After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

It may be the world’s most depressing bounce-back season, but Eric Hosmer’s .262/.320/.425, 1.1 WAR projection would be his best season so far in San Diego. It’s shocking there are still six seasons left on Hosmer’s deal, short of an ill-advised opt-out after year five. Hosmer’s contract creates an awkward situation for the Padres, in that he represents the starting player most in need of an upgrade. Josh Naylor already projects to be as good a player and Ty France, projected at second, has a higher-projected OPS+. I actually held my breath to see if Aderlin Rodriguez, a minor league free agent who spent 2019 in El Paso, also projected to have a better bat (he didn’t).

Outside of Hosmer, there’s very little to complain about. Jurickson Profar had a weak 2019, but ran a BABIP nearly 20 points below the average pitcher’s, so ZiPS is highly skeptical that represents anything near a true ability. It would have seemed crazy to trade for Trent Grisham a year ago, but he was one of the players who most outperformed their projection, finally putting up a terrific minor league season (albeit in a supercharged offensive environment). Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a narrative you’ve probably heard this offseason: free agency is back because non-playoff teams are trying to make a splash. On its face, it makes a lot of sense; the Angels, White Sox, Rangers, Reds, and Diamondbacks have all made meaningful additions to their rosters this year. Star players are headed to non-playoff teams, hoping to tip the scales of 2020 in their favor.

And yet, that narrative leaves out some inconvenient truths. Of the top three free agents this offseason in our Top 50, two signed with playoff teams. Sixteen free agents who were worth 2 or more WAR last year have signed so far; of those 16, 10 are headed to teams who played in October this year.

Only last year, all three of the top free agents (Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Patrick Corbin) signed with teams who hadn’t made the playoffs the previous year. Is the 2019-2020 offseason truly the year of non-playoff teams getting fancy, or are we merely falling victim to narrative? Read the rest of this entry »

Gerrit Cole just signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees that ranks as one of the biggest in the game’s history. To compare contracts, however, some context is required. In the strictest sense, Cole’s deal is the second-largest in free agent history, behind only Bryce Harper’s $330 million last season. It’s the fourth-largest contract in baseball history, with Mike Trout’s contract extension earlier this year and Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million deal back in 2015 joining Harper’s ahead of it. In dollars, it is ahead of Alex Rodriguez’s $252 million contract in 2001, as well as his $275 million deal from 2008. But the game’s finances have changed a lot since 2001, when the average major league payroll was just $67 million. Payrolls have increased by two-and-a-half times that amount, with league revenues growing even more than payrolls. So how does Cole’s deal really stack up? We can use payroll information to put Cole’s contract alongside Alex Rodriguez’s, and more evenly compare them.

About a year ago, I attempted to put Alex Rodriguez’s contracts in present-day payroll terms by adjusting them to 2019 dollars based on the average team’s payroll each season. Since that post, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado have all signed large deals; I added them to the list in this post. After Mike Trout signed his extension, I updated the post again. In light of Gerrit Cole’s signing, another update is necessary. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the world champion Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Younger Potential Helium Types
Pablo Aldonis, LHP
Viandel Pena, 2B
Junior Martina, SS
Yoander Rivero, SS
Daniel Marte, CF
Todd Peterson, RHP
Justin Connell, RF
Leandro Miliani, RF
Mirton Blanco, RHP

We’ll try to plow through these pretty quickly as this system has more of this tier of prospect than most clubs. Aldonis turns 18 in March. He’s a medium-framed, 6-foot-1, 55 athlete with a smooth delivery and advanced feel for three pitches. He’s a long-term physical projection sleeper. Pena is a stocky switch-hitter with bat-to-ball skills and he hit .360 in the GCL last year. He’s a 50 runner and infield defender who’s about 5-foot-7. It’s softer contact right now, but the barrel feel is there. Martina is a native of Curaçao and a 19th rounder out of Western Oklahoma St who crushed the GCL after the draft. He takes big hacks and could be a power-over-hit middle infield utility type. Rivero is an 18-year-old, glove-first shortstop. Peterson pitched in relief at LSU and would sit 92-94 with a 55 cutter/slider and curveball at times. Washington tried him in a rotation last summer. Connell and Miliani are bat-to-ball 1B/LF sorts; they have promising contact skills but probably need to end up with premium hit tools to profile. Blanco is a 17-year-old who has been up to 98 but he’s very wild.

