With only a month left in the season, the tiers in these power rankings have mostly solidified. There are plenty of interesting storylines to follow as the season winds down, though, with plenty of playoff positions still up in the air.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday, September 4.

Last week, the Dodgers lost their first series since dropping two of three to the Nationals in late July. They also lost multiple games in a row — a losing streak of three! — for the first time since that series against Washington. And with their loss to the Giants on Monday night, the Dodgers have now lost four times in a six-game span. It’s not all bad news in Los Angeles; Clayton Kershaw returned from the IL last week, though Tony Gonsolin replaced him on the sidelines with a forearm strain. Still, they’re on pace to break their franchise win record and are within spitting distance of topping the major league record set by the Mariners in 2001.

The Astros don’t need much else to go right for them this year — they’re already comfortably the top seed in the American League and the favorite to make another World Series appearance out of the Junior Circuit — but they got a nice boost anyway from their top pitching prospect, Hunter Brown, who made his major league debut on Monday night and held the Rangers scoreless over six innings. With Justin Verlander still sidelined with a minor calf injury, Brown should get an opportunity to show what he’s made of as the Astros ease into the playoffs. Read the rest of this entry »

With the playoff pictures in both leagues nearly settled with a month left to play, big matchups between the best teams lose a little meaning without the high stakes of a close pennant race hanging in the balance. Still, there are a few competitive divisions, and the Wild Card race in both leagues should be exciting down to the end of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Despite nine wins over their last 13 games, the Dodgers have slowed down just a touch, though they’re still on pace for 113 wins this year, or a .698 winning percentage. History awaits if they can crest the .700 mark: Only the 1998 Yankees and 2001 Mariners have finished a full 162-game season with a winning percentage that high or better. After wrapping up their series with the Marlins on Monday, they have a tough stretch of games ahead of them: three in New York against the Mets and then six games against the Padres split up by a three-game set against the Giants. If they can get through this part of their schedule at their current pace, they’ll have a good shot of becoming the third team ever to finish with 114 wins or more.

Even though they just dropped two of three to the Orioles over the weekend, the Astros have elevated themselves over all the other teams in the American League. Houston has played extremely well all season long and has a soft schedule on the docket, with six straight series against teams with records below .500. Of some concern: the Astros scored just four runs total against Baltimore. Justin Verlander, the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award, was also forced to exit his start on Sunday with a calf injury. The offensive woes should sort themselves out, but losing Verlander for an extended period of time would be a serious blow. Read the rest of this entry »

With less than a third of the season remaining, it’s crunch time for a number of teams on the playoff bubble. There are still division titles up for grabs in both Central divisions, and both Wild Card races are shaping up to remain exciting down to the last day.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday, August 14.

The Dodgers had a 12-game win streak — which included sweeps of the Giants, Padres, and Twins — snapped on Sunday. They’ve lost just four times since the All-Star break and have asserted themselves as the best team in baseball as the summer rolls on. This hot streak comes despite plenty of uncertainty surrounding their starting rotation; Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list last week with a lower back strain, and the team announced yesterday that Walker Buehler would undergo elbow surgery, ending his season. They’ll be glad to welcome back Dustin May from his Tommy John rehab this weekend. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is nearly upon us, and there are plenty of teams still vying for playoff position in both the AL and NL. It’s been a slow hot stove season so far, but there should be plenty of action over the next two days as teams try to position themselves for the stretch run.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees stumbled out of the All-Star break a bit, getting swept in a pair of two-game series against the Astros and Mets. They took care of business against the Orioles and Royals and continue to hold a commanding lead in the AL East, but they did slip behind the Dodgers for the overall best record in baseball and hold a slim two-game lead over the Astros for the top seed in the American League. They got an early start on their deadline shopping by trading for Andrew Benintendi to stabilize their outfield. They’ll almost certainly be in the market for pitching help, too, especially after Michael King was lost for the season with a fractured elbow. And as for your weekly Aaron Judge check-in: he’s blasted nine home runs since the All-Star break, no big deal.

The Dodgers emphatically started off the second half with a four-game sweep of the Giants two weekends ago. Those two teams match up for four more games in San Francisco to start this week, with a series against the Padres immediately afterwards. Neither division rival is anywhere close to challenging for the NL West, but a solid week against these two teams should all but wrap up the division for Los Angeles in the first week of August.

