The summer before his senior year of high school, Luzardo looked like a relatively unprojectable pitchability lefty, albeit an advanced one. His fastball was only in the 88-92 range at Area Codes, though his changeup and curveball were each above-average. He did not throw during the fall and instead devoted more time to working out. The following spring, with a new physique, Luzardo’s stuff was way up across the board, his fastball now sitting comfortably in the mid-90s, and touching 97. Four starts into his senior season, Luzardo tore his UCL and needed Tommy John.

After most of the first three rounds of the 2016 draft had come and gone, it seemed as though Luzardo might end up at the University of Miami. Four outings (including the one during which he broke) wasn’t enough for many teams to have high-level decision makers get in to see him and want to take him early, but the Nationals (who have a history of drafting pitchers who have fallen due to injury) called his name and signed him for $1.4 million, a bonus equivalent to an early second rounder. Luzardo rehabbed as a National and when he returned the following summer, his stuff had completely returned. He made just three starts for the GCL Nats before he was traded to Oakland as part of the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson deal.

After a dominant first full year in Oakland’s system, Luzardo appeared poised to seize a rotation spot early in 2019, when suddenly, the very contagious injury bug that has bedeviled Oakland pitching prospects for the last several years infected his shoulder and, later during rehab, his lat. He was confined to early-morning sim games on the Mesa backfields until June, when he was sent to rehab at Hi-A Stockton and then to Triple-A Nashville, where Luzardo’s pitch count climbed back to typical starter norms. Oakland ‘penned him for September, a multi-inning weapon for the stretch and playoff run. He was sitting 94-96 and touched 99 as a starter in the minors, the same as he was out of the big league bullpen. It’s a sinker, but it has barrel-shattering tail and pairs nicely with both of Luzardo’s secondaries, which live at the bottom of the zone and beneath it. He’ll add and subtract from his breaking ball to give it a curveball shape that bends into the zone for strikes, or add power to it and coax hitters into waiving at pitches that finish well out of the zone. His changeup is firm but has late bottom and should also miss bats. The violence in Luzardo’s delivery combined with his injury history is slightly worrisome, but he was clearly operating at full speed late last year and has top-of-the-rotation stuff and pitchability, so his 60 FV has that risk baked in.

Puk looked like he had leveled up during 2018 Spring Training. His delivery was more balanced and repeatable, and he rebooted his old high school curveball, which he hadn’t used in college, and quickly reclaimed the feel for locating it; his changeup was also plus at times, much better than it was when he was an amateur. Then he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John, which kept him out for all of 2018 and most of 2019. Throughout the spring of 2019, you could just show up to Fitch Park in Mesa and run into one of Luzardo, Puk, James Kaprielian, or any of several other high-profile A’s rehabbers. Puk got into game action in April and May, throwing as many as four innings in an outing (that I’m aware of, anyway) before he was finally sent to an affiliate in June, but only in a two-inning start or bullpen capacity. He never threw more than 47 pitches in an outing and was limited to 20 or 30 bullets when the A’s finally called him up in September. He threw fewer curveballs in that role than he theoretically will as a starter, making that pitch tough to evaluate when he returned, but all the other weapons are intact, and Puk should contribute to Oakland’s rotation in 2020 assuming there’s a season. He projects as an above-average big league starter.

Murphy’s surgeries are starting to pile up. He’s had them for broken hamates in both hands, then was cut again in October because of his meniscus. Purely on tools, he’s a 55 FV prospect and it’s amazing that he’s gone from a walk-on at Wright State to one of the more well-rounded catching prospects in the minors. But the injuries, Murphy’s age (some of the sixish years I’m projecting here include his early 30s now), and the fact that some of his skills (he’s become a good receiver) may soon be less important caused me to round down.

Now if he starts hitting for more power in games, that’s a horse of a different color. He has plus raw power, though he hasn’t typically hit for it in games for various reasons. In college, his first broken hamate likely masked his thump and was part of the reason he fell to the 2016 draft’s third round. He had the second hamate break in pro ball and his swing is also very compact, relying on Murphy’s raw strength rather than efficient biomechanical movement to deliver extra-bases. He could be an above-average regular early on but I think there will be a little attrition over time, so I slid him back behind some players who I think have a higher long-term ceiling.

