Today, we released the first run of our playoff odds for the 2025 season. With both the ZiPS and Steamer projections loaded in and playing time projections added to the mix, the FanGraphs supercomputer (okay, fine, our cloud services account) can get cranking and spit out some predictions. As is customary, I’ll walk through my first thoughts on them, while later today, Michael Baumann will contribute his own takeaways on the teams most likely to surprise our model. Let’s quickly walk through the process, and then get to the takeaways.
The model itself remains simple. We use those aggregated production and playing time numbers I mentioned earlier to create team-level projections, then use BaseRuns to turn individual outcome projections into scoring and run prevention. That gives us team strength against a neutral opponent. We use those values to simulate the season 20,000 times. The odds are a summary of those simulations as of earlier this morning. That might sound intuitive, but intuition doesn’t always match reality, so let’s go division-by-division to look at how our model got there and what I think of it. Read the rest of this entry »
As a refresher, to generate our playoff odds, we take each team’s projected performance and the schedule, and use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of a team winning its division or a Wild Card spot, along with its chances of winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance of making the playoffs, it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team playing in October.
To calculate each team’s initial projected performance, we use individual player projections from the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which are a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer, prorated to our RosterResource Depth Chart playing time. We then aggregate those individual player projections by team and apply the BaseRuns calculation to each team’s batters and pitchers to get projected runs scored and allowed. Those BaseRuns runs scored and allowed calculations are used to calculate a projected winning percentage using the Pythagorean win expectancy. This is the number you’ll see on our projected standings page, which amounts to a team’s projected winning percentage versus neutral opposition. Here I’ll remind everyone that this is calculated before being run through the season simulation 20,000 times, so the projected standings can, and often do, differ from what you’ll see on the playoff odds page. Read the rest of this entry »
Scott Taetsch-Imagn Images and Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Hello, and welcome to another installment of Transaction Analysis: Reliever Roundup Edition. Would you like to start with a joke? What’s that? You’re foaming at the mouth because the thought of starting with a joke is so exciting that you’ve lost all control of your bodily functions? I’m so glad we’re on the same page. Here we go:
Knock, knock.
Ok, now this is where you say: Who’s there? Great job.
The left-handed middle reliever with a fastball that averages just under 91 mph, who put up 0.5 WAR last season and on Tuesday signed a one-year, $3 million deal to return to his old team in his age-35 season.
Alright, now say it with me: Which one?
Thank you for your help. I think we nailed it. On Tuesday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Danny Coulombe, who spent the 2020-2022 seasons with the Twins, had agreed to return to Minnesota. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star-Tribune reported that the deal is for one year and a $3 million. Shortly thereafter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan announced that Tim Hill, who joined the Yankees in June 2024, would be returning to the Bronx on a $2.5 million deal, plus a $3 million club option for 2026 with a $350,000 buyout clause. Wait, I probably shouldn’t have explained the joke.
Tim Hill
Starting with New York, the Yankees really needed Hill back. He’s the only left-handed pitcher in their bullpen. During the team’s 2024 World Series run, he ran a 1.08 ERA over 10 appearances and 8 1/3 innings. The team’s only other left-handed relievers were Tim Mayza, who threw 2 1/3 innings and is now a Pirate, and Nestor Cortes, who is famously a starter, certainly didn’t look comfortable in his two postseason relief appearances, and is now a Brewer.
Hill is also coming off the best stretch of his career. He started the 2024 season with the White Sox, running a 5.87 ERA over 27 appearances before being released in June. The Yankees signed him two days later, and he finished the season with a 2.05 ERA over 44 innings and 34 appearances. What was different in New York? For starters, a decent bit of luck. Hill allowed a .436 BABIP in Chicago and a .238 BABIP in New York. However, the Yankees also made some drastic changes to Hill’s pitch mix. After arriving in New York, he drastically reduced his four-seamer usage and ditched his slider almost entirely.
