzen Ryan Pressly
Sean Hunley Richelson Pena Gary Schlieve Joe Norrito
Brendan McKay Fred Heimach Robert Hoch Bill Tsoukalas
Richard Lovelady Frank Gailey Tim Kubinski John O’Donoghue
Andrew Wantz Ed Bauta Wes Stock Scott Bankhead
Nate Lavender Royce Ring Tim Collins Joel McKeon
Garrett Cleavinger Bruce Ruffin Andrew Miller Dave LaRoche
Trevor Martin Eli Morgan Luis Perdomo Harold Byfuss
Ben Peoples Tim Atherton Derrick Turnbow Henry Sosa
Jake Odorizzi Mel Harder Travis Banwart Nerio Rodriguez
Yoniel Curet Connor Graham Reggie Dobie Robert Stephenson
Colin Poche Paul Lindblad Fernando Abad Rich Rodriguez
Eric Orze Roger Weaver Miguel Socolovich Phil Hennigan
Hunter Bigge Myles Smith Adam Jorgenson Michael Neu
Trevor Brigden Mark Hutton Jim Mann Kevin Quackenbush
Cole Sulser Jared Burton Kevin Gregg Joe Boever
Joe Record Jeff Cornell Francisco Felix Ryan Reid
Patrick Wicklander Dennis Moeller Shaun Shiery Kelvin Villa
Paul Gervase Mark Acre Don Newhauser Wilmer Font
Joey Gerber Cloyd Boyer Duane Shaffer Dave Wallace
Dalton Moats Danny Boone Bob Cluck Mike Rhodes
Kyle Whitten Steve Rowe Michael Dwyer Neil Jamison
Mike Flynn Matt Anderson Paul Smyth Phil Hennigan
Nate Dahle J.R. Pickens Mike Ericson Andrew Snowdon
Erasmo Ramirez Johnny Hetki Rusty Meacham Joe Boever
Alfredo Zarraga Carl Keliipuleole Johnny Barbato Austin Hinkle
Keyshawn Askew Mike Madden Chris Petrini Andrew Faulkner
Jack Hartman Matt Stites Todd Ozias Jesse Simpson
Joey Krehbiel Alfredo Aceves Mike Fornieles Georges Maranda
Haden Erbe Steve Jones Brad Niedermaier Donald Hammitt
Antonio Menendez J.C. Ramirez Daniel Webb Mark Silva
Austin Vernon Jordan Foley Jay Flaa Cory Rasmus
Carlos Garcia Mark Ecker Anderson Garcia Brennan Smith
Jonny Cuevas Blas Cedeno Juan Sosa Kyle Duey
Dan Hammer Yoel Espinal James Thornton Trey Haley
Jake Brentz Drew Hall Scott Forster Willard Hunter