A physically projectable switch-hitter with infield actions, Puason is very similar to Mets shortstop Ronny Mauricio when the latter was an amateur, but Puason has shown better feel for airborne contact during workouts than Mauricio did at the same age. He has a chance to have plus tools across the board, but there’s some industry sentiment that in-game aptitude might cause those tools to play down. Specifically, there’s worry about his approach at the plate, which will be more problematic if Puason outgrows shortstop. He had already arrived in Mesa before the shutdown and had clearly been in the weight room during the offseason, which was especially evident in his shoulders.

Teams had seven-figure valuations on Davidson coming out of high school but he opted to go to Clemson, where he hit and hit for power for three consecutive years before getting $2.5 million as Oakland’s first rounder in 2019. He’s a big, switch-hitting 6-foot-3 shortstop (likely to stay there) with above-average power from both sides of the plate. He hasn’t hit for that sort of power with wood bats (he slugged just .266 both years on the Cape, .332 last summer) but that may be a stamina issue rather than a wood vs. composite one. There’s some hit tool risk here, and if Davidson ends up as a 30 or 35 bat in pro ball, he’ll probably end up as a utility guy, but if he’s making close to an even average amount of contact, he’s probably playing every day.

Jefferies walked off the mound with a trainer during his February 24 start and was later diagnosed with a biceps strain, the latest in a long line of injuries that limited him to just 20 pro innings before he finally had something resembling a full season in 2019. His injury history impacts his value pretty severely. Purely on talent, Jefferies is arguably a top 100 prospect (and was a 2020 Pick to Click before the latest hiccup) thanks largely to his plus, upper-80s changeup and plus command. Jefferies terse, upper-80s slider is effective because of his ability to locate it, and the rest of his repertoire, with precision. If healthy, he’ll likely contribute to the big club this year, but that’s a significant “if.”

One of the best high school shortstop defenders many scouts have ever seen, Allen’s size, or lack there of, is why he fell to the draft’s third round, as there was concern he would not have the requisite physicality to hit big league pitching. After a few years of pro ball, Allen’s wrists and forearms have become strong enough to put viable contact in play (and he makes plenty of it), though probably not with enough force to truly profile as an everyday shortstop.

He’s quite similar to fellow punchless leatherwizard José Iglesias, and could be a 1.5-ish WAR everyday player like Iglesias has been, but Allen started seeing time at second base and (in the Fall League) third base for the first time as a pro, and could also be an elite defensive utility infielder.

Buelvas doesn’t have monster tools right now. Instead, he’s got an advanced, well-rounded game and hit .300/.392/.506 in the AZL last year despite being two and a half years younger than the average player in that league. Yes, two and a half years younger than the average AZL player. Buelvas turns 18 today. His skillset is going to be augmented by how he physically matures. This isn’t a player with overt, striking physical projection like Kristian Robinson or any other 6-foot-3 prospect. Buelvas is an angular 5-foot-11, certainly likely to get bigger and stronger but probably not grow into huge power. He might hit 15 to 20 homers via consistent, quality contact, though. He’s fast and instinctive enough to stay in center field, so that would be all the power he needs to develop to play every day. His report reads a lot like contact/instincts high schoolers available in the 2020 draft — Pete Crow-Armstrong, Robert Hassell, Petey Halpin — and I have him valued in that range.

Neuse was Washington’s 2016 second rounder, then was traded the following summer as part of the Luzardo/Doolittle/Madson deal. He had a rough 2018, his first at Triple-A, then went bonkers in Vegas last year, slashing .317/.389/.550 with 60 extra-base hits in 126 games. He struggled during a brief big league stint (lion’s share of the reps there came at second base after playing mostly third in Triple-A) but didn’t get consistent at-bats outside of the first week of September. While I think the dramatic strikeout rate dip last year will probably regress to the mean, he’s going to be a valuable, multi-positional player (2B/3B with maybe some left, and shortstop in a pinch) with power.

