50 FV Prospects

Even as he struggled early as a pro to perform on paper, Amaya drew trade interest from clubs hoping to leverage the Cubs’ championship aspirations to convince the club to part with him. The Cubs refused and have been rewarded, as the offensive potential promised by Amaya’s graceful swing and burgeoning physicality began to actualize in 2018. Amaya’s hands have life, and work in a tight little loop as he accelerates them to swing. He can pull and lift balls in various parts of the zone with regularity, and the impact of his contact is only limited by his average bat speed. The physical grind of catching is likely to dilute his in-game offensive production a little bit, but unless the beating he takes back there starts to take away from his defensive abilities (which sometimes happens to young catchers), Amaya is a pretty good bet to have some kind of big league career, and, if the bat maxes out, he’ll be an above-average regular. He turns 20 in March and will likely head to Hi-A next year. How his advanced defensive ability and less-advanced bat develop could affect how quickly the Cubs push him: slowly if they want to wait for the latter or, depending on how much he hits early as a big leaguer, quickly if they don’t.

Already, Hoerner’s swing has changed. He was making lots of hard, low-lying contact at Stanford, but since signing he has added a subtle little bat wrap that has made a substantial difference in how he impacts the ball. He hit for much more power than was anticipated in the summer and fall, and the identifiable mechanical tweak is evidence that the change is real and not small-sample noise. Hoerner makes routine plays at short and so long as scouts are okay with his funky throwing motion, he has a chance to stay there. There are scouts who have him projected to second base or to center field. Hoerner’s previous swing enabled a bit of a jailbreak out of the batter’s box, exaggerating his home-to-first speed. With the new swing, he’s a 55 runner. Hoener’s bat and probable up the middle defensive profile mean he’s likely to be at least an average regular, and he could move quickly.

We’re chalking up Ademan’s terrible 2018 statline to an overzealous assignment. At age 19, the Cubs sent him to Hi-A Myrtle Beach, where he barely hit above the Mendoza Line. He did look a little bit heavier than he had the year before, and his swing was more upright and less athletic than it has been, but all the physical tools to stay at short are still here (quick actions, sound footwork, plenty of arm) for now. Much of Ademan’s offensive woes can be explained away by his age relative to the level. He doesn’t project to be an impact bat, just one that is better than is usual at shortstop. Ideally he shows up to Mesa in the spring looking a little leaner and twitchier. He’ll likely repeat Myrtle Beach (at least for the season’s first half) and projects as an average everyday player.

45+ FV Prospects

Alzolay felt a weird sensation in his throwing arm in the fourth innings of a late-May start at Triple-A. It was a lat strain, for which he’d need a PRP injection and the rest of the summer to rehab. He was throwing again in the fall and is expected to be ready for 2019. Alzolay may have also had some health issues during his breakout 2017. He was given extended rest throughout July and August, his starts often spaced out by six days. He didn’t throw more than 80 pitches in any August start and was shut down late in that month, then asked to pick up innings in the Arizona Fall League. He has this system’s best two-pitch mix, a fastball/power curveball combo that is ready for a major league bullpen as soon as Alzolay is healthy. To profile in a rotation, he will need a better changeup than the one he has shown in the past; missing several months of action with his lat issue likely slowed that process. The combination of injury and the changeup reps lost to it make it more likely that Alzolay ends up in the bullpen, but he could be a dominant high-leverage option there.

45 FV Prospects

Steele signed for $1 million as one of several over-slot players in Chicago’s terrific 2014 draft class and was tracking through the minors at an even pace before he blew out his elbow in August of 2017. He returned from Tommy John just eleven months after his injury and by the end of his six-week Arizona Fall League run, looked as though he might contribute to the Cubs in 2019. He was touching 95 in the fall and living in the low-90s with less life than his spin rate would indicate. He has an above-average curveball and will flash an average change and a pitch that looks like a cutter, but it may just be a variation of his changeup. He projects as a no. 4 or 5 starter.

As a high school underclassman, Roederer looked like a hit-first tweener outfielder. He added a bunch of good weight and strength and had significantly more raw power when he arrived in the AZL after signing. He has already begun trading a little bit of contact for significantly more game power. With added mass and strength typically comes a reduction in straight line speed, but Roederer hasn’t slowed down just yet and still looks like a possibility to stay in center, though most scouts who saw him in pro ball think he’ll eventually move to left field. Regardless, there’s a whole lot more bat here than there was on our pre-draft evaluation of Roederer, who has risen to the top of the promising teenage hitter group in this system because he has a chance to hit for average and power while the rest are likely to do just one of those.

