2026 Top 100 Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello everyone, hope you had a nice weekend and enjoyed some combo of college baseball, the Olympics, and NBA All Star stuff (or non-sports delights) as I certainly did.

Eric A Longenhagen: The top 100 was published today! Brendan and I are here to talk about it with you, as well as whatever else might be on your mind.

Eric A Longenhagen: It can be procedural stuff, questions specific to players, your dynasty roster, whatever. We know a lot of you may be stopping by for the first time today because the Top 100 list brought you here. Thanks for coming, please look around and make yourself at home.

Guest: how close is Jojo Parker to being on the list?

Brendan Gawlowski: Parker was very close, Eric and I went back and forth on it while I was doing the Toronto list. At the end of the day, we didn’t have anything new on him to bump him from the post-draft updates. Good reminder that the gap between player 90 and player 135 is tiny.

Eric A Longenhagen: Parker’s good, probably a little less projectable than most of the same-age infielders who made the list.

Eric A Longenhagen: And the guys for whom that’s not true (Level, off hand) they have a pro track record

Oaktown Blues: Is it safe to say that Griffin would go #1 in a 2024 re-draft, even though he hasn’t shown what he can do in the majors like Kurtz, Burns, and Yesavage have?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I think the impact of a do-everything up-the-middle player like that over a long period of time demands prioritization over the rest of that group, though they’re great. It was justifiable Griffin went where he did at the time (I thought so, anyway) given the Schrödinger’s Shortstop piece of it, but Pittsburgh had a winning lotto ticket here, this is Trout/Tony Sanchez spiritual cleansing.

Go mets: how close was jonathan santucci to making the list? he a pick to click this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another who was very close — one of the very last cuts.

Brendan Gawlowski: Like the changes he’s made with his delivery, want to see a better third pitch

Eric A Longenhagen: Toward the end of the work, we had a handful of guys firmly on the bubble who we talked through and had mix of yes and no for inclusion, he was one of them.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wei-En Lin was another. Winston Santos

RAY from Tampa: Thoughts on TJ NIcohls and Ty Johnson 45’s ???

Eric A Longenhagen: We like them both. Johnson’s slider has performed like an elite pitch. Mechanically and athletically, he looks like a reliever to us, and he’s only working with two pitches. Nichols was in the mix for the list, way more strikes than I projected coming out of U of A. Secondary stuff just a little light compared to the group we included

Brendan Gawlowski: Nichols another who was on the bubble until near the end.

Dynasty Dispersal Draft: In BG’s article from the other day, he joked about how the Pirates didn’t trade Skenes for his bad eval guy Richy Valdez. But if you put such a glowing grade on a guy like that on the complex, wouldn’t the scouting department take notice and send a crosschecker?

Brendan Gawlowski: Even though B2 is roughly equivalent to our 50, the way scouting departments usually work winds up meaning that while we only have 70 B2’s or so here, a team might have 250+ players with that grade. So, Valdez was definitely flagged, but it didn’t set off a mad scramble or anything

Guest: How close were Royals pitchers Kendry Chourio (sp?) and David Shielfds?

Brendan Gawlowski: Chourio we were split on, one of us wanted him on, the other made a compelling case to pump the brakes. Shields we like but we need to see a guy throwing 90 make this work against better hitters before we 50 him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I was the one who said no. 6ft 170 pound tenage with violent mechanics and sketchy fastball angle/movement? Been here too many times.

Scott: On the team lists, should we interpret the byline as designating who writes the blurbs based on scouting evaluations collected from everyone? Or does it indicate who has done the lion’s share of scouting on that particular team? More generally, how do you guys structure your collaboration?

Eric A Longenhagen: The real answer is I/we are still feeling our way through how to do this with multiple people again. The person’s byline on a list is who wrote basically all of it. There might be situations where I wrote a blurb for the Yankees list and that guy gets traded to a team whose list Brendan wrote, and how/whether we indicate to readers that’s the case might evolve. If one of us wrote a list individually, the other has at least cross checked all the 40+ guys

Karl Hungus: Who is the best prospect you guys have ever seen live?

