Two former Mets are on the move from one playoff contender to another, with the Guardians trading Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in exchange for Noah Syndergaard and $2 million. The Dodgers receive a shortstop who, despite having a down year, adds a much-needed right-handed bat to their lineup. The Guardians receive a pitcher who had a 7.16 ERA before he landed on the IL nearly two months ago. In all, it makes for a seemingly lopsided challenge trade. Imagine going back to the fall of 2018 and explaining to yourself that a straight-up trade of Syndergaard for Rosario would seem a little light for the team receiving the former, but don’t actually do it, because your 2018 self’s head would explode, and you’d alter the space-time continuum.

The deal came into public consciousness on Wednesday evening piecemeal, via a flurry of tweets from several of baseball’s leading bombardiers. Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers reported that a deal for Rosario was approaching, Ken Rosenthal confirmed it, and Pat Ragazzo reported that Syndergaard would be the corresponding piece from Los Angeles. Jon Heyman was the first to indicate that the Dodgers were sending money to the Guardians, and Zack Meisel reported the amount. If you’re a news-breaker who didn’t get to announce the terms of at least one part of this trade, it might be time to get out of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Killers take a turn to the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

If you remember my writing earlier this season about Brent Honeywell Jr.’s changeup-screwball combo or Hurston Waldrep’s splitter, you can probably imagine how much I love a weird-ass changeup-like thing. So much so I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth it to ask Meg for a “Weird-Ass Changeup World Tour” tag in the CMS.

Until then, consider Logan Allen. No, the other Logan Allen. The one who came back up from the minors to replace Shane Bieber in Cleveland’s rotation and completely barbecued the Pirates on Tuesday night. Seriously: Five innings, no runs, one hit, one walk, eight strikeouts. That’s some heavy stuff.

The key to Allen’s whole shtick is his changeup, which is unlike any other pitch in baseball. It’s slow, even by the standards of a pitch that’s defined by its slowness: just 82.9 mph on average, though since he doesn’t throw very hard by modern standards, that’s not as extreme a number as it seems on first glance. What is extreme is the way the pitch moves. Read the rest of this entry »

So here’s what happened. I was watching the MLB game highlights of Tuesday’s Marlins-Blue Jays matchup. I like MLB’s game highlights; in order to keep all the quick cuts from feeling disjointed, they kind of just plop some music on top everything unceremoniously, and sometimes the music can really color your perception of the game. This Mets-Padres game from April is a great example. It was a nailbiter, but it lost some of its nerve-wracking heft thanks to a soundtrack that’s a cross between John Coltrane, Kool & The Gang, and Super Mario 3.

Two on, two out, bottom of the ninth, and it sounds like the monologue is about to start on Saturday Night Live. Anyway, I was watching Tuesday’s Marlins-Jays highlights (the soundtrack for which sounds like The Living End on their union-mandated lunch break), and I noticed this single from Luis Arraez.

Normally, a single from Arraez is about the least remarkable thing in baseball. He is the game’s preeminent singles hitter (and depending on your worldview, perhaps the game’s preeminent hitter, period). What caught my eye was how quickly Daulton Varsho managed to cut this ball off, considering that Arraez slashed it just a foot inside the left field line. Varsho gets fantastic jumps, but I figured he also had to be playing extremely shallow. It occurred to me that maybe every outfielder is playing right on top of Arraez this year, seeing as dumping liners right in front of the outfielders for singles is his superpower. Read the rest of this entry »

The Guardians made a catching change heading into the weekend, designating veteran Mike Zunino for assignment and calling up prospect Bo Naylor from Triple-A Columbus to take his place. Zunino, signed this past offseason, hit .177/.271/.306 in 42 games in Cleveland, “good” enough for a 63 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. Naylor, in his second go of Triple-A, is having a season similar to last one, hitting .254/.393/.498 with 13 homers in 60 games, giving him a wRC+ of 122.

Signed to a one-year, $6 million contract this past offseason, Zunino was never intended to be a long-term option for the Guardians. He’s always been a maddingly inconsistent hitter from year to year, oscillating between .850-OPS and .550-OPS seasons, and he missed nearly half of 2022 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. But the hope was that he’d be good enough to hold down the fort long enough for Naylor to get more time behind the plate in the minors.