Name another teenage lefty who touches 99. As far as we know, this is the only one, meaning Marquez is perhaps the hardest-throwing teenage southpaw on the planet right now. He also has pretty advanced fastball command for someone with that kind of heat to go along with a 6.5% walk rate over his last 100 innings of work. His secondary stuff is pretty pedestrian, but everything of his plays up against left-handed hitters because Marquez has a weird, sawed off, low-slot arm action. He’ll need to develop better ways to deal with right-handed hitters, either via command or better secondary stuff, and ultimately Marquez projects as a no. 4 starter because one cannot live on velo alone, but the elite arm strength means his ceiling is higher than that if the Cubs can work some magic with his stuff.

Lange had a legendary college career at LSU, where he always performed despite some year-to-year fluctuations in his velocity. He carved up the SEC with just two pitches, and repertoire depth, the velo issues, and the violence in Lange’s delivery all contributed to the amateur scouting world’s opinion that he would be a reliever in pro ball. Lange’s changeup usage increased dramatically in 2018 and the pitch improved. His curveball doesn’t have big raw spin but it’s still really effective and remains his best pitch. His delivery is deceptive and enables his fastball to play despite below-average velocity. It appears there’s a starter’s arsenal here and Lange threw plenty of strikes in 2018. If he’s living off of deception, perhaps his future role will be limited to a one time through the order type of guy, but that’s still more than a generic 40 FV reliever.

40+ FV Prospects

Arguing in Short’s favor is best done using the same statistics that have made him a Fringe Five mainstay for the last two years. He owns a 17% career walk rate and gets to every bit of his fringy raw power in games because he hits flyballs at a 54% clip, which would be the highest rate in the majors among qualified hitters. Short exists at the far right tail of the player population where both of these skills are concerned. He’s very similar, statistically, to one-year wonder Ryan Schimpf, except Short has better feel for contact and can actually play shortstop. He may wind up in a utility role, but Short is freaky enough in these ways to be more intriguing than your average bench guy, and the Addison Russell situation complicates the Cubs’ shortstop situation enough that Short might be relevant pretty quickly.

Gallardo signed for an even $1 million in July and was, in our opinion, the most well-rounded pitcher in his IFA class. He’s really loose, flexible, and athletic, and has some physical projection. He sits 89-93 right now and it plays at the top of the strike zone. He’ll likely throw harder as he matures. Gallardo also has a proclivity for spin and his curveball already flashes plus. He checks all the traditional boxes for a teenage pitching prospect, has advanced pitchability, and his stuff works in a specific way (four-seamers up, curveballs down) that fits with contemporary pitch usage. Teenage pitching is risky, but every aspect of Gallardo’s profile is indicative of improvement. He has a chance to be really good.

40 FV Prospects

Garcia, who signed for $500,000, just turned 17 in August and hit .300 in the AZL despite being a whopping 3.5 years younger than the average player there. He has really great feel to hit, and not just for his age. It’s punchy, all-fields contact right now. Garcia’s swing has an abbreviated finish and he’s already a pretty stocky kid without much room for mass, so it’s unlikely he develops big home run power as he matures; he might never hit more than 12-15 bombs. But he’s going to hit a ton and he’s athletic enough to have tried shortstop, though he probably fits best at second base, where he might be above-average. Depending on how his bat develops, he could be a Cesar Hernandez type of regular who makes a ton of contact and plays a premium position, which would generate a significant amount of value even if there’s not much pop here. The Cubs have pushed advanced hitters like this pretty aggressively of late, but Garcia is just so young that we anticipate he’ll be in extended next year, then head to Eugene for the start of his summer. If he hits there, he may get a cup of coffee at South Bend late in the summer.

If you’re looking for the Platonic Ideal of upside, it exists in Davis, who is raw as a hitter but still enthralling in every other possible way. Davis was his conference’s Defensive POY on a 2016 state championship basketball team and didn’t fully commit to baseball until his senior year. His mother was a track and field athlete at the University of Washington and his father is former NBA All-Star, Reggie Theus. In addition to his athletic gifts, scouts rave about Davis’ maturity as a student and a worker (often citing the odd hours he keeps taking care of a goat and llamas at his family home), and all thought he’d be able to cope with likely early-career contact struggles and would work to improve his ability to hit. If Davis grows into a 40 bat, he could be a star because of his power and ability to play center field. There’s some risk he never gets there.

Little’s stuff was down in 2018. He was 92-94 and touching 95 or 96 last year, had a plus curveball, and only lasted until late in the first round because of concerns surrounding his command. This year, he was mostly 89-92 with just an average curveball and no improvement in his ability to locate. There’s a chance he bounces back, but college starters often just never throw as hard as they did in school due to increased usage and a longer season, and that’s possible in this case, too. A left-handed breaking ball like this probably means Little will at least have a future in the bullpen or as a backend starter, but his stuff needs to rebound if he’s going to be more.

