They were among the best players on the open market this past winter, four of the top seven on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Blake Snell had just won his second Cy Young Award, while Jordan Montgomery had a huge October, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Cody Bellinger had proven himself healthy and productive for the first time in years, and Matt Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove. The so-called “Boras Four” were supposed to land deals in the nine-figure range, but free agency became a frigid slog. Teams found nits to pick with their past production, and luxury tax concerns limited the interest of the biggest spenders, particularly when sky-high target figures were publicly floated, leading to the understandable conclusion that agent Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. The first of them (Bellinger) didn’t agree to a contract until February 25, after camps had opened, and it took another month for the last one (Montgomery) to sign. None of their seasons has gone quite as planned, either.

When the Diamondbacks visited Boston last week, Montgomery expressed frustration with the way his free agency played out. Because his wife, McKenzie Dirr, began a dermatology residency at a Boston-area hospital last fall, a deal with the Red Sox made sense, particularly given their apparent need for starting pitching. Montgomery and Boras engaged in discussions with the Red Sox, but the 31-year-old lefty did not receive a formal offer before signing his one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29.

“I had a Zoom call with [the Red Sox], that’s really all I know. It went good,” Montgomery told the Boston Herald last week. “I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”

Montgomery’s dissatisfaction wasn’t exactly a secret given that on April 11, old friend Kiley McDaniel reported that he left the Boras Corporation to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman. But the timing of his latest comments coincided with the Diamondbacks’ decision to send him to the bullpen, as he’s been lit for a 6.44 ERA in 95 innings, and is doing more harm than good as the team tries to secure a playoff spot.

Snell, who agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19, was bothered enough by Montgomery’s comments to publicly defend Boras. “My experience with Scott has been great,” he told The Athletic on Sunday. More:

“I’ve seen how [Montgomery] struggled, but he signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

While we’ll never know exactly how negotiations progressed for this bunch, or whether they’d have been better off taking different deals, their respective performances to date are worth a look, as are the decisions that lie ahead, since their contracts have mechanisms that could lead to new addresses next year. Here are the details regarding our crowdsource estimates for their contracts as well as the basics of their actual deals. I’ll tackle their respective cases alphabetically:

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger hit an impressive .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers for the Cubs last year on the heels of two injury-wracked seasons with the Dodgers, but the question was whether he could be counted on to maintain star-level production as he entered his age-28 season. His 2023 performance far outstripped his modest Statcast numbers and was driven by particularly impressive two-strike results in the service of nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half. Given the former MVP’s upside, high-quality defense, and versatility (center field, right field, first base), he ranked third on our free agent list; Boras reportedly sought a contract worth as much as $250 million, and both Ben Clemens and our crowdsource estimates figured he’d at least secure more than half of that. While the Blue Jays were considered the favorites to sign him, and the rumor mill also connected him to the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees, he returned to the Cubs on a deal that includes $27.5 million salaries for 2024 and ’25, with a $2.5 million buyout of a player option after this season, and then another player option for $25 million for ’26, with a $5 million buyout.

Bellinger has bounced around between the aforementioned three positions and designated hitter given the presence of rookies Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong and the oblique strain of Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to avoid the injured list himself, missing 13 days in April and May due to a rib fracture and then another 18 days in July due to a fractured left middle finger. His .269/.328/.423 (108 wRC+) slash line looks less like 2024 and more like his combined numbers from ’22 and ’23 (.258/.311/.457, 109 wRC+). His average exit velocity is down a bit, as are his other Statcast numbers, and he’s exceeded his expected stats by less:

The big difference between Bellinger’s 2023 and ’24 expected numbers — and a key driver of his fall-off — is on his fly balls:

After producing ridiculously strong numbers on his oppo flies in 2023, Bellinger isn’t hitting them as hard this year, reducing their average distance by 14 feet (from 284 to 270), and far fewer are falling in; none have gone over the fence, compared to four last year. While the average launch angle of his opposite-field flies has remained constant at 39 degrees, that of his pulled ones has increased from 35 to 38 degrees, and their average distance has dropped by 27 feet (from 341 to 314), with a reduction in homers from 16 to 10.

