Effectively Wild Episode 2231: Baseball Bothsidesism

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a mayoral Yankees/Mets cap and the history of politicians flubbing comments about baseball, tease their next playoff livestream, and discuss when it’s acceptable to call a game “winner take all,” the conclusion of the Division Series round, José Ramírez the motivator, the Tigers’ 2025 outlook, nobody believing in the Dodgers (supposedly), how Dave Roberts is doing, injury-compromised players, the first games of the NLCS and ALCS, the clutch hitting of Kiké Hernández, Giancarlo Stanton, and…Clayton Kershaw, misconceptions about one-knee-down catching, the 2025 Dodgers rotation, an uptick in October TV ratings, and the significance of the CS matchups.

Audio intro: Kite Person, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Adams cap article
Link to NYT on the Adams cap
Link to Adams Mets fandom
Link to Adams 9/11 comment
Link to Clinton story 1
Link to Clinton story 2
Link to Clinton story 3
Link to Clinton New Yorker cover
Link to Giuliani story
Link to de Blasio story
Link to Obama story 1
Link to Obama story 2
Link to politicians story
Link to “no cap” definition
Link to Ramírez report
Link to Ramírez and Mario Kart
Link to Trueblood tweet
Link to Muncy clip
Link to Muncy/Hernández quotes
Link to Curtis on doubters
Link to Roberts confession
Link to original Roberts quote
Link to Dodgers streak story
Link to updated playoff hitting data
Link to postseason hitters, min. 50 PA
Link to FG payroll page
Link to one-knee-down story
Link to PB/WP rates
Link to Cooper thread
Link to Swanson EW episode
Link to BP fielding data on Naylor
Link to FG fielding data on Naylor
Link to MLB.com on Kershaw
Link to MLBTR on Kershaw
Link to MLBTR on Stone
Link to Maldonado surgery story
Link to Raleigh surgery story
Link to Sheehan on second chances
Link to Jay on the Yankees’ pen
Link to Langs on slams
Link to “must-win” quote
Link to Trop update
Link to Strike Four

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Locally Sourced Fall League Notes: Andrew Painter, Ethan Salas, Zyhir Hope

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This past Saturday, the Arizona Fall League played host to a tripleheader, with start times staggered enough to see at least most of all three contests at the various ballparks in the eastern part of the Phoenix metro area. My notes and thoughts on the standouts from that day, as well as Monday’s solo game in Peoria, are below. You can find the end-of-year reports and grades on the 2024 Fall Leaguers on the Fall League tab of The Board. Read the rest of this entry »


The Yankees’ Remade Bullpen Has Shined So Far in October

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — The Yankees’ road to an AL-best 94 wins wasn’t the smoothest ride. They overcame significant injuries, and at times dealt with a lack of production from just about everybody besides Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Even as they fought off the Orioles for the AL East flag, they struggled to find the right mix in the bullpen, as All-Star closer Clay Holmes suddenly struggled to lock down the ninth inning. A September shuffle that put Luke Weaver in the closer’s slot has paid big dividends, however, and so far in this postseason, the Yankees bullpen has been a difference-maker. In Monday night’s American League Championship Series opener against the Guardians, Weaver notched a five-out save to preserve a 5-2 victory.

The 31-year-old Weaver — a former first-round pick who until September 6 had never recorded a major league save — has pitched in every Yankees playoff game thus far. He closed out all three Division Series wins against the Royals, going four outs in Game 1 and five outs in Game 3; he also made a one-out cameo in Game 2, New York’s lone defeat. In six shutout innings, he’s allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out nine of the 21 batters he’s faced (42.9%).

In fact, the Yankees bullpen has allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 18 2/3 postseason innings, for a 0.48 ERA. The unit as a whole has surrendered just 11 hits and five walks while striking out 20 (28.2%). Holmes, like Weaver, has pitched every game and has thrown six scoreless innings himself, striking out four while yielding just three hits and one walk.

“Comfortable is not quite the right word. I think tonight was a little bit of a grind for me personally,” said Weaver of Monday night’s 24-pitch save. “I felt really good coming in in the eighth. The ninth, coming back out for the first hitter was a little sloppy, I think that was noticeable. The windup just felt a little funky. I felt the adrenaline coming out of the eighth, [but] going back out for the ninth, was a little depleted… I felt like it was a tick down.”

