FanGraphs Audio: New Hall President Josh Rawitch Stops By

Episode 938

This week on the show, we welcome the new president of the National Baseball Hall of Fame before a discussion about the New York clubs going in opposite directions.

  • In the first half, David Laurila talks to Josh Rawitch about his new role as they discuss his vision for the Hall of Fame, the most popular features and plaques in the museum, and how much “fame” itself weighs into player voting. They also talk about David insightfully writing back in April that Josh should get the role, and what that was like to read that suggestion from the other end. [2:21]
  • After that, Dan Szymborski is joined by Jay Jaffe to talk about the Yankees and the Mets. Jay recently wrote on “Nasty Néstor” Cortes, who’s came out of nowhere to help to the thriving Yankees rotation. Meanwhile, the Mets are spiraling in the other direction and out of the playoff hunt, and the duo react to the latest bad front office news that arrives live in the middle of recording. [23:29]

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Daily Prospect Notes: 9/2/21

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Robert Hassell III, CF, San Diego Padres
Level & Affiliate: High-A Fort Wayne Age: 20 Org Rank: 4 (72 overall) FV: 50
Line:
3-for-6, 3 HR, 3 K

Notes
On Wednesday night, true to his name, Hassell worked in threes. In his third game since his promotion from Low-A (where he had the third most hits and third highest average on the season), the lefty provided both homers and strikeouts in triplicate. But contrary to last night’s line, the 2020 first-rounder’s season has been characterized neither by excessive power nor a concerning K-rate; he slashed .323/.415/.482 at Low-A with a 138 wRC+, maintaining walk and strikeout rates both in the mid-teens.

While the Wednesday whiffs represent an unconcerning blip in an approach that has otherwise proven far more advanced than his age would let on (he just turned 20 a few weeks ago), the dingers — his first, second, and third at High-A — were a glimpse at the type of power that would be a welcome addition to Hassell’s profile, if he’s able to sustain it. Over the course of the night, he demonstrated his ability to hit balls out to both left and right field, and against both left- and right-handed pitchers.

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Brent Rooker Talks Hitting

Brent Rooker has had an up-and-down rookie campaign. Demoted to Triple-A following an injury-marred April, the 26-year-old outfielder logged a 141 wRC+ with 20 home runs in 62 games with the St. Paul Saints. He’s been less productive, yet no less promising, since returning to the Twins toward the tail end of July. In 153 plate appearances, the No. 35 pick in the 2017 draft has six long balls to go with a a 91 wRC+ and a .304 wOBA.

Those numbers aren’t a mystery to Rooker, nor are the swing analytics that help dictate what he’s doing in the batter’s box. Two partial seasons into what will hopefully be a long and productive big-league career, the former Mississippi State Bulldog is more than just an up-and-coming slugger: he’s a student of hitting.

———

David Laurila: Do you view hitting as more of an art, or as more of a science?

Brent Rooker: “I think the best hitters are a combination of both. They’re very artistic in terms of what they feel and the way their bodies move. They know how to manipulate their bodies to allow them do what they need to do in order to accomplish what they want to accomplish in the box. But I also think the best guys know, statistically and analytically, what they do well and what they don’t do well. They use that to their advantage.

“Obviously, you have guys on both sides of the spectrum. Some guys are more feel guys, and others are more by the numbers and analytics. But again, I think the best guys — the truly best guys — are a combination of both.”

Laurila: That said, do you lean more toward one than the other? Read the rest of this entry »


Seven Pitchers (and Some More Position Players) Who Have Most Helped Their Hall of Fame Cases in 2021

On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. For this dispatch, I’ll first turn my attention to the pitchers, then backtrack to cover a handful of others — position players and pitchers — in a more lightning-round fashion.

For this exercise, I’m focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, that’s the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. For relievers, I’m using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which I’ve examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated.

One other thing to note: since my reference point for “old” WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players’ gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to ’19 and ’20 park factors and tweaks to 2017–20 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/2/21

12:04
Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – can the neural network simulate what the CBA talks are going to look like?  In it’s own unique way of course.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hits too close to home!

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Morninternoon everyone!

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A few minutes late, I was grabbing Wander Franco comps.

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reyes is up there, but so are a number of the triple guys – Vaughan, Lazzeri, Frisch, Furcal, Fernandez

12:05
Matt: Bryce Harper: Under/Accurately/Over rated?   Also at what point do you think NL East is decided?

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The Righty Shift Has Petered Out

There’s this episode of SpongeBob Squarepants that I love, in which Mr. Krabs’ snowballing desire for jellyfish jelly causes SpongeBob to catch more and more jellyfish until none remain. I bring this up because I like to imagine front offices as Mr. Krabs: Over the past few years, they’ve been shifting against more and more hitters, with seemingly no end in sight.

It turns out, however, we might have already reached the peak of infield shifting, at least in terms of volume. Comprehensive shift data dates back to 2016. Since then, here’s the rate of shifts against left- and right-handed batters each season:

This season, we’ve reached a point of stagnation. Teams haven’t budged from the mark they set against lefty hitters in 2020. Moreover, after a steady year-to-year increase, the rate of shifts against righty hitters has actually dropped. What I find more interesting — and ultimately want to dissect — is the latter trend. That teams aren’t looking for new lefties to shift against makes sense, since there’s presumably a limited pool. But righties demonstrate pull-side tendencies, too. If we assume teams are shifting mainly based on pull rates, we’d also expect the number of shifts against righties to keep climbing.