Zunino’s offense didn’t initially seem all that crucial to his continued employment. Over the last decade, Cleveland has been more than happy to employ catchers who struggle with the bat, so long as said catcher was at least more than competent defensively. The last time Cleveland’s backstops combined for a wRC+ of even 90 was 2014, during the early stages of the Yan Gomes residency. This was a noted shift from the previous decade, when the organization took the opposite approach, with defensively challenged catchers like Victor Martinez and Carlos Santana making their money with their bats. Despite the absymal offense, if Zunino’s defense this season had been at the levels of his time with the Mariners, Naylor would still be hanging out in the state capital. Read the rest of this entry »

Games are shorter this season due to the pitch clock, which means that starting pitchers are usually throwing an outing’s worth of offerings in less time than they typically did in previous years. Whereas a quality start of seven innings and 100 pitches might have taken two hours and 15 minutes in the past — this before a call to the bullpen — it can take as little as an hour and 45 minutes in 2023. Those times will obviously vary, with the effectiveness of the opposing pitcher playing a major role, but the fact remains that such an outing now regularly takes place within a more condensed time frame.

How different is this for starting pitchers? Moreover, is throwing that number of innings and pitches in a narrower time frame harder, or is it actually easier? I’ve asked those questions to several pitchers since the start of the season, with their answers sometimes extending to other aspects of the new pitch clock. Here is what they’ve had to say.

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Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians: “Good question. To give you a real response on the impact… we’ll probably see at the end of the year after a great big body of work. Right? The number of quality starts, or whatever you want to call them. But for me, personally, I’m not finding much of a difference. I work pretty quick, especially without runners on. Last year, I think I was the second fastest without runners on base. Maybe the first. Wade Miley works extremely fast, as well. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Benson was 19 years old and playing in the Midwest League when he led Sunday Notes on May 13, 2018. Two years removed from being drafted 14th overall by Cleveland out of Atlanta’s Westminster High School, he was both promising and raw. His batting average was hovering around the Mendoza line, but his OBP was a healthy .376, and his seven home runs were tied for tops in the circuit.

In many ways, he’s much the same player now. Acquired by the Cincinnati Reds from the Guardians this past February, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound outfielder had a strong 2022 campaign with Triple-A Columbus — 17 bombs and a .948 OPS — but he’s otherwise been a work-in-progress since entering pro ball. His career slash line in the minors is .221/.353/.441, and over 122 big-league plate appearances — he debuted last August — that line is a paltry .187/.256/.243. Contact has been an issue. In back-to-back seasons on the farm, Benson fanned 152 and 151 times. His K-rate in the majors is 32.2%.

But the potential is still there, as evidenced by a pair of performances over the past two weeks. On May 30, Benson had three hits, including a triple, in Cincinnati’s 9-8 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Just four days ago, he walked off the Los Angeles Dodgers with his first big-league home run. Moreover, his athleticism remains elite.

I asked Benson about the road he’s traveled since our 2018 conversation following his three-hit game in Boston.

“It’s been rocky, but with a lot of growth,” Benson told me. “There have been good times, there have been bad times, and through it all there has been so much growth and change for me as a young man. I was 19 then, and now I’m 24 with a family; I have a baby boy that was born in March. There has been growth within the game, as well.”

Like all prospects, Benson had his development path hindered by the pandemic. With the minor-league season cancelled, he had to settle for a short stint in the independent Constellation Energy League, an experience that turned out to be anything but rosy. He had just eight hits in 56 at-bats, and fanned 27 times.

“In terms of playing and continuing with that flow, the whole rhythm of things, it was definitely tough,” Benson said of the 2020 summer. “But I did get to play in Sugar Land, and that was dope. It kind of opened my eyes to ‘I’ve got work to do.’ I felt kind of sad to go into that league and not do very well. But I worked, and I continued to learn.”

A mixed-bag season followed — 17 homers and 146 strikeouts — but then came a career-best 2022. In 401 Triple-A plate appearances, the youngster matched his 2021 home run total while fanning just 91 times. Moreover, his slash line was a stand-up-and-take-notice .279/.426/.522, and he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. Among those taking notice were the Cincinnati Reds.

