Nobody likes a quick exit from the playoffs, but a brief October cameo would have been an especial humiliation for the 2025 Detroit Tigers. After spending much of the season fighting for the league’s best record, and collecting a 14-game divisional lead at one point, the Tigers went nine games under .500 in the second half. Not only was that bad enough to throw away the division title, Detroit nearly missed the playoffs altogether, only squeezing in thanks to a tiebreak advantage over the Houston Astros. So Thursday’s 6-3 win in Game 3 of the Wild Card series must come as a relief, especially given the measure of revenge that comes with beating Cleveland.
Jack Flaherty got the call in Game 3, his first playoff appearance for the Tigers. There had to be some trepidation about Flaherty, given that his last quality start came back in mid-August. While his 4 2/3 innings of work were short on highlight moments, and he allowed three 100 mph liners that fortunately found leather instead of grass or dirt, Flaherty confined the hits to two-out rallies, leaving Cleveland little room for any bunting or other little-ball shenanigans until the fourth inning. A George Valera double and a José Ramírez single got the Guardians on the board in the fourth, but the danger ended when J-Ram was caught stealing and Chase DeLauter hit into a double play. Flaherty did at least avoid angering the cruel deity that governs predictions; last offseason, he famously said that the Tigers would have defeated the Guardians in last year’s playoffs if he hadn’t been traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s been six days since Mason Miller let somebody hit the baseball. Actually, that’s not quite true. Until the right-hander caught Michael Busch with a literal back-foot slider in the eighth-inning of yesterday’s Wild Card matchup between the Padres and the Cubs, it had indeed been five days, three relief appearances, and 11 batters since anybody came to the plate against Miller and did something other than strike out. However, six of those 11 victims managed to get their bats on the ball. Three of them did it twice. It’s just that over the past week, nobody has been able to figure out how to square up one of Miller’s disappearing sliders or 102 mph fastballs – yes, his four-seamer has averaged 102 mph over the last three outings – well enough to achieve so much as a tapper back to the mound. Busch’s unfortunate foot snapped the streak at 11, but it did nothing to look Miller look more hittable.
In a fun twist, the all-time record for consecutive strikeouts (or at least since 1961, when full play-by-play data became available) belongs to Miller’s teammate Jeremiah Estrada. Estrada struck out a 13 straight batters across three appearances just last May. In fact, he struck all 13 of them out swinging.
That’s a pleasurably tidy play log. Estrada’s streak only ended because, when he entered the game on May 31 against the Royals, manager Mike Schildt intentionally walked the first batter he faced.
Anytime Miller is on the mound, the general feeling among spectators is astonishment that anyone ever manages to put the ball in play. He just threw an immaculate inning. Since his debut in 2023, Miller has allowed just 0.55 hits per inning, the lowest rate among all 473 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. And now, following a 2025 season in which his 45.2% whiff rate ranked second among all pitchers, Miller has ascended to a higher plane. His whiff rate over the past three games has rocketed up to an absurd 61.9%.
Now that the streak has run its course, it’s time to celebrate the six marvels who managed to connect with one of his pitches, no matter how inconsequential the contact. We’ll count down, from the weakest contact to the strongest, starting with Moisés Ballesteros getting the smallest amount of baseball possible it’s possible to get. You can just hear the sound of the foul tip before the ball hits the glove.
Honestly, it’s impressive that Ballesteros got enough of this pitch to make a sound at all. This is a 102.6 mph fastball well above the strike zone. It came in at a height of 3.76 feet, and this season, Miller ran a whiff rate of 55.9% on fastballs 3.7 feet or higher. Even pitchers who don’t throw 102 lean on four-seamers above the zone because it’s so hard for batters both to lay off it and to hit it. This pitch is why we care about vertical approach angle. This pitch is why we’ll never forget the climax of A League of their Own. The pitch to Ballesteros technically went down as a whiff because Statcast counts foul tips for strike three as whiffs rather than fouls, but we don’t have to take that away from him. He gently brushed the baseball, and for that we honor him.
Next up is Dansby Swanson, who got a tiny bit more of the pitch and a whole lot more of catcher Freddy Fermin.
