The Detroit Tigers entered this season with plenty of reason to be hopeful for a shift in the franchise’s fortunes. After a stretch of four straight playoff appearances from 2011–14, they entered a long rebuilding phase that included an ugly, 114-loss season in ‘19. Last year, they showed real signs of progress; after winning just eight games in April, they went 69-66 through the rest of the season and graduated a bunch of their top pitching prospects into the majors. They had an aggressive offseason, signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez and trading for Austin Meadows, and were set to debut their top position player prospects, too.

Things haven’t gone according to plan so far. The Tigers currently have the worst record in the American League and a big reason why is the disappointing performances of their young starting pitchers. Both Casey Mize and Matt Manning have been sidelined with injuries, and Beau Brieske and Joey Wentz have stumbled through tough big league debuts:

It’s far too early to make definitive statements about any of these young pitchers, but their struggles have definitely put a damper on the Tigers’ aim to break out of their rebuilding cycle this year. If there’s one reason for fans in Detroit to be encouraged, though, it’s the early season success of Tarik Skubal. Read the rest of this entry »

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat!

2:02	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece up today on the Blue Jays infield’s underachievement this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/. And I had a piece about Mookie Betts heating up a couple days ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-is-mostly-fine/

2:04

Jay Jaffe: I’ve also got a 5 1/2 year old who just came home from school with a fever after getting Not Enough Sleep last night — thankfully everybody in the household has tested negative in the past 24 hours, which is a start — but we’re going to see how long I can push this chat without interruptions. Please bear with me.

2:07

Jay Jaffe: They should probably give him a break from closing games until he starts pitching better; he’s allowed a run in each of his past four outings. I haven’t looked at his numbers closely, but I do wonder about whether his release point is off, which is something i noted in connection with last year’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-…

Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets lost another starting pitcher on Thursday, as the team announced that the pain that forced Max Scherzer from his start Wednesday has been diagnosed as a moderate to high grade oblique sprain; the anticipated timetable for Scherzer’s return is six to eight weeks. After throwing a slider to Albert Pujols, Scherzer was in visible discomfort and quickly pulled the plug himself, sparing Buck Showalter the most dangerous part of a manager’s job: telling Max Scherzer to hit the showers:

The loss of Scherzer comes at a time the Mets are already down two other starting pitchers (three if you count Joey Lucchesi‘s loss to Tommy John surgery, which I’m not). Most notably, Jacob deGrom’s 2022 season has yet to begin due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Tylor Megill is also currently on the IL due to biceps tendinitis diagnosed after the worst start of his professional career. Luckily, there’s reason to be hopeful in both cases. The most recent imaging of deGrom’s scapula indicated it is healing effectively, raising hopes that the ace’s return isn’t too far off. Meanwhile, Megill’s MRI didn’t reveal anything darker than a case of tendinitis, and he’s already scheduled to play catch today:

Jacob deGrom's MRI and CT scan revealed "considerable healing of the stress reaction on his scapula," Mets say.

He has been cleared to begin loading and strengthening his shoulder and will be "re-imaged in approximately three weeks."

— Deesha (@DeeshaThosar) April 26, 2022

Read the rest of this entry »

At 20-18, the Blue Jays are already eight games back in a division that they were projected to win. While they don’t lack for reasons as to why they’ve yet to take full flight, an infield that has yet to live up to high expectations is a significant factor. On the left side, Matt Chapman hasn’t found his footing since arriving from Oakland, and Bo Bichette has been in a replacement-level funk. Cavan Biggio, who was expected to platoon at second base after being bumped off third by Chapman’s arrival, has not only lost his job to Santiago Espinal (who’s been very good) but on Monday was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo after coming off the COVID-19 injured list. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has yet to replicate last year’s MVP-caliber form.