After Weaver walked Lane Thomas on five pitches to lead off the ninth, he gave himself a bit of a pep talk, flashing a bit of humor as he explained. “So when Thomas got on, it just became like, ‘What are we doing? The fans don’t come here to watch that.’ So I was able to throw some good pitches, and was looking for the double play, but was able to get these good counts.”

Weaver went long because the Guardians had threatened to tie the game. Starter Carlos Rodón had dominated for six innings, holding Cleveland to just three hits while striking out nine without a walk, generating 25 whiffs along the way; meanwhile the Yankees built up a 4-0 lead against starter Alex Cobb and reliever Joey Cantillo, who threw four wild pitches and walked three while retiring just one hitter. The Guardians cut the lead to 4-1 when no. 9 hitter Brayan Rocchio led off the sixth inning with a solo homer off Rodón.

As was the case in the Yankees’ two ALDS wins in Kansas City, Holmes was the first number called by manager Aaron Boone. He didn’t waste much time, inducing Thomas to hit his second pitch, a 96-mph sinker on the outside edge, for a soft groundout. He fell behind Josh Naylor 2-1 before Naylor lined a high-and-away sinker to center field for a routine out. Holmes capped his night by battling pinch-hitter Kyle Manzardo (hitting for right fielder Jhonkensy Noel) for eight pitches before striking him out chasing a low-and-inside sweeper.

“He’s been the nastiest guy we’ve had out there,” said Weaver of Holmes’ middle relief work. “He’s absolutely setting the tone.”

With no off day before Game 2, and with two lefties and a switch-hitter looming, the lane was clear for lefty Tim Hill to pitch the eighth. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt swapped out lefty Bo Naylor for righty Austin Hedges, an even weaker hitter despite the platoon advantage; he flied out. Andrés Giménez followed with a single, and then Rocchio shot a single under the glove of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was back in the lineup for the first time since fracturing two fingers on his right hand on September 29. Rounding first, Rocchio made contact with Hill, who in moving to cover the bag ended up right in the baseline. Though the pitcher had the ball and tagged Rocchio once he retreated, the umpires ruled he had already committed obstruction, and awarded Rocchio second base.

Giménez scored on Steven Kwan’s single, offsetting Giancarlo Stanton’s solo homer in the top of the frame; it was the first earned run surrendered by the Yankees bullpen this postseason. That prompted Boone to summon Weaver, who fanned pinch-hitter Will Brennan (batting for David Fry) on three low pitches, the last a changeup in the dirt, then induced José Ramírez to ground out to second base.

In the ninth, after walking Thomas, Weaver recovered to strike out the side. Naylor chased a low-and-away changeup. Daniel Schneemann battled to a full count, then tipped a 95-mph four-seamer into Austin Wells’ mitt for the second out. Finally, Weaver blew Hedges away on three pitches, giving the Yankees a 1-0 series lead. 

Afterward, pitching coach Matt Blake praised Weaver’s command as the key to his success in working long. “His ability to get in the strike zone early and be effective and be efficient with his pitch counts — he can collect outs quickly and he’ll strike guys out, but he doesn’t have to do seven or eight pitches to get there.”

While the save may not have been easy, Weaver still looked like a pitcher who had been doing the job of shutting the door for much longer than six weeks. A year ago, the role would have been unthinkable. Weaver was designated for assignment twice in 2023, first by the Reds on August 16 — a point at which he briefly wondered if he’d reached the end of the line — and then by the Mariners on September 10. Even with three solid September starts for the Yankees, he finished with a 6.40 ERA, his second season in a row and his third out of four above 6.00; to that point across eight partial seasons in the majors, he owned a 5.14 ERA in 574 1/3 innings, mainly as a starter.

The Yankees had seen some traits in Weaver’s spin rate, arsenal, and clean mechanics that they believed they could tweak, and Weaver embraced the possibilities. Over the winter, he simplifid his delivery, ditching a high leg kick and adopting a slide step. He also adjusted the grips of his four-seam fastball — previously, his middle finger wasn’t in contact with a seam, costing him spin efficiency — and his changeup, helping him generate more spin. Needing to throw 15–20 pitches per outing instead of 80–100, he gained velocity, and recovered more quickly. Two weeks ago, Weaver likened the streamlining to a runner with smoother, tighter arm swings and less wasted energy.

