FanGraphs Baseball

Will Warren has come a long way since the New York Yankees selected him in the eighth round of the 2021 draft out of Southeastern Louisiana University. He has also made big strides since he was first featured here at FanGraphs following a 2022 season that saw him reach Double-A. Discovering that his four-seam fastball is a viable weapon is a big reason why. When I interviewed Warren four years ago, his preferred offerings were a sweeper and one-seam sinker.

His numbers in the current campaign are rock solid. Building on a 2025 first full big league season in which he went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, the 27-year-old right-hander has toed the rubber 17 times to the tune of a 3.73 ERA and a 3.57 FIP over 89 1/3 innings. Further establishing himself in the Yankees’ starting rotation, he counts seven wins among his 10 decisions.

How and why did Warren go from a hurler who relied heavily on a sinker-sweeper combination to one who aggressively attacks batters with a 93.7-mph four-seamer? Read the rest of this entry »

Recent Sunday Notes columns have included soccer segments with Jake Burger (Tottenham Hotspur) and Tommy Kahnle (Bayern Munich) discussing their respective allegiances, as well as their thoughts on the World Cup. This week we’ll hear from Sean Doolittle. The Washington Nationals’ assistant pitching coach is a devoted fan of Leeds United.

“It really kind of took off in 2020,” explained Doolittle, who prior to joining the coaching ranks made 463 relief appearances while playing for four teams, primarily Oakland and Washington, from 2012-2022. “Harvey Sharman, our director of medical services — the head of our training staff group [with the Nationals] — was a “physio” at Leeds for 15 years before he came to the states. I learned a lot about the club from him. Before that I was more of a casual soccer fan, playing a lot of FIFA on Xbox.

“They were in the Championship,” continued Doolittle, referring to England’s second-tier league. “They started up before us after the shutdown, and I remember watching those games and kind of jumping on the bandwagon. They won and got promoted to the Premier League. I was hooked after that. It’s since been an up-and-down couple of years, but last season [a mid-table finish] was really fun.”

Doolittle told me that his Leeds allegiance “isn’t super-influencing” the way he has been watching the World Cup, although he is very much aware of how the team’s players — four in all — have been faring on the sport’s biggest stage. He cited how Gabriel Gudmundsson (Sweden), Ao Tanaka (Japan), and Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands) have all seen their countries eliminated, while Brenden Aaronson still has a chance to hoist a trophy with Team USA. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Fourth of July! To commemorate the United States’ Semiquincentennial, I’m going to run through some fun baseball stats that feature the number 250, and also ask a few trivia questions, which you can answer in the comments. As of Thursday morning, there is one player in MLB history with exactly 250 career home runs. He’s an active player for an NL West team. Can you name him? Seven players have recorded exactly 250 doubles in their career; only one of them is in the Hall of Fame. The six non-Hall of Famers are Ozzie Albies, Travis Hafner, Deivi Cruz, Bruce Bochte, Irish Meusel, and Jake Daubert. The Hall of Famer is a 19th century catcher. Who is it?

There are 25 members of the 250 Home Run/250 Stolen Base Club, nine of whom are Hall of Famers. Sorted by home runs, those nine are Willie Mays (660 HR, 339 SB), Andre Dawson (438, 314), Carlos Beltrán (435, 312), Rickey Henderson (297, 1,406), Craig Biggio (291, 414), Ryne Sandberg (282, 344), Joe Morgan (268, 689), Derek Jeter (260, 358), and Robin Yount (251, 271). Two others are active: José Ramírez (295, 311) and Jose Altuve (263, 326). Can you name the other 14 members of the 250/250 Club? Lastly, seven players have tallied at least 250 hits in a season. Six of them — Ichiro Suzuki (262 in 2004), George Sisler (257 in 1920), Bill Terry (254 in 1930), Al Simmons (253 in 1925), Chuck Klein (250 in 1930), and Rogers Hornsby (250 in 1922) — are Hall of Famers. Can you name the one non-Hall of Famer?

I’ll reveal the answers in next week’s mailbag. In this week’s edition, we’ll answer your questions on challenging the first pitch of a game, sustained runs of low playoff odds, a team of Frank Thomases and Luis Aparicios, and more. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

In the fifth incarnation of a time-honored tradition that recurs every 500-ish episodes, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by ex-co-host Sam Miller and The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee to draft assorted things that they like about baseball.

