The Blue Jays and Mariners have swung the biggest trade of the young offseason so far, as Seattle has acquired Teoscar Hernández from Toronto in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect, Adam Macko.

For the Mariners, the calculus for this trade is simple: immediate improvement on the offensive side of things by adding one of the 30 best hitters in baseball. The table below shows hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season, ranked by wRC+:

That 132 wRC+ comes with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. That shaky plate discipline and a BABIP that ran well above average (.345) made it unclear whether Hernández could sustain this success. But changes to his stance and leg lift unlocked a part of his swing that allowed him to make hard contact in the air more consistently. Once a hitter figures out how to do that and has a 96th percentile average exit velocity like he does, the odds are in their favor.

This trade signals a few things from the Mariners. The first is that long-time outfielder Mitch Haniger is unlikely to return. That’s not shocking, given that he wasn’t extended a qualifying offer and that he seems to have already hit his offensive peak. The second is that they are going all in to try to catch the defending World Series champion Astros. Hernández is not a long-term addition; he’s under contract for just the 2023 season. This is, essentially, a one-year rental to goose the offense.

Shipping Swanson away isn’t ideal for Seattle, given his fantastic performance this season: a 1.85 FIP in 53.2 innings. But the team’s usage of him in the postseason — he only threw one inning in five games of play — suggests that he’s seen as expendable, making him an easy choice to include in a trade for a top-30 hitter. After all, even if the Mariners love Swanson’s pedigree and stuff, it’s always worth trading middle relievers for productive hitters, even if they have only one more year of team control.

That said, I’m a firm believer in Swanson. His whiff rates on his four-seamer and splitter are both well above average, and he seems to have perfected how to use them to go with his above-average extension and straight over the top delivery. The Jays’ most glaring weakness was their bullpen, so if their goal was to improve it, then they have succeeded.

The bigger question mark in the deal is Macko. He topped out this year with 38.1 innings in High A, striking out just under 36% of the hitters he faced, but he also walked 12% of them. He was solid with a 3.77 FIP and 3.21 xFIP as well. That’s all well and good, but with minor league pitchers, it’s always important to get to the good stuff — literally. So I asked Eric Longenhagen, who is constantly sourced for information, for the goods on Macko, and lucky for us, Eric got a few looks at him in the Arizona Fall League. Check out the video below to get a better look of Macko’s stuff and mechanics.

Per Eric, Macko had some Jekyll and Hyde characteristics in Arizona, with his secondaries and command coming and going depending on the outing. That makes sense, given his walk rates. When he was on, his stuff was interesting. He has two breaking balls: a curve of the loopy ilk that comes in at the low-70s, and a slider that’s more of a mid-80s gyro spin-dominant kind. Macko tended to pitch backwards in the AFL with those two pitches, adding a running four-seamer at 93–94 mph and topping at 96 to finish hitters off in the top of the zone.

To me, the most interesting tidbit was that Macko has rather short arms and as a result can get down the mound to a low release point. That’s ideal for getting whiffs and popups on fastballs at the top of the zone. By the looks of it, the spin is pretty true as well. It might not be perfect, but Macko’s fingers stay over the ball very well, which goes right in line with the pitch playing up the zone. The curveball might not have great specs on its own, but when paired with this deceptive fastball, hitters struggle to hit it. It’s the classic pairing of high four-seamers and big depth curveballs below the zone.

When Macko has command of the slider, it flashes plus. During the regular season, he used that pitch nearly a quarter of the time, and the fastball just about half the time. The curve had about a 15% usage; he also featured a changeup sparingly. Per Eric, that pitch also flashed plus when he used it. I know this all sounds exciting, but it’s always important to remind yourself that the saying of “if the command is there” needs to be at the forefront of your mind. This big “if” is enough to put Macko in the 45+ FV tier, rather than at 50 or above. But given that the Jays’ system isn’t too deep anymore, that will put him easily in their top 10 when Eric updates it.