Working out of the bullpen allowed Weaver to ditch his less effective knuckle curve, slider, and sweeper. The changes “helped bring some earlier contact, less foul balls, less getting beat on the pitch,” as he said on Monday. “I think it’s really just the perfect storm of better movement and more confidence.”

For the season, Weaver pitched to a 2.89 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 62 appearances totaling 84 innings. As Marquee Sports’ Lance Brodzowski noted, the vertical separation between Weaver’s fastball and changeup increased from about 8 inches last year (16 inches of induced vertical break for the four-seamer, 8.2 for the changeup) to about 14 inches this year (18.6 inches for the four-seamer, 4.6 for the changeup). The results on those two pitches improved dramatically:

Luke Weaver Results by Pitch Type
Pitch Season % Velo PA HR AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA EV Whiff
Four-Seamer 2023 43.5% 94.0 249 11 .311 .289 .543 .499 .395 .372 90.8 17.5%
Four-Seamer 2024 48.5% 95.7 142 5 .177 .197 .331 .404 .271 .306 92.5 30.0%
Changeup 2023 20.0% 86.1 120 5 .316 .274 .547 .411 .373 .304 87.0 32.3%
Changeup 2024 27.7% 88.6 108 1 .172 .163 .263 .254 .215 .215 83.9 48.0%
Cutter 2023 11.0% 90.3 63 4 .218 .222 .473 .436 .329 .321 89.2 25.2%
Cutter 2024 22.6% 91.3 80 4 .181 .273 .444 .472 .289 .349 86.0 22.8%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

At the outset of the season, the Yankees saw Weaver as a potential sixth starter who could provide multiple relief innings in lower-leverage situations. He allowed seven runs in 10 2/3 innings over his first six appearances, but graduated to a higher-leverage role by reeling off 18 consecutive scoreless innings from April 20 through May 20, giving up just five hits and two walks while striking out 24.

Weaver endured some midseason ups and downs, posting a 3.66 ERA and 4.60 FIP across 32 appearances from May 22 through the end of July. Meanwhile, a whole drama unfolded around Holmes. Through June 9, the 31-year-old sinkerballer allowed runs in just two of his first 30 games, posting a 1.23 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Despite scuffling a bit over the rest of the first half, he made his second All-Star team in three years on the strength of a 2.77 ERA and 2.73 FIP. Even so, he’d already set a career high with six blown saves in 27 chances, owing largely to a .342 BABIP. He blew two of his first three save opportunities coming out of the break; one of those blown saves came in an eventual 7-6 win over the Phillies on July 30, hours after the trade deadline passed.

After jumping out to a surprising 40-19 start without the injured Gerrit Cole, the Yankees went just 25-26 in June and July; the swing merely dropped them from two games ahead of the Orioles to half a game back, but without Holmes’ blown saves, they might have enjoyed a bit of breathing room. At the deadline, even as general manager Brian Cashman supplemented the bullpen by adding Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs and Enyel De Los Santos from the Padres, Holmes remained Boone’s ninth-inning guy despite increasing scrutiny and pressure. In his role as team captain, Judge expressed his support for Holmes after the Phillies game, which saw the pitcher surrender a one-run lead on two singles, two groundouts, and a wild pitch:

Holmes pitched better in August, but still blew two saves, making him just the fifth pitcher over the last decade to reach double digits in that category. By the numbers, which included a 2.67 ERA and 2.48 FIP through August, his season was in line with his 2022 and ’23 campaigns except for a few extra barrels, but the late-inning losses helped keep the Orioles around. As I noted on September 4 while writing about the Yankees’ left field situation, Boone’s avoidance of publicly acknowledging the struggles of both Holmes and Alex Verdugo may have earned loyalty within the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the rest of the organization), but only wound up a frustrated fan base and invited media scrutiny. Things reached a breaking point on September 3, when Holmes served up a walk-off grand slam to the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford. Boone finally addressed the situation the next day: “In the short term, we’ll kind of just get a little creative” with a closer-by-committee arrangement.

