For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

The Mariners have had some pretty awesome teams throughout their history, but the World Series has eluded them. Prior to this year, the team had topped out with six-game ALCS exits in 1995 and 2000, and while they missed the Fall Classic again in 2025, they at least set a new high water mark, with a bad seventh inning in Game 7 of their Championship Series against Toronto all that stood between them and a date with the Dodgers. Seattle will largely run it back in 2026, with most of the 2025 team returning for another go.

Looking at the offense, there’s surprisingly little to complain about too strenuously here, and I’m a man known for complaining about things I don’t like. Of the team’s three big hitters who reached free agency this winter — Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Jorge Polanco — ZiPS believes that Seattle retained the right one. Naylor provides production at first base that the Mariners can’t replace and have needed for a long time; the M’s have gotten less than one combined win out of their first basemen in nine of the last 20 seasons. Remember how long Evan White was the future of the position? Suárez still projects decently at third, but he’s also five years older than Naylor, and ZiPS sees Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson as being fine at the hot corner, provided the defensive projections are accurate. ZiPS thinks Williamson is one of the minors’ elite defensive third basemen, and that doesn’t clash at all with the scouting reports. Getting that defense is absolutely crucial, though, as he is unlikely to develop into a real plus with the bat, and while there’s more upside with Emerson, he was promoted aggressively this year and may need a consolidation season. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Along with Prince Fielder, who debuted in mid-2005 and joined the lineup as a regular the following season, Ryan Braun was a transformative figure in the history of the Brewers. Including its one-off season as the Seattle Pilots, the franchise made the playoffs just twice in its first 38 campaigns, back in 1981 and ’82. With Braun — the club’s first-round pick in 2005 — bopping 34 homers in just 113 games en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors in ’07, the Brewers finished above .500 for the first time in 15 years, and the next year, with Braun moving from third base (where he was terrible) to left field and making his first of six All-Star teams, they made the playoffs as the National League Wild Card. They would go on to qualify for the playoffs four more times during Braun’s career, with division titles and trips to the National League Championship Series in 2011 and ’18, though they fell just short of trips to the World Series.

Braun won NL MVP honors in 2011 and went on a memorable October run before the Brewers were eliminated, then led the league in home runs while finishing as runner-up in the voting the following year. He accumulated at least 30 homers and 30 steals in both seasons, but by that point, the legitimacy of those accomplishments was in question. In December 2011, less than a month after he beat out Matt Kemp for MVP, Major League Baseball suspended him for 50 games for testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone, later discovered to be synthetic; the sample had been taken after the Brewers’ first postseason game. With a spokesman citing “highly unusual circumstances,” “Ryan’s complete innocence,” “impeccable character and no previous history” of violations, Braun challenged the suspension. In February 2012, an arbitration panel overturned it due to a technicality involving the delay between when he submitted his sample and when the collector, a man named Dino Laurenzi Jr., sent it to the lab.

Both that reversal and Braun’s following actions — smearing Laurenzi both publicly and privately, even alleging that the collector was anti-Semitic (Braun’s father is Jewish, and Braun publicly embraced his Jewish heritage) — are without parallel in MLB’s long steroid saga. What’s more, Braun’s indignation and proclamations of innocence turned out to be a total sham; in 2013, he was discovered to have received PEDs through the Biogenesis Clinic, and earned a 65-game suspension. Thereafter, he publicly apologized, made amends with Laurenzi, and did his best to rehabilitate his image and demonstrate solid citizenship by continuing his involvement in several charitable organizations; he even earned multiple nominations for the Roberto Clemente Award. While he continued to play a supporting role on some very good Brewers teams (and some not-so-good ones), age and injuries limited his availability and effectiveness. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

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The 2025 Cleveland Guardians proved that necromancy is, in fact, possible, and despite looking dead by the All-Star break, they went on a monumental late-season tear to close a 12 1/2-game gap in the AL Central over the last five weeks of the season. While the season ended in dissatisfying fashion, with the Guardians dropping the Wild Card Series in three games to the Detroit Tigers, just getting to the playoffs in 2025 felt like they were playing with house money. The fun of Cleveland’s postseason run did hide some serious problems with the team, though, most notably an offense that scored fewer runs than every team except the Pirates and Rockies. The Guardians may have made their big September surge without Emmanuel Clase’s services, but the loss of their best reliever — for what is looking more and more likely to be forever — removes a key part of their core. Cleveland did win 88 games, but the team was outscored by its opponents on the year, and the context of this sentence ought to indicate to you, fair reader, whether run differential or actual wins has more predictive value.

