Archive for 2023 ZiPS Projections

2023 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot. Rounding out the 2023 projections? The Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Rays lineup presents a tale of two offenses. On the good side is a team with one of the best 2B/3B/SS combinations in the majors. Yandy Díaz had a monster 2022 season, basically as offensively amazing as it’s possible for a corner infielder with below-average power to be. ZiPS is low on Díaz relative to Steamer and The Bat, and his projection here is still excellent. It’s a real shame that he’s somehow still underrated in the eyes of fans, even in an age when most people realize on-base percentage is a thing. Díaz isn’t quite Eddie Yost or Eddie Joost in terms of pure walk rate, but he’s a mold-breaker along similar lines. With Isaac Paredes needing at-bats of his own and Curtis Mead aggressively pushing his way up from the minors, the Rays will almost certainly continue to use Díaz at multiple positions. I’d be happy with any of those three as my starting third baseman.

Brandon Lowe had a disappointing, injury-filled season, but it would take some severe recency bias to forgot that he was an elite second baseman in 2021, which wasn’t exactly an eon ago. Wanderkind Franco had his own injury problems in 2022, but he’s still very young, certainly young enough that you shouldn’t fret about it too much (yet). With some luck in terms of health, the Rays will have one of baseball’s best infields even if they get very little out of first base. Unfortunately, the computer doesn’t expect the Rays to get much out of first base. ZiPS has never been in on Jonathan Aranda, even after his most promising minor league season yet. Given the offensive explosion in the minors, ZiPS doesn’t translate his .318/.394/.521, 18-homer season for Durham as well as you might think, only having him at a .276/.341/.420, 12-homer season. Combine that with a poor debut and you can see why ZiPS really hopes that Aranda’s future is at second, not first. The player ZiPS does like is Kyle Manzardo, who gets a translation of .267/.346/.456 for his age-21 season, his first full pro campaign. Manzardo has a very good chance to be the top first baseman on the ZiPS Top 100 Prospects list next month. Read the rest of this entry »


2023 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

The Giants are a good team. They certainly didn’t feel like one for much of the middle portion of last season, but after a disappointing home sweep by the rival Dodgers in mid-September, they mopped up the Rockies and Diamondbacks and banked enough wins to get back to the .500 mark. Bringing in Michael Conforto as a decent starter/reclamation project meaningfully upgrades the outfield, and the Mitch Haniger signing was practically a bargain for a player who could be a top-tier designated hitter again if healthy. There’s a real solidity to the roster; no one on the infield has an impressive projection, but they have a lot of those guys on hand. Without even being aggressive, there are six or seven players on the team who could take one of the non-first base infield jobs and be at least passably adequate in the role. The problem here and in the outfield, however, is that the Giants can’t combine their 1.5-to-2.5 WAR guys together into three-to-four WAR players like piles of Legos. You could go full horror movie and try to sew David Villar to Wilmer Flores, but you won’t get an All-Star in the mix, just a couple of very angry players, an arbitration case, and a visit from the local constabulary. Platoons don’t really count here, either, as you can’t get a thousand plate appearances from a single platoon!

It’s not that Giants didn’t try. They were, after all, very close to inking Aaron Judge to a monster deal, talked seriously with pretty much every big free agent hitter out there, and were even the prospective employer of Carlos Correa before all of the drama that ended with the star shortstop returning to the Twins. So unlike a team with a need that it simply didn’t address, the Giants were cognizant of the weak part of their team — the lack of a big star to build around offensively — and tried very hard to correct that situation. The problem is that when the season starts, there’s no credit given for attempted WAR. Whether you fail to land a star after giving it the ol’ college try or because you’re the Cincinnati Reds, the result is the same: that player wearing someone else’s uniform. Read the rest of this entry »


2023 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

If you’re wondering why Steve Cohen was willing to spend the GDP of a Pacific island nation on the 2023 Mets, you’re looking at the most compelling reason. The Phillies made the splash by bringing in Trea Turner, but that roster simply doesn’t cause terror in the eyes of their opponents. This one does.

What makes the Braves especially scary? A lot of times when you see a lineup this good, it’s a team full of guys nearing free agency, sure to depart due to the cost of keeping the band together. But these aren’t The Beatles of Abbey Road or Let It Be; Atlanta is still in the Revolver phase. Dansby Swanson was the one guy who departed, and though Vaughn Grissom is a projected downgrade, he still looks like a league-average player, which the Braves will be perfectly content with. In any case, Kyle Wright got Shelby Miller as his top comp, so maybe they can trade him for a new Swanson at some point!

Like the Mariners, the Braves do have that one unfortunate spot in left field. The combination of Eddie Rosario and assorted others feels out of place with the rest of the lineup, as if the Braves suddenly forgot the DH position existed and had to scramble internally once the local press noted that Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo didn’t sound like the name of a real player. As such, it would be nice if they added another outfielder, simply for depth, though it’s not strictly necessary unless an emergency situation happens, such as the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. or Michael Harris II to injury. Yes, the Braves are an elite team with a lineup hole, but with players in the top tier at catcher, first, third, center field, and right field, and certainly a chance of that at second, this is a filthy batting order regardless.

Pitchers

The rotation isn’t as exciting as the lineup, especially after Max Fried and Spencer Strider, but the Braves get some very solid projections here. There are questions about the three pitchers in the back end of the rotation: can Wright repeat? Does Charlie Morton have a bounceback left? Can Mike Soroka stay healthy?

ZiPS is cautiously optimistic about all three of them, but the projections do like quite a few of the pitchers the Braves have in reserve. It sees Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder as legitimate major league starters and has a lot of positive math-generated feelings about Jared Shuster and Kolby Allard. Huascar Ynoa would have been included in that final group of reinforcements if not for Tommy John surgery already all but ending his 2023.

Even with the loss of Tyler Matzek to Tommy John surgery, the bullpen remains incredibly deep. Here’s a game to play: go down our depth chart for the Braves and find the names that ZiPS sees with an ERA+ under 100.

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You don’t get a reliever ZiPS doesn’t like — or even one with a projected ERA+ under 110 — until you get down to the eighth man on the depth chart, Dennis Santana. Go farther down and there’s still Nick Anderson (projected ERA+ of 111), Jesse Chavez (102), Jackson Stephens (106), Seth Elledge (100), Victor Vodnik (104), and Michael Tonkin (107) to go. The Gwinnett Stripers might have the 20th-best bullpen in the majors in 2023.

It’s not just ZiPS liking Atlanta because Alex Anthopoulos secretly deposits gold into my accounts in the Caymans; Steamer also ranks the Braves as having the top bullpen in baseball. The WAR projection on the depth chart would have been even better but for the fact that ZiPS uses leverage index and automatically had to reduce the projected leverage index of some of the pitchers, as there just weren’t enough high-leverage appearances to go around for everyone.

The Braves ought to be one of the teams competing to lead the majors in wins in 2023. And ZiPS believes they have the highest floor of all the reasonable contenders — the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Astros. This is an excellent team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Austin Riley R 26 3B 636 566 89 156 32 2 35 104 53 154 1 1
Ronald Acuña Jr. R 25 RF 577 496 98 136 25 1 29 79 68 135 28 9
Michael Harris II L 22 CF 618 572 90 157 36 4 22 93 35 143 24 4
Matt Olson L 29 1B 654 564 88 146 35 0 36 110 77 143 1 1
Sean Murphy R 28 C 479 420 60 105 26 1 20 73 45 112 1 1
Ozzie Albies B 26 2B 576 529 85 143 32 4 22 81 39 101 11 5
Travis d’Arnaud R 34 C 366 335 45 89 19 2 13 54 23 81 0 1
Vaughn Grissom R 22 SS 582 524 79 133 23 2 12 74 39 99 16 4
Marcell Ozuna R 32 LF 446 403 55 99 19 0 21 66 39 105 3 1
Orlando Arcia R 28 2B 390 354 44 85 16 0 12 50 32 75 3 2
Hoy Park L 27 3B 445 384 55 87 15 2 9 52 52 116 10 3
Mitchell Tolman L 29 2B 410 363 48 84 18 3 7 49 34 103 4 2
Jordan Luplow R 29 RF 298 258 40 54 14 1 15 47 36 76 4 2
Robbie Grossman B 33 LF 511 436 57 100 20 2 13 62 65 131 9 3
Kevin Pillar R 34 CF 369 341 52 87 17 2 13 51 18 68 5 3
Tyler White화이트 R 32 DH 395 336 36 79 18 1 10 45 52 92 2 1
Delino DeShields R 30 CF 419 355 46 76 13 2 3 34 55 121 19 6
Sam Hilliard L 29 LF 442 396 55 80 15 3 17 57 42 149 9 2
Luke Waddell L 24 SS 170 155 19 41 8 0 3 17 13 27 1 2
Joe Dunand R 27 3B 379 342 33 70 17 1 7 43 26 126 2 1
Eli White R 29 CF 336 301 41 64 10 2 8 38 28 106 14 3
Ryan Casteel R 32 C 289 264 28 57 11 1 13 39 22 96 0 1
Cody Milligan L 24 CF 509 452 65 108 19 3 2 41 49 116 9 4
Joe Hudson R 32 C 175 156 15 30 4 0 5 20 16 60 0 1
Braden Shewmake L 25 SS 317 296 36 69 12 2 8 35 17 75 4 1
Alex Dickerson L 33 RF 352 320 39 76 16 2 12 45 26 88 1 1
Pat Valaika R 30 2B 418 387 41 88 17 0 9 43 26 112 1 1
Chadwick Tromp R 28 C 261 246 28 57 12 0 9 33 13 68 0 1
Ehire Adrianza B 33 3B 202 178 24 42 8 1 3 22 18 43 1 1
Travis Demeritte R 28 RF 371 335 44 72 17 2 12 44 33 135 5 1
Jesse Franklin V L 24 RF 312 283 31 58 16 2 13 45 20 109 6 2
Justin Dean R 26 CF 391 351 45 72 12 3 5 40 30 139 14 4
Cal Conley B 23 SS 500 458 69 104 17 5 10 53 28 126 14 5
Cade Bunnell L 26 SS 445 386 48 70 17 3 11 45 54 202 2 1
Yariel Gonzalez B 29 SS 400 369 39 86 14 0 10 45 26 96 3 1
Hernan Perez 페레즈 R 32 2B 320 299 36 70 14 0 7 36 18 84 9 2
Eddie Rosario L 31 LF 411 382 47 93 18 1 13 54 24 80 5 1
Robinson Cano L 40 DH 237 223 23 54 12 0 5 26 12 52 0 1
Arden Pabst R 28 C 203 194 15 35 7 1 5 22 7 79 0 1
Ryan Goins L 35 SS 336 310 26 68 12 1 3 27 22 103 1 1
Chris Sharpe R 27 CF 378 334 42 64 20 1 6 42 32 126 6 3
Landon Stephens R 25 LF 451 400 44 78 16 1 16 58 40 182 2 2
Joshua Fuentes R 30 3B 400 380 41 79 14 1 8 41 15 126 1 1
Beau Philip R 24 3B 419 378 41 69 11 1 8 37 35 148 6 3
Hudson Potts R 24 1B 372 346 35 71 18 0 11 46 20 123 1 1
Drew Campbell L 25 CF 379 353 41 76 11 3 7 38 21 102 6 4
Drew Lugbauer L 26 1B 501 453 50 85 22 0 21 64 43 225 0 1
Greyson Jenista L 26 RF 400 364 40 71 12 1 14 46 32 166 2 2
Tyler Tolve L 22 C 308 282 33 55 9 2 9 37 20 111 3 1
Javier Valdes R 24 C 284 248 29 58 11 1 7 38 23 66 1 1
Brandol Mezquita R 21 RF 424 383 39 80 11 3 3 40 29 148 7 4
Bryson Horne L 24 1B 398 374 34 81 15 1 8 41 20 118 2 1
Hendrik Clementina R 26 C 328 309 25 61 8 0 11 39 14 127 0 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Austin Riley 636 .276 .347 .525 131 .249 .321 -2 4.8 .370
Ronald Acuña Jr. 577 .274 .371 .504 133 .230 .322 5 4.5 .374
Michael Harris II 618 .274 .324 .467 110 .192 .332 7 4.4 .339
Matt Olson 654 .259 .353 .512 129 .254 .286 6 4.2 .365
Sean Murphy 479 .250 .336 .460 112 .210 .295 5 3.8 .343
Ozzie Albies 576 .270 .321 .471 110 .200 .298 1 3.2 .337
Travis d’Arnaud 366 .266 .322 .451 105 .185 .315 2 2.4 .333
Vaughn Grissom 582 .254 .324 .374 88 .120 .293 -4 1.9 .308
Marcell Ozuna 446 .246 .314 .449 102 .203 .282 -1 1.2 .328
Orlando Arcia 390 .240 .303 .387 84 .147 .273 3 1.2 .300
Hoy Park 445 .227 .321 .346 80 .120 .301 3 1.2 .296
Mitchell Tolman 410 .231 .310 .355 79 .124 .304 4 1.1 .294
Jordan Luplow 298 .209 .312 .446 101 .236 .234 2 1.1 .327
Robbie Grossman 511 .229 .335 .374 91 .144 .298 1 1.0 .314
Kevin Pillar 369 .255 .304 .431 95 .176 .285 -2 1.0 .315
Tyler White 395 .235 .339 .384 95 .149 .295 0 0.7 .320
Delino DeShields 419 .214 .323 .287 67 .073 .316 2 0.6 .281
Sam Hilliard 442 .202 .281 .384 77 .182 .274 7 0.6 .287
Luke Waddell 170 .265 .324 .374 88 .110 .304 1 0.6 .304
Joe Dunand 379 .205 .274 .322 60 .117 .301 8 0.5 .265
Eli White 336 .213 .292 .339 69 .126 .299 1 0.5 .280
Ryan Casteel 289 .216 .280 .413 84 .197 .284 -5 0.3 .298
Cody Milligan 509 .239 .316 .308 70 .069 .317 0 0.3 .281
Joe Hudson 175 .192 .269 .314 57 .122 .275 3 0.3 .259
Braden Shewmake 317 .233 .278 .368 72 .135 .286 -2 0.3 .280
Alex Dickerson 352 .238 .304 .413 91 .175 .291 -3 0.2 .310
Pat Valaika 418 .227 .275 .341 65 .114 .297 3 0.2 .269
Chadwick Tromp 261 .232 .272 .390 76 .159 .284 -4 0.1 .286
Ehire Adrianza 202 .236 .313 .343 77 .107 .295 -2 0.0 .292
Travis Demeritte 371 .215 .288 .385 79 .170 .319 -1 0.0 .294
Jesse Franklin V 312 .205 .269 .413 80 .208 .280 0 0.0 .291
Justin Dean 391 .205 .284 .299 58 .094 .324 2 0.0 .263
Cal Conley 500 .227 .280 .352 69 .124 .292 -6 -0.1 .275
Cade Bunnell 445 .181 .285 .326 65 .145 .341 -5 -0.1 .274
Yariel Gonzalez 400 .233 .285 .352 71 .119 .289 -6 -0.1 .278
Hernan Perez 320 .234 .278 .351 68 .117 .303 -3 -0.2 .275
Eddie Rosario 411 .243 .285 .398 82 .154 .277 -4 -0.4 .293
Robinson Cano 237 .242 .283 .363 72 .121 .295 0 -0.4 .279
Arden Pabst 203 .180 .212 .304 37 .124 .273 3 -0.4 .221
Ryan Goins 336 .219 .269 .294 52 .074 .319 -3 -0.7 .250
Chris Sharpe 378 .192 .276 .311 58 .120 .287 -3 -0.7 .263
Landon Stephens 451 .195 .282 .360 71 .165 .307 -3 -0.7 .283
Joshua Fuentes 400 .208 .243 .313 48 .105 .289 4 -0.8 .241
Beau Philip 419 .183 .258 .280 45 .098 .275 3 -0.9 .243
Hudson Potts 372 .205 .253 .353 61 .147 .283 2 -0.9 .262
Drew Campbell 379 .215 .262 .323 57 .108 .283 -4 -1.0 .256
Drew Lugbauer 501 .188 .263 .375 69 .188 .309 -1 -1.0 .276
Greyson Jenista 400 .195 .263 .349 63 .154 .310 -1 -1.1 .267
Tyler Tolve 308 .195 .256 .337 58 .142 .284 -14 -1.4 .260
Javier Valdes 284 .234 .324 .371 87 .137 .291 -25 -1.5 .308
Brandol Mezquita 424 .209 .276 .277 50 .068 .332 1 -1.5 .249
Bryson Horne 398 .217 .259 .326 56 .110 .294 -1 -1.5 .256
Hendrik Clementina 328 .197 .238 .330 51 .133 .292 -12 -1.6 .247

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Austin Riley Vern Stephens Whitey Kurowski Jim Ray Hart
Ronald Acuña Jr. Earl Torgeson Kal Daniels Dave Winfield
Michael Harris II Vada Pinson Claudell Washington Bobby Tolan
Matt Olson David Ortiz Mark Teixeira Roger Maris
Sean Murphy Devin Mesoraco Miguel Montero Jason Castro
Ozzie Albies Robin Yount Dickie Thon Pie Traynor
Travis d’Arnaud Babe Phelps Terry Steinbach Ferrell Anderson
Vaughn Grissom Tony Fernandez Edgar Renteria Alan Trammell
Marcell Ozuna Tommie Reynolds Babe Dahlgren Bubba Trammell
Orlando Arcia Gene Robertson Ken Boswell Benny Valenzuela
Hoy Park Don Eaddy Dave Edler Daniel Muno
Mitchell Tolman Stubby Clapp John Powers Ryan Pineda
Jordan Luplow Greg Vaughn Chris Young Bob Hamelin
Robbie Grossman Kosuke Fukudome Bobby Del Greco George Burns
Kevin Pillar Carl Reynolds Jack Tobin Jody Gerut
Tyler White Ed Bouchee Hank Thompson Denis Menke
Delino DeShields Jason McDonald Quintin Berry Gregor Blanco
Sam Hilliard Louie Meadows Brad Tyler Bob Speake
Luke Waddell Julio Perez Neil Sellers Andres Forbes
Joe Dunand Mark Threlkeld John Lung Chad Spann
Eli White Herm Winningham Gale Wade Reggie Thomas
Ryan Casteel Eddie Ainsmith Bruce Bochy Tim Laudner
Cody Milligan Jordan Henry Matt Angle Neil Martin
Joe Hudson Cal Neeman Bob Tillman Duffy Dyer
Braden Shewmake Freddy Galvis Ron Gardenhire Joey Wong
Alex Dickerson Brian Hunter Steve Stroughter Ray Barker
Pat Valaika Benjamin Tompkins Juan Lopez Ed Lucas
Chadwick Tromp Bruce Bochy Bob Melvin Bob Davis
Ehire Adrianza Greg Legg Chico Ruiz Ramon Santiago
Travis Demeritte Bob Bowman Dave Edwards Mike Kelly
Jesse Franklin V Corey Dickerson Larry Kiesling Casper Wells
Justin Dean Scarborough Green Julio Martinez Nick Heath
Cal Conley Travis Dawkins Rob Valido Nelson Castro
Cade Bunnell Mitch Walding Shanie Dugas Johnny Knott
Yariel Gonzalez Nanny Fernandez Jermy Acey Hod Ford
Hernan Perez Steven Collette Bill Almon Pedro Gonzalez
Eddie Rosario Roman Mejias Max Marshall Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Robinson Cano Greg Dobbs Dick Sisler Thomas Howard
Arden Pabst Gary Tremblay Jorge Meran Jimmy Gonzalez
Ryan Goins Jeff Branson Tim Hulett Jorge Velandia
Chris Sharpe Shawn Payne Terry Banderas Brenden Webb
Landon Stephens Rich Barry Chito Martinez Stetson Allie
Joshua Fuentes Jeremiah Piepkorn Lee Crow Mike Sinnerud
Beau Philip Mike Koritko Robert Grenda Mark Cunningham
Hudson Potts Alex Cabrera Walter Poole Chris Richburg
Drew Campbell Keanon Simon Evan Cherry Luke Barganier
Drew Lugbauer Wes Clements Chip Cannon Steve Balboni
Greyson Jenista Patrick Breen Andy Brown Tom Dodd
Tyler Tolve Steve Hershner Darrell Miller Russ Gibson
Javier Valdes Dave Valle Ted Brazell Sal D’Alessandro
Brandol Mezquita Lavell Cudjo Jon Scott Chris Arnold
Bryson Horne Ivy Griffin Jaime Ortiz Frazier Hall
Hendrik Clementina Justin Pickett Randall Schafer Chuck Staniland