As for Bellinger’s strikeouts, his 15.3% rate is nearly identical to last year, but where he hit for a .281 AVG and .313 wOBA with two strikes last year, he’s fallen to .226 and .270, respectively, this year. His 1.5 WAR pales in comparison to last year’s 4.4, and is hardly has an ideal platform to seek a much larger contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put this winter in hopes of opting out after 2025, as I don’t think a .383 xSLG will convince anyone to invest $150 million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman reportedly declined a $120 million extension with the Blue Jays at some point last year. The team briefly pursued a return, and the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were also connected to him. While all of the Boras Four fell far short of our crowd’s expectations for contract size, Chapman is the only one whose AAV came in lower as well. He’s making $18 million via a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million salary, with a $17 million player option and $2 million buyout for ’25, an $18 million player option and $3 million buyout for ’26, and then a $20 million mutual option and $1 million buyout for ’27.

He’s also the only member of this bunch who has avoided the IL, and is the one who is having the best season. His 4.2 WAR ranks sixth in the NL, and is third among all third basemen behind only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers; it’s his highest WAR since 2019. Yet in the grand scheme, it’s hardly been an atypical season for the 31-year-old. His 118 wRC+ matches his career mark, and his .246/.333/.443 line bears a strong resemblance to last year’s .240/.330/.424, but with a bit more power; his 21-homer total so far is already four more than last season. His defense has been typically strong (11 DRS, 4 FRV, 3.1 UZR).

More notable is the arc of his season. Chapman finished 2023 in a funk, with a 54 wRC+ from August 12 onward, and he followed that by producing just an 80 wRC+ in March and April. Statcast’s bat tracking data — which places him among the game’s fastest swingers — arrived just in time to offer him some reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor adjustments instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball; he’s hit for a 129 wRC+ (.253/.353/.461) since. He and the Giants are reportedly engaged in “active dialogue” (Boras’ term) regarding a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear imminent. My guess is that he opts out, and that a return could depend upon how things unfold with Snell, since signing both to nine-figure deals may be unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery

On August 2, 2022, the Yankees traded Montgomery to the Cardinals in exchange for the injured Harrison Bader because general manager Brian Cashman reportedly didn’t believe he’d be part of the postseason rotation. From the point of the trade through the end of 2023 — after another deadline trade to the Rangers — Montgomery posted the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA among qualified starters (3.17), while ranking 12th in WAR (5.6) and 13th in FIP (3.44). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings during the 2023 postseason, doing the heavy lifting in a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWS) and the Astros (ALDS), and chipping in 2.1 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. His start against the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series was nothing special (six innings, four runs in a 9-1 rout), but it didn’t stop the team from winning its first championship.

Montgomery and Boras reportedly set their sights on topping Aaron Nola‘s seven-year, $172 million deal. In addition to the Red Sox, he was pursued to some degree by the Rangers (who were somewhat hamstrung by uncertainty over their television deal), Yankees, and Mets. The Athletic’s Jim Bowoden reported that he received two long-term offers, though neither the teams nor terms were reported. His deal with the Diamondbacks includes a $20 million vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts.

After signing, Montgomery made two starts for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first four starts were good, but his ERA has been above 6.00 since June 5. His strikeout rate has fallen from 21.4% to 15.5%, with his walk and homer rates both rising (from 6.2% to 8.3% for the former, and from 0.86 per nine to 1.14 per nine for the latter). With the recent returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly from lengthy injury-related absences, he’s been relegated to the bullpen.

Whether it’s due to the lack of a normal winter/spring buildup or the inflammation in his right knee that sidelined him for three weeks in July, the average velocity of Montgomery’s sinker is down 1.6 mph from last year (from 93.3 mph to 91.7), and the offering is getting hammered (.380 AVG/.569 SLG). His other pitches are slower and less effective as well. Per both of our pitch modeling systems, his stuff and command have both fallen off, with his botOvr falling from 52 to 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 96 to 95 (on a scale where 100 is average). He’s probably best served by exercising his option in hopes of producing a better springboard to free agency.

Blake Snell

Snell appeared primed to cash in on his second Cy Young and ERA title, but his career-high (and major league-high) 13.2% walk rate, inability to pitch deep into games (he’s never averaged six innings per turn in a season), and concerns about durability (he’s made more than 27 starts in two out of six full seasons, with last year’s 32 his career high) all helped to cool his market. Nonetheless, the Yankees reportedly offered six years and $150 million (topping both Ben’s and our crowdsource’s expectations), and the Astros and Angels made late runs before he signed with the Giants. His deal pays $15 million this year, with a $17 million signing bonus deferred until 2026; half of next year’s $30 million player option will be deferred until mild-2027 if he exercises it.

