Kiley McDaniel: Hello friends and also other people, it is time for us to chat

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI, we posted an Orioles list and tomorrow we’ll be posting the Yankees list, but I’m taking a quick break from writing reports to chat with you people. Here’s the prospects index page with anything you may need from us: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Tommy N.: Mejia, Morejon, Renfroe too much for Realmuto if he doesn’t want an extension?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think Realmuto is being traded with an understanding he’ll sign an extension with the new team. I get the impression this is a 2-year rental and then he hits the market and maybe he likes his two years with you enough to give you a slight discount when everyone is bidding.

Kiley McDaniel: And that package isn’t insane, I’m not sure SD wants to pay that much and I don’t have a sense for if the market has cratered enough that you have to pay as much as we thought some teams may at the beginning of the offseason

Jeremy: How do you evaluate Yusei Kikuchi against other guys in his (likely) 55 FV bracket, like Chris Paddack, Brent Honeywell or Mitch Keller? Clearly higher ceiling and lower floor, but would that change his FV as well?

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Well-Beered Englishman: If every team in the MLB offered you identical $300M contracts, which team/city would you choose, and why?

Meg Rowley: The following represents a list of places I personally would not mind living. It is not a list meant to denigrate any other city, or your preferences for them. But:

Meg Rowley: 1) Seattle 2) Denver 3) San Diego 4) Phoenix

Gaslamp Gary: How much of an upgrade at 3B would Moustaksa be compared to Machado? I  mean, either one would be an obvious upgrade. But is Mous THAT much worse, considering the price?

Meg Rowley: These projections are early (they don’t yet fold in ZiPS) but Machado is projected for 5.1 wins; Moustakas is projected for 2.7. Kiley’s estimated AAV for Machado was $31 million; Moustakas was $22. Granted, that deal would be much shorter, but you know who would be a really big help on a very good, young Padres team? Manny Machado.

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD WE’RE LIVE PANIC TIME

Matt: Will there be a zips top 100 prospect list like in previous years?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Robby: Do you buy that Kris Bryant is actually fully healthy? Shoulder injuries are scary

Dan Szymborski: Shoulder injuries are! If forced to guess, I’d guess that he was fullly healthy, but not yet full strength

Dan Szymborski: If that makes sense.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Friend: Opinions on Joe Ross vs Erick Fedde? Expectations?

Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s a small sample and I know Ross was coming back from surgery, but over all appearances last year he only struck out 26 batters in 42.1 innings

Jeff Sullivan: 7 in 16 in the majors

Jeff Sullivan: Real potential there for Ross to be a quality 4/5 but at the moment I’m a bigger fan of Fedde

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout call ran late but your next few lists are mostly done now. To your questions

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and in case you’re new here, I’m not gonna comment on other top 100 lists. The comment will be our own list, which is coming later

Bogs: Toss up: Nathaniel Lowe or Peter Alfonso?

Kiley McDaniel: Peter Alonso

Rays for Days: Hi Kiley! Is Wander Franco more so Manny Machado? or More so Carlos Correa?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s neither b/c people will be comparing prospects to him for awhile. Maybe Jose Ramirez is the closest thing in the big league like him?

Meg Rowley: Dear readers, a moment. I have to sort out a small editorial matter and then will be right with you.

Meg Rowley: Appreciate your patience.

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat.

Lunar verLander: Do you think there will be another free agent spring training camp like there was last year?

Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised, although I don’t have a great beat on how effective players thought that was last year, and of course it all depends on the timing of signings.

Meg Rowley: Players are understandably agitated about this winter not course correcting last year. They are increasingly vocal about their objections.

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to HolidayChat

Dan Szymborski: We have a light schedule on the site today, but since I messed up my chat last week, I didn’t want to miss two!

Soxtober2048: What would a reasonable return be for Joc Pederson from the White Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see a useful but limited player with two (I think) arb years

Dan Szymborski: Maybe one interesting guy somewhere at the back of hte top 150?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe someone like Basabe?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Mookie Butts: Why are the Yankees trying to win so much?  It feels like a personal attack.

Jeff Sullivan: It should feel like a personal attack

Jeff Sullivan: Do you remember what happened in 2018

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Yankees liked that very much

Jay Jaffe: Hey gang, it’s my staycation week but a short window opened up in my schedule and I decided to take some questions. So let’s talk some baseball!

Mat: Jayson Stark recently posted his HOF ballot. With his voting for a Closer, DH, Coors players, and PED suspected players, do you believe all HOF barriers have now been broken?

Jay Jaffe: People have been voting for various categories within your list for a long time. We’ve had relievers in the Hall since Hoyt Wilhelm was elected in 1985, with five getting in from 2004 (Eckersley) onward. DH’s — depends on your definition but Paul Molitor (elected 2003) had a plurality of his games there, and now . PEDs, let’s not be naive, there are already users enshrined. And people — not a lot of them, but some — have been voting for Larry Walker since he hit the ballot in 2011.

Now, whether we get our first Coors player in is another matter…

B: Is Joey Votto a hall of famer if he retires today?

Jay Jaffe: From a JAWS standpoint, he’s close enough that I would vote for him — above on peak ( 58.8/46.1/52.4 for him,    66.8/42.7/54.7 for the standards) but with only 1,729 hits, he’d still have the Rule of 2,000 resistance to overcome, and right now that’s pretty daunting.

Alec: Today is his birthday. Do you think Don Zimmer should be in the Hall Of fame as a ambassador of the game?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, just returned from Seattle and some delightful time with Eric and Meg including (huge shocker) great food and also Driveline Pro Day, which we’ll be writing up soon

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around the house trying to decide on which toy to play with while I’m at the computer

Andre: Does Kyle Wright or Ian Anderson have the stuff of a number one in the making?

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t see every #1 starter coming in advance, like Cliff Lee and maybe Jacob deGrom, but we see most of them coming (i.e. they were deemed to have ace upside before they did ace things). So, very unlikely for Wright/Anderson. Both have a chance to be a #2 but I would say #3 is what you’re realistically hoping for, which is a perennial 3 WAR player

Kiley McDaniel: If we say every pro pitcher has some non-zero chance of being an ace or every position player has some chance of putting up a 5 WAR season (call it 0.1%), Wright/Anderson are maybe 1-5%, so don’t plan on it, but they’re still elite in that they’re over 1% and that’s a very small population of pitchers.

Kiley McDaniel: And I’m eye-balling those numbers, but I think that rings true