In the first of a six-part series — one piece for each division — I’ll be highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the American League East.

Baltimore Orioles | Depth Chart | Payroll

Mark Trumbo, DH/1B

Trumbo’s expected departure is only notable because it marks the end of a disastrous three-year run that resulted in an 87 wRC+ and 40 homers in 248 games at a total cost of $37.5 million. In his debut season with Orioles in 2016, he had a 125 wRC+ with 47 homers, which led to the contract extension. The particular role Trumbo was supposed to fill, primarily as a designated hitter who could occasionally fill in at first base and the corner outfield spots, now belongs to 25-year-old Renato Nuñez, who will make slightly above the minimum salary next season, is under contract through 2025, and had a 99 wRC+ with 31 homers in his first full big league season.

Total WAR: -0.3

Boston Red Sox | Depth Chart | Payroll

Rick Porcello, SP
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 31
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 2 years, $18M

Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi combined to make 59 starts in 2019 and there’s not much reason to believe that any of them are likely to give the Red Sox anywhere near 30 starts or 180 innings in 2020. That’s why the potential loss of Porcello, who has made at least 31 starts in eight of his 11 seasons and has never had less than 27, could be a major blow to a team with limited starting pitching depth behind Eduardo Rodriguez and the aforementioned trio.

Badly in need of an innings-eater, it’s possible that the best fit for the Red Sox rotation in 2020 is Porcello, even if he’s nowhere near the pitcher he was when he won the AL Cy Young award in 2016. But even if they cut his 2019 salary of $21.25 million by more than half — Kiley predicted a two-year, $18 million contract for Porcello in our Top 50 Free Agents — Boston is attempting to shed payroll and might be looking for much cheaper options.

Brock Holt, INF/OF
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 33
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 2 years, $15M

After a 1-for-16 start to the season followed by a six-week stint on the Injured List, Holt returned to slash .313/.380/.424 in his final 276 plate appearances while making starts at six different positions. The 31-year-old should be rewarded by a team that can offer him more playing time, which could open the door for Tzu-Wei Lin or one of a handful of prospects, including Chad De La Guerra and C.J. Chatham, to become the team’s next super-utilityman.

Mitch Moreland, 1B

Coming off one of his most productive season at the plate, the 34-year-old Moreland’s price tag could still be less than the two-year, $13 million deal that just expired. Still, the Red Sox have bigger voids to fill than at first base. Some combination of Michael Chavis and possibly an inexpensive veteran — think Yonder Alonso or Logan Morrison — could do the job, with prospect Bobby Dalbec, who slashed .239/.356/.460 with 27 homers between Triple-A and Double-A in 2019, a possibility to help out later in the season.

Andrew Cashner, SP/RP

Since an impressive performance as a relief pitcher with the Padres way back in 2012, Cashner worked almost exclusively as a starter over the next six-and-a-half years. He was very good at times, but was also very bad at others, leading at least some people — well, mostly me — to wonder whether it was time to move him back to the bullpen. That time finally came after he posted an 8.01 ERA and 6.81 FIP in six starts after being acquired from the Orioles in July. Excluding his final appearance of the season, which was disastrous, Cashner had a 2.38 ERA and 3.52 FIP out of the ‘pen with four holds and a save while limiting opponents to a .160 batting average over 22 and two-thirds innings.

It’s unclear what kind of market Cashner would have as a reliever, or if there are still teams interested in him as a starting pitcher, but a return to Boston as a setup man to Brandon Workman could be a nice fit for the 33-year-old.

Total WAR: 3.7

New York Yankees | Depth Chart | Payroll

Didi Gregorius, SS
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 10
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 3 years, $48M

With Gregorius out of the picture, Gleyber Torres could move to shortstop, DJ LeMahieu could get most of his starts at second base, and the corner infield spots should be covered by some combination of Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Mike Ford, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. It really could be as simple as that.

That doesn’t mean the 29-year-old Gregorius, who was 20th in AL MVP voting in 2017 and 2018, is on his way out. The Yankees don’t have many holes to fill. If they prioritize keeping Gregorius, there’s a good chance he’ll stay put. But the fact that they didn’t give him a qualifying offer, making him much more valuable on the open market, probably means that they’re ready to move on and will focus their offseason efforts elsewhere, possibly in the starting pitching market.