Injuries prevented the 31-year-old lefty from gaining momentum in the first half of the season. Despite an abbreviated spring, he debuted on April 8, but was dreadful in his first three turns, yielding 15 runs in 11.2 innings and then landing on the IL due to a left adductor strain. After two hitless rehab starts totaling nine innings, he struggled in three more big league starts in late May and June before being sidelined again due to a left groin strain. To that point, he had a 9.65 ERA and hadn’t completed five innings in a start. But after another five-inning hitless rehab start, he found a groove; four of his first five starts off the IL were scoreless, capped by his no-hitter against the Reds on August 2. He’s continued his roll, though a six-walk, three-inning effort against the Mariners on Saturday was nothing to write home about. Still, his splits are night and day relative to the period bracketed by his two IL trips:

Snell has tweaked his delivery a bit such that his horizontal and vertical release points have both decreased since the early going, as has his extension. He’s cut his slider usage from 16.5% before the second IL stint to 6.6% since, with the usage of his curve increasing from 18.9% to 32.4%. And why not, as the pitch is off the charts in terms of our modeling (from 144 to 148 in Stuff+, and from 66 to 76 in PitchingBot), though the big improvement there has been his fastball (103 to 115 in Stuff+, 56 to 68 in PitchingBot).

In other words, Snell is pitching like an ace, and so long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to test free agency again. Despite his imperfections, he’s got the highest ceiling of this group — he has the talent for a third Cy — and I’d expect him to land the biggest contract of the bunch next winter.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Jordan Montgomery has been bad in his first season with the Diamondbacks. A 6.44 ERA is bad, a 5.23 xERA is bad, a 15.5% strikeout rate is bad, a .377 wOBA allowed is bad. We all know these things. (Dad, if you’re reading this, and I know you are: You now know these things. All those stats are bad.) So I’m not going to spend too much time belaboring that point. But Montgomery’s badness has cascading effects beyond just how long to stick with him in the rotation or if he’ll even be on the playoff roster the Diamondbacks almost certainly will be constructing.

Montgomery agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks just before Opening Day for a contract paying him a guaranteed $25 million this year, and it crucially came with a vesting player option for Montgomery, as negotiated by his agent at the time, Scott Boras. (Montgomery has since left Boras for Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock at Wasserman.) If Montgomery had made fewer than 10 starts this year, he simply would’ve become a free agent after the World Series; this was meant to limit Arizona’s risk if Montgomery sustained a long-term injury while ramping up after his late signing.

But what it didn’t protect the Diamondbacks from was ineffectiveness, and Montgomery’s 2025 is now in his hands. The option value began at $20 million, when Montgomery made his 10th start, and then went up to $22.5 million upon his 18th start. It will reach its maximum value of $25 million with four more starts. Since Montgomery is very much in the “he would probably have to take a one-year pillow contract” territory, I’d be absolutely shocked if he didn’t take the $25 million payday. The best he can hope for now is that next year, after getting a normal offseason and a full spring training, he pitches more like he did when he dominated during the 2023 postseason, so that his value rebounds when he becomes free agent again after the 2025 season.

The downstream effects on any team’s payroll would be notable — $25 million is a lot! — but especially so for the Diamondbacks. The Snakes currently have $171 million committed to this season, their highest payroll ever, and $63 million committed to next year. If Montgomery makes four more starts and elects to stay with the team, next year’s figure would jump to $88 million. On the surface, you’d think that would give Arizona a ton of room to build a team just as good as this one, but the payroll can increase very sharply, very quickly.

That $63 million number is only what’s actually committed to players as of this second, mainly the guaranteed money to Eduardo Rodriguez, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Corbin Carroll. Also included are the presumed buyouts of the mutual options (which are virtually never exercised) for Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Scott McGough. That $63 million also includes the combined $3 million in buyouts that the D-backs would need to pay if they don’t pick up their club options on Eugenio Suárez and Merrill Kelly. Suárez’s option could go either way, so for now we’ll just assume that it’s declined, but Kelly’s seems like a no-brainer to get picked up for just $7 million. Working off of that (adding the $7 million and subtracting the $1 million buyout they won’t have to pay him), we’re now at $69 million, or $94 million with Montgomery. That figure would be about 55% of this year’s franchise-record payroll for just six players.