Audio intro: Sam Miller, “Effectively Wild Theme (Ken Maeda’s Nice ‘n’ Easy Remix)”
Audio outro: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to EW wiki page for things drafts
Link to Episode 500 wiki
Link to Episode 996 wiki
Link to Episode 1500 wiki
Link to Episode 2000 wiki
Link to U.S. semiquincentennial wiki
Link to Pebble Hunting
Link to Grant at The Athletic
Link to Ben on pre-WAR value estimates
Link to spaghetti policy research
Link to article on spaghetti research
Link to Devil Rays food policy article
Link to The Roundtable cancellation
Link to O’Neil on bat cracks clip
Link to O’Neil on Bo article 1
Link to O’Neil on Bo article 2
Link to Tracy quote about Harris
Link to Kershaw on McKinstry
Link to Tito Translator post
Link to Murphy on Vargas
Link to Space Jam sound clip
Link to Space Jam video clip
Link to Space Jam quote 2
Link to Space Jam clip 2
Link to Franzke on Stott
Link to Martinez comment
Link to Schneider on Lukes
Link to Kemp quote 1
Link to Kemp quote 2
Link to Baldelli on Vázquez
Link to Cora on Mayer
Link to Roberts on DeLuca
Link to Maddon on Fletcher
Link to Campbell on Andrews
Link to Snitker on Acuña Jr.
Link to Roberts on Betts
Link to Stark on Rollins
Link to supposed Tabler quote
Link to Malone on Counsell
Link to Sandberg quote
Link to Royko on Sandberg
Link to Royko on Kruk
Link to Royko wiki
Link to Kruk and Koch
Link to 1978 Willoughby article
Link to Tomlinson Father’s Day bit
Link to Can’t Hardly Wait scene
Link to Everybody Wants Some!! clip
Link to Sam on sound outside ballpark
Link to Sam on K-strutting
Link to Sam on Brewers challenging
Link to Leeroy Jenkins wiki
Link to The Athletic on Ruiz
Link to best-hitting catchers
Link to 2015 Cozart article
Link to 2015 FG post on Cozart
Link to 2016 FG post on Cozart
Link to 2017 Cozart article
Link to 2017 FG post on Cozart
Link to The Athletic on Cozart
Link to Wong/Chapman story
Link to Sam on “drawing interest”
Link to Sam on SP strike rates
Link to Bill James strike zone quote
Link to Cansecos switcheroo story
Link to Cansecos switcheroo conspiracy
Link to Jolly article
Link to Ben on Twins.com
Link to MLB trademark application
Link to Niekro-on-Niekro homer
Link to Perry home run story
Link to Gameday 3D explainer
Link to previous Gameday 3D banter
Link to Defector on Gameday 3D glitches
Link to other glitch 1
Link to other glitch 2
Link to other glitch 3
Link to other glitch 4
Link to other glitch 5
Link to other glitch 6
Link to other glitch 7
Link to other glitch 8
Link to other glitch 9
Link to Grubb on Gameday glitches
Link to deleted Gameday 3D post
Link to possible source of deleted clip

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about tough times for a few EW favorites and Ben’s pre-podcast injury, then (15:00) discuss the response to Cade Cavalli telling Willson Contreras to “Sit down, boy.” After that (38:10), they cover the MLBPA’s proposals to limit certain types of transactions, a continued tightening of the leashes on starting pitchers, Paul Skenes’s recent struggles, the unlikely win-loss records of Tanner Bibee and Aaron Ashby (and an embarrassing Cooper Ingle error), Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong hot streaks and PCA’s newfound patience, recent swoons by the Braves and Yankees and surges by the Marlins and Rangers, what the Red Sox and Tigers should do at the deadline, and more.

Audio intro: Philip Tapley and Michael Stokes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Sean .P, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MLBTR on Brebbia
Link to MLBTR on Rooker
Link to Rooker/Pasquantino pod
Link to MLBTR on Lin
Link to MLBTR on Lasko
Link to Brussels sprouts episode
Link to Venezuela earthquakes story
Link to MLB/MLBPA Venezuela donation
Link to Cavalli/Contreras video
Link to story on first Contreras ejection
Link to ump’s ejection explanation
Link to story about Contreras/Cavalli incident
Link to Cavalli apology
Link to Toboni comments
Link to Bixby census data
Link to The Athletic on Cavalli
Link to punishments for players
Link to MLBTR on the suspensions
Link to Contreras Instagram comment
Link to Contreras Instagram report
Link to The Athletic on player proposals
Link to MLBTR on player proposals
Link to Ben on pitcher roster restrictions
Link to BP on rampant DFAing
Link to BP on rampant optioning
Link to MLBPA prop-bet proposal
Link to Crizer on Skenes, etc.
Link to Skenes Big Glizzy ad
Link to McClanahan game
Link to Sam on starter usage
Link to Snell no-hitter
Link to familiarity vs. fatigue research
Link to Ingle error
Link to MLB wins leaders
Link to Ashby quotes
Link to RP IP leaders
Link to RP leverage leaders
Link to 23-3 game
Link to Littleton save
Link to Corbin save tweet
Link to PCA fun fact
Link to Swanson fun fact 1
Link to Swanson fun fact 2
Link to fun-fact-finding interview
Link to Woodrum on PCA
Link to NL East playoff odds graph
Link to Defector on the Marlins
Link to Sheehan on the Rangers
Link to Jay on bad defenses
Link to Temecula incident

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Read the rest of this entry »

It has not been a good season for Trea Turner. The two-time batting champion is in the midst of a career-worst season at the plate, hitting for a 79 wRC+ (.239/.287/.368) even after homering in three straight games, including a three-run shot off Pirates ace Paul Skenes on Wednesday night. What’s more, after breaking a streak of three straight below-average seasons at shortstop according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Fielding Run Value last year, he’s not only back in the red, but is tied for last at the position with -8 DRS, while being tied for fifth-worst with -5 FRV. All of which once again marks Turner as a fairly typical Phillies player.

