Daylen Lile has been swinging a hot bat. Over his last nine games, the 22-year-old outfielder is 16-for-37 with a double, four triples, and two home runs. Moreover, he’s been one of the top position player rookies in the National League this season. Since debuting with the Washington Nationals in late May (and subsequently receiving a second call-up after a 10-day return to the minors in June), Lile has a 114 wRC+ to go with a .282/.327/.450 slash line over 286 plate appearances. His 74 base knocks include 13 two-baggers, eight three-baggers, and five round-trippers.

How well he’ll perform going forward is a good question. Ranked fifth with a 45 FV when our Nationals list came out in early July, the 2021 second round pick out of Louisville’s Trinity High School was described by Eric Longenhagen as a player whose “most important attributes are his hand-eye coordination and his bat control.” Our lead prospect analyst went to say that he has Lile “graded as a contact-oriented platoon bat.”

The youngster’s left-handed stroke did a lot of damage — albeit not of the fence-clearing variety — down on the farm. In 47 games between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester, Lile slashed .328/.377/.503 with four home runs and a 143 wRC+ over 213 plate appearances. That he’s heated up since getting off to a slow start in the bigs — a 56 wRC+ and a .571 OPS through his first 20 games — isn’t exactly a surprise. Read the rest of this entry »

Every morning, I go to FanGraphs and pull up a few leaderboards. One of my favorites these days shows trailing 30-day plate discipline statistics. Ever since Michael Harris II dug himself a huge hole by swinging at everything and then dug himself out of it by swinging some more, I’ve been checking to see whether he’s reined in his swing-first tendencies. Never fear, he’s still up there hacking — his swing percentage ranks 18th in the majors over the last month — but this isn’t an article about Harris. Here are the top 10 hitters in baseball by swing percentage over the last 30 days:

This generally isn’t a ranking you want to be at the top of. Ezequiel Tovar is on there because he’s never seen a slider he doesn’t like. In the aggregate, this group is hitting horribly over the last month. But there are two exceptions to that statement. Ozzie Albies is having a resurgent stretch, and as you can see from his low swinging strike rate, he’s operating pretty differently from the rest of this group. That’s neat, but Albies also isn’t the focus of today’s article. No, that would be Bryce Harper, who seems to defy everything I know about patience and power.

Sluggers wait for their pitch. I’ve known that for as long as I’ve followed baseball. I grew up on Barry Bonds’ perfect idea of the zone, A-Rod and David Ortiz taking tough pitches off the outside corner, Albert Pujols walking more often than he struck out. And this isn’t some SEAGER issue, either. That metric is about measuring controlled aggression, the ability to swing frequently without bad chases. Corey Seager’s career chase rate is 27.1%. The last time Harper showed that much restraint was 2018. How does he do it?! Read the rest of this entry »

When the Mets signed Juan Soto to a 15-year deal last December, they expected him to be the heaviest hitter on a contending team, a player who would factor into the Most Valuable Player voting. Odds are that they didn’t price his base-stealing ability into his record-setting, $765-million contract, yet with just under three weeks remaining in the regular season, the 26-year-old slugger has not only set a career high in steals, but he might very well become the first player this season to join the 30-homer, 30-steal club.

Despite a slow start that included just three home runs and two stolen bases through the end of April, Soto has clubbed 38 homers and is just three away from his career high, set last year with the Yankees. He’s already had additional seasons with 34 and 35 homers (2019 and ’23, respectively), so any total in that range is hardly out of the norm. What’s remarkable is that he now has 29 steals, a country mile beyond his previous career high (he stole 12 in both 2019 and ’23), and more than he swiped from 2022–24 combined (25 steals). At this writing, he’s third in the NL in homers but 11 behind leader Kyle Schwarber. By comparison, he’s fifth in the league in steals but just eight off the lead, held by Oneil Cruz.

