Baseball suffers from the same fundamental contradiction as every spectator sport. It is an entertainment product, a work of narrative nonfiction, if you like. A compelling narrative must adhere to certain norms and strictures; even when expectations are subverted, the audience responds best when those expectations are built up first.

The players and managers who act out the on-field drama, and the front office personnel who hire and direct them, aren’t in the business of storytelling. They’re in the business of problem-solving. That problem: How to put runners on base and, once there, to advance them home. And to prevent one’s opponent from doing the same.

The more we know about this problem, the greater detail in which it’s studied, the greater the risk that a solution will emerge. There might be more than one way to skin a proverbial cat, but if one method emerges as the most efficient, everyone will adopt it. And what’s the fun in that? Read the rest of this entry »

You know Shohei and Clayton and Freddie and Mookie. Teo and Will Smith and Blake Snell and Roki. But do you recall the least heralded Dodger of all? Well, that’s not exactly fair, and I didn’t even name all the famous Dodgers, but here’s the point: I’m writing about a Dodger who isn’t one of the guys who seem to steal every headline.

Meet Andy Pages, the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder. A year ago, Pages was just another hopeful, the latest in a line of plus-bat, where-can-he-play-defense-though options cycling through the corners in Chavez Ravine. Pages’ prospect reports paint a clear picture: a swing built for lift, plenty of swing-and-miss, and sneaky athleticism that exploded after Pages returned from shoulder surgery. In 116 games of big league play, he took over center field (mostly out of necessity — he looked stretched there at times) and posted a league average batting line, though without the home run power that evaluators expected from him.

If you could freeze time there and give the Dodgers the option of having exactly that Pages for the next five years, I think they would have begrudgingly accepted it. Teams as full of stars as Los Angeles’ current squad need role players to fill the cracks in the roster, and outfielders who can handle center and hit at least okay are always in high demand. That isn’t to say that there weren’t encouraging signs – Pages’ athleticism was better than advertised and he showed plus bat speed – but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and he was already an excellent cog in the machine even without fully unlocking his power.

Flash-forward to this season. Pages started the year playing center and batting ninth. That’s the lineup spot for a complementary piece, a defensive specialist or fourth outfielder. He started slow, with a 70 wRC+ over his first month of play. The Dodgers didn’t have better options defensively, and in fact, Pages looked downright smooth out there, both to my eyes and to defensive model grades. When your team posts a collective 126 wRC+ for the months of March and April (for the months of May and June so far, too — this team is pretty good!), you can live with a below-average hitter playing a tough defensive position, so the Dodgers kept running Pages out there, slow start and all. And that brings us to April 22, when Pages got hot and didn’t stop. Read the rest of this entry »

As June gets underway, the American League playoff picture is as muddy as ever — 12 teams are within 4 1/2 games of a playoff berth right now. Meanwhile, in the National League, there’s a pretty clear line between the haves and the have-nots, but even if the playoff picture isn’t as crowded, the races should provide plenty of drama this summer.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Tigers and Cubs battled through a competitive and entertaining series last weekend, with Detroit taking two of the three games. It’s far too early to call this a World Series preview, but it’s certainly a possibility with the way these two teams are playing. The Tigers went 4-3 in their week of games against the two Chicago clubs, and their bullpen blew leads in all three of their losses. For now, this seems like more of a blip than a true concern — the Detroit bullpen ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.29 WPA, even if the peripherals (3.81 FIP, 3.71 SIERA) aren’t quite as strong — but it’s something to monitor as the season progresses.

The Mets split their NLCS rematch against the Dodgers in Los Angeles last week, with three of the four games being decided by one run, and then went to Colorado and swept the hapless Rockies. Pete Alonso was a one-man wrecking crew; he blasted five home runs and now has 17 on the season. New York has gone 12-3 since falling to three games out of first place with a loss on May 23, and as the Phillies continue to struggle, the Mets begin this week ahead 4 1/2 games in the NL East.

In their first matchup against the Red Sox this season, the Yankees lost two of the three games and allowed 27 runs in the series. Earlier in the week, New York placed closer Luke Weaver on the injured list with a hamstring strain, but the team did get back dynamic infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.. After missing over a month with an oblique injury, Chisholm went 8-for-21 with two home runs and three stolen bases.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Dodgers. They’re 10-12 over their last 22 games and neither their offense nor their pitching can find much consistency right now. Los Angeles collected 19 total hits in its first two games against the Cardinals last weekend but somehow managed to score just a single run, going 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers salvaged the series with seven runs on Sunday in a 7-3 win, but their bats are still having a relatively rough go of things since their 18-run outburst against the Yankees the previous Saturday. The concerns about their lineup pale in comparison to the injury woes of their pitching staff, as Tony Gonsolin became the latest pitcher to go down with elbow discomfort. The good news is the Dodgers activated relievers Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates off the IL last weekend and spun an under-the-radar trade for former All-Star closer Alexis Díaz, whom the Reds optioned to Triple-A after a disastrous April. While the Dodgers are letting Díaz work things out in the minors before recalling him, the returns of Kopech and Yates should help to bolster the bullpen; the starting rotation, though, is still spread dangerously thin. Things won’t get any easier for the Dodgers this week, when they face the Padres and Giants for the first time this season. Both teams are just a game behind Los Angeles in the NL West standings.

