2019 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Well, the good news is that Paul Goldschmidt’s departure doesn’t turn the offense into a burnt husk of a lineup. Not that it’ll be a good group, of course. But there’s a wide gulf between a mediocre offense and what our planet will look like in a few hundred years, strewn with artifacts from an earlier time as kids dodge packs of feral dogs in the hopes of snagging food from the dumpster near an abandoned bowling alley. On paper, Arizona has a lot of average hitters, and while that’s not so bad a thing if that’s where your offense ends up, it’s not what you want as your Plan A. Simply put, life comes at you fast — I get most of my wisdom from internet memes — and not everyone in the lineup will get 600 plate appearances.

If they manage to stay healthy, this crew has a surprisingly high floor, but a very low ceiling; there’s literally no one in this group I would take as a great candidate to have a breakout season.

Pitchers

This is the more interesting set of predictions for Arizona, as there is upside here. I won’t lie to you and say that Patrick Corbin isn’t a gigantic loss at the front of the rotation. He was one of the hardest pitchers to hit in 2018, and will likely remain so in 2019. But the 2018 Diamondbacks had almost no Taijuan Walker and lost some starts from Robbie Ray as well, both of whom will help soften the loss of Corbin, and of Clay Buchholz. Not that I expect Buchholz to be great in 2019, but he earned real wins for the team in 2018, wins they’ll have to replace.

Like Miles Mikolas last year, ZiPS gives Merrill Kelly, recently of the KBO, a league-average projection after keeping the ball in the park, which is no easy task in Korea; KBO pitchers had a league average of 2.44 homers per game and an ERA of 5.20 in 2018. Kelly is also reportedly throwing harder now than he did when he was a mostly forgotten Rays prospect. I actually had to look at a couple of those rosters to jog my memory; it feels like a lifetime ago.

Bench and Prospects

The bullpen will probably be reasonable, and the computer sees Jon Duplantier and whichever Taylor is the good one as being legitimate, if ordinary, options for 2019 if something goes wrong. Given Arizona’s insistence that they’re not rebuilding, I wouldn’t be surprised if, without some of the pitching depth including Kelly, they would have been more interested in re-signing Patrick Corbin or in letting Zack Greinke play out his deal. In theory, if Arizona could trade Greinke for at least one legitimate offensive prospect who is close to the majors, such a move would be survivable. I would wager the team is disappointed that Pavin Smith didn’t essentially force the Goldschmidt trade; ZiPS is now at the point where it doesn’t see him as being more likely than not to emerge as even a one-win player in the majors.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
