2019 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians by Dan Szymborski December 5, 2018 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. ZiPS Projections 20192018ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters Mind the gap! One wouldn’t think of the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians as having similar front offices or philosophies, but they ended up in a similar place when it came to their offenses, with each boasting a of couple MVP-types who carried a disproportionately large portion of the load. Now, the Indians don’t have a replacement level Ian Desmond in the lineup, and the lesser lights don’t cost quite as much, but it still leaves Cleveland with a fairly unbalanced offense. The outfield is the biggest problem, with Michael Brantley, who did not receive a qualifying offer, still possessing the third-best batter projection on the team. While Cleveland’s still good enough otherwise that they can win the Central without much of a struggle — even if they trade a starting pitcher and go into the season with their existing outfield — it’s not ideal. Pitchers ZiPS really, really likes Shane Bieber. It likes him to such a degree that when I saw the nearly four-WAR projection, I fired up his profile page and checked the Steamer projection to make sure I hadn’t accidentally broken something. Like the time I initially projected Jose Molina to have a 1.200 batting average. I talked more about this in Cleveland’s Elegy for ’18 just a few days ago, but it’s understandable why the Indians are willing to talk pitcher trades. The team is still hopeful about Danny Salazar and while I can’t get in their brains, I suspect they feel the difference between Danny Salazar (or the other fallback options) and Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer is smaller than the difference between nothing and the prospects they could get in return. While I would’ve preferred the team to at least give Brantley a qualifying offer and pinch pennies a few years down the road, one can at least understand their thinking. Bench/Prospects There’s no savior coming to bail out Cleveland’s outfield. ZiPS was already worried about Bradley Zimmer before his shoulder surgery and does not think Bobby Bradley is likely to be an above-average major league player. Nolan Jones‘ projection is promising given that he played at Hi-A, which is something at least. There are a lot of very competent role player-types in the system, but ideally, you wouldn’t see a Max Moroff or an Andrew Calica this close to the top of the table. Things are brighter in the near-term on the pitching front. Triston McKenzie’s projection isn’t exciting yet, but he just turned 21 towards the end of the season, so there’s a lot of time for him to grow. Plus, there are better comps for him after his disappointing no. 1 comp, Arnie Gooch. Walker Lockett didn’t have a great debut — you can kinda tell what happened, in that the pitch classification algorithms didn’t recognize his sinker as a sinker — but his control wasn’t a problem in the minors. Something bad has probably happened if he gets anywhere near those projected innings in the majors rather than in