You may think Miller fooled Swanson with a 2-2 slider away, and he may well have done so. It’s also equally possible that Swanson really was trying to keep an eye out for the slider. It’s just that when you know you might see 104 up above the strike zone, trying to look for the slider and actually staying back long enough to be on time for it are two very different propositions. The shortstop was just able to slow down enough to throw the bat head at the ball. It was a great accomplishment, and because of it, Fermin will surely hold a lifelong grudge.
Here’s another two-strike slider that just barely avoided ending up as strike three. Ahead 1-2, Miller missed high and inside to Seiya Suzuki, and this shows you why pitchers tend to think hard in, soft away.
Batters need to catch the ball much further in front of the plate when it’s on the inside, so the fact that Suzuki was way out in front of this pitch didn’t hurt him too much. He still caught the smallest piece of it – so small that he barely kept it from sticking in the catcher’s mitt – but at least he caught that piece with the barrel of his bat. Did he barrel this pitch up? Absolutely not. Did he strike out anyway on the very next pitch? You bet he did.
We’re done with the foul tips now. Up next, we have a group of four regular-looking foul balls. These ones stretch back to Miller’s last regular season appearance against the Diamondbacks on September 27, and they’re all just fastballs that nobody could catch up to.
This is why pitching coaches tell pitchers aim for the middle of the zone and dare batters to hit it, and this is the benefit of throwing harder than just about anyone who has ever lived. Miller didn’t necessarily fool anybody here. They were geared up for the fastball and they got it. It was just too much to handle. Swanson, Connor Kaiser, Carson Kelly, and even contact maven Geraldo Perdomo are doing all they can just to slap this ball into the seats on the opposite side and live to see another pitch. Swanson took a robust hack and looked out to the mound as if to say, “I’m on to you, Mason Miller.”
He was not, in fact, onto Miller, but you can see why this foul felt like a victory.
Now we’re into the really impressive fouls. Here’s Kelly again, very nearly keeping the ball in the field of play!
Kelly is out ahead of a slider on the inside corner here, and he sends a weak popup to the right side that just drifts out of play despite Luis Arraez’s heroic efforts to reel it in. Seriously, Arraez tossed himself over a thick concrete barrier. He must have ended up with a serious bruise, and he took his frustration out on the netting. I wrote about this exact kind of batted ball back in May. Normally when you’re ahead of a pitch, you hit it to the pull side, but sometimes you’re so far ahead that you have to drop your bat head to slow down. At that point, you can’t help but pop it up the other way. If Kelly had been above the ball, he would have hit a weak grounder to the left side – or, more likely, fouled it straight down and off his own foot – but since he was underneath it, he came just a few feet (or one gust of wind) from achieving the impossible dream of facing Mason Miller and coming away with a weak popout.
Last up is Geraldo Perdomo, long one of the best hitters in baseball when it comes to making contact, and more recently, somehow one of the best hitters in baseball, period. Here’s Perdomo genuinely rifling a slider to the pull side.
This ball came off the bat at 100 mph. Perdomo was still way out in front of it. It was probably foul by a good 25 feet at the moment it passed first base. Still, that’s the best contact anyone has made against Miller in nearly a week. Perdomo would go on to strike out like all the others, but he can take pride in knowing that he’s the last player ever to actually hit the ball hard off Miller.
Dillon Dingler is developing into one of baseball’s better catchers. Playing in his first full big league season, the 27-year-old Detroit Tigers backstop banged out 13 home runs while slashing .278/.327/.425 with a 109 wRC+ over 469 plate appearances. Moreover, he was worth six DRS and posted well-above-average framing numbers. His 4.1 WAR ranked third best among junior circuit catchers.
Dingler’s defensive chops extend to his game-calling, which is done in collaboration with Detroit’s pitching group. Preparation is a team strength — last year’s pitching chaos didn’t succeed by accident — and not just because pitching coach Chris Fetter is widely regarded as an adept game-planner. The entire coaching staff is thorough, and so too is the former Ohio State Buckeye, who squatted behind the dish in 115 games this season. (Dingler also filled in at the DH position from time to time.)
