Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks and welcome to the West Coast edition of my Friday chat. I’m in San Diego for some family stuff, putting in a full week of work followed by a week of mostly vacation. I went to Wednesday’s Padres game and wrote about Manny Machado’s rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-a-revamped-padres-lineup-manny-machado-…) amid the revamped lineup
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Jay Jaffe: Today I wrote about Justin Verlander’s comeback from Tommy John surgery. We haven’t seen a starting pitcher anywhere near this age (39) return from TJ and pitch well https://t.co/1TZOJFtWLD
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Jay Jaffe: Word of warning as we do the chat: the wifi in my airbnb is brutal, and if it bogs down this could be shorter than usual but we’ll do what we can
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Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show
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EuroBall: What are the Yankees waiting for to call up Peraza?
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Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s in the cards this year. Sweeney Murti, who covers the Yankees for WFAN, had a good thread on this
Further explanation on this: Last month, with trade deadline approaching, I asked several NYY coaches and execs about IKF and upgrading SS because of the spotty defense. They all told me they were not as concerned as I, that they valued range over the small bursts of errors 1/8
As anyone who does a lot of work with projections could likely tell you, one of the most annoying things about modeling future performance is that results themselves are a small sample size. Individual seasons, even full ones over 162 games, still feature results that are not very predictive, such as a hitter or a pitcher with a BABIP low or high enough to be practically unsustainable. For example, if Luis Arraez finishes the season hitting .333, we don’t actually know that a median projection of .333 was the correct projection going into the season. There’s no divine baseball exchequer to swoop in and let you know whether he’s “actually” a .333 hitter who did what he was supposed to, a .320 hitter who got lucky, or a .380 hitter who suffered extreme misfortune.
If you flip heads on a coin eight times out of 10 and have no reason to believe you have a special coin-flipping ability, you’ll eventually see the split approach 50/50 given a sufficiently large number of coin flips. Convergence in probability is a fairly large academic area that we thankfully do not need to go into here, but for most things in baseball, you never actually get enough coin flips to see this happen. The boundaries of a season are quite strict.
What does this have to do with projections? This volatile data becomes the source of future predictions, and one of the things done in projections is to find things that are not only as predictive as the ordinary stats but also more predictive based on fewer plate appearances or batters faced. Imagine, for example, if body mass index were a wonderful predictor of isolated power. It would be a highly useful one, as changes to it over the course of a season are bound to be rather small. The underlying reasons for performance tend to be more stable than the results, which is why ERA is more volatile than strikeout rate, and why strikeout rate is more volatile than the plate discipline stats that result in strikeout rate.
MLB’s own method comes with an x before the stat, whereas what ZiPS uses internally has a z. (I’ll let you guess what it stands for!) I’ve written more about this stuff in various other places (like here and here), so let’s get right to the data as we start the final third of the season. We’re also looking at how zStats leaders and trailers fared in the two months since I last posted the numbers. Sure, we’re using a small sample size of players and comparing a small sample size to another small sample size, but curiosity gets precedence over everything! Read the rest of this entry »
Justin Verlander wasn’t quite at his best on Wednesday night, yielding three runs in six innings against the Rangers in Houston — his first time surrendering more than two runs since June 24. Even so, the 39-year-old righty continued an impressive comeback following nearly two full seasons lost to injuries — first a forearm strain and then Tommy John surgery. In fact, he leads the American League in both wins (15) and ERA (1.85), and while those don’t carry the same currency at FanGraphs as they do elsewhere, it’s not hard to imagine him adding a third Cy Young award to his trophy room if he keeps this up.
Verlander won the award for the first time in 2011, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts in 251 innings; by leading the league in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, he also claimed the pitching triple crown and added the AL MVP award as well. Over the next seven seasons, he finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young three times (2012, ’16, and ’18) but also endured some ups and downs, including a 4.54-ERA season (2014), an injury-shortened one (2015), and a late-season trade to the Astros that helped him claim a World Series ring (2017), albeit on a team that was later sanctioned for its illegal electronic sign-stealing efforts.