Brett Gardner, OF
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 21
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 1 year, $13M

When Gardner re-signed with the Yankees for the 2019 season, it appeared that his days as a starting outfielder were behind him. Coming off one of his least productive seasons, he was set to fill a part-time role behind Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A year later, things have changed substantially.

The 36-year-old Gardner just had what was one of his best offensive seasons as a major leaguer. He could still be very valuable to the Yankees, who will be without Hicks for at least half of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. If they fail to re-sign Gardner without making a competitive offer, it’s a sign that they believe Mike Tauchman’s breakout season (128 wRC+, 13 HR in 296 plate appearances) wasn’t a fluke and that he’s ready to be penciled in as their Opening Day center fielder.

Edwin Encarnación, DH/1B
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 25
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 1 year, $11M

After a season in which nearly every position player in the Bronx missed time due to an injury, the Yankees might be better off rotating their lineup regulars in and out of the designated hitter spot to keep them well-rested and healthy. Or they could use it early in the season to ease Andujar back into action as he returns from rotator cuff surgery. In either case, Encarnación’s time with the Yankees is likely over even if he still has a lot left in the tank as he enters his age-37 season.

Dellin Betances, RP
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 22
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 1 year, $12M

Betances didn’t make his 2019 debut until September 15, striking out both batters he faced before he was shut down for with a partially torn Achilles’ tendon. The Yankees’ bullpen was still very good without him. Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino both posted sub-2.00 ERAs and Tommy Kahnle bounced back from a disappointing 2018.

The 31-year-old, who had over 15.0 K/9 in three consecutive seasons prior to 2019, could pursue both a multi-year deal and an opportunity to be another team’s closer. But if other teams aren’t willing to offer either of those because of health concerns, he could opt to stay with the Yankees and rebuild his value on a one-year deal in hopes of a big payday next winter. If the Yankees are unwilling to spend much more on their bullpen — Aroldis Chapman, Britton, and Ottavino will make a combined $38 million in 2020 — they could move one of their young starting pitchers to relief. Jonathan Loaisiga or Deivi Garcia would be options.

Cameron Maybin, OF

Like Gardner and Tauchman, the 2019 Yankees brought out the best in the 32-year-old Maybin. After having to settle for a minor league contract last offseason, he’s all but certain to land a major league deal this time around after slashing .285/364/.494 with 11 homers in 269 plate appearances on team that won 103 games.

Total WAR: 7.0

Tampa Bay Rays | Depth Chart | Payroll

Eric Sogard, INF/OF
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 39
Kiley McDaniel contract projection: 1 year, $6M

Acquired in July to help pick up the slack with several key players banged up, Sogard had injury troubles of his own late in the season and was shut down in mid-September. He did return for the post-season, making one start and homering against Gerrit Cole. With a deep Rays team expected to return to full health, the 33-year-old Sogard probably won’t be back. Finding a major league deal shouldn’t be a problem, though, after he finished the season with a .290/.353/.457 slash line in 442 plate appearances while making starts at five different positions.

Avisaíl García, OF
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 30
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 1 year, $10M

With three starting outfielders who don’t figure to sit much in 2020 and Guillermo Heredia in line to be the defensive replacement off the bench, García will likely look elsewhere to cash in on a strong bounce-back season. At age 28, he’s one of the youngest free agents on the market.

Travis d’Arnaud, C/1B
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 27
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 2 years, $14M

d’Arnaud was acquired from the Dodgers to help fill the void shortly after Mike Zunino went on the Injured List with a strained quad in early May. By the end of August, he was the primary catcher on a Rays team that was headed for a 96-win season and a playoff appearance. He also made 16 starts at first base because the Rays didn’t want his bat out of the lineup when he wasn’t catching. After Zunino’s offensive production dipped drastically for the second consecutive year, the Rays could bring back the 30-year-old d’Arnaud to pair with him once again. Or they could make room to re-sign him by non-tendering Zunino, who is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Total WAR: 4.1

Toronto Blue Jays | Depth Chart | Payroll

Clay Buchholz/Clayton Richard, SP

To fill their rotation needs in 2019, the Blue Jays took a chance on a pair of oft-injured right-handers, Buchholz and Matt Shoemaker, as well as veteran lefty Richard, who made 59 starts over the previous two seasons. While Shoemaker pitched brilliantly out of the gate, he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his fifth start while the other two battled injuries throughout the season and combined for only 22 mostly mediocre starts.

