Remembering Bob Watson, Slugger and Pioneer
Though he played regularly for only 10 of the 19 seasons he spent in the majors, Bob Watson left his mark on the field as a two-time All-Star and an exceptional hitter whose numbers were suppressed by the pitcher-friendly Astrodome, not unlike former teammate Jimmy Wynn, who died on March 26. Off the field, Watson left an even bigger imprint. When he was hired to serve as the general manager of the Astros, he was just the second African American in the game’s history to fulfill that role. He lasted two seasons at that post before accepting that same title with the Yankees, though the job turned out to be much different in the orbit of owner George Steinbrenner and a dysfunctional front office. Nonetheless, when the Yankees won the World Series in 1996, Watson became the first African American GM to oversee a championship team. He later had a role in assembling the rosters of two Olympic medal-winning USA teams and spent nine years as a vice president for Major League Baseball.
Watson, who battled health issues on and off since being diagnosed with prostate cancer in 1994, died on Thursday at the age of 74 following a long battle with kidney disease.
Though known as “Bull” for his sturdy physique (often cited as 6-foot-2 in the 205-217 pound range during his playing days but listed at a more modest six feet and 201 pounds via Baseball-Reference) and his strength, Watson was “a gentle giant… an incredibly kind person, and a mentor” according to Brian Cashman, who served as the Yankees’ assistant general manager under Watson and then succeeded him upon Watson’s resignation in February, 1998.
Born on April 10, 1946 in Los Angeles to parents who separated before his birth, Watson was raised by his grandparents, Henry and Olsie Stewart, in the city’s South Central neighborhood. He starred as a catcher at John C. Fremont High School, playing on a team that won the 1963 Los Angeles city championship alongside future major league outfielders Willie Crawford and Bobby Tolan. After graduating, he attended Los Angeles Harbor College, and signed with the Astros on January 31, 1965, just over four months ahead of the first amateur draft. He received a $3,200 signing bonus. Read the rest of this entry »
OOTP Brewers: The Corbin That Burnes Twice as Bright Burnes Half as Long
On Sunday, Christian Yelich powered the virtual Brewers to an emphatic 9-3 victory over Trevor Bauer and the Reds. It was part of a week long five-homer outburst, the driving force behind a .303/.361/.818 slash line. And it brought Yelich to 2.9 WAR on the season, the third-best tally in the majors. In other words, Yelich is picking up right where he left off in 2019.
So, too, are the Brewers. That rout was part of a 3-1 series victory over the Reds. The other series of the week was a 2-1 triumph over the Cubs. Together, they left us eight games over .500 and in first place by four games in the NL Central. Perhaps most impressively, the team’s run differential is now positive despite a 25-run loss earlier in the year.
But the good times weren’t universal. In Thursday’s contest against the Reds, starter Corbin Burnes felt a twinge in his shoulder as he pitched in the third inning. He left the game and immediately returned to Milwaukee for an MRI, which revealed severe shoulder inflammation. Within a day, team doctors ruled him out for the remainder of the season — he’ll hopefully be ready for rehab over the winter and pitch the entire 2021 season, but 2020 is out of the question at this point.
The pitching casualties are starting to pile up. Burnes joins Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 and Alex Claudio on the out-for-quite-a-while list — Lindblom will be able to begin rehab assignments in late July, while Claudio is out for the year. Brett Anderson is, for the moment, healthy, but he’s already hit the IL twice this year with forearm stiffness and a hamstring strain. There’s no guarantee he’ll be able to keep it together the rest of the season. Read the rest of this entry »
Parsing MLB’s Claim of a $4 Billion Loss
Last week, MLB presented documents to the player’s union regarding the financial implications of playing the 2020 season without fans. In an exclusive report, the Associated Press has revealed a considerable amount of the contents of those disclosures. The main takeaways are in the title — “MLB projects $640K per game loss with no fans” — and the third paragraph, which reads:
Teams say the proposed method of salvaging a season delayed by the coronavirus pandemic would still cause a $4 billion loss and would give major league players 89% of revenue.