After narrowly losing out to Blake Snell for the award in 2018, Verlander finally won another Cy Young in 2019, going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and an even 300 strikeouts; in the same game he reached that plateau, he also became the 18th pitcher to surpass the 3,000-strikeout milestone. It’s taken more than two years to follow that up, however. After a spring in which he suffered both lat and groin strains, Verlander underwent surgery to repair the latter shortly after Major League Baseball was forced to postpone Opening Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When he finally did take the mound roughly four months later for the Astros’ season opener, he suffered a forearm strain, and after experiencing pain during a simulated game while rehabbing, he was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery in late September, which cost him all of 2021. Read the rest of this entry »
On Wednesday, the Detroit Tigers fired general manager Al Avila. Mired in last place in the American League Central in what was supposed to be a resurgent season, the firing fit the mood around Detroit. This was meant to be the Tigers’ triumphant return to postseason contention, a culmination of seven years of stockpiling and honing. Instead, it’s been another lost season, adding to the gulf that separates today’s Tigers from the perennial World Series contenders of a decade ago.
Four months later, all of that optimism has disappeared. Báez is having one of his worst years as a professional. Rodriguez got hurt early in the year and then hit the restricted list while dealing with a personal matter. He last pitched in the majors on May 18; when he took the mound for Single-A Lakeland this past Saturday, it was his first game action since June 9. Meadows, the third piece of the team’s major league talent trifecta, has missed extended time with a laundry list of injuries, and playing hurt when available has resulted in sub-replacement-level production.
That alone would hurt the offense, but it gets worse. Torkelson, who came into the season as our fifth-ranked prospect overall, made the Opening Day roster. To put it mildly, things haven’t gone according to plan since. His .197/.282/.295 line led to a demotion to Triple-A, where he’s also scuffled. Greene broke his foot in spring training and hasn’t lit the world on fire since joining the big league club in June. Read the rest of this entry »
This week on the program, we get into some Blue Jays banter before looking at how some other squads are faring after the trade deadline.
In the first half, David Laurila welcomes Kaitlyn McGrath, a writer and podcaster for The Athletic focused on the Toronto Blue Jays. They talk about the surprisingly competitive Baltimore Orioles, compare Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah’s great seasons, consider the concerning campaigns of Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos, and discuss the interesting acquisitions of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Whit Merrifield. We also hear how fans wish the club was a bit more aggressive even as the front office often leans in a more practical direction. [3:02]
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mariners’ soaring playoff odds, a wild Mariners-Yankees game, the other greatest team gainers and losers in playoff probability over the past month, the difference between Baseball-Reference’s playoff odds and other sites’ versions, Keith Hernandez’s thoughts on the Phillies, how their own preseason predictions have held up, Steven Kwan and Triston McKenzie, the dominance of the Dodgers, a few significant injuries, the Tigers firing GM Al Avila (40:26) and the future of their franchise, Jason Heyward’s Cubs contract, Rodolfo Castro’s phone mishap, and more. Then (1:05:23) they share a Past Blast from 1888, Stat Blast (1:09:06) about Miles Mikolas and the worst start ever, Robinson Canó’s trio of releases, Jake Fishman and long gaps between a college’s alumni making the majors, the most homers in a day by players with the same first name, games where every pitcher recorded the same number of outs, the longest winning streaks by sub-.500 teams, and the youth of the Guardians, before ending with a quick, condensed cold call (1:35:26) with nearly-97-year-old Larry Miggins, who hit the most emotional home run Vin Scully ever called.
SAN DIEGO — August 2 blockbuster addition Juan Soto may be dominating the headlines, but it’s Manny Machado who has finally kick-started the Padres’ new-look lineup. On Tuesday night, Machado’s walk-off home run against the Giants’ Tyler Rogers helped offset Josh Hader’s ninth-inning meltdown and put an end to the Padres’ five-game losing streak. On Wednesday afternoon, the third baseman’s two-run double off of Jakob Junis spurred a six-run rally that helped the Padres overcome a 4-0 deficit. Machado added two more hits, a double and a two-out sixth-inning single that sparked a seven-run rally after the Padres had surrendered the lead, one that turned the game into a 13-7 laugher. Only a spectacular catch of his 97-mph drive by Luis González prevented him from collecting a third extra-base hit.
“You don’t see too many six spots and seven spots in the same game,” marveled manager Bob Melvin afterwards.
After acquiring Hader, Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury ahead of the deadline, the Padres beat the Rockies 9-1 on August 3, then proceeded to lose five straight while scoring just seven runs. After dropping their series finale to the Rockies, they were then swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles, where they were outscored by a combined score of 20-4. They were shut out for 26 consecutive innings, from the sixth inning of Saturday’s loss through back-to back shutouts against the Dodgers on Sunday and the Giants on Monday, not scoring again until the fourth inning of Tuesday night’s game via Soto’s first homer as a Padre. Read the rest of this entry »
The White Sox remain serious playoff contenders in 2022, but I doubt many would classify this season as a roaring success. With what appeared in the preseason to be the AL Central’s strongest roster, Chicago has not gone on a leisurely stroll to October. Instead, it’s locked in a brutal three-way clash with Cleveland and Minnesota and currently stands 1.5 games behind both.