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Austin Riley .300 .373 .587 151 6.4 .248 .324 .466 110 3.2
Ronald Acuña Jr. .300 .401 .560 151 5.9 .250 .346 .447 111 3.0
Michael Harris II .302 .353 .525 130 5.9 .241 .293 .407 86 2.3
Matt Olson .282 .378 .575 152 6.0 .236 .331 .466 114 3.0
Sean Murphy .275 .363 .515 132 5.0 .225 .311 .405 93 2.6
Ozzie Albies .293 .345 .528 131 4.8 .245 .296 .419 92 1.9
Travis d’Arnaud .295 .348 .506 127 3.3 .239 .292 .393 86 1.4
Vaughn Grissom .282 .349 .423 106 3.3 .232 .302 .337 73 0.8
Marcell Ozuna .272 .340 .503 121 2.3 .218 .286 .389 80 0.0
Orlando Arcia .269 .327 .438 103 2.1 .216 .276 .333 66 0.2
Hoy Park .254 .345 .398 97 2.1 .199 .293 .304 62 0.2
Mitchell Tolman .258 .339 .399 96 2.1 .200 .283 .308 58 0.1
Jordan Luplow .232 .336 .516 122 1.8 .188 .293 .395 84 0.5
Robbie Grossman .256 .361 .422 109 2.1 .205 .305 .321 72 -0.2
Kevin Pillar .281 .327 .482 114 1.9 .227 .278 .382 77 0.2
Tyler White .260 .366 .435 114 1.6 .207 .312 .336 74 -0.3
Delino DeShields .238 .350 .320 83 1.5 .188 .294 .250 50 -0.3
Sam Hilliard .229 .311 .441 98 1.8 .176 .255 .329 55 -0.5
Luke Waddell .295 .354 .420 108 1.0 .236 .296 .326 68 0.2
Joe Dunand .230 .301 .370 80 1.4 .179 .247 .279 43 -0.4
Eli White .244 .321 .390 91 1.3 .186 .261 .296 50 -0.4
Ryan Casteel .241 .308 .474 105 1.1 .190 .255 .351 62 -0.5
Cody Milligan .263 .344 .343 85 1.4 .211 .289 .272 53 -0.7
Joe Hudson .224 .299 .377 77 0.8 .166 .239 .258 36 -0.2
Braden Shewmake .259 .307 .418 91 1.1 .202 .251 .318 52 -0.5
Alex Dickerson .262 .327 .469 111 1.1 .210 .276 .363 72 -0.6
Pat Valaika .256 .306 .379 83 1.1 .201 .249 .292 45 -0.9
Chadwick Tromp .264 .302 .450 96 0.8 .204 .244 .334 54 -0.6
Ehire Adrianza .268 .341 .385 95 0.4 .209 .284 .298 60 -0.4
Travis Demeritte .241 .314 .436 99 1.0 .187 .263 .332 58 -1.0
Jesse Franklin V .231 .296 .475 101 0.8 .178 .244 .360 59 -0.8
Justin Dean .232 .307 .343 73 0.8 .176 .257 .260 40 -0.9
Cal Conley .251 .307 .401 88 1.1 .202 .255 .311 52 -1.1
Cade Bunnell .210 .312 .381 85 0.9 .155 .258 .271 44 -1.3
Yariel Gonzalez .260 .315 .398 89 0.8 .209 .263 .304 51 -1.2
Hernan Perez .263 .307 .403 88 0.6 .206 .250 .310 51 -0.9
Eddie Rosario .274 .318 .447 102 0.7 .217 .259 .347 61 -1.5
Robinson Cano .274 .314 .414 92 0.2 .211 .255 .319 53 -1.0
Arden Pabst .215 .247 .361 58 0.2 .151 .182 .248 14 -1.0
Ryan Goins .245 .299 .333 70 0.1 .192 .243 .256 37 -1.4
Chris Sharpe .216 .302 .349 75 0.1 .165 .247 .266 39 -1.6
Landon Stephens .221 .309 .410 90 0.3 .167 .253 .303 50 -1.9
Joshua Fuentes .235 .269 .361 66 0.2 .181 .214 .270 29 -1.8
Beau Philip .208 .284 .322 62 0.1 .155 .232 .238 29 -1.7
Hudson Potts .232 .278 .396 78 0.0 .180 .226 .304 42 -1.8
Drew Campbell .242 .289 .374 77 0.0 .193 .240 .289 43 -1.6
Drew Lugbauer .215 .289 .429 87 0.1 .159 .236 .315 48 -2.4
Greyson Jenista .223 .290 .403 82 -0.1 .170 .235 .294 43 -2.0
Tyler Tolve .222 .280 .388 77 -0.7 .171 .230 .282 38 -2.2
Javier Valdes .270 .358 .437 112 -0.6 .202 .300 .324 69 -2.1
Brandol Mezquita .236 .306 .317 66 -0.6 .181 .253 .239 34 -2.4
Bryson Horne .241 .285 .365 75 -0.6 .193 .234 .284 42 -2.4
Hendrik Clementina .224 .266 .383 69 -0.8 .169 .207 .280 30 -2.5

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Raisel Iglesias R 33 7 2 2.76 61 0 58.7 46 18 7 14 78
Max Fried L 29 15 6 3.02 29 29 172.7 159 58 15 39 159
A.J. Minter L 29 6 3 3.06 69 0 61.7 51 21 7 18 78
Dylan Lee L 28 5 2 3.15 54 0 60.0 52 21 7 14 68
Spencer Strider R 24 10 5 3.16 30 21 122.3 93 43 14 43 168
Collin McHugh R 36 4 1 3.17 44 3 59.7 52 21 6 16 62
Lucas Luetge L 36 5 2 3.38 46 0 53.3 52 20 5 16 54
Kirby Yates R 36 1 1 3.45 34 1 31.3 27 12 4 12 39
Charlie Morton R 39 9 6 3.68 28 28 156.7 134 64 18 54 173
Joe Jiménez R 28 4 2 3.68 56 0 51.3 40 21 7 18 71
Nick Anderson R 32 3 1 3.75 39 0 36.0 36 15 6 9 38
Kyle Wright R 27 13 8 3.81 27 26 151.3 140 64 18 49 144
Tyler Matzek L 32 3 2 3.83 50 0 49.3 41 21 5 26 48
Mike Soroka R 25 8 5 3.87 20 20 111.7 114 48 14 32 86
Michael Tonkin R 33 4 3 3.89 42 0 41.7 35 18 6 18 53
R.J. Alaniz R 32 3 1 3.93 30 0 36.7 32 16 4 16 43
Jackson Stephens R 29 5 3 3.94 39 2 61.7 60 27 6 25 55
Bryce Elder R 24 9 7 3.97 26 25 142.7 134 63 17 56 130
Victor Vodnik R 23 2 1 4.01 33 4 42.7 37 19 5 25 49
Jesse Chavez R 39 3 3 4.09 46 3 55.0 55 25 8 19 53
Huascar Ynoa R 25 7 5 4.12 20 18 87.3 81 40 12 36 90
Ian Anderson R 25 9 7 4.14 25 25 128.3 121 59 17 57 121
Seth Elledge R 27 3 3 4.15 42 1 47.7 45 22 6 22 50
Thomas Burrows L 28 3 3 4.20 34 0 40.7 35 19 5 21 45
Brandon Brennan R 31 2 2 4.21 30 0 36.3 34 17 4 18 33
Coleman Huntley R 30 3 3 4.24 31 2 57.3 57 27 8 23 55
Kolby Allard L 25 6 5 4.24 28 20 110.3 107 52 17 37 105
Darren O’Day R 40 2 2 4.24 29 0 23.3 21 11 3 9 24
Jared Shuster L 24 7 6 4.26 24 22 112.0 112 53 17 36 95
Roel Ramirez R 28 3 2 4.27 33 3 46.3 44 22 6 21 48
Danny Young L 29 2 1 4.29 38 0 42.0 38 20 5 21 47
Allan Winans R 27 3 3 4.32 17 9 58.3 58 28 7 19 43
Brad Brach R 37 2 2 4.33 28 0 27.0 27 13 3 13 27
Dennis Santana R 27 5 5 4.34 52 5 64.3 59 31 7 31 63
Roddery Munoz R 23 6 5 4.42 21 21 95.7 97 47 14 43 86
Tanner Gordon R 25 9 7 4.43 23 22 103.7 112 51 16 31 78
Ty Tice R 26 2 2 4.46 30 0 34.3 34 17 5 18 31
Jesus Cruz R 28 2 3 4.46 37 0 38.3 34 19 5 22 43
Brooks Wilson R 27 2 2 4.47 22 4 46.3 47 23 8 19 46
Alan Rangel R 25 6 6 4.47 24 23 108.7 112 54 15 41 85
Darius Vines R 25 6 5 4.48 20 20 94.3 98 47 17 32 85
Nolan Kingham R 26 6 6 4.56 25 18 94.7 108 48 15 23 61
Dylan Dodd L 25 10 9 4.58 23 23 112.0 117 57 19 37 83
Connor Johnstone R 28 5 4 4.58 32 10 70.7 80 36 10 21 41
Yacksel Ríos R 30 3 3 4.81 34 1 39.3 37 21 5 25 38
Hayden Deal L 28 3 4 4.82 25 11 71.0 78 38 11 29 51
Jasseel De La Cruz R 26 3 4 4.94 19 12 58.3 61 32 9 29 47
Jake Elliott R 28 3 3 5.08 35 1 51.3 54 29 9 23 44
Brandyn Sittinger R 29 2 2 5.20 26 2 36.3 36 21 7 21 37

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Raisel Iglesias 58.7 12.0 2.1 1.1 6.0% 33.2% .291 151 2.86 66 1.5
Max Fried 172.7 8.3 2.0 0.8 5.5% 22.3% .293 138 3.22 72 4.3
A.J. Minter 61.7 11.4 2.6 1.0 7.1% 30.8% .299 136 3.07 73 1.2
Dylan Lee 60.0 10.2 2.1 1.1 5.7% 27.9% .294 133 3.15 75 1.0
Spencer Strider 122.3 12.4 3.2 1.0 8.5% 33.3% .292 132 3.12 76 2.9
Collin McHugh 59.7 9.4 2.4 0.9 6.6% 25.4% .289 132 3.34 76 1.1
Lucas Luetge 53.3 9.1 2.7 0.8 7.0% 23.7% .315 124 3.47 81 0.7
Kirby Yates 31.3 11.2 3.4 1.1 9.0% 29.3% .303 121 3.86 83 0.5
Charlie Morton 156.7 9.9 3.1 1.0 8.3% 26.5% .288 114 3.74 88 2.9
Joe Jiménez 51.3 12.4 3.2 1.2 8.5% 33.6% .292 113 3.45 88 0.5
Nick Anderson 36.0 9.5 2.3 1.5 5.9% 24.8% .306 111 4.04 90 0.3
Kyle Wright 151.3 8.6 2.9 1.1 7.6% 22.5% .290 110 3.99 91 2.6
Tyler Matzek 49.3 8.8 4.7 0.9 11.9% 22.0% .271 109 4.23 92 0.4
Mike Soroka 111.7 6.9 2.6 1.1 6.7% 18.0% .293 108 4.26 93 1.8
Michael Tonkin 41.7 11.4 3.9 1.3 10.2% 30.1% .293 107 4.07 93 0.3
R.J. Alaniz 36.7 10.6 3.9 1.0 10.2% 27.4% .301 106 3.70 94 0.3
Jackson Stephens 61.7 8.0 3.6 0.9 9.4% 20.6% .300 106 4.00 94 0.5
Bryce Elder 142.7 8.2 3.5 1.1 9.0% 21.0% .289 105 4.23 95 2.2
Victor Vodnik 42.7 10.3 5.3 1.1 13.2% 25.9% .296 104 4.21 96 0.4
Jesse Chavez 55.0 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.4% .303 102 4.26 98 0.4
Huascar Ynoa 87.3 9.3 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.9% .294 101 4.25 99 1.2
Ian Anderson 128.3 8.5 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.6% .290 101 4.35 99 1.7
Seth Elledge 47.7 9.4 4.2 1.1 10.3% 23.4% .302 100 4.20 100 0.3
Thomas Burrows 40.7 10.0 4.6 1.1 11.8% 25.3% .288 99 4.38 101 0.2
Brandon Brennan 36.3 8.2 4.5 1.0 11.3% 20.6% .291 99 4.42 101 0.1
Coleman Huntley 57.3 8.6 3.6 1.3 9.2% 22.0% .302 98 4.46 102 0.4
Kolby Allard 110.3 8.6 3.0 1.4 7.9% 22.3% .292 98 4.34 102 1.3
Darren O’Day 23.3 9.3 3.5 1.2 9.2% 24.5% .290 98 4.18 102 0.1
Jared Shuster 112.0 7.6 2.9 1.4 7.5% 19.8% .290 98 4.39 102 1.4
Roel Ramirez 46.3 9.3 4.1 1.2 10.2% 23.3% .302 98 4.32 102 0.3
Danny Young 42.0 10.1 4.5 1.1 11.4% 25.4% .303 97 4.32 103 0.1
Allan Winans 58.3 6.6 2.9 1.1 7.4% 16.8% .285 97 4.52 103 0.6
Brad Brach 27.0 9.0 4.3 1.0 10.8% 22.5% .316 96 4.15 104 0.1
Dennis Santana 64.3 8.8 4.3 1.0 10.9% 22.2% .292 96 4.29 104 0.4
Roddery Munoz 95.7 8.1 4.0 1.3 10.1% 20.2% .300 94 4.64 106 1.0
Tanner Gordon 103.7 6.8 2.7 1.4 6.9% 17.3% .299 94 4.64 106 1.1
Ty Tice 34.3 8.1 4.7 1.3 11.5% 19.7% .293 94 4.99 107 0.0
Jesus Cruz 38.3 10.1 5.2 1.2 12.9% 25.1% .293 94 4.56 107 0.0
Brooks Wilson 46.3 8.9 3.7 1.6 9.1% 22.0% .302 93 4.77 107 0.3
Alan Rangel 108.7 7.0 3.4 1.2 8.6% 17.8% .294 93 4.68 107 1.1
Darius Vines 94.3 8.1 3.1 1.6 7.8% 20.7% .298 93 4.71 107 1.0
Nolan Kingham 94.7 5.8 2.2 1.4 5.6% 14.8% .302 91 4.75 109 0.9
Dylan Dodd 112.0 6.7 3.0 1.5 7.6% 17.0% .287 91 4.92 110 1.0
Connor Johnstone 70.7 5.2 2.7 1.3 6.8% 13.2% .298 91 4.81 110 0.5
Yacksel Ríos 39.3 8.7 5.7 1.1 13.7% 20.8% .294 87 5.01 115 -0.1
Hayden Deal 71.0 6.5 3.7 1.4 9.1% 16.0% .300 87 5.17 115 0.4
Jasseel De La Cruz 58.3 7.3 4.5 1.4 10.9% 17.7% .295 85 5.24 118 0.3
Jake Elliott 51.3 7.7 4.0 1.6 9.9% 19.0% .298 82 5.24 122 -0.2
Brandyn Sittinger 36.3 9.2 5.2 1.7 12.7% 22.3% .293 80 5.52 125 -0.2

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Raisel Iglesias Jonathan Papelbon Rollie Fingers Alejandro Pena 2.2 0.7 1.93 4.00
Max Fried CC Sabathia Vida Blue Jim Kaat 5.2 3.2 2.59 3.56
A.J. Minter Don Mossi Willie Hernandez Norm Charlton 1.9 0.4 2.08 4.55
Dylan Lee Jose Luis Garcia Tom Gorman Gabe White 1.6 0.4 2.40 4.22
Spencer Strider Van Mungo Tom Cheney Rich Harden 3.9 1.9 2.55 3.78
Collin McHugh Craig Stammen Jonathan Papelbon Seunghwan Oh 오승환 1.7 0.5 2.33 4.39
Lucas Luetge Chris Hammond Brian Shouse Morrie Martin 1.1 0.1 2.61 4.57
Kirby Yates Jay Howell Satchel Paige Dave Smith 0.9 0.1 1.93 7.74
Charlie Morton Phil Niekro Early Wynn Virgil Trucks 4.0 1.6 3.00 4.57
Joe Jiménez Dave Tobik Dan Miceli Luis Vizcaino 1.0 -0.1 2.86 4.67
Nick Anderson Blas Minor Rod Beck Claude Raymond 0.7 -0.1 2.96 5.17
Kyle Wright Shelby Miller Mike Witt Sonny Gray 3.6 1.6 3.31 4.33
Tyler Matzek Zack Britton Darold Knowles Ryan Buchter 0.8 -0.2 3.11 5.11
Mike Soroka Joe Overton Alejandro Romero Ike Delock 2.5 1.1 3.40 4.50
Michael Tonkin Matt Hammons Don Brennan Doug Bair 0.7 -0.3 3.03 5.26
R.J. Alaniz Johnny Murphy Hector Navarro Jairo Asencio 어센시오 0.6 -0.2 3.06 5.11
Jackson Stephens Dave Pavlas John Gregory Mike Buddie 0.9 0.0 3.39 4.66
Bryce Elder Jay Tibbs Geremi Gonzalez Tommy Hughes 3.0 1.1 3.57 4.67
Victor Vodnik Rick Carriger Kevin Dinnen Mark Brown 0.8 0.1 3.34 4.66
Jesse Chavez Bob Muncrief Scott Atchison Doug Brocail 0.9 -0.2 3.04 5.42
Huascar Ynoa Taylor Widener Javier De La Hoya Paul Fletcher 1.8 0.5 3.53 4.76
Ian Anderson John Gant Jake Arrieta Thomas Arruda 2.4 0.7 3.72 4.77
Seth Elledge Greg Resz Jack Lazorko Adalberto Flores 0.7 -0.1 3.54 4.97
Thomas Burrows Jaime Cerda Matt Smith Josh Edgin 0.5 -0.3 3.48 5.08
Brandon Brennan Pete Appleton Aurelio Monteagudo Gary Waslewski 0.4 -0.2 3.64 4.99
Coleman Huntley Malcolm Warren Craig Holman David Shepard 0.8 -0.2 3.67 5.13
Kolby Allard Jerry Garvin Matt Boyd Ryan Borucki 2.0 0.4 3.71 4.98
Darren O’Day Dan Miceli Kazuhiro Sasaki Joe Borowski 0.3 -0.2 3.20 5.80
Jared Shuster Jerry Garvin Yohan Flande 플란데 Ryan Borucki 2.0 0.6 3.79 4.92
Roel Ramirez Hassan Pena Scott Gracey R.J. Alaniz 0.8 -0.2 3.52 5.10
Danny Young Carl Sadler Frankie Reed Johnnie Seale 0.5 -0.3 3.56 5.17
Allan Winans Ken Sanders Paul Click Marc Valdes 1.0 0.2 3.80 4.88
Brad Brach Scott Kamieniecki Milo Candini Joe Strong 스트롱 0.3 -0.3 3.44 5.49
Dennis Santana Wayne Kirby Ray Miller Jeff Cornell 0.9 -0.2 3.80 5.18
Roddery Munoz Dan Denham Steve Dreyer Jon McDonald 1.5 0.3 4.01 5.01
Tanner Gordon Mike McCardell Rich Strasser Rick White 1.7 0.4 3.94 5.07
Ty Tice Daniel Stange Jeff Harris Donald Hammitt 0.2 -0.3 3.94 5.08
Jesus Cruz Bill Wilson Chad Harville Fred Lasher 0.3 -0.4 3.79 5.67
Brooks Wilson Derek Hasselhoff Justin Knoff Mike Natale 0.7 -0.1 3.79 5.15
Alan Rangel Jacob Turner 터너 Gaby Hernandez Jose Paniagua 1.7 0.4 4.03 5.05
Darius Vines Jared Jensen Jose Rosario Chris Corn 1.7 0.3 3.86 5.14
Nolan Kingham Griffin Jax Blake Beavan Matt Pearce 1.4 0.3 4.08 5.12
Dylan Dodd Tom Zachary Ryan Carpenter 카펜터 Sam Howard 1.5 0.2 4.15 5.16
Connor Johnstone Dustin Bolton Jarrett Santos Brad Rigby 0.8 0.0 4.20 5.15
Yacksel Ríos Marc Pisciotta Adam Reifer Ken Ryan 0.3 -0.5 4.05 5.93
Hayden Deal Mike Bell Derrin Ebert Zac Cline 0.8 -0.2 4.34 5.49
Jasseel De La Cruz Nicky Curtis Grant Johnson Greg Holt 0.6 -0.2 4.43 5.52
Jake Elliott James Pugliese Steven Spurgeon Mike Browning 0.2 -0.7 4.45 6.09
Brandyn Sittinger Erik Bennett Julio Solano Charlie Sullivan 0.2 -0.6 4.48 6.36

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2023 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

Well, I guess we’re getting the bad news out of the way first! There is a lot to like about the Miami Marlins’ roster and almost none of it is contained in this section. I say almost none because Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a very talented player who is a blast to watch when he’s healthy and things are going well. Any pitch he connects with has the potential to be the perfect blend of velocity and launch angle. He combines that offensive ability with decent defense at second base, below-average glove work at short that still avoids being disastrous, and speed that will hopefully remain fully intact in 2023. And while you’ll notice Javier Báez on his comp list, his contact skills are less bleak and he’s nowhere near as over-aggressive.

If Chisholm is the Marlins’ Thelonious Monk, the rest of the lineup is, well, your neighbor’s tone-deaf 10-year-old son who got a guitar for Christmas and suddenly discovered Korn. There’s just no realistic scenario in which the offense is a significant plus for the team. The Fish’s third-best projected hitter is an over-30 catcher who had a .584 OPS last year. Using the ZiPS plate appearances, only four players in the organization project to have a 5% chance of a 4-WAR season in 2023. That’s fewer than teams like the Rockies and Pirates. What makes this especially unforgivable is that the Marlins intend to contend with this team now. There’s nothing wrong with a contender adding Jean Segura, but the team needs so much more than him; he’s not the finishing piece in an otherwise playoff-worthy lineup here. There’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker in the years before the pitching gets expensive, meaning that there’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker before Miami trades its pitchers to larger-market teams for prospects. Read the rest of this entry »


2023 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Yesterday, I compared the Seattle Mariners to the St. Louis Cardinals. Today, it’s time for the real thing. The Cardinals possess that extra thumper I wish the Mariners had in the form of Paul Goldschmidt. Otherwise, the lineups don’t look all that dissimilar: Nolan Arenado plays an older superstar third base version of Julio Rodríguez while the rest of the lineup is low-key, solid, and not particularly exciting, at least at the plate. The Cardinals are rarely a bad team, and it would be tremendously challenging for them to be one in 2023. Want to know one of my favorite freak stats? The last time the Cardinals ranked worse than 20th in baseball in wRC+ was in 1978. From Whiteyball to Jockettynomics to Moneyball to Mozeliakanalia, the Cards almost always manage to score runs.