Soto stole seven bases (in 11 attempts) last year, and averaged about nine steals for the 2021–24 span. He added five steals in May to those two in April, but he stole just two more in June. Once July hit, though, and especially after the All-Star break, he started running more frequently, with four of his six steals for the month coming in a nine-game span from July 19–28. He’s maintained a similar clip since then, with 11 steals in August — tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the major league lead in that month — and three more in September. That’s a major league-leading 18 steals in 20 attempts over his past 45 games, a 65-steal pace! Chisholm is second over that same span with 17. Read the rest of this entry »

To no one’s surprise, Shohei Ohtani is having a big season. His 170 wRC+ is second only to Aaron Judge with 192. He’s on pace to tie his career high of 54 home runs. He leads all of baseball with 127 runs scored. Oh, and he’s started doing that pitching thing again. Don’t let his 3.75 ERA fool you. He’s only made 12 appearances and thrown 36 innings, but his 2.47 expected ERA, 2.17 FIP, and 2.53 expected FIP are all career-bests. His average fastball velocity is up. He’s striking out as many batters as ever while slashing his walk rate and avoiding hard contact. There’s no shortage of reasons to write about Ohtani, but our subject today is his spot in the lineup.

Last Tuesday, Ohtani hit his 46th home run. It left his bat at 120 mph, making it the hardest-hit ball of his entire career. I wrote a whole article about it. It was also his 100th home run as a Dodger (in just his second year as a Dodger!). Lost amid all that hoopla was a different milestone. I neglected to mention at the time that it was Ohtani’s 42nd home run of the season from the leadoff spot, which set a new record. It’s the most ever. He also homered twice on Sunday, to push the record to 44. Should we watch all three of those recent home runs? I think it’s best that we do.

The old record was not particularly old. It belonged to Ronald Acuña Jr., who conducted his scorched earth 2023 campaign against the pitchers of the world while batting first for the Braves. In fact, eight of the top 10 seasons have come in the past nine years, five of them in the past four years. That shouldn’t necessarily come as a shock. Home run power has increased over the course of baseball history, and lineup optimization has become the norm over the last several years. Teams are stacking their best hitters in the first and second spots, and the best hitters tend to hit homers. Here’s the top 10 according to our friends at Stathead: Read the rest of this entry »

I learned a new fact while watching the Yankees-Blue Jays game on Sunday, and I’d like to share it with you: YES Network play-by-play man Michael Kay mentioned that Austin Wells is tied for the league lead in sacrifice flies with Geraldo Perdomo.

I don’t want to disabuse anyone of the notion that FanGraphs writers are all-seeing brains-in-jars, but I had no idea this was the case. Even considering the vast bigness of my highly learned noggin, I can’t say that sacrifice flies have ever been a stat I cared much about tracking. I’m sure there’s some connection (positive or negative, I cannot say) between the quality of a hitter and the number of sac flies he produces, but mostly sacrifice flies seem to be more a function of opportunity than skill. Not least because I don’t think anyone sets out to hit a sacrifice fly as such; if you’re putting the ball in the air with a runner on third and less than two outs, you’d probably rather hit a home run or a double. A sac fly is a fallback position.

But this fun fact about the major league sac fly leaderboard struck me, because in my mind, Perdomo isn’t the sac fly guy, he’s the sac bunt guy. Read the rest of this entry »

David Hamilton doesn’t wait casually at first base. He lurks, waiting for the slightest opening to take off. Watch an at-bat where Hamilton is on the bases, and he’s often as much a point of discussion as the man at the plate. Take the game between the Red Sox and Guardians on September 1, for example. Hamilton pinch-ran for Carlos Narváez with Connor Wong at the plate. Wong fouled off a bunt for strike one with the entire defense focused on Hamilton at first base. Then Hamilton stole second on the next pitch even with the catcher, pitcher, and infielders all fixed on his every move.

Hamilton isn’t the most prolific basestealer in the majors. He isn’t the most successful. But he is the baserunner who tries to steal most frequently, after adjusting for opportunities, and so he’s a great poster boy for what I’d like to talk about today: stolen base opportunities and takeoff rate.