Estrada, who signed for $1 million as a sixth rounder in 2017, had a very strong spring and extended spring in Mesa and looked like he might be pushed to short season ball as a 19-year-old. Then, just before short season leagues began, he was placed on the reserve list and didn’t throw again all summer. He is already much thicker and heavier than he was in high school. He was touching 96 before he was shut down and had one of the nastier changeups among teenage arms in Arizona. He struck out a rehabbing Andrew Toles with that changeup twice in extended, though his curveball remains pretty fringy. If his command improves and he finds a third pitch, the curveball or otherwise, he’ll be a mid-rotation option. If not, he projects as a late-inning fastball/changeup reliever.

De la Cruz spent much of 2017 injured, and was sitting 88-92 while rehabbing in preparation for a Fall League stint that was nixed due to a setback. After showing similar velocity in March of 2018, he was suspended for PEDs in the second half of the season. He’s currently throwing about an inning per week for Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Winter League. Peak prospect De la Cruz would show you a plus fastball and breaking ball consistently, as well as some feel for a changeup. Because of all the lost reps due to various injuries over the last several years, his development has been slow. Assuming his stuff comes back, it makes sense to move him quickly as a reliever before something else happens to him, which would make his lack of a strong changeup and command less relevant. In that case, he could be a high-leverage arm.

Jose Albertos’ final spring training start was unremarkable. As usual, he looked like he was in control of two excellent secondary pitches much more than his mid-90s fastball. When the Low-A South Bend’s season began a few days later, Albertos had issues finding the strike zone and lasted just a single inning. The problem snowballed, and his’ control unravelled throughout the course of the year. He walked 32 hitters in 13.2 innings at South Bend, then was sent back to extended spring training for a month before he was reassigned to short-season Eugene, where he walked 33 in 17.2 innings, at times throwing fastballs in the mid-80s just to try to throw a strike. This happens to athletes in various sports from time to time, but not often enough for us to have developed refined ways of helping athletes deal with it, so we just don’t know if Albertos will bounce back. We do know he is very talented. He had three plus pitches at age 19. There was concern about his physical composition and release variability, though remedying one of those things might aid the other. If that were to happen, he could move quickly because his stuff is already in place. Hopefully, Albertos can flush 2018. He’s only 20 and has above-average starter stuff if he can compose his body and mind.

Mills epitomizes the pitchability righty. He has a below-average fastball but locates it well and can add and subtract from its sink and tail in ways that enable him to work like a power pitcher does. He works his sinker and changeup down and to his arm side or runs either of them back onto his glove side corner to set up a slider. Mills struggles to finish his curveball consistently, but the rest of his fairly generic repertoire plays just fine because his command is so good. He’s a big league ready backend starter.

Verdugo signed for $1 million out of Mexico in 2017. He can really pick it at shortstop and could be plus there at maturity. His hands, range, actions, footwork, and athleticism are all superlative, especially considering his age, and while he is physically projectable, he’s not so big-framed that he’s a threat to move off shortstop. Verdugo’s defensive ability was in place when he arrived for camp in the spring. By the start of the summer, he had already filled out a bit and started putting a serious charge into the baseball during BP and, occasionally, in games. That thump tapered off later in the year and Verdugo has some swing length issues that will likely make him strikeout prone, but it’s possible he was just tired in August and that there’s some pop here, too. It’s unlikely that he has a well-rounded, impact profile on offense, but he could be a plus glove at short who also runs into 15-plus bombs if that power develops.

Abbott was a draft spring popup guy as a junior and went in the second round. He struck out 100 more hitters as a junior than he did as a sophomore in just 28 more innings. His scouting report still lead with affection for his command rather than his improved stuff, but there was thought that the stuff might continue to blossom in pro ball. But it has plateaued and Abbott now projects as a low-variance fifth starter. Abbott’s fastball plays best when it’s moving most, which for him is when he’s locating it just off the plate to his arm side; it is hittable everywhere else, including up above the zone. He can locate there, but Abbott is limited in where he can attack with the fastball, which also makes it harder for him to set up his breaking balls. Those are either two separate pitches or one curveball that has pretty variable shape. The best of Abbott’s breakers are vertical curveballs that bite hard and have enough depth to miss bats beneath the zone; his changeup is okay, used often for first pitch strikes later in game.

Thompson split his first full pro season between Hi and Double-A and looks exactly as he did at Auburn. He throws a lot of strikes with an average four-pitch mix, and misses in places where he can’t get hurt when he’s not locating exactly. He’s going to have to pitch off of his two breaking balls very heavily because of his lack of velocity, but Thompson makes diverse use of his slider and curveball, both of which he can spot for strikes early in counts or use at a chase pitch. His ceiling is limited, but he is arguably ready to take a big league mound right now if the Cubs need a competent start.