Brendan Gawlowski: Bobby Witt was incredible

Eric A Longenhagen: the sound of the ball off Acuna’s bat scared some old people I was sitting next to at a Fall League game.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve saw Ohtani a bunch and Judge for six weeks in the AFL

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a legendary report in PIT’s system about Acuna where the scout basically stopped writing his report and instead started gushing about the guy. “I would buy a ticket to watch him play” is not standard scouting vernacular but it got the point across…

GA Blood: Spencer Jones seems to be the poster child for hit tool risk suppressing a player’s long-term outlook. What elevates Ethan Holliday over that type of profile?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only the hope that his contact rate was *that bad* because it was a small sample. It was 73% on the showcase circuit if I recall (which is 45-grade big league contact rate if it holds up).

Efrim: Surprised that Cam Caminiti will remain a 45+(guessing). What is keeping him from a 50 FV grade and Top 100.

Brendan Gawlowski: Lot of Caminiti questions. Another who was close. Want to see a more consistent change and want to see him hold his stuff in longer outings.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a lot easier to buy a guy’s stuff if he’s able to do it over 5-6 innings than 3-4. Not a Caminiti comment specifically, that applies everywhere.

Matt: What does AJ Ewing need to do to make the top-100 next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: We like Ewing, smaller, speedy guy who makes contact and plays good defense. Sal Frelick type? Most of the CFs who I’d consider to be 50s across any kind of multi-year window are hitting for some power.

Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Leaderboards – 2019 to 2025 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Brendan Gawlowski: Nelson Rada falls in this bucket too.

Eric A Longenhagen: And Enrique Bradfield

Eric A Longenhagen: 45

Brendan Gawlowski: And I had a source who preferred Rada when I put him and Ewing together

Cool Lester Smooth: How much of Lombard’s drop from 55 to 50 is driven by the drop in production after his aggressive promotion and how much by holes in his approach/swing that AA exposed?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another thing with Lombard is that his measurable power was only a 45 last year. So, in addition to the things that you mentioned, we don’t really see plus power in play.

Roy Hobbs: Where would Imai rank?

Where would Marcelo Mayer rank?

Eric A Longenhagen: Imai would be at the top of the 50s, Marcelo in the 55 tier mix with Emerson, Wetherholt. How he’d line up with that group exactly might vary based on how scared I am of his chase and body projection on any given day.

CraigB: Good list.  As a Pirates’ fan, I’m curious as to the previous 70 FV guys.  Rutschmann was one and he has not distinguished himself.

Brendan Gawlowski: Adley has two five-win seasons, two ASG appearances, a Silver Slugger, and 15 career WAR.

Roy Hobbs: Among the 45 or higher guys who are the top 5-10 Command Guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: Board Sort, baby. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Prospector: Asking about Gavin Fien and Nate George? Thoughs and FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not especially on either of them. Fien I wrote about in the analysis of the Gore trade, which I’ll link to in a sec. George is a nice player whose spray chart versus fastballs scares the crap out of me. All oppo-oriented, he’s long into the zone for a short-levered guy. Makes me worried he won’t be on time versus better velo.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cherry Blossom Seeds: Washington Eyes Rebirth with Five-Prospect Haul in Gore Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Ryan: This question is for Brendan- you came from the Pirates org, correct? I was wondering if you could provide your take on the Dbacks hiring of Jeremy Bleich? How do you think he will help the team’s pitching dev? Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: I worked briefly with Jeremy and found him smart, inquisitive, hard working, a good team player, and a person who goes the extra mile. AZ lucky to have him.

SCJH: Am I right or wrong to write highly touted int’l hitters off if they struggle in the DSL? I know breakouts happen but seems to me anyone who’s a good bet to hit MLB pitching eventually shouldn’t struggle against the Dominican equivalent of the showcase circuit.

Brendan Gawlowski: You have to be a little careful with DSL numbers, but the guys who just completely bomb that level, yeah, that’s generally a pretty big problem.

Guest: When does minor league spring training start, and if it has is there some noise about breakout guys on the backfields?

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys are already throwing/taking live BP and other field work that you can kinda go check out between college games at whatever facility. We might have to do Prospect Week a week earlier next year so I can just see as much baseball as humanly possible. March 9th I think are the first minor league spring games.

Eric A Longenhagen: Chase Shores looked great in live BP

Guest: What separates Nolan McLean from the Yesavage, White, Chandlers of the world to be a full grade higher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Feel for location.

bob: thanks as always for all the hard work! feels to me like this year’s top 100 is more pitcher-heavy throughout than it’s been in the past few years. has the meta shifted in your mind at all? is it just this particular crop of pitchers has more good prospects? am i just imagining this to begin with?