It doesn’t take much to make a stolen base possible, just a runner and an open base. You do need both of those, though. Draw a walk to load the bases, and you’re not attempting a steal without something very strange going on. Stolen base opportunities aren’t easy to find in a box score or a game recap. They’re the negative space of baseball – no one’s counting them, and it’s easier to see where they aren’t than where they are. So, uh, I counted them. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to believe, but in two months, the celebratory World Series Champagne will have dried, the beer will be gone, and free agents will hit the open markets. After the season, players and teams have only five days to make their final option decisions, a choice that can have an enormous impact on future earnings or offseason team plans. I’m not here to predict all of those options in a 40,000-word article, as you, loyal FanGrapheteer, might nod off in boredom while Meg and Matt plot my no-doubt painful demise. But we can do a subset of them, the opt-outs and player options, as many of these are the biggest decisions that will need to be made in November. Plus, it’s an excuse to run out some early projections, which is always fun.

Unless I missed one, there are 15 opt-out clauses or player-only options.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox

It took until mid-February for Alex Bregman to find a new team last year, and his arrival in Boston set off an unexpected chain of events that ended with Rafael Devers getting traded to San Francisco. Bregman has a particularly interesting choice to make in that he has only two years remaining on his deal, but a pretty spicy $80 million coming to him for those two seasons if he stays. Naturally, Bregman wants a little more security that what his Red Sox deal calls for, but that might not be attainable to him at his current rate of $40 million per year. He turns 32 in March, so he won’t be able to command a lucrative long-term deal like the one that Kyle Tucker, who is still in his 20s, is expected to sign this winter. Read the rest of this entry »

Watch this play. What do you notice?

Here’s what I see: Brooks Lee lofts a soft fly ball 248 feet from home plate. Chandler Simpson circles it but loses a bit of momentum by the time it lands in his glove. Twins third base coach Tommy Watkins sends the not-particularly-fast Trevor Larnach (18th-percentile sprint speed). Shallow fly ball, slow runner, close play at the plate — Larnach slides in just ahead of the throw. It’s an exciting sequence, and I’ve missed an important part of it. Read the rest of this entry »

A Player’s View piece that ran here at FG a month ago was one of my favorites to put together all season. Entertaining as well as informative — good anecdotes were in abundance — it was self-explanatorily titled: Pitchers Weigh In On Their Catch Play Partners (Some Are Nasty). As evidenced within, a casual tossing of baseballs back and forth is far from what is actually happening.

Last weekend, I learned that Bubba Chandler has scratched Paul Skenes from his partners list.

“We’ve trained together the last two off-seasons, and we’ve played catch,” the Pittsburgh Pirates rookie told me. “I don’t want to give him his flowers, but my vision isn’t great, and he’s a guy who throws hard and his pitches move a lot. The eyes can’t really keep up with the ball. And then you’re throwing in 50-degree weather with clouds and a light mist — or maybe it’s a super-bright day — and you can’t see it. And he’s just freaking ripping it. I’ll never play catch with him again.

“I got friggin’ popped in Baton Rouge this year, and that was actually indoors,” continued Chandler. “He threw his stupid sinker, and it didn’t sink. It rose off the top of my glove, right to my shoulder. So yeah, I’ll never do it again.”

As is common for starters, Chandler typically does his in-season catch play with a bullpen catcher — a breed whose job requirements make catching most anyone a comparable piece of cake. But what about other pitchers? Is Chandler an easy partner, or someone best to avoid?

“Throughout the week I’m an easy catch-play, but the day before I pitch, I let it eat a little bit,” said the righty, whose heater flirts with triple digits. “It’s not a lot of volume, maybe just 20-25 throws, but that’s the day I throw hard and it moves pretty good. I assume guys don’t want to play catch with me on that day.”

Chandler, who has made three relief appearances since being called up in late August, is scheduled to make his first MLB start this afternoon.

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Eddie Mathews went 18 for 36 against Moe Drabowsky.

Carl Yastrzemski went 10 for 16 against Bill Gogolewski.

Greg Luzinski went 15 for 34 against Andy Messersmith.

Bill Mazeroski went 20 for 50 against Don Nottebart.

Ted Kluszewski went 23 for 50 against Warren Hacker.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong was a high-profile prospect when I approached him on the back fields of the Chicago Cubs spring training complex in 2023. The young outfielder’s thoughts on his development as a hitter is what I were after, and one of the things he said in our relatively brief conversation stood out: “I feel like you’re probably going to ask me about the power.”