Miller’s crafty application of pretty average stuff enabled him to strike out a batter per inning at Hi-A Myrtle Beach last season, albeit as a prospect of relatively advanced age. He can manipulate the shape of his fastball — which can cut, sink or ride — which, in Miller’s best starts, he had pinpoint control of. Both of his secondaries are viable big league offerings when they’re located, but Miller gets in trouble, especially with his changeup, when he misses within the strike zone. He has fifth starter traits. Double-A will be an excellent stress test for Miller’s command, which needs to max out if he’s to fit on a big league staff.

Giambrone’s athletic, contemporary, full-body swing makes efficient use of his little frame, and he’s able to tap into in-game pull power because of it. He can also play several different positions (2B, 3B, OF) at varying levels of skill, and he’s a solid-average runner. Fall League discussion surrounding Giambrone often focused on comparing him to David Bote, both because Bote crushed Fall League the year before and because Giambrone will literally be competing with Bote for a roster spot as an infield bench contributor. Giambrone is a better, more versatile defender, but Bote has more power.

Morel has visible on-field leadership qualities and was the vocal protagonist of an AZL club team that lost the league championship series to the Dodgers. He’s wiry and projectable but already strong, and he has present pull power that projects to plus. He also has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and has seen time at short, but he almost certainly will move to third at some point, and there’s a non-zero chance he ends up in right field. Morel has some pitch recognition issues that lead to strikeouts. Those create uncertainty about his profile, but they’ll be more acceptable if he can stay on the dirt. He could be an athletic, power-hitting corner bat in the big leagues so long as he hits a little bit.

Cruz is a sinker/changeup prospect in a world where four seam/breaking ball prospects are increasingly desired, but it’s a good sinker and changeup to go along with advanced control. He’s not as physically projectable as most 19-year-olds, but Cruz should add a little bit of velocity simply through physical maturity, and his fastball’s movement profile pairs nicely with the change, which should allow both to thrive as he moves up. He profiles as a no. 4 or 5 starter.

Looking at his stuff without all the context that encompasses ‘mound presence,’ Mekkes is a three-pitch middle-relief prospect. His fastball typically sits in the low 90s and his slider is solid average, perhaps a tick above. But Mekkes is a gargantuan 6-foot-7, takes a large stride toward the plate, and releases the ball much closer to home than the average pitcher, creating a Doug Fister-like effect that allows his stuff to play up. He has a 1.16 career ERA in pro ball and has K’d more than a batter per inning. Like most XXL pitchers in their early 20s, Mekkes struggles with control, but hitters’ inability to adjust to his delivery in short stints has limited their overall ability to reach base. As a result, he has a 1.05 career WHIP despite an 12% career walk rate. It’s hard to say how this rare type of deception will play in the big leagues, assuming upper-level hitters are still flummoxed by it as Mekkes moves on. Jordan Walden was dominant for a half decade with a similar type of deception but he had much better stuff.

Hatch hasn’t developed the control typical of a starter, so while he does have a fairly deep repertoire, he projects in middle relief, where his fastball might tick up beyond where we have it projected.

Sierra has moved one level at a time since signing in 2015 for $2.5 million and finally left the womb of the complex and spent his summer in Eugene. He has plus power right now at age 20 but he struggles to get to it in games. This is a long-levered hitter whose necessary hitting development will likely take a while. He has the power to profile as an everyday right fielder if it does.

Like several Cubs prospects who were handed aggressive assignments for their age, Velazquez struggled at Low-A and was eventually demoted. He performed after being sent back down to Eugene (.250/.322/.458) but was still plagued by the plate discipline issues that were his undoing in the spring at South Bend. Velazquez has big power, and there’s ceiling here if he can hit, though he’ll need to be more selective if he’s going to. He’ll also have to develop on defense.

We assume Correa was hurt for much of 2018 (he threw just two AZL innings) but it’s unclear what ailed him. In 2017, he had some wild fluctuations in velocity (he was seen throwing anywhere between 93 and 100, but mostly sitting 94-98), which continued when he threw in 2018. Correa was 94-96 in the spring and then didn’t pitch until late in the summer when he was 92-93. If his arm strength bounces back, he’ll move up this list.

The Cubs didn’t sign Rodriguez until very late in the amateur signing calendar. He signed in early May of 2017 and barely pitched that year, only seeing consistent reps for the first time in 2018. Rodriguez is a wispy 6-foot-2. He was up to 92 in extended spring training but sat in the upper-80s in the DSL. He can spin a good breaking ball and his fastballs spins well relative to its velocity.