Guerrero is hitting .284/.368/.470 for a 142 wRC+, which while down 24 points from last year’s AL-leading mark, is still plenty potent. Even for a team that has just three other regulars with a wRC+ of 100 or better — namely center fielder George Springer (139), catcher/DH Alejandro Kirk (100), and Espinal (125) — he’s far from the Blue Jays’ biggest problem, and in the interest of keeping this article short of a novella, we’ll save any analysis of him for another day. On the other hand, Bichette (.242/.283/.363, 86 wRC+) and Chapman (.185/.272/.362, 84 wRC+), while not the offense’s least productive regulars — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (74 wRC+), Teoscar Hernández (61), and Raimel Tapia (53 wRC+) have been worse — were expected to rank among the majors’ best at their respective positions; the former was sixth among shortstops in our preseason positional power rankings series, the latter seventh. Read the rest of this entry »

This Wednesday, Corbin Burnes had a forgettable start. In six innings, he allowed four runs and struck out five while walking none. The scoring came courtesy of two home runs, a three-run shot by Austin Riley and a solo homer by Marcell Ozuna. Burnes lasted six innings, and while the Brewers ended up winning the game 7-6 in extras, it wasn’t exactly the kind of start you expect from the defending NL Cy Young winner.

Last year, Burnes was downright electric en route to winning the award. He led the NL in ERA at 2.43, and his ERA was significantly higher than his 1.63 FIP. He struck out 35.6% of the batters he faced while walking only 5.2%. He did it in only 28 starts and 167 innings, which raised questions about the trade-off between transcendent pitching and bulk innings.

If you only looked at his first and most recent starts of 2022, you might think the same thing was happening again. You’ve already heard about the most recent one; in his first start, he went five innings against the Cubs, allowed three earned runs, and struck out only four while walking three. Sure, the runs were uncharacteristic, but five and six inning starts? We’ve seen that before. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 975

On this episode, we chat about the AL West-leading Astros before getting help from an astrophysicist as we try to understand why the baseball continues to act so strangely.

• To start the show, David Laurila welcomes Julia Morales, reporter for AT&T SportsNet Southwest and the Houston Astros. Morales has been covering the team for a decade and shares what it was like to go through the lean years as well as the championship run, and how the rise of analytics has changed her job as a broadcaster. We also hear about going inside the Green Monster and stories involving Jose Altuve, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Peña, A.J. Hinch, Dusty Baker, and more. [2:44]
• After that, Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens welcome Dr. Meredith Wills, who first appeared on episode 909, back to the show. Dr. Wills has continued her research into what is going on with the baseball and shares her findings on what she is calling an “unforced error.” We learn how humidors can affect baseballs differently — with the help of a leftover food analogy — and what could be causing dents in the ball. Finally, Ben and Dan ask the good doctor what she would do to fix the league’s equipment issues if she were given total control. [34:47]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 71 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the rabidity of opossums and Eugenio Suárez‘s keepie-uppie skills, then discuss the White Sox offense and Tony La Russa’s rationale for batting Andrew Vaughn ninth, Max Scherzer’s oblique injury, and the possibility of a Juan Soto trade, before meeting major leaguers (53:30) Logan Gillaspie (Orioles) and Brandon Hughes (Cubs), and Stat Blasting (1:06:26) about the rapid Tyler/Taylor takeover of MLB player names.

Audio intro: We Are Scientists, “I Don’t Bite”
Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., “Tyler”