In any given season, Arenado and Goldschmidt will compete to be the best at their respective positions. Still, I would take the under on our depth charts’ playing time projections, as both are at the age where declines in playing time due to injury are expected, especially Goldschmidt. Add in Tommy Edman, who may be the most underrated shortstop in baseball, and better-than-league average performances pretty much everywhere else, and this is a team that should dominate every NL Central team other than the Brewers.

The Cards are so solid that they’re almost uninteresting, just as Mike Trout can sometimes seem a bit boring compared to more volatile (and flawed) stars. If there’s a weakness here, it might be the lack of usable depth in the high minors to serve as midseason reinforcements. Jordan Walker’s projection looks a little disappointing on the surface, but ZiPS has him with huge upside numbers in 2024 and beyond. The role player depth is thinner, though; a lot of the usual cast of Triple-A hangers-on have moved on in minor league free agency and ZiPS isn’t particularly impressed with additions like Taylor Motter and Juniel Querecuto. But there’s still time for the Cardinals to add more NRIs, so I wouldn’t necessarily call this a done deal.

Pitchers

You’ll notice a bit of a disconnect between the pitching staff’s projected WAR and ERA figures, with the latter a lot more fun than the former. This is a relic of the team’s outstanding defensive projections, even with Harrison Bader in New York. As a result, the ERAs are a lot lower than the FIPs across the board, and while ZiPS WAR gives more credit to a pitcher than just using FIP, in this case it’s mostly the defense.

That’s not to say the Cards have a bad rotation — it just lacks the exciting highlights the offense possesses. Once you accept that there’s a good chance that peak Jack Flaherty isn’t coming back, there’s nobody here who really blows you away, except maybe Jordan Montgomery during his run late last summer. It’s a quietly competent starting five and there’s more depth in the upper minors than there is with the lineup.

The biggest disagreements between ZiPS and Steamer appear to be in the bullpen. Where Steamer views the team’s bullpen as middle of the pack, ZiPS much prefers the team’s second-tier relievers, seeing Chris Stratton, Génesis Cabrera, and Andre Pallante as plus contributors, while Steamer thinks of them as closer to replacement level. Only the season will sort out which computer is correct.

My think the Cards are a 89-93 win team and not quite in the tier of the very best in baseball, but ZiPS disagrees, putting St. Louis in the same range as the Padres, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. My personal feeling is that the Cards really need a true ace at the top of the rotation, but perhaps that’s just my inclination to play devil’s advocate. ZiPS has beat me before (see the Tigers last year!).

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 32 3B 598 538 67 147 35 1 25 92 50 73 4 2
Paul Goldschmidt R 35 1B 616 538 88 148 31 1 26 94 70 136 6 1
Tommy Edman B 28 SS 633 581 91 152 31 5 13 65 41 103 26 3
Willson Contreras R 31 C 477 412 61 98 21 1 19 64 44 111 3 3
Dylan Carlson B 24 CF 576 509 75 127 30 4 15 66 53 120 6 3
Paul DeJong R 29 SS 480 426 56 90 19 0 20 60 41 130 5 3
Tyler O’Neill R 28 LF 459 410 67 102 18 1 22 71 38 130 12 3
Alec Burleson L 24 LF 514 478 57 129 21 3 16 68 30 87 3 1
Lars Nootbaar L 25 RF 439 373 63 85 19 3 18 56 57 92 5 1
Nolan Gorman L 23 2B 523 474 78 110 18 0 29 78 44 177 3 1
Brendan Donovan L 26 2B 531 456 69 115 23 1 6 52 59 86 3 3
Kramer Robertson R 28 SS 483 414 59 88 16 2 7 49 55 106 12 5
Juan Yepez R 25 LF 480 441 55 116 22 0 24 74 31 110 0 1
Yadier Molina R 40 C 353 332 30 82 14 0 7 39 14 56 3 1
Oscar Mercado R 28 CF 431 392 53 94 21 3 9 50 30 78 13 4
Jordan Walker R 21 3B 515 468 67 111 25 3 12 66 36 133 11 3
Taylor Motter R 33 SS 338 297 36 64 13 1 13 40 37 88 1 1
Chase Pinder R 27 LF 290 251 29 51 9 0 6 29 32 75 2 3
Jose Fermin R 24 3B 379 334 52 79 11 1 5 44 29 55 6 4
Andrew Knizner R 28 C 289 257 30 59 11 0 5 26 24 58 1 1
Iván Herrera R 23 C 386 340 38 76 12 2 8 40 36 90 2 1
Scott Hurst L 27 CF 373 335 40 72 12 1 6 35 34 100 6 4
Aaron Antonini L 24 C 244 214 22 40 7 0 4 25 18 59 1 1
Juniel Querecuto B 30 SS 403 378 44 95 17 3 9 43 22 86 6 3
Mike Antico L 25 CF 528 483 55 102 23 3 10 55 38 147 26 4
Pedro Pages R 24 C 337 304 27 61 13 0 6 34 26 105 1 1
Noah Mendlinger L 22 3B 275 236 29 54 9 1 1 24 25 47 3 2
Irving Lopez L 28 3B 313 284 32 62 12 2 3 30 19 67 2 1
Masyn Winn R 21 SS 542 494 70 110 26 5 7 53 39 135 21 4
Nick Dunn L 26 2B 445 403 42 93 17 2 4 39 34 61 2 1
Justin Toerner L 26 CF 376 326 42 64 12 1 6 36 38 122 5 2
Matt Koperniak L 25 LF 425 386 42 92 16 1 7 49 26 87 5 3
Nick Raposo R 25 C 208 191 22 41 10 1 3 21 15 56 1 1
Moisés Gómez R 24 RF 473 432 52 84 19 1 17 59 35 190 4 2
Jacob Buchberger R 25 3B 405 375 34 81 12 3 5 38 27 98 7 2
Chandler Redmond L 26 1B 381 349 36 71 14 1 12 45 28 141 1 1
Tyler Reichenborn R 24 LF 451 404 38 86 15 3 6 44 31 111 7 6
Cory Spangenberg L 32 3B 400 373 44 78 14 3 7 41 22 147 11 2
Francisco Hernandez R 23 2B 366 334 34 63 13 2 3 29 27 119 8 4
Luken Baker R 26 1B 477 441 41 93 20 0 15 57 30 139 0 1
Mack Chambers B 23 SS 273 250 33 53 10 1 3 22 19 63 4 2
L.J. Jones R 24 DH 414 387 39 83 19 1 8 45 17 101 1 1
Roberto Baldoquin R 29 3B 241 219 19 45 7 0 0 19 15 54 1 1
Jonah Davis L 25 CF 271 239 27 35 7 2 7 30 23 139 2 2
Aaron McKeithan R 23 C 293 264 23 56 9 1 3 30 19 69 0 1
Todd Lott R 25 RF 449 418 44 85 20 2 9 53 18 155 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Nolan Arenado 598 .273 .339 .481 127 .208 .277 9 5.3 .349
Paul Goldschmidt 616 .275 .360 .481 134 .206 .324 3 4.3 .362
Tommy Edman 633 .262 .316 .399 99 .138 .299 7 4.2 .311
Willson Contreras 477 .238 .335 .432 113 .194 .280 -3 3.1 .334
Dylan Carlson 576 .250 .326 .413 106 .163 .299 -2 2.5 .320
Paul DeJong 480 .211 .290 .397 90 .185 .254 6 2.4 .298
Tyler O’Neill 459 .249 .320 .459 115 .210 .310 2 2.4 .334
Alec Burleson 514 .270 .313 .427 105 .157 .301 6 2.2 .319
Lars Nootbaar 439 .228 .328 .440 113 .212 .255 3 2.1 .330
Nolan Gorman 523 .232 .300 .454 108 .222 .302 -6 2.1 .323
Brendan Donovan 531 .252 .353 .346 98 .094 .299 -2 2.1 .315
Kramer Robertson 483 .213 .321 .312 79 .099 .269 4 1.9 .288
Juan Yepez 480 .263 .315 .476 118 .213 .300 -4 1.7 .337
Yadier Molina 353 .247 .283 .352 77 .105 .279 6 1.4 .277
Oscar Mercado 431 .240 .302 .378 89 .138 .279 1 1.4 .297
Jordan Walker 515 .237 .299 .380 89 .143 .307 -2 1.2 .295
Taylor Motter 338 .215 .302 .397 94 .182 .260 -5 0.8 .303
Chase Pinder 290 .203 .301 .311 73 .108 .265 10 0.8 .277
Jose Fermin 379 .237 .313 .320 77 .084 .270 0 0.5 .285
Andrew Knizner 289 .230 .309 .331 80 .101 .278 -2 0.6 .285
Iván Herrera 386 .224 .304 .341 81 .118 .281 -6 0.6 .286
Scott Hurst 373 .215 .290 .310 69 .096 .288 4 0.5 .269
Aaron Antonini 244 .187 .276 .276 56 .089 .238 4 0.4 .252
Juniel Querecuto 403 .251 .293 .384 77 .132 .304 -2 0.4 .292
Mike Antico 528 .211 .277 .333 70 .122 .282 -2 0.3 .269
Pedro Pages 337 .201 .270 .303 61 .102 .285 2 0.3 .256
Noah Mendlinger 275 .229 .321 .288 73 .059 .282 0 0.3 .279
Irving Lopez 313 .218 .285 .306 66 .088 .276 3 0.3 .265
Masyn Winn 542 .223 .280 .338 72 .115 .293 -7 0.2 .271
Nick Dunn 445 .231 .297 .313 72 .082 .263 -2 0.1 .271
Justin Toerner 376 .196 .297 .294 67 .098 .293 -1 0.1 .269
Matt Koperniak 425 .238 .300 .339 79 .101 .291 1 0.0 .283
Nick Raposo 208 .215 .274 .325 67 .110 .288 -2 0.0 .264
Moisés Gómez 473 .194 .258 .361 71 .167 .298 5 -0.1 .268
Jacob Buchberger 405 .216 .272 .304 62 .088 .279 1 -0.2 .255
Chandler Redmond 381 .203 .268 .352 72 .149 .301 2 -0.4 .271
Tyler Reichenborn 451 .213 .280 .309 66 .097 .279 4 -0.5 .263
Cory Spangenberg 400 .209 .258 .319 61 .110 .324 -5 -0.8 .253
Francisco Hernandez 366 .189 .254 .266 47 .078 .283 1 -0.8 .235
Luken Baker 477 .211 .264 .358 73 .147 .272 -1 -1.0 .271
Mack Chambers 273 .212 .268 .296 59 .084 .272 -9 -1.1 .249
L.J. Jones 414 .214 .259 .331 64 .116 .270 0 -1.1 .258
Roberto Baldoquin 241 .205 .274 .237 46 .032 .273 -5 -1.1 .236
Jonah Davis 271 .146 .244 .280 47 .134 .301 -6 -1.2 .239
Aaron McKeithan 293 .212 .283 .288 61 .076 .276 -13 -1.2 .258
Todd Lott 449 .203 .254 .325 61 .122 .299 -3 -1.4 .254

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Nolan Arenado Mike Lowell Aramis Ramirez Cal Ripken
Paul Goldschmidt Pedro Guerrero Lou Gehrig Edgar Martinez
Tommy Edman Rafael Furcal Erick Aybar Bert Campaneris
Willson Contreras Carlton Fisk Ray Mueller Gabby Hartnett
Dylan Carlson Bob Elliott Bernie Williams Dion James
Paul DeJong Danny Espinosa Lee Elia Jim Riggleman
Tyler O’Neill Teoscar Hernández Bobby Bonds Austin McHenry
Alec Burleson Tony Oliva Warren Cromartie Jimmy Welsh
Lars Nootbaar Cody Bellinger Red Barnes Tommy Henrich
Nolan Gorman Hector Cruz Mickey Klutts Austin Riley
Brendan Donovan Mike Andrews Jose Oquendo Edgar Martinez
Kramer Robertson Lyn Lary Pumpsie Green James Rice
Juan Yepez Daryle Ward Cotton Nash Juan Gonzalez
Yadier Molina Eddie Perez Bo Diaz Sandy Alomar
Oscar Mercado Dell Alston Harry Walker Manuel Margot
Jordan Walker Bobby Murcer Nick Senzel Dilson Herrera
Taylor Motter Tim Teufel Eric Chavez Luis Valbuena
Chase Pinder Mike Papi David Keel Roy Cullenbine
Jose Fermin Peter Maris Rob Belloir Rico Rossy
Andrew Knizner Mark Strittmatter Jeff Reed Matt Treanor
Iván Herrera Greg Mahlberg Doug Robbins Eric Christopherson
Scott Hurst Aaron Cain Rhadames Mills Ryan Christenson
Aaron Antonini Tanner Murphy James Powers Kyle Pollock
Juniel Querecuto Michael Martinez Cristian Guzman Brad Boyer
Mike Antico Clete Thomas Blake Tekotte Mark Davis
Pedro Pages Jason Townley Cameron Rupp Ryan Christianson
Noah Mendlinger Noel Finley Eddie Cornejo Raymond Rivas
Irving Lopez Greg Fulton Juan Delis Jorge Deleon
Masyn Winn Alfredo Griffin Arismendy Alcantara Jerry Royster
Nick Dunn Ramon Aviles Chip Hale Carlos Rodriguez
Justin Toerner Randy Curtis Ryan Aguilar Jackson Brennan
Matt Koperniak Tim Smith Bob Hartsfield Al Smith
Nick Raposo Don Bryant Tim McConnell Darryl Cias
Moisés Gómez Tony Armas Mike Kelly Casey Golden
Jacob Buchberger Ron Marigny Ramiro Pena Matt Witkowski
Chandler Redmond Joe Gerber Rod McCall Kyle Roller
Tyler Reichenborn David Kandilas Conner Capel Brock Davis
Cory Spangenberg Welington Dotel Carlos Duncan Larry Raines
Francisco Hernandez Wayne Busby Albert Cartwright Darrin Duffy
Luken Baker Adell Davenport Rene Lachemann Mike Bianucci
Mack Chambers Yoel Romero Tommy Watkins Robert Townsend
L.J. Jones Eddie Pearson 피어슨 Al Jimenez Steve Eddie
Roberto Baldoquin Yovan Gonzalez B.J. Guinn Jeff Bianchi
Jonah Davis Al Shirley Doug O’Neill Marlan Murphy
Aaron McKeithan John McLaren George Enright Adan Amezcua
Todd Lott Brandon Barnes 반즈 Todd Glaesmann Bryan Bogle

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Nolan Arenado .299 .369 .535 148 7.0 .249 .314 .432 107 3.7
Paul Goldschmidt .298 .382 .532 152 5.6 .252 .332 .433 116 2.9
Tommy Edman .288 .342 .440 117 5.6 .239 .292 .358 83 2.8
Willson Contreras .263 .362 .487 135 4.3 .209 .314 .375 93 1.9
Dylan Carlson .275 .352 .467 127 4.1 .222 .302 .367 89 1.3
Paul DeJong .235 .313 .453 111 3.6 .186 .264 .351 72 1.3
Tyler O’Neill .279 .345 .518 137 3.7 .224 .295 .408 96 1.2
Alec Burleson .297 .343 .484 128 3.7 .243 .286 .377 85 0.9
Lars Nootbaar .255 .356 .508 134 3.3 .204 .302 .377 90 0.9
Nolan Gorman .261 .328 .529 133 3.8 .204 .271 .392 84 0.5
Brendan Donovan .277 .378 .387 115 3.3 .223 .323 .312 79 0.9
Kramer Robertson .235 .347 .355 97 3.0 .184 .292 .270 61 0.8
Juan Yepez .292 .341 .535 140 3.1 .234 .287 .414 94 0.3
Yadier Molina .279 .314 .393 96 2.3 .215 .254 .304 57 0.5
Oscar Mercado .266 .328 .428 109 2.4 .215 .275 .331 71 0.3
Jordan Walker .265 .327 .426 109 2.6 .213 .274 .330 71 0.0
Taylor Motter .238 .324 .450 114 1.7 .189 .275 .348 75 0.0
Chase Pinder .229 .330 .356 92 1.5 .173 .267 .270 54 0.0
Jose Fermin .261 .338 .356 94 1.3 .211 .289 .283 61 -0.3
Andrew Knizner .265 .341 .386 102 1.4 .198 .279 .286 61 -0.1
Iván Herrera .250 .332 .399 103 1.6 .197 .276 .294 62 -0.4
Scott Hurst .243 .320 .355 87 1.3 .188 .264 .270 50 -0.4
Aaron Antonini .216 .308 .325 76 1.1 .161 .251 .231 38 -0.1
Juniel Querecuto .275 .319 .434 94 1.3 .223 .267 .335 58 -0.6
Mike Antico .234 .299 .373 87 1.4 .185 .249 .292 54 -0.9
Pedro Pages .229 .297 .342 78 1.1 .175 .243 .256 42 -0.5
Noah Mendlinger .261 .352 .332 94 1.0 .200 .293 .252 57 -0.4
Irving Lopez .247 .313 .351 86 1.1 .195 .262 .268 50 -0.4
Masyn Winn .246 .303 .386 91 1.4 .202 .255 .301 58 -1.0
Nick Dunn .262 .327 .355 92 1.2 .200 .268 .271 54 -1.0
Justin Toerner .225 .323 .336 84 0.9 .169 .269 .253 48 -0.8
Matt Koperniak .265 .326 .380 97 1.0 .208 .272 .294 59 -1.1
Nick Raposo .246 .304 .371 86 0.5 .186 .247 .280 49 -0.5
Moisés Gómez .221 .287 .418 92 1.3 .168 .233 .306 51 -1.2
Jacob Buchberger .243 .298 .346 80 0.8 .195 .249 .270 47 -1.0
Chandler Redmond .230 .297 .399 92 0.6 .175 .244 .305 53 -1.4
Tyler Reichenborn .239 .307 .351 83 0.5 .187 .253 .273 49 -1.4
Cory Spangenberg .241 .285 .373 82 0.3 .181 .229 .274 42 -1.7
Francisco Hernandez .210 .280 .309 64 0.0 .162 .228 .233 30 -1.6
Luken Baker .240 .290 .401 90 0.2 .186 .238 .315 55 -2.0
Mack Chambers .245 .298 .349 81 -0.3 .183 .239 .256 39 -1.8
L.J. Jones .242 .287 .378 85 0.0 .191 .235 .292 48 -2.0
Roberto Baldoquin .232 .302 .272 63 -0.6 .180 .248 .208 31 -1.6
Jonah Davis .174 .272 .339 68 -0.6 .115 .217 .222 28 -2.0
Aaron McKeithan .242 .316 .336 82 -0.5 .182 .257 .250 45 -1.9
Todd Lott .232 .282 .368 79 -0.4 .182 .231 .285 45 -2.3

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Giovanny Gallegos R 31 6 3 3.14 60 0 63.0 47 22 8 17 75
Ryan Helsley R 28 6 3 3.17 50 1 59.7 44 21 7 23 75
Jordan Montgomery L 30 8 5 3.38 29 29 157.3 147 59 17 37 137
Jack Flaherty R 27 6 5 3.47 21 20 103.7 85 40 14 35 106
Chris Stratton R 32 6 4 3.50 51 1 61.7 58 24 6 22 58
Ryan Loutos R 24 5 3 3.57 41 2 58.0 55 23 6 19 50
Jordan Hicks R 26 5 3 3.58 35 8 60.3 45 24 5 34 67
Andre Pallante R 24 6 4 3.68 38 13 100.3 99 41 10 38 75
Steven Matz L 32 7 6 3.71 22 19 97.0 93 40 13 28 94
Miles Mikolas R 34 11 9 3.75 27 26 156.0 153 65 21 32 116
Jacob Bosiokovic R 29 4 3 3.76 29 0 40.7 35 17 4 18 42
Kodi Whitley R 28 2 2 3.78 44 0 50.0 46 21 6 21 46
Matthew Liberatore L 23 10 9 3.83 28 26 141.0 131 60 15 47 121
Zack Thompson L 25 4 4 3.92 33 13 85.0 75 37 9 36 76
Jake Walsh R 27 1 2 3.93 16 0 18.3 15 8 3 8 20
Connor Thomas L 25 9 7 3.93 25 22 128.3 128 56 13 35 87
Jake Woodford R 26 6 5 3.95 33 15 98.0 95 43 10 37 69
Adam Wainwright R 41 10 9 3.96 26 26 154.7 156 68 21 47 117
Dakota Hudson R 28 9 7 3.98 27 26 144.7 142 64 15 60 93
Génesis Cabrera L 26 5 4 3.99 47 4 70.0 63 31 8 28 63
Zach McAllister R 35 2 3 4.38 42 0 51.3 47 25 6 22 55
Packy Naughton L 27 5 5 4.01 28 13 85.3 87 38 11 22 68
Wilking Rodriguez R 33 2 1 4.03 15 1 22.3 20 10 2 11 20
Blake Parker R 38 2 1 4.04 37 0 35.7 32 16 5 16 35
JoJo Romero L 26 5 4 4.04 30 12 71.3 68 32 10 30 68
Andre Granillo R 23 5 5 4.04 37 0 49.0 43 22 6 28 51
Connor Lunn R 24 6 6 4.05 22 19 93.3 94 42 12 23 68
Alex Reyes R 28 5 5 4.06 38 2 44.3 34 20 5 31 51
Freddy Pacheco R 25 4 3 4.13 45 0 52.3 43 24 7 30 61
Gianluca Dalatri R 25 2 2 4.14 30 0 41.3 38 19 6 19 40
Tommy Parsons R 27 7 6 4.15 32 14 108.3 106 50 15 41 82
Michael McGreevy R 22 7 7 4.21 27 27 136.7 140 64 18 44 85
Brandon Waddell L 29 3 4 4.24 25 5 51.0 50 24 7 24 47
James Naile R 30 4 4 4.28 40 7 82.0 86 39 10 26 55
Gordon Graceffo R 23 8 7 4.29 25 25 126.0 119 60 17 38 87
Dalton Roach R 27 6 7 4.29 30 13 92.3 94 44 14 28 72
Kyle Ryan L 31 3 2 4.30 39 0 44.0 44 21 5 21 30
Zane Mills R 22 6 6 4.30 25 25 134.0 143 64 16 38 69
Kenny Hernandez L 25 5 6 4.32 28 11 89.7 94 43 12 32 58
Guillermo Zuniga R 24 4 4 4.44 40 1 50.7 47 25 8 25 50
Logan Gragg R 24 4 5 4.48 26 15 90.3 96 45 13 26 57
Drew VerHagen R 32 4 4 4.50 24 8 62.0 65 31 9 23 51
Edgar Escobar R 26 7 8 4.52 26 14 99.7 102 50 14 39 68
Johan Quezada R 28 2 1 4.53 36 1 49.7 48 25 7 29 45
Brandon Komar R 24 4 6 4.95 27 12 91.0 92 50 12 41 65
Grant Black R 28 4 4 4.59 40 5 64.7 67 33 9 30 46
John Beller L 24 3 4 4.60 24 10 58.7 57 30 9 31 52
Kyle Leahy R 26 6 8 4.67 24 20 117.7 125 61 17 51 83
Garrett Williams L 28 4 5 4.73 27 12 70.3 61 37 9 45 72
Jose Martinez R 24 4 4 5.26 26 7 65.0 74 38 11 28 39
Michael YaSenka R 25 2 3 5.05 23 7 62.3 63 35 10 34 49
Edgar Gonzalez곤잘레스 R 26 4 6 5.55 19 12 60.0 67 37 12 36 46
Griffin Roberts R 27 1 3 6.38 19 7 42.3 44 30 8 32 34