To recap, the Mariners get a fantastic hitter to slot right into the middle of their lineup, and the Jays get a quality reliever and intriguing pitching prospect. This trade is likely only a prelude to more moves from the Jays, though; there are rumblings all around suggesting that George Springer’s time in center field will soon come to a close, and it seems like there is another play to be made there. After all, you can’t move a 130 wRC+ hitter for only a middle reliever and expect your team to improve. This is all speculation, but there is almost certainly more to come.

Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post. Over the next few days, I’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. I’ll spend more time discussing players who I think need scouting updates or who I haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report. The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect my updated opinions, and may be subject to change during the offseason.

Baltimore Orioles

Current 40-man Count: 39
Added Prospects: SP Grayson Rodriguez (60 FV), SS Joey Ortiz (50 FV), SP Seth Johnson (40+ FV), SP Drew Rom (40 FV), MIRP Noah Denoyer (35+ FV)
External Additions: CF Daz Cameron (waivers from Detroit), C Mark Kolozsvary (35+ FV, waivers from Reds)

In addition to free agent departures (Rougned Odor and Jesús Aguilar to name a few), the Orioles primed space on their 40-man roster by outrighting several fringe big leaguers, and opened Tuesday morning with just 34 players on their 40-man. They’ve had an especially high rate of turnover at catcher over the last few weeks, as they let Robinson Chirinos walk in free agency, outrighted Cam Gallagher and Anthony Bemboom off the roster, claimed both Aramis Garcia and Mark Kolozsvary off waivers from the Reds, and then outrighted Garcia. I have Kolozsvary, who is still prospect-eligible, evaluated as a third catcher on the 40-man.

Mike Elias also scooped up old buddy Daz Cameron, who replaces Yusniel Diaz on the 40-man. Daz has been in “prospect limbo” for about a year, as he graduated from rookie status in 2021 but still spent most of this season in the minors. The 40 FV (a fifth outfielder eval) and tool grades assigned to him at that time still hold (you can see those on his player page), making Daz a defensive upgrade to Diaz (who was outrighted off the roster) and a L/R fit with a couple other Orioles outfielders (Kyle Stowers, Cedric Mullins, maybe some Terrin Vavra). Cameron is out of options while Ryan McKenna (who I preferred to Cameron as a prospect by the time he graduated) is not, so barring further moves I assume Daz is more likely to break camp with the big club at this point. Read the rest of this entry »

Addison Barger put up the best numbers of any hitter in the Toronto Blue Jays system this season, and he did so with a hitting style that was initially influenced by Ichiro Suzuki.

“I’m naturally a right-handed hitter, and actually switch-hit throughout high school,” explained Barger, who now hits exclusively from the left side. “At the time I started hitting left-handed, around 10 years old, I was obsessed with Japanese players and the Japanese style of hitting. A big leg kick was part of that, and it’s something I mimicked. It just stuck with me.”

That’s not to suggest the 22-year-old infielder profiles similarly to the Japanese icon and erstwhile Seattle Mariner that he grew up watching in Bellevue, Washington. That aforementioned big leg kick is one point of difference; while more pronounced during his NPB days and at times early in his MLB career, Ichiro’s was never as high as the one Barger currently employs. And Barger is no Ichiro-like slasher. The future Hall of Famer had a swing designed to slash line drives into the opposite-field gap. Barger’s M.O. is now the inverse. Indeed, as evidenced by the 26 home runs he hit across three levels, Barger is a basher. Read the rest of this entry »

Toronto Blue Jays – Entry Level Opportunities

The Toronto Blue Jays are seeking highly motivated and creative entry level employees to assist with day-to-day tasks within various areas of their Baseball Operations department, including but not limited to Scouting, Player Development, High Performance, and Research and Development/Analytics. The start and end dates are flexible depending on candidate availability and both full-season and partial-season candidates will be considered. These positions will be based in Toronto, ON; Dunedin, FL; or one of our affiliate locations throughout Canada, the United States, and Dominican Republic. All positions are paid.

