Archive for JAWS

The following article is part of my ongoing look at the candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot. Originally written for the 2013 election at SI.com, it has been expanded and updated. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, use the tool above. An introduction to JAWS can be found here.

It took four position changes — from catcher to first base, then left field, right field, and finally center field — and parts of five major league seasons for the Braves to figure out where the 6-foot-4 Dale Murphy fit. Once they did, they had themselves a franchise centerpiece, a wholesome, milk-drinking superstar whom Sports Illustrated profiled for its July 4, 1983 cover story by proclaiming, “Murphy’s Law is Nice Guys Finish First.”

The title was a reference to the slugger helping the Braves to an NL West title the previous year, their lone playoff appearance during the 1970-90 stretch. “Here’s a guy who doesn’t drink, smoke, chew or cuss,” wrote Steve Wulf. “Here’s a guy who has time for everyone, a guy who’s slow to anger and eager to please, a guy whose agent’s name is Church. His favorite movie is Frank Capra’s It’s a Wonderful Life. He’s a wonderful ballplayer.” Let the record show that Wulf did unearth some dirt on Murphy, noting that he once got a speeding ticket for doing 35 in a 25-mph zone… while running late to speak to a church group.

Murphy won the first of his back-to-back MVP awards in 1982 as well as the first of his five consecutive Gold Gloves, and made his second of seven All-Star teams. He would spend most of the 1980s as one of the game’s best players. Alas, knee problems turned him into a shadow of the player he once was while he was still in his early 30s, and he played his final game in the majors at age 37. Read the rest of this entry »

The champagne and tears have barely dried in the wake of this year’s instant-classic World Series, but election season is already upon us. On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame officially unveiled the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, an eight-man slate covering players who made their greatest impact on the game from 1980 to the present and whose eligibility on the BBWAA ballot has lapsed. For the second year in a row, the Hall stole its own thunder, as an article in the Winter 2025 volume of its bimonthly Memories and Dreams magazine revealed the identities of the eight candidates prior to the official announcement. The mix includes some — but not all — of the controversial characters who have slipped off the writers’ ballot in recent years, including Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, as well as a couple surprises. This cycle also marks the first application of a new rule that could shape future elections.

Assembled by the Historical Overview Committee, an 11-person group of senior BBWAA members, the ballot includes Bonds, Clemens, and fellow holdovers Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, as well as newcomers Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela. As with any Hall election, this one requires 75% from the voters to gain entry. In this case, the panel — whose members won’t be revealed until much closer to election time — will consist of Hall of Famers, executives, and media members/historians, each of whom may tab up to three candidates when they meet on Sunday, December 7, at the Winter Meetings in Orlando. Anyone elected will be inducted alongside those elected by the BBWAA (whose own ballot will be released on November 17) on July 26, 2026 in Cooperstown. In the weeks before that, I’ll cover each candidate’s case in depth here at FanGraphs.

This is the fourth ballot since the Hall of Fame reconfigured its Era Committee system into a triennial format in April 2022, after a bumper crop of six honorees was elected by the Early Baseball and Golden Days Era Committees the previous December. The current format splits the pool of potential candidates into two timeframes: those who made their greatest impact on the game before 1980 (Classic Baseball Era), including Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black players, and those who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present day (Contemporary Baseball Era). The Contemporary group is further split into two ballots, one for players whose eligibility on BBWAA ballots has lapsed (Fred McGriff was elected in December 2022), and one for managers, executives, and umpires (Jim Leyland was elected in December 2023). Non-players from the Classic timeframe are lumped in with players, which doesn’t guarantee representation on the final ballot. Read the rest of this entry »

For a good chunk of this season, a third MVP award for Aaron Judge looked inevitable. As late as May 21, he still had a batting average above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 236 wRC+). As late as July 25, he had played every game and was on pace for 58 homers. And as late as August 6, he still had a slugging percentage above .700 (.339/.446/.702).

Unfortunately, a right flexor strain suffered while attempting to throw a runner out at the plate on July 22 sent Judge to the injured list a few day later. While he spent only the minimum 10 days on the IL, his bat cooled off, and now he’s neck-and-neck with Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race. But even if he doesn’t win, the 33-year-old Judge has done something very impressive. In just his 10th major league season, he’s surpassed the JAWS standard for right fielders, which is to say that he’s got a higher score (58.5) than the average enshrinee at the position (56.0).