Triple-A, but given the performance of the typical fifth starter, he’s probably useful if there’s an emergency. James Hoyt, who signed to a minor-league contract, gets a shockingly good projection. His 3.30 FIP from 2017 earned him only the smallest sip of coffee in Houston in a season marred by oblique and knee injuries (though he did pitch well for Fresno when healthy). One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’s depth chart playing time, not the playing time that ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site. Batters – Counting Stats Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Francisco Lindor B 25 SS 156 628 108 182 38 4 30 91 64 101 21 7 Jose Ramirez B 26 3B 156 570 105 167 43 4 29 93 78 75 28 7 Michael Brantley L 32 LF 126 491 69 146 31 1 13 69 44 56 11 2 Edwin Encarnacion R 36 DH 127 464 70 114 19 1 27 93 67 122 2 0 Jason Kipnis L 32 2B 133 500 67 126 30 2 16 64 51 112 8 3 Yandy Diaz R 27 3B 137 485 65 132 21 2 5 42 68 111 3 3 Leonys Martin L 31 CF 114 407 53 100 19 3 12 44 30 110 14 6 Bradley Zimmer L 26 CF 108 379 49 83 16 2 11 43 36 162 21 5 Yonder Alonso L 32 1B 134 447 61 111 20 0 22 71 55 119 1 0 Jordan Luplow R 25 LF 125 434 60 104 24 3 12 60 46 112 7 4 Andrew Calica L 25 CF 108 412 52 96 17 3 6 35 36 120 16 6 Max Moroff B 26 2B 112 362 50 75 15 2 10 53 57 131 6 3 Eric Stamets R 27 SS 93 310 33 63 13 1 8 29 21 99 6 1 Bobby Bradley L 23 1B 132 498 63 110 25 3 24 75 45 173 1 1 Yu Chang R 23 SS 129 471 56 102 23 3 12 54 39 162 5 4 Brandon Guyer R 33 RF 100 240 31 56 13 1 6 28 17 58 2 1 Nolan Jones L 21 3B 118 447 58 102 19 1 15 50 60 169 1 1 Tyler Naquin L 28 CF 95 309 38 80 14 2 8 36 23 93 4 3 Roberto Perez R 30 C 66 184 19 35 9 1 4 24 24 67 1 0 Eric Haase R 26 C 111 397 45 77 17 3 16 52 28 172 2 2 Oscar Mercado R 24 CF 131 493 59 120 23 3 7 43 39 119 29 15 Jodd Carter R 22 CF 126 454 51 98 17 3 12 47 36 141 8 7 Ernie Clement R 23 SS 103 431 50 103 23 3 2 34 25 43 14 10 Melky Cabrera B 34 LF 125 479 53 135 28 2 9 67 29 65 2 1 Greg Allen B 26 CF 128 450 58 107 20 3 5 35 30 108 27 8 Mike Freeman L 31 2B 105 364 41 87 14 2 4 30 26 92 6 3 Ka’ai Tom L 25 CF 114 426 49 95 20 3 10 45 36 125 11 8 Mark Mathias R 24 2B 117 415 50 87 24 2 7 38 42 126 8 2 Connor Marabell L 25 RF 125 476 51 119 26 4 9 51 23 91 5 4 Rob Brantly L 29 C 80 270 29 64 11 1 6 29 10 60 0 1 Sam Haggerty B 25 3B 101 363 42 73 17 4 4 30 45 125 20 8 Daniel Johnson L 23 RF 114 449 51 107 20 5 11 47 24 123 18 7 Sicnarf Loopstok R 26 C 84 288 35 58 11 1 10 33 29 112 4 4 Mitch Longo L 24 LF 111 434 51 107 22 2 7 40 29 109 14 6 Rajai Davis R 38 CF 100 235 37 53 10 1 2 10 14 60 20 6 Li-Jen Chu R 25 C 103 387 40 89 17 1 10 40 23 105 1 0 Drew Maggi R 30 2B 84 286 29 63 12 1 2 21 22 79 10 5 Dorssys Paulino R 24 LF 75 257 28 53 10 1 6 25 26 81 2 2 Mike Papi L 26 RF 105 350 43 70 16 1 9 34 50 128 2 2 Brandon Barnes R 33 CF 134 449 47 98 22 2 8 40 30 154 11 5 Daniel Salters L 26 C 81 285 26 55 10 0 5 22 16 100 1 1 Michael Martinez B 36 2B 71 204 21 47 10 1 2 14 11 50 3 3 Adam Rosales R 36 2B 117 325 35 67 15 1 9 37 23 102 2 3 Trayce Thompson R 28 RF 103 326 37 62 15 2 10 36 24 119 5 3 Joe Sever R 28 3B 123 468 47 105 22 0 8 41 25 121 5 2 Mike Napoli