The reasons for the team’s struggles are myriad. The entire offense failed to produce, especially early in the season, finishing April with a .212/.264/.348 line and an 8–12 record. When healthy, Yasmani Grandal and Yoán Moncada have not hit at all, leaving two offensive problems in unexpected places. Lance Lynn got a late start to the season and has generally been ineffective. The manager has an odd fetish for getting Leury Garcia into the lineup at every possible juncture. We can play this game all day, but we can now throw a new problem onto the pile in the loss of starting shortstop Tim Anderson to an injured ligament in his left middle finger that requires surgery. Anderson is expected to miss four-to-six weeks of play and make a full recovery, but with only eight weeks left in the regular season, that’s a lot of missed time.
After the trade deadline, I projected the White Sox as having the biggest loss in playoff probability of any team due to transactions made around baseball at the deadline. Whereas they would have been projected with a 59.5% shot at the postseason with the pre-deadline rosters, they came out afterward at 52.2%. Despite not actually losing any ground in the last week to their rivals in the standings, replacing Anderson with a combination of Garcia and Lenyn Sosa sends another chunk of the team’s playoff hopes into eternal oblivion.
ZiPS Projected Standings – AL Central (8/11)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Cleveland Guardians
84
78
—
.519
39.2%
12.3%
51.5%
1.1%
Minnesota Twins
84
78
—
.519
35.7%
12.6%
48.3%
1.3%
Chicago White Sox
83
79
1
.512
25.1%
11.5%
36.6%
0.9%
Kansas City Royals
67
95
17
.414
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Detroit Tigers
64
98
20
.395
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
For the first time this season, the Sox are projected to have a worse chance at taking the division than both the Twins and Guardians, and roughly a quarter of the scenarios in which they make the playoffs have evaporated. Losing a win is a very big deal for a team in such a tight race, and that gets even a bit worse for Chicago because of the change in MLB’s rules for divisional ties, with tiebreakers being used instead of bonus baseball. Right now, should there be a tiebreaker needed, ZiPS estimates that the Guardians will beat the Sox 74% of the time, and the Twins will come out on top in 69% (not nice!) of tiebreakers. And all that is with projections that assume that Anderson misses an average of five weeks. If he has a setback and can’t get back for the rest of the regular season, it obviously gets worse; in the simulations when he didn’t return (about 10% of sims), Chicago only made the playoffs about three times in ten. Read the rest of this entry »
Alex Call’s first cup of big-league coffee came last month with the Cleveland Guardians. A 27-year-old outfielder who had spent his first three professional seasons in the Chicago White Sox system, Call logged two hits and four walks in 16 plate appearances before being returned to Triple-A Columbus on August 1. Six days later, the 2016 third-round pick out of Ball State University was designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the Washington Nationals.
Call’s first big-league plate appearances came as a pinch hitter on July 11, one day after learning that he was getting called up. The pitcher on the mound was one of his former minor-league teammates in the White Sox system. Eleven days and six at-bats later, Call recorded his first hit in the majors. It came off the same pitcher.
Call, currently playing for Triple-A Rochester, discussed his milestone moments when the Guardians visited Fenway Park in late July.
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On learning that he was getting his first big-league call-up
“It was a Sunday game and I was actually off that day. I’d signed up to do the fun run afterwards — we do those on Sundays in Columbus — and when that was over, Andy Tracy, our manager, told me, ‘Hey, we’ve got a gift card for you. Thanks for doing that for the kids.’ I was like, ‘Sweet. I’ll take a gift card.’ He rustled around some papers in his office, then looked up and said, ‘Well, I can’t find it, but I don’t think you’ll need it in Cleveland. You’re going to The Show.’ After that, I called my family. Read the rest of this entry »
Here’s a spray chart of Manny Machado’s groundballs this year:
And here’s a heat map of all of the grounders he’s hit in his career:
Oh, hi there. Don’t worry, you haven’t inadvertently stepped into a list of every player’s batted ball tendencies. Part of writing is building a sense of mystery. I’m just setting you up for a payoff later on. Whoops, gave that one away too easily! In any case, let’s move on. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks and welcome to the West Coast edition of my Friday chat. I’m in San Diego for some family stuff, putting in a full week of work followed by a week of mostly vacation. I went to Wednesday’s Padres game and wrote about Manny Machado’s rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-a-revamped-padres-lineup-manny-machado-…) amid the revamped lineup
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