With that distinction, Judge joins Mike Trout and Mookie Betts among active players to reach the JAWS standard at their positions by the time they fulfilled the Hall of Fame’s 10-year eligibility requirement (playing in parts of 10 seasons, not accruing 10 years of service time). That’s the province of legends; among position players whose careers crossed into the 21st century, the only others to attain that distinction are Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson, Mike Piazza, Albert Pujols, Cal Ripken Jr., and Alex Rodriguez. That makes Judge an apt choice to lead off the third and final installment of this year’s annual Hall of Fame progress series (pitchers and catchers are here, infielders here). Note that unless otherwise indicated, all WAR figures within refer to the Baseball Reference version, and all statistics are through September 1. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a big season for Manny Machado — a revival, as I termed it in June. After being hampered by tennis elbow in 2022 and ’23, then limited to DH duty in early ’24 while recovering from surgery to repair the extensor tendon in that troublesome right elbow, he’s played in all 132 games for the Padres, who ended the weekend tied for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers.

Along the way, Machado has collected some milestones. He clubbed his 350th home run, a two-run shot off the Giants’ Robbie Ray, on June 5, and he collected his 2,000th hit, an infield single off the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen, on July 7, the day after his 33rd birthday. By industry convention, based on a player’s age on June 30 of that season, Machado became just the 12th player to reach both milestones in his age-32 season or earlier, joining Hall of Famers Henry Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mel Ott, and Frank Robinson, future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, and cautionary tale Alex Rodriguez. That makes him an apt choice to lead off this installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress series; I checked on pitchers and catchers last week, and will cover outfielders and unicorns next week. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Kenley Jansen did his best to make life harder for his former team. Pitching for the Angels against the Dodgers in Anaheim, the 37-year-old closer secured the final three outs in a 7-4 victory on Monday, August 11. He gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth inning of a tied game on Tuesday by allowing a breathtaking solo homer to Shohei Ohtani, but the Angels came back, tying the score in the bottom of the ninth and winning in the 10th. On Wednesday, Jansen secured a sweep for the Angels by retiring Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith in order. The loss knocked the Dodgers out of first place for the first time since August 27.

That the Dodgers have retaken the top spot doesn’t detract from what’s been a banner season for Jansen. Pitching for the sub-.500 Angels — his third team in four years since departing the Dodgers in free agency — he’s posted a 2.68 ERA, his lowest mark since 2021. While his 24.6% strikeout rate is a career low and his 4.01 FIP is just off a career high, he’s notched 23 saves in 24 attempts and is now fourth all-time at 470, eight saves shy of Lee Smith’s 478, which stood as the major league record from late 1997 until Trevor Hoffman surpassed it in late 2006. Smith and Hoffman are now in the Hall of Fame, and Jansen has solidified his position as the next reliever due for serious consideration for Cooperstown. Not only does he have a legitimate shot at becoming the third pitcher to reach 500 saves following Hoffman (who finished with 601) and Mariano Rivera (603), but he’s closing in on 2025 enshrinee Billy Wagner’s no. 6 ranking in Reliever JAWS (R-JAWS).

Admittedly, relief pitching is a strange place to start my annual Hall of Fame progress series, but for reasons that will soon become apparent, opening this rundown with the starting pitchers made less sense, and when I began writing this roundup, Jansen’s jump in JAWS surprised me as much as that of any player. At the end of 2023, Jansen was tied for 14th with Craig Kimbrel, but he climbed to 10th by the end of ’24 and is now seventh, closing in on Wagner. So we’re beginning here; in this batch, I’ll get to the starters and catchers as well. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday, August 18. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Last week, for the second year in a row, BBWAA voters elected a trio of players to the Hall of Fame, namely first year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, plus 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones both finished within 10 points of election as well, setting themselves up for 2026. With that in mind, it’s time to look ahead to what the next five ballots have in store.

This is the 12th time I’ve broken out my crystal ball in such a manner, dating back to the wrap-up of my 2014 election coverage at SI.com. As of last year, I’ve now done this more times at FanGraphs than Sports Illustrated. That first edition was so long ago that candidates still had 15 years of eligibility instead of 10, and so I could afford to project Tim Raines for election in 2018, his 11th year of eligibility. The Hall’s unilateral decision to truncate candidacies to 10 years would come just months later, though thankfully voters accelerated their acceptance of Raines, who was elected in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The 2025 Hall of Fame election is in the books, with another trio — first-year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia joined by 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner — getting voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America. While Suzuki’s possible unanimity and Carlos Beltrán’s strong showing on publicly tracked ballots created some amount of suspense leading up to the announcement, nobody scraped the bar; all three candidates who made the cut cleared at least 80% of the vote. The last time everybody elected made it by such a comfortable margin was in 2016, when Ken Griffey Jr. (99.3%) and Mike Piazza (83%) gained entry, with the class of ’18 just missing out because Trevor Hoffman (79.9%) lagged. Suzuki, Sabathia, and Wagner will be inducted in Cooperstown along with Classic Baseball honorees Dave Parker and the late Dick Allen on July 27, 2025.