ZiPS projects the Guardians to have a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses as the Twins in 2026. On offense, ZiPS sees both teams as having one hitter it really likes, with José Ramírez being the healthier star compared to Byron Buxton. Then, each team has a couple position players the system likes, with Steven Kwan and the catchers — OK, Bo Naylor — standing in as Cleveland’s version of Luke Keaschall and the Minnesota catchers. But just like with the Twins, once you get past the top guys, ZiPS sees a whole lotta mid going ’round in Cleveland. Kyle Manzardo’s uneven platoon splits keep his ceiling fairly low, so the Guardians could use a lefty smasher to pair with him to make first base a plus position. Second base is fine at the moment, and it should be even better than that if Travis Bazzana, the computer’s preference, pushes for the job sooner rather than later.

The projections look most problematic at center field and designated hitter. Lots of teams slum it at DH, so I can see the Guardians just rolling with [insert mediocre burly batter here] at the position, but there’s probably at least some chance that they’ll make an upgrade in center. Harrison Bader is probably the most interesting option available, at least of the players that the Guardians could theoretically afford; I’d be really surprised to see them want to shell out the cash needed to bring in Cody Bellinger. Perhaps a trade is more likely for Cleveland than signing either free agent.

Put it all together and the Guardians have a below-average offense with some real highlights. Yes, I still think Ramírez is one of the most underrated players of this generation, and I’m already planning my social media meltdowns for 10-15 years from now when I see Hall of Fame ballots with his box unchecked. ZiPS is projecting him for yet another 20/20 season with more than 4 WAR, and considering he’s gone 30/40 with more than 6 WAR in each of the past two seasons, it wouldn’t be surprising to him exceed even ZiPS’ expectations for his age-33 season.

Pitchers

ZiPS is much more confident about the state of the Guardians pitching staff than the lineup. Even if neither pitcher really fits the mold of a typical ace, ZiPS expects both Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams to surpass 3 WAR based on our Depth Chart playing time. There aren’t any big names in this rotation after Bibee and Williams, but ZiPS sees Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen, and Parker Messick as quietly competent starters. ZiPS has had a silicon-crush on Joey Cantillo for a while now, and led by Austin Peterson, the team has pretty good depth in the form of unexciting pitchers with generally decent command. These are the types that Cleveland, like the A’s, has historically produced like clockwork. Luis Ortiz has a good projection as well, but like Clase, it looks like he won’t ever pitch again in the majors or affiliated ball; the good news is the rotation is deep enough to withstand his likely absence.

Last year, ZiPS was quite taken with the Cleveland bullpen, projecting a 5.9 Depth Chart WAR over the winter. That’s one of those fortune-readings that worked out, as the Guardians actually beat that, finishing the season with 6.6 WAR out of the pen. Crossing out Clase, Sam Hentges, and Nic Enright takes this unit down a notch, but the Guardians still project to have a solid group of relievers. A good bullpen can have Cade Smith as its best reliever, and Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Tim Herrin make for a darn good trio of lieutenants. ZiPS sees Cantillo as being very good when used in relief, and while he’ll have to break out to get a lot of innings in the majors, there are so many good upside scenarios for Franco Aleman that the computer is far less annoyed than you may expect about his walk rate in Triple-A. The only prominent denizen on the bullpen depth chart that ZiPS is uneasy about is Peyton Pallette, a Rule 5 draftee last week.

All told, the Guardians will likely end up at 80-85 wins, which puts them a little bit behind the Royals and Tigers, but not so far back that it would be crazy to see Cleveland surpass them in the standings.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.

Throughout history, the Miami Marlins have only produced four kinds of season: The star-studded World Series team of 1997, the star-studded last place team of 2012, unwatchable detritus, and a feisty .500ish club with some fun talent. (The 2003 World Series-winning Marlins were the latter group, plus a one-year cameo by Ivan Rodriguez.)

The 2025 Marlins were expected to be unwatchable detritus, but turned out to be feisty and competitive. I don’t think anyone would accuse these Marlins of being as talented as previous feisty-competitive Miami squads. I’m thinking of the 2014 squad that won 77 games with a roster that featured Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Nathan Eovaldi, as well as (very briefly) Enrique Hernández, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew Heaney, and José Fernández.