What scouts think of Beck depends on how willing they are to view his struggles in the context of his pedigree. Remember, Beck had almost zero experience against elite high school pitching (he missed his showcase summer with a torn ACL) and was purely drafted based on the tools he showed during his senior spring. He’s only had two season’s worth of at-bats against pro-quality pitching, and (hopefully) he’s still adjusting. To that end, his ability to identify balls and strikes remains undercooked and it has undermined his performance in spite of blaring physical gifts. He still has power and arm strength but he’s swing-happy in the box, his swing is not yet geared for in-game power, and Beck is sometimes visibly frustrated, which appears to cause some of his approach issues to snowball. Again, Beck is only 21 and if you consider not only his relative inexperience but also his age (he was a 20-year-old at Hi-A in 2019 and was still nearly a league-average offensive player), there are reasons to be optimistic for late growth.

Kap finally threw his first innings at an A’s affiliate last year, making about 20 starts of three to five innings apiece, during which he threw plenty of strikes. His velocity was in the 88-91 range during Extended and then the 90-94 range during the summer. This spring, he was sitting 92-95, and while that’s not where Kap’s heater was at peak, it’s an encouraging sign for someone whose injury track record is as long as anyone’s in baseball. He missed nearly all of 2016 due to a flexor-tendon strain, blew out his UCL during 2017 spring training and needed Tommy John, then was shut back down with shoulder soreness in 2018 during rehab, and finally had more shoulder soreness early last year. So long as he has his spring velo if and when baseball returns, I think he’ll be a core member of Oakland’s staff in short order, possibly in multi-inning relief based on his 2019 usage.

Allen, who was acquired in exchange for non-tender candidate Jurickson Profar during the offseason, is a big, immobile defender with power. Some of his issues might be rendered moot by the eventual use of an electronic strike zone, but for now Allen’s reps need to be limited the way Evan Gattis’ were when he was seeing regular playing time, pairing him with pitchers who work in such a way that Allen’s problems are masked. With 26-man rosters coming, his presence as a third catcher, a late-inning lefty bench bat, a late-inning catcher when the A’s trail, or an occasional DH sub for Khris Davis against righties all make him immediately rosterable. He profiles as a bit player who does that sort of thing rather than an everyday catcher or first baseman.

Heim has been around for a while now and he’s always been notable because he’s a good receiver despite his size, and has an unusually low strikeout rate for a switch-hitter with such long levers. The quality of his at-bats has improved over the last couple of years and he’s pretty likely to play a big league role this year since Sean Murphy has had some issues staying on the field and Austin Allen isn’t a good defender. He might be more valuable than a 40 FV in the short-term because he’s a good framer, but if balls and strikes are soon called by tech, he’s probably more of a third catcher.

I’ve spoken with folks who think that even though he was one dinger away from going 20/20 and had perhaps the best surface-level stats of his career, Mateo’s approach actually regressed last year as he leaned into selling out for power in a hitting environment where it was more viable. That’s not to say that Mateo’s stats are a caricature of his physical abilities. He’s still an 80-grade runner with some power and arm strength, but at age 25, he remains somewhat inconsistent as an infield defender and is swing-happy at the plate. He hasn’t played center field since he was with the Yankees and it might be too late to revisit that. I think he’ll carve out a bench role somewhere based on his physical ability.

Wire-to-wire shoulder issues kept Holmes off the field for nearly all of the 2018 regular season and he was handled with care in 2019, working three to five innings at a time, same as Kaprielian. Also like Kaprielian, Holmes was 90-94 last year and came into 2020 spring training with more juice, sitting 92-95 before the shut down, with his typical slider and what looked like a new cutter. Based on the health and command track record, I have Holmes projected in middle relief.

For most of his college career, Baum’s stuff was not as electric as it was during his high school peak, but it ticked back up toward the end of his junior year at UNC. He was up to 96 after the draft. Baum’s arm slot wanders a little bit and some times his fastball has more run than at others. His changeup has fairly consistent fading action that mirrors the best of those fastballs, but his upper-70s, two-plane curveball is the headline pitch, and flashes plus. He’s on the starter/reliever line depending on how you feel about the delivery.

