ZiPS 2026 Top 100 Prospects

Now that the coal has been shoveled into the steam engine and the gears are moving, the ZiPS projection system is back for the 11th year with its take on the top prospects in baseball. Just in case this is your first time with ZiPS, it’s a computer projection system that uses a whole bunch of algorithms, and more data than you can shake a stick at, to generate a forecast of how baseball players might perform in the future. There’s no truth to the rumors that it also utilizes my obvious disdain for your favorite team; it only harnesses some of that!

ZiPS prospect projections are not designed to replace traditional scouting, but rather to be a supplemental look, one that estimates where things stand if we only had data to work with. ZiPS has a strong history of projecting prospects — it liked players such as Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso far more than the prospecteers who aren’t in my computer — but all models are wrong; it’s just that some are useful. There is a great deal of uncertainty attendant with lower-level minor league stats that isn’t present at the higher levels, so ZiPS tends to be more confident about prospects with more time under their belts. As a result, non-statistical information about players, things ZiPS can’t and doesn’t know, is very relevant to how they’ll progress! This is not the one-prospect-list-to-bring-them-all-and-in-the-darkness-bind-them.

As is tradition, I dialed back a decade to look at the ZiPS Top 100 from 2016 to review its hits and misses:

As expected, there are some good hits and some huge misses. ZiPS was a very early adopter on Trea Turner, Ozzie Albies, and Ryan McMahon, and had more than its share of back-end top 100 prospects who rated more positively than consensus (Brandon Nimmo, Reynaldo López, Jack Flaherty, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman). But naturally there are some splats, most notably AJ Reed, but also José Peraza, Austin Barnes, Brian Johnson, and Renato Nuñez. All but two of the top 100 did in fact play in the majors, with the exceptions being Jomar Reyes and Kevin Ziomek, whose professional career only lasted one more start due to thoracic outlet syndrome.

But let’s get to why you’re here. Presenting the ZiPS 2026 Top 100:

There are a few important things to remember here. First, ZiPS has absolutely no way to consider high school prospects with little or no professional experience. Eli Willits absence from this list isn’t due to anything wrong with his statistics, but simply the fact that ZiPS doesn’t have anything useful to say about a player with 15 professional games and no college experience. ZiPS is a good tool, but I see little point in using it for something it can’t possibly be good at. There are some college-only players on this list, but they do take a hit if the projections are based mostly or exclusively on college data, similar to Nick Kurtz last year.

ZiPS tends to be higher on high-floor/low-ceiling prospects than scouts are, but I’ve minimized that tendency in recent years by using the average of the 80th- and 20th-percentile projections, resulting in Triple-A players who are projected to be safe, middling role players, but who don’t have big upside, ranking lower on the list.

Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot of agreement between the ZiPS and FanGraphs Top 100 lists, with 62 players appearing on both (compared to 63 last year). To keep things apples to apples, I’m not including players from foreign leagues on this list, but you can see their projections in the normal spots.

From a team standpoint, here’s how many prospects each club has among the top 50, 100, 200, and 500 prospects. I’ve highlighted the leaders in each category:

The Pirates and Brewers have moved up considerably since last year, as have the Cardinals. This is probably the best showing for the Angels in years, though they are still only middle of the pack. The Yankees and Padres are really hurting, and while the Orioles still do very well in terms of the ZiPS Top 500 prospects, the computer thinks that aside from Samuel Basallo, their flow of top prospects has slowed considerably.