Onto the arbitration-eligible players: Zac Gallen, A.J. Puk, Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Joe Mantiply have gone through arbitration before and should all stick around; they’re making about $14.3 million combined this year. If we conservatively assume that in the aggregate they get raises of 25%, that’s another $18 million or so added to next year’s payroll, for a total of $112 million. Throw in $3 million combined for the guys who’ll be in their first year of arbitration — Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo — and we’re all the way up to two-thirds of this year’s payroll. Pre-arbitration players should account for, at absolute minimum, another $10 million or so, and boom, that brings the figure up to $125 million, 70% of where it’s at this season.

All of that would leave the D-backs plenty of room to build another really good team if they didn’t have any significant free agents to replace, but of course, they almost certainly will. Pederson has been quietly elite as a platoon DH; despite playing exactly zero games in the field and facing lefties only 30 times, he’s compiled 3.1 WAR because he’s just so darn good at mashing righties. Christian Walker, currently on the IL with an oblique strain, is set to hit free agency entering his age-34 season, so he’s not in line for a huge deal, but he’d still probably reject Arizona’s qualifying offer and look for a longer contract.

Perhaps 7th-ranked prospect Jordan Lawlar is able to factor into the infield, making Suárez’s possible departure easier to swallow, but there’s no heir apparent to Walker at first or Pederson at DH. The D-backs traded away their offense-first prospects Andrés Chaparro and Deyvison De Los Santos, and Tommy Troy — their other top-100 prospect — is struggling in High-A and years away from the majors. Perhaps Gurriel Jr. spends more time at DH next season to keep him fresh, with a speedy outfield of Carroll, Thomas, and Jake McCarthy, though without Pederson and Walker, that certainly makes for a worse offense. Signing at least one starting-caliber player would cost (again, conservatively) at least $12 million, which would bring them to 80% of this season’s payroll.

Again, all of these estimates are conservative, and I’m including only the bare minimum investment that the Diamondbacks would have to make to continue to have a competitive, complete roster. All of this to say: They may have to get creative. With Montgomery and Kelly both expected to be around next season, Arizona will have six starters (Montgomery, Kelly, Rodriguez, Gallen, Ryne Nelson, and Brandon Pfaadt) for five rotation spots. The D-backs could trade from that surplus to fill a position of need, just as they did a couple offseasons ago when they dealt Daulton Varsho for Gabriel Moreno and Gurriel Jr.

Teams would line up for Pfaadt, Nelson quietly has been worth a solid 2.0 WAR, and even if he hasn’t pitched like an ace for over a year now, Gallen still has notable trade value as he enters his final year before free agency. I’m not saying the Diamondbacks definitely will trade a starter, but it’s something they should consider. The Orioles, for example, are rich in young position players and have just three rotation spots (Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers) locked in for next year.

Of course, if Montgomery bounces back next season, Arizona won’t regret paying him $25 million, but unless ownership decides to increase payroll, things are going to be tight. The primary focus for the Diamondbacks right now is on defending their National League title, but regardless of how long they last during their probable return to the postseason, tough decisions may be awaiting them on the other side of October.

You can add two more stars to the game’s unfortunate tally of injured players, as Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were both added to the 10-day injured list on Monday. Riley, who has been one of Atlanta’s hottest hitters after an ice-cold start to the 2024 season, was removed from Sunday’s game against the Angels after a 97-mph Jack Kochanowicz sinker went very high and very inside, connecting with his wrist. Marte’s injury appears less serious than Riley’s, but a re-aggravated sprained ankle has put him on the shelf at a key moment in Arizona’s playoff run.

When I ran the numbers on baseball’s most injured teams last week, Atlanta came out second in terms of the most lost potential value, “beaten” by only the Dodgers. Riley, who has gotten MVP votes in each of the last three seasons, has had a bit of a down year, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and 2.4 WAR, which represents his weakest performance since before his 2021 breakout. But even if he hasn’t had a particularly sterling season overall, he’s become very important lately, especially as the injuries have piled up and the rest of the team’s offense has swooned. Riley’s seasonal line was as low as .220/.288/.330 back in mid-June; he’d gone more than a month without a homer and had only hit three on the season. Since June 13, however, Riley has led Atlanta’s lineup in WAR and hit 16 round-trippers:

Monday’s MRI, which revealed a broken wrist, puts Riley out of action for 6-8 weeks, meaning that unless the Braves go deep into the playoffs, his 2024 season is probably over. While there’s never a good time to lose a middle-of-the-order hitter, Riley’s loss comes at a particularly awkward point for the Braves, as their seven games against the division-leading Phillies over the next week-and-a-half likely represent their last, best chance to seize the NL East, long-shot though it may be. The Braves seem to have arrested their fall in the standings, winning five of their last seven, but they’re still barely clinging to the last Wild Card spot, as they’re only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 1/2 in front of the Giants.