He never did have to get too creative. On September 6, he called upon Weaver to close out a 3-0 lead against the Cubs, and the righty did the job, striking out two in the process. “I couldn’t see straight. I was blacked out for the most part. I was on pure adrenaline, but it was a great time,” Weaver said. He went 4-for-4 in save chances, and allowed just one run (unearned) in 11 innings after taking over the role; most impressively, he struck out 24 of 40 hitters in that capacity (60%) while giving up just four hits and three runs. With Holmes in a setup role, things clicked into place for a remade bullpen that included the additions of lefties Hill (who had been released by the White Sox in late June) and Tim Mayza (released by the Blue Jays in early July) and the returns of righties Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton from injuries; the former didn’t debut until May 22 due to a bout of shoulder soreness, while the latter was shelved from May 28 until September 7 due to a lat strain. From September 6 onward, the Yankees bullpen threw 81 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a major league-best 32.5% strikeout rate.

Since October rolled around, New York’s relievers have been even better. And now, they’ve helped bring the Yankees within three wins of their first trip to the World Series since 2009.


The Machine Has To Keep Chugging Along

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

LOS ANGELES — In early May, Ben Casparius struck out seven Springfield Cardinals over 5.1 scoreless innings, leading the Double-A Tulsa Drillers to a dominant 11-0 victory. Five months later, he was ripping filthy sliders to close out Game 1 of the NLCS for one of the richest teams in the sport.

This is life in the Dodgers bullpen at the moment. After a cursed season for injuries, one where they’ve deployed Plans A, B, C, and D, their Plan E involves a trio of talented-but-unproven arms picking up more innings than Dodgers manager Dave Roberts would like. At points, it has worked out incredibly well — the Dodgers ripped off 33 consecutive scoreless innings between the end of the NLDS and the start of the NLCS, tying a postseason record. But yesterday’s Game 2 revealed the downside of relying on Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and a bevy of backup options. The designed bullpen game went off the rails early, as the Mets put up six runs in the first two innings and cruised for the remainder of the contest.

Out of necessity, the Dodgers have thrust pitchers like Casparius into the spotlight. According to RosterResource, the Dodgers currently have seven starting pitchers on the injured list, including Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May. That list does not include Bobby Miller, who was slated to be a big part of the rotation in April but was demoted to Oklahoma City in September after struggling with various maladies all year. It doesn’t include Shohei Ohtani, who is still rehabbing from elbow surgery. And it doesn’t include Alex Vesia, Michael Grove, Joe Kelly, or Brusdar Graterol, all off the postseason roster due to injuries suffered in the last few weeks. Read the rest of this entry »


Rodón Rolls: Guardians Swing and Miss (Repeatedly) in ALCS Game 1 Loss

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This is the Carlos Rodón the Yankees thought they were getting. When Brian Cashman inked the lefty to a six-year, $162-million contract in December 2022, Rodón was coming off a two-season stretch in which he’d gone 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2021 to 2022, his 11.2 WAR ranked the third among all pitchers. But, like Samson of old, Rodón’s strength deserted him when his beard fell victim to the Yankees’ facial-hair policy. A forearm strain and a hamstring issue limited him to 14 starts in 2023, and when he did take the hill, he ran an unsightly 6.85 ERA. He was better this season, but he was by no means the ace the Bronx faithful were expecting.

That guy finally showed up on Monday night. Rodón powered the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, going six dominant innings and allowing one earned run on a solo homer. He blew his fastball by the Guardians and tempted them over and over again into chasing his slider as it burrowed into the dirt. Read the rest of this entry »


Gotta Hit the Easy Ones: Mets Outmuscle Dodgers to Even NLCS

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The magic of baseball is that every pitch counts and no game is ever truly over. There’s no victory formation, no garbage time with two minutes left in a 30-point blowout. If you have outs left, you can string together hits ad nauseam and win the game. But while that’s technically true, the game doesn’t really work that way in practice. Most games boil down to a few key moments, where the stakes are heightened and the outcome is truly uncertain. Win those moments, and you generally win the game.

In Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, there were three such moments. You could use leverage index to tell you that. You could also just watch the game and count when there were a lot of runners on. The Mets won 7-3 to even the series at one game each, but if those three moments had broken differently, the game could have too.