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Shane McClanahan .242 .278 .363 .217 .269 .370 3.1 1.6 2.72 3.89
Drew Rasmussen .217 .271 .302 .230 .273 .360 2.3 1.2 2.40 3.66
Ryan Pepiot .232 .328 .401 .219 .283 .367 2.6 0.9 3.32 4.42
Taj Bradley .254 .325 .438 .219 .271 .363 2.8 0.7 3.51 4.70
Zack Littell .256 .304 .437 .254 .290 .420 2.5 1.0 3.51 4.56
Joe Rock .255 .311 .392 .258 .317 .431 2.1 0.6 3.77 4.89
Shane Baz .226 .308 .389 .245 .311 .392 2.0 0.5 3.62 4.66
Mason Montgomery .221 .299 .336 .251 .324 .427 1.9 0.2 3.61 4.83
Mike Vasil .257 .323 .442 .256 .321 .392 1.8 0.3 3.94 4.96
Ian Seymour .261 .344 .384 .242 .313 .433 1.7 0.1 4.00 5.16
Kevin Kelly .248 .312 .398 .216 .273 .318 1.5 0.3 2.74 4.10
Logan Workman .283 .345 .455 .242 .296 .422 1.6 0.1 4.08 5.18
Pete Fairbanks .235 .311 .358 .211 .280 .333 1.3 0.1 2.57 4.57
Cole Wilcox .278 .343 .473 .259 .319 .390 1.4 0.0 4.27 5.23
Jacob Waguespack .246 .331 .362 .257 .323 .446 1.1 0.1 3.80 5.00
Tyler Alexander .244 .283 .387 .270 .310 .490 1.4 -0.4 4.04 5.41
Joe Boyle .216 .354 .364 .222 .343 .364 1.4 -0.5 3.92 5.62
Edwin Uceta .223 .307 .347 .215 .290 .362 1.1 -0.1 3.16 4.67
Nathan Wiles .280 .324 .463 .259 .305 .416 1.0 0.0 4.14 5.22
Duncan Davitt .271 .339 .469 .258 .319 .422 1.1 -0.1 4.39 5.38
Manuel Rodríguez .258 .342 .423 .211 .289 .307 0.9 -0.2 3.13 4.68
Sean Hunley .265 .322 .457 .269 .320 .419 0.9 0.0 4.14 5.22
Brendan McKay .245 .298 .396 .266 .319 .460 0.7 0.0 3.90 5.18
Richard Lovelady .225 .291 .310 .258 .309 .422 0.9 0.0 3.16 4.50
Andrew Wantz .256 .348 .385 .210 .279 .390 0.8 -0.1 3.51 5.14
Nate Lavender .218 .328 .345 .211 .315 .339 0.8 -0.1 3.12 4.74
Garrett Cleavinger .221 .312 .338 .221 .323 .375 1.0 -0.5 3.18 5.37
Trevor Martin .240 .309 .418 .283 .348 .483 1.0 -0.3 4.51 5.58
Ben Peoples .257 .346 .434 .257 .341 .431 0.8 -0.2 4.36 5.52
Jake Odorizzi .260 .328 .439 .280 .342 .462 0.6 -0.3 4.41 5.82
Yoniel Curet .230 .349 .383 .248 .359 .422 0.9 -0.6 4.64 5.74
Colin Poche .224 .297 .379 .238 .306 .415 0.7 -0.4 3.45 5.12
Eric Orze .216 .325 .340 .246 .318 .424 0.6 -0.3 3.53 4.95
Hunter Bigge .213 .314 .400 .244 .337 .366 0.5 -0.3 3.50 4.95
Trevor Brigden .235 .316 .412 .255 .319 .392 0.5 -0.4 3.64 5.37
Cole Sulser .224 .298 .365 .264 .340 .451 0.6 -0.4 3.54 5.44
Joe Record .283 .374 .478 .235 .315 .348 0.5 -0.4 3.85 5.21
Patrick Wicklander .250 .330 .396 .281 .350 .484 0.6 -0.4 4.43 5.58
Paul Gervase .226 .343 .405 .213 .317 .326 0.5 -0.4 3.66 5.11
Joey Gerber .264 .361 .472 .233 .299 .383 0.3 -0.3 4.04 5.78
Dalton Moats .244 .306 .356 .259 .330 .457 0.3 -0.3 3.79 5.59
Kyle Whitten .269 .345 .436 .258 .309 .438 0.2 -0.4 4.12 5.36
Mike Flynn .233 .333 .411 .253 .347 .425 0.3 -0.5 4.04 5.63
Nate Dahle .279 .361 .453 .242 .296 .424 0.2 -0.5 3.95 5.36
Erasmo Ramirez .267 .333 .448 .260 .310 .443 0.4 -0.6 3.92 5.53
Alfredo Zarraga .255 .353 .422 .241 .328 .420 0.3 -0.6 4.12 5.38
Keyshawn Askew .210 .343 .284 .259 .362 .453 0.3 -0.7 4.34 5.69
Jack Hartman .280 .365 .413 .250 .319 .476 0.0 -0.6 4.38 5.67
Joey Krehbiel .250 .333 .382 .261 .325 .468 0.1 -0.6 4.34 5.79
Haden Erbe .269 .364 .478 .246 .338 .435 0.0 -0.6 4.58 6.05
Antonio Menendez .270 .373 .470 .234 .323 .360 0.1 -0.7 4.27 5.56
Austin Vernon .235 .358 .412 .263 .348 .449 0.1 -0.8 4.66 6.05
Carlos Garcia .271 .360 .479 .245 .345 .441 0.0 -0.7 4.77 6.02
Jonny Cuevas .260 .364 .410 .283 .351 .483 0.0 -0.7 4.74 5.85
Dan Hammer .247 .396 .438 .250 .390 .417 -0.2 -1.1 5.09 6.75
Jake Brentz .194 .370 .306 .256 .426 .451 -0.4 -1.2 5.23 7.85

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.