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Giovanny Gallegos 63.0 10.7 2.4 1.1 6.7% 29.8% .262 125 3.38 80 1.0
Ryan Helsley 59.7 11.3 3.5 1.1 9.3% 30.5% .270 124 3.32 80 1.0
Jordan Montgomery 157.3 7.8 2.1 1.0 5.7% 21.0% .286 117 3.60 86 3.0
Jack Flaherty 103.7 9.2 3.0 1.2 8.2% 24.8% .264 113 4.02 88 1.9
Chris Stratton 61.7 8.5 3.2 0.9 8.4% 22.1% .297 112 3.66 89 0.6
Ryan Loutos 58.0 7.8 2.9 0.9 7.6% 20.1% .290 110 3.91 91 0.6
Jordan Hicks 60.3 10.0 5.1 0.7 13.0% 25.6% .267 110 3.90 91 1.0
Andre Pallante 100.3 6.7 3.4 0.9 8.7% 17.2% .290 107 4.18 93 1.5
Steven Matz 97.0 8.7 2.6 1.2 6.9% 23.1% .296 106 3.95 94 1.5
Miles Mikolas 156.0 6.7 1.8 1.2 5.0% 18.0% .280 105 4.17 95 2.3
Jacob Bosiokovic 40.7 9.3 4.0 0.9 10.2% 23.7% .287 105 3.92 96 0.2
Kodi Whitley 50.0 8.3 3.8 1.1 9.8% 21.4% .286 104 4.19 96 0.2
Matthew Liberatore 141.0 7.7 3.0 1.0 7.9% 20.3% .284 103 3.99 97 1.9
Zack Thompson 85.0 8.0 3.8 1.0 9.9% 20.8% .276 101 4.19 99 0.9
Jake Walsh 18.3 9.8 3.9 1.5 10.3% 25.6% .261 100 4.57 100 0.1
Connor Thomas 128.3 6.1 2.5 0.9 6.5% 16.1% .285 100 4.12 100 1.7
Jake Woodford 98.0 6.3 3.4 0.9 8.8% 16.4% .281 100 4.36 100 1.0
Adam Wainwright 154.7 6.8 2.7 1.2 7.1% 17.8% .287 100 4.45 100 1.9
Dakota Hudson 144.7 5.8 3.7 0.9 9.5% 14.8% .279 99 4.63 101 1.7
Génesis Cabrera 70.0 8.1 3.6 1.0 9.3% 20.9% .279 99 4.25 101 0.5
Zach McAllister 51.3 9.6 3.9 1.1 10.0% 24.9% .299 94 4.22 106 0.1
Packy Naughton 85.3 7.2 2.3 1.2 6.1% 18.8% .295 98 4.08 102 1.0
Wilking Rodriguez 22.3 8.1 4.4 0.8 11.3% 20.6% .286 98 4.14 102 0.1
Blake Parker 35.7 8.8 4.0 1.3 10.3% 22.6% .278 98 4.53 103 0.0
JoJo Romero 71.3 8.6 3.8 1.3 9.7% 22.0% .291 98 4.46 103 0.8
Andre Granillo 49.0 9.4 5.1 1.1 12.7% 23.2% .285 97 4.38 103 0.0
Connor Lunn 93.3 6.6 2.2 1.2 5.9% 17.3% .286 97 4.27 103 1.1
Alex Reyes 44.3 10.4 6.3 1.0 15.4% 25.4% .269 97 4.48 103 0.2
Freddy Pacheco 52.3 10.5 5.2 1.2 12.9% 26.3% .279 95 4.40 105 0.0
Gianluca Dalatri 41.3 8.7 4.1 1.3 10.6% 22.3% .283 95 4.77 105 0.0
Tommy Parsons 108.3 6.8 3.4 1.2 8.8% 17.6% .279 95 4.60 105 1.0
Michael McGreevy 136.7 5.6 2.9 1.2 7.5% 14.5% .280 93 4.61 107 1.3
Brandon Waddell 51.0 8.3 4.2 1.2 10.6% 20.8% .297 93 4.57 108 0.3
James Naile 82.0 6.0 2.9 1.1 7.3% 15.4% .291 92 4.53 109 0.4
Gordon Graceffo 126.0 6.2 2.7 1.2 7.1% 16.3% .266 92 4.55 109 1.1
Dalton Roach 92.3 7.0 2.7 1.4 7.1% 18.3% .288 92 4.60 109 0.7
Kyle Ryan 44.0 6.1 4.3 1.0 10.7% 15.3% .283 92 4.84 109 -0.1
Zane Mills 134.0 4.6 2.6 1.1 6.6% 12.0% .283 92 4.68 109 1.1
Kenny Hernandez 89.7 5.8 3.2 1.2 8.2% 14.8% .287 91 4.77 110 0.6
Guillermo Zuniga 50.7 8.9 4.4 1.4 11.0% 22.0% .283 89 4.83 113 -0.2
Logan Gragg 90.3 5.7 2.6 1.3 6.7% 14.8% .286 88 4.79 114 0.5
Drew VerHagen 62.0 7.4 3.3 1.3 8.5% 18.9% .301 88 4.70 114 0.3
Edgar Escobar 99.7 6.1 3.5 1.3 9.0% 15.6% .283 87 4.97 115 0.5
Johan Quezada 49.7 8.2 5.3 1.3 12.6% 19.6% .291 87 5.05 115 -0.2
Brandon Komar 91.0 6.4 4.1 1.2 10.2% 16.1% .285 77 4.89 130 -0.3
Grant Black 64.7 6.4 4.2 1.3 10.3% 15.9% .289 86 5.07 117 0.0
John Beller 58.7 8.0 4.8 1.4 11.7% 19.5% .286 86 5.06 117 0.2
Kyle Leahy 117.7 6.3 3.9 1.3 9.7% 15.8% .293 84 5.02 118 0.5
Garrett Williams 70.3 9.2 5.8 1.2 14.2% 22.6% .280 83 5.12 120 0.2
Jose Martinez 65.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 9.5% 13.2% .294 79 5.72 127 -0.1
Michael YaSenka 62.3 7.1 4.9 1.4 12.0% 17.3% .285 78 5.50 128 -0.2
Edgar Gonzalez 60.0 6.9 5.4 1.8 12.6% 16.1% .299 71 6.17 141 -0.5
Griffin Roberts 42.3 7.2 6.8 1.7 15.6% 16.6% .286 62 7.12 162 -0.9

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Giovanny Gallegos Jeff Montgomery Mel Rojas Gene Garber 1.7 0.0 2.33 4.87
Ryan Helsley Ricky Bottalico Frank Francisco Daniel Bard 1.7 0.2 2.38 4.39
Jordan Montgomery Jim Kaat Jose Quintana Vida Blue 4.1 2.0 2.87 3.93
Jack Flaherty Elmer Riddle Buzz Capra Sam Gray 2.7 1.2 2.87 4.06
Chris Stratton Hansel Izquierdo Chris Nichting Roberto Giron 1.1 0.0 2.98 4.21
Ryan Loutos Ramon Troncoso Dan Burns Rick Baldwin 1.0 0.2 3.04 4.08
Jordan Hicks Bryce Florie Doug Bochtler Jack Banta 1.6 0.2 2.99 4.61
Andre Pallante Bill Abernathie Jeff Samardzija Roy Thomas 2.0 0.8 3.32 4.09
Steven Matz Johnny Podres Chris Short Gary Peters 2.2 0.6 3.16 4.46
Miles Mikolas Jeremy Guthrie Iván Nova 노바 Jeff Samardzija 3.3 1.4 3.34 4.25
Jacob Bosiokovic Rocky Cherry Floyd Weaver Jose Paniagua 0.6 -0.2 3.14 4.67
Kodi Whitley Jim Austin Daryl Patterson Rocky Cherry 0.6 -0.3 3.23 4.58
Matthew Liberatore Jim Abbott Kolby Allard Edwin Escobar 2.8 0.9 3.41 4.42
Zack Thompson Tony Ferreira Jeff Musselman Pedro Martinez 1.6 0.2 3.35 4.44
Jake Walsh Ray Harrell Johnny Humphries Dick Drott 0.2 -0.1 3.22 4.68
Connor Thomas Jeff Ballard Tom Burgmeier John Rheinecker 2.4 0.9 3.52 4.45
Jake Woodford Chuck Fore Zach Miner Jim Hannan 1.5 0.4 3.51 4.43
Adam Wainwright Derek Lowe R.A. Dickey Steve Sparks 2.7 0.9 3.44 4.60
Dakota Hudson Mike Torrez Jamey Wright Chi Chi Gonzalez 2.5 0.8 3.60 4.47
Génesis Cabrera Kenny Rogers Arnie Munoz Sam Freeman 1.0 -0.1 3.42 4.61
Zach McAllister Dick Tidrow Tony Pena Josh Kinney 0.6 -0.4 3.57 5.44
Packy Naughton Derek Lilliquist Kerry Knox Matt Tomshaw 1.5 0.2 3.55 4.65
Wilking Rodriguez Cecil Upshaw Lou Koupal Dooley Womack 0.3 -0.1 3.42 4.87
Blake Parker Tom Gordon Turk Lown Earl Caldwell 0.4 -0.4 3.21 5.12
JoJo Romero Larry Thomas Sean Lawrence Shawn Barton 1.3 0.1 3.46 4.81
Andre Granillo Al McBean Dan Boitano Emiliano Rivera 0.5 -0.5 3.45 4.80
Connor Lunn Bob Hallas Ed Lynch Gil Heredia 1.6 0.4 3.61 4.68
Alex Reyes Doug Bochtler Charlie Hough Michael Kohn 0.7 -0.4 3.45 5.16
Freddy Pacheco Frank Francisco Chad Sobotka Mike Konderla 0.5 -0.6 3.44 5.06
Gianluca Dalatri Vernon Temple Lamar Jones Darren Balsley 0.3 -0.3 3.58 4.76
Tommy Parsons Paul Robinson Braden Shipley Bob Harris 1.7 0.3 3.72 4.64
Michael McGreevy Zeke Spruill 지크 Rich Hunter Peter Lambert 2.0 0.5 3.81 4.68
Brandon Waddell Eric Berger Chester Vincent Lucas Luetge 0.7 -0.2 3.67 4.99
James Naile Felipe Lira Garland Shifflett David Martinez 0.9 -0.2 3.85 4.83
Gordon Graceffo John Wasdin Jaime Barria Ricky Bones 1.9 0.4 3.83 4.74
Dalton Roach Chuck Stanhope Greg Beck Don Wengert 1.3 0.0 3.76 4.86
Kyle Ryan Roberto Rivera Pedro Martinez Mike Gallo 0.2 -0.5 3.76 5.04
Zane Mills Ariel Jurado Edwin Corps Andrew Walker 1.7 0.4 3.94 4.74
Kenny Hernandez Oscar Alvarez Raymond Cordeiro Matt Crouse 1.1 0.0 3.92 4.91
Guillermo Zuniga Matt Skrmetta Tracy Thorpe Grant Gavin 0.3 -0.6 3.83 5.06
Logan Gragg Jason Jones Brian Wolfe Jesse Hernandez 1.1 -0.1 4.04 5.05
Drew VerHagen Dick Strahs Mike Johnson Lawrence Manier 0.8 -0.1 3.89 5.05
Edgar Escobar Chris Jensen John Webb Luis Munoz 1.1 -0.2 4.07 5.02
Johan Quezada Steve Cline Lee Marcheskie Aaron Pullin 0.2 -0.7 3.96 5.40
Brandon Komar George Gerberman Dakota Bacus Gary Groce 0.3 -1.0 4.53 5.55
Grant Black Theodore Ellis Tommy Shimp Marshall Long 0.4 -0.6 4.12 5.33
John Beller Todd Hall Sid Akins Chris Siegfried 0.7 -0.3 4.00 5.22
Kyle Leahy Scott Blewett Phillips Valdez Jake Esch 1.1 -0.3 4.29 5.19
Garrett Williams Brent Leach Andrew Miller Tim Birtsas 0.7 -0.6 4.12 5.58
Jose Martinez Rick Pierini Brady Dragmire Johnny Rodriguez 0.3 -0.5 4.80 5.85
Michael YaSenka Gregory McSparran Esteban Maldonado Matt Solter 0.3 -0.7 4.52 5.70
Edgar Gonzalez Matt Burch Stephen Harrold Bret Helton 0.0 -1.1 4.95 6.32
Griffin Roberts Mark Hampton Justin Jackson Luz Portobanco -0.5 -1.4 5.70 7.36

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2023 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

Under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners have evolved into something a bit like the St. Louis Cardinals. The roster is very solidly built, with an eye toward sustainability in the short- and long-term, and with some of the team’s very best talent locked up for the foreseeable future. But like the Cardinals, the roster is missing something to really put them over the top in a top division, that element that makes them one of the first-tier World Series contenders. The AL West is getting a bit tougher, too; the Astros aren’t likely to fall far, the Rangers are acting aggressively to improve the team, and the Angels, despite their long-term issues, have at least patched things up for 2023.

What are the Mariners missing? A true thumper in the middle of the lineup, that above-average corner outfield type who racks up lofty home run and RBI totals and becomes overrated by many fans. They have notable strength up the middle, with solid offense from players at tougher defensive positions, none of whom really seem to be the volatile type. But they’re thin in the outfield corners and at designated hitter, and the options just aren’t very satisfying. Teoscar Hernández is a fine short-term fill-in, but it feels like a top team would have him as the weakest player in the lineup. It’s hard to envision Jarred Kelenic putting up corner outfield-type numbers, and AJ Pollock is a 35-year-old who was awful last season. Oh for a time machine to bring back the Nelson Cruz of five years ago! Mitch Haniger isn’t a star, but it really feels like a mistake to have not at least run up his price and forced the Giants to commit more than three years and $43.5 million for his services.

The good news is that Dipoto tends to be one of the most active executives in baseball, and while the lineup has issues, there aren’t really that many headaches to worry about. Kolten Wong and J.P. Crawford won’t make many All-Star games, but like much of the roster, they feel like one of those champagne-colored Toyota Camrys popular back in 1998, 99% of which seem to still be driving today. In other words, very Cardinals-ish.

The big exception, of course, is Julio Rodríguez, the one player the Mariners cannot afford to lose. But it feels like the M’s really need a second slugger, a player to be the McCovey to his Mays. That player doesn’t necessarily have to be as good as Willie McCovey, mind you, but I think adding another 120 OPS+, traditional power hitter-type would be as valuable to the M’s as anyone in baseball.

Pitchers

The pitching is a particular highlight of this team. With only a handful of teams remaining to run in ZiPS, Luis Castillo is fourth among pitchers in 2023 WAR and is in the top 20 of all pitchers in projected final career WAR, which includes veterans like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. Only a single player younger than Castillo, Alek Manoah, projects to finish with more career WAR! Getting Castillo extended to a five-year, $108 million contract a year from free agency was a coup for Dipoto and puts a nice feather in his executive cap.

The Mariners don’t really have a number-two pitcher in the sense that ZiPS thinks they have three of ’em: Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. That leaves Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, and a surprisingly large number of OKish spares to comfortably cover the fifth spot in the rotation and fill in for whatever injuries pop up. ZiPS is more optimistic about Gonzales than most simply because of the way ZiPS is constructed — the longer a pitcher outperforms their peripherals and defense, the more ZiPS believes it. Gonzales is projected for a 4.39 ERA with a 4.91 FIP, and he’d have a much more bloated ERA projection if not for his history.

One pitcher ZiPS is really in on is Bryce Miller, who ZiPS prefers for the rotation over Flexen or Gonzales. A 2021 draftee, Miller had a really excellent first full season as a professional, especially his late season debut in the Texas League. His numbers are more impressive when you remember what a brutal environment the high minors have become from pitchers; the Texas League had an ERA over 5.00 in 2022. Just to put that into context, that’s 30-40% more run scoring than the league through the 2010s! A pitcher performing well in the high minors means a lot more than it did five years ago (conversely, a hitter with lofty numbers at Double- or Triple-A ball means a lot less). Miller’s a player to remember, though if he doesn’t work out, I totally wouldn’t mind if you forgot where you heard it from!

ZiPS projects the M’s bullpen bordering on being a top-five unit, about where Steamer has them in our current depth chart rankings. Unlike some teams with a healthy relief projection, it’s not just a couple of huge names with the lion’s share of the WAR; ZiPS basically likes all the principals with the exception of Justin Topa. It’s a deep unit, and like the rest of the team, it’s not reliant on one or two stars. That leaves the M’s less prone to injury-related disasters than most teams.