Brendan Gawlowski: One of the things that came up a lot when we were talking through the list was that this was a very strong group of pitchers, particularly rich in guys who had debuted but not lost eligibility. Risky demo but the list needs to reflect that this is a good year for arms.

Sam: Can we get a little more color from you guys on the Chourio disagreement? Fascinated by how varied his evals have been, from borderline top 50 to way off top 100.

Brendan Gawlowski: Chourio is incredibly advanced for a pitcher his age — feel for location, consistency of his secondaries, velo, etc. He’s also not a big guy and it’s fair to worry about durability. I’ll let Eric add more if he likes but it’s very normal for evaluators to have this kind of split on a player.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re just writing the Daylight Guys piece in this chat.

Oaktown Blues: If I’m remembering correctly, LDV was graded a 50 FV prior to being traded. Which factor(s) drove his rise to a 60 FV? Power output? More confidence he’s a SS? Both?

Eric A Longenhagen: We definitely had increased confidence about his shortstop fit as a group compared my individual report from the time of the trade. Exactly how big is this guy going to be in his mid-20s? There definitely a version of it where he’s built more like Ketel than like Gunnar, Witt, etc. He’s so young, the variance on it is still so high. But if that’s what happens, well he might have 70 power. That’d be okay. He’s good.

GB: Where would Cam Schlittler rank if he was still prospect eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the 60 FV tier.

Elian Pena: Any Elian Pena love for the Mets?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes, one of the 3-4 DSL names in serious discussion for the list.

Brendan Gawlowski: Dorian Soto, Kevin Alvarez the others who came up as late as last night

Eric A Longenhagen: If we 40+ (or better) a DSL guy, we want you to pay attention to him.

Eric A Longenhagen: If we have a 40+ or a high 40 on a player, we like him.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are more than 109 good prospects

Woody: Just curious if y’all have any nuggets to share on Roldy Brito. Have heard a little buzz, but this is all us Rockies fans have to get excited about, so his inclusion was a pleasant surprise!

Brendan Gawlowski: He was my favorite player to scout. He’s toolsy, he plays hard, he’s versatile. I love him. Want to see the contact rate tick up, think he has it in him to do so.

Steve: How close did Yorger Bautista get to the Top 100?  He was hyped at this time last year but seems to have fallen significantly, I assume because the hit tool was not where it needs to be.

Brendan Gawlowski: See Eric’s answer about 40+ DSL guys above.

Drew: So if Ryan Sloan takes a step forward in terms of workload, he’s a candidate for #1 overall next year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Candidate for No. 1 pitcher maybe…

Scott: Can you provide any insight on the difference in grades for Willits and Josuar Gonzalez? They’re similar ages with seemingly similar profiles and tools, to a certain extent. Is it the difference in quality of competition they have faced so far? Thanks for the great list!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Those two make sense as bedfellows who get paired together, yes. Josuar has a little less physical obvious projection. There are definitely ways for more compact athletes like him to hit for power (Lindor is the example) but Willits’ frame has more obvious room. He’s not Corey Seager or anything, but there’s a more powerful look to how his hands work and Josuar was expanding in a way that cost him damage when I saw him in the fall.

Kate: Does giving davalillo a 50 with a 45 fastball give you any pause?  How many good mlb starters are there with below avg fastballs?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes and we kicked that around with him. At the end of the day, he has a couple big secondaries and a well-rounded arsenal that should allow him to use the fastball as a complimentary piece. But it’s a risk — good question.

Eric A Longenhagen: 70 split/change. In the instances where guys with below average fastballs succeed in a no. 4 or better SP role (it happens) it’s often because there’s a 70 or 80 grade thing lurking.

Guest: Who are some names either on or off the top 100 who you think are most likely to make a major jump up the list by the end of the season

Eric A Longenhagen: Any of the young hitters ranked in the 40-50 range

Pat: Assuming Emmanuel Rodriguez drop off the list is a combo of his passivity & injury proneness?

Brendan Gawlowski: And inability to catch anything in the upper half of the zone. And some concerns about his defense in CF. It all just added up.

529: Now that we’ve had some time, what impact has the contraction of the minor leagues had on prospect development?