The silver lining — or arguably a dull gray one — is that Gio Urshela was suddenly available in free agency after being released by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday; the Braves signed him to a major league deal earlier today. The problem, of course, is that the only reason Urshela was available is that he’s having such a poor season that nobody wanted to risk picking up the pro-rated dollars remaining on his one-year, $1.5 million contract. Urshela had a solid little peak, putting up a 118 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR for the Yankees and Twins from 2019 to 2022, but after a fractured pelvis in 2023 and a miserable .243/.286/.333 line this year, he appears to be on the downslope of his career.

While I still think Nacho Alvarez Jr. would have been the best replacement despite his weak debut stint, Atlanta appears to want to play it safer, opting for the veteran Urshela over Luke Williams and maybe a bit of Whit Merrifield if Ozzie Albies returns in September. Without the Riley injury, ZiPS projected a 73% chance of the Braves holding off the Mets and Giants and making the playoffs; replacing Riley with Urshela drops that probability to 68%, while playing mostly Williams at third would cause it to dip a little further to 67%. Despite Urshela only being projected at replacement level or a hair above, paying $400,000 for 1% of a playoff spot is actually a reasonable value. To make room for Urshela on the 40-man roster, A.J. Minter, who is out with hip surgery, was moved to the 60-day IL. However, that doesn’t change the team’s projection, as I had already baked in the assumption that, at best, Minter was very likely to only get a few outings in the season’s final days.

As I mentioned above, Ketel Marte’s injury is far less serious than Riley’s. Marte originally sprained his ankle on August 10 after a Garrett Stubbs slide into second base. The Diamondbacks didn’t place him on the IL, opting to use him carefully in the last week, with a couple late-inning appearances and a game at DH. They’re taking no chances this time, though, and the hope is that he’ll be able to make a quick return after taking some time to recuperate.

As with Riley’s injury, Marte’s comes at a key point in the season for his team. After treading water earlier this season, the Diamondbacks have been one of baseball’s hottest teams, and along with the Padres, they’ve actually made the Dodgers feel at least mildly uncomfortable at the top of the NL West. Before the injury, Marte had been on the hottest run of his career, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers since the start of June. His 3.9 WAR over that timeframe ranked behind only Francisco Lindor’s 4.2 WAR among NL hitters. Combined with Arizona’s surge, Marte was putting together a reasonable MVP case. Assuming he only requires a minimum stay on the IL, the significant downgrade to Kevin Newman doesn’t represent a serious hit to the Snakes’ playoff hopes; ZiPS has them at 90% odds to make the playoffs, only a 0.5% drop from their projection without the injury. In the best-case scenario, the Diamondbacks would get Marte back just in time for a key four-game series against the Dodgers next week, their last opportunity to directly inflict punishment on their division rival in the standings.

The injuries to Riley and Marte don’t doom their teams to 2024 oblivion, but they do make their respective team’s challenges this year a bit more daunting. But hey, nobody said it would be easy.

As the man who inspired Brad Pitt’s most memorable role once said, “My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.” Assuming Billy Beane wasn’t explaining an October Metamucil purchase to a grocery store cashier who simply asked how his day was going, what Beane likely meant was that the statistics used to construct his major league rosters don’t accrue large enough samples during postseason series to eventually even out in his favor. Over the course of 162 games, a team’s production settles into a reasonable representation of the squad’s true talent. But zoom in on any random seven-game stretch and the team on the field might look like a bunch of dudes in baseball player cosplay.

What applies to team outcomes applies just as well to player outcomes. A player with a perfectly respectable stat line in the regular season might morph into a pumpkin as the calendar shifts to fall, or on the flip side, an unlikely hero may emerge from the ashes of a cruel summer and put the whole team on his back.