A.J. Pollock R 31 CF 114 424 68 116 26 4 17 57 33 88 16 4
Ketel Marte B 25 SS 148 534 72 148 30 9 11 58 48 84 10 3
Eduardo Escobar B 30 3B 142 504 65 135 34 5 20 80 40 106 2 3
David Peralta L 31 LF 140 506 68 143 27 5 20 70 42 108 5 2
Nick Ahmed R 29 SS 136 443 54 109 25 5 13 55 32 95 5 5
Ildemaro Vargas R 27 SS 137 555 67 151 29 6 8 54 29 55 9 4
Steven Souza R 30 RF 110 380 54 94 20 3 18 60 48 125 9 3
Jake Lamb L 28 1B 115 402 62 97 21 4 18 70 56 127 4 3
Carson Kelly R 24 C 108 349 44 86 18 1 8 39 39 66 0 1
Jarrod Dyson L 34 CF 90 257 39 62 9 4 2 20 25 41 22 5
Daulton Varsho L 22 C 85 334 39 78 14 2 11 39 24 87 11 4
Andy Young R 25 2B 117 433 55 102 14 4 16 50 28 117 4 2
Alex Avila L 32 C 82 220 22 45 8 0 8 26 44 98 0 0
Christian Walker R 28 1B 128 456 64 113 27 4 20 71 36 139 2 1
Socrates Brito L 26 RF 130 459 58 117 22 6 14 57 30 121 9 3
Kevin Cron R 26 1B 120 463 59 111 24 1 23 72 32 147 1 0
Juniel Querecuto B 26 SS 115 401 42 102 19 4 2 34 27 74 9 4
Domingo Leyba B 23 SS 87 340 40 82 16 3 7 31 29 56 4 2
Daniel Descalso L 32 2B 130 319 45 72 15 3 10 47 50 95 1 1
Reymond Fuentes L 28 CF 72 231 27 58 7 2 3 18 14 58 9 2
Matt Szczur R 29 CF 91 179 24 42 10 1 4 20 19 44 4 2
Jon Jay L 34 RF 131 434 60 115 19 4 3 32 29 84 3 2
Ben DeLuzio R 24 CF 80 307 32 71 12 3 2 20 21 92 26 9
Rob Refsnyder R 28 LF 98 309 39 76 18 2 6 29 32 74 3 2
Jazz Chisholm L 21 SS 115 477 61 102 19 5 20 68 33 199 13 5
Dominic Miroglio R 24 C 95 361 36 87 20 2 4 32 18 63 3 3
Patrick Kivlehan R 29 RF 125 389 49 95 21 3 15 55 26 111 5 3
Anthony Recker R 35 C 71 238 29 51 13 1 9 32 23 82 1 1
Marcus Littlewood B 27 C 71 244 27 50 11 0 7 26 23 76 1 1
John Ryan Murphy R 28 C 92 256 26 55 12 0 8 28 17 71 0 0
Abraham Almonte B 30 CF 79 230 32 54 13 3 5 24 24 58 5 2
Marty Herum R 27 3B 105 406 42 102 19 2 6 38 18 80 3 2
Kelby Tomlinson R 29 SS 117 351 37 87 12 2 1 26 29 78 10 6
Cody Decker R 32 1B 78 233 28 47 11 1 11 33 20 96 0 0
Tyler Ladendorf R 31 SS 54 162 18 36 7 0 1 12 13 34 1 1
Jamie Westbrook R 24 LF 121 452 52 114 21 3 13 53 21 85 4 3
Evan Marzilli L 28 CF 97 323 36 64 12 4 4 24 39 114 8 5
Alberto Rosario R 32 C 52 168 14 38 6 0 1 11 7 33 1 1
Drew Ellis R 23 3B 117 446 51 92 25 1 14 52 40 118 2 7
Yasmany Tomas R 28 LF 114 400 45 101 22 3 16 60 17 122 2 1
Marcus Wilson R 22 CF 115 464 51 100 22 3 10 44 39 159 13 8
Chris Stewart R 37 C 49 134 12 27 4 2 0 8 11 20 0 1
Pavin Smith L 23 1B 116 443 51 104 22 2 7 41 42 77 2 2
Rudy Flores L 28 1B 119 424 49 92 20 1 15 51 33 160 1 2

