As of Thursday night, the Mets’ starting rotation featured Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, and a sentient ball of string who showed promise in Low-A. Fine, I made up the last one, but if you told the Mets front office about this ball of string, they’d at least ask you for its Trackman data. A seemingly unending string of injuries left the team grasping for pitching — any pitching at all. Enter Rich Hill, in a trade with the Rays:

We’ve acquired left-handed pitcher Rich Hill from Tampa Bay in exchange for right-handed pitcher Tommy Hunter and minor league catcher Matt Dyer. https://t.co/P24Fo2HoYd

— New York Mets (@Mets) July 23, 2021

At a very basic level, the Mets had to make this trade. Jacob deGrom is on the shelf. David Peterson broke his foot walking around. Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard aren’t ready. Joey Lucchesi tore his UCL. Robert Stock, who was already 10th or so on the depth chart, strained his hamstring. Forget replacement level — Hill represents an upgrade from subterranean level. To some extent, any trade at all would be a win, in that it would leave them able to field a roster.

But Hill isn’t merely roster depth. He’s one of the most interesting pitchers in baseball, a curve-and-fastball machine who has spent years pumping sub-90 mph gas past hitters while bamboozling them with a dazzling array of breaking balls. Heck, earlier this year he was named the AL Pitcher of the Month (it’s not the most prestigious award, but it’s an award) in May, when he posted a 0.78 ERA over 34.2 innings.

Of course, there are other months in the year, and the rest of Hill’s 2021 hasn’t gone nearly so well. In total he sported a 3.87 ERA and 4.55 FIP with the Rays, both of which are the highest marks he’s posted since bursting back onto the scene in 2015. His 9.9% swinging strike rate is better only than his abbreviated 2020 season, and he wasn’t exactly great then either. There’s a strong chance that Hill’s 2021 season will be his last stand. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Wilson has received mixed reviews since he was drafted 15th overall by the Los Angeles Angels out of North Carolina State University in 2019. He’s also changed organizations. The 23-year-old (as of earlier this week) shortstop was traded to San Francisco that same winter as part of a budget-driven deal centered around the contract of Zack Cozart. With just 46 professional games under his belt, Wilson came into the current campaign No. 11 on our Giants Top Prospects list.

The mixed reviews have included assessments that begged for clarification.

When I spoke with Wilson a week ago, I shared that I’d read that his swing is short, and also that it has changed. I’d also seen that he doesn’t project to hit for power, yet he’d put up solid home run numbers in college. Moreover, he already has double-digit dingers this season between High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond.

Could he share his thoughts on the above?

“A lot of the projection stuff is up to interpretation,” replied Wilson, who received his promotion on July 6. “I feel like I’ve done a pretty good job of hitting for power. I hit a lot of doubles, and I’ve hit more home runs than I think a lot of people have projected. That’s always a good thing.”

Asked why he’s shown more power than many expected, the Kings Mountain, North Carolina native provided a rock solid — if not somewhat unexpected — answer. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the new name and look of Cleveland’s MLB team, the Guardians, then react to the Rays trading for Nelson Cruz and dealing away Rich Hill, analyze a new electronic system for sending signs from catchers to pitchers that’s about to be tested in A ball, and salute Juan Soto’s post-Home Run Derby hot streak. Then (38:42) they bring on FanGraphs writers Ben Clemens and Kevin Goldstein to talk about their just-completed ranking of the 50 players with the most trade value, touching on how the series’ sausage was made, the most divisive players, the toughest omissions, valuing pitchers vs. hitters, evaluating Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Max Kepler, Ramón Laureano, and other players, synthesizing stats and scouting info (and production and pay), what they expect at this year’s trade deadline, and how teams’ behavior at the deadline has changed (plus a postscript on historic pitching matchups and more alternate cycles).

Audio intro: Lou Reed, "Guardian Angel"
Audio interstitial: The Bats, "Trade in Silence"
Audio outro: Sloan, "I Can Feel It"

Link to Guardians announcement video
Link to Guardians logo and lettering
Link to Guardians uniforms
Link to story on Tom Hanks and Cleveland
Link to article about the Guardians name selection
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Cruz trade
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to report on electronic signs system
Link to story on Soto and the Derby
Link to story about the Derby “curse”
Link to Trade Value series

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When the Angels designated Albert Pujols for assignment in early May, it seemed as if the decorated slugger had reached the end of the line, especially given the rumors that circulated in February that the 2021 season could be his last. And at the time of the announcement, he was slashing just .198/.250/.372 in 92 plate appearances and amid his fifth-consecutive below-replacement level season. But after clearing waivers, Pujols drew interest from three to four different teams, with the Dodgers coming out of nowhere to sign him to a major league deal at the minimum salary for the rest of the season.

Jay Jaffe wrote about the Dodgers’ acquisition of Pujols at the time and how he could be most effectively used: as a starter at first base, specifically against left-handed pitching. Still, Jay didn’t think the Pujols experiment would endure, especially as Los Angeles’ lineup regained its health, and predicted that the future Hall of Famer would end up taking his final cuts with the Cardinals in September. And though that might still be the case, Pujols has actually produced reasonably well for the Dodgers, providing a good-enough bat to warrant penciling him in the lineup, especially against southpaws.