Two-and a-half years later, PCA, as he is affectionally called by Cubs fans, has 28 home runs and a .496 slugging percentage in his second full season in the big leagues. With that in mind, I reminded him of what he had said to me in Mesa. Looking back, was he self-conscious, or perhaps a little defensive, about his power potential?

“That was kind of the topic of conversation in my offensive game at the time,’ Crow-Armstrong told me at Wrigley Filed on Friday. “I was very prepared to be approached about the lack of power. What everybody always wanted to talk about was how my hitting was like… I think that everybody knew that I could play defense, but everybody was always more skeptical about my bat. Rightfully so. So, I was always prepared to answer questions about what was lacking in my offensive game.”

Crow-Armstrong had also told me in our back-fields exchange that his power has “always been there.” Does he have more now than he did in the minors?

“I feel like I’ve developed into my power,” he said to that question. “I have the same wiry strength, but you’re seeing the natural evolution of a growing human being that’s gotten better at what he does.”

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A quiz:

Nolan Ryan (at age 44, in 1991) is the oldest MLB pitcher to throw a no-hitter, while Amos Rusie (at age 20, in 1891) is the youngest. The next four youngest pitchers threw theirs between 1901-1912.

Who is the youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter in the past 100 seasons? (A hint: he won a Cy Young award and three World Series rings.)

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NEWS NOTES

Rich Hinton, a left-hander who appeared in 116 games while playing for five teams from 1971-1979, died recently at age 78 (per Newsweek). Pitching primarily with the Chicago White Sox, Hinton was credited with nine wins and three saves.

Davey Johnson died yesterday at age 82. A highly-successful manager following his playing days, the second baseman made four All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves while strapping on the cleats from 1965-1978. Primarily a Baltimore Oriole, Johnson hit 43 home runs for the Atlanta Braves in 1973.

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The answer to the quiz is Vida Blue, who threw a no-hitter in September 1970, 55 days after his 21st birthday. If you guessed Wilson Alvarez, his August 1991 no-hitter came 140 days after his 21st birthday.

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Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt was asked about Fenway Park’s outfield dimensions prior to this past Monday’s holiday matinee in Boston, and as do many managers, he pointed not to the Green Monster, but rather to the large expanse on the other side of the diamond.

“It’s like a center field in right field,” Vogt told a cadre of reporters. “There are so many cool nooks and crannies. That’s why I love baseball. Not one field is the same. But yeah, we’ve got to get our work in. Even though it’s a day game, we’ve got to come out get looks and understand what we’re dealing with.”

I had a question for Vogt regarding the opponents the Guardians have had to deal with. Which is the best team you’ve played so far this season?

“That’s a good question,” Vogt replied. “I’m stumped here. The Dodgers are obviously… when we played the Dodgers it was a really good team. But I have so much respect for everybody. There are so many really, really good teams out there. So yeah. I don’t know.”

The Guardians lost two of three games when they hosted the Dodgers in late May.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Munetaka Murakami has 18 home runs and a 246 wRC+ over 152 plate appearances in his return to action following an oblique injury (which was preceded by elbow surgery last winter). The 25-year-old Tokyo Yakult Swallows slugger is considered a strong candidate to be posted following the NPB season.

Sung-mun Song is slashing .314/.389/.528 with 24 home runs and a 149 wRC+ over 581 plate appearances with the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The recently-turned-29-year-old third baseman/second baseman has reportedly asked to be posted following this season.

Cody Ponce broke the KBO’s single-season strikeout record this past week. The 31-year-old Hanwha Eagles right-hander has fanned 228 batters while going 16-0 with a 1.76 ERA over 163-and-two-thirds innings. Ponce went 1-7 with a 5.86 ERA pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020-2021.

Eric Stout is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA over 113-and-two-thirds innings for the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s TSG Hawks. The 32-year-old left-hander out of Butler University appeared in 23 games for three MLB teams, mostly the Pirates, from 2018-2022.