There are several roles with different primary focuses, with more detail on each broad type of position provided below. To the extent that you’re interested in a specific focus you may reflect that in your application, but you only need to submit one application to the program and all applications will be considered for possible fits. These job categories are intentionally broad, and a successful candidate may be considered for a role that involves a blend of these responsibilities, or in an entirely different area that is more suited to their unique experiences and skills.

Across all roles, the Blue Jays are seeking:

• Demonstrated passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals.
• Demonstrated ability to work independently and self-direct work.
• Excellent attention to detail and time management skills.
• The ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball calendar.

The Blue Jays see diversity and employment equity as foundational to creating a successful culture. Applicants who may not traditionally feel empowered to apply for a job in this field are strongly encouraged to apply. Please feel free to include any questions about the role with your application, or reach out to baseballresumes@bluejays.com.

Player Development Technology
In this role, candidates passionate about working directly with coaches and players will be embedded with teams at the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY). On a daily basis, you will be with your team as the point person for video, technology, and data resources. This may include helping to deploy and operate technology both in practice and game settings, organizing/cataloguing/reviewing video and data, helping to define and track player goals, and supporting longer-term R&D and Player Development projects. You will also assist with the logistical needs of the team (including Minor League Operations, Nutrition, and High Performance departments), as well as on-field activities (BP, fungos, catching pens). Fluency with Microsoft Office is required; experience with a range of baseball-related data capture systems (BATS, Portable Trackman, Rapsodo, Diamond Kinetics, etc.) would be helpful, as would experience with video editing and review software. Spanish proficiency is also helpful, and may be required in some cases.

Player Development Coaching
With roles at each of the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY), candidates interested in growing their careers in data-driven player development will support all functions of the team coaching staff. While helping players and coaches prepare for games on a nightly bases is a main focus, in this role you will have the ability to support and influence development goal setting and tracking, on-field practice design and implementation, and data tagging, organization, and review. In this role you will also support video and data capture in pre-game settings, documentation of action plans and other player updates, as well as supporting logistics related to player and coaching needs. Depending on the candidate, on-field duties (eg. coaching 1B, coaching/catching bullpens, etc.) may be part of semi-regular or regular duties. Experience with hands-on coaching of athletes is helpful but not required, as is experience with technical tools like SQL, R, or Python. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is a necessity, and Spanish proficiency may also be required in some cases.

Operations (Scouting, Baseball Operations, Player Development)
Candidates will use their excellent organizational skills and high attention to detail to support the logistical and administrative functioning of the scouting, player development, or baseball operations departments. This could include data entry and cleaning, assisting with the coordination and execution of player evaluation projects, maintaining and organizing video and data resources, and helping to stay on top of departmental administrative functions (expense reports, compiling statistics and rosters, meeting logistics, etc.). If supporting our Player Development department, you may be asked to help integrate technology into on-field work, administer player plans, translate documents to/from English and Spanish, and help with scheduling for players and staff. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office, particularly Excel, is important for this role; familiarity with baseball rules and regulations could be an asset, and Spanish proficiency may also be helpful (or required in some cases).

Advance Scouting
In this role, candidates will use their strong knowledge of the game of baseball to support our Major League team in game-by-game and series-by-series preparation. This could include a wide range of activities, such as collecting and organizing statistics for reports, conducting ad-hoc research and analysis on players or baseball generally, watching video to provide written evaluations and insights, and supporting on-field data and video collection. Strong time management and organizational skills are important, and skills with things like R, Shiny, and similar tools would be helpful plusses.

Research & Development
Candidates will use their analytical and programming skills to help identify and research baseball questions. This may include using data organization and cleaning, modelling/machine learning, visualization, and statistical techniques with tools such as R, Python, and SQL. Experience with advanced modelling techniques or other specialized skills (Computer Vision, Neural Networks, Bayesian Modeling, Anomaly Detection, Time Series etc.) would be beneficial, but not necessary. You may present work to a variety of audiences (fellow researchers, front office members, coaches, or players), and may use the results of research to contribute to player evaluations at key junctures. Additional duties may include providing logistical support to major events on the baseball calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.) and other general departmental support.

