This article unveils OOPSY’s first WAR-based Top 100 prospects list.

Broadly put, OOPSY mirrors the other projections systems at FanGraphs, but it uses its own ingredients, including its own aging curves, regression amounts, recency weights, major league equivalencies, and park factors. In terms of accuracy, it has held its own with the other projection systems, including when projecting rookies.

Since 2024, I have published OOPSY’s top prospect lists over at RotoGraphs with more of a fantasy focus, ranking pitchers by peak ERA and hitters by peak wRC+. In 2025, I began incorporating average fastball velocity into my prospect pitching projections, using data from The Board, as well as Stuff+, provided by Eno Sarris, where possible. Midway through 2025, I started accounting for EV90 in my prospect hitting projections, using data from Prospect Savant; I also include bat speed where data permits. And now that OOPSY accounts for defense as well as baserunning, I can rank prospects by projected WAR, to theoretically align more closely with the valuations used by major league organizations. Read the rest of this entry »

“I will start with the easy answer:” wrote Jeff Zimmerman back in 2014. The next part was bolded: “No, first and second half stats are not as important as the entire season for pitchers and hitters.” Jeff was talking about fantasy baseball, and whether you should consider a particularly strong or weak second half more relevant to a player’s future performance, but the lesson was clear. Overall stats tell you a lot more about a player than half a season of stats.

The same lesson is true over the course of a career. Since 1933, the year of the first All-Star Game, Stathead says that 2,146 players have made at least 900 career plate appearances in both the first half and the second half. Just under 93% of those players have a second half OPS that’s within 10% of their first half OPS. (We’re using percentages here rather than raw points in order to create a level playing field for players of varying skill levels. I calculated them by subtracting each player’s first half OPS from their second half OPS, then dividing the difference by their first half OPS.) Only 15 players – again, that’s 15 players out of a sample of 2,146 – saw their second half OPS differ from their first half OPS by more than 20%.

All of this makes sense. There’s no reason that a batter should be consistently better at the beginning or end of the season. As Eno Sarris once reminded us, seasons themselves are arbitrary endpoints. Most of the 15 outliers I mentioned in the previous paragraph are the results of short, noisy samples, either because they had short careers or they’re still in the early stages of their career right now. The longer your career, the more likely that your true talent level will shine through, regardless of the date on the calendar. Read the rest of this entry »

We know the steps to the annual spring dance by now: Pitcher appears for spring training, pitcher suffers minor injury or discomfort during practice, America holds its collective breath and hopes that barking elbow will just resolve itself.

Unfortunately, that hope is all too rarely vindicated, as imaging quickly confirms said pitcher has torn an essential bit of connective tissue.

The Twins speed-ran this dance this week with their no. 1 starter, Pablo López. The veteran right-hander cut short a bullpen session on Monday after feeling soreness in his elbow. Minnesota GM Jeremy Zoll announced Tuesday that López had torn an elbow ligament and that season-ending surgery was “very much on the table.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about recent signings and injuries pertaining to teams whose seasons they’ve recently previewed, the Diamondbacks re-signing Zac Gallen and the thrilling resolution of the free-agent-contract over/under draft, the winter of Bryce Harper’s discontent, Harper and Manny Machado’s comments about the Dodgers’ spending, Max Muncy’s extension, the worsening of the allegations against Emmanuel Clase, new details about the challenge system, Mike Trout’s impending return to center field, and (44:33) the momentous, surprising resignation of Tony Clark as MLBPA executive director. Then (1:00:22) they bring on FanGraphs prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski to discuss their ranking of the sport’s top 100 (well, 110) prospects.

Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”
Audio outro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to post on recent Padres signings
Link to Preller extension story
Link to MLBTR on López
Link to MLBTR on Rengifo
Link to post on Gallen signing
Link to EWStats site
Link to over/under draft history
Link to Harper video
Link to Harper article
Link to Harper t-shirt
Link to Happy Gilmore scene
Link to Harper/Machado comments
Link to Muncy extension story
Link to the latest on Clase
Link to Ben on Clase
Link to Manfred’s Clase comment
Link to Clase’s 2018 balk
Link to EW Episode 1269
Link to challenge system explainer
Link to broadcast details
Link to MLBTR on Trout
Link to The Athletic on Clark
Link to ESPN on Clark
Link to MLBTR on Clark
Link to Baumann on Clark
Link to 2024 whistleblower complaint
Link to federal probe report
Link to federal probe report 2
Link to federal probe report 3
Link to OneTeam Partners explainer
Link to NLFPA meltdown
Link to FG top prospects list
Link to Griffin’s Instagram
Link to ZiPS Top 100
Link to top 100 prospects chat
Link to piece on prospect debates
Link to Brendan’s return post
Link to Ben on pitching prospects
Link to latest Wade/Ward mix-up
Link to Wade/Ward history