I’m not sweating Dunshee’s 5.38 Triple-A ERA. The Pacific Coast League is not a favorable environment for pitchers in general, and especially not for pitchers who take an approach like Dunshee’s (which results in lots of fly balls); the Las Vegas elevation is particularly punishing. Dunshee started nibbling and gave up way more homers in Vegas than he has for his entire career. I still view him as a deceptive, strike-throwing fifth starter or swingman.

Howard was a $40,000 senior sign in the eighth round of the 2017 draft and spent half of 2018 pitching well at Double-A. His stuff is pretty generic — 89-93 with an average cutter and curveball — but Howard’s size (he’s 6-foot-9) creates a unique angle on his pitches that hitters clearly aren’t comfortable with. He also has remarkable control for a pitcher of this size. It’s fifth or sixth starter stuff, which would already be a great outcome for a high-priority senior sign, and I’m inclined to round to the top of that range based on the weirdness created by Howard’s height and his purported competitiveness.

Bolt is somewhat injury-prone, but is otherwise a high-probability bench outfielder with some pop and speed. He’s a much better hitter from the left side than the right.

Selected from the Cubs in the Rule 5 Draft, Machin walked more than he struck out at Double-A (he was 25 all last summer) and hit .294/.386/.403 there. He can play all four infield spots passably, and has favorable handedness. That’s a rosterable utility guy.

Romero experienced an unexpected velocity spike as a 24-year-old, his heater creeping into the 93-97 range after it was 92-94 the year before. He also drastically improved his slider, which he lacked feel for just after signing, and he now looks like a standard fastball/slider middle relief prospect in most outings, though remember that Romero also throws a knuckle changeup — coined “The Critter” by Mat Latos, the only other guy I know of who throws it — which he has de-emphasized as the slider has emerged.

The stocky Diaz took his advanced bat-to-ball skills to Vermont and performed pretty well, slashing .264/.307/.430 while only striking out 15% of the time. There’s a moderate chance he eventually has to move to first base, and he likely lacks the power for that, but if he can stay at third Diaz could end up a plus bat who makes enough contact to be a low-end regular despite modest power.

Eierman’s older brother Johnny was a third round pick of the Rays in 2011 and his father, John, played A-ball for the Red Sox in the mid-90s. Jeremy was a solid prep prospect, but not the type who gets a big bonus and signs out of high school, so he ended up at Missouri State, where he had a breakout sophomore year. He was often seen by high-level decision makers during that breakout because he was playing alongside first round third baseman Jake Burger, and he had 2018 first round buzz by the end of the college postseason because scouts thought he could be a passable shortstop with all-fields power, and analytics folks liked his huge season and higher-than-you’d-expect exit velos. Then Eierman had an inconsistent summer with Team USA and his draft spring was a bit of a letdown. He plateaued, arguably had a worse statistical season, and suddenly there were doubts about his approach and ultimate defensive home. He fell to 70th overall. He made his full-season debut at Hi-A and struck out so much that he only slugged .357 even though 40% of his hits were for extra bases. He’s trending down but still has power and a chance to stay on the dirt.

Already Paulino’s size suggests he’s not a long-term fit at shortstop, but he does have infield actions and arm strength and could be quite good at third, or perhaps even shoehorned at second. He won’t turn 19 until later this week, and will be one of the more interesting prospects on Oakland’s AZL team. For now, he simply has an intriguing combination of power and defensive profile, with very little actually in focus. His approach is immature so I consider him a high-risk prospect, but he has enough power projection to profile as a low-end regular if he can be more selective and attack pitches he can drive.

Pro scouts considering McCann’s post-draft, sub-Mendoza line flailing at Vermont think the lack of contact he made there is an early career red flag. I’ve held his pre-draft evaluation here. His head does have a tendency to fly out and he’ll swing through stuff in the zone, but my goodness McCann has big power. He caught at Georgia Tech and split time behind the plate and at first base after signing. The pre-draft consensus was that he’d eventually move to first.