Baseball Systems Development
Candidates for this role will help to create, update, and support web applications and databases that are used throughout baseball operations; a moderate to high level of experience in computer science, web and/or database development, software engineering, or a related field is quite important. A portfolio of work showing your past experiences in these areas is also helpful. Duties may include working with end users to gather requirements, engineering systems to acquire and database new datasets, or doing front-end web design work on baseball information systems. You will have the opportunity to experience and provide logistical support to key points on the baseball calendar.

Biomechanics/Sports Science
Candidates for this role have a strong academic background in Biomechanics, Physics, Sports Science, or a related field and are passionate about applying their expertise to baseball. This could be in a research/data analysis focused capacity, a role that is more hands-on with players and other development and performance staff, or somewhere in the middle. In all cases, you would work closely with player development, R+D, and high performance staff to collaborate on research, contribute to player development goals, and support data capture and organization. You would be expected to individually stay on top of the latest research and resources in the field of biomechanics and sports science. Experience with statistical programming, modelling, and visualization tools is very helpful, but not required.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.

The history of the Seattle Mariners, as famously documented by Jon Bois and crew, is rife with bizarre, inexplicable, and downright hilarious episodes. But the most memorable of all, the one representative of the team’s scrappiness and tenacity, has to be The Double, Edgar Martinez’s famous hit in the bottom of the 11th that sent the Mariners to their first ever Championship Series in 1995, capitalized, given a Wikipedia article, and revered ever since.

The point is, the Mariners are no strangers to comebacks. They’ve been underdogs their entire existence; to them, surprise victories might as well be regular ones. A pinch-hit, walk-off home run from Cal Raleigh to clinch the team’s first playoff berth in two decades? Thrilling, yes, but just another day in the office. That pitted them against the Blue Jays, who before the series began were deemed favorites. But manager Scott Servais knew. “Expect the expected,” he said in an interview last Thursday, stressing the importance of preparation in an unfavorable situation.

At one point in Game 2, the Mariners were down 8–1. For the do-or-die Blue Jays, everything had gone according to plan; it looked like they would live to fight another day. Then the spirit of the Mariners awoke from its slumber. Ten combined runs later, the dust had settled. The final score: Seattle 10, Toronto 9. In the heat of the postseason, the Mariners authored another scorching come-from-behind win, with the Blue Jays their latest victim.

How innocuously it all began. With Kevin Gausman on the mound for the Blue Jays and Robbie Ray for the Mariners, we first got to enjoy some quality pitching. In the top of the first, Gausman struck out two batters and allowed only Raleigh to reach base on a walk (so did Ty France, but on a fielding error from Santiago Espinal). Moments later, Ray nabbed two swinging strikeouts and a groundout. So far, so peaceful. But in the bottom of the second, the game’s first cracks appeared, as Ray began leaking his pitches over the plate. Alejandro Kirk doubled, then Teoscar Hernández blasted a baseball to deep left field:

Ray managed to escape the inning without further harm, but that proved to be a mere respite. When he got back to work, Espinal led off with a double, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove him in with a single to center. And when Hernández hit another homer, this time to lead off the fourth, the Mariners had had enough. Matt Brash replaced Ray, who stopped just short of being outed as a double agent, and put out the fire.

But wait – it got even worse for the Mariners. It was Paul Sewald who was tasked with the fifth inning and beyond, which is odd considering they were down by four runs, but understandable when you realize their starter went just three innings. What happened next can only be described as ugly, bad, no-good baseball. This wasn’t a battle between Sewald and the Blue Jays. This was a battle between Sewald the Idea and Sewald the Man. The former is a lights-out reliever in perfect command of an advanced fastball and slider, concocted by Mariners pitching analysts in a lab buried in the depths of T-Mobile Park; the latter is a mere mortal who occasionally appears and has no idea where his pitches are going.