With the law of averages in mind, I’d always assumed that the more consistent hitters would be better positioned to perform well in the playoffs. My thinking went like this: The natural variation in these hitters’ performances would never wander too far from their season-long average, making them the safer, more predictable options. Whereas streaky hitters — the ones with high highs, low lows, and steep transitions between the two — would be too reliant on “getting hot at the right time” to be the type of hitter a front office should depend on in the postseason.

Reader, I was incorrect. Read the rest of this entry »

What a wild ride it’s been for Jake McCarthy the past three seasons. In 2022, he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, seemingly the right fielder of the future for the Arizona Diamondbacks. It wasn’t the kind of performance that would make anyone think that he — and not Corbin Carroll — was Arizona’s franchise player. But it was the kind of performance that could tempt inveterate contrarians into saying, “You know, Carroll gets all the attention, but McCarthy is the one who really makes this team tick.”

Then, in 2023, McCarthy was total buttcrack. He barely kept his head above replacement level as he lost playing time to Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Tommy Pham, and a partridge in a pear tree. Then, because when it rains it pours — even in the desert — McCarthy suffered an oblique injury that kept him from playing any part in the Diamondbacks’ run to the World Series.

But in 2024, he’s reclaimed his rightful place in the lineup, and he’s hitting .303/.375/.451. With almost two months left in the regular season, he’s set new career highs in games played and WAR. All is well once again. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Bell has only been a Diamondback for a little over a week, but in that short time, he’s made his presence felt. Acquired just ahead of the trade deadline in a deal with the Marlins, Bell stepped in for the injured Christian Walker and homered twice in his debut against the Pirates on August 2. On Wednesday he did it again, bashing two homers in the nightcap of a doubleheader against the Guardians in Cleveland. The Diamondbacks swept the pair of games, moving them into a tie for the National League Wild Card lead and into second in the rapidly tightening NL West race.

Indeed, the Padres aren’t the only NL West team that has gained traction in both races lately. With the sweep, the Diamondbacks have now won 18 of their last 23 games, a run that has rocketed them from two games below .500 to 11 games above while nearly tripling their odds of making the playoffs:

That 18-5 record is the majors’ best in that span, 2.5 games better than the Padres (14-6). The Diamondbacks have done it against a mix of good teams (the Braves, Guardians and Royals occupy playoff positions at this writing, and the Pirates have been right around .500) and not-so-good ones (the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Nationals). Not only are the Diamondbacks now tied with the Padres for the Wild Card lead, they’ve trimmed the Dodgers’ division lead to three games — as close as they’ve been since April 24 — which has really goosed their Playoff Odds. Read the rest of this entry »

This probably isn’t a problem for most people, but I’m plagued constantly by the memory of frustrating baseball arguments from days past. I probably get into these arguments more than most people, partially because of my (and I hope it doesn’t sound immodest to say this) vast knowledge of the sport, but mostly because I’ve lived most of my life in New Jersey, which his home to the most stubborn, tendentious people you’d ever have the misfortune of meeting.

One such argument took place probably close to 15 years ago, when I ruined what was supposed to be a relaxing Friday evening down the shore by getting into a shouting match over the issue of Alex Rodriguez vs. Derek Jeter. I preferred A-Rod, who would go on to finish his career with a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher than that of his Yankees teammate. I was arguing against someone whose case rested on Jeter being “more clutch.”

If you’re old enough to remember what “analytics bloggers” like me thought about that argument in the 2010s, you can understand my quickness to anger and probably imagine the colors my face turned. When the dust settled, Jeter — who, it turns out, was actually an exceptional hitter all along — did finish with a better career postseason wRC+ than A-Rod. But it was close: 121 to Jeter, 116 for Rodriguez. Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks came through this weekend having won eight of their past 10 games, and after a bumpy start to the season, the Snakes are suddenly one of the most dangerous teams in the National League bracket. They hold a playoff spot even though their franchise player, Corbin Carroll, has hit like Eric Bruntlett this season, and despite having gotten nothing from the 2-3-4 slots in a rotation that was supposed to be a strength. Literally nothing in the case of Eduardo Rodriguez, who makes his season debut today.

So I was a little surprised when I went on Ketel Marte’s page and saw that we hadn’t written a standalone article about him on the main FanGraphs site this season. That’s our bad. Let me make up for it. Read the rest of this entry »

This is a trade article, as the Diamondbacks acquired Josh Bell from the Marlins today in exchange for cash considerations. It’s also an injury article, sadly. Christian Walker departed last night’s D-backs/Nationals game with an oblique injury, and was due for an MRI this morning. The results haven’t been made public yet, but trading for Bell is a statement in and of itself, so let’s walk through the trade and injury in combination.

