Back in the halcyon days of 2021, things were looking up for Robbie Ray. After a promising but inconsistent start to his career, he put everything together all at once and won a Cy Young award. He hit free agency on the back of that season and signed a deal that guaranteed him five times what he’d made in the majors so far. The future was bright – except that Ray turned around and put up a miserable 2022 campaign, meaningfully worse across the board despite pitching in Seattle, where trained squirrels can go six innings and give up two runs in the pitcher-friendliest ballpark in the big leagues. Then he got hurt. And later got traded as salary ballast. Life comes at you fast.
Ray would hardly be the first pitcher to spike some hardware in a weak year — only six AL pitchers reached 4 WAR in 2021; Ray wasn’t one of them — and then fade away. Rick Porcello says hi, by the way. If Ray’s last act was keeping replacement-level time on the Giants, at least he got his one big payday. Expectations weren’t high, and when he was shut down with an injury only a month after returning in the second half of last year, they fell further still.
Of course, I’m writing this article, so you know that hasn’t continued. Rather than teeter into irrelevance, Ray has come out strong to start 2025. He looks as good as he has since his award-winning season – and arguably even better. So let’s look at how he’s doing it now, because whether you’re a long-time Ray-head or just seeing the first Rays of light this year, he’s a strange enough – and fun enough – pitcher to be worth taking notice of. Read the rest of this entry »
Things did not go well for the Cubs’ Ryan Pressly on Tuesday night against the Giants at Wrigley Field. Chicago had clawed its way back from a fourth-inning, 5-2 deficit, capped by a two-run, ninth-inning rally that sent the game into extra innings. After an uneventful 10th, all hell broke loose in the 11th, as Pressly failed to retire any of the eight batters he faced. By the time the dust settled, nine runs had scored, and unlike the Cubs’ April 18 game against the Diamondbacks, where they answered 10 eighth-inning runs with six of their own on the bottom of the frame and won 13-11, this time they fell 14-5.
As you might expect, it took a bad break or two to blow the doors open in that 11th inning. Following a double by Heliot Ramos and an RBI single by Patrick Bailey, Brett Wisely laid down a sacrifice bunt toward the first base side of the mound. Pressly fielded the ball and made an awkward, backhanded flip to Carson Kelly, but the ball dribbled under the catcher’s glove. Ramos was safe at home and Wisely reached first, still with nobody out. Mike Yastrzemski walked to load the bases, and then Willy Adames was hit by a pitch to force in Bailey. On the replay, it looked like a wild pitch that had gotten by Kelly, which would have advanced the runners and scored the run nonetheless, but home plate umpire Bill Miller ruled the ball had grazed Adames. The call was upheld after the Cubs challenged it, adding another baserunner to the mix, and consecutive singles by Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Wilmer Flores brought in four more runs (two on Chapman’s hit). With the score already a lopsided 11-5, Cubs manager Craig Counsell mercifully gave Pressly the hook.
The onslaught didn’t stop. Reliever Caleb Thielbar entered and finally recorded the first out by striking out Christian Koss before serving up an RBI double to Ramos. Bailey added a sacrifice fly before David Villar, pinch-hitting for Wisely, struck out. The Cubs went down in order against Kyle Harrison in the bottom of the 11th, and that was that. Read the rest of this entry »
Back in January, I wrote an article called “Unfuzzing the Strike Zone.” The premise was pretty simple. As umpires have grown more accurate, as the edges of the strike zone have gotten clearer and more distinct, the strike zone has effectively gotten smaller. Misses go both ways, but there’s a big difference between an incorrectly called ball and an incorrectly called strike. Calling a pitch inside the zone a ball doesn’t shrink the effective size of the zone, but calling a pitch outside the zone a strike does make it bigger. As long as a pitcher knows it’s possible to get a strike call out there, they’ll consider it part of the zone. Little did I know that as I was writing that article, Major League Baseball was preparing to test its exact premise.
The strike zone has steadily shed its fuzz over the past 23 seasons, but on Thursday, Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal reported in The Athletic that the league has decided to break out a sweater shaver. Over the offseason, the Major League Umpires Association came to a new agreement with MLB. Part of the agreement included tightening the standards by which ball-strike calls are graded.
