Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Oakland Athletics. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

It’s the only thing anyone in baseball is talking about, and we aren’t immune, with another sticky edition of Chin Music. Coming out from the shadows, former Orioles, Mets and Yankees beat writer and current deputy editor at The Athletic Marc Carig joins me for nearly two and a half hours of fun. Marc and I talk about the controversy de jour and try to figure out why baseball has the most miserable fan base in sports before being joined by special guest Jerry Blevins. The ex-big leaguer discusses his personal experience with foreign substances and how this could all be solved with a better baseball. Then it’s your emails, a long discussion on the future of baseball media, a Russian film and associated Hollywood remake, and even some gardening talk.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Drunken Logic.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley follow up on previous discussions about player predictions and game postponements, answer listener emails about a sticky-stuff pitcher protest, the talent level in the College World Series, the wave as a player-distraction device, a six-year-old who roots for walks, and when the Astros will stop being booed (with an aside about foreign-substance use and the Hall of Fame), then unload a Stat Blast about the Twins and teams with the most and least lineup turnover after Opening Day, before closing with a “Meet a Major Leaguer” segment on Mariners outfielder Dillon Thomas and Monarchs two-way great Bullet Rogan.

Audio intro: Franz Ferdinand, "Bullet"
Audio outro: Franz Ferdinand, "Walk Away"

Link to article about Puckett’s called shot
Link to article about Nationals delay
Link to Jeff Passan on sticky stuff
Link to Ben on mid-PA pitching changes
Link to Ben on college player development
Link to info on distracting free-throw shooters
Link to post about swinging against deGrom
Link to tweet about swinging against deGrom
Link to story on the Astros being booed in Boston
Link to Baseball Prospectus IL Ledger
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to SABR on the Cobb replacement game
Link to news segment about Thomas
Link to video of Burrows throwing (up)
Link to Baseball-Reference Negro Leagues hub
Link to Bullet Rogan’s B-Ref page
Link to SABR on Rogan’s 1921 game
Link to MLB.com on Negro Leagues two-way stars
Link to THT on Negro Leagues two-way stars

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Lance Lynn has been among the best pitchers in the majors since the moment he signed with the Rangers back in 2019. Before that season, Lynn accumulated 16.9 WAR in 1,134.1 innings, good for a rate of 2.7 WAR per 180 IP, the epitome of a very good mid-rotation starter. He was remarkably consistent across those seasons, first for the Cardinals from 2011-17 and then for the Twins and Yankees in ’18. The winter after his partial season in New York, Lynn signed with the Rangers for a modest (by quality veteran standards) $30 million over three years. This was a perfectly reasonable contract given his output prior to 2019; if anything, it was a little light. Lynn had proven time and again that he could effectively eat innings for playoff-caliber clubs. From 2012-18, he threw 176.0, 201.2, 203.2, 175.1, 186.1, and 156.2 innings; again, a paragon of consistency.

Starting in 2019, Lynn found another gear. In his first season in Arlington, he posted 6.7 WAR on the back of a minuscule 66 FIP-. He has not looked back since: from 2019 through this season, Lynn is fifth overall in WAR, with 9.9 wins to his name, narrowly edging out Zack Wheeler. The only pitchers with better results have been Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer. Much of that production can be attributed to continuing to soak up innings; Lynn is fourth in innings pitched in that time frame. But he has also been excellent on a rate basis. From 2019-21, he has posted the sixth lowest ERA- among starting pitchers and the ninth lowest FIP-. His production is the confluence of continuing to be a workhorse and upping the ante in terms of his per start effectiveness.

Lynn’s salary and the Rangers place in their rebuilding cycle made Lynn an obvious trade candidate this past winter. Lynn’s contract and the White Sox wanting to (let me be nice) maintain “payroll flexibility” while also making a playoff push made the player and club a perfect match. These factors led Chicago to send Dane Dunning and Avery Weems to the Rangers for the last year of Lynn (and his rib-smashing aesthetic). As one can imagine, given his place on the WAR leaderboard through the 2021 season, Lynn has continued to excel on the Southside. He is striking out 28.1% of the batters he faces while posting a walk rate of just 7.0% through 12 starts and a park adjusted ERA 64% better than league average. He has been everything the White Sox could ask for and more. His continued success might make you believe that Lynn is humming along, picking up right where he left off after dominant 2019 and ’20 showings. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I took a look at the worst bunts of the season. They were all horrible! Balls were hit directly at fielders, lead runners were thrown out, and altogether the worst five bunts produced eight outs and no base advancements. Not great! But that’s only one side of the coin, and today I’d like to look at the bunts that have helped the batting team most so far this year.

You’ll notice that there aren’t any textbook sacrifice bunts on either list. That’s no knock on skilled bunters, but rather a function of the way I’m defining best and worst. Bunts, by their very nature, are hedges. They reduce volatility by definition — exchanging an out for some base advances is neither the worst nor best outcome of a given plate appearance, so a successful sacrifice bunt will inherently have a modest change in win probability relative to a play where something goes very right or very wrong.