That team looked like a juggernaut in the making, because it had a roster full of guys who would spend most of the next decade starting for playoff teams. Just, you know, other playoff teams, and not the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

The Minnesota Twins are in a weird place. They looked to be legitimate AL Central contenders when this year began, but for the second straight year, they started slowly and dug themselves a pretty good hole. Just like in 2024, the Twins then got hot, surged to a bit over .500, and looked to right the ship somewhat in May and early June. But this year, after six weeks of lousy play knocked them out for good, they traded away Carlos Correa, and half of their bullpen, including Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, slashing payroll and appearing to set off a full rebuilding process. The initial buzz was that Pablo López and Joe Ryan would be looking for new homes this offseason, but they’ve stayed put so far, and the Twins are at least publicly saying they plan to build around the players they didn’t trade away. And it sort of makes sense, though I’m not sure if the Twins see it the same way I do.

The lineup looks to me — and ZiPS — as decidedly below average, but it should be noted that ZiPS is considerably less bullish about Brooks Lee at shortstop and the London Symphony Orchestra-sized cast in left field, seeing both of these positions as real problems. That puts me into the camp of having really mixed feelings about the Correa trade. One can see why a team that clearly didn’t want to run a high payroll might be uneasy spending that much money on Correa, who had one abbreviated awesome season and two underwhelming ones in Minnesota. But at the same time, Correa represented at least potential star performance at shortstop. ZiPS is a big fan of Kaelen Culpepper, who I like to imagine is the son of former Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper, but I’m not sure whether the Twins agree with ZiPS and plan on promoting him aggressively, or if they are simply happy to roll with Lee at shortstop. ZiPS also hopes that Emmanuel Rodriguez is healthy and cleans out left field quickly, though it’s still on the fence about the future of Walker Jenkins.

Byron Buxton remains, of course, the closest thing to a star on the team, but there’s always going to be the question of his health that limits the realistic expectation of his playing time. It’s encouraging that he had the most plate appearances of his major league career in 2025, but he’s also creeping into his mid-30s, when players become less durable. I remember being 32, also, and that was about the time where the aches and pains that I assumed would just magically go away in a week just… didn’t.

ZiPS is fine with Luke Keaschall at second, and sees Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers as the serviceable middle class of the lineup. But in addition to the poor projections at shortstop and in left, the DH ones are unimpressive, and ZiPS sees very little merit in the Josh Bell signing. Overall, I’m not sure the Twins really have the lineup to be anything but fringe AL Central contenders. While they’ve talked about building around their remaining talent, that also doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll spend that much to work on their current holes rather than trying to develop in-house options over the next two or three years.

Pitchers

Keeping Ryan and López, if that’s what the Twins actually plan to do, is a pretty big deal. With those two at the top, Minnesota would have a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation. Bailey Ober’s history is better than his 2025 performance, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see him as a fine mid-rotation starter, and ZiPS has always been stanning for Zebby Matthews. Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel all get highly useful projections from ZiPS, and the computer really likes the organization’s minor league depth.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s bullpen is interesting. Losing Duran and Jax really crossed out the top tier of the bullpen, but ZiPS still sees the remaining relievers as far more than merely viable. Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, and Justin Topa all project as solid B-minus relievers, and ZiPS expects the Twins’ tradition of cobbling together a lot of their random Triple-A arms into real bullpen options to continue in 2026. Pierson Ohl, Connor Prielipp, David Festa, Andrew Morris, and Eric Orze all have projections just a shade less sunny than the first three pitchers mentioned at the top of the paragraph.

The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability. It’s the same kind of shortcut reasoning that caused people to underrate the Blue Jays going into this season, assuming that the Jays had to build up from their actual 74-win total in 2024 rather than from something closer to 81-83 wins, which was about Toronto’s true talent level. The 2025 Twins were better than a 70-92 team, but they do have some problems with their offense that they may or may not address between now and next season. If the season started today, the Twins look like a roughly .500 team, with their expected win total somewhere in the 78-84 range, but they’re close enough to good that if they were to hit their upside scenario, they could be an interesting contender. How much the Twins end up pushing that upside scenario, rather than simply deciding not to make the team worse, is something I just don’t know yet.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.