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Gene Hiser’s lone big-league home run was especially memorable. Batting with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning and the Chicago Cubs trailing the New York Mets by a count of 3-2, the outfielder cleared the right field fence at Wrigley Field to send the game to extras. The home team then walked off the June 19, 1973 contest in the 10th on a Jose Cardenal single that plated Billy Williams.

The rest of Hiser’s career wasn’t much to write home about. All told, the University of Maryland product played in 206 games for the Cubs from 1971-1975, logging 53 hits and a 45 wRC+. He did have success against a Hall of Famer. Hiser went 3-for-8 against St. Louis Cardinals legend Bob Gibson.

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Eric Binder plays a key role in Cleveland’s pitching-development program, as well as in the organization’s draft decisions. I recently asked the assistant general manager for his thoughts on a pair of 19-year-old pitchers whom the Guardians selected in last year’s amateur draft.

“A young right-hander starter who recently transitioned from [the Arizona Complex League] to Lynchburg,” Binder said of Joey Oakie, who was selected 84th-overall out of Ankeny, Iowa’s Centennial High School. “High velocity. A fastball that we’re all excited about. How his delivery operates and with the profiles we’re seeing out of hand, he’s creating an interesting demand on the hitter with how that gets pieced together.

“Another guy from last year’s draft class,” Binder said of Braylon Doughty, who was taken 36th-overall out of Temecula, California’s Chaparral High School. “He broke with the Lynchburg team out of spring training. An incredible athlete, and you see that translate to his delivery. Some natural feel to create a lot of different shapes, with plus underlying spin traits. A natural strike thrower. We’re really excited to see him progress with us, as well.”

Doughty — seventh on our updated Guardians list, with a 45+ — has a 3.48 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over 85-and-a-third innings with Lynchburg. Oakie — 23rd on our list, with a 40+ FV — has a 5.31 ERA, a 4.59 FIP, and a 26.8% strikeout rate over 54-and-a-thirds between the AZL and Lynchburg. Topping out at 99 mph, Oakie has fanned 22 batters and allowed just one hit over nine-and-two-thirds innings in his last two outings.

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FARM NOTES

Kendall George has a most-in-the-minors 101 stolen bases (in 125 attempts) to go with a .295/.409/.370 slash line, three home runs, and a 131 wRC+ over 514 plate appearances for the High-A Great Lakes Loons. No. 25 on our updated Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list with a 40 FV, the 20-year-old outfielder was drafted 36th overall last year out of Humble, Texas’s Atascocita High School.

Gabriel Gonzalez is slashing .329/.397/.508 with 13 home runs and a 148 wRC+ over 510 plate appearances across three levels. Currently with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, the 21-year-old outfielder was acquired by the Minnesota Twins from the Seattle Mariners as part of the January 2024 Jorge Polanco trade. Gonzalez is No. 9 in our updated Twins rankings, with a 45 FV.

Micah Ashman has a 1.95 ERA, a 1.55 FIP, and a 33.5% strikeout rate over 55-and-a-third innings between High-A and Double-A. An 11th-round pick last year out of the University of Utah, the 23-year-old left-hander was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Charlie Morton at this summer’s trade deadline.

The Midwest League’s West Michigan Whitecaps have the best record in the minors at 90-39. The Detroit Tigers’ High-A affiliate has a plus-289 run differential.

The Dayton Dragons (High-A Cincinnati Reds) won 15 consecutive games before losing to the Lansing Lugnuts 5-4 on Thursday night. The Dragons have the Midwest League’s worst record at 51-76, and a minus-114 run differential.

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Kenya Huggins was caught by surprise when he learned that he’d been dealt from the Reds to the Athletics at this summer’s trade deadline. A fourth-round pick by Cincinnati in 2002 out of Chipola Junior College, the 22-year-old right-hander was eating a bowl of cereal when he received the news.

“It’s the craziest experience I’ve ever had,” said Huggins, who has been with High-A Lansing since changing organizations. “It’s funny, we were actually playing here [at West Michigan]. I had just gotten promoted to Dayton, and I was going to be pitching the next day. My manager pulled me into the office and said, ‘Hey, I need to talk to you.’ I was like, ‘Cool, let’s go chat.’ I was eating a bowl of Cap’n Crunch. Had just come in from shagging. Just a regular day. No problem.

