Gerrit Cole faced Jordan Walker for the first time on Wednesday, and he came away impressed. The New York Yankees ace induced a ground-ball out from the top prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals system in the first inning, but then surrendered a line-drive single to him on a 95-mph heater a handful of frames later. When Cole met with members of the media mid-game — standard fare for starters during spring training — I asked him about his matchups with the fast-rising phenom.

“I thought he put a good swing on it,” Cole said of Walker’s knock. “It was a good adjustment from the first at-bat. It was a good pitch, a borderline ball, and one of the better swings of the day, for sure.”

Cole needed clarification as to whom he was opining on before offering the praise. Understandably focusing on preparing for the regular season, he admitted — this with the caveat that he wasn’t being disrespectful — he didn’t know where Walker was hitting in the St. Louis lineup.

Walker was understandably very aware of Cole. Asked about what the five-time All-Star had said — the question came from a St. Louis scribe whom I’d shared the quotes with — he was equal parts pleased and humble.

“It means a lot, man,” said Walker, who is No. 12 on our Top 100 and at age 20 has a legitimate chance to break camp with the Cardinals. “He’s a helluva pitcher. His stuff was really electric today. His stuff was really jumping. His slider was good. So it means a lot to hear that from him. A wonderful pitcher.”

As Cardinals fans are discovering, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Stone Mountain, Georgia native is more than just a star in the making. He also exudes fun. I asked the effervescent outfielder how he is balancing that trait alongside being hyper-focused in his quest to earn a big-league job. Read the rest of this entry »

Harry Ford is one of the top prospects in the Seattle Mariners organization, and he is also unique among his peers. Born Harrison Michael Ford, in Atlanta, 20 years ago this week, the right-handed-hitting catcher is the son of English immigrants. His mother spent her childhood in London, while his father — “a real Brit; he still has an accent”— came to the U.S. a little over two decades ago from Oxford. Moreover, his multi-national upbringing included his family’s having hosted exchange students from Argentina, Brazil, and Germany.

If the above list of countries has you wondering if football — soccer to us here in the States — has been a part of his life, the answer is yes. Ford’s father is a huge Arsenal fan who used to play in a competitive men’s league, while the youngster impressed on the pitch in his schoolboy days before turning his full attention to baseball. Given that Ford is a muscular 5-foot-10, 200-pounds and has been called a unicorn due to the speed that augments his frame, how good might he have been had he pursued his father’s favorite sport rather than America’s national pastime?

“I think I’d go crazy in soccer!” was Ford’s fun-loving (and quite possibly accurate) response to that question, meaning that he would excel. Instead he is excelling on the diamond, and he’s doing so at a position that belies his athleticism. How he found himself wearing the tools of ignorance was a matter of happenstance.

“I was always a third baseman, but when I was eight or 10 we needed someone to play catcher,” explained Ford, whom the Mariners took 12th overall in the 2021 draft. “I remember that there was this royal blue, really ugly gear, and I was like, ‘I’ll try it. Why not? ‘I got back there and liked it, and haven’t left it since.”

As uncommon as it is for elite athletes to end up behind the plate, it has been an even less common destination for African Americans. Black catchers have been few and far between in MLB history. To Ford’s mind, “It will be cool to change that stigma.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce that they’re hiring a new podcast editor and solicit applications for the position, then (9:40) banter about another zombie-runner-related update to dictionary.com, MLB’s latest crackdown on sticky stuff, displaying the pitch clock on broadcast score bugs, Albert Pujols’s 10-year personal services contract with the Angels, and Rays pitcher Ryan Thompson’s comments about the arbitration process. After that, they continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Philadelphia Phillies (50:09) with Matt Gelb of The Athletic, and the Baltimore Orioles (1:26:47) with Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun, plus a double Past Blast from 1973 (2:05:42).

Audio intro: Girlpool, “Hire”
Audio interstitial 1: The House of Love, “Philly Phile”
Audio interstitial 2: The Felice Brothers, “Baltimore”
Audio outro: Emitt Rhodes, “Really Wanted You”