Hill doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t miss the plate, which means tons of balls in play. He’s a true side-armer with an arm angle of -20 degrees, and in September and October, he leaned (even further) into that identity, throwing his sinker 80% of the time, his four-seamer 18% of the time, and his slider just 2% of the time. Although batters made louder contact than they had during his time in Chicago, Hill’s already huge groundball rate rose to 70% with the Yankees. He allowed 117 groundballs and just 18 fly balls; in seven of his 35 regular season appearances, every single ball in play that he surrendered was a grounder. You have to imagine the Yankees are hoping to run that strategy right back, encouraging Hill to lean on the sinker and let opponents beat the ball into the ground for as long as it works.
Danny Coulombe
Coulombe returns to the Twins after two seasons with the Orioles, and the need he fills is every bit as dire. The only other lefties the Twins have are Brent Headrick, who has three big league innings to his name, and Kody Funderburk, who ran a 6.49 ERA in 2024. RosterResource doesn’t have Headrick or Funderburk in their projected bullpen. As you might recall, the Minnesota bullpen’s 4.89 ERA in the second half was the third worst in baseball and a major reason that the team crashed out of playoff contention (though it’s worth noting that the bullpen’s 3.72 xFIP was actually seventh best). The need is more general, however, as Coulombe is the only player the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason. If that sounds somewhat familiar, you could be thinking of the trade deadline, during which time Minnesota was battling for its life and made just one move, trading for reliever Trevor Richards. To put it bluntly, this is an infuriating time to be a Twins fan.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Coulombe. He has a long track record of excellence, with a 2.69 ERA over the last five seasons, 2.92 during his three seasons in Minnesota and 2.56 during his two in Baltimore. However, he’s only thrown 130 1/3 major league innings over that period, an average of just 26 per season. In 2024, Coulombe was running a 2.42 ERA and 2.86 FIP when his season was stopped in its tracks in June for surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He returned to make four scoreless appearances in September, but his fastball velocity dropped to just below 89 mph. The Orioles let him walk rather than pick up a $4 million option. It’s hard to imagine the Twins signing him without feeling secure in the knowledge that his velocity would bounce back up to the 91-92 range, but it’s certainly something to watch for as the season starts. Coloumbe also spent most of the 2022 season on the injured list due to a hip impingement and missed time with biceps tendonitis in 2023. Health will be a major factor in determining whether the one major league signing the Twins have made this offseason actually has an impact.
There’s also some question about just what kind of pitcher Coulombe will be with the Twins. Upon joining the Orioles in 2023, Coulombe traded his slider for a sweeper with an extra eight inches of horizontal break, ditched his changeup entirely, and introduced a cutter that replaced his four-seamer as his most-used pitch. In 2024, Coulombe threw either the cutter or the sweeper nearly 60% of the time. If there’s one thing the Twins love, it’s a four-seamer – they’ve finished in the top four in four-seamer percentage in each of the last three seasons – so it will be interesting to see whether they encourage Coulombe to stick with what worked for him in Baltimore, or get him to return to what, you know, worked for him in Minnesota.
That’s the tricky thing about Coulombe; his performance has been consistent while his availability has been anything but. Every pitcher presents some level of injury risk, and Coulombe’s stuff and profile make him not just a great fit for Minnesota, but a desperately needed addition. All the same, if the team is really only going to make one addition, might it have been wiser to choose a safer option?
George Lombard Jr. is a promising prospect with a first-round pedigree. Drafted 26th overall in 2023 out of Gulliver Preparatory School in Pinecrest, Florida, the right-handed-hitting shortstop is also the son of former big league outfielder (and current Detroit Tigers bench coach) George Lombard. Assigned a 45 FV by lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, the athletically gifted youngster is no. 4 on our recently released New York Yankees Top Prospects list.
The 19-year-old’s first full professional season was a mixed bag statistically. Over 497 plate appearances between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley, Lombard logged a .231/.338/.334 slash line, a 99 wRC+, and 32 extra-base hits, five of which left the yard. Taking advantage of his plus wheels, he swiped 39 bases in 47 attempts.
Lombard discussed his game late in the 2024 season.
———
David Laurila: I’ve seen you listed at 6-foot-2, 190 pounds. How accurate is that, and where do you see yourself going forward?