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On Tuesday morning, it was reported by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough that Tony Clark was resigning as executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, a post he’d held since 2013. The news came the very morning MLBPA leadership was due to start its annual whistle-stop tour through all 30 major league spring training clubhouses. The MLBPA is also preparing for negotiations on a new CBA; all indications are that we’re a little over nine months from a lockout of some length.

While the timing of the announcement was bad, Clark’s ouster was not itself unforeseen. For about a year, federal agents have been investigating both the MLBPA and the NFLPA over financial dealings related to the group licensing firm OneTeam Partners. Clark was also the subject of a November 2024 whistleblower complaint alleging self-dealing and abuse of power regarding the MLBPA-owned youth baseball company Players Way. Surely Clark’s resignation came in advance of another shoe dropping in one or both of those cases.

No, it turns out. On Tuesday afternoon, Jeff Passan and Don Van Natta Jr. of ESPN reported that Clark had resigned in disgrace for a hitherto undiscovered reason: An internal investigation had revealed that he had an “inappropriate relationship” with his sister-in-law, who had been hired to work at the MLBPA in 2023.

That’s a new one. Read the rest of this entry »

The rosters for the 2026 World Baseball Classic were announced earlier this month, so aside from changes due to injuries or insurance eligibility decisions, we now know who will be suiting up for each country when the tournament begins in early March. In this series of posts, you’ll find a team-by-team breakdown, with notable players, storylines to monitor, and speculation on the serious stuff, such as how the squad will fare on the field, as well as commentary on some of the less serious stuff, like uniforms and team aura.

If you missed the post covering Pool A, or you need a quick refresher on how the WBC works, you can catch up on that here. The post covering Pool B is right over here, and for Pool C click here.

The five teams competing in Pool D — Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Israel, and Nicaragua — will play their games in Miami from March 6 to March 11. The two clubs with the best records after playing each of the other four will advance to the Knockout stage, where they will compete in a single-elimination bracket against the six teams that advance from the other pools. Read the rest of this entry »

No two scouts or evaluators are going to agree on everything, and we’re no exception. We get asked all the time about who liked which player more, or who was more lukewarm on this guy versus that one — not to mention the steady stream of “Outlet A ranked Player B here, but you had him there, what gives?” questions that populate our chats. These are especially compelling and relevant inquiries this time of year, because inevitably we had to resolve a degree of disagreement as we compiled our list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball.

This year, we’ve decided to address those questions head on. Throughout our list-building process, we came to similar, or similar enough, conclusions about most players. Oftentimes Eric was a tick higher on one player here, or Brendan the high man there, and usually a quick back and forth was enough to bridge any gaps. In a couple cases though, we didn’t reach consensus. There were a handful of players that Brendan was happy to rank, but Eric would have preferred to leave off, and vice versa. We think offering a peek into those discussions will prove insightful for readers. These back and forths highlight the types of players who are generally more difficult to evaluate, as well as the metrics and scouting practices that guide decision-making when you have to make a call one way or the other. Through it all, we hope you’ll arrive at a conclusion that most scouts and analysts eventually reach: That spirited debate is a healthy part of the evaluative process, and disagreements without clean resolution are occasionally the cost of doing business in an uncertain world.

Kendry Chourio, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Brendan: Let’s start with a pitcher who ultimately didn’t make our list. I never caught Kendry Chourio live, but I adored his stuff when I put on the tape. He throws hard, I see a path to a plus curve and changeup, and he’s advanced for someone who played all of last season as a 17-year-old. The Royals rightly promoted him off of the Dominican complex, and then he dominated in Arizona to the point that he actually wound up in Low-A down the stretch. And you can see why: For his age, his ability to command the ball and execute his secondaries stands out immediately. His line – 51.1 innings, 63 strikeouts, 0.95 WHIP, just five walks – was incredible. I think we both agree that there are a lot of good things going on here. Can you elaborate on why you were still a little skeptical of him when it came time to build the list? Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Waldschmidt is ranked 35th on our newly-released 2026 Top 100 Prospects list, and his right-handed stroke is a big reason why. Along with assigning him a 50 FV, our prospect team wrote that the 23-year-old outfielder in the Arizona Diamondbacks system “does just about everything you want at the plate and he looks the part of a bat-first future regular in the box.” Drafted 31st overall in 2024 out of the University of Kentucky, Waldschmidt is coming off of a 2025 season in which he put up a .289/.419/.473 slash line with 18 home runs and a 142 wRC+ between High-A Hillsboro and Double-A Amarillo.