Link to updated “automatic runner” entry
Link to current “ghost runner” entry
Link to original “ghost runner” entry
Link to 1985 “automatic runner” reference
Link to other ’85 reference
Link to Hang Up and Listen episode
Link to Stark on sticky stuff
Link to Eno on sticky stuff
Link to Eno on sticky stuff again
Link to info on crows
Link to info on score bugs
Link to Blum on Pujols
Link to Thompson’s Twitter thread
Link to Thompson’s agency site
Link to Rosenthal on arbitration
Link to BP’s Arbitration Showdown
Link to FG post on arbitrators
Link to Rays Pride Night story
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to FG payroll rankings
Link to Phillies offseason tracker
Link to Phillies depth chart
Link to Middleton comments
Link to Matt’s spring training preview
Link to Matt on Painter
Link to ESPN on Song
Link to Matt on Song
Link to Matt on Thomson
Link to Matt’s author archive
Link to Orioles offseason tracker
Link to Orioles depth chart
Link to Plexiglass Principle info
Link to MLB.com regression article
Link to Sun sign removal tweet
Link to Nathan on the Sun sign
Link to Nathan on Angelos
Link to Nathan on Orioles team models
Link to story on throwing over plate
Link to more on throwing over plate
Link to BA on throwing over plate
Link to Angelos MLK Day story
Link to Angelos open books story
Link to story on throwing over plate
Link to Nathan’s author archive
Link to 1973 article source
Link to MLB 3-team doubleheaders
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to 1973 potential tie source
Link to 1973 potential tiebreaker source
Link to 1973 “NL Least” source
Link to story on 1973 race
Link to Ben on a 5-way tie
Link to Russell on a 5-way tie
Link to EW episode on a 5-way tie
Link to Jay Jaffe’s team entropy requiem

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Colt Keith started to tap into his power last year. After going deep just twice in 2021 — his first professional season — the 21-year-old third baseman homered nine times in 48 games with High-A West Michigan before landing on the injured list with a dislocated shoulder in early June. Returning to action in October, Keith proceeded to hit three bombs in 19 Arizona Fall League games.

The increased power production by one of the top position-player prospects in the Detroit Tigers organization was by design.

“I changed my approach a little bit,” Keith told me during his stint in the AFL. “I started trying to hit balls out in front, and backspin them to all fields, looking for a little bit more power. A lot of people had told me I just needed to keep doing what I was doing, but looking at guys in the big leagues that I want to play like, they’re hitting 25-30 homers a year. I felt like I needed to move in that direction. At the same time, I want to keep my hit tool. Batting .300 with some home runs is what I’d like to do.”

That is what he did this past season. The 6-foot-3, 238-pound infielder — Keith has added meaningful size and strength since entering pro ball — augmented his regular-season round-trippers with a .301/.370/.544 slash line. In 2021, he’d slashed .320/.437/.422 with Low-A Lakeland before scuffling over the final month as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. Read the rest of this entry »

Heston Kjerstad’s path to the big leagues began with a serious speed bump. Shortly after being taken second overall by the Orioles in the 2020 draft out of the University of Arkansas, the left-handed-hitting outfielder was diagnosed with myocarditis. He has since fully recovered, but because of a high-grade hamstring injury incurred last spring, he wasn’t able to make his professional debut until June. He didn’t forget how to hit during the long layoff. In 284 plate appearances between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Aberdeen, Kjerstad slashed .309/.394/.457 with a 135 wRC+. Moreover, he proceeded to earn MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League by pummeling pitchers to the tune of a 1.007 OPS.

No. 7 in a loaded Baltimore Orioles system, Kjerstad will celebrate his 24th birthday on Sunday. He talked hitting during his stint in the AFL.

———

David Laurila: Tell me about your progression as a hitter. You were obviously out of action with the health issue for some time.

Heston Kjerstad: “You know, it’s part of the game. Everybody misses time here and there, but you’ve done it for so long and practiced it so much that while there is a little rust to be knocked off, it’s going to come back to you. And honestly, there are some things you learn from being away from the game, and you apply them once you are back.” Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 1011

This week, we sit down with one of the bright baseball minds in Baltimore before getting our lead prospect analyst’s backstory.

• At the top of the show, David Laurila welcomes Sig Mejdal, vice president and assistant general manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Mejdal tells us about breaking into baseball with the Cardinals, and what his day-to-day with Mike Elias and former podcast guest Eve Rosenbaum is like. Mejdal also shares his thoughts on analytics and data, and what his team of analysts are working on in Baltimore. Finally, David asks about spending a season in the minors, seeing Albert Pujols in his prime, and how difficult it was to trade Trey Mancini. [3:32]
• After that, Ben Clemens is joined by Eric Longenhagen for the latest edition of FanGraphs Backstories. Eric tells us about interning with his hometown IronPigs, taking up writing because he got mono, working at Baseball Info Solutions, and eventually ending up at FanGraphs. Ben also asks Eric about his favorite baseball memories, which include dressing up as Mark McGwire for Halloween and going to Veterans Stadium for his first major league game. The duo also discuss the Super Bowl being in Arizona and how going to Eagles training camp had an impact on Eric’s path. [24:20]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 15 minute play time.)