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
A.J. Pollock .274 .330 .474 105 .200 .310 6.0 3 2.5 Jackie Brandt
Ketel Marte .277 .337 .429 97 .152 .312 5.5 -1 2.4 Bill Russell
Eduardo Escobar .268 .324 .474 103 .206 .304 5.6 2 2.3 Tim Wallach
David Peralta .283 .341 .474 108 .192 .325 6.1 1 2.1 Del Unser
Nick Ahmed .246 .297 .413 81 .167 .287 4.3 11 1.9 Ronnie Merrill
Ildemaro Vargas .272 .310 .389 80 .117 .291 4.5 4 1.6 Yuniesky Betancourt
Steven Souza .247 .339 .458 104 .211 .321 5.6 0 1.5 Terrell Lowery
Jake Lamb .241 .335 .448 101 .206 .307 5.3 3 1.3 Ben Broussard
Carson Kelly .246 .328 .372 81 .126 .284 4.3 3 1.3 Hector Villanueva
Jarrod Dyson .241 .317 .331 69 .089 .280 4.2 8 1.0 Dave Roberts
Daulton Varsho .234 .292 .386 74 .153 .284 4.1 4 1.0 Matt Sinatro
Andy Young .236 .306 .397 80 .162 .287 4.3 0 0.8 Vince Harrison
Alex Avila .205 .338 .350 79 .145 .325 4.0 -1 0.7 Jamie Quirk
Christian Walker .248 .307 .456 94 .208 .313 5.0 -1 0.6 Keith Williams
Socrates Brito .255 .300 .420 84 .166 .318 4.6 2 0.5 Chad Mottola
Kevin Cron .240 .292 .445 87 .205 .300 4.6 2 0.4 Adell Davenport
Juniel Querecuto .254 .304 .337 66 .082 .308 3.7 3 0.4 Bobby DeJardin
Domingo Leyba .241 .304 .368 73 .126 .271 4.0 -2 0.3 Jeff McKnight
Daniel Descalso .226 .331 .386 85 .160 .290 4.4 -5 0.3 Shanie Dugas
Reymond Fuentes .251 .297 .338 64 .087 .324 3.9 2 0.1 Peter Bergeron
Matt Szczur .235 .313 .369 76 .134 .290 4.1 -1 0.1 Derek Nicholson
Jon Jay .265 .330 .348 76 .083 .323 4.2 2 0.1 Dick Porter
Ben DeLuzio .231 .287 .309 55 .078 .324 3.4 5 0.1 Virgilio Silverio
Rob Refsnyder .246 .322 .375 80 .129 .306 4.3 0 0.1 Mike Colangelo
Jazz Chisholm .214 .266 .400 69 .187 .318 3.7 -3 0.0 Jose Lopez
Dominic Miroglio .241 .293 .341 64 .100 .282 3.5 -1 0.0 Guillermo Garcia
Patrick Kivlehan .244 .299 .429 86 .185 .304 4.6 -4 -0.1 Keith Williams
Anthony Recker .214 .292 .391 75 .176 .286 3.9 -6 -0.1 Ron Karkovice
Marcus Littlewood .205 .271 .336 56 .131 .267 3.1 0 -0.1 Matt Garrick
John Ryan Murphy .215 .264 .355 58 .141 .266 3.2 0 -0.2 Tom Nieto
Abraham Almonte .235 .307 .383 78 .148 .293 4.2 -5 -0.2 Paul Householder
Marty Herum .251 .285 .352 64 .101 .300 3.6 1 -0.3 Tom Veryzer
Kelby Tomlinson .248 .307 .302 59 .054 .316 3.3 -1 -0.3 Joey Hammond
Cody Decker .202 .267 .399 70 .197 .286 3.6 1 -0.3 Dustan Mohr
Tyler Ladendorf .222 .287 .284 49 .062 .276 2.8 0 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Jamie Westbrook .252 .293 .398 77 .146 .285 4.2 -2 -0.4 Mike Peeples
Evan Marzilli .198 .289 .297 53 .099 .293 2.8 3 -0.4 Jeff Duncan
Alberto Rosario .226 .260 .280 40 .054 .276 2.5 1 -0.4 Charlie Greene
Drew Ellis .206 .277 .361 64 .155 .248 3.1 1 -0.5 Adam Fox
Yasmany Tomas .253 .283 .443 84 .190 .324 4.5 -7 -0.5 Jerald Clark
Marcus Wilson .216 .278 .341 59 .125 .305 3.2 1 -0.6 Edgardo Baez
Chris Stewart .201 .265 .261 38 .060 .237 2.2 -2 -0.7 Rick Ferrell
Pavin Smith .235 .303 .341 67 .106 .270 3.6 -1 -1.0 Ryan McGuire
Rudy Flores .217 .282 .375 68 .158 .309 3.6 -5 -1.4 Steve Neal