Here’s a tidbit you might not have been aware of that ties this class together: all three honorees are natural-born right-handers who learned to do their most important job left-handed. Wagner famously broke his right arm twice at age seven and learned to throw lefty, Sabathia struggled in T-ball until switching hands, and Suzuki was taught to hit lefty by his father. Both pitchers took their cuts lefty as well, though Ichiro threw right-handed.

As usual, beyond the topline results, there’s plenty to ruminate on. So as promised, here’s my candidate-by-candidate breakdown of the entire slate of 28 candidates, 15 of whom will return to the ballot next year. Note that except where indicated, all references to percentages in Ryan Thibodaux’s indispensable Tracker are based upon data as of 9 a.m. ET on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

As Derek Jeter goes, so goes Ichiro Suzuki. For the second time in the history of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, a candidate with an impeccable résumé has missed unanimous selection by a single vote from among nearly 400 ballots, leaving Mariano Rivera as the only player to run the table. Nonetheless — and far more importantly — Suzuki is Cooperstown-bound. In the voting results that were announced on Tuesday evening, Suzuki received 99.7% of the vote, and was joined by two other honorees, namely first-year candidate CC Sabathia (86.8%) and 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner (82.5%), the latter after missing election by just five votes last year.

Based upon the 216 ballots published in the Ballot Tracker prior to the announcement of the results, the only questions that carried real suspense were whether Suzuki would be unanimous and whether third-year candidate Carlos Beltrán would clear 75%. Beltran received 81.5% of the vote on published ballots, but finished with 70.3%, still a healthy 13.2-point jump from last year. Eighth-year candidate Andruw Jones, whose Tracker share hovered just below 75% for most of the cycle, finished with 66.2%. No other candidate received more than 40%, with second-year candidate Chase Utley (39.8%) the closest. Beltrán and Jones are well-positioned for election with next year’s slate, which lacks any candidate likely to be honored in his first year; Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun head that class.

This is the second year in a row that the writers have tabbed three candidates, after last year’s trio of Adrian Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer, and the seventh time in the past 12 cycles that the writers have elected more than two candidates. Over the 2014–25 span, the writers have elected 30 candidates, that despite one shutout (2021) and two cycles with just a single honoree (’22 and ’23). Read the rest of this entry »

Based upon the early returns, BBWAA voters appear likely to hit another trifecta on Tuesday when the results of this year’s Hall of Fame election are announced at 6 p.m. Eastern — and there’s even an outside chance that a fourth candidate could crash the party. But if the FanGraphs readers who participated in this year’s crowdsource ballot had their way, only two players would make the cut. In this year’s edition of our annual polling, which for the second year in a row set a new record for turnout, first-year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia were the only ones who topped 75%. Billy Wagner fell short despite the strong likelihood of his getting the call from the Hall in his 10th and final year on the ballot, and Carlos Beltrán — who has polled above 80% on the ballots released publicly thus far — missed out as well.

I’ll take a closer read of the tea leaves based upon the writers’ ballots that have been revealed, but first, let’s consider the readers’ entries. Registered users who participated in our poll were each allowed to submit one ballot with up to 10 candidates by the end of the day on December 31, just like roughly 400 BBWAA voters did for this year’s actual election — only we ink-stained wretches had to get to a mailbox with a prepaid envelope, where our users voted electronically. After more than tripling our turnout from 2023 (an unusually low year) to ’24 to set a record, we added another 344 votes this time around, a 20.7% increase:

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Adam Jones was Mr. Baltimore. Though he was born in San Diego and began his major league career in Seattle, Jones took to Baltimore upon being traded to the Orioles in 2008. On the field, he set an example for younger teammates during lean years, and his combination of power, speed, and graceful defense eventually helped the team end an epic streak of futility. He served as a starter on the Orioles’ first three playoff teams in this millennium, winning four Gold Gloves and making five All-Star teams. Off the field, Jones invested in the city, annually donating a significant chunk of his salary to the local Boys & Girls Club and other charitable endeavors. He emerged as a civic icon, a Black athlete who could relate to the hardships experienced by the city’s Black population, and one who wasn’t afraid to speak out regarding the injustices he saw both locally and nationally.

Jones’ national prominence reached its zenith in 2017 when he made a memorable, iconic catch to rob Manny Machado of a home run while playing center field during the World Baseball Classic — a key moment in helping Team USA win the tournament for the only time thus far. Read the rest of this entry »