All told, the Mariners look like an 85-90 win team, with a tighter range of outcomes than most clubs. That’s fun and makes the M’s a serious contender, but I really want them to make the Astros a bit less comfortable. Of course, Dipoto being Dipoto, watch him somehow acquire Shohei Ohtani just after we publish this article!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Julio Rodríguez R 22 CF 588 533 89 144 24 3 28 90 46 146 27 7
Ty France R 28 1B 618 550 75 150 29 1 19 81 39 102 0 1
J.P. Crawford L 28 SS 624 548 71 137 29 2 8 55 64 96 5 4
Cal Raleigh B 26 C 446 405 48 90 24 1 22 68 34 120 2 1
Kolten Wong L 32 2B 485 430 61 107 22 2 12 50 37 86 14 5
Eugenio Suárez R 31 3B 597 521 66 109 20 1 28 78 63 185 1 1
Teoscar Hernández R 30 RF 578 533 78 135 22 1 29 86 38 155 10 3
Tom Murphy R 32 C 269 237 29 54 9 0 10 31 29 83 1 1
Dylan Moore R 30 RF 335 285 44 62 14 2 10 36 37 98 20 8
Luis Torrens R 27 C 367 336 35 77 15 1 12 42 27 97 0 1
Drew Ellis R 27 3B 462 403 52 79 22 1 14 53 48 140 2 1
Mason McCoy R 28 SS 510 469 56 99 18 4 10 51 34 149 11 3
Jarred Kelenic L 23 RF 558 506 71 113 27 3 22 76 44 142 11 5
Brian O’Keefe R 29 C 377 346 36 74 12 1 12 45 27 110 1 1
Marcus Wilson R 26 RF 419 371 47 72 16 2 13 47 42 168 9 2
Cooper Hummel B 28 LF 377 326 48 68 12 3 10 41 43 110 4 3
Sam Haggerty B 29 RF 351 313 46 70 14 2 6 37 28 96 19 2
Cade Marlowe L 26 CF 521 474 59 103 17 4 15 64 38 172 16 6
Kaden Polcovich B 24 2B 487 436 55 86 16 3 9 50 39 137 9 2
Jacob Nottingham R 28 C 320 285 33 57 12 0 11 43 22 111 5 1
Travis Jankowski L 32 CF 237 207 32 44 6 1 1 14 28 53 10 2
Taylor Trammell L 25 RF 427 379 49 79 15 1 12 47 40 121 10 4
AJ Pollock R 35 LF 432 399 49 98 20 1 14 48 26 91 4 1
Josh Morgan R 27 C 196 173 17 36 6 0 5 22 17 49 0 1
Steven Souza Jr. R 34 RF 172 151 20 30 8 1 6 20 18 60 2 1
Jose Caballero R 26 SS 226 195 30 40 8 0 3 21 24 53 11 4
Evan White R 27 1B 232 213 27 46 8 0 10 31 16 66 1 1
Jonathan Villar B 32 2B 470 431 55 98 16 2 12 47 34 127 18 5
Scott Heineman R 30 LF 165 151 20 30 6 1 4 17 11 54 4 3
Jack Larsen L 28 RF 496 447 58 97 20 3 10 52 44 141 4 2
Alex Blandino R 30 2B 283 237 27 41 10 1 2 22 35 96 3 1
Spencer Packard L 25 LF 289 258 28 58 9 1 6 33 23 56 2 1
Zach DeLoach L 24 RF 490 442 63 96 18 3 11 53 42 142 3 2
Mike Ford L 30 1B 368 325 36 68 14 0 11 39 38 87 0 1
Zach Green R 29 1B 367 333 35 66 18 0 14 48 25 145 1 1
Joseph Odom R 31 C 260 240 20 43 10 0 6 26 18 112 1 1
Logan Warmoth R 27 RF 397 353 41 69 14 2 6 35 34 141 10 4
Jake Scheiner R 27 1B 513 462 62 101 23 2 16 64 39 143 2 2
Patrick Frick R 26 2B 383 342 45 70 11 1 2 32 30 100 2 1
Matt Scheffler R 25 C 281 249 29 49 8 2 3 24 25 76 3 1
Trey Amburgey R 28 LF 340 316 37 67 15 1 9 37 20 109 2 1
Cesar Izturis Jr. B 23 2B 289 270 27 57 10 0 1 22 13 71 5 3
Colin Moran L 30 1B 383 348 33 78 14 0 11 49 29 105 0 1
Robert Perez Jr. R 23 1B 528 473 59 99 16 1 17 70 35 174 2 1
Tanner Kirwer R 27 LF 359 321 40 62 8 1 5 32 28 113 15 2
Ty Duvall L 25 C 224 195 21 33 7 0 2 18 24 80 0 1
James Parker R 23 SS 388 359 37 66 14 1 7 35 24 148 3 1
Cole Barr R 25 3B 243 204 22 32 5 1 2 22 25 97 6 4
Connor Hoover L 26 1B 358 323 35 58 14 2 7 32 31 121 5 2
Justin Upton R 35 RF 297 263 32 49 9 0 10 30 28 99 1 1
Victor Labrada L 23 CF 504 459 54 88 14 3 6 46 35 169 14 8
Trent Tingelstad L 25 LF 355 317 27 59 11 1 3 25 35 107 0 1
Jake Anchia R 26 C 304 285 27 53 9 0 6 27 13 101 0 1
Alberto Rodriguez L 22 RF 531 490 48 99 20 2 7 49 34 165 4 4
Justin Lavey R 25 2B 360 335 32 60 9 2 4 28 21 131 9 1
Charlie Welch R 23 C 207 180 18 32 6 1 5 20 24 82 0 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Julio Rodríguez 588 .270 .337 .484 131 .214 .323 4 5.0 .350
Ty France 618 .273 .345 .433 121 .160 .305 6 3.2 .338
J.P. Crawford 624 .250 .334 .354 97 .104 .291 1 2.8 .307
Cal Raleigh 446 .222 .285 .449 105 .227 .259 1 2.4 .312
Kolten Wong 485 .249 .324 .393 104 .144 .286 2 2.4 .313
Eugenio Suárez 597 .209 .302 .413 102 .203 .263 -1 2.1 .310
Teoscar Hernández 578 .253 .308 .462 116 .208 .304 -4 2.0 .329
Tom Murphy 269 .228 .312 .392 100 .165 .306 2 1.6 .309
Dylan Moore 335 .218 .329 .386 104 .168 .294 4 1.4 .316
Luis Torrens 367 .229 .286 .387 90 .158 .286 -1 1.1 .291
Drew Ellis 462 .196 .290 .360 85 .164 .261 2 1.1 .286
Mason McCoy 510 .211 .266 .330 69 .119 .287 6 1.0 .262
Jarred Kelenic 558 .223 .290 .419 99 .196 .266 -1 0.9 .304
Brian O’Keefe 377 .214 .276 .358 80 .145 .277 0 0.8 .278
Marcus Wilson 419 .194 .282 .353 80 .159 .311 6 0.6 .280
Cooper Hummel 377 .209 .310 .356 90 .147 .282 1 0.5 .295
Sam Haggerty 351 .224 .296 .339 81 .115 .303 3 0.4 .279
Cade Marlowe 521 .217 .282 .365 83 .148 .307 -4 0.4 .282
Kaden Polcovich 487 .197 .277 .310 68 .112 .266 3 0.4 .262
Jacob Nottingham 320 .200 .278 .358 80 .158 .282 -5 0.3 .280
Travis Jankowski 237 .213 .309 .266 67 .053 .281 2 0.3 .263
Taylor Trammell 427 .208 .289 .348 81 .140 .272 3 0.3 .282
AJ Pollock 432 .246 .296 .406 98 .160 .286 -4 0.3 .303
Josh Morgan 196 .208 .291 .329 77 .121 .261 -1 0.3 .277
Steven Souza Jr. 172 .199 .291 .384 91 .185 .282 1 0.3 .295
Jose Caballero 226 .205 .305 .292 73 .087 .266 -2 0.2 .273
Evan White 232 .216 .276 .394 89 .178 .263 2 0.2 .290
Jonathan Villar 470 .227 .286 .357 83 .130 .295 -8 0.1 .281
Scott Heineman 165 .199 .267 .331 70 .132 .280 3 0.0 .264
Jack Larsen 496 .217 .290 .342 80 .125 .294 2 0.0 .279
Alex Blandino 283 .173 .300 .249 60 .076 .281 1 0.0 .259
Spencer Packard 289 .225 .304 .337 84 .112 .265 -1 -0.1 .285
Zach DeLoach 490 .217 .292 .346 82 .129 .294 0 -0.1 .282
Mike Ford 368 .209 .299 .354 86 .145 .251 -1 -0.2 .288
Zach Green 367 .198 .262 .378 80 .180 .299 2 -0.2 .277
Joseph Odom 260 .179 .242 .296 53 .117 .303 1 -0.2 .239
Logan Warmoth 397 .195 .278 .297 65 .102 .306 5 -0.2 .259
Jake Scheiner 513 .219 .287 .381 89 .162 .281 -2 -0.3 .290
Patrick Frick 383 .205 .282 .260 57 .056 .283 2 -0.3 .248
Matt Scheffler 281 .197 .281 .281 62 .084 .271 -5 -0.4 .255
Trey Amburgey 340 .212 .262 .351 73 .139 .293 1 -0.5 .265
Cesar Izturis Jr. 289 .211 .253 .259 47 .048 .283 4 -0.5 .230
Colin Moran 383 .224 .285 .359 83 .135 .289 -2 -0.5 .280
Robert Perez Jr. 528 .209 .282 .355 81 .146 .291 -5 -0.9 .280
Tanner Kirwer 359 .193 .272 .271 56 .078 .281 0 -0.9 .247
Ty Duvall 224 .169 .272 .236 48 .067 .274 -6 -0.9 .238
James Parker 388 .184 .240 .287 50 .103 .289 -2 -1.0 .234
Cole Barr 243 .157 .284 .221 48 .064 .286 -4 -1.0 .242
Connor Hoover 358 .180 .254 .300 58 .121 .262 3 -1.0 .247
Justin Upton 297 .186 .269 .335 72 .148 .253 -8 -1.3 .267
Victor Labrada 504 .192 .258 .275 53 .083 .289 -2 -1.4 .240
Trent Tingelstad 355 .186 .268 .256 51 .069 .271 0 -1.4 .239
Jake Anchia 304 .186 .227 .281 44 .095 .264 -11 -1.9 .223
Alberto Rodriguez 531 .202 .260 .294 58 .092 .289 -1 -2.0 .247
Justin Lavey 360 .179 .231 .254 39 .075 .280 -7 -2.0 .217
Charlie Welch 207 .178 .275 .306 66 .128 .290 -23 -2.3 .261

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Julio Rodríguez Pete Reiser Ronald Acuña Jr. Cesar Cedeno
Ty France Sean Casey Mike Sweeney Jo-Jo Moore
J.P. Crawford Wayne Causey Marv Staehle Luke Appling
Cal Raleigh Frankie Hayes Cliff Johnson Carlton Fisk
Kolten Wong Jackie Robinson Fernando Vina Keith Lockhart
Eugenio Suárez Dan Uggla Rico Petrocelli Roy Smalley
Teoscar Hernández Larry Hisle Bob Meusel George Binks
Tom Murphy Marv Foley Matthew LeCroy Chad Kreuter
Dylan Moore Jim Landis Kevin Thompson Bob Brower
Luis Torrens Bob Schmidt Sean Mulligan Steve Decker
Drew Ellis George Foussianes Jim Hickman Gabe Alvarez
Mason McCoy Charlie Neal Tyler Greene Ossie Chavarria
Jarred Kelenic Leon Durham Jack Clark Bob Coluccio
Brian O’Keefe John-Ford Griffin Harry Saferight Tim Laker
Marcus Wilson Jordan Qsar Robert Alexander Drew Robinson
Cooper Hummel Mike Hart Willie Argo Dexter Fowler
Sam Haggerty Ed Stroud Michael Lang Adam Heisler
Cade Marlowe Curtis Pride Gary Ward Junior Felix 펠릭스
Kaden Polcovich Jerry DeSimone Dan Lyons Chance Sanford
Jacob Nottingham Jayhawk Owens Dave Roberts George Mitterwald
Travis Jankowski Otis Nixon Nick Capra Reggie Willits
Taylor Trammell Rex De La Nuez Sheldon Mallory Mike Hart
AJ Pollock Al Simmons Clyde Milan John Rodriguez
Josh Morgan Juan Espino Jim Saul Jeff Horn
Steven Souza Jr. Pete Reiser Rob Ducey Warren Newson 뉴선
Jose Caballero Doc Gautreau Sammy Esposito Larry Lintz
Evan White Steve Whitaker John Boccabella Scott Pinoni
Jonathan Villar Juan Samuel Kazuo Matsui Bobby Adams
Scott Heineman Ken Williams Kevin Flora Herm Winningham
Jack Larsen Ted Wood 우드 Bryan Petersen Doug Deeds
Alex Blandino Nolan Fontana Daniel Muno Jim Waggoner
Spencer Packard Jon-Mark Sprowl Tom Poquette Jermaine Curtis
Zach DeLoach David Dellucci Jim McAnany Anthony Raglani
Mike Ford Rube Walker Larry Sutton 서튼 Rico Washington
Zach Green Rogelio Alvarez Ian Gac J.R. Phillips 필립스
Joseph Odom John Orton Alan Probst Marc Sullivan
Logan Warmoth Rich Barnwell Doug Carpenter Dan Carroll
Jake Scheiner Ossie Blanco Russ Canzler Scott Van Slyke 반슬라이크
Patrick Frick T.J. Maier Boomer Berry Scott Sellner
Matt Scheffler Mike Sadek Tim McConnell Bruce Kimm
Trey Amburgey John Hairston Brian Joynt Ron Shepherd
Cesar Izturis Jr. Rusty Hamric Sam Ferretti Calvin Kelly
Colin Moran John Harris Bill Davis Dick Nen
Robert Perez Jr. Dave McDonald Dan Logan Kevin Witt
Tanner Kirwer Vic LaRose Cameron Monger Scarborough Green
Ty Duvall Jerry Branch Bob Turzilli Duane Gustavson
James Parker Rayner Bautista Billy Carthel Guillermo Mota
Cole Barr Sharnol Adriana Greg Carmona Pedro Ruiz
Connor Hoover Gino Gentile Gordon Goldsberry Samuel Greenwood
Justin Upton Mark Whiten Franklin Stubbs Chuck Weatherspoon
Victor Labrada Rey Fuentes Mike Basse Nathan Haynes
Trent Tingelstad Brian Heere Scott Miller Jason Dill
Jake Anchia Gary Tremblay Roger Luce Ray Roman
Alberto Rodriguez Troy O’Leary 오리어리 Shane Peterson Nelson Simmons
Justin Lavey Ridge Hoopii-Haslam Bobby Dolan David Nicholson
Charlie Welch Bob Turzilli Omar Falcon Brett Hendley

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Julio Rodríguez .296 .367 .538 154 6.8 .236 .307 .418 104 3.1
Ty France .294 .368 .479 139 4.6 .247 .319 .393 104 1.9
J.P. Crawford .275 .357 .392 114 4.1 .226 .307 .319 80 1.5
Cal Raleigh .246 .308 .512 125 3.6 .198 .260 .394 84 1.2
Kolten Wong .269 .347 .435 121 3.3 .226 .303 .353 89 1.3
Eugenio Suárez .235 .324 .466 121 3.6 .187 .277 .363 83 0.8
Teoscar Hernández .278 .336 .522 137 3.6 .229 .284 .410 94 0.3
Tom Murphy .256 .340 .445 121 2.2 .196 .283 .341 79 0.8
Dylan Moore .242 .353 .441 124 2.2 .197 .306 .341 87 0.5
Luis Torrens .255 .311 .436 110 2.1 .202 .263 .332 71 0.3
Drew Ellis .218 .311 .412 102 2.0 .176 .265 .315 67 -0.1
Mason McCoy .236 .290 .378 89 2.2 .187 .241 .292 53 -0.1
Jarred Kelenic .251 .318 .479 122 2.5 .202 .266 .371 79 -0.5
Brian O’Keefe .246 .307 .406 99 1.8 .186 .251 .304 60 -0.1
Marcus Wilson .219 .305 .408 100 1.6 .167 .253 .300 58 -0.6
Cooper Hummel .233 .336 .405 110 1.4 .186 .287 .316 73 -0.3
Sam Haggerty .252 .321 .382 98 1.2 .199 .267 .299 63 -0.4
Cade Marlowe .240 .308 .415 99 1.5 .193 .257 .316 62 -0.9
Kaden Polcovich .218 .303 .352 86 1.5 .170 .255 .267 49 -0.7
Jacob Nottingham .229 .307 .417 103 1.2 .174 .248 .304 61 -0.5
Travis Jankowski .241 .335 .296 83 0.8 .191 .284 .237 53 -0.1
Taylor Trammell .232 .314 .395 101 1.3 .182 .262 .302 62 -0.7
AJ Pollock .268 .316 .447 113 1.2 .218 .268 .358 77 -0.8
Josh Morgan .238 .318 .379 97 0.8 .182 .265 .281 57 -0.2
Steven Souza Jr. .222 .316 .435 109 0.7 .175 .266 .325 69 -0.2
Jose Caballero .230 .332 .341 91 0.7 .181 .284 .261 58 -0.2
Evan White .242 .302 .454 110 0.8 .193 .251 .349 72 -0.3
Jonathan Villar .254 .310 .401 100 1.0 .204 .262 .308 65 -1.0
Scott Heineman .227 .298 .381 92 0.5 .175 .239 .289 51 -0.4
Jack Larsen .239 .314 .382 98 1.1 .191 .267 .300 64 -1.0
Alex Blandino .198 .326 .286 76 0.5 .147 .276 .215 44 -0.6
Spencer Packard .251 .329 .379 102 0.6 .202 .283 .302 68 -0.6
Zach DeLoach .241 .317 .392 100 1.1 .191 .267 .299 63 -1.3
Mike Ford .234 .330 .413 108 0.9 .183 .274 .304 65 -1.1
Zach Green .223 .288 .439 102 0.8 .170 .236 .320 58 -1.1
Joseph Odom .204 .272 .345 72 0.4 .153 .216 .250 33 -0.9
Logan Warmoth .222 .303 .340 83 0.7 .169 .251 .255 46 -1.2
Jake Scheiner .244 .311 .434 110 1.1 .194 .261 .336 72 -1.3
Patrick Frick .231 .305 .293 72 0.4 .179 .258 .227 41 -1.0
Matt Scheffler .224 .310 .327 82 0.3 .168 .258 .246 47 -0.9
Trey Amburgey .239 .289 .401 94 0.4 .188 .238 .311 56 -1.2
Cesar Izturis Jr. .234 .279 .293 62 0.1 .187 .229 .230 32 -1.1
Colin Moran .250 .311 .404 102 0.4 .198 .257 .311 64 -1.4
Robert Perez Jr. .231 .306 .401 98 0.3 .186 .262 .313 63 -2.0
Tanner Kirwer .218 .299 .309 73 -0.1 .166 .244 .233 39 -1.7
Ty Duvall .198 .305 .275 66 -0.4 .143 .242 .196 29 -1.4
James Parker .209 .263 .328 68 -0.1 .163 .217 .249 35 -1.7
Cole Barr .184 .310 .259 65 -0.4 .130 .259 .183 31 -1.5
Connor Hoover .210 .285 .350 80 0.0 .154 .229 .258 40 -1.8
Justin Upton .216 .296 .398 97 -0.4 .160 .241 .284 51 -2.0
Victor Labrada .214 .282 .311 69 -0.3 .169 .238 .241 39 -2.1
Trent Tingelstad .212 .296 .288 67 -0.7 .161 .241 .219 36 -2.2
Jake Anchia .213 .255 .321 61 -1.2 .158 .199 .240 27 -2.6
Alberto Rodriguez .224 .281 .326 73 -1.0 .181 .236 .258 42 -3.1
Justin Lavey .203 .251 .293 55 -1.3 .156 .205 .219 23 -2.7
Charlie Welch .210 .310 .365 91 -1.6 .146 .247 .250 44 -2.9

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Andrés Muñoz R 24 5 3 2.80 64 0 64.3 41 20 6 23 97
Luis Castillo R 30 11 6 2.99 29 29 171.7 134 57 14 56 177
Casey Sadler R 32 2 1 3.40 33 2 47.7 41 18 5 14 43
Diego Castillo R 29 6 4 3.49 60 1 56.7 46 22 7 21 62
George Kirby R 25 8 6 3.56 28 28 136.7 128 54 16 27 132
Matt Brash R 25 5 4 3.63 44 10 79.3 63 32 8 42 99
Logan Gilbert R 26 10 8 3.66 30 30 174.7 161 71 22 49 164
Matt Festa R 30 2 1 3.71 48 0 51.0 42 21 7 17 59
Paul Sewald R 33 5 4 3.77 57 0 57.3 46 24 10 18 72
Robbie Ray L 31 11 9 3.82 29 29 167.3 144 71 29 58 195
Bryce Miller R 24 5 5 3.84 25 24 119.7 106 51 13 40 113
Trevor Gott R 30 3 4 3.94 45 0 45.7 39 20 6 14 45
Isaiah Campbell R 25 3 2 3.95 29 3 41.0 36 18 5 14 39
Gabe Speier L 28 2 3 3.98 48 1 54.3 50 24 7 16 51
Penn Murfee R 29 4 4 4.03 48 9 80.3 71 36 11 27 86
Justin Topa R 32 2 1 4.08 26 0 28.7 29 13 3 11 21
Taylor Dollard R 24 8 8 4.12 24 23 122.3 120 56 16 31 101
Darren McCaughan R 27 7 7 4.13 25 24 135.0 134 62 18 27 104
Blake Weiman L 27 2 2 4.17 33 1 41.0 40 19 6 10 34
Chris Clarke R 25 6 7 4.19 22 18 103.0 106 48 13 23 73
Taylor Williams R 31 2 1 4.22 42 2 53.3 50 25 6 20 47
Chris Flexen R 28 8 8 4.23 30 22 132.0 135 62 18 43 97
Jose Rodriguez R 27 4 4 4.23 26 12 78.7 76 37 10 29 64
Dayeison Arias R 26 1 1 4.25 33 1 36.0 30 17 5 18 41
Juan Mercedes R 23 8 8 4.26 25 18 105.7 101 50 14 32 89
Drew Steckenrider R 32 3 3 4.31 44 0 48.0 46 23 7 17 38
Ryder Ryan R 28 4 4 4.35 41 0 51.7 47 25 6 24 48
Marco Gonzales L 31 10 11 4.39 27 27 155.7 160 76 25 43 98
Brennan Bernardino L 31 1 2 4.45 24 0 30.3 29 15 4 12 27
Austin Warner L 29 4 5 4.47 30 13 86.7 87 43 12 32 71
Prelander Berroa R 23 4 4 4.48 27 27 96.3 82 48 13 58 106
J.B. Bukauskas R 26 2 2 4.50 24 7 50.0 47 25 7 20 49
Juan Then R 23 3 4 4.53 19 13 55.7 55 28 9 19 48
Devin Sweet R 26 4 5 4.58 33 5 59.0 57 30 10 22 56
Emerson Hancock R 24 5 5 4.58 20 20 90.3 88 46 13 35 70
Easton McGee R 25 5 7 4.63 24 19 101.0 108 52 16 20 66
Nick Margevicius L 27 3 4 4.64 26 11 66.0 69 34 10 20 52
Kyle Hill R 26 1 1 4.65 27 0 31.0 28 16 3 21 29
Riley O’Brien R 28 4 6 4.66 25 12 75.3 70 39 11 41 71
Chris Mazza R 33 3 4 4.69 23 7 55.7 56 29 8 21 46
Konner Wade R 31 4 5 4.71 21 17 93.7 107 49 14 22 55
Justus Sheffield L 27 6 8 4.71 26 22 107.0 113 56 15 45 82
Asher Wojciechowski R 34 4 5 4.73 16 14 70.3 69 37 13 28 66
Collin Kober R 28 2 3 4.76 39 1 45.3 41 24 7 21 48
Tommy Milone L 36 4 5 4.76 20 10 73.7 76 39 13 22 57
Fred Villarreal R 25 1 2 4.84 31 2 57.7 60 31 7 22 37
Peyton Alford L 25 3 3 4.89 31 2 49.7 45 27 7 29 50
Jake Haberer R 28 1 3 4.93 37 0 38.3 36 21 6 22 38
Travis Kuhn R 25 2 4 5.03 41 0 48.3 45 27 8 27 47
Leon Hunter R 26 3 6 5.04 29 0 44.7 45 25 8 22 39
Jarod Bayless R 26 2 2 5.13 25 0 33.3 32 19 6 12 32
Patrick Weigel R 28 2 4 5.13 42 4 54.3 50 31 7 35 50
Evan Johnson R 26 1 2 5.17 23 0 31.3 28 18 5 22 34
Ian McKinney L 28 4 6 5.21 17 15 76.0 77 44 13 41 63
Stephen Kolek R 26 6 9 5.25 24 21 111.3 117 65 18 49 85
Ben Onyshko L 26 2 3 5.33 38 0 49.0 46 29 7 26 44
Kyle Bird L 30 2 4 5.36 39 0 45.3 44 27 7 29 39
Adam Hill R 26 3 8 6.07 17 16 75.7 81 51 17 42 66