“They had been following me ever since I got drafted, and I guess they liked the progress I’ve been making,” Benson said of the trade. “When I played against them in Triple-A last year, I tore them up pretty good. I think it was a combination of that, and them liking my ability on the diamond. I understand that maybe I won’t be a guy who hits .300, but I can be a guy who gets on base close to 40% of the time, steal bases, and hit the ball hard. I can impact the game.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Curtis Pride went 7 for 11 against Kevin Tapani.

Mookie Betts went 7 for 11 aa against Danny Duffy.

Steve Bowling went 3 for 7 against Glenn Abbott.

Mark Carreon went 10 for 18 against John Burkett.

Glenn Burke went 4 for 6 against Steve Carlton.

Johnny Giavotella went 5 for 7 against Anthony Bass.

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Corey Rosier would like to play in Boston this season. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: He’ll add athleticism and a discerning eye to the Red Sox roster if and when he arrives. Acquired from San Diego last summer as part of the Eric Hosmer deal, the 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting outfielder has been described by our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen as “a 70 runner with a good idea of the strike zone.” His numbers this season have been promising. In 155 plate appearances with the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, Rosier has a .305/.364/.433 slash line, a 122 wRC+, and he’s swiped 24 bases in 27 attempts.

He credits offseason speed training at Tampa’s House of Athlete for improving what were already impressive wheels.

“The program I go through has helped make my first step even better, and to get to my top speed quicker,” explained Rosier, who ran a 6.4 60 at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. “Yo Murphy is who put it together. His primary sport is football — he played in the NFL for a little bit — but they’ve branched out to other sports and do a really good baseball program.”

Rosier wasn’t big into football growing up. Rather, he was “a baseball/basketball guy” who was primarily a shooting guard on the hardwood. Defense was one of his strong suits. The 5-foot-10, 190-pound Waldorf, Maryland native would often guard the other team’s best player.

His ability to handle high-level pitching will go a long way toward determining his future on the diamond, and he took a big step in that direction this past winter. Rosier was introduced to a hitting coach named Oswaldo “Ovy” Rodriguez Diaz, who helped him clean up his bat path and strengthen his top hand. The latter part of that equation was paramount.

“Being a right-handed thrower and a left-handed hitter, my bottom hand is naturally more dominant,” Rosier explained. “What was happening is that my swing was getting in and out of the zone — not having a strong top hand was kind of making me get snap-hooky — versus keeping the path through to centerfield. I really focused on strengthening that, and it’s definitely helped.”

The possibility that he could potentially help the Red Sox as soon as this season came up when I asked the confident youngster if he had any final thoughts before preparing that night’s game.

“You haven’t asked me when I’ll be a big-leaguer,’ responded Rosier, who next to Triple-A infielder David Hamilton ranks as the fastest player in the Red Sox system. “I think that could be by the end of this year. With the way I run the bases and play defense, if the Sox make a playoff push, I could be a guy who comes up and helps them win by doing the same things I’m doing here. It’s coming a lot sooner than people know.”

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A quiz:

Ty Cobb has the most singles, doubles, and triples in Detroit Tigers history. Who is the franchise leader for home runs?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Bobby Bolin, who pitched for three teams — the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox — from 1961-1973, died earlier this month at age 84. The right-hander from Hickory Grove, South Carolina appeared in 495 games and went 88-75 with 51 saves and a 3.40 ERA.

Jack Baldschun, who pitched for the three teams — the Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres — from 1961-1970, died earlier this week at age 83. The Greenville, Ohio and Miami University product had a three-year-stretch with the Phillies where he logged 29 relief wins, 50 saves, and a 2.79 ERA.

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The answer to the quiz is Al Kaline, with 399 home runs. Norm Cash is second, with 373. Miguel Cabrera is third, with 369.

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The Milwaukee Brewers made a shrewd move when they acquired Owen Miller from the Cleveland Guardians last December in exchange for cash (thanks to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel for confirming that it was a cash transaction with no PTBNL involved). In 174 plate appearances with his new team, the 26-year-old infielder is slashing .313/.351/.448 with four home runs and a 120 wRC+. Moreover, he’s added versatility to the lineup by playing five defensive positions. Featured here at FanGraphs as part of my “Talks Hitting” series last December, the Mequon native is the 12th Wisconsin-born player in Brewers history.