“So, I go in the office,” continued Huggins. “He told me, ‘Hey, I wanted to let you know before you look at your phone that you’ve been traded for a big-leaguer. Miguel Andujar is going to the Reds and you’ll be heading to the Athletics.’ At that moment, I had no words. All I could say was, ‘I appreciate you.’”

The hard-throwing native of New Orleans appreciates his breakfast cereal, as well. I learned as much when I asked if he finished the bowl of Cap’n Crunch.

“Yeah, I finished it,” Huggins replied with a smile. “I drank the milk, took in the information, and that was that.”

Huggins has a 3.81 ERA and a 3.80 FIP over 78 innings on the season. He is No. 13 with a 40+ FV in our latest A’s prospect rankings.

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At NBC News, David K. Li looked at how the Women’s Professional Baseball League aims to make the most significant impact on women’s baseball since the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League, which operated from 1943 to 1954.

Former Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos is pitching for the KBO’s LG Twins this season. Jee-ho Yoo wrote about him for Yonhap News Agency.

MLB.com’s Matthew Leach wrote about Minnesota Twins prospect Kala’i Rosario, who has 25 home runs and 25 steals for Double-A Wichita Wind Surge.

MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler introduced us to a prolific songwriter who has recorded hundreds of baseball tunes, many of them about specific MLB players.

Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy is 70 years old and in the last year of his contract. Is this his swan song? Barry Bloom delved into the question at Sportico.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester is 11-0 with a 2.79 ERA since May 30. The Brewers have won all 17 games he’s appeared in since that time.

A good note from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Friday afternoon: “The wind is blowing out at Wrigley for just the 16th time in 68 games this season. Teams have combined to average 12.9 runs per game when it blows out, compared to seven when it blows in.

Luis Arraez recorded his 1,000th career hit earlier this week. The three-time batting champ currently has 1,005 hits, including 221 extra-base hits, as well as 224 walks and 211 strikeouts.

Freddie Freeman has 938 extra-base hits, the most among active players. He is tied with Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews for 58th all-time in that category.

Rafael Devers has 16 home runs and a 136 wRC+ in 70 games with the San Francisco Giants. He had 15 home runs and a 144 wRC+ in 73 games with the Boston Red Sox prior to being traded in June.

Ichiro Suzuki and Troy Tulowitzki went a combined 0-for-28 against Ryan Vogelsong. Omar Infante and Billy Hamilton went a combined 13-for-19 against Vogelsong.

On today’s date in 1971, Mickey Lolich went the distance to run his record to 23-10 as the Detoit Tigers blanked the Washington Senators 3-0 at RFK Stadium. Lolich finished the season 25-14 with a 2.92 ERA over 376 innings. He threw complete games in 29 of his 45 starts.

The Boston Braves swept a doubleheader from the Brooklyn Dodgers on today’s date in 1948, winning by scores of 2-1 and 4-0. Warren Spahn went the distance in the 14-inning opener, then Johnny Sain threw a complete game of his own while throwing half as many frames. The nightcap was called on account of darkness after the Dodgers batted in the top of the seventh.

Players born on today’s date include John Pawlowski, a right-hander who made eight relief appearances for the Chicago White Sox across the 1987-1988 seasons. A longtime college coach following his playing career, Pawlowski was on the winning end of his lone decision, the W coming courtesy of a Carlton Fisk walk-off home run against Oakland’s Eric Plunk.

Also born on today’s date was Stan Pawloski, an infielder whose big-league career comprised two games and one hit in eight at-bats for the Cleveland Indians in 1955. The Wanamie, Pennsylvania native spent nine seasons on the farm, the first of them with the 1949 Stroudsburg Poconos, a team that went 101-36 before going on to top the Peekskill Highlanders in the North Atlantic League championship series.