George Lombard Jr: “I’m 6-foot-3 and around 205 pounds. I’ll put on some more weight in the next few years, and I think our goal will end up being around 215, maybe 220. We believe that I can still be fast as I put on weight, so we’re going to continue to do that. A lot of it will just come with physically maturing over time, and putting in the work in the weight room.” Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley introduce the 13th annual Effectively Wild season preview series, then banter about the Tigers signing Jack Flaherty to a smaller-than-expected deal, a long-awaited explanation for the gambling-related firing of umpire Pat Hoberg, and the death and legacy of former commissioner Fay Vincent. Then they preview the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays (43:30) with the Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley, and the 2025 San Diego Padres (1:20:30) with MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.
It was the Before Times, November 21, 2019 to be exact. While dinosaurs no longer roamed the earth, we had yet to learn about COVID-19. Unencumbered, several FanGraphs staffers descended upon Manhattan for a FanGraphs Live event and an Effectively Wild taping. Yours truly was on the Major League Update panel alongside The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler and Marc Carig. Near the end of our half-hour segment, EW co-host Meg Rowley asked us, “What would you change about baseball?… What would you do at this moment, at this juncture, to make baseball more compelling?”
I don’t even recall the answer I intended to give, but after waiting my turn, I built upon one of Marc’s ideas about his desire to see the ball put in play more often. “Start caring about batting average again,” I said. “Because batting average is fun.”
An actual listen to the podcast suggests otherwise, but in my own recollection, it felt like one of those record-scratch moments where everything stops abruptly and you can hear a pin drop. A FanGraphs writer, one with a lengthy track record of applying sabermetric principles, one who made his name with objectivity-based Hall of Fame analysis — that guy, defending batting average? Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hang tight for a moment as I’m in the midst of conferring with editors about today’s piece
12:05
Jay Jaffe: Ok, I’m back but please bear with me if there are further interruptions. My long-awaited-threatened opus — “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again” — is in the editorial pipeline. No, that’s not a joke, it’s a piece that’s five years in the making
Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ll link to today’s piece when it’s up. In the meantime, on with the show…
12:07
WinTwins0410: Jay, thanks for all your Hall of Fame coverage. I know that through your research and writing — and reaching conclusions based on where the data and narratives take you — you have been more enthused about some Eras Committees picks in the past few years than about others. My question: Recognizing that the only other way to get guys in after their BBWAA voting eligibility expires is via the Era Committees — flawed though they may be — is it better to get some of the guys you’ve *really* wanted in as a trade-off for having to accept the induction of some of the ones you think fall short? Put another way, over the past decade-plus, do you feel like it has been worth it to you to see Dick Allen, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo and Alan Trammell inducted if it has also meant the enshrinements of Dave Parker, Jim Kaat, Harold Baines and Jack Morris? (note that I didn’t mention Bud Selig lol)
12:09
Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. The results you cite are a mixed blessing, indeed, but the particularities of the first group lead me to prefer a more inclusive Hall of Fame to a less inclusive one. That said, I’d be happier with the concept of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it also included Lou Whitaker
We are now just over a week from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and while there are still a lot of moves left to make, we have a basic idea how teams will be fundamentally constructed for the 2025 season. Our free agent tracker still lists 124 remaining free agents, as of Monday evening, but most of these players aren’t likely to have major impacts on their new teams. Only 15 of the players are projected on our Depth Charts as being worth one win, and only three players are projected at two wins. But one player remaining, Alex Bregman, stands clearly above the pack, at least as the mean old computers judge the situation. (Sorry, Polar Bear.)
A famous Scott Boras client in his early 30s remaining unsigned due to underwhelming offers in free agency has become a common refrain over the last few years. Unlike with some of their departing free agents over the years, the Astros have made more than a token effort at retaining their star, extending a six-year, $156 million offer in December. The general belief around baseball is that the deal is still on the table, and both the front office and his teammates would be very happy to have him return. But from a baseball standpoint, is Houston necessarily the best place for Bregman? And if it isn’t, which teams should be seriously pursuing him?