On a related note, the current iteration of the Milwaukee Brewers was established in April 1970 when the Seattle Pilots relocated to Wisconsin’s largest city on short notice, this after the Pilots went into into bankruptcy a week before Opening Day. The moniker preceded the move at the major-league level. In 1884, the Milwaukee Brewers played in the Union Association, an American Association team went by that name in 1891, and when the American League was established in 1901, the Brewers were an inaugural member. The last of those franchises is now in Maryland, the Brewers having become the St. Louis Browns in 1902, and subsequently the Baltimore Orioles in 1954.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Gosuke Katoh hit safely in his first 10 games with NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and is 19-for-51 with four home runs through his first 13. The 28-year-old Mountain View, California native played in eight games for the Toronto Blue Jays last season.

Liván Moinelo is 2-0 with three saves and a 0.87 ERA with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 27-year-old Cuban-born southpaw has 28 strikeouts and nine hits allowed in 20-and-two-thirds innings. One year ago, he had a 1.03 ERA, 24 saves, and 87 strikeouts in 52-and-two-thirds innings.

Seunghwan Oh recorded his 500th professional save when the KBO’s Samsung Lions beat the NC Dinos 9-6 earlier this week. The 40-year-old right-hander has since added one more and now has 379 saves in the KBO, 80 in NPB, and 42 in MLB. All but three of his stateside saves came with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016-2017.

Hye Seong Kim is slashing .313/.379/.427 with 13 doubles and three home runs for the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The 24-year-old second baseman has 14 steals in as many attempts.

Peter O’Brien is slashing .393/.454/.793 with a circuit-best 13 home runs for the Mexican League’s Pericos de Puebla. The 32-year-old outfielder played for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015-2016 and the Miami Marlins in 2018-2019.

Fernando Rodney is 2-1 with five saves and a 7.56 ERA over 17 Mexican League relief appearances. The 46-year-old veteran of 17 MLB seasons has seen action with both Leones de Yucatan and Diablos Rojos del Mexico.

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Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were minor-league teammates in the Minnesota Twins system before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds last August in exchange for Tyler Mahle. Steer — featured in my “Talks Hitting” series earlier this month — is enjoying a stellar rookie season, while Encarnacion-Strand, a 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State University, is knocking loudly on the big-league door. According to Steer, the erstwhile Cowboy doesn’t lack for confidence.

“It was Strand’s first spring training,” recalled Steer. “Some of us were talking in the dugout before an inter-squad game, and he said that he wanted to hit .300 with 30 home runs that year. We were like, ‘What?” Like, no one does that. One of us said, “That’s your expectation?” He said, “Yeah.” Sure enough, he goes ahead and hits 30, and hits over .300.”

Encarnacion-Strand’s exact totals in 2022 — this across 330 plate appearances in High-A and 208 in Double-A — were 32 home runs and a .304 batting average. Based on what he’s doing this year, those numbers weren’t a fluke. Over 194 plate appearances with Triple-A Louisville, he’s slashing a lusty .356/.418/.718 with 16 home runs and a 176 wRC+.

“He’s pretty confident,” said Steer. “He’s also pretty good.”

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FARM NOTES

DJ Peters is getting an opportunity on the mound. The 27-year-old former Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers outfielder pitched two scoreless innings for the Detroit Tigers Florida Complex League entry earlier this week.

Noah Mendlinger is slashing .306/.427/.471 with four home runs in 151 plate appearances between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield. The 22-year-old infielder was signed as a non-drafted free agent by the St. Louis Cardinals out of Georgia College & State University in 2021.

Aaron Schunk is slashing .341/.385/.625 with 10 home runs in 192 plate appearances for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Drafted by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Georgia in 2019, the 25-year-old infielder was first featured here at FanGraphs in June 2020.

Emmet Sheehan is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 53-and-a-third innings for the Double-A Tulsa Drillers. Currently No. 17 our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list, the 23-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs last August.

Al Alburquerque is 1-0 with three saves and a 1.29 ERA over 19 relief outings for the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. The 38-year-old right-hander — a veteran of 264 big-league games over seven seasons, including five with the Detroit Tigers — last pitched affiliated ball in 2018.