Link to the Human Society on opossums
Link to Wildlife Habitat Council on opossums
Link to Opossum Society FAQ
Link to press-box opossum pic
Link to story about press-box opossum
Link to possum vs. opossum definitions
Link to Reddit thread on Suárez
Link to La Russa comment on Vaughn
Link to Tango’s response
Link to Ben on batting pitchers eighth
Link to Jeremy Frank on Garcia
Link to Frank on Garcia again
Link to Scherzer news
Link to deGrom update
Link to Olney on Soto
Link to report on Soto extension offer
Link to Mark Feinsand on trade candidates
Link to video of Gillaspie’s debut
Link to MASN on Gillaspie’s debut
Link to Camden Chat on Gillaspie
Link to 2018 Gillaspie signing story
Link to FB group thread on Gillaspie
Link to Ben on the Salina Stockade
Link to The Only Rule Is it Has to Work
Link to story on Hughes’s debut
Link to video of Hughes’s debut
Link to Hughes fun fact
Link to Longenhagen on Hughes
Link to Tyler Holton story
Link to Stat Blast data on player names
Link to SSA baby names site
Link to The Bob Emergency, Part 1
Link to The Bob Emergency, Part II
Link to Tyler Kepner on Tylers
Link to Stathead on worst second-half tOPS+
Link to Stathead on second-half ERA rises
Link to 1995 article on Green, P. 1
Link to 1995 article on Green, P. 2

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When a batter steps up to the plate against Framber Valdez, there are a couple things that can happen. The first (and most embarrassing) outcome is a strikeout. It doesn’t happen too frequently, thankfully – Valdez’s current strikeout rate of 18.9% is on the low side – but still, it hurts to have stood there without positively impacting the game whatsoever. How about a walk to ease the pain? Valdez isn’t exactly a control artist, and his current walk rate of 10.1% is on the high end. A free trip to first makes for a satisfied hitter – no further explanation needed. But a potentially greater outcome is a ball in play, which constitute 69.2% of Valdez’s allowed outcomes. That’s a lot of contact! Balls in play include outs, certainly, but also the doubles, triples, and home runs that galvanize batters and fans alike. No other outcome is as unpredictable yet rewarding.

Based on this, you might think hitters enjoy teeing off against Valdez. There’s one problem, though. So far this season, their collective groundball rate against him is a whopping 69.0%. Their collective fly ball rate, meanwhile, is a mere 6.9%. Not that a grounder can’t become a hit, but without an element of luck, it’s a single at best. And when hitters have attempted to circumvent that issue by swinging for the fences… well, they haven’t succeeded. Valdez has allowed just eight fly balls this season. It’s his world they’re living in. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Dan Szymborski: And we are here as this is a chat!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The dead ball helps him a bit. His cutter’s generally been working, and his peripheral numbers have improved too. He’s had runs where his cutter’s been working and he’s been effective, but he has had trouble keeping that up

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in fact, he has better advanced hitting stats better than most guys playing that poorly

Read the rest of this entry »

Steven Wilson is a 27-year-old rookie with a captivating pitch profile. His primary offering is a riding, mid-90s fastball delivered with good extension, and from a low vertical approach angle. His breaking ball is a bullet slider that’s he honed with the help of technology. Wilson also has a Vulcan change in his repertoire, although it mostly stays in his back pocket. By and large, the 6-foot-3 right-hander is thriving as a two-pitch pitcher.

An eighth-round senior-sign by San Diego in 2018, Wilson has come out of the Padres bullpen 15 times this season and thrown the same number of innings. With the exception of his most-recent outing — three earned runs allowed in two-thirds of an inning — he’s been very good. The Santa Clara University product has allowed 12 hits, issued five walks, and fanned 17 batters. He’s been credited with three wins and one save.

Wilson — No. 9 on our newly-released San Diego Padres Top Prospects list — discussed his pitch mix when the Friars visited Pittsburgh at the end of April.

——-

David Laurila: How do you get guys out? Can you answer that question without the cliche, “attacking the strike zone”?

Steven Wilson: “Well, that helps. But for me, it’s typically playing the fastball up in the zone, and then throwing a slider off of that. My slider goes down. It has more vertical break — more drop — than most sliders, and less horizontal than most sliders. A lot of people think it’s a curveball, but if you watch it in slo-mo, it actually has bullet spin like a slider. So yeah, fastballs up top and sliders down. Sometimes a changeup down.” Read the rest of this entry »