The Astros have gotten hot at exactly the right moment. Their surge has coincided with a Mariners slide; Houston overtook Seattle in the AL West standings in late May and padded the lead last week. The Astros have gone 11-5 over their last 16 games, a stretch that began with taking three of four from Seattle, and are now 2 1/2 games up in the division. Jeremy Peña continues to lead the offense during this hot streak; he collected 10 hits last week and had a 13-game hit streak snapped on Sunday.

The Rays and Blue Jays continued their rise up the standings last week; Tampa Bay swept the Rangers and won two out of three against the Marlins, while Toronto took both of its series against the Phillies and Twins. In 16 games since May 23, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is slashing .349/.388/.825 with seven home runs and a 242 wRC+. A resurgent George Springer, who smacked a game-winning home run on Saturday, has been the most consistent run producer in the Blue Jays lineup.

The Giants tallied two more walk-off victories last week, bringing their season total to eight. All seven games of their games last week were decided by one run, and they haven’t played a game that was settled by more than three runs since May 23. San Francisco is now 22-11 in home games this season, one of the best home records in baseball. After a 5-2 homestand, the Giants return to the road with a 38-28 overall record, which puts them just a game behind the first-place Dodgers in the NL West.

The Phillies are phree-phalling right now, with just one win in their last 10 games. That lone win came in their series opener against the Blue Jays last Tuesday, and then over the weekend they were swept by the last-place Pirates. The Philadelphia offense went especially cold, managing to score just one run in four of its last five games. To make matters worse, Bryce Harper was placed on the IL with a wrist injury over the weekend, though it sounds like it might be a minor issue.

Injuries have become an issue for the Twins again, only this time, it’s in their starting rotation. Both Pablo López and Zebby Matthews were placed on the IL last week with shoulder injuries; López is expected to miss at least two months, while it’s unclear as of this writing how long Matthews might be out. Thankfully, Royce Lewis is healthy and snapped an 0-for-28 stretch with a hit on Tuesday, and then notched six more after that.

The three teams in this tier all feature flawed lineups with no more than one or two superstars who are tasked with putting the rest of the offense on their backs. The Guardians couldn’t handle the Yankees and Astros last week, though José Ramírez continued to rake. He carries a 34-game on-base streak into Monday’s series opener against the Reds, and he has at least one hit in all but two of those games. Overall, he’s slashing .333/.392/.556 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 163 wRC+. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. is catching fire after a so-so month of May; though the Royals went just 3-3 last week, Witt brought his season wRC+ up to 126 after going 9-for-25 with two homers. Kansas City also called up top prospect Jac Caglianone last week to bolster what has been one of the worst offenses in baseball. Seattle had a rough week, getting swept by the Orioles and losing two of three against the Angels, but Cal Raleigh bashed three more home runs, extending his major league-leading total to 26.

It was the worst-case scenario for Corbin Burnes and the Diamondbacks. First, the ace left his June 1 start with an elbow injury, and then on Friday, Arizona announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the rest of the season and most likely all of 2026 as well. It’s a deflating blow to a club that’s been struggling to keep up in the extremely competitive NL West. The rotation has had its fair share of troubles this year, and Burnes’ injury is the biggest one yet.

In a wide open AL playoff picture, it’s not too late for the Rangers to get back into the race, especially if their offense starts to click. To that end, after an abysmal start to the season, Marcus Semien is 15-for-29 with three home runs and a 324 wRC+ over his last nine games. Let’s see if his teammates follow his lead and start mashing this week, when Texas visits Minnesota for three games before returning home to face the White Sox over the weekend.

However, it probably is too late for the Orioles to recover from their disappointing first two months, but at least they’re playing much better baseball recently. They lost their weekend series to the Athletics, but before that, they had gone 9-2 over their previous 11 games. They activated Colton Cowser off the IL last Monday and should be getting Jordan Westburg back from his hamstring injury any day now.

It might be time to admit that it’s just not the Braves’ year. They were swept by the Diamondbacks and the Giants last week, and their seven-game losing streak has dropped them to 14 games back in the NL East and 9.5 games back in the NL Wild Card standings. On Thursday, they blew a six-run against Arizona in the top of the ninth inning, and then lost back-to-back walk-offs against San Francisco on Friday and Saturday. More concerning has to be the ongoing struggles of Spencer Strider; he lost his two starts last week, both his ERA and FIP are up over five, and his Stuff+ is down about 20 points from his last healthy season in 2023.