You’re Not Going To Believe What Xavier Edwards Is Slapping Now

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 Miami Marlins were pretty good. They couldn’t hit much, but they had a huge surplus of pitching. Enough not only to survive an injury to 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, but to trade from that surplus and acquire batting champion Luis Arraez. They won 84 games and made the playoffs. Once there, they got completely smoked in the Wild Card round, but things seemed to be going in the right direction.

They weren’t. More injuries piled up in 2024. Other pitchers regressed. Many, if not most, of the key players from 2023 — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger, Josh Bell, Jesús Luzardo, Jorge Soler, Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, even Arraez himself — either were traded or left as free agents. So too did manager Skip Schumaker, who earned plaudits for his handling of a flawed but decent roster in 2023, but lost 100 games a year later with the shattered remnants of that playoff team. He’s probably better off.

If you want reasons for optimism, you’re going to have to look hard. But if you want to find the successor to Arraez, you can stop at the top of Miami’s lineup. Read the rest of this entry »


San Francisco Giants Top 42 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2271: Deaths Came in Three

EWFI
Deaths don’t actually come in threes—unfortunately, there are many more than that—but Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley begin by marking the passings of a trio of notable figures: David Lynch, Bob Uecker, and Tommy Brown. Then (35:27) they talk about the maybe-momentous signing of a Japanese player not named Roki Sasaki (Shotaro Morii), follow up on previous conversations about “breakout” creep, answer a couple of questions about breakouts, and then respond to listener emails on other topics, including nicknames for pitches, the evolving meaning of “moneyball,” phasing out Hall of Famers, and a modification to the infield fly rule.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Lynch NYT obit
Link to Uecker NYT obit
Link to Uecker acting roles
Link to Brown NYT obit
Link to Brown AP obit
Link to Brown SABR bio
Link to Brown text interview
Link to Brown audio interview
Link to MLBTR on Brown
Link to 1940s clippings on Brown
Link to Ben’s Brown Twitter thread
Link to The Athletic on Morii
Link to Silver on breakouts
Link to skeuomorph wiki
Link to Detroiters on Netflix
Link to Ben on Detroiters
Link to Baker on LinkedIn
Link to infield fly play
Link to Strike Four
Link to listener emails database
Link to grumkins wiki
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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Meet the New Mookie Betts, Same as the Old Mookie Betts

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Do me favor. Don’t imagine trading Mookie Betts. Who would do that, anyway? Instead, imagine Mookie Betts trading Mookie Betts. That is to say, imagine Mookie Betts deciding to trade the current version of himself for a younger version of himself. Most of us would make that trade in a second – my younger self had so much hair and was already reading at a fifth-grade level! – but why would Mookie Betts make that trade? Coming into 2024, he had just put up a seven-win season while running a 166 wRC+, the second-best batting line of what should end up as a Hall of Fame career. That’s the ideal self, right there. No trades necessary.

From afar, Betts’s 2024 season was of a piece with the ones that preceded it. He put up his eighth-career 4-WAR season and ran a 141 wRC+, almost exactly in line with his career mark. But look at this:

Go ahead and ignore the short 2020 season, when Betts posted a low pull rate. All the numbers go up toward the second half of the graph before dipping back down in 2024. In a couple of major ways, Betts looked a lot less like what we’ve seen in this decade, and a lot more like what we saw back in the first few seasons of his career. He went back to striking out less, pulling the ball less, and hitting the ball significantly softer. In case that graph isn’t clear to you, let me show you the same numbers, this time split up into three chunks: 2014 through 2017, 2018 through 2023, and then just the 2024 season.

See the chunks? If those three metrics — Betts’ strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and pull rate — are ringing some bells, it’s probably because I wrote about them back in May. At the time, I noticed that pitchers were doing their absolute best to pitch Betts away, away, away. Well, that trend continued throughout the season, and it certainly seems possible that it explains a lot of these numbers. Continuing with our theme, let’s take this in chunks. We’ll talk about the strikeout rate first because it’s the least dramatic.