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Which is better, baseball on TV or baseball on the radio? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, and the results favored eyeballs over ears. TV received 56.7 of the votes, while radio garnered 43.3%.

Regardless of the medium, the quality of the people behind the microphones matters. In my opinion, it matters a lot. I do my best to tune in to a wide variety of games, even for just an inning or two — keeping abreast of what’s happening across the two leagues is part of my job — and it’s safe to say that not all play-by-play announcers and analysts are created equal. Whether I opt for TV or radio, or for home or away, the respective voices of the game strongly influence my choice.

As one commenter on the poll put it, “It depends upon the broadcasters.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Emma Tiedemann and Rylee Pay — the second all-female booth in professional baseball history — are finding chemistry as Double-A Portland’s broadcast team. Jen McCaffrey wrote about them for The Athletic (subscription required).

KCUR Kansas City’s Greg Echlin reported on how the Royals-owned Urban Youth Academy, in the opinion of some members of the city’s African-American community, has strayed from its original goals.

At Forbes, John Perrotto wrote about how Oakland Athletics manager Mark Kotsay is staying positive during a horrid season.

Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein wrote about how MLB has the power to keep the A’s in the Bay Area.

Jonathan Mayo did a mock draft at MLB.com.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Cleveland Guardians have lost 17 games by one run, the most in the majors.

Andrew McCutchen has 1,999 hits, 399 doubles, 295 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 51.9 WAR. Hall of Famer Tony Oliva had 1,917 hits, 329 doubles, 220 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 40.7 WAR.

Kansas City Royals right-hander Jordan Lyles is 0-10 with a 6.84 ERA and a .239 BABIP-against. His 18 home runs allowed are the most in the majors.

Patrick Wisdom has struck out 77 times in 202 plate appearances. Luis Arraez has struck out 12 times in 248 plate appearances.

Juan Gonzalez had 157 RBIs and 46 walks in 1998. Ted Williams had 159 RBIs and 162 walks in 1949.

Henry Aaron and Willie Mays each had 648 home runs on June 9, 1972. “Hammerin’ Hank” moved ahead of the “Say Hey Kid” on the all-time homer list — only Babe Ruth had more — the following day.

On today’s date in 1985, Von Hayes hit a solo home run and a grand slam as part of a nine-run first inning as the Philadelphia Phillies routed the New York Mets 26-7 at Veteran’s Stadium. The score was 16-0 after two innings.

On today’s date in 1979, Bob Stanley threw a complete-game four-hitter as the Boston Red Sox beat the Kansas City Royals 4-0 in 10 innings. The losing pitcher was Steve Busby, who allowed two hits in nine-and-a-third innings.

Players born on today’s date include Wheezer Dell, who went a combined 19-23 with a 2.55 ERA while pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1912, and the Brooklyn Robbins from 1915-1917. The Tuscarora native was the first major-league player born in the state of Nevada.

Also born on today’s date was Pop Joy, a first baseman who played for the Union Association’s Washington Nationals in 1884. The Washington DC native had 28 hits — all singles — in 130 at-bats.

A straw man, per the Cambridge Dictionary, is “an argument, claim, or opponent that is invented in order to win or create an argument.” The term can also refer to “someone, often an imaginary person, who is used to hide an illegal or secret activity.” The Strawman, without the space, is a nickname I like to use for Guardians center fielder Myles Straw, a man whose spectacular outfield defense is the stuff of imagination; his elite speed and flying leaps would have you believe he’s a comic book hero invented in order to win ballgames.

Perhaps the whole superhero nickname thing for great ballplayers has been done to death at this point, but then again, so has the whole superhero thing in general. If Marvel can keep pumping out movies, then I can keep pumping out nicknames. Besides, this comparison feels especially apt; Straw plays for the Guardians, after all.

From 2021 to ’22, Straw racked up 22 OAA, tied with Michael A. Taylor for most in the American League. He posted 5.1 WAR in 310 games, 14th among center fielders despite single-digit home run totals and an 81 wRC+. All the defensive metrics agreed that Straw was one of the best in the game; his 22 UZR ranked second among outfielders, and his 21 DRS ranked third. Baseball Prospectus rated him as the most valuable defensive player in baseball by DRP.