Fellow Fangraphéen Michael Baumann discussed the Bregman to the Astros scenario recently, and concluded that given the team’s needs and the acquisition of Isaac Paredes, it would be hard to get the maximum value out of Bregman’s return without doing something shocking, like trading Paredes before the start of the season. Since I’ve completed the initial run of ZiPS projections, I’m now equipped to do some (very) preliminary standings projections. I projected the Astros both with and without Bregman, using the normal methodology I use, which attempts to deal with team upside and downside scenarios and injuries.
ZiPS currently projects the league with a level of parity that appears, at first glance, to be greater than in the typical season. While the Dodgers are projected at 97 wins, the Astros are the only other team projected with an over/under number of 90 wins. That doesn’t mean there will be only two 90-win teams – in fact, you should expect quite a few more teams to reach that threshold — just that there’s a lot of uncertainty in a baseball team’s performance, and currently only two clubs have enough depth across their rosters to avoid the disastrous downside scenarios that are built into this projection system.
At 90.2 wins on average, reconfiguring a healthy Astros team to play Bregman at third, Paredes at second, and Jose Altuve in the outfield (the latter has been discussed), adds 2.8 wins (again, on average) to the bottom line in the ZiPS projections. That’s enough to bump the team’s playoff probability from 69.9% to 78.0%. A gain of just over eight percentage points is solid, to be sure, but how does that compare with the rest of the league?
To answer that question, I redid the simulation an additional 29 times, adding Bregman in turn to each team to see how his presence would change its playoff probability. It’s a bit more complex than simply replacing a team’s existing third baseman because in most cases, Bregman would cause a significant reshuffling of the roster roles. I tried to keep Bregman at third base wherever possible and shift others around him, and I completely avoided implausible scenarios, such as a team signing him to be its starting catcher. So, how’d it shake out?
ZiPS Playoff Probability – Signing Alex Bregman
Team
Current Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds With Bregman
Change
Kansas City Royals
39.7%
54.3%
14.6%
Detroit Tigers
31.2%
43.6%
12.4%
Cincinnati Reds
26.2%
38.5%
12.3%
San Diego Padres
51.7%
63.7%
12.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.4%
61.9%
11.5%
Boston Red Sox
45.3%
56.1%
10.8%
Philadelphia Phillies
65.5%
75.9%
10.4%
Seattle Mariners
53.0%
63.2%
10.2%
Cleveland Guardians
51.3%
61.4%
10.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates
21.9%
31.8%
9.9%
Minnesota Twins
49.6%
58.2%
8.6%
St. Louis Cardinals
27.7%
36.1%
8.4%
Milwaukee Brewers
51.8%
60.0%
8.2%
Houston Astros
69.9%
78.0%
8.2%
New York Mets
61.3%
69.3%
8.0%
Texas Rangers
49.9%
57.8%
7.9%
Teampa Bay Rays
32.6%
40.5%
7.9%
New York Yankees
60.7%
68.4%
7.7%
Toronto Blue Jays
40.7%
47.9%
7.2%
Atlanta Braves
68.8%
75.2%
6.4%
Washington Nationals
5.7%
11.4%
5.7%
Baltimore Orioles
61.4%
66.7%
5.3%
The Athletics
8.9%
14.0%
5.1%
Los Angeles Angels
5.8%
9.8%
4.0%
Miami Marlins
3.2%
6.8%
3.6%
Chicago Cubs
55.8%
59.4%
3.6%
San Francisco Giants
21.4%
24.2%
2.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers
87.8%
89.8%
2.0%
Colorado Rockies
0.8%
2.6%
1.8%
Chicago White Sox
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
There are basically two questions here for projection systems to answer: 1) How many wins would Bregman add? 2) What are the utility of those wins? Bregman would represent a massive upgrade for the White Sox, but they are extremely unlikely to be relevant enough for those wins to actually matter. (Bregman would help the Pale Hose avoid rounding to zero, skyrocketing their playoff probability to 1-in-1,455!) Their rivals on the North Side, the Cubs, also rank very low on this list for the opposite reason: ZiPS already sees the Cubs as having a very strong offense. Sure, marginal wins are valuable for any team, but it’s hard for the Cubs to really leverage Bregman without one of those downside scenarios occurring, such as underperformance from guys like Matt Shaw or Seiya Suzuki, or a rash of injuries to key players. If there were a pitching equivalent of Bregman available, the Cubs would likely be at the very top of this list.