Are you a fan of a team in playoff position? Are you tearing your hair out because their bullpen has been completely unable to get anybody out over the past couple weeks? Is this starting to get creepy? Does it feel as if I’m staring straight into your very soul? Worry not. I’m just playing the odds. Below is a table that shows bullpen performance over the last 14 days, but only for the 13 teams with at least a 12% chance of making the playoffs. I’ve highlighted the teams whose ERA ranks in the bottom half of the league over that stretch:

There are the Red Sox in fifth place, looking solid with a 3.40 ERA. But, uh, this not exactly an encouraging sign for all these playoff teams. That’s a lot of yellow. Boston is the only team in the top 10; no one else has a bullpen ERA below 4.00. Only five of these teams are even in the top half of the league. The Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Blue Jays all have ERAs over 5.00.

The Brewers are tied with the Twins for the league lead with five blown saves in the past two weeks. The Blue Jays and Phillies each have four. Just a reminder: The Brewers have the best record in baseball, and the Blue Jays and Phillies are tied for the second best. All of sudden, none of them can close out a game to save their lives.

Once again, I need to disavow any supernatural influence here. I don’t think there’s a paranormal reason that seemingly every good baseball team’s bullpen is in a rut. It’s mostly a coincidence. If we look at FIP, things are much more reasonable. Six of our 13 teams are in the top 10, and only four are in the bottom half of the league. That’s pretty much what you’d expect. Most of the good teams have strong bullpens. This is a short stretch, a small sample of innings, and a volatile cohort to start with. The Brewers’ bullpen has an excellent 3.29 FIP over the past two weeks, but it’s blown five saves anyway. Stuff happens.

I’ll break down the four teams at the bottom of the table along with a couple others I found noteworthy due to injury reasons, or because I’m worried about them heading into the playoffs, but that’s mostly what I wanted to tell you. All the bullpens seem to be blowing up right now. It’s weird. If you’re tearing your hair out because we’re in September and your bullpen can’t hold on to a lead, relax. First, there may be enough time to right the ship. Second, whoever you’re facing in the playoffs can’t hold a lead right now either, unless it’s the Red Sox (who gave up eight runs in a bullpen game last night, presumably because that’s what all the cool kids are doing).

Mets
The Mets lead the league with a whopping six relievers on the IL right now: Reed Garrett, Drew Smith, Danny Young, A.J. Minter, Max Kranick, and Dedniel Núñez. Smith, Minter, Kranick, and Garrett had all been pitching well before their injuries. That’s four good relievers lost, and only Garrett has a chance to return this season. That’s how the Mets ended up claiming Wander Suero, who has thrown just 6 1/3 major league innings in the last two seasons combined, from the Braves off waivers yesterday. Suero has a 1.35 ERA and 2.63 FIP over 46 2/3 innings in Triple-A Gwinnett, and he will get the chance to prove that’s not a fluke. The Mets called him up less than half an hour ago to take the spot of the struggling Kodai Senga, who has been optioned to Syracuse.

More than that, Ryan Helsley has been completely ineffective since the deadline trade that brought him to New York from St. Louis. He had a 3.00 ERA and 3.56 FIP as a Cardinal, and he has a 11.45 ERA and 6.50 FIP as a Met. Helsley said last week that he thinks he’s been tipping pitches. With any luck, he’ll get that sorted out. If he does that and Garrett comes back pitching well, they’ll join Tyler Rogers, lefties Brooks Raley and Gregory Soto, and closer Edwin Díaz, all of whom are putting up good numbers this season. Somehow the Mets could still put together a solid bullpen going into the playoffs.

Dodgers
The Dodgers’ relievers rank third in the majors with 5.2 WAR this season, but that’s mostly because they’ve been asked to throw 570 1/3 innings, the most in baseball. At the moment, RosterResource says they’re tied with the Brewers at five injured relievers, one behind the Mets. They lost Evan Phillips to Tommy John surgery in May, deadline acquisition Brock Stewart went on the IL with shoulder inflammation almost immediately after the trade, and Alex Vesia strained an oblique on August 21. Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius are the only relievers on the team with FIPs below 3.50. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates are load-bearing pieces who have taken major steps back and lost time to injury besides, and yet the Dodgers are still one of the higher teams on the list. After missing time with forearm tightness earlier in the season, Blake Treinen has allowed just two runs in his last 12 appearances, and his ERA is down to 3.00.