Franklin was only throwing in the low-80s as a high school junior, but his velocity spiked later in the year and he threw much harder the following year. He now sits in the low-90s. Franklin also has a sizable frame and can spin it. He signed for a well-over slot $540,000 as a 6th rounder. He’s a really high variance prospect because the velocity is fairly new and might keep coming.

60 FV Prospects

Several freak injuries upended Senzel’s 2018. He missed most of May battling vertigo symptoms for the second time in nine months (they first started in late August ’17), then fractured a finger in late-June and missed the rest of the season. He was supposed to play in the Fall League, but a return of the left elbow pain he had played through during the year became severe enough that he needed an MRI, which revealed bone spurs. He had surgery and was shut down for the year. When Senzel did play, he was very good and slashed .310/.378/.509 in 44 games at Triple-A while playing second base for the first time in affiliated ball.

Senzel’s likely future defensive home is still to be determined. He wasn’t a very good defensive third baseman early in college but became one as a junior. The presence of Eugenio Suarez led to reps at second base, and Scooter Gennett’s emergence led to what was supposed to be reps in left and center field this fall before Senzel needed surgery. The departure of Billy Hamilton leaves an obvious hole that he could potentially fill, but he hasn’t been seen playing center enough to know for sure. At the very least, he has stumbled into defensive versatility.

Mostly though, Senzel hits. He doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than playing core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power. He has the skills and polish of a near-ready star, and the injuries don’t seem like they’re going to be a chronic thing.

Trammell has uncommon on-field self-awareness for a two-sport high school athlete who was only 20 last year. He has excellent plate discipline and an all-fields, gap-to-gap approach that suits his plus-plus speed; everything he slices down the line or sprays into the gap goes for extra-bases.

Trammell also put on a shocking display of power during BP at the Futures Game and hit two absolute seeds during the game. He never did anything remotely like that in the Fall League (nor, frankly, did any of the other prospects who played in D.C. and then later in Arizona) and actually struggled to turn on balls there, but there’s a chance of huge, if dormant, in-game power here, too.

Though Trammell runs well enough to play center field (by a lot), his arm strength still might limit him to left field. That’s where we have him projected, where we think he’ll be a Carl Crawford or Brett Gardner type of defender. He projects as an excellent leadoff hitter with some pop, but there’s a chance he ends up hitting for more power at some point.

50 FV Prospects

Greene is a generational on-mound athlete whose 2018 season ended with an elbow sprain. A strong two month run of starts in the early summer culminated in a 7-inning shutout start (2 H, 0 BB, 10 K, it took 69 pitches) on July 2 at Lake County followed by his feat of strength at the Futures Game. Eleven days later, Greene’s season was over. He had a PRP injection and rehabbed the sprained UCL in Arizona with broad plans to start throwing during the winter and so far, he seems on track for spring training.

Greene’s development was already pretty likely to be slow. He was able to throw strikes with that upper-90s fastball in high school, but his breaking ball was just okay, and he had no use for a changeup, so both of his secondary pitches were behind other pitchers in the class. Teams needed to project heavily on Greene’s stuff to buy him as a top five pick, but he’s such an exceptional athlete and success-oriented person that many of them did. Focusing solely on pitching for the first time, Greene’s slider improved in 2018. His ceiling will be dictated by the continued development of his secondary stuff.

India was a well-known prep prospect in South Florida, but the combination of a solid, but not spectacular, tool set and seven-figure asking price sent him to Florida. His first two years were about as expected; India got regular ABs but didn’t have any performative breakthroughs. In his draft year, India lost bad weight and added some strength, made some offensive adjustments, and exploded, torching the best conference in the country to the tune of a 1.21 OPS and 21 homers in 68 games. Scouts saw early in the spring that his tools had improved and the performance along with them, but it wasn’t until mid-way through the season that he seemed like a sure first round pick. He eventually looked like a consensus top 10 pick in the weeks leading up to the draft.

India has 55 raw power (60 for some scouts) and is a 55 defender with a 55 arm at third base. He played some shortstop at Florida and could be a limited-range fill-in there, with a chance to fit at second base if needed for longer stretches. We see India continuing to tap into his power, with something like a 50 hit tool and 55 power, with slightly more strikeouts than league average, but has the ability to be a hit-over-power type of player if he and the Reds choose that kind of approach.

Stephenson flew under the national radar during summer showcase season as a prep prospect because he didn’t go to all the big events, but Georgia area scouts knew to keep close tabs on him. He broke out in the spring, going from a top five round follow to the 11th overall pick. Multiple GMs showed up to many of his late playoff games since they didn’t have the same extensive history with him that they did with other top picks. Stephenson has a rare toolbox for a catcher, with a 70-grade arm and surprisingly advanced defensive skills for a 6-foot-4 backstop, along with plus raw power.