Brendan Gawlowski: There are a bunch. The most obvious is that it seems like it’s killing young hitters — perhaps Latin American ones especially — with raw hit tools. But it’s also a factor in why a bunch of really good players are moving so quickly. One fewer hurdle to clear. We could list a bunch of others.

Hazmat Corntail: For us dynasty leaguers who will finally get a crack at last year’s draft class (in addition to everyone else), where do you see the most value across positions in terms of ML-ready talent at this stage? Is there anyone from last year’s class that has a shorter apparent trajectory to the majors than the others?

Eric A Longenhagen: The pitchers who ended up in Boston; Kyson and Phillips, Bremner (duh), Jamie Arnold if the strikes come back (I really hope so, he’s a lot of fun), Gage Wood. College arms from teams who either have a track record of racing guys through the minors (Atlanta, Anaheim), or building/competitive clubs with an obvious need for pitching (Sacramento, maybe Arizona with Pat Forbes)

Brendan Gawlowski: If Kade Anderson only made 15 minor league starts, I wouldn’t be shocked

Marco: Surprised to see Yolfran and Celestin so high. What do you see in them that others might not? Or are you just not as discouraged by their lack of production to date?

Brendan Gawlowski: Extremely projectable athletes. The kind of players you give a lot of runway to.

Brendan Gawlowski: Yolfran in particular was a funny conversation because we both wanted to include him and both (or at least I) sorta thought the other person wouldn’t want to do it.

Scott: Eric, reading the “How’s my driving” piece, it seems like you risk overfitting the updated scouting reports to the singular eventual outcome. As an example, look at Victor Robles. He’s listed as a big miss (projected FV65, actual FV40+). But his rookie year produced 3 WAR, which naively proves that’s he was capable of being at least an FV55.

How were you supposed to know that they were going to deaden the ball? Or that COVID or bad coaching or whatever would disrupt his trajectory? To my mind, you can only own the error as yours if you either think his 2019 was a lucky fluke and not his real talent level at the time or if you think his later underperformance was due to his own bad choices and you should have picked up something suspect in his makeup. Neither of those explanations seem right, or complete, to me.

So my question is this: how do you reckon with a gap between verifiable ability and eventual results? And which of the two – ability or results – is it your job to predict?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re overfitting to a singular outcome. One year of performance as an indication of ceiling is fine, but it’s a much more singular outcome than what I’m doing, which is looking at a six-year window of production. A player’s grade should not be there peak season. Carlos Gomez wasn’t a 70 just because he had two huge seasons. 40+ describes exactly what Robles was during his pre-free agency years. Mostly performed like a below-average outfielder (40, below average) with two random peaks (+).

Guest: What kept Bubba Chandler from reaching the same grade as McLean? His last 3 starts were a level few pitchers can taste. 19/0 bb/k, 17% swstr, all 3 games below a .200 xwoba. Platoon neutral arsenal and hasn’t even found a slider yet.

Brendan Gawlowski: Edge to the guy who already found a slider, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: (nods emphatically)

Actually my own boss: Can you write a note to my boss, excusing my lack of attention today?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, I’ll trade you if you write Appelman an email explaining why the fangraphs youtube algo is now all Brian Entin.

Bustin makes me feel bad: Can you explain how a prospect with a 50% probability of being a bust ends up with a 50FV?

Brendan Gawlowski: The cold, mathematical reality of retroactive outcomes-based analysis collides with the hopeful optimism of scouting

T-Bone is the villain: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember you (Eric) saying you preferred Early to Tolle. Has that changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Early has a better chance to start because of how loose and athletic he is, but Tolle’s fastball is such an elite, dominant thing, and we ended up really caring about that.

Adenolith: I’ve always had it in my mind that sometimes players get called up too quickly and it ruins their development. Is that an actual thing? Is there a reason a player’s long-term outlook might be negatively impacted by an aggressive promotion even if they get sent back down?

Brendan Gawlowski: It can be a factor, particularly if they start developing bad habits to cope with the competition. Juan Flores turning into a swing-at-everything hitter is a mini example.