In the same boat a year later, looking for veteran starting pitchers that can help bridge the gap to the team’s young pitching prospects, Toronto moved quickly to acquire Chase Anderson in a trade with the Brewers and will likely add at least one more starter who is a safer bet than any of last year’s additions.

Total WAR: -0.1

Yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays added former Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Chase Anderson to their pitching rotation in exchange for first base prospect Chad Spanberger. Anderson, who had an $8.5 million dollar club option for 2020, was not a compelling choice for the Brewers given how steeply his performance dropped off after his standout 2017 campaign.

The Blue Jays get a middle-to-back of the rotation pitcher who started at least 25 games and pitched more than 141 innings through four seasons in Milwaukee, and struck out at least 105 batters in each of his six seasons in the majors. Despite not being able to replicate his performance from two seasons ago, Anderson was able to triple his pedestrian 0.3 WAR in 2018, posting 1.2 WAR in 2019 with an ERA and FIP in the fours. While the National League Central is no slouch, the American League East will produce a much stiffer level of competition for Anderson, who will need one of his best pitches from 2019 if he wishes to improve in 2020.

Last season, Anderson used his cutter more than he had in his previous five, throwing it harder than he ever had. It was his most improved pitch in 2019 and a very handy one at that. He cut his wOBA on the cutter by 100 points while drawing more swings out of the zone. Anderson also saw an increase in his cutter swinging-strike rate, and his contact in the zone went down:

Anderson’s cutter is more of a complementary pitch, meaning it’s not an out pitch and he doesn’t necessarily throw it when he needs strikes. He mixes it well with his four-seam fastball to left-handed hitters in almost every count, with two-strike counts the exception, while to righties, Anderson typically goes four-seamer heavy (at least 50% across all counts) with his cutter usage is divvied up with the changeup and curve.

Of pitchers who threw a cutter at least 14% of the time (minimum 110 IP), Anderson’s was rated second-best in 2019:

Pitch Info valued the pitch at -1.1 in 2018 and he was able to increase its effectiveness to a 1.7 last season.

Here’s a glance at Anderson’s cutter metrics and pitch action:

So what’s behind the significant improvement this year? Anderson made no adjustments to the cutter’s spin axis, his grip, or arm slot. The extra velocity with a slightly elevated spin rate, from 2340 in 2018 to 2382 in 2019, helped add an additional two inches of ‘rise’ to the pitch.

The two pitches Anderson paired with his cutter the most were the changeup to left-handed hitters and his four-seamer to righties. The changeup to cutter sequence creates a pretty decent tunnel, as seen in the GIF below.

Given that the velocity spread between the four-seamer and cutter was only around 4 mph, it wasn’t an ideal combination and likely didn’t do much to boost the cutter’s effectiveness.

Anderson’s cutter isn’t dominant but it’s a valuable asset in his arsenal. It helps pick up the slack on his changeup and curveball, and can create a nice pitch-shape change when subbed in for his fastball. Anderson is moving to a division that hit the cutter with essentially the same success (.313 wOBA) as the NL Central (.319 wOBA) did in 2019, so it’s reasonable to think the pitch can still be effective so long as he uses it the same way next season as he did in Milwaukee.

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions. All positions are paid.

The Toronto Blue Jays are seeking highly motivated and creative interns to assist with day-to-day tasks within various areas of their broader Baseball and High Performance operations. The start and end dates are flexible depending on candidate availability and both full-season and partial-season candidates will be considered. This position will be based in Toronto, ON or Dunedin, FL. There are several different internship focuses (in the areas of Research and Development, Scouting, Player Development, Biomechanics & Computer Vision, and Baseball Systems Development), with more detail on each position provided below. Across all internships, the Blue Jays are seeking:

• Demonstrated passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals including members of the front office, field staff and scouts. Ability to speak Spanish is a strong plus.
• Baseball/softball playing background or related work experience with a pro/college team is a strong plus, although not required.
• Demonstrated ability to work independently and self-direct work.
• The ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball calendar.

For each application, please send a resume and cover letter to baseballresumes@bluejays.com. Please provide the position to which you are applying at the subject line, and include answers to the below question as well as the targeted question for each position in the body of your email. All answers should be limited to one paragraph:

• Please describe a group project you have completed in a professional, educational, or other capacity. What was the goal, and who were you working with? How did your team progress, and what obstacles did you encounter?