Walker has quietly been the second-best first baseman in the game over the past three years. I don’t mean that hyperbolically; he’s second only to Freddie Freeman in WAR over that time period. He’s done it with good offense and outrageous, comically good first base defense. I don’t think I’m selling this enough. Per Statcast, Walker has been 38 outs above average over that time period. Carlos Santana is second… with 17. DRS scores it 33-20 in Walker’s favor, with Matt Olson at 21. However you look at it, Walker is head and shoulders above everyone else at the position. Last night, he made a standard-for-him, spectacular-for-most play on a foul ball:

After that inning, he came back to the dugout and departed the game. Now we and the Diamondbacks can only wait to hear the injury news. Read the rest of this entry »

While trades of relievers at the deadline are rarely the hottest moves featuring the best prospects, there are usually a lot of them. As the summer reaches its peak, contenders start to think about their bullpens down the stretch and beyond, and with modern bullpens seemingly as densely populated as the cover of Sgt. Pepper’s, there’s always room to add a quality arm. Let’s dig through them!

Editor’s Note: This reliever roundup doesn’t include the more recent trades for Carlos Estévez, Nick Mears, and Jason Adam. Ben Clemens will cover those moves in a separate post.)

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHRP A.J. Puk from the Miami Marlins for 1B/3B Deyvison De Los Santos and OF Andrew Pintar

Don’t focus too much on the raw ERA or unimpressive walk rate when judging the merits of Arizona’s trade for A.J. Puk. Partially in response to their myriad rotation injuries in the spring, the Marlins took Puk’s attempt to get back into the rotation seriously, and he started the season there after a successful spring. I still think that was a well-founded experiment, but it didn’t pay dividends for Miami. Puk was absolutely dreadful as a starter, and it wasn’t long before he landed on the IL with shoulder fatigue. His four starts resulted in a 9.22 ERA, a 6.29 FIP, and an alarming 17 walks in 13 2/3 innings. He was moved back to the ’pen upon his return in mid-May, but the damage to his seasonal line was so significant that it still looked underwhelming at the time of the trade (4.30 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 44 IP).

As he has the last few years, Puk has dominated as a reliever; across 30 1/3 relief innings with the Marlins, he had 33 strikeouts and, perhaps most importantly, only six walks. The result was a 2.08 ERA/2.42 FIP, with batters managing a bleak .159/.204/.252 against him. The Diamondbacks are short on lefty relievers, with Joe Mantiply shouldering a very large share of the southpaw burden. Puk has historically been better against righties than Mantiply, so he can be used in more situations.

In return, the offense-starved Marlins pick up a couple of possible bats to add to their farm system. With a .325/.376/.635 and 28 homers combined at two levels in the high minors this year, Deyvison De Los Santos looks impressive at first look, but it’s important to contextualize those numbers. He’s playing in some very high offensive environments and there’s a lot of hot air to remove from those numbers to turn them into expected MLB performance. ZiPS translates his 2024 minor league performance to .263/.302/.428 in the majors and projects for wRC+ lines between 95 and 110 in the coming years with the Marlins. Now, that’s enough for the Marlins to be interested in him and chase any upside, but don’t be shocked if he’s not an offensive force.

Similarly, ZiPS translates Andrew Pintar’s season at .235/.302/.365 and doesn’t see a ton of growth from him offensively, viewing him as most likely to be a spare outfielder if he reaches the majors. I talked a bit with my colleague Eric Longenhagen about him on Friday and Eric still grades Pintar as a fifth-outfielder type, which is about how ZiPS evaluates him. Still, as with De Los Santos, Pintar’s interesting enough for a team like the Marlins to take a chance on him and give him an extended look; projections are frequently wrong, after all, by design!