The Astros are only in the middle of the pack in terms of playoff improvement with Bregman. But two other teams that have been rumored at times to be in the mix would see a major surge in their postseason odds if they were to sign him: the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox. The Tigers are in a position where the extra wins they’d get from Bregman would translate into a huge playoff probability boost, and though ZiPS thinks Jace Jung would be solid at third, signing Bregman would trigger a roster shuffle that would tighten up right field and the short side of Detroit’s DH platoon — the team’s two weakest positions, according to ZiPS. There’s been some speculation that Bregman could play second base for the Red Sox, but as ZiPS sees it, Boston would get more value from keeping Bregman at third, moving Rafael Devers to first, and letting Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida fight it out at DH. This alignment would require prospect Kristian Campbell to be on the roster and filling the team’s current hole at the keystone.
But the best place for Bregman, at least in the ZiPS projections, is another AL Central team: the Kansas City Royals. While the corner outfield scenario is absolutely brutal, especially if MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe get the vast majority of the playing time in left and right field, respectively, ZiPS sees merit in shifting Maikel Garcia or Michael Massey into one of the corner spots on the grass, with Bregman taking over at third. ZiPS also thinks Bregman would provide a terrific resolution of the hot corner questions in Cincinnati, though there’s probably even less of a chance the Reds would actually do this than the Royals. The Padres likely don’t have enough payroll flexibility even to offer Bregman a short-term deal with an opt out, but if they could find room in their budget, sell him on playing second base, and shift Jake Cronenworth to left field — or even convince Bregman to play left — there would be more high-end scenarios in which San Diego could make the Dodgers uncomfortable.
My gut says the Tigers will be the team to land Bregman, and likely very soon if it happens. They just shored up the rotation with the signing of Jack Flaherty at an extremely reasonable price, and as the projected fourth-place team in the AL Central right now, they have a lot to gain by adding a legitimate All-Star. There’s a way, but is there a will?
I worry that Jackson Merrill’s incredible rookie season has been appropriately recognized but underexamined. For any rookie to put up 5.3 WAR and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting is incredible; for a kid who was 20 years old on Opening Day and learning to play center field on the job, it’s extraordinary.
As impressive as that one-line summary is, Paul Skenes (and to a lesser extent Jackson Chourio) sucked up a lot of the shine that would have accompanied such a performance in most seasons. Shine can be hard to come by for a player on a West Coast non-Dodgers team that’s already got plenty of stars to promote.
So I found myself, in the dead of winter, contemplating what comes after the abstract for Merrill. Specifically, whether a certain nit is worth picking. Read the rest of this entry »
If you had to associate a single current major leaguer with throwing sinkers, Framber Valdez would be toward the top of the list. His standout career is all about throwing sinkers and keeping the ball on the ground. So imagine my surprise when I was perusing a leaderboard of starters who used their secondaries most frequently with two strikes in 2024. The top of that list is dotted with pitchers who confounded my classification system: We’ve got Corbin Burnes, Graham Ashcraft, and Clarke Schmidt there representing the cutter brigade. Most of the other pitchers in the top 10 mix in cutters liberally with two strikes. Then we’ve got Valdez, in 10th and looking sorely out of place.
Train your eyes on Valdez, and you’ll start to ask yourself: What’s going on here? In some ways, his statistics are consistent to the point of monotony. Take a look at his strikeout and walk rates over the years, plus some league-adjusted run prevention numbers:
Steady as She Goes – Framber Valdez, Career
Year
K%
BB%
ERA-
FIP-
2018
22.1%
15.6%
53
112
2019
20.7%
13.4%
130
110
2020
26.4%
5.6%
81
64
2021
21.9%
10.1%
73
95
2022
23.5%
8.1%
73
78
2023
24.8%
7.1%
82
82
2024
24.0%
7.8%
73
80
After some early-career wildness, Valdez has produced a string of near-identical seasons. But while doing that, he’s cut back on using his sinker to finish off hitters. I know what you’re thinking: Sure, to throw his wipeout curveball. But nope! It’s a changeup story:
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Jay Jaffe