This week in “you can’t predict baseball,” the Astros sandwiched a pair of series wins against the Mariners between a three-game sweep at the hands of the A’s. Interestingly, they’re reportedly open to moving one of their starters prior to the deadline; they’re currently running a six-man rotation, Lance McCullers Jr. is close to returning from his elbow injury he suffered last year during the postseason, and they have a number of pitching prospects currently throwing well at Triple-A. It’s an enviable situation to be in, and one that is rare given how high pitcher attrition rates are in the modern era. Read the rest of this entry »

We head into the All-Star break with very little movement in the top five but tons of ups and downs in the middle of these power rankings.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees head into the All-Star break on a high note after scoring 27 runs against the Red Sox on Saturday and Sunday. That smackdown redeemed a week that hadn’t gone all that well before the weekend, with New York’s normally sturdy bullpen blowing two games (and nearly a third) against the Reds and another against the Red Sox. The emergence of Clay Holmes and Michael King has solidified a relief corps that has lost Chad Green and Jonathan Loáisiga to injuries and has had to work around a diminished Aroldis Chapman. With Luis Severino headed to the IL after exiting his start early on Wednesday, a bullpen upgrade probably isn’t the top priority at the trade deadline, but the Yankees definitely need to get their relievers in order for the stretch run and the postseason.

The Astros limped into the break a bit after dropping two of three to the A’s over the weekend. They’re hoping that Yordan Alvarez will be ready to be activated from the IL next week once play resumes, because their upcoming schedule looks daunting: a double-header against the Yankees on Thursday before playing the streaking Mariners seven times in two weeks, followed by series against the Red Sox and Guardians.

The Dodgers closed out the first half of the season on a 15–2 run and have opened up a 10-game lead in the NL West. Just a month ago, the Padres were breathing down their necks; now they enjoy the second-largest divisional lead in the majors. The man carrying the club right now? Freddie Freeman, who has collected 16 hits in his last six games, including three homers and five doubles. Read the rest of this entry »

With the All-Star break right around the corner, a few teams have made surprising charges up the standings. There are at least 10 teams vying for as few as four playoff spots which should make for a second half packed with drama.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Dodgers just wrapped up an 11-game homestand with 10 wins, including back-to-back sweeps of the Rockies and Cubs, and have built an eight-game lead in the NL West in just a couple of weeks. That’s enough to bump them back into the top tier with the Yankees and Astros. Mookie Betts has shown no ill effects from his rib injury, collecting three home runs last week, including two on Thursday. The pitching staff, meanwhile, allowed four or more runs in a game on Sunday for the first time since June 28. Tony Gonsolin has continued to shine and has made a strong case to make the start for the NL All-Stars in Los Angeles next week.

The Yankees ended up splitting their four-game series against the Red Sox over the weekend, losing the last two games on Saturday and Sunday. Thanks to their huge lead in the AL East, it would be a miracle if anyone caught them, but they have slipped behind the pace of the 2001 Mariners and are now on track to win 115 games this season. They’ll head into the All-Star break with three against the Reds and another three against Boston.

Like the Yankees, the Astros have built such a big lead in their division that they can take their foot off the gas pedal just a bit as they head into the midseason break. To that end, they placed Yordan Alvarez on the IL with hand inflammation that he’s been dealing with since late June. There’s never an ideal time to lose your best hitter, but the upcoming All-Star break will give the AL MVP contender a little extra time to heal, and facing the floundering Angels and A’s before the midsummer pause should help ease the blow to the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve hit the halfway mark of the season, and two teams are really pulling away in the American League. The Wild Card races are filled with intrigue, however, and there are plenty of divisions still up for grabs in the National League.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday, July 3.

Both the Yankees and Astros have left the rest of the field in the American League far behind, leading their respective divisions by double-digit games and all but clinching playoff spots with three whole months to go. Of these two, Houston has been playing a bit better than New York recently, extending its winning streak to seven games yesterday afternoon on a Yordan Alvarez walk-off blast. The fact that he was in the lineup at all was a bit of good fortune after his ugly collision with Jeremy Peña last week. They ended up missing just a handful of games, with both helping the Astros demolish the Angels in a three-game sweep over the weekend.