R 37 1B 97 335 40 55 8 1 17 44 37 146 1 1 Tyler Krieger B 25 LF 125 477 51 107 21 3 6 40 33 133 12 9 Nellie Rodriguez R 25 1B 117 408 46 71 15 1 18 50 43 215 0 0 Jorma Rodriguez R 23 2B 120 423 38 94 15 2 2 26 17 107 10 7 Todd Hankins R 28 LF 98 337 31 64 10 2 5 24 21 127 12 6 Batters – Rate Stats Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Francisco Lindor .290 .357 .506 125 .217 .306 7.0 11 6.9 Troy Tulowitzki Jose Ramirez .293 .380 .535 139 .242 .296 8.0 4 6.3 Chipper Jones Michael Brantley .297 .355 .444 110 .147 .315 6.2 0 2.2 Dale Mitchell Edwin Encarnacion .246 .344 .466 112 .220 .276 5.8 0 2.1 Ben Oglivie Jason Kipnis .252 .326 .416 95 .164 .296 4.9 1 2.0 Damion Easley Yandy Diaz .272 .362 .355 92 .082 .344 4.7 1 1.8 Al Gallagher Leonys Martin .246 .300 .396 82 .150 .309 4.3 7 1.5 Lou Collier Bradley Zimmer .219 .298 .359 73 .140 .350 4.0 5 1.1 Ty Gainey Yonder Alonso .248 .332 .441 102 .192 .291 5.3 -3 1.0 Paul Sorrento Jordan Luplow .240 .318 .392 87 .152 .297 4.4 4 0.9 Bob Bathe Andrew Calica .233 .316 .333 73 .100 .315 3.8 3 0.7 Andy Tomberlin Max Moroff .207 .317 .343 75 .135 .294 3.7 1 0.6 Mark Bellhorn Eric Stamets .203 .263 .329 55 .126 .271 3.1 8 0.6 Kelly Dransfeldt Bobby Bradley .221 .289 .428 86 .207 .286 4.3 4 0.5 Eric Valent Yu Chang .217 .285 .355 68 .138 .303 3.4 2 0.5 Scott Moore Brandon Guyer .233 .327 .371 85 .138 .284 4.3 1 0.4 Mike Devereaux Nolan Jones .228 .320 .376 84 .148 .331 4.2 -6 0.4 Rico Washington Tyler Naquin .259 .312 .395 86 .136 .346 4.4 -2 0.4 Len Gabrielson Roberto Perez .190 .284 .315 59 .125 .274 3.0 3 0.3 Tom Nieto Eric Haase .194 .252 .373 62 .179 .292 3.1 3 0.3 Bob Geren Oscar Mercado .243 .305 .345 72 .101 .308 3.7 0 0.3 Lemmie Miller Jodd Carter .216 .278 .346 64 .130 .286 3.2 7 0.3 Brett Clevlen Ernie Clement .239 .286 .320 60 .081 .262 3.1 6 0.3 Aaron Capista Melky Cabrera .282 .322 .405 91 .123 .311 4.9 -5 0.2 Danny Cater Greg Allen .238 .305 .329 68 .091 .303 3.8 -2 0.1 Winston Ficklin Mike Freeman .239 .293 .321 63 .082 .310 3.3 3 0.0 Tommy Shields Ka’ai Tom .223 .289 .354 69 .131 .292 3.4 1 0.0 Rashad Eldridge Mark Mathias .210 .292 .328 64 .118 .284 3.4 0 0.0 Mike Neal Connor Marabell .250 .286 .378 74 .128 .293 3.8 4 0.0 Robin Jennings Rob Brantly .237 .275 .352 65 .115 .284 3.3 -1 0.0 Jeff Smith Sam Haggerty .201 .292 .303 59 .102 .295 3.1 3 -0.1 Joe Redfield Daniel Johnson .238 .286 .379 74 .140 .305 3.9 2 -0.1 Tom Dunbar Sicnarf Loopstok .201 .287 .351 68 .149 .289 3.3 -4 -0.2 Kwahyaj Owens Mitch Longo .247 .296 .355 72 .108 .314 3.8 2 -0.2 Pat Sheridan Rajai Davis .226 .277 .302 54 .077 .295 3.3 0 -0.4 Lou Brock Li-Jen Chu .230 .278 .357 67 .127 .290 3.5 -7 -0.4 Jason Hill Drew Maggi .220 .284 .290 53 .070 .298 2.9 1 -0.5 Ray Holbert Dorssys Paulino .206 .283 .323 60 .117 .276 3.0 1 -0.6 Gerad Cawhorn Mike Papi .200 .304 .329 68 .129 .286 3.3 -2 -0.7 Bo Dodson Brandon Barnes .218 .275 .330 59 .111 .314 3.1 -1 -0.7 John Shelby Daniel Salters .193 .247 .281 40 .088 .278 2.3 1 -0.7 Fausto Tejero Michael Martinez .230 .269 .319 55 .088 .296 2.8 -3 -0.8 Dave McKay Adam Rosales .206 .262 .342 58 .135 .271 2.9 -3 -0.9 Shane Halter Trayce Thompson .190 .247 .340 53 .150 .264 