Indeed, through ups and downs that have included four postseason appearances, one trip to the World Series, and two in-season managerial firings, one constant of the Dave Dombrowski era of Phillies baseball has been lousy defense. Since the start of the 2021 season, the team is 100 runs below average according to FRV (the majors’ seventh-lowest mark) and 127 below average according to DRS (fifth-lowest). It hasn’t stopped the Phillies from being competitive — or highly entertaining — though it may have cost them seeding here and there, to say nothing of the way last year’s Division Series against the Dodgers ended. But given the choice between good hitters with questionable gloves and slick fielders with subpar bats, the team has generally gone for the offensive boost and lived or died with the consequences.

Thus it was hardly a surprise that the Phillies ranked second-to-last in my recent aggregation of team defensive metrics, even with right fielder Nick Castellanos — who contributed -41 DRS and -45 FRV from 2022–25 before being released in February — no longer on the team, and Kyle Schwarber more or less a full-time designated hitter. The Phillies’ .672 Defensive Efficiency, the rate at which a team turns batted balls into outs, is lower than all but the Rockies (.669), while their -29 DRS is lower than all but the Twins’ -32. Read the rest of this entry »

After wandering for years, Jake Bauers has found himself in Milwaukee as one of the top hitters of 2026.

I first learned about Bauers because of a stat I made up sometime in 2019, around when Baseball Savant began publishing the attack region perspective of the strike zone. Rather than labeling pitches as simply in or out of the zone, Savant drew the distinction between meatballs, borderline strikes, and various distances beyond. Analysts had made similar observations for as long as PITCHf/x had been around, of course, but this was the first time (to my knowledge) the data was easily searchable, sortable, and available to download. No longer was the concept of plate discipline limited to walks and strikeouts, or even simple chase rate, but we could now look at which players were actually swinging at the right pitches within the zone, too.

At a high level, batters should only swing at pitches in the heart region. At a more granular level, this isn’t entirely true, as things like the count, situation, and swing profile change the calculus from pitch to pitch. But as a general rule, the players who swing at the right pitches are the ones who swing at heart pitches and lay off everything else. This gives us some fairly simple math: Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs Members may have noticed an incredible new feature over the last couple weeks, and today, we’re thrilled to officially announce it. Members now have access to Heat Maps on our leaderboards and player pages. Sean Dolinar has been hard at work for the past month or so putting this together, and now I get to walk you through this Members-exclusive feature. Read the rest of this entry »

Today at FanGraphs, we’re introducing an updated approach to prospect valuation. You can read the announcement here, and also see the new Farm System Rankings for 2026 on The Board. This post is a detailed methodological examination of how we’ve produced our new estimates. It goes over each step of the process in order, and concludes with a sensitivity analysis. If you’re interested in the broad strokes of our new approach, the introductory post will likely suffice. But if you want to see how the sausage is made, read on.

Prospect Classes
We began with Baseball America’s annual Top 100 prospect lists for each year from 2005-2016, plus FanGraphs’ lists for 2017 and 2018. The BA lists serve as a publicly accessible bridge to the current era of FanGraphs prospect writing, and provide a nice through line with Craig Edwards’ earlier research. We took all instances of a prospect being ranked, including duplicates of the same prospect in multiple years. We converted those ordinal rankings into Future Value grades using a two-step process. First, we separated the rankings into pitchers and hitters and created two separate ordinal lists for each year. Second, we adjusted those ordinal rankings between years by a regressed factor based on that class’ major league production. This allowed us to differentiate between classes – without some type of delineation between years, every top overall hitter would receive the same grade, which is contrary to the way we grade prospects.

This method introduces some potential bias. Judging prospects based on how they turned out inherently brings some information from the future into the mix. We decided that this was the best possible way to systematically introduce varying year-over-year quality to an otherwise ordinal-only set of values, and that it also did a good job of replicating the way that grades might have actually been assigned in the past. The top pitching prospect on the 2010 list was Stephen Strasburg. The top pitching prospect on the 2011 list was Julio Teheran. It’s important to differentiate between the likely grade that they would have received. There’s some volatility in relative value assignment at the very top end of the scale based on this methodology, which is addressed in the sensitivity analysis. Read the rest of this entry »