Looking at a big list of 100 players is a daunting task, so let’s break it down by position, and dig into some of the players who ZiPS does or doesn’t like. We’ll start with the first basemen:

There being five first baseman in the ZiPS Top 100 is actually an unusually large number these days! Bryce Eldridge wasn’t impressive in 2025, and there are some holes in his game, but he was still a very young player in the high minors with serious power upside. Edward Florentino’s A-ball performance was quite impressive for the level, and ZiPS thinks he has huge power upside. ZiPS doesn’t see Ryan Clifford becoming a star, but thinks he’s one of the safer home run bets among prospects today, albeit with low batting average and on-base figures. He does project as well as Pete Alonso at a similar point in their careers, though he probably isn’t going to be that good. Luke Adams and Eric Bitonti give the Brewers interesting options at a position they’ve struggled at lately, and Adams is already fairly high in the minors. ZiPS is a bit lower than our rankings on Ralphy Velazquez, who the system sees as having a good bit of bust potential. Turning to the second basemen:

ZiPS thinks that Kevin McGonigle should be in the majors right now, and would be a strong contender for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. (As an aging Gen X’er, I also will enjoy years of making McGonigle/McGarnable jokes that 80% of people won’t get.) Yes, Michael Arroyo is a Walks Guy, but he also has really good power at a young age, and isn’t so atrocious defensively that he’s already been exiled to first base or anything. JJ Wetherholt only ranks third on this list because of how highly ZiPS ranks McGonigle and Arroyo, and like the former, he deserves to be a starter in 2026. Travis Bazzana is interesting in that ZiPS is unsure if his batting averages will be enough to make him a big plus in the majors, but the computer also likes his defense more than the general consensus. Jadher Areinamo is the arguable reach on this list, but ZiPS thinks he has reasonable power upside, and that he can stick at second base. To the shortstops:

Shortstop is the position where there is the most agreement between ZiPS and our prospect team. Nine of the top 10 shortstop prospects in ZiPS rank in the FanGraphs top 50. You don’t find a real significant disagreement until Cooper Pratt; ZiPS is giving him a lot of rope for his 2025 because of how young he was.

ZiPS has a weird tendency to flip the prospect team’s top two guys, but this time it’s absolutely convinced on Konnor Griffin. ZiPS thinks that Griffin would be a serious All-Star contender if he starts from Opening Day, and my projections very rarely say that about any prospect. Colt Emerson and Leo De Vries both get bumps up from very good 2025 rankings, and Jesús Made has nearly unlimited upside if his power develops as expected — and maybe even if it doesn’t! ZiPS remains relatively unfazed by Carson Williams’ unimpressive debut. He didn’t make the top 10, but ZiPS is really big on Kaelen Culpepper, enough that it sort of forgives the Twins for sending Carlos Correa back to Houston. Next, to the hot corner:

Third base has really fallen off in the ZiPS projections. Last year, the 10th-ranked third baseman, Cam Smith, was 129th overall; this year, the fifth-ranked third baseman would have been 129th! The top third base prospect, Sal Stewart, is probably a first baseman in the majors — that’s likely where he will play in 2026 — but wherever he ends up long-term, ZiPS is pretty confident that he’ll hit. Jacob Reimer is a big mover this year, and if you read my article from last week, you’ll know he has one of the most improved year-to-year projections, though he may need to be in the outfield to get a shot with the Mets. Mikey Romero isn’t a finished product, but ZiPS thinks he’ll at least hit some homers, albeit without a terribly good batting average. Ethan Holliday didn’t have enough professional time for ZiPS to consider, and the projections are far from sold on Charlie Condon, though he ought to at least be a good role player. ZiPS want to see more progress from Caleb Bonemer beyond walks before it places him as highly as our rankings do. Let’s turn to the catchers:

It remains to be seen if Samuel Basallo actually ends up a catcher, but wherever he plays, ZiPS at least thinks he’ll hit. The same goes for Carter Jensen, who ZiPS thinks ought to be Kansas City’s catcher right now; I suspect he has a better chance at sticking behind the plate than Basallo does. Teenage catchers are dangerous, but Alfredo Duno absolutely torched the minors in 2025, and doesn’t appear to be plagued with any defensive questions. Somehow, the St. Louis Cardinals have three catchers in the ZiPS Top 100, so it’s going to be interesting to see how they give everyone a chance in the minors. It’s no wonder they don’t seem to be in any particular hurry to get Iván Herrera back behind the plate. Most likely someone will end up being traded. Moisés Ballesteros would rank higher purely as a bat, but ZiPS isn’t bullish about his defense staying in the acceptable-ish range in the majors. He could explode very quickly offensively as a DH, however. Lastly for the position players, the outfielders:

Max Clark, who ranked 12th overall last year, jumps into the top 10, remaining quite on target for Detroit. Like McGonigle, he could contribute right now in the majors, though the path isn’t quite as easy for him; the Tigers have a lot of platoon combos that squeeze out value in the outfield. A healthy season keeps Jett Williams ranked highly, and ZiPS likes Emmanuel Rodriguez’s upside so much that he doesn’t take all that much of a hit due to injury. Theo Gillen is a rather unorthodox pick, as ZiPS knows to be skeptical of walk-heavy guys, but the computer thinks his defense is better than most do, and his speed will play especially nicely in Tampa. Owen Caissie isn’t a well-rounded player, but he can hit a giant boatload of home runs, something the Marlins need, and he’s been a fave of ZiPS for a while now. ZiPS sees Yeremy Cabrera as a sneaky-good pickup in the MacKenzie Gore trade.

ZiPS remains more unsure of Walker Jenkins than the scouts, and won’t be on the Zyhir Hope bandwagon until his power either develops further or his contact improves. ZiPS has thought that Joshua Baez is more interesting than Jordan Walker for a while now, and the downside of his contact rate is what has ZiPS relatively low on Spencer Jones, at least compared to his decent overall projection. ZiPS still loves Jace LaViolette’s 2024 minor league performance, which is why it has him so high for a college-only guy; I swear it’s not that I’ve programmed ZiPS to have extra love for a player whose name sounds like that of a the protagonist in a Southern Gothic detective mystery set in a creepy Louisiana mansion, though I should probably consider it. Justin Crawford is probably more interesting than his ranking is; his 20th-percentile projection is quite low, but he does have a high chance, relative to his ranking, of being a real contributor in the majors. Finally, the pitchers:

Thirteen pitchers make the ZiPS top 50, one of the largest groups ever. The system is aware of postseason performance, and Trey Yesavage just barely edges out Nolan McLean among the late-season pitching prospects who showed a lot in the majors, yet still retain rookie status for 2026. You can add another holdover, Bubba Chandler, to that list. Some may roll their eyes about Ryan Sloan ranking so high, especially nudging out Liam Doyle, but excelling at all as a professional is a hurdle Sloan’s already cleared. It’s not like ZiPS doesn’t like Doyle; that’s about as good a projection as I’ve ever seen from ZiPS for a pitcher based mainly on college performance.

ZiPS always seems to like some unexpected pitcher right around 30, with Braylon Doughty being the first pitcher on the ZiPS board to not make the FanGraphs Top 100. ZiPS liked his command in the low minors, and he missed plenty of bats along the way. Like Jacob Reimer, Mitch Bratt made the most-improved projection list, and ZiPS sees him as the rare highly interesting control-heavy prospect. Jonah Tong is a ZiPS favorite, and both Connelly Early and Payton Tolle had some real highlights for Boston; that they are basically depth guys at the moment is one reason ZiPS likes the Red Sox rotation so much. Alex Clemmey still has to lose a walk or two before he’ll make an impact, but young, hard-throwing lefties who get lots of swings and misses are worth watching.

If you’re enjoying the ZiPS Top 100 and the rest of our Prospect Week coverage, why not become a FanGraphs Member, and banish those obnoxious ads to the land of wind and ghosts? Your continued support over the years has been absolutely key to me being able to focus a large percentage of my time to this and related baseball nerdery. While I’d be happy to be paid in tacos, my car insurance company has been frustratingly insistent about being paid in actual currency.