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Jarred Kelenic Keeps Coming Up Empty

In the days leading up to the trade deadline, Jarred Kelenic earned himself a mention in Jay Jaffe’s corner outfield replacement-level killers, a series that analyzes the players who are dragging down contending teams. The idea is to identify positions of need for potential trades to come, but Kelenic’s struggles in the majors weren’t going to force the team to make a deal. Instead, as Jay put it, “this should probably be a sink-or-swim situation unless he’s totally overwhelmed.”

Kelenic has already been in the spotlight because of the Mariners gaming his service time; his performance since his promotion has put him back in it. He got the call on May 13, but simply didn’t hit: In his first 23 games over a total of 92 plate appearances, he slashed .096/.185/.193. He collected just eight hits total and had come up empty in his last 44 plate appearances when the Mariners optioned him back to Triple-A in early June.

After a successful stint at Tacoma — a 137 wRC+ — Kelenic was brought back to Seattle. This time around, the results have been a bit better, but they’re still ugly overall, as he’s gone from a 10 wRC+ in that first stint to a .181/.263/.315 line and 65 wRC+ since his second promotion. Through Tuesday’s action, he’s up to a 45 wRC+ and -1.1 WAR in 64 games:

Jarred Kelenic by Major League Stint
ML Stint PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+
First 92 .096 .185 .193 8.7% 28.3% .177 10
Second 167 .181 .263 .315 9.6% 30.5% .258 65

Even with the improved numbers since his return from Triple-A, Kelenic is still running the 11th-lowest wRC+ among qualified hitters in that time. He’s still not hitting well. But while there may not be one answer for why he is struggling, I believe that there’s a huge plate discipline problem that isn’t entirely captured in the walk and strikeout rates alone. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Texas Rangers Coach Identification Program

Position: Coach Identification Program

Summary: The Texas Rangers are seeking individuals with professional baseball coaching aspirations to participate in the 2021 Coach Identification program during their Fall Instructional League camp in Surprise, AZ. Coach Identification program participants will be immersed as a member of the Texas Rangers Player Development department and have the opportunity to learn from current staff and coordinators. Additionally, program participants will be provided with professional development classes to further their knowledge of specific player development disciplines. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Driveline R&D Data Engineering Intern

Position: R&D Data Engineering Intern

Location: Kent, WA or Remote
Compensation: Seasonal, $2500/mo. No additional benefits.

Start Date: As early as September 15, 2021
End Date: Approximately March 1, 2022, but exceptional applicants may be offered an extension

Candidates will be expected to work ~40 hours per week.

If a candidate decides to relocate to Kent, WA, no financial relocation assistance is offered. However, Driveline will put you in contact with a number of affordable short-term housing options upon accepting the role, if offered.

Summary:
You will spend your time helping collect, organize, and integrate the various data sources under the hood at Driveline Baseball, working with their various stakeholders (Baseball Operations Analysts, the Data Science Team, their Software Engineers, etc) to provide optimal data solutions for various processes, models, and dashboards. These solutions will directly impact training floor operations and data collection systems, special research projects that expand the sphere of baseball knowledge, and aid in consulting with professional players and organizations. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1741: Call Up the Cavalry

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Wander Franco coming into his own, Kevin Newman’s steep offensive falloff post-spring training, a strikeout milestone for Robbie Ray, the Kendall GravemanAbraham Toro trade and promotions/extensions for the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto and Scott Servais, the new-and-improved Blake Snell, Austin Adams’ historic hit-by-pitch pace, Cardinals radio broadcaster Mike Shannon discovering and attempting to explain NFTs on the air, and the difference between bad and good Mets missteps. Then (41:21) they bring on FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to discuss September roster expansion, touching on the developmental implications of going from 40-man to 28-man rosters, the most promising prospects who could debut this month and impact pennant races or the playoffs (including Joe Ryan, Nate Pearson, Shane Baz, and Hunter Greene), the remaking of Padres pitcher MacKenzie Gore, post-deadline desperation, the Nationals’ Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, and Riley Adams, the Royals’ Nicky Lopez and Bobby Witt Jr., and other notable names.

Audio intro: Frank Sinatra, "September in the Rain"
Audio interstitial: Frank Sinatra, "September Song"
Audio outro: Frazey Ford, "September Fields"

Link to Franco streak article
Link to Dan Szymborski on Franco
Link to article on Newman’s spring
Link to spring training stats study
Link to B-Ref career K/9 leaderboard
Link to article about Snell’s reinvention
Link to article about Adams
Link to article on Shannon and NFTs
Link to Zack Scott news
Link to roster expansion explainer
Link to list of September 1 callups
Link to Gore mechanics video
Link to Eric on AL impact pitchers
Link to Carmen Ciardiello on Lopez
Link to Adam’s EW Wiki post
Link to EW Wiki
Link to EW Wiki sign-up sheet
Link to EW emails database

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