The pregame pitcher meetings that precede every game was on my mind when I sat down with Dingler on the final day of the regular season. I was primarily interested in learning how the Tigers go about them, including just what role the catchers play in the dissemination of information. What I found out is that the Tigers — ditto Dingler himself — differ somewhat from most other teams. Not having both catchers in the room, which is the common practice, is an example.
“We do it as the starting catcher, the pitcher, our catching coach, Ryan Sanko, Chris Fetter, and [assistant pitching coach] Robin Lund,” explained Dingler. “That’s pretty much it. It’s usually a smaller group.”
The first inning was a harbinger. The eighth inning featured an offensive explosion for a team that all too often struggles to score. The Cleveland Guardians plated five runs to break a 1-1 tie and went on to beat a thoroughly frustrated Detroit Tigers team 6-1. The season-saving rally evened the best-of-three Wild Card series at one apiece, setting up a decisive finale for tomorrow afternoon in Cleveland.
The Tigers had their chances. Make that many chances — the first of which came as fans at Progressive Field were just settling into their seats. Parker Meadows pulled a groundball into the four-hole that second baseman Brayan Rocchio could only smother, giving Detroit the first of its 17 baserunners (yes, 17) on the day. Center fielder Chase DeLauter — playing in the first inning of his first big league game — then lost a battle with the sun and wind, dropping a fly ball and giving the Tabbies an early opportunity to open up a lead. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee survived the little-fault-of-his-own threat. Three strikeouts later, the game went to the home half scoreless.
It didn’t remain scoreless for long. Two batters in, George Valera — a rookie with just 17 major league games under his belt — took Detroit starter Casey Mize deep. It was the first of three Guardians home runs on the day, and while it gave them an early lead, it paled in importance to the two that came later.
One of the game’s biggest plays took place in the fourth inning. With the bases juiced courtesy of a Riley Greene double and a pair of free passes, Javier Báez laced a two-out single to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead… or so it seemed. Zach McKinstry was thrown out trying to go first to third, and the out was recorded just before Dillon Dingler crossed the plate with what would have been the second tally. Initially ruled safe, McKinstry was ultimately determined to be out per video review — this on DeLauter’s first career outfield assist. Read the rest of this entry »
Charles LeClaire, Jayne Kamin, Kim Klement Neitzel, and Jerome Miron – Imagn Images
This week, the baseball world turns its attention to the first round of the playoffs. It’s what we’ve spent the past six months waiting for. Nevertheless, the past 48 hours or so have brought a flurry of news events involving people and teams that (cue sad trombone sound effect) will not be taking part. Since the season ended on Sunday, seven teams made announcements about managers who were on the hot seat and/or wobbly chair:
Wrigley Field and its patrons are accustomed to day baseball, as the club still honors its once electricity-free history by playing Friday home games in the afternoon rather than at night. And so despite having not hosted playoff baseball since 2020 (and a playoff win since 2017), the scene on Wild Card Tuesday, a day that saw Chicago bathed in gorgeously clear fall light while still enjoying lovely late-summer temperatures, was a familiar one, as the Cubs dispatched the visiting Padres 3-1 in a brisk Game 1. The afternoon’s action was headlined by back-to-back home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, as well as the perfect 4 2/3 innings worked by the Chicago bullpen.
Much like ABC’s broadcast, both offenses struggled to make sustained noise (was anyone else’s volume constantly fluctuating?) in this game. The teams combined for just 10 total hits, and the Cubs didn’t have a single hit with a runner in scoring position all afternoon. Under the hood, it was the Padres who made more frequent, high-quality contact, even though they managed just four hits. San Diego was responsible for 14 of the game’s 21 hard-hit (95 mph or more off the bat) balls in play, many of which were struck right at Cubs defenders. Read the rest of this entry »
As somebody who watched almost every single Anthony Volpe defensive play this year, I can confidently say that for a lot of the season, he didn’t look comfortable attacking the ball. What I mean by that is this: In his couple of steps right before fielding the ball, he didn’t look like he was moving in rhythm. He led the AL with 19 errors, 13 of which came while throwing.
Last season, he was one of the best defenders in the sport. What he lacks in top-end athleticism and arm strength he made up for with supreme footwork, instincts, and pace. He doesn’t have the luxury of a rocket arm, making all those features even more important. This season, the quality of his footwork around the ball was inconsistent and led to mistakes on plays he made consistently through the first two seasons of his career, both with his glove and the accuracy of his arm.