You can guess which version of Sewald the Mariners received on Saturday. The Blue Jays scored their fifth run on a passed ball with the bases loaded, then their sixth when Hernández bore the brunt of a hit by pitch. A sacrifice fly made it a seven run deficit for Seattle, and a double made it eight. When Diego Castillo entered the game to put Sewald out of his misery, Toronto’s chances of winning this pivotal game stood at 99.0%.

Ninety-nine percent.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s back up for a moment. While chaos ensued around him, Gausman was in the midst of an admirable performance. Sure, a single-double-sac fly sequence allowed one Mariner run to score, but he entered the sixth with seven strikeouts and a manageable pitch count. How did things go south from there? I’m glad you asked:

The honorary Frenchman hit a single, which under normal circumstances wouldn’t sound alarm bells. But it’s Gausman who’s on the mound, and he’s spent this season as the unluckiest pitcher around. To wit, his .363 BABIP allowed is the highest of any qualified starting pitcher post-integration, and that’s including the 60-game weirdness from 2020. Bloop hits and shallow line drives had driven Gausman to the ground all year long, and October was no exception. Following France’s lead, Eugenio Suárez hit his own single, as did Raleigh to load the bases with no outs. It indeed pours when it rains for Gausman, but he maintained his composure, striking out Mitch Haniger on six consecutive splitters and getting Adam Frazier to pop out.

The Blue Jays then went with Tim Mayza to face Carlos Santana, which sparked a bit of controversy. In a little over 2,000 career plate appearances facing lefties, Santana, a switch-hitter, has been notably better against them (125 wRC+) than righties (113 wRC+). Toronto must have had its reasons, but they were undone by a single swing:

Surprisingly, not much happened in the seventh. Mayza and Yimi Garcia combined to retire the side in order. A Danny Jansen single tacked on another run for Toronto, but the entire process, for once, resembled a functional baseball game. And while the Mariners had made a valiant effort, it still seemed like the Blue Jays had a clear path to victory. A four-run lead as the home team entering the top half of the eighth represents a 96.9% win probability, because teams realistically do not make up that large of a deficit in such a limited number of opportunities.

We’re now in the final chapter of this bazonkers game.

Anthony Bass is not some random reliever with a strike-throwing problem. He’s good! He had a 1.54 ERA this season. But, well, there are days when one allows consecutive hits without sporting any visible defects, and the Mariners simply made contact, tacking on a run and cutting their deficit to three. Because Bass failed to earn a single out, Jordan Romano came into the game earlier than expected, inheriting two baserunners. The Blue Jays’ closer started off by allowing another baserunner and potentially spelling disaster, but he recovered, striking out the next two batters. But the crisis wasn’t averted; it was merely delayed:

What a devastating minute for Toronto. While Bo Bichette got back to his feet, the collision resulted in George Springer exiting the game. More than allowing all three Mariners to score, though, the incident seemed to suck all the life out of the Rogers Centre. The game was tied, effectively halving the Blue Jays’ odds of survival, but they might as well have been zero. Despite Andrés Muñoz’s inability to find the zone, the top of Toronto’s somber and defeated order couldn’t muster a single run. Meanwhile, the Mariners immediately seized the moment: Raleigh doubled off Romano in the top of the ninth, as did Frazier to score the go-ahead run. George Kirby took the mound in the bottom half of the inning, ending the game on a fly ball that landed, rather fittingly, in the glove of Julio Rodríguez. Thus concluded one of the greatest comebacks in postseason baseball history. Chart, please:

The Double is the defining moment of Mariners history, but it might not have happened if not for a less-heralded yet equally enthralling rally. In Game 4 of the 1995 ALDS, the Mariners mounted a five-run comeback against the Yankees to force that decisive fifth game. For years, it stood as the largest postseason comeback win in franchise history – that is, until last night’s game. But in the context of a team on the ropes for half a century, it feels more like a progression of sorts than an upset. And it calls into question the definition of a comeback: Does it count as one if this is precisely how the Mariners grab onto success, however fleeting it may be?