Outside of their struggles against the Astros over the last two weeks, the Yankees have taken care of business against the A’s and Guardians as they continue to pad their lead in the AL East. And while it won’t tip the scales all that much if they falter, they’ll play the Red Sox seven times heading into the All-Star break. A strong showing against their biggest rival would give them even more breathing room as they head into the second half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been an eventful two weeks as teams continue to jockey for position heading into midseason.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

In a preview of a potential ALCS matchup, the Yankees and Astros played a highly entertaining four-game series this weekend. Houston would have held the advantage if it weren’t for some dramatic come-from-behind wins on Thursday and Sunday. In between those two walk-off wins, the Astros put together 16.1 consecutive hitless innings, including a combined no-hitter on Saturday. The Yankees actually didn’t lead at any point during any of the four games until the final batters on Thursday and Sunday, with Aaron Judge delivering the decisive hit both times. That four-game set against Houston wrapped up a tough stretch of games that saw the Yankees also face the Rays six times and the Blue Jays three; they exit this gauntlet with a 9-4 record against some of the best the American League has to offer. Read the rest of this entry »

Win streaks and losing streaks across baseball have resulted in some major movement in the power rankings this week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

I considered putting the Yankees in their own tier at the top of these rankings this week; that’s how well they’ve been playing recently. They absolutely crushed the Cubs during a three-game weekend series, launching 11 home runs and outscoring Chicago, 28–5. Matt Carpenter has collected eight hits since joining the Yanks in late May, and six of them have been home runs, including two on Sunday. Oh, and their pitching staff has been one of the best in the majors, too. They’re firing on all cylinders at just the right time; their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks, with a pair of series against the Rays, a series in Toronto, and a four-game set against the Astros.

After handling the White Sox earlier in the week, the Dodgers traveled to San Francisco over the weekend and scored just four runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of their division rival. To make matters worse, Walker Buehler left his start on Friday after just four innings with elbow discomfort. The next day, the Dodgers announced that he’ll be shut down for two months with a flexor strain. Clayton Kershaw returned from his own Injured List stint over the weekend, and Andrew Heaney is on the mend and should be activated sometime this week. Still, with the Padres and Giants breathing down their necks in the NL West, the Dodgers’ margin for error just got a lot thinner without Buehler in the rotation for a while.

The Mets wrapped up a long West Coast road trip with a series win against the Angels over the weekend. That gave them a 5–5 record during the trip, a perfectly acceptable outcome based on the tough opponents and travel they faced. Since Max Scherzer went down with his oblique injury in mid-May, New York has gone 15–8 and maintained a strong grip on the NL East. The Braves’ recent hot streak may cause some concern, but the Mets have proven they’re a good enough team even without their two best pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

With two months of the season in the books, the various tiers of teams have mostly sorted themselves out. Anything can happen over these next four months, but it does seem like the best teams have separated themselves from the pack.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees are back on top after winning six straight last week, sweeping the Angels and Tigers at home. Aaron Judge has continued to mash baseballs on a nearly daily basis, adding three more home runs to his league leading total last week; the big bet he placed on himself when he turned down the Yankees’ preseason extension offer seems to have paid off. New York also welcomed Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson back from the Injured List last week, bringing their lineup back to full strength. The pitching staff has been even more impressive. Over their last 11 games, the Yanks have allowed a total of 16 runs, and they held the Angels and Tigers to just seven runs in those six victories.

Don’t look now, but the Astros have opened up a huge 8.5-game lead in the AL West. Some of that is due to the Angels’ free fall, but Houston has also played some excellent baseball since the calendar turned over to May; they’ve gone 24–9 since then, tied for the best mark in baseball with the Yankees. They also signed their slugging superstar Yordan Alvarez to a huge six-year extension last week.

A week after reclaiming the top spot in these rankings, the Dodgers had another week to forget and tumbled to the back of this tier, getting swept at home for the first time since August 2018 by the scrappy Pirates and then splitting a four-game series against the Mets over the weekend. The continuing struggles of Walker Buehler are a concern, as he couldn’t get out of the third inning in his last start against the Mets on Saturday. Luckily, Tyler Anderson has picked up a lot of the slack, and Los Angeles should be getting Clayton Kershaw back from the IL this week. Read the rest of this entry »