Betts has never been anything but excellent at avoiding strikeouts. However, he had an 11% strikeout rate in 2024, and even by his own ridiculous standards, that was something. It was tied for the best mark of his career, it represented a nearly 30% drop-off from his 2023 rate, and it put him in the 98th percentile of all major league hitters. The thing is, his plate discipline didn’t change all that dramatically. He saw fewer pitches in the zone, which is a good way to avoid strikeouts, but he also had one of the higher chase rates of his career. The big difference was that he swung more often on the first pitch and he recorded one of the highest contact rates of his career. That’s a little odd, because chasing more normally leads to whiffing more. However, seeing more outside pitches could lead to more contact, as the ideal contact point for an outside pitch is further behind home plate, which gives the batter more time to react. As I mentioned, all of these numbers were within Betts’ career norms, but between the aggression, especially on the first pitch, and the higher chase rate, it seems safe to say that Betts was looking to put the ball in play a bit more often.

At the same time, Betts’ contact quality took an enormous dip. His hard-hit rate fell from 48.5% in 2023 all the way to 39.5%. That still left him fairly close to the league average, but it was one of the biggest drops in baseball, and the underlying numbers are even uglier. Betts’ 90th percentile exit velocity and his best speed (which throws out the weakest 50% of batted balls and then takes the average of the remaining 50%) represented career lows. The 90th percentile mark put him in the 27th percentile. This is not the direction in which you want to be trending.

As I noted back in May, Betts adjusted to the outside pitches by setting up closer to the plate. That can make it difficult to hit the inside pitch with authority, because you have less time to turn on it, but Betts’ contact quality was down across the board. Here’s his hard-hit rate on pitches in the zone:

The inner third definitely saw the biggest drop-off, but his hard-hit rate was down on pitches out over the plate too. That brings us to our third and final chunk. Betts ran a 34.3% pull rate, the lowest of his career and at least 10 percentage points lower than his rate in each of the three previous seasons. Here are spray heat maps for 2023 and 2024. Everything’s shifting away from left field and toward right field. It’s also shifting away from deep fly balls.

Betts has never been the strongest player in the league, but he’s always hit the ball hard, and he transformed himself into one of the game’s true masters at turning on the inside pitch and ripping it down the line or over the fence. In 2024, however, he traded that super power for the ability to spray line drives to all fields. It certainly seems like this was a response to the way he was being pitched. After all, it’s pretty hard to yank a pitch on the outside corner down the left field line. And if you’re not seeing pitches that you can yank to the pull side, then it no longer makes sense to build your whole approach around that goal.

I don’t want to overreact to a single season, let alone one in which Betts produced his typical fantastic offensive numbers — especially considering that Betts missed nearly two months with a fractured hand. This is one of those times when I really wish we had bat tracking data stretching back over the last several years. Betts had an average bat speed of 69.1 mph in 2024, which put him in just the 14th percentile, and I wish there were a way to know whether that was a big drop-off from previous seasons. He turned 32 last year, and just Tuesday, Tom Tango published an aging curve that makes it look like there’s a dramatic bat speed drop-off starting at 32. If you look at Betts’ spray charts and his contact rates, you get the sense that he just reworked his approach in order to make the most of the pitches he was seeing. However, the exit velocity numbers are such an extreme departure from his previous seasons. To some degree, they’re probably a symptom of that larger adjustment, but Betts’ bat may just be slower than it used to be.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/16/25

11:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Umm, it seems to have started already, so I’ll be back here in 16 minutes.

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, NOW we’re starting for real!

12:01
Guest: Thx for chats…the Yankees traded for Fernando cruz….how does zips see him performing in 25?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at a 3.14 ERA/3.09 FIP, ERA+ 131 with a billion strikeouts in 57 IP in NY

12:03
Idiotic Failson: Why is my favorite team hated by ZIPs?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Things that you have done.

Read the rest of this entry »


How Productive Were Those Outs? Team Edition

Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, I threw some numbers together on the value of productive outs. I focused on Corbin Carroll, and rightly so: His electric skill set is a perfect entry point for explaining how hitters can add (or subtract) value relative to average even when making an out. Putting the ball in play? We love it. Avoiding double plays? We love that too. The Diamondbacks are a team full of speedsters, and Carroll’s productive outs gave their baserunners a chance to show off their wheels.

A quick refresher: I calculated the difference in run scoring expectation between the average out and a specific type of out (strikeout, air out, non-GIDP groundout, double play) for each base/out state. Then I had a computer program tag each out made in 2024 with that difference. For example, the average out made with a runner on second and no outs cost teams 0.35 runs of scoring expectation in 2024. Groundouts in that situation only cost 0.25 runs, a difference of 0.1 runs.