Lovelayingdown: Is there anyway to get the player linker back for the chats?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can put links in the transcript but not in the live chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, I guess we can paste links to the player pages in here as we talk. Is that something people want?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1b truther: only 3 (4 if you include lazaro) 1b on the list. is this a new inefficiency emerging? seems like we’ve gotten to a crazy place of teams undervaluing 1b, and overvaluing ss. is willits or arias really that much more valuable than ralphy?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of the guys on this list projected to other spots are going to wind up at 1B. Florentino, Condon, Liranzo all candidates right now. And then there’s going to be a surprise 1B from injury or need. looking at current 1B, Vlad, Busch, Contreras, etc. all were graded elsewhere and wound up at first.

DEF: Where would Walcott rank without the injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me: sandwiched between Benge and Duno.

Eric A Longenhagen: Think the upside/risk pieces are comparable to Duno, Walcott better proximity than him. Benge feels safer, even more proximate than Walcott pre-injury.

Jeff: What is more important to you when evaluating prospects, how high their ceiling is or the probability of them hitting their ceiling/floor?

Brendan Gawlowski: Depends on the player.

Brendan Gawlowski: To rank on a top 100, you need to have at least a 2-3 win ceiling, which most minor leaguers don’t have.

Mets Fan: Is Kyle Tucker a fair comparison for the best-case scenario of Carson Benge (above average at everything, not truly standout in any one tool) or is that being too optimistic?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not moved by the comp. Tucker has more power, Benge should stay in CF for a bit.

Chris: What do you think the new timeline for Didier Fuentes is? They seem to know they moved him too fast but assume development of third pitch is needed

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be up and down this year. We think he’ll establish himself as one of their five best guys and be a good part of their rotation for a while, but probably not in 2026. At some point we’ll look up and go “wow, Fuentes is this good and he’s only 24?”

Brendan Gawlowski: When a guy gets hit like Fuentes did last year, it’s far, far more encouraging to pull up the tape and find 2-3 actionable things that he can improve, rather than conclude ‘yeah, he sure got lit up, huh? Needs to pitch better…’ Better change, better arm side command and he’ll be fine.

Michael – FG since 2016: Nice mean joe Greene reference.    If you were betting which Pirates’ prospects is more likely to be their next #1 overall.   Hernandez or Florentino?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d die before a non-Jagr Penguin’s name gets mentioned in glowing fashion on our website. Sethy is the answer.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Darius Kasparitis has been mentioned at some point.

DC: Seem to have florentino lower ranked than other sites. How come?\

Brendan Gawlowski: If it helps, I have no idea where Florentino is ranked on other sites.

Eric A Longenhagen: Even if we did, we’d have to know more about why our peers/buds ranked them where they did in order to answer that question. I think we should all just look at our own test paper, differences in our conclusions make for a healthier ecosystem for readers, imo.

David: Mariners / Current Value clarity – How do Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes have the same current hit tool?

Brendan Gawlowski: Guys multiple levels away will have low present hit tools as a default but I probably should’ve 35’d Arroyo’s now that you mention it like that.

Jeff: One of the bigger surprises for me was Joshua Baez not making the top 110.  Is he someone that barely missed the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was not, I don’t think his swing is going to work. Looks good on the spreadsheet, though.

Dodgers Blue: This may have been asked in a prior chat with you guys and I apologize if I missed it – but I’m curious how McLean is listed here but Chase Burns is not.  Despite McLean throwing more innings (majors and minors), what caused Burns to graduate while McLean is still eligible here?

Brendan Gawlowski: Burns exhausted his rookie eligibility.

Eric A Longenhagen: Burns graduated on roster days

Mike: Reading the updated report on Roch, the description of him out of high school sounds a lot like where Billy Carlson coming into the draft. Obviously expecting Carlson’s bat to develop that much would be irresponsible, but are the raw tools/traits decently comparable?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Ghost of Wade Boggs: Which player(s) would you say have the smallest gap between their median outcome(s) and the 90th percentile outcome(s)?

Brendan Gawlowski: In the player universe? All the orgs. Of the guys on the top 100, Arias comes to mind.

EV: Christian Oppor has SP # ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: 3/4, chance for three plus pitches, wanna see him finish stronger out front

Eric A Longenhagen: On ceiling

Eric A Longenhagen: Real RP risk because of command, but still might have three pluses in that role

Central PHX: Any love for Wehiwa Aloy? Big tools!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, like him, don’t love the plate discipline

Eric A Longenhagen: Not enough for the hondo, he’s a good prospect

Roki Sasaki: You guys putting Yesavage on the list made me curious if you had any thoughts on Sasaki? Would he still be near the top if he had been ranked? I know he pitched a few more innings and started the season up, but probably didn’t have too much more work than Yesavage overall.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still stuff Roki, he’d be a 60.