Major League Ready Depth
Kyle Finnegan, RHP
Ben Braymer, LHP
Yadiel Hernandez, 1B/OF
Jordan Mills, LHP
Steven Fuentes, RHP
Andrew Lee, RHP
Nick Raquet, LHP
Tres Barrera, C
Nick Banks, OF
Jacob Condra-Bogan, RHP

Finnegan was a high-priority minor league free agent whose stuff was up late in the year, and has been strong in the Dominican Winter League. He’s in the mid-90s with an average slider and split. Braymer is also on the 40-man and looks like a lefty pitchability swingman with a 55 breaking ball. Hernandez is a weird one. He signed out of Mexico at age 29 and is now 32, but he rakes (it’s hit over power due to lack of launch, but the contact is very hard) and because of when he signed, he acts as upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot this year, so he has sneaky trade value. Jordan Mills sits upper-80s with sink, his changeup is plus, and his slider above average. Fuentes has reached Double-A and has a tailing low-90s fastball and above average changeup. Lee and Raquet are overhand four-seam, curveball relief types. Barrera is on the 40-man right now and is a well-rounded third catcher. Banks has several above average tools (speed underway, raw power, arm strength) but the bat is below. Condra-Bogan is significant because he’s the only player on this whole list who arrived by trade (he came back from Kansas City in the Brian Goodwin deal), as everyone else was drafted or signed by Washington. JCB touches 100; he’s still working on a breaking ball.

A Complete Mess of Other Guys
Jake Irvin, RHP
Fausto Segura, RHP
Jakson Reetz, C
Orlando Ribalta, RHP
J.T. Arruda, SS
Jhonatan German, LHP
Gage Canning, CF
Alex Troop, LHP
Felix Taveras, RHP

Several of these guys signed late out of Latin America, around age 21. Segura (23, NYPL) has a chuck-it-past-you fastball up to 98, German (24, Double-A) has a mid-90s sinker, and Taveras (24, GCL) has been hurt for most of the past three years but was up to 97 with 2500 rpm on the heater. Irvin was up last spring, down last summer, then up again during instructs, where he pitched in relief. He’s 6-foot-6 and sits 93-96 when things are right with an average curveball. Reetz is another athletic, late-bloomer type who makes consistent hard contact; he’s probably a depth catcher. Ribalta is a big-bodied fastball/curveball relief prospect who was up to at least 96 at Miami Dade College the summer after the draft. Arruda was a sophomore-eligible 11th rounder. He’s a lefty-bat infielder with good feel to hit. Troop is a lanky, over-the-top lefty whose fastball has carry.

System Overview

This system is not very good for very good reasons. Prospects have either been traded away (Elvis Alvarado, Jesus Luzardo, Yohanse Morel, Kelvin Gutierrez, Daniel Johnson, Taylor Hearn, Sheldon Neuse, Dane Dunning) or they’ve graduated (Juan Soto, Victor Robles), and several draft picks have been lost as compensation for free agents because the Nats have been busy winning. And so the list above includes just one player who wasn’t originally signed or drafted by Washington; they haven’t been in prospect acquisition mode for a long time.

Once Carter Kieboom graduates off the list, would you rather have this entire system or the Vanderbilt Commodores? It’s probably pretty close.

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Scott Boras’s mystifying goose metaphor and then, in the second installment of a three-part series, discuss stories that they overlooked about 10 more teams in 2019, touching on a Fernando Tatis Jr. fun fact and BABIP extremes, Ian Kinsler cursing, JD Hammer, Scott Kingery, and a Phillie Phanatic dispute, Mitch Keller and another kind of extreme BABIP, the Reds’ first-inning scoring, their double double-header, and Derek Dietrich, Tim Melville, Matt Harvey, Cy Sneed and Cy stats, Mark Canha, Matt Shoemaker, Jordan Luplow and James Karinchak, and other players, fun facts, and statistical oddities that deserve a longer look.

Audio intro: Parliament, "The Goose"
Audio outro: John Lennon, "I Found Out"

Link to Andy’s Boras article
Link to Kinsler cursing video
Link to Kinsler cursing comments
Link to Phanatic story
Link to pitcher BABIP leaderboard
Link to doubleheaders story
Link to Melville story
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Over the last week or so, several players who had been playing pro ball in Korea or Japan (some originally from those countries, others former big leaguers kicking back to the States) have signed contracts with major league clubs. I had notes on several of them in our Top 50 Free Agents post, but wanted to talk about them at greater length now that we know their employers and the details of their contracts.

LF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Tampa Bay Rays
(Two years, $12 million, $2.4 million posting fee)

Tsutsugo’s deal came in a bit beneath what Kiley predicted on the Top 50 Free Agents post (Kiley had two years at $8 million per), where we ranked him No. 42 in the class, but multiple public reports have confirmed that Tsutsugo had more lucrative offers from other teams and chose to sign with Tampa Bay because of comfort with the org.

