Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : I keep hearing that the NL central is the best division in baseball. I didn’t believe it, but I added up the projected WAR OF every division, and I’ll be danged but sure nuff, it really was the best. But what really blew my mind was the tiny separation in projected WAR between the #1 team and the #5 team in that division–11.5 WAR, barely half of the next best division. Has there ever before been a divisional projection that tight in the FG era?

Jeff Sullivan: Let me say this: it’s too early to perform this kind of analysis, because the offseason still has a long way to go, and our projections right now are just Steamer instead of Steamer and ZiPS

Jeff Sullivan: And I think what people probably mean is that the NL Central might have five at least decently competitive teams. In the NL East, there should be four competitive teams and the Marlins

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what more the Reds are going to do. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to do anything. But it’ll be fun. The whole NL should be fun — a lot crazier than this year’s upcoming AL

Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat – and as before, this one figures to be Hall of Fame flavored. Towards that end, I’ve got a piece on big year-to-year jumps in the voting centered around Larry Walker, which should be up by the time this chat is over.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Hey there Jay. Did you ever get into Strat-o-Matic or MLB Showdown?

Jay Jaffe: No. I played Strat a couple times but growing up, neither my brother of my other friends were into such things at the time. What I did play a bit of was  Avalon Hill’s Baseball Strategy, and a ton of Strategic Simulations Inc.’s Computer Baseball, which I wrote about for Michael Clair’s blog-a-thon a few years ago http://oldtimefamilybaseball.com/post/73880788748/the-basement-tapes-b…

Jay Jaffe: Sorry, I had to spend a couple minutes in Google tracking that down, and now my lunch — banh mi from Hanco’s — is here. So if things are as slow-starting as Larry Walker’s Hall of Fame candidacy, that’s why.

Brodie: So Grandal only got one year… looks like a misread the market pretty badly to offer four years…

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it was a misread of Grandal’s to turn down four years — if that was actually offered, and with Heyman, Nightengale and Rosenthal all reporting that he did have one, in the 4/$50-60M range (see https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/yasmani-grandal), then I’ll take that as solid. But he gets to play for a contender, in a hitter-friendly park, so if he stays healthy, he’ll get another shot next year without being attached to a qualifying offer.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone! After a quick technical issues, we’re off and running

Kiley McDaniel: The weather is now solid in ATL and I might go outside and rake some leaves later. Red Sox list is finalized and Eric and I are writing up the capsules today

Harris: Very surprising to only see Matt Vierling in the honorable mentions on the Phillies list. Could he make his way on by mid season?

Kiley McDaniel: Most 5th rounders don’t make the list the summer after they sign. There’s some tools there, so if he performs again, he’ll be on there

Larry: What do you expect from Amed Rosario this year? O/U 2 WAR?

Kiley McDaniel: Over, still big tools and made some 2nd half progress

Meg Rowley: Hello everyone, and welcome to my first chat of 2019.

Meg Rowley: Happy New Year to all!

Jim: What will the White Sox get from Boston for Kelvin Herrera in 2 weeks?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think it’ll be that quick of a move, but barring a bevy of other signings, I wouldn’t expect him to be in a White Sox uniform come the end of July if he’s at all decent.

Meg Rowley: (prepares to see immediate trade news break)

Wade: Hi Meg, can something please happen

Dan Szymborski: A wild Szym approaches!

Dan Szymborski: A Szym draws near!

Dan Szymborski: Command?

Dan Szymborski: The Szym attacks!

Dan Szymborski: Thy hits decreased to 45.

Dan Szymborski: (I’m just going to do this for an hour)

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, an unusual time to chat but here we are.

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is watching the front yard studiously, barking at anyone that dares walk by on the sidewalk

Kiley McDaniel: The Phillies list went up earlier this week, the Mets list is done but will go up Monday and we’ve a good ways down the road on BOS and TB for next week

Kiley McDaniel: Draft list also is basically done but not time sensitive, so that will go up soon enough along with a new podcast

Tommyboy: With the announcement of Koby Perez as international scouting director, how long do you think it’ll take for the Os to be players in the international market?

Blazeball: Any word on late bloomers in the int’l market that the Orioles could sign?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where Harper or Machado are going to sign

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know when Harper or Machado are going to sign

stever20: So with the news from Jim Bowden that the Nats have increased their offer to Bryce Harper- do you think they are now the favorites to sign him?

Jeff Sullivan: Let us first consider whether or not that report is accurate or credible

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon, happy new year, and welcome to my first chat of 2019. Sorry for the delay — the payoff of a long game of phone tag came due. Anyway, let’s get started…

Sirras: Do you have any baseball-related resolutions for the new year?

Jay Jaffe: 1) More time at the ballpark — figuring out child care coverage of a 2-year-old when both my wife and I are working within the confines of daily baseball coverage is a trick we have yet to master.

2) Spread out my viewing among more teams.

Travis: Given Larry Walker’s (potential?) surge in balloting so far, and assuming he finishes above 50% – still more likely for him to go in via the Today’s Game committee? Or are we saying there’s a chance?

Jay Jaffe: We’re really kind of in uncharted territory here.

Jay Jaffe: we’ve never seen a surge from 20-something to 75%+ within a 2-year span, and we really haven’t seen even anybody recent get in from mid-50s to 75% in one year. I wrote about big jumps in the modern era of voting history (1966 onward) in connection to the candidacies of Bagwell and Raines a few years back (https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/hall-of-fame-ballot-vote-biggest-jum…) and the closest analogue I can come up with is Luis Aparicio, who went from 36.9% to 84.6% in three years. And that was years 3-6 within a 15-year cycle.

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, family was just packing up and leaving so had to see them off. First Christmas in the new house is now completed and it’s still standing. Now to finish up some NL East lists, finalize the draft update, make plans for NYE and chat with you people

Kiley McDaniel: I think the lists will go Phillies then Mets then it looks like we’re headed to the AL East.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn going to be the first strictly 1b to go in the top 5 in a long time?

Santa’s Marginal: Right now- Witt Jr or Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s how it looks right now re: Vaughn. Again, here’s the current draft board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…) and the update will just be sliding 10-12 names around and expanding the end of it, mostly moving guys around in the middle of the list.  Vaughn is in the 50 FV tier behind the clear #1 Rutschman and that 2 thru 12 could be in a lot of orders. Since Vaughn is a track record college hitter, he’s probably in the top half of that tier, but it’s still super early, so guys will move with performance in season.

Kiley McDaniel: And on Abrams/Witt, its probably about 50/50 in the industry right now and they’re both in that tier. I think we’ll basically have them back-to-back in the update, so it’s more deferring the decision until we get more info.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning’s three-team exchange!

AJ: Odds harper ends up in LA?

Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing — 40%?

Xolo: Did the Rangers just give Profar away?