Thus, on every groundout that occurred with a runner on second and no out, I had the computer note ‘plus 0.1’ for the “productive out” value. A strikeout in that situation, on the other hand, lowered scoring expectancy by 0.43 runs, a difference from average of -.09 runs. So the computer noted ‘minus 0.09’ for every strikeout with a runner on second and no out. Do this for every combination of base/out state and out type, add it all up, and you can work out the total value of a player’s productive outs. Read the rest of this entry »


Red Sox Assistant Hitting Coach Dillon Lawson Discusses Swing Decisions

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Good swing decisions are vital to a hitter’s success. Having a finely tuned stroke is important — swing mechanics are diligently honed for a reason — but the ability to consistently attack the right pitches is every bit as valuable. Avoiding chasing while keying in on offerings you can drive greatly enhances your chances of squaring up a baseball.

Dillon Lawson, the new assistant hitting coach of the Boston Red Sox, is a huge proponent of a disciplined approach. The Louisville, Kentucky native views the optimization of swing decisions as an integral part of his job — one that now includes working alongside co-assistant hitting coach Ben Rosenthal and lead hitting coach Peter Fatse.

Prior to joining the Red Sox organization last year as its minor league hitting coordinator, the 39-year-old Lawson spent parts of five seasons with the New York Yankees, first as their minor league hitting coordinator from 2019-2021 and then as their major league hitting coach from 2022 until July 2023. He also tutored minor leaguer hitters for two seasons in the Houston Astros organization, in 2016 and 2018.

Lawson sat down to talk hitting at Fenway Park last weekend.

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David Laurila: There are swing coaches and there are more traditional hitting coaches. Where do you fit into that dynamic?

Dillon Lawson: “Whether it’s what I feel is right, or it’s just a sense of pride, I think we’re all trying to be the best hitting coaches we could possibly be. That means you’re able to help players in whatever way they need to be helped. Sometimes that’s with an approach. Sometimes it’s with confidence. Sometimes it’s a swing change, whether that’s with the load or the path. Some people need more power. Other people need more contact.

“In the minor leagues, with the whole department… let’s say you’ve got 10 hitting coaches all pushing the same direction, trying to help a large group of hitters. Then, here with Boston — same with the Yankees — a group of three [at the big league level] is nice, because the better the player is, the more difficult it is to get them just a half a percent better. Sometimes you have to get creative. Sometimes you have to dig deep into your toolkit. When you have the group all working together, working well together, you can help players more quickly.”

Laurila: Is the swing overemphasized in today’s game? Read the rest of this entry »


What Happened to Brett Baty, Man?

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

After a fairly brisk start, the pace of free agency has bogged down in the new year. The clog in the pipeline is Pete Alonso, the burly first baseman late of the New York Mets. Alonso’s free agent case fascinates me, as he represents a possibly rare intersection of fame and scarcity of skill, making him especially difficult to put a value on.

Given Alonso’s popularity in New York, the shortness of the Mets’ lineup even after signing Juan Soto, and the fact that owner Steve Cohen is so rich the Sumerians might not have invented currency if they’d known he was going to come along, a reunion makes a certain amount of sense. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Curtis Granderson

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2025 BBWAA Candidate: Curtis Granderson
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Curtis Granderson CF 47.2 34.7 40.9 1800 344 153 .249/.337/.465 113
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Like Sara Lee, nobody doesn’t like Curtis Granderson. A power-hitting center fielder who reached the 20-homer plateau 10 times, with a high of 43, he was a threat to steal a base during the first decade of his major league career as well. He made three All-Star teams and had a knack for turning up on winners, starting (and starring) for six teams that made the playoffs, including two that reached the World Series, while reaching the postseason twice as a reserve acquired for the stretch run. His penchant for strikeouts made him a somewhat streaky performer, but he earned a reputation within the game for being even-keeled, thoughtful, hard working, and generous — a clubhouse leader and a favorite of teammates, fans, and media. At a time when African-American participation in baseball was (and still is) on the wane, he wore his socks high every day as a tribute to Negro Leagues players, and channeled his charitable efforts towards increasing Black participation in the sport, an effort that has carried over into his retirement. Read the rest of this entry »