Then came 2023. If Straw were a superhero, this would be the point in his narrative arc when his powers come into question. Through 59 games in center field, he has a shocking -2 OAA. That puts him in the 21st percentile league-wide, just a year after he finished in the 98th. His -0.2 WAR ranks last among qualified outfielders, and somehow, his defense has been an even bigger liability than his offense so far. Suffice it to say, that’s a problem for a center fielder with a 71 wRC+.

This isn’t just an OAA issue, either. By UZR, Straw ranks among the bottom five outfielders in the majors, just ahead of Kyle Schwarber, arguably the worst defensive outfielder in the game. Straw’s -0.5 DRP is better than his UZR, and his +1 DRS is better still, but the overall point remains: His defense seems to have taken a big step back. None of the metrics see him as an elite defender this season, and only one has him above league average. The small sample size warning applies, but even so, this is a strange turn of events for a young player who has been the definition of consistency since joining the Guardians at the 2021 trade deadline:

My immediate assumption was that Straw must have gotten slower; perhaps he was playing through an unrevealed injury. But it doesn’t seem like his physical skills have taken a hit. Straw has been healthy and durable throughout his time in Cleveland, and at 28 years old, he still has years of youth ahead of him. His sprint speed and time to first base remain the same, and he’s tied for eighth in the AL with 14 bolts (any run above 30 ft/sec). Thanks to the handy racing tool at Baseball Savant, we can even watch Straw race his past self down the line. Here’s 2022 Straw compared to 2023… or maybe it’s the other way around. It’s hard to keep track when the difference is so inconsequential:

But while Straw is running as fast as ever, his outfielder jump, as measured by Statcast, is noticeably worse. It sat in the 67th percentile in 2021 and the 58th in ’22, and this year it’s fallen from the reds to the blues. To be fair, he has never had terrific jump numbers, and that hasn’t been a problem. Nearly all of his defensive stats were better in 2022 than ’21, despite his jump numbers worsening. Moreover, an outfielder doesn’t necessarily need great jumps if he can run as fast as Straw can. In some cases, it might even help a fielder to get a slightly slower start, as long as he takes advantage of that extra time to plan his route and uses his footspeed to compensate for the delayed reaction. Nevertheless, Straw’s declining outfielder jump in conjunction with his negative OAA is a worrisome combination:

What’s most upsetting of all is that we haven’t seen nearly as many highlight-reel catches from a man typically capable of filling SportsCenter’s Top Ten all on his own. A quick search of MLB Film Room turned up only three of Straw’s catches this year that warranted highlights. One is an Anthony Volpe flyout, which required Straw to cover a tremendous amount of ground from his initial position in shallow right-center to the warning track at the deepest part of Yankee Stadium. Still, Straw had plenty of time to get there — he’s practically jogging in the clip — and his little leap at the end was more for show than anything else:

The other two catches are almost identical to one another. A couple of liners from Jonathan Schoop and Avisaíl García allowed Straw to show off his wheels, and he makes a nice grab each time. Still, you’re not winning any Gold Gloves if this is the pièce de résistance of your highlight reel:

I’ve been reading FanGraphs long enough to know that good defense is about more than web gems, but in this case, Straw’s dearth of incredible catches is one of the major reasons his fielding metrics are so poor. In 2022, he made eight four- or five-star catches (those with a Statcast catch probability of 50% or lower). The year before, he made seven. So far in 2023, he has yet to make a single one. Furthermore, he only has one three-star catch (probability between 51–75%), which is even more surprising, given that he cleaned up on three-star catches last season, making 21 in 26 chances.

Let’s start by looking at the lack of five-star catches, because that’s the easiest to explain. As the name implies, these plays are few and far between. Only 16 players made more than one last season, and only 10 made more than two. It isn’t a cause for concern that Straw doesn’t have one yet; only a quarter of qualified outfielders do. He had two last season and another two the year before, and all four came after the All-Star break. In 2021, both of them came within two weeks of one another. If Straw doesn’t have any five-star catches by September, then it might be time to reassess, but for now, it’s nothing to worry about. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he made two in the next week, shooting his OAA up into positive territory.