Even so, today isn’t solely a showcase of bad defense. There’s some bad defense, but there’s also plenty of bunting for a hit. When you change the math by giving yourself a chance to reach base, bunts become far more valuable. It’s hard to greatly increase your team’s chances of winning while also making an out, so separating the sacrifice from the bunt is a prerequisite for having one of the most valuable bunts of the year.

For the most part, the plays on this list are all baseball being played at a high level. There are some defensive howlers, sure, but there’s plenty of skill here on both sides of the ball. Let’s take a look at the bunts that have helped out the most this year (through June 9), starting with an honorable mention.
Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Jose Altuve forgoing a home run trot, then break down the details of MLB’s plan to enforce the rules against foreign-substance use starting on June 21, covering the pros and cons of putting that plan into action at midseason and opting to ban all substances, what the effects on offense will be, whether Tyler Glasnow’s injury presages many more arm injuries ahead, a Scott Boras metaphor, and much more. Then (51:07) they bring on EW listener and criminology scholar Josh Beck to explain what the principles of punishment and deterrence can tell us about the efficacy of MLB’s approach to preventing cheating.

Audio intro: John Lennon, "Cold Turkey"
Audio interstitial: Grateful Dead, "Victim or the Crime"
Audio outro: Paul McCartney & Wings, "Spin it On"

Link to video of 2012 Morse homer
Link to video of Altuve homer
Link to details of MLB’s plan
Link to Ben on sticky stuff
Link to Jeff Passan on sticky stuff
Link to Boras statement
Link to info on deterrence
Link to paper on deterrence theory
Link to five findings about deterrence
Link to paper on cheating in baseball

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Oh my god, sorry I’m so late. Sorry. I can’t believe it! I mean, first of all, I can’t believe they still let me into the stadium this late. Thank goodness the game isn’t over yet. Otherwise that would have been a waste of time and money, right? Haha. You should have seen the traffic, it was– right, right, sorry, it’s the bottom of the ninth. I’ll let you focus. Wait, who’s pitching? That doesn’t look like Jansen. That’s the guy’s name, right? Jansen? Oh, Treinen. Yeah, right, I knew that. Duh! Don’t know where I got Jansen from, but you know me and my weird brain. The stuff I come up with sometimes! Especially after sitting in traffic like that, I mean–

Right, right, sorry! Yes! There’s a guy on first, one of the red guys. But they’re winning, right? The Dodgers, I mean. The blue ones. Obviously. So we don’t have to be worried. LET’S GO DODGERS!

Don’t worry, we’re not going to miss anything. Everyone’s just standing around on the field. Most exciting sport there is, am I right? Haha. You know I’m kidding, though. Love baseball. Love the game. Thanks for buying me a ticket, by the way. Feels like old times again. Not just before COVID, I mean, I haven’t been to one of these in, what, ten years? Was that ten years ago already? When you made me go that one time back when we were roommates, and then we had to leave early because I got dehydrated and was vomiting nachos everywhere, and then you were so mad because one of the guys did something and we missed it, like it was some kind of “historic day,” and we just listened to the radio broadcast in silence sitting in traffic all the way home and you wouldn’t talk to me for a week. That was brutal, man. Like, sorry, but that was kind of mean, and I still feel like you really overreacted. You could see how much suffering I was experiencing, and you knew that I couldn’t have brought a water bottle because I fell on the stairs and broke my Nalgene. It was a really dark time for me, and I went to all that trouble to come with you to the game, you know, taking all that time out of my day to go all the way here and back with you, and you weren’t being a very helpful friend. Not that I’m still mad about it or anything. Oh, wait, is he throwing the ball now? Are they done talking on their microphone thingies? Read the rest of this entry »

On May 17, Chicago White Sox legend Yermín Mercedes hit the sixth home run of his stellar, albeit wilting, nevertheless unlikely, rookie campaign. A mammoth blast over the center field wall of Target Field, the home run sparked — in equal parts, seemingly — awe and controversy.

? THE YERMINATOR JUST HOMERED OFF OF LA TORTUGA! ? pic.twitter.com/pHacUxXtdF

— MLB (@MLB) May 18, 2021

The controversy? Mercedes teed off on a 3-0 count with one out to spare in a 15-4 blowout, off a beloved Position Player Pitching^TM no less. He did so in the home park of a sputtering rival, one expected to compete for their division’s title but, at the time, had instead won half as many games (13) as it had lost (26). Naturally, a lengthy and unpleasant discourse about the game’s unwritten rules ensued. Retribution, however juvenile, was had.

At the time, the sheer amount of baggage on the home run did not register with me. My brain is so moldy and soggy that I reacted somewhat primitively. Good lord, Yermín Mercedes absolutely mashed possibly the slowest pitch I’ve ever seen.

Indeed, Mercedes’ home run is the hardest-hit batted ball (109.3 mph) against a pitch 60 mph or slower (47.1 mph) in the Statcast era. Only Christian Walker (seen here) and Ryan McMahon (seen here) come close, and their batted balls came against pitches thrown more than 53 mph. That’s, like, light speed in comparison. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »