The Cubs approached the trade deadline with pitching as their top priority. They traded for Michael Soroka on Wednesday to shore up the starting rotation and added Andrew Kittredge to the bullpen later that night. That didn’t stop them from making a trade to improve their hitters: Getting in on the Twins’ Thursday fire sale, Chicago acquired utilityman Willi Castro for two pitching prospects, Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong. And right before the buzzer, the Cubs also acquired left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers from the Pirates for outfield prospect Ivan Brethowr. This was the second swap Rogers was part of within a roughly 27-hour span, after he went from the Reds to the Pirates in Wednesday afternoon’s Ke’Bryan Hayes deal.

The Cubs have one of the best lineups in baseball. They lead the majors in runs scored and the National League in wRC+. So they didn’t necessarily need to upgrade their offense before the deadline. Castro’s calling card is his versatility, and that’s the primary reason they acquired him. Just this year, he’s played every position but catcher and first base. Defensively, he’s probably a little in over his head at either of the premium up-the-middle positions — his career FRV at shortstop is -3 and -2 in center field — but he’s perfectly acceptable as a second baseman (2 FRV) or in either outfield corner (5 in left, -2 in right). In previous years, he was also slightly above average at third (2 FRV) before taking a step back this season (-3), though small-sample caveats certainly apply for his defensive metrics at any specific position because of how much he’s moved around. Only once has he logged more than 500 innings at an individual position in a season, and that was back in 2021 when he played 713 2/3 innings at second base with the Tigers.

That said, he is way more than just a multi-positional backup. At the plate, Castro has been solidly above average since joining the Twins in 2023; during those first seasons in Minnesota, he posted a combined 107 wRC+ and accumulated 5.4 WAR. This season, his offensive production has been slightly better — .245/.335/.407, 109 wRC+ — than in recent years because he’s tapping into his power more. He’s already smacked 10 home runs in 344 plate appearances after hitting a career-high 12 last year across nearly 300 more trips to the plate. That he is a switch-hitter only adds to his flexibility. He has been platoon neutral for his career, but he’s hitting left-handed hurlers much better this year (131 wRC+) than he has righties (100). Castro has been worth 1.1 WAR this season, a step back from his last two years despite his offensive improvements because his defensive value has declined. Some of this is due to a dip in his defensive metrics — his only plus position this season by FRV is left field — but it also has to do with the positional adjustment, as he’s spent more innings this season at positions further down the defensive spectrum; after playing 465 2/3 innings at shortstop in 2024 and another 211 1/3 in center field, he’s logged just 26 at shortstop this year to go along with a one-inning cameo in center. Read the rest of this entry »

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At the time of this writing, the Kansas City Royals’ playoff odds sit at 12%. They’re 54-55, 3.5 games back of the third AL Wild Card, packed in tight with a bunch of average teams chasing the major contenders, including the Rangers, Guardians, Rays, and Angels. (I’m going to go ahead and count the Twins out.) It’s a tough spot. You don’t necessarily want to go all in with a 12% chance of making the playoffs, but it’s a good enough shot that a sell-off would go down pretty poorly.

Threading this needle with precision, the Royals made a series of moves that filled key roster holes without gambling away any significant long-term pieces. The first of those went down yesterday morning, when they picked up two solid, controllable right-handers in Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek in exchange for backup catcher Freddy Fermin.

Later in the day, the Royals made two more trades. The first further shored up a depleted rotation; the second improved a truly abysmal outfield. First, they brought in lanky left-hander Bailey Falter from the Pirates, parting with up-and-down lefty Evan Sisk and Callan Moss, a first baseman with a .790 OPS in High-A who went undrafted in 2024. And a few minutes after the deadline passed, Jon Heyman reported that they’d picked up Mike Yastrzemski from the Giants for A-ball hurler Yunior Marte. Read the rest of this entry »

And so ends another action-packed trade deadline. It came in with a whimper, with a quiet Adam Frazier trade to the Royals, but it ended in an exciting crescendo during which seemingly every reliever in baseball moved to a new team in a 45-minute period. Whoever said comparison is the thief of joy had never heard of the ZiPS projections, here to distill that bullpen beauty pageant (and the rest of deadline period’s action) into some cold hard numbers estimating what all these moves actually mean in the big picture.