That $4 billion figure was echoed by Commissioner Rob Manfred on CNN on Friday, except that he indicated in that interview those would be the losses if no season is played. Given that these documents are an attempt to convince the MLPBA to take less money and to put public opinion on the side of the owners against the players, it is fair to take these figures with a bit of a grain of salt. Let’s try to work through the numbers and answer some of the questions raised by the information in the presentation as reported in the AP piece.
First, the big question.
Are the owners going to lose $4 billion?
No. At least, they won’t if games are played. There’s a graph in the AP piece that shows team-by-team losses from an 82-game schedule played with no fans in the stands. The losses range from $312 million for the Yankees down to $84 million for the Tigers. The total losses come to around $4.4 billion, an average of $147 million per team and a median of $135 million. But this figure is misleading as it does not include MLB’s estimate of central revenues, which amount to $1.35 billion. Even taking MLB at its word, the losses immediately move down to $3 billion.
And depending on how revenues and costs are interpreted, the losses might be considerably lighter. First, there’s the issue of amateur spending. In the March agreement, the players agreed to let the owners defer about $425 million in spending to future years, but that $425 million is still included in the loss figure for this year. Read the rest of this entry »
How They Got There: The 1980-1989 AL Cy Young Winners
Last week, I explored how each of the National League Cy Young winners of the 1980s were acquired. Six came to their teams in trade, while two were acquired through the amateur draft and one had his contract purchased from the Mexican League. Highlighting the American League list is a 19th overall draft pick, a 19th round draft pick, and two players who are probably better known for their post-playing careers than they were for their time as big league pitchers. Here’s a look back at how the AL Cy Young winners of the 1980s were acquired.
Rank | Name | Team | Age | How Acquired | W | L | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CY | Steve Stone | BAL | 32 | Free Agent (CHW) Nov’78 | 25 | 7 | 250.2 | 3.23 | 3.99 | 2.9 |
2nd | Mike Norris | OAK | 25 | Drafted 1st Rd (24) ’73 | 22 | 9 | 284.1 | 2.53 | 3.25 | 6.0 |
Rank | Name | Team | Age | How Acquired | W | Sv | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
3rd | Rich Gossage | NYY | 28 | Free Agent (PIT) Nov’77 | 6 | 33 | 99.0 | 2.27 | 2.48 | 3.2 |
Eight years into his big league career, Steve Stone had played on just two winning teams. As a rookie in 1971, he made 19 starts for a first place Giants team with four future Hall of Famers on the roster. Six years later, he was a 15-game winner for a third place White Sox team that came won 90 games. The following season, they lost 90. A 31-year-old free agent entering the 1978-79 offseason, Stone had plenty of suitors. Playing for a winning ball club was certainly a top priority, which made his decision to sign a four-year, $760,000 contract with the Baltimore Orioles an unsurprising one. Read the rest of this entry »
Top 46 Prospects: Cleveland Indians
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cleveland Indians. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nolan Jones | 22.0 | AA | 3B | 2021 | 50 |
2 | George Valera | 19.5 | A | CF | 2022 | 50 |
3 | Tyler Freeman | 21.0 | A+ | SS | 2022 | 50 |
4 | Brayan Rocchio | 19.3 | A- | SS | 2022 | 50 |
5 | James Karinchak | 24.7 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 50 |
6 | Daniel Johnson | 24.9 | AAA | RF | 2020 | 45+ |