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Andrés Muñoz 64.3 13.6 3.2 0.8 8.9% 37.5% .273 142 2.70 70 1.5
Luis Castillo 171.7 9.3 2.9 0.7 8.0% 25.4% .268 133 3.25 75 4.2
Casey Sadler 47.7 8.1 2.6 0.9 7.1% 21.8% .271 117 3.78 86 0.7
Diego Castillo 56.7 9.8 3.3 1.1 8.9% 26.4% .273 114 3.89 88 0.7
George Kirby 136.7 8.7 1.8 1.1 4.8% 23.6% .294 112 3.45 90 2.5
Matt Brash 79.3 11.2 4.8 0.9 12.3% 29.0% .291 109 3.67 91 1.2
Logan Gilbert 174.7 8.5 2.5 1.1 6.7% 22.6% .285 109 3.86 92 3.0
Matt Festa 51.0 10.4 3.0 1.2 8.1% 28.1% .278 107 3.80 93 0.3
Paul Sewald 57.3 11.3 2.8 1.6 7.7% 30.6% .271 105 4.01 95 0.4
Robbie Ray 167.3 10.5 3.1 1.6 8.3% 27.9% .279 104 4.21 96 2.5
Bryce Miller 119.7 8.5 3.0 1.0 7.9% 22.4% .281 103 3.86 97 1.8
Trevor Gott 45.7 8.9 2.8 1.2 7.4% 23.9% .270 101 3.94 99 0.3
Isaiah Campbell 41.0 8.6 3.1 1.1 8.1% 22.5% .277 100 4.01 100 0.4
Gabe Speier 54.3 8.4 2.7 1.2 7.0% 22.4% .285 100 4.06 100 0.3
Penn Murfee 80.3 9.6 3.0 1.2 8.0% 25.4% .286 98 3.99 102 0.7
Justin Topa 28.7 6.6 3.5 0.9 8.7% 16.7% .292 97 4.51 103 0.0
Taylor Dollard 122.3 7.4 2.3 1.2 6.0% 19.6% .288 96 4.16 104 1.5
Darren McCaughan 135.0 6.9 1.8 1.2 4.8% 18.6% .285 96 4.12 104 1.5
Blake Weiman 41.0 7.5 2.2 1.3 5.8% 19.7% .283 95 4.35 105 0.1
Chris Clarke 103.0 6.4 2.0 1.1 5.3% 16.8% .290 95 4.16 106 1.1
Taylor Williams 53.3 7.9 3.4 1.0 8.7% 20.4% .288 94 4.37 106 0.1
Chris Flexen 132.0 6.6 2.9 1.2 7.6% 17.1% .288 94 4.50 106 1.3
Jose Rodriguez 78.7 7.3 3.3 1.1 8.6% 18.9% .284 94 4.36 107 0.7
Dayeison Arias 36.0 10.3 4.5 1.3 11.5% 26.3% .278 93 4.43 107 0.1
Juan Mercedes 105.7 7.6 2.7 1.2 7.2% 20.0% .283 93 4.27 107 1.1
Drew Steckenrider 48.0 7.1 3.2 1.3 8.4% 18.7% .277 92 4.65 109 0.0
Ryder Ryan 51.7 8.4 4.2 1.0 10.6% 21.2% .285 91 4.43 110 -0.1
Marco Gonzales 155.7 5.7 2.5 1.4 6.5% 14.9% .275 90 4.91 111 1.3
Brennan Bernardino 30.3 8.0 3.6 1.2 9.2% 20.6% .287 89 4.67 112 -0.1
Austin Warner 86.7 7.4 3.3 1.2 8.5% 18.8% .291 89 4.63 112 0.5
Prelander Berroa 96.3 9.9 5.4 1.2 13.5% 24.7% .280 89 4.64 113 0.7
J.B. Bukauskas 50.0 8.8 3.6 1.3 9.2% 22.6% .290 88 4.33 113 0.3
Juan Then 55.7 7.8 3.1 1.5 7.9% 20.0% .286 88 4.61 114 0.4
Devin Sweet 59.0 8.5 3.4 1.5 8.6% 21.9% .287 87 4.73 115 0.1
Emerson Hancock 90.3 7.0 3.5 1.3 9.0% 18.0% .279 87 4.80 115 0.6
Easton McGee 101.0 5.9 1.8 1.4 4.7% 15.5% .287 86 4.68 117 0.6
Nick Margevicius 66.0 7.1 2.7 1.4 7.0% 18.2% .295 86 4.64 117 0.2
Kyle Hill 31.0 8.4 6.1 0.9 14.7% 20.3% .287 85 4.57 117 -0.2
Riley O’Brien 75.3 8.5 4.9 1.3 12.1% 21.0% .282 85 5.08 117 0.3
Chris Mazza 55.7 7.4 3.4 1.3 8.6% 18.9% .291 85 4.82 118 0.1
Konner Wade 93.7 5.3 2.1 1.3 5.5% 13.7% .299 84 4.72 119 0.5
Justus Sheffield 107.0 6.9 3.8 1.3 9.4% 17.2% .298 84 4.87 119 0.5
Asher Wojciechowski 70.3 8.4 3.6 1.7 9.2% 21.7% .286 84 5.09 119 0.3
Collin Kober 45.3 9.5 4.2 1.4 10.6% 24.1% .286 83 4.90 120 -0.2
Tommy Milone 73.7 7.0 2.7 1.6 7.0% 18.2% .285 83 4.88 120 0.2
Fred Villarreal 57.7 5.8 3.4 1.1 8.7% 14.6% .288 82 4.90 122 -0.2
Peyton Alford 49.7 9.1 5.3 1.3 12.9% 22.2% .284 81 5.03 123 -0.2
Jake Haberer 38.3 8.9 5.2 1.4 12.6% 21.8% .288 81 5.08 124 -0.3
Travis Kuhn 48.3 8.8 5.0 1.5 12.3% 21.5% .280 79 5.41 127 -0.5
Leon Hunter 44.7 7.9 4.4 1.6 10.8% 19.2% .287 79 5.28 127 -0.4
Jarod Bayless 33.3 8.6 3.2 1.6 8.3% 22.2% .283 77 5.19 129 -0.3
Patrick Weigel 54.3 8.3 5.8 1.2 14.1% 20.1% .283 77 5.31 129 -0.3
Evan Johnson 31.3 9.8 6.3 1.4 15.2% 23.4% .284 77 5.45 130 -0.4
Ian McKinney 76.0 7.5 4.9 1.5 12.0% 18.4% .287 76 5.65 131 -0.1
Stephen Kolek 111.3 6.9 4.0 1.5 9.8% 17.0% .291 76 5.32 132 -0.2
Ben Onyshko 49.0 8.1 4.8 1.3 11.7% 19.8% .283 75 5.60 134 -0.7
Kyle Bird 45.3 7.7 5.8 1.4 13.9% 18.7% .282 74 5.62 135 -0.7
Adam Hill 75.7 7.9 5.0 2.0 12.0% 18.9% .291 65 6.27 153 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Andrés Muñoz Antonio Osuna Scott Williamson Jonathan Broxton 2.3 0.5 2.04 3.80
Luis Castillo Jake Arrieta Bartolo Colon Bob Gibson 5.3 2.9 2.55 3.52
Casey Sadler Carlos Almanzar Mike Timlin Jim Brosnan 1.0 0.2 2.80 4.31
Diego Castillo Pedro Báez Dave Tobik Bob Howry 1.3 0.0 2.82 4.27
George Kirby Roy Face Joe Landrum Jameson Taillon 3.7 1.7 2.89 4.09
Matt Brash Herbert Benzel Luke Irvine Rick Huisman 1.9 0.1 3.04 4.62
Logan Gilbert Marcus Stroman Jameson Taillon Noah Syndergaard 4.2 2.1 3.12 4.15
Matt Festa Luis Vizcaino Jeremy Fikac Randy St. Claire 0.9 -0.3 2.98 4.60
Paul Sewald Dan Miceli Luis Vizcaino Joakim Soria 1.3 -0.6 2.74 5.37
Robbie Ray Chuck Finley Mickey Lolich Chris Short 3.7 0.8 3.25 4.66
Bryce Miller Andy Hawkins Dave Goltz Ron Robinson 2.6 0.9 3.38 4.45
Trevor Gott Dan Miceli Tom Gorman Bob James 0.8 -0.3 3.11 5.07
Isaiah Campbell Joe Kerrigan Manny Muniz Jeff Harris 0.7 0.1 3.36 4.40
Gabe Speier Tim Kubinski Rudy Arias Ted Davidson 0.8 -0.2 3.22 4.74
Penn Murfee Sam LeCure Scott Atchison Marco Estrada 1.3 -0.1 3.39 4.80
Justin Topa Todd Williams Jim Corsi Cecil Upshaw 0.2 -0.2 3.64 4.67
Taylor Dollard Kennie Steenstra Ryan Franklin Mike Ferry 2.4 0.6 3.53 4.78
Darren McCaughan Nick Blackburn Thad Weber 웨버 Alvin Spearman 2.4 0.7 3.65 4.59
Blake Weiman Harry Eisenstat Roberto Rivera Dave Schuler 0.5 -0.3 3.42 4.94
Chris Clarke Adrian Sampson 샘슨 Jaron Long Pat Rice 1.8 0.3 3.63 4.83
Taylor Williams Evan Meek 에반 Dave Gumpert Bob Scott 0.6 -0.3 3.62 4.89
Chris Flexen Hugh Sooter Mike Pelfrey Chris Holt 2.1 0.5 3.76 4.80
Jose Rodriguez Eric Thompson Steve Olsen Ken Holloway 1.3 0.2 3.76 4.77
Dayeison Arias Brent Stentz Jake Meyer Lloyd Merritt 0.5 -0.3 3.50 5.10
Juan Mercedes Alex Madrid Roger Erickson Tyler Herron 1.9 0.3 3.67 4.85
Drew Steckenrider Jim Corsi Ryan Mattheus Jared Hughes 0.4 -0.4 3.67 5.13
Ryder Ryan Bruce Dal Canton Todd Erdos Mike Bumstead 0.4 -0.6 3.72 5.13
Marco Gonzales Kirk Rueter Joe Saunders Jarrod Washburn 2.1 0.3 3.97 4.98
Brennan Bernardino Danny Boone Shawn Barton Jack O’Connor 0.3 -0.4 3.64 5.32
Austin Warner Matt Blank Ron Mrozinski Rob Zastryzny 1.0 -0.2 4.05 5.14
Prelander Berroa Al Autry Tyler Thornburg Russ Springer 1.5 -0.3 3.89 5.30
J.B. Bukauskas Jim Dickson Logan Easley Dave Reynolds 0.7 -0.1 3.90 5.22
Juan Then Craig Lopez Richard Leavell Angel De Jesus 0.9 -0.1 3.90 5.32
Devin Sweet Chris Wright Mike McNutt Antonio Alfonseca 0.6 -0.4 3.91 5.20
Emerson Hancock Danny Parks William Stiegemeier Jim Hunter 1.1 0.0 4.18 5.12
Easton McGee Mike Christopher Don Dunster Brandon Sinnery 1.3 -0.2 4.06 5.31
Nick Margevicius Reid Love Derrin Ebert Angel Cuan 0.7 -0.3 4.09 5.23
Kyle Hill John Tronerud Jim Winn Kevin Meistickle 0.1 -0.4 4.05 5.30
Riley O’Brien John Fritz Tony Fiore Joan Gregorio 0.9 -0.4 4.09 5.49
Chris Mazza Sergio Lizarraga Francisco Rivera Josh Smith 0.5 -0.4 4.01 5.41
Konner Wade Andrew Walker Kyle Ruwe Dan Rambo 1.0 -0.1 4.26 5.25
Justus Sheffield Josh Muecke Steve Hammond Mike Montgomery 1.2 -0.3 4.19 5.35
Asher Wojciechowski Jack Knott Carl Willey Mel Harder 0.7 -0.3 4.13 5.42
Collin Kober Jason Shiell Jamie Brisco Scott Gracey 0.2 -0.7 4.03 5.71
Tommy Milone Lefty Stewart Terry Mulholland Mark Hendrickson 0.7 -0.4 4.17 5.52
Fred Villarreal Steven O’Brien Jared Messer Carroll Moulden 0.2 -0.6 4.33 5.37
Peyton Alford Matt Marksberry James Vallone Kenny Esposito 0.2 -0.7 4.21 5.67
Jake Haberer Trevor Sansom Benji Miller Jorge De Leon 0.0 -0.8 4.36 5.99
Travis Kuhn Felix Villegas Frank Batista Seth Garrison -0.1 -0.8 4.44 5.57
Leon Hunter Brad Pautz Reggie Rivard Roy Bailey -0.1 -0.9 4.41 5.82
Jarod Bayless Scott Middaugh Rich Graham Jimmy Marrujo 0.0 -0.6 4.44 6.03
Patrick Weigel Joe Colon Jimmy Cordero Ryan Perry 0.2 -0.9 4.40 6.02
Evan Johnson Dick Colpaert Robert Schwarzkoff Richard Johnson 0.0 -0.8 4.45 6.30
Ian McKinney Chris Pollack Joshua Turley Derrick Gordon 0.4 -0.8 4.67 5.84
Stephen Kolek Scott Blewett Corey Ray Jake Jewell 0.4 -1.1 4.82 5.91
Ben Onyshko Anthony Ferrari Robby Scott James Thomas -0.2 -1.1 4.60 6.00
Kyle Bird Mark Shiflett Nick Martin Dean Hartgraves -0.3 -1.2 4.64 6.40
Adam Hill Will Landsheft Chris Carden Zach Lewis -0.3 -1.6 5.52 6.93

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2023 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

Oops! Last preseason, I regularly expressed guarded optimism that the Tigers had enough going for them that I thought they’d handily beat their rather grumpy ZiPS projection of 73 wins. While there are plenty of times when I win my personal disagreements with my creation, there are quite a lot when I don’t, and this was a particularly stark one! The Tigers were basically the anti-Orioles of ’22, with the vast majority of the roster leaving the season with a worse projection than they started it with, and the possibly-too-pessimistic ZiPS estimate turning out to be over-generous by seven games. So what happens now?

The relatively good news is that Detroit will likely get some boost simply from regression toward the mean — the so-called “dead cat bounce,” or what Bill James coined “the Plexiglass principle.” Jonathan Schoop, at 30, sported an OPS more than 160 points off his career numbers, and even if I feel worse about him, he would be hard-pressed to be that bad again. Similarly, Spencer Torkelson, a preseason contender for the Rookie of the Year last season, has lost a lot of the shine, especially given that his return to the minors was similarly bleak, but it would be hard for him not to improve on a .604 OPS.

Javier Báez had his worst full (normal-length) major league season offensively, but he still managed two WAR and is only a year removed from a legitimately All-Star level season (and just turned 30). ZiPS projects muted rebounds from Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows, though injuries will always be a concern with the latter. The team’s multi-headed catcher situation would have to try to hit worse than Tucker Barnhart did. No similar bounceback is likely for Miguel Cabrera, though Albert Pujols looked toast-like and had a solid finale; the Tigers just aren’t likely to make a push to maximize his playing time with his milestone moments behind him.

So, if the Tigers’ offense is likely to be better, is it likely to be good? Not really. While the roster has a lot of players who you’d expect better from given their established abilities, having so many known quantities also limits just how much upside there is. Báez could be very solid, if flawed in many ways; there’s still hope for Torkelson; and Riley Greene, better than most Tigers in 2022, doesn’t have an appreciably diminished ceiling from a year ago. But where is the dream scenario? Bad teams have to be run so they at least have some future hope, and it’s hard to see an actual good offense constructed from the players currently within the organization. Detroit is more likely to spend money someday than the rest of the division, but this lineup is too flawed to be fixed by slapping on a high-priced player or two. It’s a mess, and new team president Scott Harris has a huge task ahead of him. Read the rest of this entry »


2023 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth in 2022 and got all the way to the World Series, but to get a second bite at the championship apple, the roster needed to be improved. Signing one of the absolute best free agents available in Trea Turner to a monster deal that basically keeps him in Philly for the rest of his career does just that. I liked the Didi Gregorius signings in the past, but he never got back to his pre-injury form, and Turner represents a ginormous improvement on Sir Didi.

The big complication for the team’s offense right now is the outfield, an existing issue made worse by Bryce Harper’s Tommy John surgery guaranteeing that he would not play a full season. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are not a particularly impressive defensive pair, to say the least, but I’ll give the Phillies a pass here, as there’s no way they expected those two to play so much in the outfield at the same time. I’m less excited about Brandon Marsh in center, but that depth chart projection is actually the best for the Phillies since Odúbel Herrera was a good player. And while I didn’t like giving up Logan O’Hoppe for Marsh, it’s a reasonable upgrade at the position compared to the team’s typical plan: Adam Haseley platooning with one lucky fan every game.

Depth is a concern here, and there’s a pretty big dropoff at most positions if something bad happens. The replacement candidates at DH don’t inspire much hope, and I think the Phillies should make an effort to get better options before Opening Day. I’d have taken a chance on Nelson Cruz, and given the defensive output of the outfielders, I would have been aggressive at trying to bring in Kevin Kiermaier. Every team will get worse going from starters to replacements — it’s not like the Dodgers keep a spare Mookie Betts just hanging around for emergencies — but in ZiPS’ eyes, the Phillies have one of the five biggest declines (of teams so far) in projected WAR from starters to secondary options.

Pitchers

ZiPS isn’t high on Taijuan Walker in Philadelphia, but as a fourth starter, he helps round out the rotation. The computer sees Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler both returning to All-Star levels of performance, with Ranger Suárez not far behind; this is a good postseason 1-2-3. Bailey Falter also projects in the vicinity of league average. Andrew Painter gets a solid projection for a pitcher with a short history of professional ball, but while Mick Abel has a lot of upside, ZiPS thinks his command means he’s not as close to fill-in duty as Painter is. There’s not a lot of algorithmic excitement for the rest of the pitchers available in the high minors, so a few injuries would probably result in the Phillies being active in the trade market.