Stephenson isn’t a runner and his hit tool has been a little inconsistent, due to both his power-focused offensive approach and multiple injuries in pro ball (broken wrist, concussion). He performed well in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2018 and caught the whole year, which has him on the upswing, primed for a taste of Double-A in 2019 and a future as a big league regular in view.

Like Stephenson, Santillan wasn’t a summer showcase favorite, only appearing at one fall event where he showed low-90’s velocity and not much else. He emerged in the spring (this always seems to happen with at least one Texas prep arm), running his heater up to 98 mph and flashing a good breaking ball at times. But Santillan was still a work-in-progress strike-thrower and most teams considered him a reliever. Cincinnati took him 49th overall.

He has progressed well in pro ball, with the Reds’ belief in his makeup and athleticism paying off, as he’s gotten more consistent across the board and is now a little more likely to be a starter than reliever. He still mostly has the big stuff he flashed as a prep, though his velo and spin rates are slightly down. Santillan has mid-rotation upside, but his fallback options if the command/consistency doesn’t work in a starter role would be an above-average multi-inning or high leverage reliever, which is much more valuable now than it was in 2015. Santillan could open 2019 in Double- or Triple-A but the pitching-starved Reds seems likely to give him a big league look at some point next year.

Siri is a superb talent who can’t help but take max-effort swings at just about everything. His approach and early-career maturity issues (which have improved but still exist) slowed his development a bit and he only has half a season at Double-A despite being 23 and having played pro ball for six seasons. But Siri has great bat speed, power, and an innate feel for impacting the bottom of the baseball and lifting it into the air. If he weren’t so aggressive (he appeared to be under a mandate to see more pitches in 2018) he’d be an easy plus future hit, plus future power center field prospect in the middle of our top 100.

But the volatility created by the impatience, combined with Siri’s noticeably thicker 2018 frame, has created apprehension. His upside is huge, but so is the risk. Ultimately, he shares many traits with Phillies outfielder Nick Williams (though Siri’s a better defender by a wide margin), and, like Williams, Siri might just be such an amazing offensive talent that he’ll be fine eventually despite his issues and several developmental bumps in the road.

45 FV Prospects

There’s a lot of disagreement in baseball about whether or not Gutierrez’s fastball is going to play in the big leagues. It’s certainly not slow, and routinely creeps into the mid-90s. And the combination of Gutierrez’s size and drop-and-drive delivery creates flat plane that plays well with good curveballs, which he has. But the fastball doesn’t spin and doesn’t sneak over the top of hitter’s barrels, so there’s some fear he’ll be homer-prone. Gutierrez is also an incredible athlete with a video game breaking ball and improving changeup, so we like his chances to turn into something, just probably a no. 4/5 starter. He siged for $4.75 million late in 2016 and spent all of 2018 at Double-A Pensacola.

Siani was a well-known name to scouts years before he was drafted because as an underclassman, he was great at USA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars. That put Siani (as well as Alek Thomas and Jarred Kelenic) much further ahead of the notoriety/perceived polish curve than is typical for cold weather hitters. Siani isn’t physically projectable and doesn’t have big raw power, so he isn’t the sexy upside high school player to whom clubs are drawn, but he does have a long track record of hitting and showing plus defensive ability in center field. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm (90-92 on the mound) and gets great jumps on fly balls. There’s a real chance Siani could have four tools that grade out as a 60, along with power that’s a 45 or 50, and he’s much closer to hitting that upside than most 19-year-olds.

40+ FV Prospects

Between his lack of reps during the ’16-’17 Series Nacional in Cuba and the arduous process of defecting, followed by slowly working out for teams, then waiting for the 2018 season to start, Garcia played very little baseball for the several months leading up to last season and it showed when he finally put on a uniform. The 20-year-old was given an assignment that matched his loud tools (teams who saw him work out were putting 6’s and 7’s on his speed, arm, and defense at short) but not his readiness, and he was bad early in the year at Low-A Dayton. He came on, statistically, at the end of the year, but didn’t walk much in either phase.

Latin American players who have spent their entire lives playing ball back home, or in Florida or Arizona, sometimes struggle with the early-April chill of the Midwest League when they’re first assigned there; as if being 20 in a full-season league after not playing for over a year wasn’t enough, Garcia may have struggled with this. 2019 should be a more representative sample statistically of what Garcia is. There’s no question about his run, field or throw tools, and he was seen at a bat-first prospect early in his Cuban career, so that might be in there, too. If he can develop some confidence around his offense, Garcia could quickly jump into 50 FV territory, which is where we had him last year based on how he worked out for teams. He signed for $5 million.