The first inflection point in the game came early. The Dodgers went with a modified version of their plan from last Wednesday: a Ryan Brasier-fronted bullpen game. Landon Knack came in for the second inning this time, which makes sense to me as an armchair manager. The Dodgers were going to need at least one less-trusted reliever to throw, because Alex Vesia got hurt in Game 5 of the NLDS and was left off the roster for this series, and Daniel Hudson apparently wasn’t even available on Monday. Why not get Knack in early, against the bottom half of the Mets lineup, and see whether he had it or not? A scoreless outing would set the Dodgers up to aim high-leverage options at the top of the New York order the rest of the day. A bad outing? They could pull the ripcord and keep everyone fresh. Better to find that out in the second inning than the seventh.
Read the rest of this entry »


The 2025 RosterResource Payroll Pages Are Live!

RosterResource doesn’t stop for anything, not even great postseason play. We’ve already begun to roll out the team Depth Charts for 2025, with more set to go live in the coming days. Our Free Agent Tracker launched earlier this month. And now, the 2025 Payroll Pages are here!

The Payroll Pages will default to the 2025 view after the World Series, but for now, clicking over from a team page will take you to 2024. To view the 2025 page, simply change the Season toggle:

In case you’re new to the Payroll Pages, let’s go over what you can find on them. Read the rest of this entry »


American League Championship Series Preview: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

David Richard and Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

We’re now down to our final two teams in the American League, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, who will hash things out in the best-of-seven ALCS starting Monday in the Bronx. Baseball, like most sports, is at it’s peak for fun when there’s something to prove and a little bit of competitive vengeance worked into the mix.

It’s now been 15 years since the Yankees last won the World Series. Unlike their last long championship drought, during their mediocre 1980s and early ’90s, the Bombers have mostly been good since their 2009 title. They’ve made the postseason 10 times in that span and have played in five Championship Series (though they’ve failed to advance each time). Yes, the franchise that was once accused of destroying baseball because it was winning too many championships now draws scrutiny for lately having won too few. There are a lot of reasons for the organization’s relative lack of success lately, but many fans point to a mysterious blend of Brian Cashman, too much analytics, not enough bunting, and Aaron Boone, who at various points has been accused of being the worst manager to have ever existed. Until the 11th time’s the charm for the Yankees, nobody’s going to fear Mystique and Aura.

If the Yankees face a drought, the Guardians are dealing with one of Joadian proportions. Where the Yankees were emblematic as the big evil franchise, the theme among Cleveland baseball for a long time was ineptitude. When they filmed the movie Major League, there was little controversy as to which franchise would play the doormat protagonists. At least the Cubs were considered losers of the lovable ilk. The last 30 years represent the most successful epoch for Cleveland baseball, but the franchise is still lacking a World Series trophy during that span. The last time Cleveland won it all, in 1948, neither of my parents were even born yet, and I’m a man approaching 50 at a distressingly rapid rate. In three of its last four playoff appearances, Cleveland met its demise courtesy of the Yankees. So, of course, the Guardians’ path to the World Series runs through New York; eliminating the Yankees surely would elicit an extra dose of satisfaction.

But who will come out on top? I usually start with the ZiPS projections, because it would be an awfully strange approach to not use the projection system I have on my PC.

ZiPS Game-by-Game Probabilities – ALCS
Team Gm 1 Gm 2 Gm 3 Gm 4 Gm 5 Gm 6 Gm 7
Yankees SP Rodón Cole Schmidt Gil Rodón Cole Schmidt
Guardians SP Cobb Bibee Boyd Williams Cobb Bibee Boyd
Yankees Odds 52.4% 54.9% 46.4% 48.8% 51.5% 54.9% 52.5%
Guardians Odds 47.6% 45.1% 53.6% 51.2% 48.5% 45.1% 47.5%
ZiPS ALCS Probabilities
Team Win in Four Win in Five Win in Six Win in Seven Victory
Yankees 6.5% 13.2% 17.4% 16.4% 53.5%
Guardians 5.9% 11.8% 13.9% 14.9% 46.5%

There will no doubt be some shifting as the series progresses, but I don’t think ZiPS would have a change in the basic story: These teams are fairly well-matched. All seven projected games stay within that 55/45 split, so it would be tough to call anyone a significant underdog. ZiPS is going a bit against the grain here; it was one of the outliers in liking the Guardians in the preseason.

So, where are the imbalances in this matchup?