7 | Daniel Espino | 19.4 | A- | RHP | 2022 | 45+ |
8 | Bo Naylor | 20.2 | A | C | 2022 | 45+ |
9 | Lenny Torres | 19.6 | R | RHP | 2023 | 45 |
10 | Triston McKenzie | 22.8 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 45 |
11 | Luis Oviedo | 21.0 | A | RHP | 2022 | 45 |
12 | Sam Hentges | 23.8 | AA | LHP | 2021 | 45 |
13 | Ethan Hankins | 20.0 | A | RHP | 2023 | 45 |
14 | Logan Allen | 23.0 | MLB | LHP | 2020 | 45 |
15 | Emmanuel Clase | 22.2 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40+ |
16 | Angel Martinez | 18.3 | R | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
17 | Junior Sanquintin | 18.4 | R | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
18 | Aaron Bracho | 19.1 | A- | LF | 2024 | 40+ |
19 | Gabriel Rodriguez | 18.2 | R | 3B | 2023 | 40+ |
20 | Carlos Vargas | 20.6 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40+ |
21 | Jose Tena | 19.2 | R | SS | 2024 | 40+ |
22 | Scott Moss | 25.6 | AAA | LHP | 2020 | 40+ |
23 | Alexfri Planez | 18.8 | R | RF | 2024 | 40 |
24 | Nick Sandlin | 23.4 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
25 | Richard Palacios | 23.0 | A | 2B | 2022 | 40 |
26 | Jose Fermin | 21.1 | A | SS | 2023 | 40 |
27 | Bobby Bradley | 24.0 | MLB | DH | 2019 | 40 |
28 | Eli Morgan | 24.0 | AAA | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
29 | Kyle Nelson | 23.9 | AAA | LHP | 2020 | 40 |
30 | Yordys Valdes | 18.8 | R | SS | 2024 | 40 |
31 | Cody Morris | 23.5 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
32 | Will Benson | 21.9 | A+ | RF | 2022 | 40 |
33 | Hunter Gaddis | 22.1 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40 |
34 | Jean Carlos Mejia | 23.7 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
35 | Yu-Cheng Chang | 24.8 | MLB | 3B | 2020 | 40 |
36 | Adam Scott | 24.6 | AA | LHP | 2022 | 40 |
37 | Ernie Clement | 24.2 | AAA | SS | 2020 | 40 |
38 | Andres Melendez | 19.0 | R | C | 2022 | 40 |
39 | Cam Hill | 26.0 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
40 | Jared Robinson | 25.5 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
41 | Bryan Lavastida | 21.5 | A | C | 2022 | 35+ |
42 | Nick Mikolajchak | 22.5 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 35+ |
43 | Steven Kwan | 22.7 | A+ | CF | 2022 | 35+ |
44 | Jhonkensy Noel | 18.8 | R | 1B | 2022 | 35+ |
45 | Victor Nova | 20.4 | R | 3B | 2023 | 35+ |
46 | Johnathan Rodriguez | 20.5 | A- | RF | 2023 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Anthony Gose
Anthony Gose, LHP
Gose lost rookie eligibility back in 2012 as an outfielder, so he’s not eligible for this list, but he deserves to be mentioned because of the likelihood he impacts Cleveland’s bullpen this year. He was a two-way prospect who Philadelphia drafted in the 2008 second round, and Gose quickly reached Hi-A as a power/speed/arm center field prospect. He was traded to Toronto as part of the Roy Halladay deal in 2010. Some strikeout-related statistical yellow flags emerged once he reached the upper levels of the minors and his bat stalled out against big league pitching. Toronto traded him to Detroit for Devon Travis and things spiraled from there, culminating in a dugout confrontation with Toledo manager Lloyd McClendon in the middle of 2016. The following year, Detroit moved him to the mound. Gose was throwing very hard almost immediately (he was up to 97 in high school) but only pitched in 11 games at Hi-A all year. He elected free agency after the season and has since bounced around, first to Texas on a minor league deal, then Rule 5’d and returned by Houston, and then to Cleveland in 2019. He was touching 100 this spring, he has a plus curveball, and he had struck out nine in 5.2 innings before the shutdown. He could have a huge impact on Cleveland’s bullpen.
