Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of February and my first in my new (and maybe very old, I’d have to check) time slot. I’m back in circulation after a bout of COVID (boo) among other things. Yesterday I did a piece on the contentious arbitration hearing of Corbin Burnes and what some fair contract offers for him might look like based on ZiPS (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukee-burnes-a-bridge/). Next up is a piece on Manny Machado’s plans to opt out. Anyway, on with the show…
2:04
Wireless Joe Jackson: How is it that Helton is going to walk into the HoF but Olerud got one-and-done’d with 4 votes? I am OUTRAGED! Or at least as outraged as possible regarding a HoF thing.
2:10
Jay Jaffe: It’s a bummer that Olerud went one-and-done on the 2011 ballot, but it’s not that hard to understand why. He came along as a candidate at a time when the electorate was rather stingy and largely paying no mind to advanced statistics. His raw totals of both hits (2,239) and home runs (255) did not read as Hall of Fame-caliber totals. A look at JAWS shows that he’s 24th at the position, just above contemporaries Jason Giambi and Will Clark (both one-and-done as well) but below Keith Hernandez. He’s 3.6 WAR behind Helton in career WAR and 7.6 WAR behind him in peak WAR — more than a win per year at his very best — and the 5.6-point gap between Helton (54.2, 0.8 above the Hall standard) and Olerud (48.6, 4.8 points below) is a big one where dreams of Cooperstown vanish into thin air.
2:10
Fan: Hello Jay, what are the chances Kenny Lofton gets voted in by the Veteran’s committee any time soon?
2:11
Jay Jaffe: very very low. It’s harder to get on to a ballot with the committee change and so long as this is hanging over his head it’s tough to see another candidate being bumped off the ballot to make room for him and thus drawing negative publicity to the process. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…
2:11
Guest: Merrifield starting at 2B in Toronto? Roster Resource has him starting over Espinal.
In the first game of the 2021 ALDS between the Rays and Red Sox, Randy Arozarena stole home. With two outs, two strikes, and a dangerous left-handed hitter at the plate, the defense wasn’t worried about the runner at third. Arozarena took advantage, sprinting for home as southpaw Josh Taylor began his methodical windup. The speedy rookie timed it perfectly, taking off as soon as Taylor turned around and launching into his slide by the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand.
It was the first straight steal of home in the playoffs since Jackie Robinson accomplished the feat in 1955. Arozarena also made history by becoming the first player to ever homer and steal home in the same postseason game. But his stolen base wasn’t just historic in and of itself, and his jump wasn’t the only thing he timed perfectly. By stealing home that October, he tied a beautiful bow atop one of the most impressive league-wide seasons in the history of stealing home plate. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s always nice to feel welcome. After excelling for the White Sox as a stopgap shortstop in 2022, Elvis Andrus will return to Chicago in 2023, this time as the team’s starting second baseman. Toward the end of the 2022 season, he made clear to reporters that he would welcome a return engagement and was open to shifting positions if need be. Apparently Rick Hahn was listening. The deal, pending a physical, is for a reported one year and $3 million. ESPN‘s Jeff Passan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the deal and terms, respectively. Amazingly, after 14 years in the big leagues, this was the first time Andrus had ever been a free agent.
Although Andrus didn’t make our Top 50 Free Agents list, he accrued more WAR in 2022 than 37 players who did, and he has, in my opinion, the greatest surname in all of baseball. Our crowdsourced predictions pegged him for two years and $20 million, so if one year and $3 million sounds like a lot less to you, then your math is spot on. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the only other teams reported to have interest in Andrus were the Red Sox and Angels. Read the rest of this entry »
The Arizona Diamondbacks currently have one of baseball’s best farm systems and an improved player development system is playing a big role in its success. Led by Josh Barfield since 2019, the department has seen the likes of Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas make their big league debuts in just the past year, and other high-ceiling prospects — Jordan Lawlar is among the notables — are coming fast. Moreover, the pipeline includes not just position players, but also promising pitchers. Playing in a powerhouse division that includes the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, the D-backs will be counting on their young core as they strive to reach the postseason for the first time since 2017.
Barfield discussed a few of the team’s top prospects, and a pair of under-the-radar players to keep an eye on, in a recent phone call.
———
David Laurila: You had a relatively short playing career. Looking through the lens of your current job, how might you have been better developed?
Josh Barfield: “That’s a good question. I think having a better understanding of what I did well, the areas that I struggled in, and spending more time on [the latter]. A lot of times, guys will… it’s always fun to work on the things you’re good at, but I think the best players — the most talented ones I’ve been around — have done a really good job of recognizing their weaknesses and attacking those areas on a daily basis. Offensively, defensively, whether it’s a movement efficiency… training today is just so much more individualized compared to 20 years ago when I was coming up.” Read the rest of this entry »
I didn’t really see the first pitch of LSU’s season. I was watching on TV, but the ball just sort of teleported from Paul Skenes’ right hand to Brady Neal’s glove. Maybe it was a trick of the lighting or a glitch in the stream. Or maybe it’s the fact that the enormous 20-year-old decided to start off his season with a 99 mph fastball.
Skenes looks like what he is: the Friday night starter for the no. 1 team in the country and a likely first-round draft pick. Not only is he one of the country’s top pitching prospects, but he can handle the bat as well, hitting .367/.453/.669 with 24 homers in 100 combined games over his first two collegiate seasons. He’s not what basketball types like to call a unicorn. Most college seasons feature some elite two-way player, a Brendan McKay or a Danny Hultzen or the like, trying to pitch and slug a blue-blood program to the national title and himself into the top 10 picks in the draft.
What makes Skenes unusual is how recently he started seriously considering baseball a real career opportunity. At 6-foot-6 and 247 pounds, he might look like he was born to throw 99 mph for a living. But this time last year, he was committed to quite a different vocation. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the USA World Baseball Classic roster’s so-so starting pitching, the difficulty of recruiting top pitchers for the tournament, and Japan’s staff, Meg’s college baseball weekend and Juan Soto sighting, Orioles owner John Angelos’s latest comments, and MLB’s new Economic Reform Committee, plus a Stat Blast (31:56) about the greatest players who were never the best player on their team and an observation about the spread of projected win totals in the AL and NL. Then they continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Milwaukee Brewers (41:34) with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Miami Marlins (1:21:34) with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, plus Past Blasts from 1971 (1:58:43) and a postscript (2:05:13).
Arbitration is by definition a contentious process, but even so, it’s difficult to recall a recent case that left a star player so vocal about the damage done to his relationship with his team like that of Corbin Burnes. Last week, the Brewers went to trial with the 2021 NL Cy Young winner over a difference of just under $750,000 and prevailed, after which Burnes sounded off over the team’s conduct during the hearing. In all likelihood, this marks the beginning of the end of his time in Milwaukee; it’s difficult to imagine him agreeing to any kind of deal that would delay his free agency after what just transpired.
The 28-year-old Burnes has been the majors’ most valuable pitcher over the past three seasons according to our version of WAR:
Among pitchers with at least 300 innings in that span, Burnes also owns the lowest FIP and K-BB% (26.9%, virtually tied with Scherzer), and is second in strikeout rate and ERA (again in a virtual tie with Scherzer). It’s been a pretty good run, to say the least. That said, his 2022 campaign couldn’t quite live up to the high standards he set in 2021, as his strikeout rate receded and his home run rate nearly tripled:
Corbin Burnes 2020-22
Season
IP
HR/9
K%
BB%
K-BB%
ERA
FIP
WAR
2020
59.2
0.30
36.7%
10.0%
26.7%
2.11
2.04
2.4
2021
167.0
0.38
35.6%
5.2%
30.4%
2.43
1.63
7.5
2022
202.0
1.02
30.5%
6.4%
24.1%
2.94
3.14
4.6
Yellow = led National League.
Even so, Burnes led the NL in strikeouts (243) and starts (33) and placed third in K-BB%, fourth in innings, fifth in WAR, eighth in FIP and 10th in ERA. He made the NL All-Star team for the second season in a row and received Cy Young votes for the third time, finishing seventh; one voter had him as high as second, two more in third, and a total of 12 (out of 30) considered him among the league’s top five. Read the rest of this entry »
The Rangers have made it rain in free agency for two years running. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom highlight their haul, but Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, and Nathan Eovaldi are no slouches either. Texas shopped in bulk in the luxury aisles of free agency, and that shopping vaulted the expectations higher. The team hasn’t won 70 games since 2019 but is broadly projected, whether by playoff odds or betting lines, to end up in the 80s this year and to compete for a playoff berth.
Until late last week, the Rangers were expected to do so while attempting the team-building equivalent of playing with one hand tied behind their back. Baseball teams are required to use nine different batters, but the Rangers were short a few. Their left field plans involved Bubba Thompson, Brad Miller, Ezequiel Duran, Josh H. Smith, non-roster invitees, duct tape, and a ouija board. There’s no polite way to say this: that’s bad. But the Rangers knew it, and they acted to address their shortfall by signing Robbie Grossman to a one-year deal worth at least $2 million, and up to $5 million depending on incentives. Read the rest of this entry »
Prospect Week continues with an update to the International Players section of The Board. Some of it is housekeeping, while some of it is scouting-driven and news-oriented.
Let’s begin with the housekeeping. For those of you who don’t care about this sort of thing and want to skip ahead, I’ve indicated below where the housekeeping ends. As you can see in the dropdown menu on the International Players tab, there has been a nomenclature change when the lists transition from 2019 to 2021. There was essentially no 2020 signing class because the pandemic pushed what was supposed to be the July 2nd 2020 class to January of 2021. It doesn’t appear that the international signing period calendar will ever return to the pre-pandemic July-through-May structure; the current format is either here to stay, or at some point we’ll get an international draft. We had previously referred to a given year’s signing period as its “July 2 Signing Period” because it ran across two calendar years, until the following May. If a prospect signed in April of 2015, for instance, he signed during the “2014 July 2 Signing Period.” Now that the signing period is basically flush with the calendar year, going forward we’ll refer to it as “20XX International Signing Period” on the prospect lists and “20XX International” on The Board. Capsules for players who signed in 2019 or earlier will still say “July 2nd Signing period, 20XX” until the prospects from that era are no longer part of the prospect population. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of February and my first in my new (and maybe very old, I’d have to check) time slot. I’m back in circulation after a bout of COVID (boo) among other things. Yesterday I did a piece on the contentious arbitration hearing of Corbin Burnes and what some fair contract offers for him might look like based on ZiPS (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukee-burnes-a-bridge/). Next up is a piece on Manny Machado’s plans to opt out. Anyway, on with the show…
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