In addition to regular DH duty, Tsutsugo seems like an obvious platoon partner for Hunter Renfroe in one of the two corner outfield spots. The Rays have indicated he’ll see some time at third and first base, positions he hasn’t played regularly since 2014, and the notes I have from pro/international scouts and executives indicate he’s not athletically capable of playing there, though there’s no harm in seeing whether or not that’s true during spring training. Yandy Díaz isn’t good at the hot corner (he used to be, but he’s just too big and stiff now), but still played third situationally, so perhaps Tsutsugo can be hidden there, even if it’s for a few innings at a time. Read the rest of this entry »

The last time Eric Sogard was on the Brewers, he was bad. Not just run of the mill bad, but really bad! He hit .134/.241/.165 in 113 plate appearances for them in 2018, good for a 14 wRC+. That was all the team needed to see to send him to Triple-A Colorado Springs — where he hit .225/.297/.270 at altitude. So it was hardly surprising when they parted ways, with Milwaukee opening up playing time for their packed infield and Sogard seeking an easier path to the majors in Toronto.

What a difference a year makes. Sogard was excellent in 2019 over 442 plate appearances with the Blue Jays and the Rays. He hit 13 home runs, more than he’d previously hit in his 1800 career plate appearances. He slashed his strikeout rate, put a few more balls in the air, and was handsomely rewarded; not only were the homers a career high, but he hit 23 doubles and two triples as well, leading to easily his best single-season production. A .316 BABIP didn’t hurt, either — in all, he produced a 115 wRC+ on the year.

There were reasons to be skeptical, of course. Those home runs were largely of the “hey, that got out?” variety. The average home run in baseball last year was hit at 103.5 mph. Sogard’s baker’s dozen dingers averaged 96.7 mph. If you’re more of an xwOBA person, combining angle and speed, his home runs had an expected wOBA of .701. The league average was a robust 1.359, and among players with five or more home runs, only Sandy León had worse expected results on homers.

In fact, if you want to be skeptical, you could say that Sogard didn’t even have a particularly impressive 2019 despite the surface numbers. His overall wOBA of .346 was excellent, but it vastly outstripped his xwOBA of .307, driven largely by his home run luck. None of this is surprising or hard to tease out from watching him play; he simply doesn’t hit the ball that hard, and even though lots of players ran into some extra home runs in 2019, Sogard really ran into some extra home runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey, look at the Phillies! They’ve been busy! Again! Following their earlier signing of Zack Wheeler, they’ve signed Didi Gregorious to a one-year, $14 million deal, reuniting him with Joe Girardi and planting him at shortstop, a position where he’s generated plenty of value throughout his career. This acquisition bumps current Phillies shortstop Jean Segura over to second base where he, too, has been historically successful; he was worth 5.0 wins for the Diamondbacks there in 2016. Scott Kingery will be hovering somewhere around the Phillies infield too, and Rhys Hoskins will be at first. Not the worst group in baseball! But a certainly a different arrangement than the Phillies had last year. And the year before that. And the year before that.

The Phillies have been rebuilding, depending on who you talk to, since anytime between 2012 and 2015. The real question now is, when did it end? Did it end? Is a rebuild over when all the pieces are there, but the wins aren’t? Or do they have to win the World Series to complete it? Was it over before, and these are all adjustments? Wait, who is playing third base? And what is Scott Kingery’s job?

This sort of ambiguity has been a component of the Phillies’ infield for years. Two positions have cycled through three different starters in the last three seasons (first base, shortstop); the other two have been occupied by the same starters for the last three years (second base, third base). But both of those players were just non-tendered: the Phillies got some production out of César Hernández at second and at the top of their lineup during some lean years, and Maikel Franco melted from a top slugging prospect into a pool of negative WAR over the course of four full(-ish) seasons at third. Their departures don’t make the Phillies worse, but they do create another situation that makes you continue to wonder, “… what is going on?” Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Archer was bad in 2019. In fact, he was as bad as he’d ever been, posting his lowest WAR total and the worst FIP, ERA, walk rate, and HR/FB rate of his career. The performance has made the trade that sent him to the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Tampa Bay Rays look like a complete abomination.

Yet he shouldn’t have to walk the plank just yet.

For Archer, who turned 31 at the end of September, it’s something of a long shot that he’ll be able to return to being the pitcher he was during his heyday with the Rays. As you can see, what was once a good arsenal has devolved into a group of mediocre, if not weak, pitches:

The most significant dip for Archer came in the effectiveness of his two-seam fastball. The pitch worked well for him earlier in the decade, and after removing it from his arsenal in 2015, he brought it back three seasons later. Archer’s “new” two-seamer, which hasn’t been good (especially in 2019), was used sparingly against both left- and right-handed hitters. Read the rest of this entry »