Smith has a promising contact/speed offensive profile enabled by his uncommon feel for all-fields, line drive contact. This is a classic tweener teenage outfield profile that’s shaded a bit differently because, unlike most others, Smith is actually kinda stocky and physical-looking, which perhaps means he’s less projectable. His lower half is very upright throughout his swing and he struggles to get underneath some pitches because of it. There’s a path to an everyday role here, one spearheaded by contact and good center field defense, but Smith has to clear some strength/power checkpoints.

Millas is a good catch-and-throw backstop who had a really strong sophomore year with the bat before regressing a little bit as a junior. He has above-average bat speed when he’s swinging at stuff down the middle but has to sacrifice whip for contact to get to pitches in most parts of the strike zone.

Reed was a lightly-scouted multi-sport high school athlete in Maryland who also played hockey before he arrived at the University of Florida. Soon after he stepped on campus, scouts saw and become enamored with his enormous athletic potential. He has 70 speed and defensive ability in center field, along with a 60 arm and average raw power. As a 6-foot-4, 210 pound athletic specimen, he’ll probably play forever as a fourth outfielder in the Jake Marisnick mold.

Catch Charles on the right night and he’ll show you three 55 or better pitches. Other nights, though, he’ll walk three or four guys just trying to get through an inning or two of work. I have him in up/down relief right now because the control is too erratic to trust Charles as a core part of your bullpen day in and day out, but if he ever starts throwing strikes (and finds a more consistent release for his splitter), he’ll be an absolute monster.

Deichmann hit nearly as many home runs during his six week Fall League stint as he did during all of 2019 at Double-A Midland, where his statline may have been compromised by an injured shoulder. It was the latest of several weird injuries that have limited Deichmann’s playing time each of the last three years. He was hit in the face by a pitch in 2017 and required surgery, then broke a hamate in 2018. While his performance may have been impacted by this, we’re still talking about a 25-year-old corner outfielder who has struck out in excess of 30% of the time at his last couple stops, and that scares me.

Pantuso looked like a 31st round steal last summer. He’s a leviathan small-school senior sign who was up to 98 in the AZL, and flashes a plus slider in the 83-86 range that has more length than most sliders that firm. He’ll move as fast as his fastball control allows and has strong relief stuff.

Mariñez was a notable infield prospect early in his career due to his hands, actions, arm strength and frame, but he never developed even viable upper-level feel for hitting, so he was moved to the mound late in 2018. He barely threw at an affiliate, and so was most widely seen during instructional league, where he was a fluid and easy 93-97, with good nascent secondary stuff. He had a strong 2019 in the mid-minors and I thought he deserved Rule 5 consideration, but he went unselected.

There are scouts and front office personnel who see Lazarito’s strikeout issues (he punched out 42% of the time last year) as entirely disqualifying, and clearly his ability to make contact needs to improve dramatically if he’s going to be any kind of big leaguer. He still has a rare power/speed blend, though, and I think his issues have more to do with swing path than anything else, which is more fixable than, say, issues caused by pitch recognition. His cut is fairly similar to what Luis Robert’s was before Robert and the White Sox made relevant adjustments to his mechanics, so I’m holding onto some optimism for Armenteros, though it has largely dwindled throughout the industry.

Barrera slugged over .500 during an injury-shortened 2019 (right shoulder surgery) at Double-A Midland, but his approach and swing path aren’t really conducive to him hitting for power going forward. I have him projected as a bench outfielder, albeit an uncommonly toolsy one because of his impact speed and throwing arm.

Mora was sent back to Vermont for a second consecutive year and was moved to the bullpen, where he struck out 47 hitters in 27 innings after experiencing a little velo bump. He has a well-balanced lower half but he lacks tactile feel for release, which impacts his command. His upper body rotates in unison like a tilt-a-whirl, and his low 3/4s arm slot generates mediocre angle on his fastball but nasty, two-plane movement on his slider.

Like Pantuso, Varland became known to FanGraphs after he was drafted. Thick and physical throughout the torso and thighs, Varland has a lightning-quick arm that generates mid-90s velocity at peak. His fastball has bat-missing life, and both his breaking balls have sufficient bite to avoid barrels as well, especially when they’re well-located. He had Tommy John last August and will miss all of 2020.