Some of Volpe’s defensive woes could be related to his health. He played through what was later revealed to be a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder, an injury that occurred on May 3, when he felt a pop in the joint while diving for a ball against the Rays. He finally received a cortisone shot to address the injury on September 10, more than four months later. Only three of his 19 errors came before he hurt his shoulder, and he didn’t make an error in his 12 games after returning to the field from the shot. Although the injury wasn’t to his throwing arm, it still could have affected his throws. Shortstops use their left arm as a stabilizer to lead them in the correct direction while throwing. Think of the basic mechanics you’re taught as a kid: Point your glove at the target, step at the target, then throw the ball. If your non-throwing shoulder is hurt, you may not be able to use it to properly begin the mechanics for an accurate throw. Many times, shortstops are fielding the ball while moving and don’t have time to plant their feet and step directly toward first base before releasing the ball. In these instances when the lower half of the body is neutralized some, it’s even more important to have a healthy non-throwing arm to direct the ball. That’s especially true for shortstops like Volpe who don’t have strong throwing arms and rely on a quick release to compensate. There’s no way to know how much the shoulder was bothering him, but that is likely how it would have hindered his play.
If the shot did the trick, and if the shoulder truly was the primary cause for Volpe’s poor fielding, then the Yankees should be in a much better position entering the postseason, when making one play could mean the difference between advancing and getting eliminated. He’ll be at shortstop tonight at 6:08 p.m. ET, when the Yankees host the Red Sox in Game 1 of the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium.
With all that in mind, let’s break down Volpe’s defensive season to get an understanding of what went wrong and how, maybe, it could all be going right again at the most important time of the year. Read the rest of this entry »
After a thrilling end to the regular season that saw the final NL Wild Card spot and both the AL East and Central division crowns come down to the last day, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers, and many of the game’s brightest stars. And while the bracket’s top seeds could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 25 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds here. Happy playoffs! Read the rest of this entry »
The Cleveland Guardians are playing postseason baseball for the seventh time in the past 10 seasons, and it’s not because of a prolific offense. The low-budget AL Central club doesn’t score a high number of runs, but neither do its opponents. The Guardians allowed the third fewest runs in the junior circuit this year, and only the Houston Astros have been stingier over the past decade. Cleveland’s reputation as a pitching factory is well-earned.
How do Guardians hurlers view the organization’s pitching group, which is fronted at the big league level by pitching coach Carl Willis and includes assistants Brad Goldberg and Joe Torres, as well as bullpen coach Caleb Longshore? I recently asked that question to a quartet of Cleveland pitchers, three of whom are on the current staff, and another who was on the team prior to this summer’s trade deadline.
Before we hear their thoughts, though, it makes sense to touch on the 26-year-old right-hander who is slated to take the mound in this afternoon’s Wild Card Series opener against the Detroit Tigers. I didn’t talk to Gavin Williams about the Guardians pitching group, but I did ask him how his game has grown since we first spoke two years ago. Read the rest of this entry »
For the third time in the past eight seasons, and the sixth time since 1999, one of the game’s most storied rivalries has spilled over into the playoffs. In the matchup of the top two AL Wild Card seeds, the Yankees (94-68) host the Red Sox (89-73) for a best-of-three series at Yankee Stadium. Though they won 11 of their last 12 to erase a five-game lead in the AL East by the Blue Jays, the Yankees lost their season series tiebreaker to Toronto, 8-5, bumping them into the Wild Card round, making their road to return to the World Series that much harder.
The Red Sox have taken the past three postseason matchups between the two clubs, most recently beating the Yankees in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game at Fenway Park and before that the 2018 Division Series. You have to dial back to 2003 for the last time the Yankees defeated the Red Sox in October — with current manager Aaron Boone hitting a walk-off homer off Tim Wakefield to send New York to the World Series.
In terms of more recent and somewhat more relevant history, the Red Sox did win the season series, 9-4, and took seven out of nine at Yankee Stadium. That said, the Yankees won three of the final four games between the two teams. Read the rest of this entry »