Position: Research & Development Intern

Scope:

• Assist the Research & Development Department with baseball research as well as developing new metrics and tools to help with Baseball Operation decision making.
• Improve current production models and utilize novel modeling techniques to make better use of available and future data sets
• Challenge our current way thinking and provide input on both short-term and long-term projects.
• Contribute to ad hoc analysis of Amateur, Major, and Minor League Players
• Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

• Proficiency with R, Python or other similar mathematical language
• Proficiency with SQL and relational databases
• Demonstrated ability to design and execute baseball research projects is a plus
• Experience with advanced modeling methods, including generalized linear models, mixed models, clustering, or other forms of machine learning is a plus. Experience evaluating and selecting models is also a plus

Question:
What is one question about baseball that you would like to answer, given the time and datasets necessary? What techniques might you employ to answer this question? What obstacles do you foresee?

Position: Scouting Intern

Scope:

• Assist the Amateur Scouting Department with the preparation for the Rule 4 Draft, including assistance with player evaluation, information processing, and staying abreast of the current amateur landscape.
• Support the Pro Scouting Department with periodic coverage related tasks and daily tasks, including maintaining lists of opposing team prospects, providing information on opposing team needs and having an understanding of ML player trends
• Provide support for Baseball Operations meetings and player transaction decisions.
• Support Minor League Operations/Player Development with their daily operations, such as processing expense reports, updating team rosters, compiling statistics and scouting reports, etc.
• Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

• Knowledge of and passion for baseball operations processes
• Experience with in-person and/or video scouting is a plus
• Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is required. Further technical skills (SQL, R, etc.) are a plus but not required.

Question:
What do you see as a current inefficiency with the way in which baseball is run? Is there any opportunity for teams in this area, and if so, how would you take advantage?

Position: Player Development Intern

Scope:

• Assist Player Development team and coaching staffs with data entry of game reports, player plan administration, and organizational projects.
• Collaborate with Player Development & High Performance staffs to optimize processes across the organization.
• Provide logistical support for Minor League Spring Training and off-season programs as it relates to scheduling, workflow, travel, baseball-related activities, etc.
• Support Research & Development staff with ad hoc analysis and the continual improvement of the tools and metrics that we provide to assist Player Development & High Performance.
• Assist on-field staff with incorporating new technologies and data into development plans.

Requirements:

• Strong administrative skills to understand the various processes required by each department and ensure that they are followed.
• Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is required. Further technical skills (SQL, R, etc.) are a plus but not required.

Questions:

• How can teams separate themselves through player development?
• Are there any specific examples of processes that organizations have currently implemented that would allow a team to best assist players and staff?
• What are two impactful ideas that you think would take the Toronto Blue Jays Player Development team to the next level?

Position: Baseball Systems Development Intern

Scope:

• Create new and/or support existing baseball systems through data visualization, display, and web application development
• Support Data Engineering team in the acquisition, ingestion, and cleaning of new and existing data sources
• Communicate with end users to gather system requirements and work through bug fixes
• Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

• Enrollment in or completion of a degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or similar field is preferred
• Experience with both front and back-end development is preferred
• Examples of data-oriented web development work is preferred

Question:
Please describe a web development or data-oriented project you have worked on (does not need to be baseball related; links to demo or source code welcomed). What did you learn while completing this project? How could you foresee applying these skills in a baseball capacity?

Position: Biomechanical Analysis & Computer Vision Intern

Scope:

• Contribute to internal research of baseball movements by collaborating with Baseball Operations, Player Development, and High Performance teams.
• Coordinate and collaborate with on-field staff on the collection of data
• Utilize cutting-edge modelling techniques (OpenCV, RANSAC, CNNs, etc) to provide insights from video resources
• Analyze a variety of biomechanical and related baseball information streams. Responsibilities include, but are not limited to, ensuring data quality, providing meaningful takeaways, and developing best practices.
• Clearly and concisely communicate results through both written reports and data visualization
• Research and present on new technologies and methods to push our computer vision and/or biomechanics programs forward

Requirements:

• Enrollment in or completion of a degree program in Biomechanics, Physics, Computer Science or a similarly relevant field is required.
• Proficiency with R, Python or other similar mathematical language
• Proficiency with SQL and relational databases
• Experience with frameworks such as Tensorflow or PyTorch is a plus
• Experience working with large spatial and biomechanical datasets
• Experience and passion for working with markerless motion capture systems is strongly preferred

Question:
Please describe a baseball question you’d like to answer. What methodologies would you use to try answer this question?