2.8 3 -0.9 James Clifford Joe Sever .224 .269 .323 56 .098 .286 3.0 -2 -1.1 Josh Arteaga Mike Napoli .164 .256 .346 57 .182 .221 2.8 0 -1.2 Deron Johnson Tyler Krieger .224 .279 .319 58 .094 .299 3.0 1 -1.4 Ralph Kraus Nellie Rodriguez .174 .255 .348 58 .174 .303 2.9 -2 -1.6 Nick Sosa Jorma Rodriguez .222 .260 .281 44 .059 .293 2.4 -1 -1.7 Abigail Sandoval Todd Hankins .190 .242 .276 37 .086 .288 2.2 -1 -2.1 Jay Sitzman Pitchers – Counting Stats Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Corey Kluber R 33 17 8 3.05 30 30 195.0 168 66 19 37 201 Carlos Carrasco R 32 16 9 3.39 30 29 180.3 164 68 22 39 198 Trevor Bauer R 28 13 7 3.30 29 28 171.7 149 63 15 59 193 Shane Bieber R 24 13 8 3.71 32 32 187.0 195 77 20 30 156 Michael Clevinger R 28 12 9 3.92 32 30 177.0 162 77 21 68 176 Brad Hand L 29 5 2 2.95 70 0 73.3 56 24 8 25 99 Danny Salazar R 29 8 6 3.94 20 19 102.7 93 45 13 42 115 Andrew Miller L 34 5 2 2.77 49 0 48.7 38 15 5 16 65 Walker Lockett R 25 8 8 4.70 26 25 141.7 156 74 22 37 103 Cody Allen R 30 6 3 3.66 66 0 64.0 54 26 7 27 75 James Hoyt R 32 3 1 3.28 44 0 46.7 41 17 5 17 56 Chih-Wei Hu R 25 6 6 4.87 30 18 112.7 125 61 19 31 83 Cody Anderson R 28 5 5 4.83 23 17 95.0 106 51 15 28 67 Aaron Civale R 24 7 7 5.01 23 23 118.7 142 66 20 22 71 Adam Plutko R 27 9 9 5.06 28 24 137.0 151 77 24 43 107 Mitch Talbot R 35 6 6 4.95 20 19 100.0 112 55 11 44 57 Cole Sulser R 29 5 4 3.94 50 0 59.3 55 26 7 23 65 Dan Otero R 34 2 1 3.83 52 0 54.0 57 23 6 6 37 Josh Tomlin R 34 6 6 4.87 26 16 96.0 109 52 20 12 68 Oliver Perez L 37 2 1 3.25 56 0 36.0 31 13 4 12 42 Jefry Rodriguez R 25 8 9 4.98 30 25 132.0 137 73 15 75 105 Triston McKenzie R 21 7 7 5.03 19 19 96.7 102 54 16 40 86 Tyler Olson L 29 3 2 3.86 56 0 44.3 40 19 6 17 51 Adam Cimber R 28 6 4 4.12 63 0 67.7 71 31 9 14 51 Josh Martin R 29 3 2 4.02 32 0 40.3 39 18 4 14 38 Ben Taylor R 26 4 3 4.25 48 0 53.0 55 25 8 16 51 Nick Goody R 27 2 1 4.17 42 0 45.3 40 21 8 17 57 Henry Martinez R 25 3 2 4.27 46 0 52.7 54 25 5 19 41 Stephen Fife R 32 5 5 4.92 18 15 78.7 93 43 9 24 42 Jean Carlos Mejia R 22 5 6 5.08 23 14 88.7 94 50 11 43 65 Jon Edwards R 31 2 2 4.47 43 0 44.3 39 22 6 26 53 Alexi Ogando R 35 2 2 4.62 30 3 39.0 41 20 4 18 27 Luke Eubank R 25 4 3 4.53 43 0 51.7 52 26 5 27 42 Sam Hentges L 22 5 6 5.44 22 22 99.3 107 60 14 59 77 Jordan Milbrath R 27 5 4 4.77 41 0 60.3 62 32 5 37 46 Kyle Dowdy R 26 9 10 5.45 27 19 110.7 126 67 19 45 82 James Karinchak R 23 3 3 4.97 42 0 41.7 33 23 4 42 54 Kieran Lovegrove R 24 2 2 5.07 42 0 55.0 55 31 6 38 47 Jeff Beliveau L 32 1 2 5.22 37 0 39.7 38 23 6 27 40 Myles Jaye R 27 7 9 5.67 22 20 106.3 126 67 18 38 61 Preston Claiborne R 31 1 2 5.58 28 1 30.7 33 19 6 15 26 Neil Ramirez R 30 2 3 5.13 54 0 52.7 50 30 11 24 65 Adam Wilk L 31 6 7 5.71 23 22 126.0 152 80 24 46 76 Nick Pasquale R 28 5 6 5.74 30 9 69.0 77 44 9 44 50 R.C. Orlan L 28 2 3 5.66 33 1 41.3 44 26 8 24 38 Mitch Brown R 25 3 4 5.81 37 4 52.7 50 34 4 58 49 Rob Kaminsky L 24 1 1 6.12 25 0 25.0 26 17 3 23 18 Shao-Ching Chiang R 25 7 10 5.87 25 24 130.3 163 85 27 31 68 Sean Brady L 25 6 8 6.28 25 25 123.3 154 86 24 54 69 Pitchers – Rate Stats Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ FIP WAR No. 