The way he goes about his craft differs somewhat from his contemporaries. Waldschmidt’s setup is unorthodox, and his swing isn’t exactly what you would draw up in the lab. When it comes to mechanics, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound Sarasota native isn’t a poster child for the science of hitting, but rather an advocate of the art of hitting. Fitting a paint-by-numbers mold isn’t his goal, squaring up baseballs is — and that’s precisely what he does. As evidenced by his track record and presence in the top half of our Top 100, Waldschmidt’s way works just fine.

Waldschmidt discussed his atypical hitting profile earlier this month.

———

David Laurila: Your hitting mechanics have been described as “low maintenance.” What does that mean to you, and how long have your mechanics been in place?

Ryan Waldschmidt: “Throughout my whole entire life, I’ve had a pretty similar variation of what I do now. I mean, there was a time when I was younger that I had a little bit of a pick-it-up, put-it-back-down stride. Once I got to college… my freshman year, I even had a stride at Charleston Southern. Then once I got to Kentucky [as a sophomore] is when I kind of tapped into the no-stride from my setup. Read the rest of this entry »

If all goes well, Corbin Carroll’s broken hamate bone won’t affect either his career or the Diamondbacks’ season too much. He will miss spring training and likely some time at the beginning of the season, but it’s not out of the question that when he returns, he’ll look like the perennial MVP candidate we know and love. On the other hand (Fun fact about the English language: When you use the phrase “On the other hand,” the hand you’re referring to is recovering from hamate bone surgery), the injury will very much change the look of Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. Carroll is out, and manager Mark DeRosa has found an exciting replacement in Roman Anthony. Team USA’s outfield is a mix of youth and experience, with Anthony joining Pete Crow-Armstrong and veterans Byron Buxton and Aaron Judge.

The Red Sox selected Anthony out of high school with the 79th pick in the 2022 draft. Scouts started talking about him soon after, because while in Low-A, his poor offensive numbers belied a wild combination of underlying metrics. He was running shockingly low swing rates, walking more than he struck out, and absolutely pasting the ball when he did swing. The Red Sox promoted him aggressively, and with good reason. Despite his youth, he put up a combined 141 wRC+ in the minors, and he did so with the same impressive plate discipline and exit velocity, the kinds of tools that tend to translate to big league success.

Anthony arrived in Boston in June as the consensus top prospect in baseball, and after taking a week to get acclimated, he finished the season with a 140 wRC+ and excellent defensive numbers. He placed third in the Rookie of the Year voting. Despite getting into just 71 games, his 2.7 WAR ranked sixth on the team. Extended over a full season, it was a six-win pace. Among players with at least 300 plate appearances, that 140 wRC+ tied Anthony with Michael Busch as the 14th-best hitter in the game. Just to put that in context, in AL/NL history, 346 players have made at least 300 plate appearances in their age-21 season. Anthony became the 26th one of them to post a wRC+ of 140 or better. By my count, 15 of those 26 are Hall of Famers, and Mike Trout is well on his way to joining them. Read the rest of this entry »

I try to be humble and open-minded as an analyst; there’s so much we don’t or can’t know at the time a player signs with a team. And the future? She is as capricious as she is mean-spirited. Nothing is guaranteed.

So I look at the Padres’ busy Presidents’ Day weekend — in which they signed Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, and Ty France — and think to myself: I don’t know for a fact that A.J. Preller doesn’t have a bunch of European polymaths in the basement of Petco Park developing a time machine. That might sound farfetched, but “stick a bunch of smart guys under a stadium and see what happens” is literally how we got the world’s first working nuclear reactor. If Preller turns out to be the General Leslie Groves of time travel, he’ll have earned his contract extension and then some.

If Preller can retrieve previous versions of these players from the ethers of subspace, we’ll look back on this weekend (or forward, considering we have the ability to move through time in this hypothetical) as a definitive one in the 2026 NL West race.

Assuming no paradigm-shifting technology is to come, this seems OK. Read the rest of this entry »