In the days to follow, the emphasis could fall on the word “fleeting.” The Mariners will have to replicate their magic against the Astros, an even scarier squad than the Blue Jays, over the course a five-game series. They will enter the ring as not just the underdog, but to some, a mere stepping stone for a clearly superior team. As much as logic says to bet on Houston, however, we can’t count out the Mariners just yet. Not after their tumultuous history. Not after their multiple come-from-behind wins. And most of all, not after this game, in which they seemed inevitable.

If there were an ideal blueprint for the Mariners’ first playoff game since 2001, it would have included dominant pitching, good defense, and just enough offense to come away with a win. They executed that plan to perfection on Friday afternoon, defeating the Blue Jays, 4–0, in the first game of their Wild Card Series matchup. Luis Castillo was in complete control over his 7.1 innings pitched, folk hero Cal Raleigh hit a two-run home run in the first inning, and Andrés Muñoz slammed the door in the ninth.

The formidable Blue Jays offense never threatened to break through against Seattle’s flame-throwing duo, who scattered seven hits throughout the game; Toronto’s only extra-base hit came with two outs in the ninth inning. A pair of two-out base hits put runners on first and second in the third and again in the fifth, but Castillo escaped those jams with ease.

It was a bit of an atypical start for the right-hander, who struck out just five Blue Jays, three of them coming in the seventh inning. Toronto’s batters had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-lowest chase rate in the majors this year; they’re a difficult bunch to whiff. Instead of mowing down the opposition with swings and misses, Castillo pitched to the edges of the strike zone, content to let opposing batters reach for pitches. The result: tons of weak contact. He allowed 22 balls to be put in play with an average exit velocity of just 82.6 mph and only six registering as hard hit.

All that weak contact allowed Castillo to be efficient with his pitch count: He never threw more than 20 pitches in a single frame and cruised into the eighth inning. He ended up throwing 108 pitches in the game, 30% of which were called or swinging strikes. Plunking George Springer in a 1–2 count with one out in the eighth proved to be Castillo’s end, but Muñoz entered and retired Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. en route to a five-out save. His only blemish was a two-out double by Matt Chapman in the ninth. Read the rest of this entry »

While the postseason drought spanning more than two decades is over, so too is the celebration in Seattle, as the Mariners travel to the other side of the continent to face the slugging, battle-tested Blue Jays, who emerged from baseball’s best division as the top wild card.

Toronto’s lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, stacked with marquee names who have thirteen combined All Star appearances (George Springer has four of his own, Matt Chapman somehow only has one). The group had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball during the regular season, ranked third in slugging, and were second only to the Dodgers in team wRC+. Except for Raimel Tapia and Whit Merrifield, every member of the Blue Jays’ regular starting lineup posted a wRC+ over 100 on the season, and Merrifield closed the season on a .361/.385/.639 heater. If Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s hamstring is healed in time for him to be inserted in the lineup, he’s an easy offensive upgrade on Tapia, though he may not have his timing immediately due to his lack of at-bats.

While Toronto’s lineup has undeniable star power, it may have an unexpected fault at its core. While his season, overall, was very good, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ice cold right now. During the last month of the season he slashed a paltry .235/.290/.390 and struggled with plate discipline. Vladdy’s chase rate during September (40%) was a full ten percentage points higher than his career norm (31%), as he struggled to lay off sliders away from him and well off the plate. Two-pitch Robbie Ray should be a great matchup for Vlad, as he doesn’t have a secondary pitch that moves away from right-handed hitters aside from an unfamiliar changeup. But the Mariners have bullpen weapons that are well-suited to exploit his recent issues in Penn Murfee, Diego Castillo, and Matt Brash, who all have sliders that finish in a spot Guerrero can’t seem to get to right now. Streaky Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has been the polar opposite, second only to Aaron Judge in WAR since the calendar flipped to September, slashing .405/.443/.664 and clubbing 19 extra-base hits during that span and entering postseason play as one of the planet’s most dangerous hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The “shadow zone” is one of my favorite new bits of lingo from the Statcast era, and I’m sure I’m not alone. In actual fact, the term describes a pretty simple concept – the area in and around the edges of the strike zone – but it sounds more like a hidden world from Star Trek or Stranger Things. The title for a FanGraphs piece about the shadow zone practically writes itself.