The Seattle Mariners acquired RHRP Yimi García from the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Jonatan Clase and C Jacob Sharp

With the Blue Jays as short-term sellers, it’s hardly surprising to see them trade Yimi García, who is a free agent at the end of the season. His three-year, $16 million deal turned out to be a success for the Jays; he’s been worth 2.7 WAR and put up a 3.44 ERA/3.28 FIP over 163 appearances across two-plus seasons. This season has arguably been his best, as he’s striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. With Gregory Santos limping a bit after a knee injury – not believed to be severe – García slots in behind Andrés Muñoz in the Mariners’ bullpen pecking order. Seattle’s relief corps has been in the middle of the pack, but adding García to a group that features Muñoz, a healthy Santos, and Taylor Saucedo gives the M’s an excellent quartet of high-leverage guys, which could be crucial in what’s shaping up to be a tight AL West race.

Jonatan Clase was listed with a FV of 40 earlier this month when Eric ran down the top Mariners prospects, but with Julio Rodríguez entrenched in center field and backed up by other outfielders who can capably cover the position (namely Victor Robles, Cade Marlowe, and even, in a pinch, newly acquired Randy Arozarena), Clase’s ability to do so was simply less valuable in Seattle. Beyond that, the team needs more thump in its lineup at this point, and that’s not Clase’s speciality. For the Jays, Kevin Kiermaier is a free agent after the season and the organization has a real lack of center field candidates anywhere near the majors. ZiPS projects Clase at .218/.291/.373 with an 84 wRC+ for 2025 but views him as an above-average defensive center fielder, suggesting that he’s at least a reasonable stopgap option or a useful role player for Toronto. Jacob Sharp has been off the radar as a prospect, a fairly small catcher who is hitting decently well, albeit as a 22-year-old in A-ball.

The New York Mets acquired RHRP Ryne Stanek from the Seattle Mariners for OF Rhylan Thomas

The Mets have an extremely unimpressive bullpen once you get past Edwin Díaz, and now that they are firmly in contention for an NL Wild Card spot this season, they are looking to improve their relief corps. Ryne Stanek hasn’t excelled in Seattle, but the veteran reliever still throws in the high-90s, is durable, and misses bats. Guys like that will always resurface. Especially after trading for García, the Mariners have better options than Stanek to pitch in high-leverage, non-save situations. But that’s not the case in Queens, and he’s a welcome addition to the bullpen.

Rhylan Thomas isn’t a high price to pay and he largely fills a similar role to the departed Clase in Seattle’s organization, though he’s a different type of player. As a high-contact hitter, Thomas may fare well in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. ZiPS sees Thomas as a .263/.313/.333 hitter with plus defense in the corners in 2025.

The Tampa Bay Rays acquired RHRP Cole Sulser from the New York Mets for cash

Cole Sulser is a relative soft-tosser who relies on deception. He had a big breakout season in 2021, but after a trade to the Marlins, he struggled with his command in ’22 and had his season marred by a lat injury that landed him on the 60-day IL. A shoulder injury ruined his 2023 and he’s spent ’24 trying to rehabilitate his value in the minors for the Mets, with mixed results. This is the third time the Rays have traded for Sulser in his career, so they seem to see something in him, and given Tampa Bay’s record with random relievers, I wouldn’t be shocked if he became useful for the Rays next season.

Cash is slang for currency, which can be exchanged for goods and services. It can be vulnerable to inflation, and because of this, it doesn’t represent a stable medium of exchange in some countries. But cash also has the benefit of being very flexible.

The Chicago Cubs acquired RHRP Nate Pearson from the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Yohendrick Pinango

Nate Pearson was rightly a hot prospect back in the day, and there were good reasons to think he’d play a key role in Toronto. Both scouts (he graduated at a FV of 55 here) and projections (ZiPS was a fan) thought a lot of his abilities, but the question was how he’d hold up physically as a starter. This worry turned out to be a real issue, and for the most part since 2019, his seasons have been marred by a wide variety of nagging injuries, costing him significant development time. Pearson throws hard, but he’s still rather raw, a problem given that he turns 28 in a few weeks and he has only two years left of club control after this one — not a lot of time for a reclamation project. The Cubs have decided to take a shot at fixing him. They are short-term sellers, but if Pearson pays off, he could be a significant player for their ’pen in 2025 and ’26.

Yohendrick Pinango is rather raw as well, a corner outfielder with decent power upside who hasn’t really shown that home run pop in the minors so far. The Cubs are kind of stacked with raw, interesting outfield prospects, while the Jays are rather short of them, making Toronto a better home for Pinango. ZiPS only translates Pinango’s 2024 season to a .344 slugging percentage; he hit well in High-A, but that was as a 22-year-old in his third stint there. Like Pearson, Pinango’s a lottery ticket.