The Athletics snapped out of a month-long tailspin with a series win over the Orioles last weekend. The A’s peaked on May 5 when they walked off Seattle and pushed their record to 20-16. After that, they lost 24 of their next 27 games before finally beating the Twins 14-3 on Thursday, exactly one month after the high point of their season. During that 3-24 stretch, they allowed 7.8 runs per game, by far the worst mark in the majors.

Not only did the Rockies finally win a series last week, they secured a three-game sweep of the Marlins! It was their first series win since September of last year and the first time they had won more than two games in a row this season. That winning streak was quickly snapped, when the Mets swept Colorado at home over the weekend. The Rockies are a truly terrible team, no matter how hard Davy Andrews tries to make them look good, but for the sake of all the loyal fans who somehow still show up to their games, hopefully last week’s series won’t be the only one they win in 2025.

I humbly request that you watch the following home run three times. During your initial pass, I merely ask that you permit yourself to marvel at the power of Pete Alonso. Exclaim, should you feel so moved. This level of ferocity certainly merits stiffer punctuation than a period can provide.

The second time you take it in, allow yourself to focus on the reactions. Catcher Dalton Rushing and baserunner Brandon Nimmo offer an illuminating interplay. Nimmo cranes his head toward the heavens and prepares to tag up on the play in spite of the fact that the ball goes on to land some 900 feet past the left field wall. Rushing recognizes at once that the ball has attained escape velocity, and he reacts by lifting his hands with enough suddenness and precision to send you searching the web for the phrase “rude Italian hand gestures.” A couple behind the plate provides a master class in the Long O sound:

SHE: Whoa.
HE: [EXPLETIVE DELETED] Nooo.
SHE: Ohhhh!

On your third pass, please focus exclusively on pitcher Ryan Loutos as he crumbles into dust. The young pitcher’s delivery is a study in contrasts. He’s all elbows and knees as he drops and drives, but he finishes with such rotational force that his follow-through twists him all the way around toward first base, torso first, arms and right leg swinging forward in neat arcs to catch up. He’s linear then rotational, angled then curved, herky-jerky then smooth. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Carlos Rodón was cruising until he wasn’t. After shutting out the Red Sox for the first four innings on Sunday night in the Bronx, Rodón scuffled while facing Boston’s hitters a third time, serving up two homers and allowing five runs before making an abrupt departure in the sixth inning of what became an 11-7 loss. It was a rare bum note from the 32-year-old lefty, who has stepped up to help the Yankees overcome the losses of Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, pitching well enough to merit All-Star consideration.

Through four innings of an AL East rubber match between the first-place Yankees (39-25) and fourth-place Red Sox (32-35), Rodón had allowed only one hit and one walk while striking out four. He hadn’t thrown more than 16 pitches in any inning, had gotten first-pitch strikes against nine out of 14 hitters, and had allowed just one hard-hit ball: a 109.9-mph grounder by Ceddanne Rafaela that became an infield hit in the third. That play was compounded by a Jazz Chisholm Jr. throwing error, but it turned out to be of no consequence.

In the fourth inning, Rodón issued a two-out walk to Carlos Narváez, who to that point was just the second hitter he’d fallen behind 2-0 all night. It was the start of a trend. He went 2-0 against Abraham Toro before getting him to pop out to lead off the fifth, and after falling behind Trevor Story, induced him to pop out as well. To that point, he had retired 14 out of 16 batters, but he would get just one of the next five. Rafaela, the owner of a 42.7% chase rate (fourth-highest in the majors) wouldn’t bite at any of Rodón’s first three pitches, all well outside the zone, and ended up drawing a rare walk. Two pitches later, Kristian Campbell sent an up-and-away fastball just to the left of the foul pole in Yankee Stadium’s short right field, a towering 99-mph, 38-degree drive that didn’t slice. The runs snapped Rodón’s 18-inning scoreless streak, which dated back to the final inning of his May 16 start against the Mets. The homer was much less emphatic than Aaron Judge’s 108.6-mph, 436-foot blast off Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins in the first inning, but it tied the game nonetheless. Rodón then struck out Jarren Duran chasing a low-and-away slider to end the frame. It was his 15th whiff on the night (six via his slider, five on his sinker, three on his four-seamer, and one on his change-up), and his fifth and final strikeout. Read the rest of this entry »

Few things tickle my fancy like a baseball player up to no good. Blue Jays reliever Brendon Little presently holds this distinction. Take a gander:

That’s Ramón Laureano swinging at Little’s knuckle-curve, which Little bounced off the front edge of home plate. Here’s another (pardon Matt Olson’s cameo):

Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Washington has formed strong opinions over his long time in the game. One of them is built on old-school common sense. The 73-year-old Los Angeles Angels manager doesn’t believe in hefty hacks from batters who don’t possess plus pop, and that’s especially the case when simply putting the ball in play can produce a positive result. Which isn’t to say he doesn’t like home runs — “Wash” is no fool — it’s just that he wants his hitters to play to the situation. Moreover, he wants them to play to their own strengths.