Yankees
The headliner here is the 5.60 ERA that Devin Williams has put up this season, but as Michael Baumann wrote earlier today, the underlying numbers aren’t that bad. They’re maybe even good. The Yankees lost Jake Cousins to Tommy John surgery in June and Jonathan Loáisiga to a flexor strain in August. Brent Headrick is also on the IL after taking a line drive off his pitching arm. The Yankees have also suffered blowups from Paul Blackburn and Yerry De los Santos. They pulled the plug on deadline acquisition Jake Bird almost immediately. He had a 4.73 ERA and and 3.50 FIP in Colorado before the deadline, but he got into just three games for the Yankees, allowing six runs over two innings before being optioned to Triple-A, where he has continued to struggle. Luke Weaver has been bitten by the home run bug lately, allowing four in his last seven appearances for an ERA of 5.14. However, his average exit velocity over that stretch is lower than it’s been the rest of the season, and he’s run a 2.53 xFIP. It seems more like bad luck than anything.

Fernando Cruz and David Bednar have been lights-out, Tim Hill is still a groundball machine, and Camilo Doval hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances. Over the entire season, the Yankees bullpen has a 3.93 xFIP, tied for second-best in baseball. Over the past two weeks, they’ve got the second-best FIP despite the hideous ERA. It’s hard to imagine them making a run without Williams and Weaver (The Deadly W’s) turning things around, but this isn’t necessarily a disastrous ‘pen either.

Cubs
By most metrics, the Cubs bullpen has been right in the middle of the pack this year. In the past two weeks, its 3.05 xFIP is the third best in baseball. So why are the ERA and FIP so ugly? That’s the danger of playing in homer-friendly Wrigley Field in August. Over that stretch, 21.1% of their fly balls have gone for home runs, second only to the Rockies (and not coincidentally, they recently spent a three-game series in Colorado). Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers have put up good seasons, but have each given up a couple of homers in recent weeks, and because the Cubs have relied on their bullpen less than just about any other team over that stretch, those mistakes have been magnified. Nothing that’s happened in the past two weeks has made me change my opinion of this relief corps.

Phillies
Philadelphia’s bullpen has been an issue all year long. Free agent signings Joe Ross and Jordan Romano have not worked out at all, putting up a combined -0.5 WAR over 86 appearances and 93 2/3 innings. The good news is that the bullpen looks very different now. The Phillies released Ross, and Romano hit the IL with middle finger inflammation. They signed David Robertson in free agency in July, traded for Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and got star lefty José Alvarado back from an 80-game PED suspension on August 20. Alvardo has looked very rusty since his return and won’t be available for the playoffs, but Robertson and Duran have been excellent. Together with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, the Phillies should have a serviceable, if shallow, bullpen going into October. With Zack Wheeler out and Aaron Nola struggling, the rotation may be the bigger concern.

Blue Jays
How much time do you have? The Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024, and if nothing else, they looked primed to bounce back. They non-tendered Jordan Romano. They signed the excellent Jeff Hoffman, traded for Nick Sandlin, brought back Yimi García and Ryan Yarbrough, and took flyers on arms like Amir Garrett, Jacob Barnes, and Richard Lovelady. And they have bounced back. They rank in the middle of the pack in both ERA and FIP, and seventh in xFIP. Lately, though, they just can’t seem to get outs.

They released Yarbrough before the season. The fliers they took haven’t worked out, nor have in-house guys like Chad Green, Zach Pop, and Erik Swanson. They’ve lost major pieces, with both Sandlin and García out for the season. Other injuries forced Easton Lucas and Eric Lauer into starting roles, where they’ve performed significantly worse. Hoffman put up three ugly performances in the last week of August, though he’s looked much better in the past week. Although the underlying numbers aren’t bad, deadline acquisition Louis Varland has a 6.91 ERA in 15 appearances as a Blue Jay.

If Hoffman can keep things straightened out, if Varland’s luck can turn around, if Lucas and Lauer can get back in the bullpen, if the arms that got them here – Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher – can keep doing what they’re doing, the Blue Jays could have a decent bullpen going into the playoffs. But that’s a lot of ifs.