For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and next up is the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

Are the A’s the most boring organization in baseball? There are other teams that are in the basement, but the Rockies do outright nuttier things, the Pirates always have a highly interesting player or two, the Tigers bring in the occasional big-name free agent, and the Reds have a few compelling pitchers. Looking around the diamond, the A’s are safely above replacement level nearly everywhere, but outside of a few players, such as Esteury Ruiz, it doesn’t feel like there’s any upside scenario compelling enough to cancel out all of the bland, featureless gray. Not to pick on Jace Peterson, but he feels like a pickup emblematic of this team: he’s cheap and he’s been useful at times, but no matter what happens, he’s likely to just be the Jace Peterson we know. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the two teams at the top and bottom, respectively, of the MLB payroll hierarchy, the New York Mets and Oakland Athletics, touching on the Mets’ signings of Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga, and David Robertson, the A’s trading away Sean Murphy, and what a vast disparity in spending does and doesn’t signify for MLB’s competitive balance. They also banter about the other teams’ ends of that three-team trade, the state of the NL East, the Giants’ starting-pitcher signings, a reported Padres offer, the Blue Jays’ and Twins’ latest additions, Munetaka Murakami news, and more, plus a Past Blast from 1941.

Audio intro: Billy Joel, “Last of the Big Time Spenders”
Audio outro: Sex Bob-Omb, “Threshold”

Link to Patrick Dubuque on Cohen
Link to Longenhagen on Senga
Link to Baumann on Mets spending
Link to Rosenthal on owners
Link to Rosenthal on Murphy
Link to Baumann on Murphy
Link to Law on Murphy
Link to Petriello on Murphy
Link to FG payroll page
Link to team catcher WAR
Link to SP depth charts
Link to 2005 team payrolls
Link to FG post on Manaea
Link to FG post on Bassitt
Link to FG on Vázquez/Zunino
Link to Marlins article
Link to Padres report
Link to Kovalchuk article
Link to Murakami news
Link to Ben’s SNL oral history
Link to 1941 story source
Link to Lefty Grove bio
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet
Link to Secret Santa FB thread
Link to share of team Ks sheet

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Catching is the most taxing position in baseball. Day in and day out, it grinds on the players who attempt it. Catchers almost never play a full season, because it’s just plain harder to catch two days in a row than play the field on those days. Mathematically, that means fewer stars, because catchers have fewer plate appearances to excel in. That warps the market for free-agent catchers; in a given year, there might be only one or two full-time starters available at the position.

If you’re a team looking for a catcher, that puts you in a bind. This year’s market is a great example; I can name plenty of teams that “needed a catcher” coming into this offseason, but there were only two at the top of the market, and that’s if you count Sean Murphy, whom the A’s traded to Atlanta on Monday. Short of that, Willson Contreras was at the top by himself, and the Cardinals signed him earlier this month. That means the other teams who “needed a catcher” had to look a tier down. Speaking of which: the Twins signed Christian Vázquez to a three-year deal worth $30 million. Not long after, the Guardians signed Mike Zunino to a one-year deal for $6 million. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2019 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

As much as Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte was a pillar of the Joe Torre-era Yankees dynasty. The tall Texan lefty played such a vital role on 13 pinstriped playoff teams and seven pennant winners — plus another trip to the World Series during his three-year run with Houston — that he holds several major postseason records. In fact, no pitcher ever started more potential series clinchers, both in the World Series and the postseason as a whole.

For as important as Pettitte was to the “Core Four” (Williams always gets the short end of the stick on that one) that anchored five championships from 1996 to 2009 — and to an Astros team that reached its first World Series in ’05 — he seldom made a case as one of the game’s top pitchers. High win totals driven by excellent offensive support helped him finish in the top five of his leagues’ Cy Young voting four times, but only three times did he place among the top 10 in ERA or WAR, and he never ranked higher than sixth in strikeouts. He made just three All-Star teams.