The Yankees have the edge on offense because of their talent at the top of their lineup. Yes, José Ramírez is my pick for the most underrated player of this generation, someone who should be seen as a probable Hall of Famer despite rarely getting anywhere near the commensurate attention nationally. But he’s the Guardians’ only elite offensive talent, and we’re putting him up against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at their peaks, which is a whole different tier of awesomeness. Looking at the Judge/Soto projections vs. Cleveland’s pitching makes clear just how perilous that portion of the Yankees lineup is going to be for the Guardians.

ZiPS Batters vs. Pitchers, Judge/Soto vs. Guardians
Batter Pitcher BA OBP SLG
Aaron Judge Emmanuel Clase .235 .316 .402
Aaron Judge Gavin Williams .245 .361 .492
Aaron Judge Cade Smith .250 .382 .511
Aaron Judge Alex Cobb .288 .389 .524
Aaron Judge Tanner Bibee .263 .366 .552
Aaron Judge Eli Morgan .265 .383 .545
Aaron Judge Hunter Gaddis .270 .382 .562
Aaron Judge Matthew Boyd .289 .408 .651
Aaron Judge Tim Herrin .291 .462 .607
Batter Pitcher BA OBP SLG
Juan Soto Matthew Boyd .231 .335 .367
Juan Soto Emmanuel Clase .245 .352 .440
Juan Soto Tim Herrin .235 .399 .409
Juan Soto Cade Smith .244 .434 .470
Juan Soto Tanner Bibee .280 .414 .536
Juan Soto Eli Morgan .292 .414 .555
Juan Soto Alex Cobb .299 .454 .518
Juan Soto Hunter Gaddis .306 .468 .605
Juan Soto Gavin Williams .319 .511 .613

ZiPS thinks enough of Emmanuel Clase to make Judge mortal and thinks Matthew Boyd is just a good enough starter with a lefty split to stymie Soto a skosh. But you can’t avoid these two, and the Guardians don’t have any comparable sources of terror in their lineup. There’s a part of me that wonders if every team should use a solid reliever as an opener against the Yankees if it has a deep enough bullpen, simply because of the certainty of facing Judge and Soto in the first inning.

The drop-off after Judge and Soto is tremendous, however. Of the remaining seven hitters, ZiPS expects Gleyber Torres to have the highest on-base percentage (.335) and Giancarlo Stanton to be the only one with a slugging percentage above .450 (.462) against Cleveland’s lefty pitchers. Against righties, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the highest projected OBP (.326) and SLG (.443) in the non-Judge/Soto department.

This gives the Guardians some interesting tactical possibilities using their bullpen. With the Yankees having two players with an unusually large proportion of their offensive firepower, it should be a bit easier for the Guards to sprinkle in lesser relievers based on just where they are in the lineup.

The difference between the rotations aren’t as large as one might think. While ZiPS thinks the Guardians have one of the weaker rotations in the playoffs this year, after Gerrit Cole – the best projected starter on either team – the Yankees aren’t all that frightening either. Carlos Rodón has the next best projection, but the Guardians have had a notable platoon split that favors matchups against lefties this season. Luis Gil is having a great rookie season and ought to appear prominently on most AL Rookie of the Year ballots, but ZiPS still sees him as a guy with an expected ERA someone around four, with Clarke Schmidt faring slightly worse.

Cleveland’s rotation finished 2024 with a 4.40 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, both toward the bottom of baseball. But the rotation isn’t that bad, simply because it has largely eliminated most of the sources of this lousiness. None of Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, or Logan Allen will face off against the Yankees this upcoming week. When looking at the four starters most likely to get starts for the Guardians, ZiPS sees Gavin Williams as the one with the highest projected ERA (4.17). ZiPS is less enamored with emergency options like Ben Lively and Joey Cantillo, but still has both of them on the sunny side of a 4.50 ERA/FIP. Cleveland’s starters don’t have a lot of pizazz, but like the breadsticks at Olive Garden, they’re serviceable and there’s a lot of them. Because they Guardians have a deep rotation, they don’t need to cobble together bullpen games just to survive, which allows manager Stephen Vogt to comfortably utilize the best projected bullpen in baseball right now in the highest-leverage situations.

For the Dodgers-Padres NLDS preview, I ran a simulation for how the probability changed if both teams had a game in which the starting pitcher got knocked out after two innings and the teams played one 15-inning game. In that one, the Padres gained five percentage points in the projection based on this scenario. The Guardians, meanwhile, gain 10 percentage points if we use the same two hypothetical events, going from slight underdogs at 47% to a mildly comfortable favorite at 57%!