ZiPS gives solid projections to José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez but sees the rest of the bullpen as a mixed bag. After those two and Connor Brogdon, it doesn’t project a single reliever to beat a league-average ERA, even Craig Kimbrel. ZiPS is not at all bullish on recent pickup Gregory Soto; his FIP numbers are alright, but his control numbers are rather dismal, especially for a pitcher who isn’t great at punching out batters and frequently gets hit hard. His raw stuff means he has upside, but he’s still a project to a degree, despite a good FIP. A very low home run rate has been his saving grace, something that is really hard for anyone to maintain long-term. I think the Phillies would be wise to pick up another depth piece or two in relief.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Trea Turner R 30 SS 652 598 101 180 35 4 24 86 46 117 26 4
J.T. Realmuto R 32 C 547 491 72 127 26 3 20 76 42 121 14 1
Bryce Harper L 30 RF 547 461 81 126 32 1 27 86 76 118 12 4
Kyle Schwarber L 30 LF 602 515 88 121 22 2 38 96 79 173 6 1
Rhys Hoskins R 30 1B 610 522 77 124 32 2 27 83 76 151 2 1
Bryson Stott L 25 SS 491 445 61 109 20 3 11 55 42 107 10 3
Alec Bohm R 26 3B 588 537 71 147 26 2 14 70 40 110 3 3
Edmundo Sosa R 27 SS 347 316 45 78 12 4 7 39 13 77 6 2
Jake Cave L 30 CF 466 421 57 99 19 7 13 61 36 136 5 1
Kody Clemens L 27 2B 430 394 52 87 16 4 16 67 29 116 4 1
Darick Hall L 27 1B 532 479 57 108 29 1 23 78 41 145 2 1
Dalton Guthrie R 27 CF 385 354 46 85 18 2 8 45 21 89 8 3
Nick Castellanos R 31 RF 564 521 73 137 34 1 21 78 35 127 4 1
Brandon Marsh L 25 CF 470 427 53 98 18 4 9 54 36 144 11 3
Odúbel Herrera L 31 CF 347 321 39 79 19 1 8 39 20 65 6 1
Garrett Stubbs L 30 C 184 159 26 36 7 0 4 19 21 40 4 1
Wendell Rijo R 27 3B 401 366 47 83 20 0 10 46 28 103 8 3
Rafael Marchan B 24 C 293 268 29 62 13 0 3 26 19 41 1 1
Will Toffey L 28 3B 354 306 39 61 14 2 8 39 37 133 5 1
Oliver Dunn L 25 2B 185 163 22 31 7 2 4 17 21 66 3 1
Max McDowell R 29 C 239 206 24 41 10 0 2 22 22 62 2 1
Ronald Torreyes R 30 2B 343 320 37 78 11 1 6 35 16 40 2 1
Johan Rojas R 22 CF 546 506 68 116 19 5 6 50 28 115 30 5
Daniel Robertson R 29 SS 282 248 31 52 11 0 5 25 27 74 0 1
Hao Yu Lee R 20 SS 356 321 38 74 13 2 7 40 29 84 6 4
Yairo Munoz R 28 3B 364 347 39 92 15 2 7 41 12 66 10 3
Símon Muzziotti L 24 CF 276 253 27 60 9 3 3 25 19 55 6 4
Didi Gregorius L 33 SS 333 305 34 73 14 3 9 39 19 51 2 0
John Hicks R 33 C 331 313 34 71 16 1 13 49 16 107 4 2
Johan Camargo B 29 DH 381 347 42 86 16 1 9 42 32 76 0 1
Scott Kingery R 29 2B 367 325 41 65 16 3 7 35 35 122 9 2
Josh Ockimey L 27 1B 447 380 44 74 15 1 13 47 61 147 1 1
Cam Cannon R 25 3B 326 303 30 67 16 0 3 30 16 63 3 2
Edgar Cabral R 27 C 94 85 7 16 4 0 2 8 8 32 1 1
Justin Williams L 27 RF 196 177 18 37 5 0 5 22 17 62 2 1
Jim Haley R 28 1B 417 384 50 81 14 3 12 52 24 135 11 3
Kendall Simmons R 23 2B 345 314 35 64 15 2 9 40 20 107 5 2
Jorge Bonifacio R 30 LF 424 381 42 77 16 2 11 49 35 129 4 2
Garrett Whitley R 26 RF 386 338 46 65 17 3 9 43 42 148 9 4
Pedro Martinez B 22 2B 290 265 31 54 9 2 2 25 20 92 9 7
Dustin Peterson R 28 RF 405 373 39 89 17 1 9 46 27 95 2 1
Herbert Iser L 25 C 232 215 17 42 9 1 3 20 13 71 0 1
Vito Friscia R 26 DH 345 303 28 63 13 1 6 33 36 108 1 1
Cody Roberts R 27 C 272 247 21 50 12 0 5 30 21 89 0 1
Chris Sharpe R 27 CF 378 334 42 63 20 1 6 40 32 123 6 3
McCarthy Tatum R 27 3B 317 292 28 55 12 1 5 31 17 107 4 2
Matt Kroon R 26 CF 234 214 21 45 7 3 3 23 13 73 4 4
Sal Gozzo B 25 2B 205 189 18 31 7 0 1 11 12 74 2 1
Carlos De La Cruz R 23 LF 364 337 31 67 15 1 9 42 19 138 3 1
Jhailyn Ortiz R 24 RF 483 441 52 86 16 1 14 56 31 179 3 1
Ali Castillo R 34 2B 354 329 33 82 11 2 1 28 19 54 4 2
Jack Conley R 26 C 264 238 21 45 9 2 3 22 22 80 1 1
Rixon Wingrove L 23 1B 317 291 24 55 10 1 9 36 19 124 1 1
Casey Martin R 24 SS 422 395 36 73 20 1 4 34 19 128 8 3
Baron Radcliff L 24 LF 386 342 33 58 10 1 11 39 41 176 2 2
Nick Matera R 26 C 182 165 14 27 7 0 3 15 15 72 0 1
Madison Stokes R 27 CF 349 323 27 61 14 1 5 32 20 124 3 1
Ethan Wilson L 23 RF 495 467 38 101 18 3 6 43 22 126 11 6

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Trea Turner 652 .301 .353 .493 129 .192 .341 4 6.1 .362
J.T. Realmuto 547 .259 .327 .446 109 .187 .306 6 4.2 .332
Bryce Harper 547 .273 .377 .523 143 .249 .313 0 3.9 .377
Kyle Schwarber 602 .235 .341 .507 128 .272 .273 -8 2.7 .360
Rhys Hoskins 610 .238 .341 .462 117 .224 .282 -1 2.3 .346
Bryson Stott 491 .245 .310 .378 87 .133 .300 0 1.6 .301
Alec Bohm 588 .274 .325 .408 99 .134 .322 -5 1.5 .317
Edmundo Sosa 347 .247 .303 .377 85 .130 .306 5 1.5 .296
Jake Cave 466 .235 .305 .406 93 .171 .316 -2 1.2 .308
Kody Clemens 430 .221 .275 .404 83 .183 .271 4 1.1 .290
Darick Hall 532 .225 .299 .434 98 .209 .273 4 1.1 .314
Dalton Guthrie 385 .240 .295 .370 81 .130 .300 4 1.0 .291
Nick Castellanos 564 .263 .314 .453 107 .190 .311 -7 1.0 .328
Brandon Marsh 470 .230 .293 .354 76 .124 .325 4 0.9 .283
Odúbel Herrera 347 .246 .294 .386 85 .140 .286 1 0.8 .295
Garrett Stubbs 184 .226 .322 .346 84 .119 .278 1 0.7 .299
Wendell Rijo 401 .227 .290 .363 78 .137 .289 1 0.6 .286
Rafael Marchan 293 .231 .294 .313 67 .082 .263 2 0.5 .271
Will Toffey 354 .199 .297 .337 74 .137 .321 1 0.4 .284
Oliver Dunn 185 .190 .286 .331 69 .141 .290 3 0.4 .274
Max McDowell 239 .199 .303 .277 61 .078 .275 2 0.4 .268
Ronald Torreyes 343 .244 .284 .341 71 .097 .263 3 0.4 .273
Johan Rojas 546 .229 .277 .322 64 .093 .286 3 0.3 .264
Daniel Robertson 282 .210 .301 .315 70 .105 .278 0 0.3 .278
Hao Yu Lee 356 .231 .303 .349 78 .118 .291 -4 0.3 .288
Yairo Munoz 364 .265 .292 .380 83 .115 .310 -3 0.3 .291
Símon Muzziotti 276 .237 .292 .332 71 .095 .292 3 0.3 .275
Didi Gregorius 333 .239 .291 .393 85 .154 .261 -7 0.1 .295
John Hicks 331 .227 .266 .409 81 .182 .301 -7 0.1 .289
Johan Camargo 381 .248 .312 .378 88 .130 .294 0 0.1 .302
Scott Kingery 367 .200 .282 .332 68 .132 .296 -2 -0.1 .273
Josh Ockimey 447 .195 .309 .342 78 .147 .277 1 -0.1 .291
Cam Cannon 326 .221 .274 .304 58 .083 .270 3 -0.1 .257
Edgar Cabral 94 .188 .255 .306 53 .118 .275 -1 -0.2 .248
Justin Williams 196 .209 .286 .322 66 .113 .291 1 -0.3 .268
Jim Haley 417 .211 .269 .357 70 .146 .291 3 -0.4 .273
Kendall Simmons 345 .204 .268 .350 68 .146 .278 -4 -0.4 .271
Jorge Bonifacio 424 .202 .276 .341 68 .139 .274 2 -0.6 .271
Garrett Whitley 386 .192 .290 .340 72 .148 .309 -2 -0.6 .281
Pedro Martinez 290 .204 .270 .275 50 .072 .304 1 -0.7 .246
Dustin Peterson 405 .239 .294 .362 79 .123 .297 -5 -0.7 .286
Herbert Iser 232 .195 .246 .288 46 .093 .277 -1 -0.7 .234
Vito Friscia 345 .208 .296 .317 68 .109 .302 0 -0.7 .274
Cody Roberts 272 .202 .272 .312 60 .109 .294 -7 -0.7 .260
Chris Sharpe 378 .189 .273 .308 59 .120 .278 -3 -0.7 .260
McCarthy Tatum 317 .188 .246 .288 46 .099 .278 1 -0.9 .237
Matt Kroon 234 .210 .270 .313 60 .103 .304 -6 -0.9 .259
Sal Gozzo 205 .164 .222 .217 21 .053 .263 2 -1.0 .201
Carlos De La Cruz 364 .199 .253 .329 58 .131 .305 1 -1.1 .255
Jhailyn Ortiz 483 .195 .263 .331 62 .136 .290 1 -1.1 .262
Ali Castillo 354 .249 .289 .304 63 .055 .296 -8 -1.1 .262
Jack Conley 264 .189 .266 .282 51 .092 .271 -8 -1.1 .247
Rixon Wingrove 317 .189 .252 .323 56 .134 .291 -1 -1.2 .254
Casey Martin 422 .185 .232 .271 38 .086 .262 1 -1.3 .223
Baron Radcliff 386 .170 .262 .301 54 .132 .303 -1 -1.3 .253
Nick Matera 182 .164 .236 .261 36 .097 .267 -10 -1.6 .224
Madison Stokes 349 .189 .244 .285 45 .096 .289 -11 -2.2 .235
Ethan Wilson 495 .216 .257 .306 54 .090 .284 -5 -2.4 .247

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Trea Turner Frankie Frisch Bobby Avila Alvin Dark
J.T. Realmuto Phil Masi Carlton Fisk Ivan Rodriguez
Bryce Harper Len Koenecke Christian Yelich Cliff Floyd
Kyle Schwarber Jeromy Burnitz Darryl Strawberry Hank Greenberg
Rhys Hoskins Gil Hodges Ken Phelps Andre Thornton
Bryson Stott Rudy Meoli Dave Anderson Scott Fletcher
Alec Bohm Danny O’Connell Ramon Conde Buddy Bell
Edmundo Sosa Dave Nelson Olmo Rosario John Gamble
Jake Cave Dave Pope Steve Stroughter Sam West
Kody Clemens Pete Mackanin Lou Stringer Harry Watts
Darick Hall Andy Wilkins Larry See Lloyd McClendon
Dalton Guthrie Ryan Brett Hal Jeffcoat Jim Steels
Nick Castellanos Marlon Byrd Cecil Cooper Corey Dickerson
Brandon Marsh Herm Winningham Joe Caffie Gale Wade
Odúbel Herrera Steve Lyons Jeff Abbott Timo Perez
Garrett Stubbs Joe Pignatano Frank Grube Bob Stinson
Wendell Rijo Jayson Nix Jeff Ball Steve Benson
Rafael Marchan Billy Alvino Pete Rowe Wilfredo Rodriguez
Will Toffey Joe Orengo Johnny Knott Jerome Pena
Oliver Dunn Zach Files Tom Allison Horace Porter
Max McDowell Javi Herrera Jim Robertson Matt Sinatro
Ronald Torreyes Rafael Bournigal Rennie Stennett Kevin Jordan
Johan Rojas Dave Sappelt Tike Redman Kevin Bootay
Daniel Robertson Jason Bates Ricky Magdaleno Billy White
Hao Yu Lee Bill Lucas Toby Harrah Jason Bartlett
Yairo Munoz Napoleon Calzado Steve Garcia Frenchy Bordagaray
Símon Muzziotti Larry Reynolds Carl Loadenthal Bill Rice
Didi Gregorius Craig Reynolds Casey Candaele Chuck Hiller
John Hicks Miguel Olivo Orlando McFarlane Hawk Taylor
Johan Camargo Mike Cubbage Wally Roettger Shawn Pleffner
Scott Kingery Danny Worth 워스 Dave Owen Anthony Granato
Josh Ockimey Allan Dykstra Danny Hayes Vernon Ramie
Cam Cannon Ed Lavene James Hatfield Nate Samson
Edgar Cabral Matthew Morizio Robert Palmer Nick Derba
Justin Williams Gary Mota Brad Downing Keith Legree
Jim Haley Fred Marolewski Rich Gomez Pat Reilly
Kendall Simmons Tommy Bates Jason Klam Frank Turco
Jorge Bonifacio Michael Lutz Nate Murphy Caleb Stewart
Garrett Whitley Skip Kiil Clifton Matthew Brett Jackson
Pedro Martinez Shawn O’Malley Delvis Morales Marc Rhea
Dustin Peterson Jimmy Van Ostrand Vince Sinisi Thomas Neal
Herbert Iser Parker Morin Tyler Baker Sean Smith
Vito Friscia Pat Garman Juan Pautt Dominic D’Anna
Cody Roberts Juan Apodaca Tom Nieto Dan Rohlfing
Chris Sharpe Shawn Payne Terry Banderas Brenden Webb
McCarthy Tatum Dillon Hazlett Greg Sinatro Jorge Araiza
Matt Kroon Claudio Custodio Todd Hobson Chuck Rocker
Sal Gozzo Jerry Pullman Joe Rhomberg Jake McGuiggan
Carlos De La Cruz Tristen Lutz Vic Ferrante Mike Vento
Jhailyn Ortiz Bruce Chick Greg Biagini Mike Bianucci
Ali Castillo Norberto Martin Aaron Miles Edgar Caceres 캐세레스
Jack Conley Ben Margalski Kerry Baker Jorge Saez
Rixon Wingrove Nick Davis Brian Suarez Pablo Moncerratt
Casey Martin Keith Johnson Steve Lackey Donaldo Mendez
Baron Radcliff Shon Walker Brian Kirby Tom Alfredson
Nick Matera Sammy Rodriguez Dave Liddell Michael Quesada
Madison Stokes Bubba Starling Joe Colameco Nicholas Moresi
Ethan Wilson Dave Jacas Harry Shelton Kevin Williams

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Trea Turner .326 .379 .546 148 7.6 .277 .329 .448 111 4.5
J.T. Realmuto .281 .350 .495 128 5.4 .233 .301 .401 91 2.9
Bryce Harper .296 .400 .589 165 5.4 .247 .347 .474 124 2.6
Kyle Schwarber .262 .368 .572 150 4.3 .210 .315 .442 104 1.0
Rhys Hoskins .262 .365 .515 137 3.7 .211 .315 .405 96 0.7
Bryson Stott .268 .334 .424 104 2.7 .220 .284 .336 70 0.6
Alec Bohm .301 .352 .460 120 3.0 .249 .297 .372 82 0.3
Edmundo Sosa .274 .330 .432 105 2.3 .213 .274 .325 65 0.5
Jake Cave .268 .333 .462 114 2.4 .207 .276 .345 70 -0.1
Kody Clemens .245 .298 .467 104 2.3 .195 .249 .356 64 0.1
Darick Hall .249 .324 .490 118 2.5 .200 .275 .381 79 -0.1
Dalton Guthrie .263 .321 .418 100 1.8 .212 .267 .325 63 0.1
Nick Castellanos .289 .340 .503 127 2.5 .237 .288 .406 88 -0.3
Brandon Marsh .255 .317 .396 91 1.7 .201 .264 .308 57 -0.4
Odúbel Herrera .274 .327 .434 104 1.7 .219 .270 .336 66 0.0
Garrett Stubbs .251 .350 .394 103 1.2 .198 .295 .296 64 0.3
Wendell Rijo .253 .316 .414 95 1.5 .199 .261 .316 58 -0.4
Rafael Marchan .262 .324 .357 85 1.2 .202 .263 .276 50 -0.2
Will Toffey .227 .324 .390 91 1.1 .173 .269 .285 51 -0.6
Oliver Dunn .218 .314 .395 92 0.9 .156 .253 .275 44 -0.2
Max McDowell .230 .336 .321 81 1.0 .169 .274 .238 42 -0.2
Ronald Torreyes .273 .315 .389 91 1.3 .214 .258 .300 52 -0.4
Johan Rojas .255 .303 .358 80 1.5 .205 .256 .290 50 -0.8
Daniel Robertson .239 .332 .362 89 1.0 .182 .274 .269 52 -0.3
Hao Yu Lee .256 .331 .398 98 1.2 .206 .276 .307 61 -0.5
Yairo Munoz .296 .320 .427 101 1.2 .239 .262 .339 63 -0.6
Símon Muzziotti .265 .317 .382 91 1.0 .209 .264 .295 55 -0.3
Didi Gregorius .269 .320 .456 107 1.0 .214 .265 .347 66 -0.7
John Hicks .250 .291 .468 101 1.0 .199 .240 .354 60 -0.8
Johan Camargo .278 .337 .428 107 1.0 .222 .285 .333 69 -0.8
Scott Kingery .228 .313 .388 89 1.0 .175 .256 .289 49 -0.9
Josh Ockimey .221 .338 .396 98 1.0 .167 .278 .293 58 -1.3
Cam Cannon .250 .299 .352 77 0.7 .193 .247 .265 40 -0.9
Edgar Cabral .222 .287 .362 78 0.1 .160 .221 .264 32 -0.5
Justin Williams .238 .316 .375 88 0.3 .181 .259 .276 47 -0.8
Jim Haley .241 .296 .412 91 0.7 .186 .243 .315 52 -1.4
Kendall Simmons .233 .295 .417 92 0.6 .176 .242 .299 50 -1.2
Jorge Bonifacio .228 .303 .393 89 0.5 .176 .251 .295 52 -1.4
Garrett Whitley .220 .316 .391 92 0.3 .162 .263 .294 53 -1.5
Pedro Martinez .231 .301 .320 68 0.0 .176 .241 .234 32 -1.4
Dustin Peterson .265 .322 .415 99 0.3 .212 .268 .322 61 -1.6
Herbert Iser .229 .279 .341 68 0.0 .163 .214 .238 26 -1.3
Vito Friscia .234 .323 .359 84 0.0 .182 .266 .276 48 -1.6
Cody Roberts .228 .304 .356 76 -0.1 .174 .243 .263 39 -1.4
Chris Sharpe .213 .301 .348 77 0.1 .163 .245 .263 40 -1.7
McCarthy Tatum .213 .273 .332 64 -0.1 .157 .219 .247 28 -1.6
Matt Kroon .238 .296 .361 78 -0.4 .184 .246 .272 43 -1.4
Sal Gozzo .195 .246 .256 37 -0.6 .142 .193 .182 4 -1.5
Carlos De La Cruz .230 .281 .387 79 -0.1 .173 .227 .287 40 -1.9
Jhailyn Ortiz .223 .291 .375 80 0.1 .172 .239 .285 44 -2.2
Ali Castillo .280 .320 .340 81 -0.3 .220 .261 .269 47 -1.8
Jack Conley .218 .298 .333 73 -0.3 .157 .237 .235 32 -1.8
Rixon Wingrove .217 .283 .375 77 -0.4 .166 .229 .275 39 -2.0
Casey Martin .209 .257 .311 55 -0.4 .160 .208 .234 22 -2.1
Baron Radcliff .195 .289 .356 73 -0.4 .140 .235 .246 34 -2.3
Nick Matera .198 .272 .317 58 -1.1 .137 .205 .212 15 -2.1
Madison Stokes .217 .271 .326 62 -1.4 .164 .219 .244 26 -3.0
Ethan Wilson .242 .285 .344 71 -1.2 .193 .237 .267 39 -3.3