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In 2021, John Means rode a command-first approach to the best pitching season on the Orioles. In 2022, Means missed most of the season – and Jordan Lyles and Dean Kremer both rode command-first approaches to the best starting pitching performances on the team. Now Lyles is gone and Means isn’t yet back from Tommy John, so the Orioles did what they had to do: traded for Cole Irvin, who will now inevitably ride a command-first approach to post the best numbers of any Orioles starter in 2023.

That’s my main takeaway from last week’s trade with the Oakland Athletics. The full trade: Irvin and prospect Kyle Virbitsky are headed to Baltimore in exchange for prospect Darell Hernaiz. In broad strokes, the deal makes sense: the A’s are continuing to get rid of every major leaguer they possibly can, while the Orioles look to make marginal improvements to their major league roster to back up last year’s breakthrough. But Irvin is hardly a slam dunk rotation topper, so I think it’s worth investigating what the O’s might see in him.

The first-level reason to acquire Irvin is probably the best one. He’s a left-handed fly-ball pitcher, and the new configuration of Camden Yards favors that skill set. The team pushed the left field wall back in 2022, and righties simply stopped hitting homers. In 2021, Baltimore was the easiest place for righties to hit home runs. In 2022, it was the sixth-toughest, a massive swing. Oakland has always been a pitcher-friendly park, and Irvin took good advantage of that; he should find similar success in the newly-spacious Camden. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

On September 7, 1996, Scott Rolen’s journey to the Hall of Fame took a painful, but perhaps ultimately fortuitous twist. That afternoon, the Phillies played the Cubs at Veterans Stadium. Rolen had recorded his 130th at-bat of the year in the bottom of the first: With the bases loaded and one out, he struck out on four pitches against Steve Trachsel. Two innings later, Rolen came up for what was supposed to be at-bat no. 131. Instead, Trachsel hit him in the forearm with a pitch, breaking the ulna in Rolen’s right forearm.

The 21-year-old Rolen took his base, then tried to gut it out in the field in the top of the fourth. He lasted three batters, then could continue no longer. Jim Fregosi pulled Rolen and replaced him with Kevin Sefcik, one of the dozens of interchangeable Kevins who filled out the rosters of the mid-90s Phillies. Rolen took no further part in the 1996 season.

The following year, Rolen played 156 games, hit .283/.377/.469 with 21 home runs and 16 stolen bases, and cakewalked to a unanimous victory in the NL Rookie of the Year race. It was Rolen’s first piece of individual hardware, and one that would not have been possible had Trachsel not plunked him the previous September. Read the rest of this entry »

Last season was a fun one for the Baltimore Orioles. Coming off of five straight sub-.500 seasons and a particularly torturous 110-loss campaign, the Birds had a 24-35 record before starting to turn things around in late June. Just before the All-Star break, they went on an improbable 10-game winning streak to jump over .500, and after the break, they kept the momentum moving their way, even making a short-lived run at the third American League Wild Card spot (they ultimately fell just three games short). It started to look like the dawn of a new era in Baltimore, and much of the spark came from a revamped lineup. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson made their highly anticipated big league debuts and did not disappoint – particularly the former, who turned in one of the finest rookie seasons by a catcher in recent memory. Cedric Mullins followed up his breakout 2021 with another solid season. Anthony Santander set a new career high with a team-leading 33 home runs. And then there was Ryan Mountcastle.

After leading the Orioles with 33 homers and 89 RBI in 2021 in his full-season debut, Mountcastle’s offensive production faded last season. He hit just 22 home runs, while his slugging dropped from .487 to .423, his wOBA from .335 to .316, and his wRC+ from 111 to 106. His defense improved enough to allow him to reach 1.6 WAR, a new career high, but for a player whose calling card is power, his waning surface-level thump was at least indicative of a sophomore slump and at most a cause for concern.

But Mountcastle’s Statcast profile and expected stats tell an entirely different story. In 2021, the slugger was in the middle of the pack, with an average exit velocity of 89.1 mph (45th percentile) and a 39.7% hard-hit rate (41st); his .245 xBA and .326 xwOBA placed him in the 36th and 47th percentiles, respectively. By these measures, his 2022 was one of the better year-over-year improvements in baseball. He added 2.2 mph to his average exit velocity, the seventh-largest increase among players who qualified in both years, and 6.6 percentage points to his hard-hit rate, the sixth-most in that group. Just four hitters added more to their xBAs than his .032 points, and the only hitters who managed to improve their xwOBAs more than his .036-point jump were Yordan Alvarez (.073), Christian Walker (.048), and Aaron Judge (.045). His was one of just 40 player-seasons in the Statcast era with 60-plus barrels. Read the rest of this entry »