Young Hit Tool Sleepers
Jose Pastrano, SS
Jonathan Lopez, 3B
Christian Cairo, 2B
Joe Naranjo, 1B
Luis Durango Jr., OF
The most common Cleveland prospect trope is the contact-oriented infielder; here are several more. Pastrano signed for $1.5 million last year. He’s 17.7 on date of publication, and like a lot of the players in this system, he’s a switch-hitting infielder with advanced feel for contact and a medium frame. I’m a little lower on Pastrano than others because I think he’s a 4 athlete. Lopez was sent to Mahoning Valley at 19 and dealt with some injuries last year. He has a sweet lefty swing and I think he has had some of his playing time crowded out by other talented youngsters in this system. Cairo is Miguel Cairo’s son. I think he has a utility ceiling based on the tools. Naranjo was a SoCal pop-up bat who needs to get there by way of an elite hit tool. He doesn’t have much power projection so the contact has to carry the whole profile, à la Jake Bauers‘ prospectdom. Durango has a tweener fourth outfielder vibe but could be a regular if he ends up with a plus bat. He signed for $500,000 last year.
40-man Depth Arms
Jerson Ramirez, RHP
Jordan Stephens, RHP
Kirk McCarty, LHP
Raymond Burgos, LHP
Ramirez is 21 and was the last cut from the main section of the list. He’s only up to 95 coming out of the bullpen and the body is pretty maxed out, but I love how his arm works and how athletic he is, and think he might yet throw harder. I’m staying on Stephens to some degree. He was a 40 FV swingman type, then had a bad 2019. McCarty is another lefty whose fastball has huge carry and misses bats even though it’s 88-92. His breaking ball has vertical action. Burgos, the youngest of this group at age 21, throws strikes, has an average breaking ball, and a chance for an above-average changeup. The velo is a little light for the main section of the list.
Toolsy, but Contact/Profile Concerns
Quentin Holmes, CF
Oscar Gonzalez, RF
Yainer Diaz, C
Will Bartlett, 1B
Holmes can fly but still has very limited feel for baseball at just shy of age 21. Gonzalez is a big-framed corner outfield prospect with huge power and one of the least-selective approaches in pro baseball. Diaz is a college-aged catcher who was far too physical for the AZL, where he did most of his 2019 statistical damage. He does have above-average power but is also quite swing-happy and has a hole on the outer half. Bartlett, 19, has 55 raw but is a low probability, right/right first base fit.
System Overview
For a while there, it was clear Cleveland was willing to pay a talent premium for young big leaguers and near-ready prospects. Trading Tahnaj Thomas for Jordan Luplow and Jhon Torres for Oscar Mercado, among others, was at least partially motivated by the org’s competitive window with its 2017 core. Last year, the opposite started to occur. The Victor Nova and Andres Melendez acquisitions were motivated by 40-man space, but it was also the first time in a while that we got to see Cleveland’s pro department target low-level players.
The amateur arm of the org shows clear patterns of player acquisition, which I’ve gone on about ad nauseum for a while. They seem to end up with a lot of very young players (Jordan Brown, Raynel Delgado, Korey Holland), contact-oriented hitters (both domestic and international), pitchers with odd deliveries (there are several sidearmers in this system, and remember this org used a Rule 5 pick on Hoby Milner), and prospects who performed as underclassmen and regressed in their draft year.
Sunday Notes: Rays Prospect Greg Jones is Mellow (and Tooled Up)
Greg Jones has a quiet demeanor and loud tools. The former rang apparent when the 22-year-old shortstop called himself “kind of a mellow guy” in a recent phone conversation. The latter is why he’s No. 12 on our Tampa Bay Top Prospects list. Last summer, the Rays tabbed Jones 22nd overall as a draft-eligible sophomore out of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington.
He’d bypassed an earlier opportunity to turn pro. In 2017, the Baltimore Orioles had taken Jones in the 17th round out of Cary (NC) High School. He didn’t think he was ready. Moreover, his family wanted him to further his education. It would have taken more than the Orioles were willing to offer to change that.
“I had a number in mind, but they weren’t going to come up to it,” Jones explained. “So I was like, ‘I’ll just go to college.’ I took my talent to [UNC-Wilmington] and molded it into what I really want to be.”