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Position: Amateur Scouting Video Coordinator

Location: TBD, United States

Please note: This position is based in the United States and the successful applicant must be legally entitled to work in the United States.

Primary Focus:
Assist the Director of Amateur Scouting and other amateur scouting staff members and front office with preparation for the MLB draft, particularly in the areas of video and technology. Collaborate with all members of the amateur scouting department with a focus on professional development and cultivating strong scouting abilities.

Scouting Responsibilities and Duties:

• Lead video and other data collection efforts by traveling to amateur and international events, maintaining constant communication with various Baseball Operations staff members for the purpose of collecting, editing and uploading prospect video.
• Write scouting reports on amateur, professional, and international players as directed, maintaining pref lists for current and/or future eligible players.
• Provide technical support to all scouting personnel as it relates to capturing, uploading and downloading video.
• Chart baseball games as required at special events – showcases, international workouts, etc.
• Assist scouts with other ad-hoc data collection requirements as needed
• Complete special projects as assigned by the Amateur Scouting and/or Baseball Operations leadership teams.
• Proactively seek out innovative methods to improve video organization, data collection, and other departmental processes.
• Attend regional and full-staff scouting meetings as required.
• Provide professional scouting coverage during the summer as assigned by the Pro Scouting Department.

Experience and Job Requirements:

• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players and coaches.
• Ability to operate a video camera and navigate through iOS and Windows operating systems.
• Deep passion for baseball with a willingness to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required.
• Willing to travel frequently and for extended periods of time as dictated by the baseball calendar.
• Baseball playing and/or scouting background is preferred, although not required.
• Previous experience with video cameras and video editing software is preferred.
• Previous experience with high-speed video technology, portable radar technology, and other baseball data acquisition systems is preferred.
• Relocation within the Continental US may be required.
• A valid Driver’s license is required.
• Legally able to work in the United States.

To Apply:
Please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.

The retooling of the Toronto Blue Jays hasn’t gone quite as planned. While the team won’t say so in such explicit terms, I believe that the original plan was to keep the basic core of the team together just long enough that reinforcements would arrive and save the team from a more painful long-term rebuild. Toronto’s stable of All-Star relatives has started to arrive — possibly the most impressive such group in baseball history — but the MLB roster is in a worse state than I imagine the team had hoped.

The Setup

The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays could point to a run of bad luck as the possible culprit for dropping from 89 to 76 wins, but the 2018 Blue Jays probably ought to have let go of those hopes. The post-2018 offseason didn’t feature much that would change the trajectory of the team, and the transactions were consistent with a plan of trying to simply stay relevant before players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio started hitting the major leagues. Moves were made but generally featured the supporting cast. In a perfect world, a healthy Matt Shoemaker and the resurgent Clay Buchholz could fill out the rotation, making up for the losses of J.A. Happ by trade and Marco Estrada by decline and then free agency. The thin bullpen that finished 21st in ERA and 23rd in WAR in 2018 before losing its top two pitchers by WAR, Seunghwan Oh and Tyler Clippard, could hopefully be buttressed with veteran free agents Bud Norris, David Phelps, Daniel Hudson, and John Axford.

As the team attempted to keep a skeleton crew together, the need to simultaneously add minor-league talent was obvious. The Jays traded off some of the players that were perceived to be surplus talent in an attempt to add to the team’s depth. Russell Martin could be replaced by Danny Jansen, Aledmys Diaz didn’t bring much that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Richard Urena couldn’t, and Kendrys Morales’s 2018 production could be replicated by Rowdy Tellez.

With just enough luck, the winter pickups would be enough when combined with the existing core (Marcus Stroman, Justin Smoak, Aaron Sanchez, Ken Giles, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk) to make the Blue Jays a .500 team, or even a skosh better. Then the fun would start. The Jays later made the public argument that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was not one of the best 25 players in the organization, but I don’t imagine that a single person that heard that either believed it or even thought that Toronto actually believed it. Vladito and Bichette would be the latest on baseball’s list of exciting phenoms starring quickly in the majors (with more on the way!) and help get the Blue Jays to at least the mid-80s in wins. And in a bifurcated American League, with a few great teams and several that looked like spring training B-squads, that might be enough to make a serious playoff run. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Madison Bumgarner, Emilio Pagan, and Jacob Waguespack— on how they learned and developed their cutter/sliders.