Deciding who “won” or “lost” the trade deadline is a fairly tricky philosophical question, since different teams come into deadline day with different goals. So instead, I’ll focus on a simpler question: Who helped their 2025 chances the most? That’s a more straightforward inquiry, one a projection system can assess. For this, I used my usual methodology, first projecting the league as it currently stands using the full-fat ZiPS projections, and then re-projecting the league as it stands, but having unwound every transaction made since the Frazier trade on July 16. Read the rest of this entry »

As Thursday’s 6 PM deadline approached, the New York Yankees finally made their big bullpen moves, first trading for closer David Bednar from the Pittsburgh Pirates and sending back catcher Rafael Flores, catcher Edgleen Perez, and outfielder Brian Sanchez. Bednar, with a year of arbitration remaining next season, has allowed a 2.37 ERA and a 1.96 FIP while striking out 51 batters and walking only 10 in 38 innings this year.

Also donning (non-purple) pinstripes is Jake Bird, whom the Yankees acquired from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for second baseman Roc Riggio and left-handed starter Ben Shields. Bird, in his fourth year with the Rockies, has a 4.73 ERA for the season, but a much sunnier 3.45 FIP, and he has struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings, easily the best mark of his career.

But that wasn’t quite enough for the Yankees, and as the clock approached the top of the hour, they picked up Camilo Doval from the San Francisco Giants for three prospects: catcher-third baseman Jesus Rodriguez, right-handed starter Trystan Vrieling, and first baseman Parks Harber. Read the rest of this entry »

You might’ve been worried that the Brewers had slept through the trade deadline. Maybe general manager Matt Arnold had overslept, or maybe the Twins were hogging all the cellphone bandwidth in the Midwest. But no, sure enough, Milwaukee got on the board right at the last minute, first by sending Nestor Cortes to San Diego, and then by making an unusual trade for Arizona teammates Shelby Miller and Jordan Montgomery.

Wow, that’s a reliever with a sub-2.00 ERA and a guy who pitched the Rangers to a championship two years ago. For just a player to be named later or cash? Sounds like a steal… wait, both of them are hurt, and both of them are free agents at the end of this year. That can’t be right. Read the rest of this entry »

In the flurry of action just minutes before the trade deadline, two postseason contenders made moves to reinforce their starting rotations with starters looking to regain their previous form before hitting free agency. The Red Sox traded prospects James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard to the Dodgers in return for Dustin May, while the Padres continued their deadline fusillade by acquiring Nestor Cortes, 18-year-old infield prospect Jorge Quintana and cash, sending Brandon Lockridge to the Brewers. The Brewers will cover roughly $2.4 million of the money still owed to Cortes, with the Padres covering the prorated minimum salary for the rest of the season.

Let’s start in Boston. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the deal was going down, while FanSided’s Robert Murray and MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported the prospect return. The Red Sox could certainly use rotation help. They rank in the middle of the pack in both ERA and FIP, but once you separate out ace Garrett Crochet, things look much less rosy; Brayan Bello is the only other starter with an ERA below 3.80. Offseason deals for Walker Buehler, Patrick Sandoval, and Justin Wilson made it clear that the Red Sox are eager to find upside in pitchers who are still finding their way after a recent injury, and May certainly fits the bill.

With palpable Walugi energy, upper-90s velocity, and pitch movement seemingly designed in a lab for maximum GIF-ability, May has been tantalizing Dodgers fans with ace potential ever since his debut in 2019. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2021 and flexor tendon surgery in 2023, have kept him from turning into the ace it was so easy to envision him becoming. From 2019 to 2023, he got into just 46 games, an average of 9.2 per season, running a combined 3.10 ERA and 3.77 FIP. Unfortunately, flexor tendon surgery ended May’s season early in 2023, then in July 2024, right as he was getting ready for a rehab assignment, May tore his esophagus in a freak accident while eating dinner. It was a major injury that required a six-month recovery. Read the rest of this entry »

Having already pulled off trades on Thursday to add reliever Mason Miller and starter JP Sears in a blockbuster with the Athletics and catcher Freddy Fermin in a deal with the Royals, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller stayed busy in the hours before the trade deadline, pulling off swaps with the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Brewers. San Diego has added lefty-swinging outfielder/first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and righty-swinging outfielder Ramón Laureano from Baltimore in exchange for a six-prospect package of 2024 draftees, and lefty-swinging infielder Will Wagner from Toronto in exchange for catching prospect Brandon Valenzuela. They also acquired lefty Nestor Cortes from Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Brandon Lockridge, a move that Davy Andrews will cover separately.

