Ben Lindbergh and guest co-host Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio and the Diamondbacks’ broadcast crew discuss the D-Backs’ 17-game losing streak and more extended stretch of futility before bantering about Shohei Ohtani’s Player of the Week Award-winning performance and the potential for Ohtani to own All-Star Week, the call-up of (and expectations for) Rays infielder and MLB top prospect Wander Franco, and Manny Machado getting distracted by the wave. Then (50:09) Ben talks to biomechanics expert, former Dodgers analyst, and current CEO of Reboot Motion Dr. Jimmy Buffi about how sticky stuff enhances performance, whether Tyler Glasnow was right about the foreign-substance crackdown increasing injury risk, why injury rates are up this season, and whether Jacob deGrom’s ever-escalating velocity and series of minor injuries are causes for concern. Lastly (1:25:37), Ben talks to Rays pitching prospect Graeme Stinson about the lefty’s experience with sticky stuff, the wisdom and effects of the enforced foreign-substance ban, the experimental pickoff rules that have boosted base stealing in A ball, housing and nutrition in the minor leagues, and the founding and future of StatStak, the performance-tracking company he helped start during the pandemic.

Audio intro: Grateful Dead, "Loser"
Audio interstitial 1: Electric Light Orchestra, "Hold on Tight"
Audio interstitial 2: Dave Clark and Friends, "Rub it In"
Audio outro: Sharon Van Etten, "Seventeen"

Link to list of longest losing streaks
Link to Peacock plate appearance
Link to Peacock backstory
Link to Ohtani Player of the Week highlights
Link to Ohtani’s Coors BP
Link to FanGraphs Rays prospect ranking
Link to Franco origin story
Link to all-time list of youngest MLB players
Link to video of Machado and the wave
Link to Buffi’s first podcast appearance
Link to Glasnow comments
Link to Mike Sonne’s fatigue research
Link to Buffi’s elbow/forearm study
Link to Reboot Motion website
Link to 2021 experimental rules
Link to Jayson Stark on A-ball base stealing
Link to Stinson’s Twitter account
Link to StatStak website
Link to Diamondbacks game story
Link to article on sticky stuff and batted balls
Link to average 4-seam spin rate by day chart
Link to Meg on Lind
Link to Maldonado video

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These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments here.

Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Rocket City Age: 21 Org Rank: 3  FV: 45+
Line: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 14 K
Notes
Detmers’ delivery starts out somewhat slow, almost nonchalant, but ends with an explosive arm action that hitters seem to have trouble gauging or reacting to. In the first game of the Trash Pandas’ Father’s Day double-header against the Biloxi Shuckers, Detmers got to work right away with an immaculate inning, fanning his first three hitters on nine pitches. He went on to strike out a total of fourteen Shuckers in his six innings of work before handing the game over to reliever Oliver Ortega for the save. Detmers is only the fourth pitcher in the history of the Angels’ minor league system to strike out 14 in a game — interestingly, only four days after his teammate Cooper Criswell became the third to do so.

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The biggest storyline in baseball this week was the announced crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances on the mound. It’s still too soon to tell how this might change the results on the field, but the early research suggests it could have wide reaching effects. Scoring is up in June league-wide, but that may be the normal result of warmer weather.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+) and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

The Dodgers have finally reclaimed the top spot in these rankings by winning 10 of their last 12. They’re about to get a lot healthier, too; Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger should be activated from the IL this coming week, and Corey Seager could start a rehab assignment as early as next weekend. That’s good, because their upcoming schedule is tough, with series against the Padres, Cubs, and Giants on the docket.

The Giants’ offense was absolutely dominant last week, beneficiaries of playing the Diamondbacks and Phillies at home; they scored 59 runs in seven games with Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski leading the way. Those two combined to collect 18 hits last week, including eleven extra-base hits and five home runs. But one of the biggest reasons for San Francisco’s continued success has been the vast improvement of its bullpen. At the end of April, Giants relievers had the second worst park- and league-adjusted FIP in baseball. Since that point, they’ve lowered their FIP- to 98 and their ERA- to 81.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, I was working on a piece about why the trade market doesn’t heat up until July, and per habit, I chose a game to have on in the background while I work. I usually flip between them, focusing on where the action is based on the score and runners on base, but with the day just starting, I began with Oakland at New York. The A’s had Sean Manaea on the mound, which made me think about his 2013 spring, and a wasted trip to Normal, Illinois.

It’s easy to forget that Manaea entered that spring as a candidate for the top pick in the draft. He was a six-foot-five, physical left-hander who entered Indiana State with a mid-80s fastball but suddenly was up to 98 mph in the Cape Cod League two years later. There, he was universally seen as the best prospect during the 2012 season, putting up a 1.22 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 51.2 innings and allowing just 21 hits and seven walks.