But I’m not here to talk about sonically pleasing sports terminology. Sure, I like the shadow zone because it sounds like it’s from a straight-to-video B-movie, but I am just as partial to what happens within it. It’s an area of ambiguity around the strike zone’s edges. It’s where plate discipline matters most, where control matters most, where umpiring matters most, and, as I’d like to focus on today, where pitch framing matters most.

Pitch framing takes place almost exclusively around the borders of the zone. Every so often a catcher successfully frames a pitch from beyond the shadows (a potential sequel to The Shadow Zone), but at that point, it’s just as much about bad umpiring as it is about good framing. Read the rest of this entry »

This is Esteban’s first piece as a FanGraphs contributor. Esteban is a baseball fanatic. While his Yankees fandom may be a disappointment to some, it’s the reason he became obsessed with the game we all love. His perspective is heavily influenced by his time as a player, but his passion lies in linking mechanics with data. Esteban’s previous work can be found at Pinstripe Alley. He’s New York born and raised and will probably let you know once or twice more.

Over the last few weeks, Bo Bichette has been the catalyst for the Toronto Blue Jays as they have battled for the top American League Wild Card spot. If you exclude Aaron Judge’s historic bashing of baseballs, no one else in the month of September has hit like Bichette, who has outpaced everybody except the Yankee outfielder to the tune of a 229 wRC+. Not too shabby!

Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus did a great job covering Bichette’s breakout through a statistical lens. The main point of focus from Orr was Bichette’s willingness and ability to spray the opposite field gap. Bichette got away from that for most of this season, but his mechanical adjustments have got him back to being the best version of himself and embracing the opposite field laser.

His style of hitting is unique. Depending on your preferred flavor of hitting, you may have mixed feelings about his swing and the movement he generates in it. But whatever your preference, there is no denying his performance. Those movements, which make him appear as if he is swinging as hard as he can, are exactly how he can produce so much power despite being slightly undersized compared to the average major leaguer.

For Bichette, it’s all about how he uses his lower half to interact with the ground. At his size, it takes efficient movement up and down the kinetic chain to produce power on a variety of pitches and in a variety of locations. He doesn’t have the natural strength for a low effort swing that still produces bat speeds north of 75 mph. His stance, load, and entry to and through the hitting zone need to be consistent. That will be the focus here: how Bichette has cleaned up the interaction between the ground and the balance in his lower half and hips to create more plate coverage in his bat path. Let’s start with a comparison. The first swing here is from mid-July, while the second is from late August. I prefer to start with normal-speed video to see if it’s possible to read the swing at the same speed as the players on the field, mainly the pitcher and the catcher:

The thing that immediately stands out to me is that Bichette is staying too far over his back half. As he makes contact, pay attention to the direction of his reciprocal movement after hitting the ball. (By reciprocal movement, I mean the response his body makes to rotating and making contact.) While it’s very subtle, you can see his torso face the sky as he finishes his swing, especially in the first GIF. This takes away space in his bat path to hit the bottom of the ball with force at different depths (front to back of the plate) of the strike zone.