The subject came up when the veteran manager met with the media prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. Zach Neto had gone deep the previous day — it was his 10th dinger on the season — and Washington stated that he doesn’t want the young shortstop thinking home run. I proceeded to ask him if he likes any hitter thinking home run.

“That’s a tough question,” he replied. “You’ve got guys that are home run hitters — that’s what they do — and you’ve also got guys that are home run hitters who are ‘hitters.’ There are guys that can walk up to the plate, look for a pitch, and take you deep if you throw it. Neto is not one of them.

“The game of baseball has transitioned itself to the point where everybody is worried about exit velocity and launch angle,” added Washington. “Even little guys have got a launch angle. They’re supposed to be putting the ball in play, getting on the base paths, causing havoc on the base paths, and letting the guys that take care of driving in runs drive in the runs. But for some reason, the industry right now… everybody wants to be a long-ball hitter. And I see a lot of 290-foot fly balls. I see a lot of 290-foot fly balls where they caught it on a barrel. If you caught the ball on a barrel and it only went 290 feet, you’re not a home run hitter. I see a lot of that.”

What about hitters that do have plus power? Does Washington like them thinking home run? That follow-up elicited any even lengthier response. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not the results. I mean, it’s not not the results. Nobody feels good about an 0-4 record or a 5.68 ERA. But while the top line numbers are reason enough to worry about Spencer Strider, changes to his delivery and pitch shapes point to deeper concerns. The 26-year-old right-hander has made just four starts this season, but it’s reasonable to ask whether he’ll ever regain the form that just two years ago made him one of the most dominant forces in the game.

First and foremost, this stinks. Strider is a charismatic young player who’s easy to root for. When he’s at his best, standing bow-legged on the mound with his muscles threatening to shred his uniform pants, blowing 100-mph heat past anyone unlucky enough to find themselves in the batter’s box, he’s appointment viewing. After a cup of coffee in 2021, Strider burst onto the scene a fully-formed ace in 2022, laying waste to the league with a 98-mph fastball, a wicked slider, and a rumor of a changeup. From 2022 to 2023, his 2.43 FIP was the best among all starters, and his 10.3 WAR trailed only Kevin Gausman’s 10.7. Strider’s 3.36 ERA was 16th-best among starters with at least 300 innings pitched, and he looked for all the world like he would spend the rest of the decade as a true ace. Four games back from the internal brace surgery that wiped out nearly all of his 2024 season, we’re forced to reassess. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a frustrating season for Mark Vientos. After two years of trying to stick with the Mets, he broke out by hitting 27 homers in 111 games last season, and handled third base well enough to look as though he’d locked down a regular job. Yet this year, he’s regressed on both sides of the ball, and on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, he added injury to insult when he strained his right hamstring. The silver lining is that the 25-year-old slugger will get a chance for a reset once he’s healthy, and in his absence, the Mets have an opportunity to sort through their talented but still largely unproven assortment of young infielders.

Vientos’ injury occurred in the top of the 10th inning in Monday night’s opener of a four-game NLCS rematch between the Mets and Dodgers in Los Angeles; the series was an exciting one full of late-inning lead changes, with the two teams emerging with a split and three games decided by one run. Los Angeles had tied Monday’s game in the bottom of the ninth on a Shohei Ohtani sacrifice fly, and New York answered by scoring runs with back-to-back hits to start the 10th. With two outs and runners on the corners, Vientos had a chance to break the game open. He’d been hitting the ball hard lately but not getting great results, and when he smoked a 97-mph grounder to the right of shortstop Hyeseong Kim, it appeared to be more of the same. Kim reached the ball before it cleared the infield, but his throw to first base was an off-line one-hopper. It didn’t matter, as Vientos had fallen down before making it halfway down the line, because his right hamstring seized up.

On Tuesday, the Mets placed Vientos on the injured list and sent him back to New York to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Carlos Mendoza said on Wednesday that Vientos has a low-grade hamstring strain and is expected to receive treatment for 10-14 days before resuming baseball activities. To replace him on the roster, the Mets recalled 24-year-old Ronny Mauricio from Triple-A Syracuse. The former Top 100 prospect (no. 44 in 2022, and no. 90 in ’23, both as a 50-FV prospect) missed all of last season due to a right anterior cruciate ligament tear suffered during winter ball in February 2024. More on him below, but first, Vientos’ struggles are worth a closer look. Read the rest of this entry »

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