Richardson was an intriguing two-way athlete on the showcase circuit, then hit 97 mph repeatedly early in his draft spring and moved into top two round contention. His stuff backed up a bit down the stretch. Richardson had not thrown as much as many of his peers and lacked their stamina, though this could be spun into a positive, namely Richardson’s arm being relatively fresh. Late in the spring, he was working more in the low-90’s rather than 93-96 mph, and his shorter stature and stride length led his fastball to be hittable. The Reds are gambling on the plus fastball returning as he builds strength, experience, and stamina in his arm in a starting role, and he has no. 3/4 starter potential with good, clear checkpoints to watch that will indicate improvement, including fastball rebound and maintaining his stuff into the summer.

40 FV Prospects

It’s still unclear to us whether or not anyone knew Friedl was draft-eligible as sophomore in 2016. At the very least, he was overlooked playing on a weaker team in a lightly-scouted conference. He went undrafted, which allowed him to play for College Team USA, who only found out about him from a fortuitous tip, later in the summer.

Friedl was the sparkplug on the heavily-scouted team that included multiple future first round picks, and a bidding war for him amongst teams that hadn’t yet spent their entire 2016 draft pool ensued toward the end of Team USA’s run. Friedl is a plus-plus runner with good baseball instrincts and a contact-first approach at the plate. He has sneaky raw power that he may tap into with swing adjustments.

Somewhat similar to Stuart Fairchild, both have outcomes that range from upper-level 40-man occupant to low-end regular, but Friedl’s bat is more stable and he’s left-handed, so we have him ahead. He’s almost a lock to hang around the big leagues for at least a few years in some role, even if it’s as a fifth outfielder.

Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington: he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, his slider improved into an above-average pitch, and his command also improved a bit. Kuhnel’s conditioning and delivery improved simultaneously and he’s moved to the top of the heap among the relief-only arms in this system. If he continues performing like he did in 2018, he could get a big league look in 2019.

Fairchild had a great draft year. He had a plus arm, above-average speed and defense, solid-average raw power, and performed on paper. The concern was that his swing was a little stiff and had a grooved, invariable path, and it was thought that this might limit his offensive upside and relegate him to a fourth outfielder role. A year and change later, and that’s largely still the report, with likely outcomes ranging from low-end everyday center fielder to 40-man filler/emergency callup depending on how his offense progresses.

Mella (along with Adam Duvall) came back from San Francisco in the 2015 Mike Leake trade. He’s always been on the starter/reliever bubble, in large part because his fastball doesn’t play quite as well as its pure velocity would seem to indicate and because the lack of a truly average changeup forces Mella to use his fastball very heavily. His stuff backed up just a tad last year. He should still be a no. 5 starter or middle reliever if it doesn’t any more.

Spillane burst onto the prospect scene with a gaudy stat line in his draft year at Illinois: 1.401 OPS, 23 homers in 50 games. He’s also not a bad athlete, with a chance to fit everyday in right field, though first base is still his most likely home. Spillane has 60 raw power, plenty for a corner regular, but he needs to either get to all of that raw power (game power is one of his better present skills), or be a 45 to 50 grade hitter to profile in an everyday role. With a limited high-level track record and 41% strikeout rate in his pro debut, that’s still an open question, but that’s also why he lasted until the third round.

Herget is unique among prospects. He’s a side-arming righty with the typical frisbee slider, but he also hits 96 mph and has a good enough changeup and command to get lefties out, too. Herget started in college, worked around 90 mph and was a middling prospect, but the Reds saw potential in his athleticism, his feel to pitch, and his arm slot, and projected he’d experience a velo boost in short stints. They were right. He’s likely to carve out some kind of middle relief role in the big leagues, and will probably get an extended look in 2019.

There are ways to nitpick Lantigua — he’s very likely to move out of center field entirely and he also strikes out a lot– but, ultimately, he’s a switch-hitter with plus power whose two swings are further along than is typical for most 19-year-old switch hitters. Lantigua has big time thump from both sides of the plate and had 26 extra-base hits in just 52 AZL games. The strikeout issues make him a low-floor prospect, but there are very few switch-hitters in the minors with this kind of playable pop, and if Lantigua can hit, find a way to stay viable in center field, or both, he could be an impact regular.

Thomas has a unique skillset, which could develop in a number of different ways, packed into a fullback-like body. An everyday corner bat is his realistic upside. He has explosive strength in his hands, which creates 70 raw power despite ordinary bat speed. He’s a well below-average runner, but has quick feet due in part to his football background. Thomas also closed for UCF, sitting in the low-90’s on the mound. Most scouts project him at first base, but he’ll get some looks at third and there’s a chance he’ll get a look at converting to catcher because of the arm. Those most optimistic see arm strength, a competitive mentatilty, and the short-area explosion necessary to move up the defensive spectrum from first base. There’s lift in the swing and current game power skills that make up for a tendency to chase sliders off the plate. Thomas was an age-eligible sophomore who lasted until later in the draft, where the Reds met his overslot ($287,000) asking price.