Cleveland’s other advantage is having the better bench. The Guardians have myriad platoon options — David Fry or Jhonkensy Noel against lefties or Will Brennan and Kyle Manzardo against righties — and being able to deploy them for the right matchups is a small but real bit of value. Combine bench and bullpen and ZiPS thinks the Guardians have the edge in one-run games by a 54%-46% margin and a 52%-48% edge in games decided by two runs. Blowouts are most likely to go in the Yankees’ favor, but in those hard-fought close contests, the Yankees are slight underdogs.

The Yankees or Guardians will not face a juggernaut in the World Series if they make it through the ALCS. The Mets have some significant team weaknesses, and injuries have resulted in the Dodgers’ being kept together with a roll of duct tape. Whichever team wins these next (up to) seven games has a good chance of finally ending its title drought.


Luis Tiant (1940-2024), the Cuban Dervish

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Even in an era brimming with colorful characters and exceptional hurlers, Luis Tiant stood out. The barrel-chested, mustachioed Cuban righty combined an assortment of exaggerated deliveries with a variety of arm angles and speeds that baffled hitters — and tantalized writers — over the course of a 19-year major league career (1964–82) and an affiliation with the game in one capacity or another that extended through the remainder of his life. “The Cuban Dervish,” as Sports Illustrated’s Ron Fimrite christened him in 1975, died last Tuesday at the age of 83. No cause of death was announced.

The son of a legendary left-hander colloquially known as Luis Tiant Sr., the younger Tiant was exiled from his home country in the wake of Cuban prime minister Fidel Castro’s travel restrictions, and separated from his family for 14 years. Against that backdrop of isolation, “El Tiante” went on to become the winningest Cuban-born pitcher in major league history, and to emerge as a larger-than-life character, so inseparable from his trademark cigars that he chomped them even in postgame showers. He spoke softly in a thick accent, but that didn’t prevent his wit and wisdom from getting across, particularly during the latter half of his career, after he emerged from a serious arm injury to become a top big-game pitcher. “In boots, black cap, foot-long cigar and nothing else, he’d hold court with half-hour monologues Richard Pryor would envy,” wrote Thomas Boswell in 1988.

Tiant’s ascendence to iconic status centered around his 1971–78 run with the Red Sox, reaching its pinnacle in their seven-game 1975 World Series defeat, during which he made three starts: a brilliant Game 1 shutout; a gritty Game 4 complete game during which he delivered “163 pitches in 100 ways,” to use the description of Sports Illustrated‘s Roy Blount Jr.; and a valiant, draining Game 6 effort where he faltered late but was saved by Carlton Fisk’s famous body-English home run around Fenway Park’s left field foul pole in the 12th inning. Read the rest of this entry »


Flaherty Twirls A Gem: Dodgers Grab Game 1 of the NLCS

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

LOS ANGELES — There was a glint in the eye of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Asked in the pregame press conference if his Game 1 starter, Jack Flaherty, would be making any adjustments after an unsteady start against the Padres in the NLDS, Roberts vamped for a bit before a grin broke across his face.

“I just feel he’s built for moments like this,” Roberts said. “I think the pulse, the stuff. I really feel a good one out of Jack tonight.”

Whether it was a premonition, insider knowledge, or — in the style of his fellow Angelenos — belief in his power to manifest reality, Roberts got exactly what he expected. Flaherty carried the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday night, shutting out the Mets for seven innings en route to a casual 9-0 victory and an early series lead.

The right-hander, acquired from Detroit in a trade deadline deal, was in control all night. He allowed two walks and two singles but otherwise held the Mets at bay, striking out six and holding New York to an .233 expected batting average. It felt like the Mets couldn’t figure out whether to sit on Flaherty’s loopy knuckle curve or his firmer gyro slider. Stuck between these two distinct breaking balls, the Mets flailed around, swinging through his breakers, lifting them for harmless fly balls, or — on the rare occasions when they squared him up — sending them straight into the gloves of the Dodgers defense. To right-handed hitters, Flaherty threw a near-identical number of curves and sliders, making it difficult to key in on a specific pitch type. Read the rest of this entry »