———

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

“I pretty much find myself saying ‘cutter-slider,’ just so there’s no confusion. I originally wanted to call it a slider, but it ended up with most people calling it a cutter. Movement-wise… in relation to my fastball it’s kind of like the speed of a cutter, but it moves a little more like a slider. Sometimes it will be a little shorter, though.

“I started throwing it 2010. I’d just got sent down from spring training and there was a guy named Horacio Ramirez, a left-hander from Mexico. He was there. He was an older guy who knew how to pitch, and he threw a cutter. I didn’t really have any off-speed pitches at that time; I basically didn’t throw anything all through the minor leagues, and then … I threw an actual slider, but it was no good at all. When I got to the big leagues in 2009 I threw it some, but it wasn’t no good. Read the rest of this entry »

September call-ups, both high-profile and totally innocuous, have been trickling in over the transaction wire for the last several days. As always, there are some who will have real impact on the playoff race and some who are interesting for the purposes of player evaluation, like your usual spare lefty reliever and catcher (by far the most common types of September additions). Some teams with no new names at all. Below I’ve compiled notes on every player brought up by an American League team since the start of the month, no matter how inconsequential; I’ve slipped some rehabbers and August 31 acquisitions in here, too. It’s a primer for you to get (re)acquainted with players who might impact the playoff race or the seasons to come. (The National League’s complement can be found here.)

Contenders’ Reinforcements

Houston Astros– OF Kyle Tucker, C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Josh James, RHP Jose Urquidy

Kiley and I have Tucker projected as an above-average regular, ranked 15th overall among prospects in baseball. I have no idea what kind of playing time he might get this month. Stubbs (24th in the org) has begun playing a little bit of second base and outfield. A part time, multi-positional role might help keep his tiny frame from breaking down, and enable Houston to get his long-performing bat in the lineup, as well as create flexibility on other parts of the roster.

James was 94-97 in rehab outings before he returned, then reached 99 on Monday. Urquidy projects as a strike-throwing fifth starter.

New York Yankees– OF Clint Frazier, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Ryan Dull, RHP Chance Adams, LHP Tyler Lyons, INF Brenny Escanio (prospect)

I think it’s likely Frazier, who many scouts/teams continue to think has everyday ability, gets traded this offseason, both because he’s part of a crowded outfield/DH mix and because he and the org don’t seem to be a great fit. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 Arizona Fall League rosters were (mostly) announced today, and we’ve created a tab on THE BOARD where you can see all the prospects headed for extra reps in the desert. These are not comprehensive Fall League rosters — you can find those on the AFL team pages — but a compilation of names of players who are already on team pages on THE BOARD. The default view of the page has players hard-ranked through the 40+ FV tier. The 40s and below are then ordered by position, with pitchers in each tier listed from most likely to least likely to start. In the 40 FV tier, everyone south of Alex Lange is already a reliever.

Many participating players, especially pitchers, have yet to be announced. As applicable prospects are added to rosters in the coming weeks, I’ll add them to the Fall League tab and tweet an update from the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account. Additionally, this tab will be live throughout the Fall League and subject to changes (new tool grades, updated scouting reports, new video, etc.) that will be relevant for this offseason’s team prospect lists. We plan on shutting down player/list updates around the time minor league playoffs are complete (which is very soon) until we begin to publish 2020 team-by-team prospect lists, but the Fall League tab will be an exception. If a player currently on the list looks appreciably different to me in the AFL, I’ll update their scouting record on that tab, and I may add players I think we’re light on as I see them. Again, updates will be posted on the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account, and I’ll also compile those changes in a weekly rundown similar to those we ran on Fridays during the summer.

Anything you’d want to know about individual players in this year’s crop of Fall Leaguers can probably be found over on THE BOARD right now. Below are some roster highlights as well as my thoughts on who might fill out the roster ranks.