The 32-year-old O’Hearn and 31-year-old Laureano have both rejuvenated their careers with the Orioles, albeit on different timelines. O’Hearn had totaled -1.4 WAR in parts of five seasons in Kansas City before being traded to Baltimore for cash considerations in January 2023. After back-to-back seasons with a 117 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR for the Orioles, he made his first All-Star team this month and is currently hitting .283/.374/.463 (134 wRC+) with 13 homers and a career-high 2.4 WAR. Laureano, who was released by the Guardians last May and then turned things around in part-time duty with the Braves, has hit .290/.355/.529 (144 wRC+) with 15 homers and 2.3 WAR — his highest total since 2019 — for the Orioles. Both players have been bright spots on a 50-59 team that’s been carved up in recent days, with infielder Ramón Urías heading to the Astros, center fielder Cedric Mullins going to the Mets, with starter Charlie Morton dealt to the Tigers, and relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Andrew Kittredge to the Blue Jays and Cubs, respectively.

The six 2024 draftees heading from the Padres to the Orioles are second-round pick Boston Bateman (a 19-year-old lefty), third-rounder Cobb Hightower (a 20-year-old shortstop), fourth-rounder Tyson Neighbors (a 22-year-old righty), 12th-rounder Brandon Butterworth (a 22-year-old middle infielder), 15th-rounder Tanner Smith (a 22-year-old righty) and 18th-rounder Victor Figueroa (a 21-year-old first baseman/outfielder). Read the rest of this entry »

I was starting to get worried that Griffin Jax was going to be left behind in the Twins’ wholesale liquidation of their bullpen. Fear not; the hardest thrower in the Air Force Reserve is headed out after all. The Rays currently sit two games under .500 and 3 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, with a 9.9% chance of making the playoffs. That long-shot contender status did not dampen their enthusiasm for Jax in the slightest. Tampa Bay sent the talented but inconsistent starter Taj Bradley to Minnesota in exchange for Jax, who is under team control through 2027.

The Rays also sent infielder Curtis Mead and prospects Duncan Davitt and Ben Peoples to the White Sox in exchange for Adrian Houser, who will presumably take the rotation spot Bradley vacated. Read the rest of this entry »

On June 30, the Rangers lost to fall to 41-44, 10th place in the American League. Then they turned it on. Since the calendar flipped to July, they’ve gone 16-8 and rocketed into the playoff picture. They’re tied with the Mariners for the last AL Wild Card spot. With their sights now set on thriving in October, they needed to reinforce a pitching staff that has been quite good up top but got shakier as you went down the depth chart, and the Diamondbacks were happy to oblige. As Ken Rosenthal first reported, the Rangers are getting Merrill Kelly in exchange for Kohl Drake, Mitch Bratt, and David Hagaman. They also acquired Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton in separate deals to shore up the middle of their bullpen.

Texas has a famous starting rotation. The two stars, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, need no introduction. Second on the team in innings, slightly ahead of Eovaldi? That’d be World Series winner Patrick Corbin, famous both for his high highs and low lows. The back of the rotation? Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, famous college teammates before they were famous prospect teammates. But Leiter and Rocker have been flat this year, and Corbin was bad enough for long enough that I’d be a little scared of counting on him. Tyler Mahle, another celebrated Rangers starter, has been out since June. Jon Gray is headed for free agency and has perhaps been banished to the bullpen for the remainder of 2025. And it’s not like deGrom has been the paragon of health over the last few years.

Kelly lengthens the playoff-ready portion of Texas’s rotation immediately. His career 3.74 ERA and 3.97 FIP are accurate representations of his work, as are his 22% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. In other words, he’s a perfect mid-rotation arm, better than average (he’s managed a 3.22 ERA and 3.53 FIP this season) but squarely short of an ace. He’s 36 and a free agent after this year, which limits his return somewhat, but he’s a dependable playoff starter and thus a very desirable deadline target. Read the rest of this entry »