The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2015 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Wherever Gary Sheffield went, he made noise, both with his bat and his voice. For the better part of two decades, he ranked among the game’s most dangerous hitters, a slugger with a keen batting eye and a penchant for contact that belied his quick, violent swing. For even longer than that, he was one of the game’s most outspoken players, unafraid to speak up when he felt he was being wronged and unwilling to endure a situation that wasn’t to his liking. He was a polarizing player, and hardly one for the faint of heart.

At the plate, Sheffield was viscerally impressive like few others. With his bat twitching back and forth like the tail of a tiger waiting to pounce, he was pure menace in the batter’s box. He won a batting title, launched over 500 home runs — 14 seasons with at least 20 and eight with at least 30 — and put many a third base coach in peril with some of the most terrifying foul balls anyone has ever seen. For as violent as his swing may have been, it was hardly wild; not until his late thirties did he strike out more than 80 times in a season, and in his prime, he walked far more often than he struck out. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

There have been many unpleasant stories in baseball over the last year, but Mike Yastrzemski’s tale is one of the exceptions. Never really considered a prospect — not even close enough to the fringe for a legendary last name to get him undeserved chances — Yastrzemski had to sweat out his opportunities the old-fashioned way, slowly improving his game in the minors. Hard work can always use a bit of good fortune, and Little Yaz got it when the Orioles traded him to the Giants, a team that has generally needed two or three starting outfielders. The best defensive corner outfielder in the minors in 2017-2018 according to the Gameday-based coordinate system ZiPS uses for minor league defense, he hit enough to earn a starting job in 2019. 2020 saw Yastrzemski get MVP votes, and if there had been an All-Star Game, he likely would have added that accolade as well. There’s a real disagreement between ZiPS and Steamer over just how good he is — ZiPS projects him for a 120 OPS+ while Steamer foresees a more modest 101 wRC+ — but he’s a real major leaguer and one of the few current starters who seems likely to be on the team in a few years.

But what will the Giants look like in a few years? The crystal ball is rather foggy on this point. While San Francisco has been surprisingly competitive the last two seasons, flirting with playoff contention both times, it hasn’t actually been a good team. Ownership not blowing up the entire organization has given the franchise breathing room to improve from the 2017 nadir, but it’s still hard to see a lot of short-term upside. There are more adequate starters in the lineup than a couple of years ago, but the offense remains very, very old. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Brandon Crawford all project to still have their moments, but they’re the past, not the future. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, as part of the negotiations over a new Professional Baseball Agreement (PBA) with Minor League Baseball, Major League Baseball introduced a proposal that would dramatically reimagine the minor leagues. The proposal included plans to shift the timing of the amateur draft and realign some parent-club affiliations, league geographies, and club levels. Most importantly, it proposed stripping more than 40 clubs of their affiliated status, though it also suggested that some of the newly unaffiliated teams would assume other formats, either as so-called professional partner leagues, or as amateur summer wood bat leagues. The plan got us thinking about how access to in-person baseball across the United States would change. We were interested in how many people would lose their ability to watch affiliated baseball in person, or would see that access shift from the relatively affordable confines of the minor leagues to more expensive major league parks.

Those studies relied on a New York Times list of teams reportedly slated for contraction, as well as Baseball America’s excellent reporting. Thirteen months, a pandemic, and one extremely contentious negotiation later, MLB has informed minor league teams of their proposed fates, with 120 franchises “invited” to be part of the new, MLB-developed minor league system. Many are still reviewing the terms of their “invitations”; several find themselves occupying a new rung on the minor league ladder, or with a different parent club than before.

Meanwhile, 25 clubs find themselves ticketed either for summer wood bat leagues, including the newly formed MLB Draft League, or for pro partner leagues for undrafted players and released minor leaguers. Eighteen teams face futures that are, as of this writing, uncertain, though as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper notes, “Major League Baseball has indicated that it will pay entry fees for these teams that were left out of affiliated baseball to join new leagues. MLB will pay their way in, but as a condition those teams are expected to waive a right to sue.” The complete list of the 43 franchises slated to lose their affiliated status can be found below. Of the 43, 11 are full-season clubs:

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Connor Seabold is a control artist with a plus changeup. Those qualities helped entice the Red Sox to acquire the 24-year-old right-hander as part of the August trade that sent Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Nick Pivetta. Seabold has since been added to Boston’s 40-man roster.

His artistry isn’t limited to the baseball field. Seabold’s father is a graphic designer, and the 2017 third-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton is a chip off the old block when it comes to pictorial ability.

“My first semester in college, I actually tried to be an art major,” explained Seabold, who impressed at Boston’s alternate training site and will compete for a spot in the Red Sox rotation next year. “That didn’t go well, especially with my baseball schedule — I had to tap out of it — but I can pick up a pencil and pad and draw whatever I’ve got on my mind. I’ve always kind of had a knack for it.”

Pitching is an even bigger passion, and it’s the development of his signature offering that’s turned Seabold into a promising prospect. Not only that, his low-90s four-seamer is sneaky good. Both came to the fore when I asked righty about his repertoire. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Torii Hunter could go get it. Fluid and graceful while patrolling center field, he was renowned for his leaping, acrobatic catches and his willingness to sacrifice his body. He made a strong enough impression upon those who watched him that he won nine Gold Gloves during his 19-year career, more than all but three center fielders, namely Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Andruw Jones. Hunter earned the nickname “Spider-Man” for his ability to climb outfield walls to steal home runs — something he did more than just about anybody else during his career — though one attempt to do so at Fenway Park left him with a broken ankle, and another a concussion.