1 Comp Corey Kluber 783 9.28 1.71 0.88 .287 143 3.02 5.3 Kevin Brown Carlos Carrasco 738 9.88 1.95 1.10 .300 129 3.29 4.3 Dennis Eckersley Trevor Bauer 719 10.12 3.09 0.79 .301 132 3.19 4.3 Darryl Kile Shane Bieber 780 7.51 1.44 0.96 .309 118 3.48 3.8 Rick Wise Michael Clevinger 755 8.95 3.46 1.07 .291 111 3.96 3.2 Jason Jennings Brad Hand 302 12.15 3.07 0.98 .291 143 3.10 1.8 Damaso Marte Danny Salazar 439 10.08 3.68 1.14 .301 111 3.87 1.8 Wade Miller Andrew Miller 201 12.02 2.96 0.92 .297 157 3.05 1.4 Randy Myers Walker Lockett 614 6.54 2.35 1.40 .301 90 4.65 1.1 Nick Blackburn Cody Allen 271 10.55 3.80 0.98 .294 119 3.59 1.1 Turk Wendell James Hoyt 197 10.80 3.28 0.96 .308 133 3.36 0.9 Matt Miller Chih-Wei Hu 490 6.63 2.48 1.52 .301 90 4.83 0.8 Kris Detmers Cody Anderson 415 6.35 2.65 1.42 .301 90 4.77 0.8 Heath Totten Aaron Civale 517 5.38 1.67 1.52 .307 87 4.88 0.7 Heath Totten Adam Plutko 601 7.03 2.82 1.58 .302 86 4.94 0.7 Mike Thompson Mitch Talbot 454 5.13 3.96 0.99 .301 88 4.94 0.7 Vern Kennedy Cole Sulser 255 9.86 3.49 1.06 .306 111 3.81 0.7 Ernie Camacho Dan Otero 222 6.17 1.00 1.00 .297 114 3.61 0.7 Bob Locker Josh Tomlin 405 6.38 1.13 1.88 .295 89 4.91 0.6 Hal Brown Oliver Perez 153 10.50 3.00 1.00 .297 130 3.59 0.6 Tony Fossas Jefry Rodriguez 606 7.16 5.11 1.02 .303 85 4.92 0.6 Jaime Cocanower Triston McKenzie 431 8.01 3.72 1.49 .304 87 4.95 0.6 Arnie Gooch Tyler Olson 189 10.35 3.45 1.22 .301 113 3.89 0.6 Eric Gunderson Adam Cimber 288 6.78 1.86 1.20 .297 102 4.21 0.5 Tom Morgan Josh Martin 173 8.48 3.12 0.89 .304 109 3.75 0.4 Mark Lee Ben Taylor 228 8.66 2.72 1.36 .311 103 4.21 0.4 John Doherty Nick Goody 192 11.32 3.38 1.59 .296 105 4.19 0.4 Steve Andrade Henry Martinez 230 7.01 3.25 0.85 .302 102 4.08 0.4 Bob Miller Stephen Fife 350 4.81 2.75 1.03 .310 86 4.64 0.4 Charlie Robertson Jean Carlos Mejia 400 6.60 4.36 1.12 .300 83 4.89 0.3 Jesus Silva Jon Edwards 197 10.76 5.28 1.22 .300 98 4.41 0.3 David Lee Alexi Ogando 175 6.23 4.15 0.92 .298 95 4.64 0.3 Bruce Dal Canton Luke Eubank 233 7.32 4.70 0.87 .301 96 4.52 0.3 Sam Nahem Sam Hentges 463 6.98 5.35 1.27 .304 80 5.43 0.2 Mike Wodnicki Jordan Milbrath 279 6.86 5.52 0.75 .305 91 4.74 0.1 Horacio Pina Kyle Dowdy 502 6.67 3.66 1.55 .307 80 5.31 0.1 Peter Bauer James Karinchak 201 11.66 9.07 0.86 .296 88 5.05 0.0 Saul Rivera Kieran Lovegrove 257 7.69 6.22 0.98 .301 86 5.10 -0.1 Lloyd Allen Jeff Beliveau 183 9.08 6.13 1.36 .296 84 5.29 -0.1 Randy Williams Myles Jaye 481 5.16 3.22 1.52 .303 77 5.47 -0.1 Brad Knox Preston Claiborne 139 7.63 4.40 1.76 .297 78 5.56 -0.2 Mike Sullivan Neil Ramirez 231 11.11 4.10 1.88 .302 82 4.88 -0.2 Bill Wertz Adam Wilk 573 5.43 3.29 1.71 .305 76 5.68 -0.2 Andrew Lorraine Nick Pasquale 327 6.52 5.74 1.17 .309 76 5.48 -0.3 Mike Bumstead R.C. Orlan 191 8.27 5.23 1.74 .303 75 5.71 -0.3 Justin Lamber Mitch Brown 265 8.37 9.91 0.68 .305 75 5.75 -0.3 Ken Wright Rob Kaminsky 123 6.48 8.28 1.08 .295 69 6.15 -0.4 Brian Adams Shao-Ching Chiang 582 4.70 2.14 1.86 .304 74 5.70 -0.4 Ryan Cox Sean Brady 575 5.04 3.94 1.75 .309 70 6.04 -1.0 Josh Stewart Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA. Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.