Picture the barrel entering the back of the strike zone with a slight loft, but instead of keeping that loft as it moves to the front of the plate, it begins to move vertically to the top of the zone. This cuts off the barrel from moving in front of the plate at an ideal vertical bat angle, thus taking a key part of the hitting zone (in front of the plate) away from Bichette. That’s why you see choppy groundballs rather than line drives. The second swing above is slightly improved. That tracks, as it came much closer to his breakout in September where he fully perfected the scissor kick and lower half balance. Let’s look at three swings during said breakout that best portray the adjustment:

Much, much better. His swing and setup against Shane McClanahan’s running fastball prove he understands he needs to keep his hips closed as long as possible to stay on this pitch. Rotational athletes need to keep their center of mass in a position where they avoid getting pushy in their rotation; pushy rotators will do what Bichette did earlier this summer. They get stuck in their posterior and push out of their lower half with their back foot/leg, leading to their shoulder and chest facing the sky too soon in the swing. Think about it like this. Baseball players, both hitters and pitchers, want to stay in between their back foot and front foot throughout their rotation. If you get pushy, your head (center of mass) will drift forward and disrupt your swing path. Bichette has done a phenomenal job of improving his rotational direction. How exactly has he done this? That’s where the slow motion video comes into play. To the tape!

Please turn your attention to Bo’s back foot. In the first clip from July, where he hit a grounder through the hole, you can see his back foot move straight back towards the umpire as he rotates. This is what folks call squishing the bug. In the second clip, that back foot is almost completely hidden throughout the rotation by the front leg. The movement of the back leg towards the left side of the batter’s box is known as a scissor kick. Leading up to contact, Bichette is transferring energy in a different direction than he did in July to keep his center of mass where it needs to be. The scissor kick stores the energy in his hips and makes his rotation move up through his spine, as opposed to squishing the bug, where a hitter digs a hole in the ground, creating more spin in the leg (less efficient). This is no longer a pushy swing:

I bet you had to watch this a few times to believe it really happened. By the looks of it, Bichette is fooled and doesn’t have a chance to barrel up this pitch. But instead of drifting forward upon being fooled by the pitch’s spin, he maintains his hip hinge and creates a bigger stretch in his upper half. That is special movement. This angle gives you a better idea of how he did it:

Even as Bichette’s hips clearly commit to swinging, he is able to keep his upper half waiting to unload. As his front leg nears full extension, it stores potential energy and allows him to have a delayed trigger. I must remind you that this pitch was low and away off the plate. Bichette is one of those special hitters who pulls slow, outside pitches for home runs.

The scissor kick is the main movement that puts him in a position to pull a pitch in this location. Think about it like this. If you set up in the batter’s box to hit and align your feet parallel to the opposite diagonal line on the plate instead of the vertical straight lines, it’s as if you’ve changed where center field is. As a hitter scissor kicks, that’s exactly what happens. Their hips are in a better position to pull outside pitches, because it’s more like hitting a pitch straight up the middle, based on the direction the hitter’s hips are facing. It’s not an easy movement by any means, since you still need to be able to pull inside pitches in this position. That’s exactly why you mostly see it from the elite class of hitters who can cover a large portion of the plate.

Almost every legitimate hot streak or breakout can be described through video storytelling. Subtle changes in movement patterns can pay huge dividends for players, just like they have for Bo Bichette. He was an above-average hitter all season, but by cleaning up his lower half, he has climbed back to near the top of the shortstop WAR leaderboard and is on his way to another five-win season.

This morning, on your way to your local coffee shop or the train station, you probably passed two guys writhing around on the sidewalk, one screaming “Aaron Judge!” while trying to wrap up his counterpart in a figure-four leg lock; the other, attempting valiantly to squirm out of his predicament and refusing to tap out, shouting “Shohei Ohtani!”

Such is the nature of this year’s AL MVP discourse, the most spirited awards debate since the halcyon days of Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera a decade ago. And that’s appropriate — these are two of the most recognizable names in the sport, both accomplishing things we only see once every few decades, and both doing it in major markets. (I’m framing it this way on purpose in order to provoke a second argument: Is Anaheim really part of the Greater Los Angeles area, or is it something else?)

But they name three MVP finalists, not two, which leaves us a little less than two months from a hilarious television moment: Judge and Ohtani, on MLB Network, awaiting the results of this contentious election while the host runs down the credentials of some joker with no shot at all of taking home the hardware.

So who should that joker be? Read the rest of this entry »