As for the three- and four-star catches, Straw simply hasn’t had enough chances to make them. The charts below show his three- and four-star catch opportunities in 2022 and ’23 (via Baseball Savant):

His lone three-star catch in 2023 (the orange dot on the upper-right chart) was his running grab against García. The ball had a 70% catch probability, thereby earning him 0.3 of an out above average. The three-star opportunity he missed (circled in green) had a 65% catch probability, so missing it cost him 0.65 of an out. Statcast, however, clearly doesn’t have a perfect grasp of the intricacies of the Green Monster. This might have been a catchable ball in most stadiums, but there’s no way to blame Straw for missing this one:

Just as Straw will presumably make a five-star grab or two at some point down the line, he should also see more three- and four-star opportunities. The ones he catches will hopefully make up for the ones he’s missed so far.

Straw has also bumbled a few cans of corn this year, something he didn’t do at all in 2022. These misplays have had a sizeable impact on his OAA since their catch probabilities were so high, but only one was truly an indictment of his defensive skills. Two were high fly balls with a 99% catch probability that he lost amid a miscommunication with his infielders. They were bad plays to be sure, but not in a way that makes me worry about his defense going forward. Then there was this liner from Kris Bryant. It’s clear that Straw misread the ball, as he has to change his route last minute to get behind it. With a better read, it’s easily the second out of the inning:

It’s not a smart play, but the outcome was hardly disastrous. That was also the first and only ball with a catch probability between 90–95% that Straw has missed in his Guardians career. Slip-ups happen, even to the best defenders, and as the year goes on, those rare mistakes will be weighted less heavily in his overall numbers.

The catch opportunities (or lack thereof) that Straw has had so far might also explain his poor outfielder jump numbers. Outfielder jump measures a player’s initial movement on two-, three-, four-, and five-star catch opportunities. So far in 2023, Straw’s opportunities have skewed to the extremes. In particular, he has had significantly more five-star chances, and of those, 82% have had a catch probability of 5% or below:

That’s a high percentage of balls that are nearly uncatchable. On those plays, it stands to reason that a good outfielder might take the time he needs to get behind the ball and field it on a hop rather than going all out on the off chance he can make a diving grab. I watched all nine of Straw’s 5% catch opportunities this year, and lo and behold, I wouldn’t say he was actively trying to make the catch on any of them. But he also didn’t let a single one go past him, either. Only two of those balls went for more than a single: a double off the wall by Francisco Lindor, and a double to right-center by Triston Casas that could have been a triple if Straw weren’t there to cut it off:

More than almost any other player in baseball, Straw needs to be an elite defender to stick on a major league roster; his offense certainly isn’t keeping him employed. The Guardians, more than any other team in baseball, need Gold Glove defense from their center fielder; their league-worst offense certainly isn’t getting them to the playoffs. Thankfully, Straw’s poor metrics don’t portend a major defensive fall-off; he simply hasn’t the right chances to make his mark. The Strawman still has all the necessary tools in his fielding utility belt, and as the sample size increases, he should be just fine.

Will Brennan is a hot hitter on a Cleveland Guardians team that has struggled to produce at the plate. Over his last eight games, the 25-year-old rookie outfielder is 14-for-29 with four doubles and a home run. Rebounding from a slow start, he is now slashing .261/.298/.380 with an 88 wRC+ on the season.

How good of a hitter Brennan will be at the big league level remains to be seen. An eighth-round pick in 2019 out of Kansas State University, he debuted last September and slashed .357/.400/.500 in 45 plate appearances, this after posting a .314/.371/.479 line between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. Currently no. 7 on our Guardians top prospects list, he was described by our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen as a hitter who generates “doubles power with a compact swing and all-fields approach to contact.”

Brennan sat down to talk hitting when the Guardians visited Fenway Park at the end of April. Read the rest of this entry »

Intending no disrespect to the Minnesota Twins, a lovely team with plenty of commendable players, but the AL Central is a bit of a joke this year. I guess that’s not too surprising — the Central champion has either had or shared the lowest win total among the American League division winners every year since 2017. But as of this writing, the Twins are just one game over .500, a record that would put them in a battle for fourth place (at best) in four of the five other divisions in baseball; nevertheless Minnesota is securely in first place.

Maybe 30 Rock was right, everything is easier in the Midwest. Read the rest of this entry »