David: As we get into Spring Training, are there any Individual players either of you are excited to get a look at in particular?

Brendan Gawlowski: “Every player I’ve put a positive grade on” is probably too broad, huh? Draft guys who didn’t play — Conrad, Slawinski — or projectable types who needed to grow — Robert Arias

Matt: No JoJo Parker or Jamie Arnold? What gives?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Arnold but he threw sub-60% fastball strikes last year, sub-50% zone rate, jus didn’t have feel for fastball command at all. I know he didn’t walk anyone, but college hitters are bad. Fastball command is the big thing to watch for from him this year. He’s a Pick to Click for me, but we’ve got guys on here who’ve thrown 120-140 innings at Double- and Triple-A, Arnold is more speculative.

Eric A Longenhagen: Parker we touched on earlier. We like him too.

Mas Datos, Por Favor: Do guys that didn’t exceed rookie eligibility but played well in the bigs like McLean maybe get a bump too high on their grade? I get he performed well but it was a small sample size and hitters will adjust.

Eric A Longenhagen: We like McLean that much

AA: How close was Cam Caminiti? He and Luke Sinnard were 45+ at your last eval of them, so I imagine they weren’t far off the 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct, like both guys a lot. I picked CamCam to click last year I think, changeup just didn’t get to a good enough place.

Jeff: If Ryan River was 2-3  years younger, would that change anything about his scouting report?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really, for me. Maybe I’d feel a little less urgency in my gut, but I’m mostly listening to my brain when writing these.

Josh: Which Diamondbacks prospect do you think has the biggest chance to jump up their list this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Someone in the Livingston/Hagaman/Ciprian/Forbes tier. In roughly that order

Re: Nats: How are you guys dividing your work? Do each of you cover half the league, or are you each covering everybody?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, we’re both on the whole pie. I don’t wanna do the thing where we ignore half of the player population for the sake in ease divying up the work that way. Brendan and I are full time employees who should know about as much of the player universe as we can without getting our families mad at us. Also it’s freaking fun.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m still playing catch up to some extent. I can do the entire system for some orgs, I don’t wanna say where I’d run out on the Nationals now. Part of the reason I signed up for Braves (either my next list or the one after) is to keep honing that global perspective.

Mike: With evaluations getting generally more accurate, is it less likely that someone like José Ramírez be looked over as much as he was as a prospect? Obviously there’s always going to be guys that blow up on account of changing their body etc in unexpected ways, but it seems like that sort of miss is more rare nowadays (though obviously a guy like that turning into a hof level player is extraordinarily rare anyway)

Brendan Gawlowski: I think there will always be surprises. Predicting the future is hard, the game is played by humans, etc.

Sirras: How different is prospect scouting vs big league/advance scouting?

Brendan Gawlowski: Advance scouting is breaking down what guys are doing right now and why; very different animal.

Matt: Hey guys, what does a prime Kevin Alcantara season look like? It seems he has a ton of variance between his 20th vs 80th percentile outcomes

Eric A Longenhagen: Like the good Drew Stubbs, Michael A Taylor seasons

NatsFan26: Why is Susana ranked so far ahead of Sykora. I know he has wipeout stuff and the injury history with Sykora is scary but he mowed down A ball and had a good short stint in AA before getting hurt

Brendan Gawlowski: Injured guys go to the back of the line

Seattle Sleestaks season ticket-holder: Kevin Alvarez seems promising.  80+% contact rate, projectable body and aesthetically pleasing swing?  Pick to click?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes, possibly as a two-year dart throw instead of a next-year PTC.

Rob A: Blatant dynasty question: I love to scoop up the recently graduated prospects that didn’t click fast enough to be kept. Prefer Cam Smith or Jordan Lawlar? Or Ronny Mo?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still roll the dice on Lawlar of that group. SMith is probably the safest hitter of that group but might be RF Alec Bohm. Lawlar has some near-term paths to playing time in a good hitting environment, and some of his issues (he can’t throw accurately from certain positions) don’t matter for fantasy as much as they do a real world baseball context.