A .266/.298/.476 slash line isn’t world-beating by any means, but even putting up above-average production is a huge success given where Pujols’ offensive numbers have resided in recent seasons. In fact, he just completed a 30-game stretch from May 29 to July 16 in which he posted a 147 wRC+ on the back of a .313/.341/.588 slash line. It was the best output Pujols has seen in years, even in a sample as small as 30 games:

Read the rest of this entry »

This year’s edition of baseball has produced some fascinating hitting performances. We’ve written a lot about Yasmani Grandal and his unprecedented batting line (a 134 wRC+ despite hitting .188). He’s done that in part by swinging at just 30.2% of pitches that he sees in ‘21, lowest in the majors by a wide margin. Max Muncy has also been incredibly selective, offering at just 35.4% pitches, the lowest rate of his career. These players have found that swinging less helps their game, but generally it’s not a trend that we’re seeing across the league. If anything, league-wide swing rates have increased (albeit marginally); this season’s 46.8 Swing% is the third highest since 2000. For every Muncy, there’s also a hitter who likes to swing at just about everything. Salvador Perez and Tim Anderson, for example, have swing rates of 60.3% and 59.3%, respectively.

The outliers are certainly interesting, but just how little can a big leaguer swing and still get away with it? What we’re talking about here are O-Swing% and Z-Swing%. By themselves, these are telling statistics, as hitters with a high O-Swing% strike out a lot more than those with a low O-Swing%.

For context, a 5% increase in O-Swing rate on average results in an increase of 1% to strikeout rate. This relationship is even stronger when it comes to drawing walks.

So far in ‘21, a 5% decrease in O-Swing rate on average results in an increase of 2% in walk rate.

Read the rest of this entry »

With a week to go until the trade deadline, the Rays struck a blow against the other contenders on Thursday night, acquiring designated hitter Nelson Cruz and pitcher Calvin Faucher from the Twins for pitchers Drew Strotman and Joe Ryan. Seemingly immune to changes in offensive environment and the arrow of time, Cruz is having a typical Cruz season at 41, hitting .294/.370/.537 with a 142 wRC+, 19 homers, and a 1.8 WAR, the latter a spicy number for a DH in only 85 games.

Tampa Bay’s lineup has been decent but well below the level of the elite offenses in the American League, ranking eighth in wRC+ and fifth in overall runs scored. The outfield has been a particular work in progress when it comes to offense. Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips have both been excellent defensively, but neither are run producers, and 2020 postseason standout Manuel Margot has been rather pumpkin-ified this year. Adding Cruz to the mix allows the Rays to use Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena daily in the corners. The primary downside here is that Meadows has a rather long injury history for a player just in his mid-20s, and playing in the field every day could increase the risk of another trip to the IL. I think it’s worth the risk; the Yankees and Jays are slowly drifting out of the divisional race, and the Red Sox are dangerous just as long as their pitching rotation stays healthy.

Adding Cruz was worth about five percentage points of divisional probability for the Rays in the ZiPS projections, shifting the race from a fairly balanced 55/45 race to one tipping a bit in favor of Tampa Bay. Expect many more changes before we flip the calendars!

Read the rest of this entry »

2:02

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to another edition of my chat, this one falling on the same day as my father’s 80th birthday. I’ve just completed my annual Replacement Level Killers series, the last installment of which — center fielder and DHs — went up just a couple of hours ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-center-…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: I briefly addressed the Rays’ Nelson Cruz acquisition therein, but here’s Dan Szymborski’s writeup, freshly minted for your enjoyment https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tampa-bay-obtains-a-cruz-missile/

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Not sure how soon we’ll have analysis of the Mets trading for Rich Hill —  I mean, Dick Mountain — but soon enough.

2:05	Jay Jaffe: I think so. He’s having an excellent season, making his 2nd All-Star team, comes with a year of club control so the return will be strogner, and he’s versatile enough to fit any team with an OF, 1B, or even DH need.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: Still think the Padres and Yankees are the most likely destinations

Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above. While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a closer look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. As with some of the previous entries in this series, a few of these situations include midseason turnarounds where returns to normalcy are camouflaged by early-season struggles; one problem spot, that of the Rays’ designated hitters, was shored up in impressive fashion with Thursday night’s acquisition of Nelson Cruz from the Twins. As with previous entries in this series, won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through yesterday (July 22, in this case), but statistics through the day before (July 21).

Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
Level & Affiliate: High-A Fort Wayne Age: 23 Org Rank: 8 FV: 40+
Line: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 6 K

Notes
San Diego acquired Espinoza in the Drew Pomeranz trade in 2016, but he was shutdown before the start of the 2017 due to elbow discomfort. That began five years of developmental delays in the form of multiple Tommy John surgeries and the canceled 2020 minor league season. Now the 23-year-old is back on the mound and looking to recapture the stuff that once earned him top prospect status.

His longest outings this season have gone three innings (a mark he’s matched five times), so his 2.2 innings of work is on par with his understandably stringent workload restrictions. The six hits he allowed were all singles and the ones that came in the first and second innings were all weakly hit, though well placed. Espinoza’s outing ended when those softer hits turned into more solid contact in the third, but not before recording a season-high six strikeouts. His pitch count was already pushing 70 by the end of his short outing. On paper that may seem like cause for concern regarding Espinoza’s command and feel to pitch, which he struggled with earlier this year in his sole spring training appearance with the big league club. But that wasn’t the case on Thursday; the only walk he issued was to the first batter of the game, after which only one other hitter saw a three-ball count, and many of the pitches that were called for balls were extremely close and could just as easily have been called for strikes. Read the rest of this entry »