“I’ll do anything to get that little white ball. I’ll put my life on the line,” Hunter told Sports Illustrated’s Albert Chen in 2005, sounding very much like the football player he was during his high school days in Pine Bluff, Arkansas. Hunter rose from difficult circumstances in Pine Bluff, including a father who was addicted to crack cocaine and friends who fell into the dead-end life of drugs, guns, and gangs. His athleticism helped him escape, though when he entered professional baseball as a first-round pick of the Twins in 1993, his talent was more raw than most.

The development of Hunter’s bat lagged behind his glove early in his career, but eventually, he improved to became an above-average hitter with multiple dimensions to his game. From 2001-13, he averaged 23 homers and 13 steals per year while hitting for a 115 OPS+, delighting fans with his penchant for the spectacular play, and gaining a reputation within the game for being a vocal clubhouse leader. In that span, he made five All-Star teams and helped the Twins, Angels, and Tigers to the playoffs eight times, though he never got further than the American League Championship Series with any of them.

Eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time this year, Hunter has superficially strong counting stats to go with his collection of Gold Gloves and his impressive highlight reel. In that regard, he bears some resemblance to fellow candidate Omar Vizquel, who surpassed the 50% threshold in his third year of eligibility. But Hunter didn’t have quite the longevity or visibility of Vizquel. Both players’ cases are on shakier ground when it comes to advanced statistics — particularly the defensive metrics — but Hunter is at a disadvantage because this ballot has a directly comparable center fielder in Jones, whose strong defensive numbers support his case yet who has struggled to get voters’ attention due in part to the shape of his career. Like Jones, Hunter might stick around the lower reaches of the ballot, though it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he falls below the 5.0% threshold.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

What makes the Angels a serious threat in any given season is fairly obvious: Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Trout starts just about every season as the MVP favorite — at least for now — and signing Rendon last winter brought in a second sorely needed superstar. A team that employs these two begins each year as top-tier contender… if they can just build a .500 team around the pair. That’s been the riddle the Halos have found themselves unable to solve; the last time the team had a winning record was 2015, and their last playoff appearance was 2014.

A decade of Trout without a single playoff win represents arguably some of the most wasted baseball potential in history. Sure, there have been examples of the Angels having terrible luck. Albert Pujols declined more quickly and more steeply than anyone imagined he would when he headed to the west coast for a mega-deal after the 2011 season. The problem is the team has frequently doubled-down on bad luck rather than mitigating its effects. Take Pujols. The Angels had little control over his walk off the proverbial cliff, but to keep playing him, hell or high water, was their decision. Nobody made the Angels essentially throw in the towel on having a major league quality first baseman for several years. Whether it’s Justin Upton or the parade of pitcher injuries, the Angels keep throwing good money after bad.

And the clock is ticking. Trout is no longer the young phenom; he’s approaching 30, and given the height of his peak, it’s likely that he’s already had his best season in the majors. The same goes for Rendon, who turns 31 next season. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 900

In a week of Winter Meetings gone virtual, the FanGraphs crew spends some time honoring a great player we lost, previewing the Australian Baseball League, and reviewing some recent moves.

• At the top of the show, Jay Jaffe is joined by Shakeia Taylor to remember the late Dick Allen. The veteran slugger passed away earlier this week, and his legacy is one worth revisiting. Jay and Shakeia discuss how the Hall of Fame has dropped the ball when it comes to appropriately recognizing players like Allen, as well as the racism he faced throughout his career, from fan vitriol and death threats to the media at times refusing to even call him by his name. [2:24]
• Following that, David Laurila is joined by Glenn Williams, the general manager of Team Australia. A former Twins player, Glenn holds a unique major league record of his own. The pair talk about the history of baseball down under and modern legends like Liam Hendriks, as well as the upcoming Australian Baseball League season, which starts next week and can be watched online. [32:07]
• Finally, Eric Longenhagen is joined by old friend Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The dynamic duo talks about what Kiley has been up to, the Phillies hiring Dave Dombrowski, and reactions to the Rule 5 Draft. Eric and Kiley also go over the Nate Lowe trade and what the Texas Rangers could be up to in their current position. [53:22]

Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about and the Phillies’ surprise hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their president of baseball operations, then (15:04) bring on Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper to talk about the ongoing overhaul of the minor leagues, the history of the relationship between the majors and minors, why MLB sought to consolidate its control over amateur ball and the minor leagues, the impact of the pandemic, the pending improvements in conditions for minor leaguers, the virtues of amateur ball versus affiliated ball, minor league owners as sympathetic figures, how the 120 affiliated teams were determined, efficiency vs. access to the sport, and whether baseball will be better or worse off in the long run.

Audio intro: Whitney, "Dave’s Song"
Audio interstitial: The Strokes, "Under Control"
Audio outro: The Orange Peels, "Take Me Over"

Link to Jayson Stark on the Phillies hiring Dombrowski
Link to a compendium of J.J.’s coverage
Link to J.J. on the 120 teams announcement
Link to Evan Drellich on the 120 teams announcement
Link to J.J. on how the 120 teams were chosen
Link to J.J. on what’s next for excluded teams
Link to J.J. on expanded player limits
Link to J.J. on the Staten Island Yankees lawsuit
Link to J.J. on the new amateur leagues
Link to J.J. on the origins of short-season ball
Link to J.J. on minor league player expenses
Link to J.J. on minor league facility upgrades
Link to Baseball America podcast
Link to preorder the Baseball America 2021 Prospect Handbook

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Like most baseball fans ranging from prospect-curious to prospect-obsessed, I too have been awaiting Nate Lowe’s first extended big league opportunity. It appears he’ll finally get one, as the Rangers acquired him on Thursday as part of a five- or six-player trade with Tampa Bay that involves Top 100 prospect Heriberto Hernandez. Read the rest of this entry »