Episode 943

We’re as excited about the postseason as you are, and this week we share some Wild Card reactions before looking ahead to the rest of October.

• In our first segment, David Laurila welcomes the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes, who was in attendance for both of the Wild Card games this week. David and Chelsea discuss the exciting atmospheres in Boston and Los Angeles before turning their attention to how the Giants won 107 games and how veteran catchers like Buster Posey and Salvador Perez impressed this season after a year off from the demanding job. Finally, Chelsea shares why Trea Turner is her pick in the tight NL MVP race. [2:36]
• After that, Eric Longenhagen is joined by Jason Martinez to talk about the start of the playoffs and catch up on how their respective baseball jobs’ schedules change in October. Eric shares some of the prospects he has been keeping an eye on, while Jason lets his inner Padres fan speak up about the team’s rough second half. Finally, the duo go over some of the big 40-man roster crunch situations teams will face this winter. [26:37]

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One day after a special episode ofChin Music, it’s time for the regular version. This week, I am joined by Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio for an otherwise guest-less show that still features nearly two hours of baseball talk with a couple of yuks thrown in. We begin by talking through all four Division Series, followed by a look at the future of the front office and manager situations for both New York clubs. Then it’s your emails on made-up utility players, San Francisco’s lineups, and manager/player rifts. We finish by catching up with Mike on the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks and the challenges of broadcasting games remotely, before offering a series of TV recommendations.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Decibelles.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Any team down 1-0 in a five-game series has problems. That’s where the Boston Red Sox find themselves after losing Game 1 of their American League Division Series tilt against the Tampa Bay Rays 5-0 in St. Petersburg on Thursday night. But before this series began, the Red Sox already had plenty of issues, and while Alex Cora did his best to mitigate them with some unexpected decisions concerning his pitching staff, he was left helpless thanks to a moribund Boston offense.

Problem No. 1: The Red Sox are all but forced to lean on left-handed starters against a team that crushes them

The Red Sox had to use Nathan Eovaldi just to get to this point. Unfortunately, the understandable decision to have their right-handed ace start the AL Wild Card game means that Tampa will likely face a left-handed starter in at least three games should the ALDS go the full five. That’s a problem when squaring off against the Rays, whose offense finished second in the AL only to the Houston Astros in terms of runs scored and features one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against southpaws. Here’s Tampa’s Game 1 lineup, with their 2021 performance against lefties:

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Meg Rowley and guest co-host Eric Longenhagen banter about Walker Buehler’s unusual approach to opening beers and their own past dental emergencies before recapping the AL Wild Card game. They consider what went wrong for the Yankees, and assess the Red Sox’s good starters, potent lineup, and shaky defense, as well as Nick Pivetta and Garrett Richards. Next they shift to the Red Sox/Rays ALDS matchup and consider the state of Tampa Bay’s pitching, the Rays’ talented hitters, and whether playoff experience (or a lack thereof) will matter for Tampa’s young starters. After that it’s on to the Astros and White Sox, featuring an embarrassment of good hitters including Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert, plus Houston’s talented pitching and Chicago’s dominant bullpen. Then they wrap up with thoughts on the NL Wild Card and play a game of stumpo with Arizona Fall League rosters. Read the rest of this entry »

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Coming into the American League Division Series, the Chicago White Sox faced a tough task: controlling the tireless Houston Astros offense, which paced the majors in scoring. They’re a nightmarish matchup; high on-base hitters up top, power in the middle, and enough firepower that Carlos Correa (134 wRC+) bats sixth and Kyle Tucker (147 wRC+) seventh.

Chicago’s plan? Fastballs. That’s less by design and more because Lance Lynn, their Game 1 starter, throws more of them than anyone else in baseball. Is that a smart plan against the Astros? No, it is not — they were the third-best fastball-hitting team in baseball this year by run value. On the other hand, they were also the third-best team against breaking pitches and the second-best against offspeed offerings, so it’s not as though there were easy choices. But fastballs? In this economy? It felt like it might be a long afternoon.

For an inning, Lynn managed it. He mixed four-seamers and cutters, keeping Houston hitters off-balance. His cutter could almost be called a slider, and it’s key to keeping opponents uneasy; it’s the only pitch he throws with glove-side movement. He set the side down in order — but even then, Alex Bregman smashed a line drive directly at Leury García for the third out. The cutters weren’t doing enough to keep Astros hitters from sitting on other fastballs.
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4:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our AL Division Series Game 1 chat! We’ll be starting things off shortly

4:06	David Laurila: Greetings, all.

4:08	David Laurila: Not worth a poll, but today’s Lance matchup begs a question: Who is the best-ever baseball Lance? Berkman and Parrish are presumably the top candidates?

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