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
José Alvarado L 28 5 2 3.25 60 0 52.7 39 19 4 29 73
Zack Wheeler R 33 12 7 3.37 26 26 160.3 143 60 15 38 165
Aaron Nola R 30 13 9 3.54 30 30 188.3 160 74 21 35 210
Ranger Suárez L 27 10 6 3.54 32 24 142.3 134 56 13 48 120
Seranthony Domínguez R 28 7 4 3.61 57 0 52.3 42 21 5 24 60
Connor Brogdon R 28 4 2 3.83 54 1 56.3 49 24 7 19 63
Corey Knebel R 31 4 3 4.03 46 1 44.7 38 20 5 22 44
Kent Emanuel L 31 3 3 4.08 17 10 64.0 67 29 8 15 48
Craig Kimbrel R 35 5 5 4.17 53 0 49.7 40 23 7 25 63
Jakob Hernandez L 27 3 2 4.17 44 0 49.7 44 23 7 21 58
Bailey Falter L 26 7 6 4.19 27 20 109.7 106 51 17 26 103
Yunior Marte R 28 2 2 4.26 53 0 63.3 58 30 7 26 61
Andrew Bellatti R 31 3 3 4.34 48 1 45.7 40 22 7 20 59
Jace Fry L 29 3 3 4.34 39 0 37.3 31 18 4 21 42
Matt Strahm L 31 5 4 4.37 42 5 59.7 58 29 10 15 64
Luis Ortiz R 27 3 4 4.41 33 6 65.3 65 32 8 21 54
Taijuan Walker R 30 8 7 4.41 26 26 138.7 137 68 20 41 115
Andrew Painter R 20 5 5 4.45 27 27 109.3 105 54 17 37 107
Trevor Bettencourt R 28 2 1 4.45 24 3 32.3 34 16 5 11 27
Braden Zarbnisky R 26 2 2 4.47 30 1 44.3 43 22 7 14 41
Nick Nelson R 27 3 3 4.48 37 5 64.3 58 32 6 36 68
Brad Hand L 33 4 3 4.50 56 0 48.0 47 24 7 21 46
Gregory Soto L 28 5 6 4.50 56 3 64.0 59 32 9 34 69
Jake Newberry R 28 2 3 4.50 34 2 44.0 45 22 6 20 38
Sam Coonrod R 30 2 2 4.50 37 1 36.0 34 18 4 16 32
Cristopher Sánchez L 26 4 4 4.55 26 15 83.0 79 42 10 38 78
Taylor Lehman L 27 1 2 4.59 24 8 33.3 32 17 4 17 31
Michael Plassmeyer L 26 7 7 4.60 25 22 117.3 120 60 18 35 102
Hans Crouse R 24 5 6 4.61 22 22 80.0 76 41 10 38 73
Andrew Vasquez L 29 3 3 4.62 36 0 39.0 31 20 4 19 44
Ryan Sherriff L 33 2 3 4.63 28 1 23.3 22 12 2 13 22
Noah Skirrow R 24 6 6 4.63 23 21 103.0 103 53 15 42 90
Griff McGarry R 24 5 6 4.68 25 17 75.0 63 39 10 50 90
Joe Gatto R 28 2 3 4.75 29 1 41.7 40 22 5 26 43
McKinley Moore R 24 3 4 4.76 37 1 45.3 42 24 6 26 50
Bubby Rossman R 31 4 5 4.81 40 11 58.0 57 31 9 30 59
Jake Jewell R 30 2 2 4.83 42 0 50.3 48 27 7 22 49
Kyle Dohy L 26 2 3 4.83 31 0 41.0 34 22 5 31 51
Ethan Lindow L 24 4 6 4.88 23 17 96.0 103 52 14 30 67
Josh Hendrickson L 25 3 3 4.94 15 11 58.3 59 32 9 24 48
James McArthur R 26 3 5 5.04 16 14 64.3 65 36 9 28 55
Billy Sullivan R 24 2 3 5.06 41 2 48.0 40 27 6 33 56
Mick Abel R 21 8 10 5.08 23 23 101.0 98 57 15 52 95
Matt Seelinger R 28 2 2 5.08 41 2 51.3 48 29 7 36 55
Jeff Singer L 29 2 3 5.09 32 0 40.7 39 23 5 21 38
Jack Perkins R 25 3 5 5.09 24 12 70.7 76 40 10 29 51
Braeden Ogle L 25 2 3 5.13 38 0 40.3 40 23 5 24 32
James Marvel R 29 6 8 5.14 28 15 103.3 114 59 14 38 65
Francisco Morales R 23 5 6 5.17 38 8 62.7 53 36 7 45 68
Andrew Baker R 23 2 3 5.18 43 0 48.7 45 28 7 33 50
Dillon Maples R 31 2 2 5.25 36 0 36.0 26 21 4 33 45
Damon Jones L 28 2 4 5.31 23 10 59.3 53 35 9 42 69
Zach Linginfelter R 26 2 4 5.36 25 7 48.7 48 29 7 28 42
Mike Adams R 28 3 3 5.40 37 3 53.3 57 32 8 30 39
Trey Cobb R 29 4 6 5.43 33 1 54.7 56 33 7 25 42
Jonathan Hennigan L 28 3 3 5.44 40 1 48.0 48 29 6 34 42
Colton Eastman R 26 4 6 5.44 21 19 82.7 87 50 13 48 65
Aaron Barrett R 35 1 2 5.47 26 0 26.3 28 16 5 14 24
Erubiel Armenta L 23 2 3 5.49 41 0 39.3 33 24 5 34 45
Jon Duplantier R 28 3 4 5.49 28 13 77.0 76 47 12 47 76
Mark Appel R 31 2 4 5.55 27 5 48.7 50 30 7 25 37
Jhordany Mezquita L 25 3 5 5.56 16 12 55.0 57 34 8 35 44
Brian Marconi L 26 3 5 5.62 45 1 49.7 48 31 7 39 48
James Dykstra R 32 1 3 5.65 30 0 28.7 32 18 5 15 24
Louis Head R 33 1 1 5.66 38 2 41.3 39 26 7 22 41
Erich Uelmen R 27 3 6 5.71 38 5 69.3 70 44 12 35 60
Zach Warren L 27 1 1 5.75 34 0 36.0 34 23 5 29 38
Andrew Schultz R 25 1 2 5.79 44 0 42.0 38 27 5 34 43
Brett Schulze R 25 0 0 5.87 19 1 23.0 23 15 5 14 24

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
José Alvarado 52.7 12.5 5.0 0.7 12.6% 31.6% .299 128 3.19 78 0.9
Zack Wheeler 160.3 9.3 2.1 0.8 5.8% 25.2% .296 123 3.12 81 3.6
Aaron Nola 188.3 10.0 1.7 1.0 4.7% 28.0% .288 117 3.07 85 3.9
Ranger Suárez 142.3 7.6 3.0 0.8 8.0% 20.0% .289 117 3.77 85 3.0
Seranthony Domínguez 52.3 10.3 4.1 0.9 10.8% 26.9% .282 115 3.59 87 0.7
Connor Brogdon 56.3 10.1 3.0 1.1 8.0% 26.6% .292 108 3.65 92 0.6
Corey Knebel 44.7 8.9 4.4 1.0 11.4% 22.8% .275 103 4.25 97 0.4
Kent Emanuel 64.0 6.8 2.1 1.1 5.6% 17.8% .298 102 4.08 98 0.9
Craig Kimbrel 49.7 11.4 4.5 1.3 11.5% 29.0% .284 100 4.20 100 0.2
Jakob Hernandez 49.7 10.5 3.8 1.3 9.8% 27.1% .296 100 4.04 100 0.3
Bailey Falter 109.7 8.5 2.1 1.4 5.7% 22.6% .290 99 4.11 101 1.5
Yunior Marte 63.3 8.7 3.7 1.0 9.5% 22.2% .290 97 4.04 103 0.3
Andrew Bellatti 45.7 11.6 3.9 1.4 10.2% 29.9% .306 96 4.07 104 0.2
Jace Fry 37.3 10.1 5.1 1.0 12.7% 25.5% .284 96 4.22 105 0.2
Matt Strahm 59.7 9.7 2.3 1.5 6.0% 25.6% .302 95 4.14 105 0.5
Luis Ortiz 65.3 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.6% 19.4% .294 94 4.15 106 0.5
Taijuan Walker 138.7 7.5 2.7 1.3 7.0% 19.7% .287 94 4.36 106 1.6
Andrew Painter 109.3 8.8 3.0 1.4 7.9% 22.9% .292 93 4.37 107 1.3
Trevor Bettencourt 32.3 7.5 3.1 1.4 7.8% 19.1% .299 93 4.61 107 0.2
Braden Zarbnisky 44.3 8.3 2.8 1.4 7.4% 21.6% .288 93 4.44 108 0.1
Nick Nelson 64.3 9.5 5.0 0.8 12.2% 23.1% .301 93 4.12 108 0.4
Brad Hand 48.0 8.6 3.9 1.3 10.0% 21.9% .296 92 4.76 108 0.0
Gregory Soto 64.0 9.7 4.8 1.3 11.8% 23.9% .296 92 4.56 108 0.3
Jake Newberry 44.0 7.8 4.1 1.2 10.2% 19.3% .300 92 4.63 108 0.2
Sam Coonrod 36.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 10.1% 20.3% .291 92 4.40 108 0.1
Cristopher Sánchez 83.0 8.5 4.1 1.1 10.4% 21.4% .295 91 4.39 110 0.8
Taylor Lehman 33.3 8.4 4.6 1.1 11.3% 20.7% .295 90 4.47 111 0.2
Michael Plassmeyer 117.3 7.8 2.7 1.4 7.0% 20.4% .297 90 4.51 111 1.2
Hans Crouse 80.0 8.2 4.3 1.1 10.8% 20.7% .291 90 4.49 111 0.8
Andrew Vasquez 39.0 10.2 4.4 0.9 11.4% 26.3% .276 90 4.31 111 0.1
Ryan Sherriff 23.3 8.5 5.0 0.8 12.4% 21.0% .303 90 4.44 112 0.0
Noah Skirrow 103.0 7.9 3.7 1.3 9.3% 20.0% .293 90 4.67 112 1.0
Griff McGarry 75.0 10.8 6.0 1.2 14.7% 26.4% .290 89 4.69 113 0.7
Joe Gatto 41.7 9.3 5.6 1.1 13.5% 22.3% .307 87 4.52 114 0.0
McKinley Moore 45.3 9.9 5.2 1.2 12.6% 24.2% .303 87 4.52 115 0.0
Bubby Rossman 58.0 9.2 4.7 1.4 11.5% 22.6% .302 86 4.74 116 0.3
Jake Jewell 50.3 8.8 3.9 1.3 9.9% 22.1% .293 86 4.62 116 -0.1
Kyle Dohy 41.0 11.2 6.8 1.1 15.9% 26.2% .293 86 4.81 116 -0.1
Ethan Lindow 96.0 6.3 2.8 1.3 7.2% 16.1% .295 85 4.81 117 0.7
Josh Hendrickson 58.3 7.4 3.7 1.4 9.4% 18.8% .289 84 4.95 119 0.4
James McArthur 64.3 7.7 3.9 1.3 9.8% 19.3% .296 82 4.85 121 0.4
Billy Sullivan 48.0 10.5 6.2 1.1 14.9% 25.2% .286 82 4.94 122 -0.1
Mick Abel 101.0 8.5 4.6 1.3 11.6% 21.2% .292 82 5.01 122 0.5
Matt Seelinger 51.3 9.6 6.3 1.2 14.9% 22.7% .299 82 4.95 123 -0.1
Jeff Singer 40.7 8.4 4.6 1.1 11.6% 21.0% .296 82 4.80 123 -0.2
Jack Perkins 70.7 6.5 3.7 1.3 9.2% 16.2% .297 81 4.99 123 0.3
Braeden Ogle 40.3 7.1 5.4 1.1 12.9% 17.2% .289 81 5.19 124 -0.3
James Marvel 103.3 5.7 3.3 1.2 8.3% 14.2% .297 81 5.05 124 0.4
Francisco Morales 62.7 9.8 6.5 1.0 15.4% 23.3% .284 80 4.88 125 0.1
Andrew Baker 48.7 9.2 6.1 1.3 14.3% 21.6% .290 80 5.13 125 -0.3
Dillon Maples 36.0 11.3 8.3 1.0 19.4% 26.5% .265 79 5.60 126 -0.3
Damon Jones 59.3 10.5 6.4 1.4 15.3% 25.2% .295 78 5.28 128 0.0
Zach Linginfelter 48.7 7.8 5.2 1.3 12.6% 18.8% .291 77 5.33 129 -0.1
Mike Adams 53.3 6.6 5.1 1.4 12.0% 15.7% .295 77 5.55 130 -0.3
Trey Cobb 54.7 6.9 4.1 1.2 10.2% 17.2% .293 76 5.09 131 -0.4
Jonathan Hennigan 48.0 7.9 6.4 1.1 15.0% 18.5% .298 76 5.40 131 -0.4
Colton Eastman 82.7 7.1 5.2 1.4 12.5% 16.9% .295 76 5.48 131 0.1
Aaron Barrett 26.3 8.2 4.8 1.7 11.6% 19.8% .303 76 5.62 132 -0.3
Erubiel Armenta 39.3 10.3 7.8 1.1 18.1% 23.9% .283 76 5.49 132 -0.4
Jon Duplantier 77.0 8.9 5.5 1.4 13.3% 21.5% .299 76 5.31 132 -0.1
Mark Appel 48.7 6.8 4.6 1.3 11.4% 16.8% .291 75 5.60 134 -0.2
Jhordany Mezquita 55.0 7.2 5.7 1.3 13.7% 17.3% .295 75 5.57 134 0.0
Brian Marconi 49.7 8.7 7.1 1.3 16.7% 20.5% .295 74 5.65 135 -0.5
James Dykstra 28.7 7.5 4.7 1.6 11.2% 17.9% .310 73 5.42 136 -0.4
Louis Head 41.3 8.9 4.8 1.5 12.0% 22.3% .286 73 5.33 136 -0.3
Erich Uelmen 69.3 7.8 4.5 1.6 11.3% 19.3% .289 73 5.66 138 -0.4
Zach Warren 36.0 9.5 7.3 1.3 16.4% 21.5% .299 72 5.35 139 -0.4
Andrew Schultz 42.0 9.2 7.3 1.1 16.4% 20.8% .292 72 5.51 139 -0.5
Brett Schulze 23.0 9.4 5.5 2.0 13.1% 22.4% .295 71 5.98 141 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
José Alvarado Tippy Martinez Rex Brothers John Rocker 1.6 0.0 2.43 4.50
Zack Wheeler Jacob deGrom Mike Mussina Stephen Strasburg 4.6 2.5 2.76 4.08
Aaron Nola Corey Kluber Félix Hernández Zack Greinke 5.2 2.4 2.91 4.43
Ranger Suárez Tom Glavine Jim O’Toole Joe Magrane 3.7 2.1 3.15 4.08
Seranthony Domínguez Ryan Cook Arodys Vizcaíno Francisco Cordero 1.2 -0.1 2.90 4.88
Connor Brogdon Danny Frisella Bob Duliba Juan Carlos Oviedo 1.0 -0.1 3.18 5.06
Corey Knebel Eddie Watt Mike James Turk Wendell 0.9 -0.2 3.32 5.17
Kent Emanuel Sherry Smith Rube Benton Fred Heimach 1.3 0.5 3.55 4.65
Craig Kimbrel Diego Segui Don McMahon Curt Leskanic 1.0 -0.5 2.93 5.68
Jakob Hernandez Chuck Hensley Adam Liberatore Boone Logan 0.7 -0.2 3.40 5.11
Bailey Falter Donovan Osborne John Smiley Carlos Perez 2.3 0.7 3.62 4.78
Yunior Marte Ryan Pressly Tony Menendez Todd Stephan 0.7 -0.3 3.68 5.09
Andrew Bellatti Antonio Osuna Chaz Roe Oliver Drake 0.7 -0.5 3.20 6.01
Jace Fry Josh Edgin Matt Smith Mike Munoz 0.6 -0.3 3.48 5.59
Matt Strahm Dan Schatzeder Tom Hilgendorf Glen Perkins 1.3 -0.1 3.32 5.35
Luis Ortiz Eric Schmitt Rob Brown Rick Henninger 1.0 0.0 3.77 5.17
Taijuan Walker Jordan Zimmermann Homer Bailey Jason Hammel 2.3 0.7 3.92 5.16
Andrew Painter John Urrea Tim Meeks Jarrod Parker 2.1 0.4 3.82 5.27
Trevor Bettencourt Darrell Einertson Kirk Bullinger Adrian Devine 0.4 -0.1 3.85 5.12
Braden Zarbnisky Neil Holland Jerome Gamble Mike Marbry 0.5 -0.2 3.75 5.17
Nick Nelson Bill Mooneyham Denny Bautista 바티스타 Jim Rittwage 0.8 -0.3 3.81 5.44
Brad Hand Jeremy Affeldt Darold Knowles Hal Woodeshick 0.6 -0.6 3.57 5.82
Gregory Soto Hector Mercado George Cappuzzello Justin Wilson 1.0 -0.5 3.74 5.50
Jake Newberry Ricky Trlicek Darryl Scott Adrian Ramirez 0.5 -0.3 3.87 5.30
Sam Coonrod Chris Ray Ed Bauta Gene Harris 0.3 -0.3 3.90 5.36
Cristopher Sánchez Mike Pazik Andy Hassler Jim Kremmel 1.3 0.1 4.02 5.16
Taylor Lehman Steve Krueger Larry Smith Steve Cates 0.5 0.0 3.90 5.30
Michael Plassmeyer Alex Delgado Brian Duensing Ryan Yarbrough 2.0 0.3 3.98 5.25
Hans Crouse Rickey Clark Nicolas Heredia Pat Darcy 1.3 0.2 4.13 5.31
Andrew Vasquez Josh Edgin Renyel Pinto Mike Munoz 0.5 -0.4 3.67 5.90
Ryan Sherriff Jack O’Connor Mike Raczka Willard Hunter 0.2 -0.2 3.84 5.82
Noah Skirrow Willie Martinez Jim Lemasters Joe McIntosh 1.7 0.1 4.09 5.36
Griff McGarry Jeff Jones Rick Ownbey Al Curtis 1.4 -0.2 3.96 5.72
Joe Gatto Cody Eppley Andy Cavazos Jesus Delgado 0.4 -0.5 4.07 5.72
McKinley Moore Al McBean Brian Kolbe Bob Long 0.4 -0.4 4.07 5.48
Bubby Rossman Tom Kramer Mike Capel Sergio Lizarraga 0.9 -0.3 4.03 5.75
Jake Jewell Michael Mariot Jim Dickson Mike Roesler 0.4 -0.6 4.07 5.76
Kyle Dohy Jace Fry Ed Carroll Hunter Cervenka 0.4 -0.5 3.90 5.76
Ethan Lindow Greg Hibbard Jeff Mutis Matt Gage 1.3 0.1 4.35 5.43
Josh Hendrickson Gary Dotter Ron Nischwitz Chet Nichols 0.8 0.0 4.38 5.58
James McArthur Miguel Ruiz Nelson Hiraldo Curran Percival 0.8 -0.1 4.60 5.76
Billy Sullivan Eddy Rodriguez Keith Butler Alejandro Pena 0.4 -0.6 4.28 5.90
Mick Abel Jack McKnight Dan Spillner Francisco Oliveras 1.3 -0.3 4.50 5.80
Matt Seelinger Jason Gilfillan Terry Bross Roman Mendez 0.4 -0.7 4.33 6.19
Jeff Singer Bob Macdonald Dean Hartgraves Fred Green 0.2 -0.6 4.28 6.01
Jack Perkins Ken Grzelaczyk Rickey Keeton Bill Fulton 0.7 -0.2 4.58 5.68
Braeden Ogle Lawrence Groover Jose Ramos Earl Stephenson 0.0 -0.6 4.59 6.00
James Marvel Mike MacDonald Brad Knox Henry Bonilla 1.0 -0.1 4.67 5.61
Francisco Morales Lee Smith Duane Ward Eric Stone 0.6 -0.7 4.45 6.24
Andrew Baker Ty Tice John Stewart Hugo Castellanos 0.1 -0.7 4.45 6.03
Dillon Maples Jason Frasor Fernando Rodney Bob Long 0.2 -0.7 4.15 6.59
Damon Jones Arnold Earley Michael Kirkman Anthony Capra 0.6 -0.6 4.49 6.37
Zach Linginfelter Jonathan Garcia Frank Batista Mike Roesler 0.2 -0.5 4.83 6.21
Mike Adams Joel Pena Jeff Bettendorf Bobby Cassevah 0.1 -0.8 4.76 6.29
Trey Cobb Mike Trujillo Edwin Quirarte Thad Tillotson 0.0 -0.8 4.76 6.31
Jonathan Hennigan Jerry Bostic Phil McCormick Mike Hinckley 0.0 -0.8 4.75 6.30
Colton Eastman Charlie Zink Trevor Clifton Matthew Gayeski 0.5 -0.5 4.99 6.17
Aaron Barrett Dwight Bernard Stew Cliburn Hector Navarro 0.0 -0.6 4.58 6.56
Erubiel Armenta Charlie Hudson Greg Williams Greg Miller 0.0 -0.9 4.64 6.62
Jon Duplantier Matt DeSalvo Al Schroll Jack Hamilton 0.6 -0.9 4.75 6.57
Mark Appel Darrel Akerfelds Bob Chakales Andrew Russell 0.1 -0.6 4.90 6.39
Jhordany Mezquita Tony Gonzalez Dan McGinn Wes Pierorazio 0.3 -0.5 5.05 6.34
Brian Marconi Andrew Faulkner Mike Kinnunen Mark Miggins 0.0 -1.0 4.86 6.56
James Dykstra Harry Fisher Daryl Patterson Jon Huizinga -0.1 -0.7 4.97 6.77
Louis Head Storm Davis Mark Wohlers Matt Karchner 0.1 -0.7 4.67 7.03
Erich Uelmen Paul Clemens Dick Lange Rich Yett 0.0 -1.0 5.13 6.52
Zach Warren Perry Lychak Ernest Gause Russ Rohlicek -0.1 -0.8 4.93 6.79
Andrew Schultz Duane Theiss Dave Sells Mike Newson -0.2 -1.0 5.09 6.94
Brett Schulze Ricardo Aponte Luis Peralta Landon Stockman 0.0 -0.5 5.02 6.70

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2023 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

It’s really hard to be a lousy offense with Aaron Judge, and it’s really hard to be a great one without him. The Yankees were not otherwise stacked — or destitute — enough to buck that reality. With the return of their franchise slugger, if the Yankee offense doesn’t lead the American League in runs scored, it shouldn’t miss by a lot. The Yankees led the AL in runs scored last year and outside of Judge, they really didn’t get any standout, star-level offensive performances (other than Matt Carpenter, but that was only 154 plate appearances). Read the rest of this entry »


2023 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Coming into the 2021 season, there were reasons to be optimistic about the future of Kansas City’s offense, with Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino. Three of these four played well in the majors, but only one — and probably the one the Royals were themselves least high on, Pasquantino — really wowed offensively. Witt was solid, but far from amazing, and Melendez’s bat was mainly good because he plays a position that he may not be playing for very long. I guess what it comes down to is a simple question: outside of Pasquantino, who do you feel better about now than a year ago? The problem with the Royals is that I’m hard-pressed to give many names in response to that question.

KC’s minor league hitters didn’t come roaring out of the gate, which makes the challenges steeper for the next front office/manager. It’d be easy if Melendez had pushed Salvador Perez to permanent DH status or if Pratto blew everyone away at first, but neither really happened, so decisions have to be made. Except for Michael A. Taylor, the legacy veterans are pretty much gone, and while Taylor is frequently named as a possible trade candidate, if he were a car, he’s in a situation similar to that of a 1999 Ford Taurus: you’ll probably find a new home for him, but not someone who is going to offer much in return.

Can Pratto hit at the major league level? After all, he didn’t really hit at the minor league level in 2022. Can Melendez play catcher successfully? Is Witt a shortstop? The Royals have to answer these questions, and if they don’t make great strides into doing that in 2023, the season is probably a failure overall. At least they’ve moved on from Ryan O’Hearn. They’ll need to; of hitters yet to make their major league debut, ZiPS only sees Maikel Garcia as having a strong chance at a 10-WAR career. Read the rest of this entry »