Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Blue Jays missing out on several free-agent or trade targets, then answer listener emails about whether fans feel pride in their division/league, the history (and future) of fundamental changes to baseball technique, how many championships one would win if transported back to 2000 and appointed as GM of the Mariners, and how well pitchers would hit with metal bats, plus a Stat Blast about the public’s “pent-up demand” for post-pandemic baseball.

Audio intro: Roy Orbison, "Almost"
Audio outro: Gillian Welch, "Wayside/Back in Time"

Link to Blue Jays Nation on the Jays missing out
Link to Andrew Stoeten on the Jays missing out
Link to story about free agents and Toronto
Link to story about Toronto’s new turf
Link to Bobby Wallace SABR bio
Link to Jeff on the decline of the windup
Link to Jeff on good players who weren’t top prospects
Link to Jeff on stars who weren’t top prospects
Link to NPR on pent-up demand
Link to MLB attendance averages
Link to Hannah Keyser on lapsed fans
Link to longest pitcher home runs
Link to info on semantic satiation
Link to story on Miller Park Way
Link to story on milk bags

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Episode 904

FanGraphs Audio is back for 2021, and the crew is kicking things off by talking about the most exciting team in baseball before digging deeper into some recent research.

• To lead off the program, David Laurila is joined by Jesse Agler, broadcaster for the very active San Diego Padres. David and Jesse discuss “the most anticipated season in Padres history,” as well as things like being fans of Everton FC and playing games with fellow broadcaster Don Orsillo. [1:50]
• After that, Eric Longenhagen and Ben Clemens go over Ben’s recent piece, Do Successful Steals Apply Measurable Pressure? The results of this research serve as a jumping-off point as the pair start to ask more questions about how stolen bases can impact all the players on the field in many different ways. [29:07]

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox don’t need an elite bullpen to compete. They had the most valuable position player group in baseball in 2020, and that was without two stars, Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert, playing to their full potential. They also have a rotation that boasts two aces and a fair amount of rotation depth. Give them last year’s Phillies bullpen, and they’d still likely be able to fight for a playoff spot, especially in their division. Fit them with an average ‘pen, and their postseason expectations begin to look like more of a certainty.

Much to the chagrin of the other AL Central teams, Chicago’s bullpen doesn’t look like it’s going to be average, and it definitely doesn’t look like it will be awful. That much was made clear when the White Sox signed Liam Hendriks — the best reliever in this year’s free-agent class and at worst a top-three-or-four reliever in baseball — on Monday. Since the start of 2019, he has been nearly two wins more valuable than any other relief arm in baseball, posting a 1.79 ERA and 1.70 FIP in 110.1 innings. Our Depth Charts have Hendriks forecast for 1.6 WAR in 2021, tying him with Aroldis Chapman and Edwin Diaz for the highest relief WAR projection in baseball. With that considerable boost, the White Sox’ bullpen now projects to be the second-best in the majors, albeit with loads of free-agent talent still unsigned.

Read the rest of this entry »

Planning a starting rotation for 2021 carries innumerable pitfalls. Nearly every pitcher in the league saw a reduced workload last year, and they did it in strange circumstances to boot. It’s not merely that the short season set everyone’s innings back — though that’s a huge component. A large number of cancelations and postponements also meant more doubleheaders and more cobbled-together games, another way to throw pitchers off their rhythm.

Put it all together, and protecting arms sounds like an appealing plan for 2021. The Mariners announced that they’ll use a six-man rotation next year, a continuation of the plan they leaned on for all of 2020. The Red Sox are talking workload management. Since initially publishing this piece, Jeff Zimmerman pointed out that the Tigers will use a six-man rotation as well. Is an embiggened rotation the solution to this universal problem? Let’s do the math.

It depends, first of all, on what you give up. The innings tradeoff of a six-man rotation is straightforward. Giving your pitchers an extra day off limits their workloads, naturally enough. The math on that is straightforward if you assume it doesn’t affect their in-game workload. Take a pitcher who averages six innings per start. In a five-man rotation, that’s 192 innings of work. Adding a sixth pitcher to the rotation cuts that down to 162 innings.

How much do those 30 innings of work matter when it comes to health? I’ll level with you — I’m not sure. We simply don’t have the data to say with any amount of certainty, because the number of comparable situations is so small. Pitchers have light workloads all the time, but in most cases it’s due to age or injury. Looking at what a 21-year-old pitcher did in first building up stamina probably can’t tell us much about how many innings Jake Odorizzi, to pick a random example, should throw in 2021. Likewise, a pitcher’s workload in his first year back from Tommy John surgery can’t tell us how many innings Trevor Bauer can be effective for. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about why the free-agent market has been both slow-moving and fairly lucrative for the players who’ve signed, the White Sox inking closer Liam Hendriks, whether the White Sox are the American League’s front runners, the latest report that the season will start on time, napping, MLB’s plans for fans in the stands, why MLB owners aren’t pursuing expansion, the league’s next broadcast contract with ESPN, a rumored extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., the legacy of the late Tommy Lasorda, and the recent direction of the podcast.

Audio intro: The Bangles, "Mixed Messages"
Audio outro: Dion, "(I Used to Be A) Brooklyn Dodger"

Link to Craig Edwards on the Hendriks signing
Link to report about the season starting
Link to report about health and safety standards
Link to expansion story
Link to Craig on MLB’s TV revenue
Link to Meg on Bradley
Link to Meg on Lind
Link to Outsports story on Lasorda
Link to Outsports on Lasorda and Minnie Miñoso
Link to New York Times story on Lasorda’s son
Link to Jay on Lasorda

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

With the White Sox signing Liam Hendriks, the top option for teams looking to upgrade their bullpen is now off the market. Perhaps that will open up the floodgates for the other free-agent relievers, as nearly every would-be playoff squad is in the market for relief help. But whether it’s financially motivated or a matter of roster construction philosophy, there are a few contending teams who simply won’t be making a splashy addition to their bullpen. The Twins fall into that category.

In 2020, Minnesota’s bullpen was the unheralded strength of a division-winning team. The Twins’ relief corps was fifth in the majors by park- and league-adjusted FIP and ERA, and their relievers posted the majors’ third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio. But two of their best relievers from last year — Trevor May and Matt Wisler — have left via free agency. With their starting lineup and rotation mostly carrying over from last year, replacing them both should be a high priority.

Read the rest of this entry »

While there were plenty of good options in this year’s free-agent reliever class, with Trevor May, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, and Blake Treinen representing the near-top tier, there was just one ace available: Liam Hendriks. That elite reliever is now off the board, with the White Sox continuing their aggressive offseason by signing the former A’s closer to a four-year deal worth $54 million. Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown was the first with the news of the signing, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report the unusual structure of the deal: Hendriks will be paid $39 million in the first three years, with the remaining $15 million coming either as a fourth-year team option or as a deferred buyout if the option is declined.

Read the rest of this entry »