What does it mean that a team is 55% likely to make the playoffs, or 45% likely? It sounds like it means it’ll be right on the cusp of the playoffs at year’s end — the kind of team that spends the last week of the year either sighing in relief at a narrow escape or ruing a few one-run losses that did it in.

Sure, that’s definitely true sometimes. Often, though, the numbers don’t work out quite so suspensefully. Sometimes, your 50% chance decays to zero or climbs to a near certainty far before any dramatic ending. For proof of this, look no further than the race for the AL Central, which went from toss-up to fait accompli over the first half of September.

On September 4, the Guardians had just finished getting their clocks cleaned by fellow AL playoff hopefuls. Over a ten-game span — seven against Seattle, three against Baltimore — they went 2–8, dropping their record to 68–64. In that same span, the Twins had gone 6–3, raising their record to an identical 68–64. Our playoff odds gave the Guardians the better chance at winning the AL Central, but it was close: 43% for Cleveland, 39% for Minnesota. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The return of Ozzie Albies didn’t last long. Out for three months due to a broken left foot that required surgery, the 25-year-old second baseman rejoined the Braves’ lineup on Friday, but he made it only about a game and a half before suffering a fractured right pinky that will sideline him for at least the remainder of the regular season. Once again, the defending champions will have to make do without a core player for some time.

After going 1-for-4 with a two-run double off the Phillies’ Nick Nelson in a 7–2 win on Friday night, Albies reached base twice against Aaron Nola on Saturday via a walk and a single. Upon tagging up and advancing from first base on an Eddie Rosario fly ball in the fourth inning, he slid into second headfirst, jamming his right hand into Jean Segura‘s foot as he did so. Albies remained in the game long enough to score on Ronald Acuña Jr.’s ensuing double but was replaced in the field by Vaughn Grissom at the start of the fifth.

Albies won’t need surgery, but he’ll need to wear the cast for which he was fitted on Saturday night for three weeks, after which the team will assess how soon he can return to action. If the Braves (91–55) don’t surpass the Mets (93–55) to win the NL East, or do so but fall behind the Cardinals (87–61) and don’t earn a first-round bye, they’ll start the playoffs on October 7, decreasing the likelihood that Albies is available for the Wild Card Series. If they do earn that bye, they wouldn’t play their first Division Series game until October 11, buying him more time.

Either way, it’s been a disappointing and frustrating season to this point for Albies, who in 64 games has hit just .247/.294/.409 with eight homers and a 93 wRC+ in 269 plate appearances. He began with a bang, homering six times in the Braves’ first 16 games, but hit for just a 70 wRC+ from that point until June 13. In a game against the Nationals that would mark the Braves’ 12th win in a 14-game winning streak, Albies hit an infield grounder via an awkward swing, then tripped while leaving the batter’s box and limped off the field. X-rays revealed a fracture in his left foot. He underwent surgery to stabilize the break two days later and didn’t begin a rehab assignment until September 1.

For the first eight weeks of Albies’ absence, the Braves patched things together at second base using Orlando Arcia, Phil Gosselin, and Robinson Canó, and they continued to win despite that trio’s subpar production. On August 10, when Arcia landed on the IL with a left hamstring strain, they recalled Grissom, a 21-year-old who placed third on our Braves top prospect list this spring, behind Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. An 11th-round 2019 pick out of Paul J. Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida (where he was teammates with the Tigers’ Riley Greene), Grissom began the season with High-A Rome, where he finished last year. Between Rome and Double-A Mississippi, he hit a combined .324/.405/.494 (146 wRC+) with 14 homers and 27 steals. As with Harris, the Braves decided to promote him straight from Double-A, and the gambit has paid off.

Grissom homered off Darwinzon Hernandez in his major league debut, and he’s continued to hit at a sizzling clip since. His 130 wRC+ is fourth on the Braves since the day of his debut:

It’s an unlikely group that’s been hitting the snot out of the ball lately, helping to offset the sagging production of Riley, Swanson, and Olson, who to be fair have done their shares of the heavy lifting at other times this season. The Braves have bashed out 5.42 runs per game since Grissom’s debut, going an MLB-best 26–9 (.743). It’s helped that the pitching staff has accompanied that outburst by holding opponents to an even 3.0 runs per game in the meantime.

For as impressive as Grissom’s production has been, sustaining it would appear to be a tall order unless he can consistently hit the ball harder. The combination of his .345 batting average on balls in play and 84.2 mph average exit velocity is an unlikely one, with only one major leaguer owning both a lower EV and higher BABIP over the course of at least 100 PA this year:

“Williams” is the Marlins’ Luke Williams, whose .354 BABIP is offset by a 31.9% strikeout rate and 83.3 mph average exit velocity, and who hasn’t been very productive overall:

All of the players with combinations of EV and BABIP that are similar to Grissom’s are either pulling it off within a small sample or play in Colorado or both (yikes, Kris Bryant). And already there are signs that the league is catching up to Grissom, as The Athletic’s David O’Brien noted:

#Braves rookie Vaughn Grissom hit .420 with a .660 slugging percentage and 1.123 OPS in his first 14 MLB games, including 12 wins. In 17 games since, he's hit .210 (13-for-62) with a .339 slugging percentage and .607 OPS. Braves are 10-7 in that stretch.

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 16, 2022

The good news is that Grissom’s 33% hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted ball events 95 mph or higher) and 34.1% sweet spot rate (the percentage of batted ball events with a launch angle in the 8–32 degree range) are both within a couple of points of the major league averages (35.8% for the former, 33% for the latter), and his 7.7% barrel rate is a full point above the average. His actual slash stats are well ahead of his .267 xBA and .433 xSLG, which is certainly ample production for a middle infielder, if not as eye-opening as the line he’s putting up.

On the other side of the ball, Grissom is fairly new to playing second base, and his defensive metrics — to the extent that we can put stock in them after 290 innings, which is admittedly a stretch — are a bit rough. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in his prospect report in June, the Braves drafted Grissom believing that he could stick at shortstop, and in the minors he’s played 161 games there, compared to 29 at third and 19 at second. He’s a bit in the red at the keystone via both DRS (-2) and RAA (-3), which jibes with Eric’s report of him being “back to projecting more in the 2B/3B area, and [possibly] en route to a super utility role” that would include time in the outfield rather than him being the shortstop in waiting if Swanson departs via free agency on the heels of a career-best season (115 wRC+, 5.7 WAR).

In the short term, the Braves will probably be fine with Grissom filling in for Albies, though the division race is tight, and the difference in paths between the winner (likely a first-round bye) and the runner-up (likely a series against the second Wild Card team, currently the Padres, with the winner playing the top-seeded Dodgers) is significant. Our Playoff Odds give the Mets the edge at holding onto their lead (67.3% to 32.7%) and at winning the World Series (16.5% to 11.8%), though it’s the Braves who will host the final regular-season matchup between the two teams, from September 30 to October 2. The NL East title remains up for grabs, and while losing Albies is a blow for the Braves, they won last year after losing Acuña for half a season. Neither the Mets nor any other team who crosses their path is likely to need a reminder.

A bit of an abbreviated power rankings this week since I’m in the middle of moving. There isn’t much movement in the standings to report on anyway; the best teams continue to coast into the playoffs, and just a handful of teams are still fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — its offense (wRC+) and its starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Astros joined the Dodgers as the second team to clinch a postseason berth last week and could lock up the AL West as soon as today. They might not be on the Dodgers’ level right now, but a few of their key players are heating up at exactly the right time. Justin Verlander made his return to the mound on Friday and pitched five scoreless innings against the A’s with nine strikeouts. In that same game, Yordan Alvarez blasted three home runs; he’s collected 14 hits and six homers in his last seven games. They have plenty of strength throughout the roster, but those two players will likely carry the team deep into October if Houston is going to make a run at another World Series appearance. Read the rest of this entry »

The chase for history is on, and New York City is awash with excitement. I’m speaking, obviously, of the Mets’ pursuit of the modern era record for times hit by pitch by one team in one season. Mets hitters have been plunked 102 times this year, three shy of the record, and have 14 games left in which to overtake last year’s Reds for the all-time lead.

The full list is fun, because two things immediately become apparent. First, most of the high historical HBP totals came in the past five to seven years. And second, whenever a team shows up that isn’t from the mid-2010s or later, it’s immediately obvious which historical outlier is responsible: a Craig Biggio here, a Chase Utley there, a Jason Kendall over in the corner.

The Mets are a more well-rounded lineup, with six players being hit by 10 or more pitches this year. No. 102 came on Sunday afternoon, when Pete Alonso took a fastball off the elbow, causing a benches-clearing incident and earning warnings for both dugouts. The estimable Ron Darling, on the mic for WPIX, sensed that Alonso wasn’t angry because he thought Johan Oviedo hit him intentionally, but because it was the seventh time in that weekend’s four-game series that a Met had been hit. In fact, he said, he couldn’t remember one time this season when a Met had worn a pitch and it looked malicious.

So I went back and watched all 102 Mets HBPs, and he’s right. Read the rest of this entry »

Dave Raymond has fond memories of June 13, 2012. Then in his final year as a broadcaster for the Houston Astros, the now TV play-by-play voice of the Texas Rangers got to call a historic pitching performance — and it wasn’t even his biggest thrill of the day. Prior to the game, he was in the presence of a legend.

Raymond had an inkling that the season would be his last with the Astros. He was in the final year of his contract, and an ownership transition was resulting in numerous changes throughout the organization. With his future up in the air, Raymond decided that he was going to “hit all the high notes,” making sure to enjoy aspects of his job that can sometimes be taken for granted. That’s how he met Willie Mays.

“In San Francisco, Willie was always down in the clubhouse, just available to chat,” recalled Raymond, who graduated from Stanford University before becoming a broadcaster. “I’d never wanted to bother him all those years, but I decided to make it a point to talk to him, whether that was for five minutes, 10 minutes, or whatever. So I went to the ballpark early, hoping to ask him some questions and hear a few stories. For instance, he’d hit his 500th home run at the Astrodome, and they’d brought him a cake afterwards.”

The hoped for five-to-10 minutes ended up being far longer. Mays held court for hours, to the point where Raymond had to tell the iconic Hall of Famer that he needed to head upstairs, as the game was about to start. As he was getting up to leave, he added that the Astros would be returning to San Francisco right after the All-Star break, and maybe they could talk again. Mays responded by saying, “Well, you’ve got to come over to my house then.” Read the rest of this entry »

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat! It’s a crisp fall day in Brooklyn, appropriate for the September stretch run.

2:02	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today on Kevin Gausman https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fip-or-flop-why-kevin-gausman-isnt-part-of…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: yesterday I wrote about Trayce Thompson https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trayce-thompson-makes-a-splash-as-the-dodg…, and the day before that the very slumping Juan Soto https://blogs.fangraphs.com/juan-soto-isnt-having-a-juan-soto-year/

2:04	Jay Jaffe: This really is a bit of an unintended consequence of the way MLB came up with the new format. Zach Crizer wrote about it at Yahoo just the other day https://sports.yahoo.com/race-for-last-how-the-new-mlb-playoff-format-…

2:07	Jay Jaffe: My instinct tells me the odds are better by facing a weaker Cleveland team even if I’m on the road, but I worry about getting too cute by trying to steer myself to one opponent rather than another, and my gut tells me that keeping the home games might be better.

Read the rest of this entry »

There are far better ways to evaluate offensive performance than the Triple Crown stats or whether a player leads the league in all three categories or not. But winning a Triple Crown, though not a gold star evaluative measure, is a lot of fun, and following a Triple Crown run is a family-friendly good time. It’s a rare feat to accomplish in baseball history, and while increased competitiveness and larger leagues make pulling it off more difficult, it can be achieved in both high-offense and low-offense seasons. It also puts you in the company of a lot of baseball greats, with every AL/NL Triple Crown winner having a plaque in Cooperstown except for Miguel Cabrera, who will almost certainly have his own five years after he retires.

Both Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt look to be in realistic scenarios to win the Triple Crown. To get the exact projections, let’s look at them individually, starting with Judge, who has the simpler scenario.

(To get the probabilities, ZiPS uses the rest-of-season projections for every player, sims out a million seasons, and sees whose lines result in Triple Crown wins, if any. To get a more accurate gauge of what the probabilities are, ZiPS does not assume that the rest-of-season projection is necessarily the underlying ability of every player. In the case of Judge, for example, ZiPS estimates his underlying ability to hit homers over a three-week period as a distribution rather than a point. The generalized model ZiPS uses effectively replicates the number of streaks and slumps in reality over a short period; there’s a reason we have more consecutive hit streaks, homer streaks, and scoreless inning streaks than one would expect from a simple exercise of binomial hijinks.) Read the rest of this entry »