We don’t trust Bautista’s Pioneer league numbers (.330/.386/.541, 12% K% at age 20) because of the hitting environment, but we also don’t want to undersell his physical ability. This is a plus runner with plus bat speed who is also tough to strike out because he has good hand-eye coordination. However, Bautista has balance and swing path issues at the plate that limit the quality of his contact in certain parts of the zone. Once he reaches a level of the minors where pitchers can exploit this, he’s going to have to make an adjustment. If he can do that, his ceiling is significant, because he has rare ability. We’d just like to see the signs that he can.

Hendrix went in the 5th round in 2016 as a relief-only, power curveball guy (you could also just call it a slider, we’ve heard it both ways) with some command issues. He’s still largely the same prospect. His mid-90’s velocity stands out a little less now than a few years ago and he’s still a little wild, but he is learning how to use his breaking ball more effectively. Hendrix seems likely, barring injury, to carve out some kind of major league role in middle relief starting in the nexy year or two.

Though he had mostly been throwing in the upper 80s as an underclassman, Lopez’s ticked into the mid-90s as he entered the fall before his junior year at Seton Hall. His elbow got sore. After an effort to rehab without surgery, Lopez had TJ, missed his junior seasonand fell to the sixth round.

Though his peak velocity hasn’t returned, he averages about 92 mph on a fastball that touches 95 and features enough life that it’s capable of missing bats up in the zone. His secondaries are mostly average, and he should debut in 2019 as a relief or backend starter option.

Of the shortstops on the main portion of this list, Hernandez has the best chance to stay at the position. His hands and actions are both characteristic of a promising teenage shortstop and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield. Hernandez has also performed reasonably well with the bat as a pro, which is surprising given his clear lack of physical strength. He could have a below-average offensive profile and stay at short, which gives him a chance to be a 50 if he gets stronger into his twenties. If not, he could still be a low-end regular or utiltiy type. He turns 20 in April and should see full-season ball for the first time in 2019.

Marinan had a velocity jump during his draft spring and has had some issues in the two years since dialing in his arm speed and refining his delivery. His velo has varied a bit, but when he’s on, he’ll work 92-94, hit 97 mph, flash an above-average breaking ball, and have the look of a potenial league-average — or a bit better — starter. Other days, he’s just a big guy with a clean arm, some velocity, and little else. He’s further along in the search for starter traits than lefty Jacob Heatherly is, but you can lump them in the same group as talented young arms that need to show consistency.

35+ FV Prospects

Built like an old school in-the-box NFL safety, Beltre is a physical dynamo whose entire offensive profile is undercut by his extreme propensity to hit the ball into the ground. Beltre has a nearly 60% ground ball rate over each of the last two years. He does a lot of other stuff: he has raw power, great feel for the strike zone, and is a plus runner, with well-regarded makeup. The quality of his in-game contact is simply not good right now. Stiffness in Beltre’s hitting hands could mean this issue is less about a swing change than it is about innate talent.

Case is a bat-first prospect with power and some chance to stick at second base, who signed for $1 million as a 2017 fourth round pick. Early-career hip surgery has limited his defensive mobility, so he’s more of a wait-and-see, somewhat one-dimensional prospect to keep an eye on in 2019. If everything comes together he could be a passable second baseman with game power.

Heatherly looked like a first round pick heading into his draft spring, then had command issues and slipped. He then had some velocity issues early in pro ball. The command still isn’t there and even Reds’ personnel describe him as a ball of clay, but he was working 92-94 mph in instructional league and he can spin it, and some think he may turn a corner next season, where his no. 4 starter potential could become more obvious.

Yon has an NBA shooting guard build at a long-limbed 6-foot-5. He towers over almost all of his peers and has rare physical projection. He might grow elite raw power, though it will be a challenge for him to hit due to his lever length. Hitters like this often don’t develop viable hit tools until they’re well into their mid-twenties. Yon may take another five years to develop a playable hit tool, but as long as the power develops, he’ll get getting chances to learn how to make contact.

Santana is a R/R corner power bat with a plus arm. His swing needs polish if he’s to hit, and his defensive actions need polish if he’s going to stay at third. There’s a chance he moves to right field and strikes out too much to profile, but he may also stay at third and hit for big power if his ills are cured. He’s on pace to be a 2020 19-year-old in full-season ball.