The self-described late-bloomer went on to log a 1.034 OPS in his second, and final, collegiate season. He could have returned for a third, but given how much his stock had risen, bargaining power was now on his side. In what he called “a position to get the most money I possibly could,” Jones landed a signing bonus just north of $3M.
After putting pen to paper, he made the nine-plus-hour drive from the Tar Heel State to Fishkill, New York, where he joined Tampa Bay’s short-season affiliate, the Hudson Valley Renegades. Upon arriving, he ambled into the clubhouse and found his locker. A uniform top was hanging there, but no pants. “I had to go pick them up,” Jones recalled. “Luckily they had some that fit me.” Read the rest of this entry »
Effectively Wild Episode 1542: The Players’ PR Handicap
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the announcement of a second Astros sign-stealing documentary and what they would want out of a sign-stealing docuseries, the ongoing negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA about starting the season, the public perception problems the players face, the way the media has covered the financial component of the talks, the long-term effects of 2020 on what baseball will look like, fake crowd noise on baseball broadcasts, and a Scott Boras rocket analogy. Then (56:03) they talk to Greg Bouris, the director of communications for the MLB Players Association from 1999 to 2018, about whether public opinion matters in labor relations, how the union tries to educate players and keep their comments consistent, the benefits and drawbacks of social media messaging, how to make the players’ case more persuasive to fans, how he would frame the players’ side of the dispute in the current climate, the likelihood of a future work stoppage, the growth of non-attendance-related revenue, and more.
Audio intro: Albert Hammond Jr., "Rocket"
Audio interstitial: Midnight Oil, "Read About It"
Audio outro: The Only Ones, "Re-Union"
Link to Joe Buck on fake crowd noise
Link to Jeff Passan on baseball’s financial battle
Link to Snell’s Twitch comments
Link to Doolittle’s first Twitter thread
Link to Doolittle’s second Twitter thread
Link to Craig Edwards on team TV revenue
Link to Craig Edwards on the MLB-MLBPA negotiations
Link to Craig Goldstein on the MLB-MLBPA negotiations
Link to Ben on Lords of the Realm
Link to Scott Boras comments
Link to Meg’s rocket doodle
Link to Power X Communications website
Link to order The MVP Machine
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FanGraphs Live! Friday: MLB the Show, Cubs at Padres, 2 PM ET
In this week’s MLB The Show 20 stream, featuring Paul Sporer, Ben Clemens, and Dan Szymborski, the Cubs and Padres head to the Polo Grounds at 2 PM ET.
In light of how unlikely it is that professional sports will be played in California until at least the end of summer, we’re relocating in both time and space to play this game at the Polo Grounds. Opened in 1890 to replace the previous, less famous Polo Grounds, it was the home of the (baseball) New York Giants for three decades and the New York Jets in the AFL for a few years. It was demolished in 1964, leading pitching Dick Donovan to quip, upon seeing the rubble, that there “must have had a helluva game there last night.”
COVID-19 Roundup: Manfred Announces Testing Plan
This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.
Rob Manfred Lays Out a Testing Plan
On Thursday night, commissioner Rob Manfred released details of the league’s plan for protecting players and personnel upon the start of the baseball season. In an interview on CNN, he laid out some key bullet points of their design:
- Players and on-site personnel will be tested multiple times a week, using an MLB-owned lab that previously conducted PED tests.
- Should anyone show any symptoms, they will be immediately tested, regardless of the regularly planned testing schedule
- Additionally, anyone who has been in contact with any individual who tests positive at any point will immediately be tested as well
- Anyone testing positive will be quarantined, effective immediately, until they have tested negative twice in a one-day span
Further details will likely emerge in the coming days. For now, it represents a meaningful step forward in the league’s planning, at least publicly. Until now, every plan we’ve heard has been couched in hypotheticals: assumptions of testing availability, general assurances that they are considering the issue, and so on. This plan is concrete and covers contingencies. Read the rest of this entry »