Tony: Which player do you consider your favorite “win” – as in you had them higher than most and they turned out to be just as good as you hoped?

Brendan Gawlowski: Gustavo Campero; Cole Ragans.

Guest: no question, just want to say thanks for all the amazing work! Top 100 dropping on the same day my membership renews is 80 grade timing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you for being a member. Folks should consider becoming one if they aren’t already, the site can keep growing and changing (maybe even in surprising directions) with more subs and you get some cool features.

Paul: Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon were 1a and 1b on most peoples draft board at the start of the draft. Do you think there was any error in scouting them outta college, or have they just got unlucky?

Brendan Gawlowski: Condon’s injuries have complicated his pro evaluations. Eric can weigh in on this if he has a thought but I think that, maybe in just the last year or two, we’ve gotten a little better at picking apart patience vs passivity statistically. Can’t speak to Cleveland’s thoughts on that re: Bazzana but it’s possible that that part of his game got more of a boost than it should have.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was definitely swinging hard during Fall League. I still don’t think his barrel feel is especially good.

sox: How close was Dorian Soto to sneaking in the back of this list?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was in our mix of DSL guys on the bubble until the very end. Wish the contact data was *special special* like Made’s was a year ago rather than just above-average.

Jeff: Wasn’t Susana Hurt as well?

Brendan Gawlowski: They go to the back of the line for the tier in which they are graded

Well-Beered Englishman: Carson used to call the Eric-Kiley tandem “McDongenhagen.” Have you guys thought about your duo name? Maybe The Big Longowski?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m emailing you a release form so the screen printed boxer briefs can be made.

Silly question: Do scouts have to pay a gate fee to watch HS games? College? Minors? Or do that have a scout pass?

Brendan Gawlowski: Minors no, college often yes. Don’t forget the parking.

flightsongs: Vintage cube p1p1, Sol Ring or Black Lotus?

Eric A Longenhagen: I want Lotus because of the spirit and vibe of it, because I’ve never gotten to play with it, and because the mana can be colored. I suck at combo decks tho

Alex: Thoughts on Jacob Melton?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45, James and I agreed quickly

Robert: A little suprised to see Billy Carlson omitted from the list.  Is it (lack of) confidence in the hit tool that is driving this?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Well-Tequilad Angeleno: With the Giants system on the rise, are there any other guys in there flirting with the outskirts of the top 100? And could big seasons from Josuar, Luis and the low level pitchers vault this system into the top 10?

Brendan Gawlowski: Whisenhunt, Davidson, Bresnahan all on the long list. I think the ACL crew they had last year was interesting and exciting but we’re probably going to need another year before we’re hyping De La Torre or Keyner in a huge way

Matty: Hypothetical range on Murakami?

Eric A Longenhagen: In there with Montes and Condon

Big Buckston: Random thought, but do you think the contraction of the minors will results in more prospects emerging from indy ball?

Brendan Gawlowski: In theory, but I also expected it to happen a little more than it has after the short season chop.

Gamer: dont forget yunior marte (no, not that one) on the giants list!

Brendan Gawlowski: Another good one. Cayama too.

529: Who is the guy you differ on the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: We have a piece schedule for this week called “Daylight Guys: Prospects We Disagree About” that you’re gonna wanna read.

Brendan Gawlowski: We both have players we pushed onto the list that the other wouldn’t have ranked independently. And we both argued a guy or two off that would’ve been.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah shit, Robert Duvall died.

JJ: Do you have a comp for Kruz Schoolcraft’s athleticism? When hearing about him it seems to be special class of talent and twitch but I don’t know how to think about or quantify that

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a graceful athlete, watched him hustle double popup slide last spring, huge kid. Sabathia is too much.. lefty Doug Fister?

boobie miles: Was Sebastian Walcott’s ranking brought down due to recent elbow surgery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, Boobie.

Eric A Longenhagen: His ranking, not his grade.

bob: ive spent this offseason falling in love with esmerlyn valdez. you guys had him ending 2025 as a 45+ who was putting up video game numbers in the AFL … am i delusional to think he had a shot at the list and mayb efell just short?

Eric A Longenhagen: Randall Grichuk type. 45 for me

Brendan Gawlowski: Y’all have been really good at identifying the late cuts today.