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Zack Greinke R 35 14 9 3.69 29 29 180.3 167 74 26 40 167
Robbie Ray L 27 9 6 3.86 29 29 149.3 126 64 20 72 194
Zack Godley R 29 12 10 4.13 29 28 159.0 153 73 18 68 160
Merrill Kelly R 30 11 10 4.57 28 28 169.3 180 86 24 56 141
Clay Buchholz R 34 6 5 4.22 21 19 108.7 110 51 13 34 84
Luke Weaver R 25 9 8 4.66 29 25 133.3 142 69 20 45 118
Taijuan Walker R 26 7 6 4.60 21 21 115.3 119 59 18 39 96
Jon Duplantier R 24 5 4 4.17 21 20 90.7 87 42 9 45 86
Taylor Widener R 24 8 8 4.59 29 29 113.7 107 58 10 76 104
Archie Bradley R 26 5 3 3.72 75 0 72.7 65 30 8 26 78
Jake Buchanan R 29 8 8 4.94 25 22 129.3 155 71 13 47 71
Joel Payamps R 25 9 9 4.88 31 19 125.3 137 68 20 38 99
Matt Andriese R 29 6 6 4.63 34 14 101.0 107 52 17 28 91
Andrew Chafin L 29 4 2 3.44 72 0 55.0 47 21 4 25 56
Silvino Bracho R 26 4 2 3.60 59 0 65.0 55 26 9 23 83
Taylor Clarke R 26 10 10 4.99 26 26 133.3 145 74 22 47 108
Jimmie Sherfy R 27 4 2 3.65 54 0 56.7 48 23 6 28 67
Yoan Lopez R 26 5 3 3.82 53 0 63.7 54 27 7 31 80
Jake Diekman L 32 2 1 3.62 63 0 49.7 40 20 4 28 60
Brad Ziegler R 39 4 3 3.86 63 0 56.0 58 24 4 20 37
Yoshihisa Hirano R 35 4 3 4.08 62 0 53.0 51 24 6 21 47
Kevin Ginkel R 25 4 3 4.01 51 0 60.7 55 27 6 30 67
Shelby Miller R 28 6 6 4.93 17 16 84.0 90 46 13 31 75
Riley Smith R 24 6 7 5.17 25 23 127.0 143 73 19 55 90
T.J. McFarland L 30 3 2 4.28 46 0 61.0 66 29 5 21 34
Justin Donatella R 24 7 8 5.20 26 23 114.3 127 66 16 53 77
Emilio Vargas R 22 7 9 5.24 25 24 122.0 129 71 19 65 110
Nick Green R 24 5 6 5.46 17 17 83.0 93 50 9 53 52
Matt Koch R 28 6 7 5.25 27 21 116.7 140 68 22 30 67
Jake Barrett R 27 3 2 4.37 53 0 57.7 53 28 7 32 62
Barry Enright R 33 5 5 5.15 15 15 80.3 96 46 11 19 48
Stefan Crichton R 27 4 3 4.64 34 1 54.3 57 28 7 23 44
Randall Delgado R 29 3 3 4.50 43 2 52.0 52 26 7 23 45
Joey Krehbiel R 26 3 3 4.55 51 0 57.3 52 29 8 34 67
Brad Boxberger R 31 5 5 4.82 54 0 46.7 41 25 8 30 60
Bradin Hagens R 30 4 5 5.37 25 9 67.0 74 40 10 33 46
Bud Jeter R 27 3 3 4.73 40 0 45.7 46 24 5 25 40
Michael Blazek R 30 2 3 5.10 41 4 60.0 65 34 8 33 50
Alex Young L 25 6 8 5.61 27 21 118.7 136 74 21 50 85
Cody Decker R 32 0 0 8.10 4 0 3.3 5 3 1 1 0
Bo Takahashi R 22 6 8 5.72 23 23 111.7 126 71 24 43 91
Kris Medlen R 33 3 5 6.06 14 13 65.3 77 44 15 26 49
Neftali Feliz R 31 4 5 5.82 39 8 72.7 75 47 13 46 62
Braden Shipley R 27 6 8 5.74 30 16 111.3 129 71 21 47 75
Jared Miller L 25 2 3 5.73 48 0 55.0 50 35 7 55 64
Troy Scribner R 27 4 6 6.28 21 17 86.0 93 60 20 53 82
Ryan Atkinson R 26 6 10 6.05 27 21 99.7 105 67 20 68 99