Manaea was living up to expectations early that spring, but things took a turn for the worse on March 15 in a game at the Metrodome in Minneapolis. Manaea couldn’t find a comfortable landing spot for his front foot and irritated his right hip. The injury would affect him for the remainder of the season; he missed starts and at times was scratched at the last moment. When he did pitch, he performed quite well, but the stuff was also down, and considerably so at times. Figuring out where he would (and more importantly should) go in the draft was becoming the biggest challenge of the tear.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament was set to begin on Tuesday, April 20 at Duffy Bass Field in Normal, Illinois, on the campus of Illinois State University. Indiana State would take on Creighton in the first game, with first pitch at 10:00 AM and Manaea scheduled to pitch. It was quite possibly the last chance to see him before making a multi-million dollar decision on the player, and I was asked to attend.

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In no world is Juan Soto is having a bad year. Through games played on Saturday, he has more walks than strikeouts, a 128 wRC+, and a .272/.404/.426 triple slash in 240 plate appearances. He’s been worth 1.6 WAR in 58 games, thanks at least in part due to improved defense; ZiPS projects him to add another 3.5 wins the rest of the way, which would result in a career-high 5.1 WAR. Even at his current pace of 4.5 WAR, Soto would end the season as one of the more valuable players in baseball.

By his standards, however, Soto is actually having a bit of a down year. That 128 wRC+ I mentioned? That is just above his worst mark in any 58-game stretch (127) of his entire career. It still represents great production in a vacuum, and the fact that his worst wRC+ still is 127 is just another way to underscore his greatness. But at the same time, it still leaves us with a lot of questions, none more important than this: Why has Soto seen such a notable decrease in performance?

The answer might seem somewhat simple: He’s hitting far too many groundballs. Soto currently has a 55.3% groundball rate, seventh-highest in the majors. The fact that he’s still posting a 128 wRC+ in spite of that is borderline absurd; of the 30 qualified hitters with at least a 48% groundball rate, he has the highest wRC+, a testament to his phenomenal plate discipline and frequency of hard contact.

As a result of all of these grounders, Soto is embarking on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2020 journey. But while Vlad Jr. is currently elevating and celebrating this year, Soto is grounding and outing. Bad attempt at a rhyme aside, his groundballs mostly turn into outs. The ones that aren’t outs? They are singles, and they the reason why he has experienced a personal power outage. In his last 50 games, he has a .137 ISO, another career low for a sample that large.

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Read the rest of this entry »

The major league season can seem interminable at times, but July marks a pivot from a stately march into a playoff chase. There are several milestones in the month — the halfway point of the season, the All-Star break, and so on — but the rubber doesn’t really hit the road until the trade deadline. By July 31 (or, this year, July 30), teams have to decide what their plans are for the rest of the year, and often future years as well. Buy? Sell? Hedge? The hot stove can determine the course of seasons, and we’re here to help you follow it.

FanGraphs has myriad tools that can help you figure out deadline targets, potential team weaknesses, and even who should be buying and selling. Let’s take a tour of those tools, because articles about which team should trade for which reliever might feed you for a day, but generating your own lists will feed you for a lifetime — so long as you derive sustenance from knowing which relievers and players on expiring contracts will most help your squad. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in December, Eric Longenhagen compiled FanGraphs’ annual Reds Prospect List, identifying 36 noteworthy players in Cincinnati’s system. Here’s an update on the top-ranked players and best performers from that list, along with some previously unlisted prospects who’ve made a case for themselves to be included in lists to come.

Updates on the Top Five:

Perhaps the most notable update for Jose Barrero (formerly Garcia) is in regard to his surname, which he changed last month to honor his late mother who passed away due to complications from COVID-19. On the field, he is still the Reds’ top-ranked player, with a slash line of .333/.392/.515 — good for a 151 wRC+  — at Double A. That’s a vast improvement over his numbers during the shortened 2020 season, when he was prematurely called up to the majors despite never having played above A-ball because of the Reds’ lackluster middle infield options. His strikeout rate is still too high for comfort (20.3%) and comes paired with a similarly unsatisfactory walk rate (8.4%), so his approach is still the order of the day in terms of his development.

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati’s no. 2 prospect, has seen a good amount of playing time this season, much of it at first base during the weeks that Joey Votto was on the IL. He has a 126 wRC+ on the season, with a 13.2% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate that are both better than league average, as is his slash line of .270/.383/.418. Despite the important role Stephenson has played, his at-bats are going to take a dip; with Votto back in the lineup, he will be relegated to sharing time behind the dish with Tucker Barnhart. Read the rest of this entry »