Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. Today I’m celebrating the four-year anniversary of the day I proposed to Emma Span, somewhere on the gorgeous grounds of the Getty Museum overlooking Los Angeles (we saw Clayton Kershaw pitch later that night), mourning the death of Aretha Franklin by playing her 1971 Fillmore West concert in the background ( spin it but only after your goosebumps from this, her cover of “The Weight,” subsides ), and waiting with anticipation as the editorial elves tackle an epic article near and dear to my heart, about the 1998 Yankees, whose 20-year anniversary is being celebrated in the Bronx this weekend.

Anyway, on with the show…

Bo: After reading your piece on Acuna, then Dan’s piece on ROY, I’m inclined to believe if he keeps up anything close to what he’s done since the break, he’ll take it home. Agree?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the last chapter of the race between Acuña and Soto has been written, by any means, and I do have at least some concern about the lingering effects of the former’s unsolicited, bush-league plunking by Jose Ureña last night. X-rays were negative, but until he’s back and mashing, I’m holding my breath.

Concrete fan: Do you consider the AL West a true division title race?

Jay Jaffe: The Astros’ lead has shrunk to two games, so it sure as hell is a race now.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Ureña will miss one or two starts, the Braves potentially miss their star rookie while everyone else potentially misses great highlights and an amazing ROY race. Obviously the league is not doing a good job handling the externalities of head hunting. Should other people (ownership, manager?) be punished?

tb.25: 12:05?! You’re turning into those radio shows that start 5 minutes late to get listeners tuning in at the top of the hour to listen to commercials

Kiley McDaniel: You’ve figured us out

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around but I am here to chat with you people. Lets see what you’ve got for me today

D Money: Rank these guys – Madrigal, India, Kelenic & Swaggerty

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta have one of these every week. All of our rankings are sortable and available for your perusal here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

Keefths: What do you make of what Nolan Gorman has done thus far?
Is the boy legit ?

Meg Rowley: Hello! Welcome to the chat!

mike sixel: I’m sorry I had fun at work today….won’t happen again…..

Meg Rowley: I assume this is in reference to David Bote.

Meg Rowley: One thing is, bat flips are fine. Bat flips can be great! Bat flips when one has one on a walk-off grand slam are terrific.

Meg Rowley: Another thing is, we could collectively be more selective about who we give the time of day to.

Mike: Are DRA and DRA- ever coming to Fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski: I think this is a chat!

CamdenWarehouse: no poops today?

Dan Szymborski: Carson set this one and doesn’t set up the poop and peanuts. I have a competing 2:45 one, we’ll see what happens at 2:45!

Matt: I think this is a late chat*

Dbo: You this is a chat, what if its just a bunch of robots trying to prove they aren’t robots

Dan Szymborski: EAT TURING, SCUM!

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: Just finished podding. Good to go now

Bork: Hello, friend!

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

Mookie Betts: So are MVP voters still too old school to see that I am in fact the one and only deserving MVP? Because in 20 games less I have done more than the rest!

Jay Jaffe: Hey gang , and welcome to this week’s chat. Apologies for forgetting to reschedule last week’s chat — because of the July 31 trade deadline, I swapped toddler care days with my mother-in-law, who is clutch (I normally take Tuesdays), then forgot how that would impact my normal schedule. Anyway, the deadline, my trip to Cooperstown, and my discovery of an awesome new sandwich shop in DUMBO (Untamed) are now under my belt, and we are all (metaphorically) richer for it. Onward…

Scott: Did you catch any of Fiers start yesterday? I thought he looked great and might even be a WC starter candidate

Jay Jaffe: I saw a bit of it, mostly as background while I finished up a forthcoming piece on Felix Hernandez. Fiers has bedeviled the Dodgers before, no-hitting them in 2015  soon after being acquired by an Astro. He’s a streaky pitcher, and I’d guess he’s got a shot at starting the WC game if he looks like he did last night

Gerb : Hey Jay, so back at the end of May I mentioned that Jose was on pace for a GOAT 3B season, and then you wrote a great article about it! At the time he had accrued 3.7 WAR through 244 PAs. I just wanted point out that since then he has added 3.8 WAR through his next 252. Are we at the point that 10 wins in a more likely than not?? Also apparently he’s decided he’s going 40/40

Jay Jaffe: Jose Ramirez’s ROS projection is for 2.0 WAR, so if you assume that’s the center of the distribution of a large number of outcomes, then he’s got a decent shot at 10. Dan Szymborski is a better person to ask about probabilities though, especially as he’s the guy with the projections. Regardless, he’s having an MVP-caliber season, and the longer Mike Trout sits with his wrist thing, the more possible that becomes

Nelson: Hey Jay, Max Sherzer sure seems on a HF path right? Just the hardware alone should put him in

Kiley McDaniel: Hello! I’m now stationed home for a nice stretch after seeing East Coast Pro (2019/2020 draft class high school showcase in Hoover, AL) and Eric is currently taking the tail end of HS showcase season on at Area Codes in Long Beach, then the PG Game in San Diego.

Kiley McDaniel: Draft stuff takes a break after the Cape wraps up so the chillins can go back to school, then some HS stuff fires back up in october for a few events before they basically disappear until Late Jan/early Feb

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be taking in some FSL, including seeing Brusdar tomorrow after being rained out twice already.

Kiley McDaniel: If you want to know where we rank any notable figure in non MLB baseball, we have a fresh update of THE BOARD right here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly for the intro, I’m working on some stuff related to what should change about baseball–so throw some stuff at me here. I’m thinking changing the draft, int’l signings, marketing the players, salary cap/floor vs. luxury tax, blackouts on MLB.tv, pace of play, all the stuff that bothers you lemme hear it

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: After a couple weeks of swapping stuff around this should (*should*) be the normal chat time now, which will avoid us having two chats at the same time.

Mike from Tempe: Is there any chance of getting minor league splits into the Fangraphs stat pages? Only reason I still use BR, and I’d rather stick with FG.

Meg Rowley: I will ask. Also, B-R is great and very deserving of your clicks!

john cale: rougned odor has a 225 wRC+ in the second half. maybe 24 year olds can still figure things out, after all.

Meg Rowley: Sure they can! They’re bright young things full of promise! We’ve also seen Odor be good for a stretch and then just be dreadful before.

Travis Sawchik: Happy Monday

Travis Sawchik: All three AL division leaders now have 92.5% or better division odds

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started, shall we?

Kiermaierkegaard: Hey Travis! Are there any broader trends we can forecast from what the Brewers are doing defensively? “Positionless” infields etc…? What Stearns and Counsell are doing seems to be working, and it’s fascinating to me.

Travis Sawchik: I suspect the Brewers are concerned with cramming as much power into their infield as possible and taking advantage of a strikeout environment that has eroded defensive changes by 20% over the last decade. It is interesting!

ZZ Bottom: AL wildcard race the most compelling story rest of season?