Indeed, Pettitte was more plow horse than racehorse. A sinker- and cutter-driven groundballer whose pickoff move was legendary, he was a championship-level innings-eater, a grinder rather than a dominator, a pitcher whose strong work ethic, mental preparation, and focus — visually exemplified by his peering in for the sign from the catcher with eyes barely visible underneath the brim of his cap — compensated for his lack of dazzling stuff. Ten times he made at least 32 starts, a mark that’s tied for seventh in the post-1994 strike era. Within that span, his total of 10 200-inning seasons is tied for third, and his 13 seasons of qualifying for the ERA title with an ERA+ of 100 or better is tied for first with two other lefties, Mark Buehrle (also on this ballot) and CC Sabathia. He had his ups and downs in the postseason, but only once during his 18-year career (2004, when he underwent season-ending elbow surgery) was he unavailable to pitch once his team made the playoffs. Read the rest of this entry »

Rarely can we point to an exact moment in time that turned us into who we are today. Our current selves are a culmination of all the experiences we’ve had since birth, good or bad, and their immediate and enduring effects. Motivational speakers claim to recall pivotal, life-altering instances with vivid detail, but not everyone has a story dramatic enough to earn themselves a personal soapbox.

The same goes for baseball players. There is no single game, inning, or plate appearance that molded Mike Trout into the comically talented slugger he is now. One day he was a modest teenager from New Jersey, and seemingly the next a generational hitter. In reality, thousands upon thousands of moments are scattered in between, but you can’t just walk up to one of them, isolate it, and declare it “the game Mike Trout became Mike Trout.”

Which is sort of what I’m going to do with Nick Lodolo.

Don’t get me wrong; I won’t spend the entire article trying to prove that, yes, this is when Lodolo took the next step. In fact, I have no idea if it’s something he’ll even hold onto. Young pitchers tinker with their approaches and repertoires all the time, and what I’m about to describe might be one of many fleeting changes. But there’s a good chance it’s significant. Lodolo, after this vaguely worded moment, became a noticeably better version of himself. And I don’t think the ways in which he improved came together on a whim; they make too much sense. Read the rest of this entry »

The start of a new prospect list cycle provides a nice, natural time for a sweeping update of my analysis around the international prospects I think readers should know about. Some international pros have already inked free agent deals this offseason, while others have created great anticipation for an eventual move to MLB. In a month, a new class of international amateur players will begin to sign. This week, the International Players tab on The Board will be updated with new scouting reports and information concerning the various segments of the international player population, largely surrounding pro players in Asia and the contingent of teenagers mostly from Latin America who will sign in January. We’re going to publish these in batches throughout the week, with a focus on KBO players today, Japanese players thereafter, and international amateurs at the end of the week. Because they’ve already signed, we’ve also pushed info on Japanese pros Masataka Yoshida and Kodai Senga to The Board; the write-ups you’ll find there are my evaluations, and they each have their own transaction analysis article up at the site as well (I wrote Senga’s, while Justin Choi penned Yoshida’s).

This market is important because players coming to the U.S. from Asian leagues, including many whose pro careers began as MLB minor leaguers, often make an impact on big league contending teams. Chris Flexen 플렉센, Miles Mikolas, Brooks Raley 레일리, Yusei Kikuchi, Yu Darvish, Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, Pierce Johnson, Darin Ruf 러프, and Joely Rodríguez all either got their starts or made a stop in a top Asian pro league, and all were on an MLB playoff roster this season. The data generated by these leagues and warehoused online (including KBO stats here at FanGraphs), combined with my access to video analysis tools like Synergy Sports, and some time spent on the phone with baseball ops and scouting folks who cover (or are part of) international teams, means I can give readers a lay of the land in this space. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the San Francisco Giants, who signed outfielder Mitch Haniger but have come up empty on bigger names including Trea Turner, Kodai Senga, and, most notably, Aaron Judge. On Sunday, though, they got back in action, inking a deal with left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea for two years and $25 million, with an opt-out after 2023.

At age 30, Manaea tested the open market as a free agent for the first time in his career. In 885 career innings, he has almost defined what it means to be a league-average pitcher, with a 4.07 ERA (99 ERA-) and 4.06 FIP (98 FIP-). While he’s made 30 starts in a season just once and missed almost the entire 2019 season with injury, he’s been consistently available throughout his career and has averaged over 5.5 innings per start, well above average in today’s game. While Manaea had a very good 2021 season, during which he set a career high in strikeouts while walking a minuscule 5.4% of batters and posting an 88 FIP-, his performance largely regressed after being traded to the Padres just before Opening Day this year. His strikeout rate fell, his walk rate went from elite to average, and his home run rate spiked, leading to a career-worst 4.96 ERA even in a lowered offensive environment.