Avery: Maybe not so much a prospect question as a rules question, but why is Nolan McLean still prospect-eligible if he received votes for RoTY last year already? Did the BBWAA just mess up?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, McLean was just incredible enough last summer to get votes even though he was barely there.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s still rookie eligible.

Eric A Longenhagen: People have made mistake on RoY ballots before

Eric A Longenhagen: The BBWAA messes up. I’m a new member, my ID card has my name misspelled and has me as part of the Seattle chapter. Though, MLB prints the cards, not the Association. It’s an enormous body, stuff like this happens. I had Mick Abel on our list until Meg caught that he graduated during editing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabby Moreno if i recall

Brendan Gawlowski: Edinson Volquez ^

The Big Longlowski: have you ever gone to scout a game in jellies and a bathrobe?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, but the airline once lost my bag so I went to one in basketball shorts and a t-shirt. I stayed down the line out of embarrassment.

Dynasty Dispersal Draft: I don’t need player link in chat. What I want is for them to be tagged so we can reference said chat later.

Eric A Longenhagen: gotcha

Eric A Longenhagen: I can do tha

Eric A Longenhagen: that* can you tell we’ve been chatting for two hours?

Ben: Hello. I have heard a lot about Konnor Griffin and all of his hype. How does he project? Who is your comp? I see he has 70 power and speed but idk what makes him 70 FV.

Eric A Longenhagen: 70 FV means 5+ annual WAR on average during years of team control

Eric A Longenhagen: We thought about 80’ing him. His contact rate is a little worse than Bobby Witt’s, which is why we didn’t. Bobby is on an 80 pace, there’s some daylight there.

Dynasty Dispersal Draft: Should’ve known Eric’s a Flyers fan. Bobby Brink was one of my faves to watch in college.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t even have the Coyotes to cheat on them with anymore.

Sirras: What question do you wish readership asked you more (or at all)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Why do you differ with the other publications on (Player Who We 45’d).

Guest: What would Yairo Padilla need to demonstrate this year to make a Top 100 push?

Eric A Longenhagen: More lift/game power. I really like him. If here were more projectable he’d be next to Yolfran on the list, but Padilla the cement is more dry on the bod.

e: as opposed to ‘best prospect you ever saw’, who’s a guy who either of you were just totally out on and ended up being great?

Eric A Longenhagen: Freaking Jeff McNeil, who I thought was awful in the Fall League.

Brendan Gawlowski: I didn’t have a good grade on Ernie Clement.

EJ: Esteban Mejia , how far from top 109?

Eric A Longenhagen: Close, crazy athlete, crazy arm speed, all over the place right now.

Gemma: No mention of players like Kevin Alvarez of Houston or Justin Gonzales of Boston? Seeing quite a bit of T100 helium with those two, are they on your radar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Gonzalez very physically mature for his age. Maxed out look at 19, corner guy, odd swing with inside out spray, again someone who looks good on the trackman spreadsheet esp when you adjust for his age (like avg contact, above vg power on a teenager) but I’m not as inclined to do age-based projection on a guy built like this already.

Eric A Longenhagen: On the radar, yes. Alvarez the combo of body projection and bat control is exciting, his bat speed is way below average right now. Slow enough I wanna see it improve before we stuff him, he has less obvious bodily whip than the Made/Josuar guys….

Josh: Gut check: will Spencer Jones still be in the majors at age 30?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think yes, but I’m the high man.

Kevin: A couple years ago the Rockies had four top 100 prospects – Drew Romo, Zac Veen, Yanquiel Fernandez, and Adael Amador. None look to be significant contributors. Is that a reflection on the team’s development effectiveness? The inherent nature of prospect rankings? Some combination or something else?

Brendan Gawlowski: Probably worth a full article but a mix. There’s attrition even in the best systems but the degree to which COL guys stagnate was/is really grim.

Brendan Gawlowski: The unique hell of scouting the Rockies was that they actually scout/draft/sign just fine and have interesting guys who never get any better. Which means your reports will tend to be high.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay let’s be done, Brendan.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you everyone for coming today. I will chat again in my normal time slot on Friday.

Brendan Gawlowski: A great, optimistic note to leave on. Eat Arby’s.

Eric A Longenhagen: Please continue to enjoy Prospect Week. It’s Shark Week, but Prospects.

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s better. Bye everyone!