Glendale Desert Dogs
The White Sox have an unannounced outfield spot on the roster that I think may eventually be used on OF Micker Adolfo, who played rehab games in Arizona late in the summer. He’s on his way back from multiple elbow surgeries. Rehabbing double Achilles rupturee Jake Burger is age-appropriate for the Fall League, but GM Rick Hahn mentioned in July that Burger might go to instructs instead. Sox instructs runs from September 21 to October 5, so perhaps he’ll be a mid-AFL add if that goes well and they want to get him more at-bats, even just as a DH. Non-BOARD prospects to watch on this roster include Reds righties Diomar Lopez (potential reliever, up to 95) and Jordan Johnson, who briefly looked like a No. 4 or 5 starter type during his tenure with San Francisco, but has been hurt a lot since, as have Brewers lefties Nathan Kirby (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome) and Quintin Torres-Costa (Tommy John). Dodgers righty Marshall Kasowski has long posted strong strikeout rates, but the eyeball scouts think he’s on the 40-man fringe. Read the rest of this entry »

Guillermo Martínez is 34 years old, last played pro ball eight years ago for the independent Grand Prairie (now Texas) AirHogs, and never made it above High-A in affiliated ball. He is also the rookie major league hitting coach for the Toronto Blue Jays. There’s a long history of men who never achieved much in their playing careers becoming outstanding in second acts as coaches, and in his responsibility for the offensive success of Toronto’s much-vaunted youth movement (the average age of their hitters, 26.2, is the youngest in the American League), Martínez has more than enough raw material to make his mark in his first season in the role.

Last week when the Blue Jays came to Seattle to take on the Mariners (dropping two out of three), I sat down with Martínez to talk about his first year of coaching in the majors, and in particular his first year of coaching another, much more famous, rookie: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After making his debut for Toronto late in April at the precocious age of 20, Guerrero has had an up-and-down — or, more accurately, a down-and-then-up — season for a middling Toronto club that is nonetheless understandably optimistic about the cohort of young hitters of which Guerrero is a part. First, the down: Through the end of June, across 226 big-league plate appearances, Guerrero had posted a wOBA of just .317, and — even more worryingly — was striking out far more (19% of the time) and walking less often (9% of the time) than at any previous level.

Some regression was to be expected, of course, upon facing big-league pitching for the first time. But it wasn’t just that the results that were underwhelming. It was that they matched up with the story told by the eyes. Read the rest of this entry »

For a losing team, the Cincinnati Reds have been busy. It’s not just trading players either, as Cincinnati made one of the biggest deadline moves while many contenders slumbered in near-stasis, picking up Trevor Bauer with an eye towards retooling for the 2020 season. Only three of the eight players in Wednesday’s lineup were also in the lineup on Opening Day: Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suárez, and José Iglesias. Chief among the new additions is the recently called-up Aristides Aquino, a big slugger lurking far back from the head of the team prospect lists coming into the season. After a fairly unimpressive minor league career, Aquino has feasted on the major league bouncy ball in 2019, slugging 28 homers in 294 AB in the formerly pitcher-friendly International League and then a shocking 11 homers in just 20 major league games.

Aquino was not some elite prospect finally being called up. The Reds have only received the benefit of getting a look at Aquino because they decided to use their ABs in a now-lost season in a productive way. If the team hadn’t dropped Matt Kemp or traded Yasiel Puig, choosing to go with the known quantity in a mistaken attempt to goose attendance (there’s no evidence this actually works), there wouldn’t have been as many opportunities to assess Aquino or Josh VanMeter or Phil Ervin in the majors. They now have more information on these players — how they’ve played at the big league level — and that information can have a positive effect on the decisions they make on how to win the NL Central or a wild card spot in 2020. Even picking up veteran Freddy Galvis, a 2.0 WAR player, for free has a value to a team like the Reds given his one-year, $5-million option for 2020. Scooter Gennett was always likely to be gone, but Galvis may not be, and now the Reds have another player who they can choose to start in 2020 or trade over the winter.

The Reds have been fortunate in these decisions, but I would have been in favor of this calculus even if Aquino/VanMeter/Ervin had been terrible. My fundamental belief is that among hitters and pitchers, teams have roughly a combined 12,000 plate appearances/batters faced to work with every year, and as many of them should be devoted to trying to win games as possible. Maybe they’re not 2019 wins — maybe they’re wins in 2020 or 2023 or 2026. But even players not working out gives you information; if Aquino came to the majors and hit like Lewis Brinson, it would still give the Reds data they didn’t have before. You don’t acquire that kind of knowledge when you’re a 90-loss team still penciling Billy Hamilton or Chris Davis into the lineup on a daily basis. Read the rest of this entry »