So what caused this significant regression in performance? First, let’s examine Manaea’s pitch mix. The bread and butter of his arsenal is a low-90s sinker that he throws over 60% of the time, but its true shape lies somewhere between that of a sinker and a four-seam fastball. In 2022, the pitch had 2.4 fewer inches of drop than other sinkers thrown in the same velocity band, with about an inch less horizontal run. Read the rest of this entry »

Masyn Winn has a high ceiling as a position player. Rated the best athlete in the St. Louis system by Baseball America, the 20-year-old shortstop is No. 2 in our Cardinals prospects rankings and No. 55 in our Top 100. Drafted 54th overall in 2020 out of Kingwood (Tex.) High School, Winn is coming off of a season where he slashed .283/.364/.468 with 12 home runs and 43 stolen bases between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield. His summer included an appearance in the 2022 All-Star Futures Game.

He could very well be a pitcher… or a two-way player. As our lead prospect evaluator Eric Longenhagen explained back in July, Winn “was a two-way amateur with huge arm strength,” and while no one was projecting him as the next Shohei Ohtani — a unicorn, he’s not — there is no denying his unique skillset. Winn had a throw from shortstop clocked at 100.5 mph during the Futures Game.

Winn discussed his pitching background and the possibility of him one day returning to the mound during his October/November stint in the Arizona Fall League.

———

David Laurila: I’m especially interested in your positional background. Why are you an infielder now, and not a pitcher?

Masyn Winn: “I’m not a pitcher because the Cardinals and I decided that’s the easier route to go. Hitting… I mean, it’s a lot easier to pick the glove back up and go back on the mound than it is to pick a bat back up. In our thought process, if I make it as a hitter, that’s fantastic. If not, I’ll just fall back to pitching. I think that’s a good plan because of how hard hitting is. Taking a couple years off and then trying to go back to it would be a little tough.”

Laurila: When was the decision made?

Winn: “I ended up throwing one inning at the end of last year. We were going to do a throwing program the last six weeks or so, but I ended up tweaking my arm a little bit, so during the offseason we decided to shut it down and just focus on hitting.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Oakland Athletics are in search of a new ballpark, either within Oakland or elsewhere — most likely Las Vegas. If and when that comes to pass, the aging Coliseum will probably be torn down. And here’s where the A’s lose me: They seem to be under the impression that their active players must all be evacuated in the form of being traded to other organizations before the ballpark is destroyed.

The Atlanta Braves were in no hurry to disabuse Oakland of this notion, as they pried catcher Sean Murphy from Oakland’s clutches Monday afternoon as part of a three-team deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Four weeks ago I wrote about the trade market for Murphy, made expendable in Oakland by the emergence of Shea Langeliers, who came over from the Braves in the Matt Olson trade. Therein, I specifically noted the Braves as a team that should not trade for Murphy, owing to Atlanta’s surfeit of catchers: Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras.

Sure enough, with Murphy coming in, not one but two catchers are heading out. Contreras is headed north, while third-stringer — and longtime Brewers backup — Manny Piña will go to Oakland. Speedster Esteury Ruiz is also headed down the John Jaha Highway from Milwaukee to Oakland, and no fewer than five pitchers fill out this salad bar of a trade: Freddy Tarnok, Kyle Muller and Royber Salinas from Atlanta to Oakland, Joel Payamps from Oakland to Milwaukee, and Justin Yeager from Atlanta to Milwaukee.

Here’s the entire three-team, nine-player deal in table form, for clarity’s sake.

Nine players makes for a big trade, but nevertheless, let’s go through each name in at least some detail before drawing conclusions. Read the rest of this entry »

When I read today’s ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays, I was struck by one clear weakness: starting pitching depth. The team boasts an impressive lineup across the board, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. the closest thing to a weak spot. Toronto also has two borderline aces in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

That sounds great, but the fourth and fifth starters are projected for a combined 1.7 WAR, which is wildly uninspiring. That hardly seems like a smart plan for a presumptive playoff team, but the Jays are no dummies. Those projections are now outdated — sorry Dan! — because Chris Bassitt is headed north on a three-year, $63 million deal, as Jeff Passan first reported.

Bassitt isn’t the best pitcher to reach free agency this season, but he’s squarely in the top tier. I ranked him 14th among the top 50 free agents this offseason, with only four pitchers ahead of him. Rational observers could certainly differ on that; he’s at the head of a large pack of starters who I think will deliver roughly equivalent value over the next few years. But the general point holds: he’s the kind of pitcher that you probably don’t want starting your first game of the playoffs but that you’d be ecstatic to have as a third starter. Read the rest of this entry »