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Zack Greinke 738 8.33 2.00 1.30 .281 119 84 3.89 3.6 Dennis Martinez
Robbie Ray 643 11.69 4.34 1.21 .302 114 88 3.86 2.7 Shawn Estes
Zack Godley 696 9.06 3.85 1.02 .306 106 94 4.06 2.5 Mike Krukow
Merrill Kelly 741 7.49 2.98 1.28 .305 99 101 4.48 2.2 Kyle Lohse
Clay Buchholz 466 6.96 2.82 1.08 .293 108 93 4.21 1.8 Bob Lemon
Luke Weaver 583 7.97 3.04 1.35 .310 98 103 4.48 1.5 Josh Fogg
Taijuan Walker 503 7.49 3.04 1.40 .294 99 101 4.71 1.4 Mike Trujillo
Jon Duplantier 403 8.54 4.47 0.89 .302 106 95 4.20 1.4 Mike Torrez
Taylor Widener 524 8.23 6.02 0.79 .298 96 104 4.68 1.2 Dick Ruthven
Archie Bradley 307 9.66 3.22 0.99 .297 118 84 3.63 1.2 Mike Cather
Jake Buchanan 587 4.94 3.27 0.90 .317 92 109 4.63 1.1 Joe Genewich
Joel Payamps 549 7.11 2.73 1.44 .304 93 108 4.72 1.1 Tim Dillard
Matt Andriese 434 8.11 2.50 1.51 .305 98 102 4.46 1.1 A.J. Sager
Andrew Chafin 234 9.16 4.09 0.65 .291 128 78 3.48 1.0 Sid Monge
Silvino Bracho 273 11.49 3.18 1.25 .299 122 82 3.64 1.0 Robb Nen
Taylor Clarke 589 7.29 3.17 1.49 .304 88 114 4.89 0.9 Cha-Seung Baek
Jimmie Sherfy 245 10.64 4.45 0.95 .298 120 83 3.80 0.8 Brian Wilson
Yoan Lopez 275 11.31 4.38 0.99 .305 115 87 3.67 0.8 Bobby Jenks
Jake Diekman 217 10.87 5.07 0.72 .295 121 82 3.65 0.8 Marshall Bridges
Brad Ziegler 245 5.95 3.21 0.64 .298 114 88 3.99 0.8 Dutch Leonard
Yoshihisa Hirano 230 7.98 3.57 1.02 .294 111 90 4.21 0.7 Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Kevin Ginkel 266 9.94 4.45 0.89 .306 110 91 3.86 0.7 Clay Bryant
Shelby Miller 369 8.04 3.32 1.39 .310 89 112 4.55 0.6 Jay Tibbs
Riley Smith 577 6.38 3.90 1.35 .306 85 118 5.17 0.6 Ed Wojna
T.J. McFarland 266 5.02 3.10 0.74 .298 106 94 4.18 0.5 Dave Tomlin
Justin Donatella 521 6.06 4.17 1.26 .302 85 118 5.20 0.5 Jim Clancy
Emilio Vargas 559 8.11 4.80 1.40 .308 84 119 5.17 0.5 Ben Hendrickson
Nick Green 396 5.64 5.75 0.98 .307 83 120 5.51 0.4 Jake Joseph
Matt Koch 517 5.17 2.31 1.70 .302 84 119 5.40 0.4 Greg Wooten
Jake Barrett 257 9.68 4.99 1.09 .301 101 99 4.40 0.4 George Smith
Barry Enright 353 5.38 2.13 1.23 .314 85 117 4.59 0.4 Jason Johnson
Stefan Crichton 242 7.29 3.81 1.16 .303 98 102 4.64 0.4 Scott Munter
Randall Delgado 228 7.79 3.98 1.21 .296 98 102 4.55 0.3 Ed Farmer
Joey Krehbiel 257 10.52 5.34 1.26 .303 97 103 4.56 0.3 Kevin Barry
Brad Boxberger 209 11.57 5.79 1.54 .300 94 106 4.80 0.2 David Lee
Bradin Hagens 306 6.18 4.43 1.34 .299 85 118 5.33 0.2 Claude Willoughby
Bud Jeter 208 7.88 4.93 0.99 .304 93 108 4.66 0.1 Casey Daigle
Michael Blazek 276 7.50 4.95 1.20 .311 86 116 4.97 0.1 Jerry Johnson
Alex Young 540 6.45 3.79 1.59 .305 78 128 5.46 0.0 Wes Whisler
Cody Decker 16 0.00 2.70 2.70 .286 54 184 7.95 -0.1 Mike Sullivan
Bo Takahashi 503 7.33 3.47 1.93 .302 77 130 5.66 -0.1 Rich Yett
Kris Medlen 297 6.75 3.58 2.07 .304 75 133 5.97 -0.2 R.A. Dickey
Neftali Feliz 337 7.68 5.70 1.61 .291 78 128 5.79 -0.2 Jim Dougherty
Braden Shipley 506 6.06 3.80 1.70 .302 77 130 5.66 -0.2 Jim Walkup
Jared Miller 270 10.47 9.00 1.15 .305 79 126 5.64 -0.3 Gary Wayne
Troy Scribner 403 8.58 5.55 2.09 .300 72 138 6.29 -0.5 Fernando Rijo
Ryan Atkinson 471 8.94 6.14 1.81 .306 73 138 6.00 -0.5 Steve Sparks

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2019 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
Bill
Member
Member
Bill

missing the baseball diamond graphic . . .

DBA455
Member
DBA455

It would be a nice addition if FG could enable the link to the player page for each player in the table, even if they were mentioned above in the text.