Umpires used to have a two-inch buffer around the edge of the strike zone, meaning that if they’d missed a call by fewer than two inches outside the zone, the call would still go down as correct in their assessments. Having that buffer is necessary because calling balls and strikes is extraordinarily difficult. It’s extremely rare for an umpire to get every call right even in a single game. The new border is just three-quarters of an inch on either side. The league is demanding a less fuzzy strike zone. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. With the first month of major league baseball in the books, I’m settling into the rhythm of the regular season. Baseball writing in the morning, baseball on TV in the afternoon, and usually baseball on TV in the evening. Every so often, I’ll skip two of those and go to the ballpark instead. The actual baseball is falling into a rhythm, too. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, Aaron Judge is the best hitter, and Paul Skenes is the best pitcher, just like we all expected. But part of the rhythm of baseball is that the unexpected happens multiple times a day, and that’s what Five Things is for. With a nod of recognition and thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the column format, let’s start the shenanigans.
1. Stopping at Third
The math is pretty easy: A double with runners on second and third scores both runners. Sometimes it even brings home a guy standing on first at the start of the play, too. Last week, though, things got weird. First, Jacob Stallings flat out demolished a ball off the right field wall, but Hunter Goodman didn’t have the read:
Hey, that happens. There are a few plays like this in the majors every year. The batter can tear around the bases as much as he wants, but runners have to stop and make sure it’s a hit first. Goodman couldn’t be sure that the ball would hit the wall, and with no one out, he quite reasonably played it safe. Blake Dunn played the carom perfectly, and again, with nobody out, Goodman didn’t try his luck at home. Read the rest of this entry »
No player wants to suffer a significant, season-ending injury like Jung Hoo Lee did last May, especially in their rookie year. But when players do find themselves in that situation, they can at least use the time to reflect on their performance and make adjustments that they think will improve their game upon their return. Despite it being early in the season, it seems that is exactly what Lee has done.
The Giants center fielder’s offensive improvements warrant a look under the hood to see exactly what he has changed, because right now, he seems like a completely different player from the one we saw last year. So far this season, Lee is sporting a 192 wRC+, a .394 xwOBA (86th percentile), a 43.1% sweet-spot rate (87th percentile), and a .446 xwOBACON. Those are all big improvements compared to his limited 2024 sample. Read the rest of this entry »
Have you seen all the technological advances taking over pitching in recent years? High-speed cameras, pitching labs, weighted ball training, wind tunnels – maybe the reason we haven’t sent anyone to the moon for decades is that we’re using all the technology to strike batters out instead. Clearly, the arms race (get it?) favors technological savvy and complicated, inscrutable mathematical modeling.
Here’s a counterpoint, though: Maybe you should just throw a fastball and a slider and laugh as batters flail at both. Case in point: Randy Rodríguez has been the best reliever in baseball this year, and there’s nothing fancy about his game. He throws a 98-mph fastball. He throws a tight slider. That’s it – and that’s really all he needs anyway. Through eight appearances this year, he has 13 strikeouts, zero walks, and zero runs allowed.
Oh, two paragraphs don’t make an article? Well then, I guess we should expand on everything a bit. First, his backstory: Rodríguez signed with the Giants in 2017 out of the Dominican Republic and then slowly climbed the minor league ranks. He was a reliever right from the jump, with only occasional dalliances with short-burst starts, and he got a taste of Triple-A in 2022, where he got shelled. He tried it again in 2023 with better results, and by 2024 he looked like he belonged. That was his first year in the upper minors with a single-digit walk rate, and that’s all the Giants were waiting for; they called him up midseason and plugged him into the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »
For the past half decade, Logan Webb has been one of the game’s premier starters. He churns out 30-start seasons with ERAs in the 3s like clockwork; that’s almost exactly his seasonal average since switching to a full-time sinkerballer in 2021. In that span, he’s averaging 4.4 WAR per year, and he’s topped 200 innings in each of the past two seasons. This year, he’s atop the leaderboards again, with a 2.63 ERA and 2.25 FIP through four starts. But there’s something new to see here, and it’s a change I thought Webb would make for years before he actually did, so I think an updated look is in order.
Webb’s approach was simple and yet effective. He threw three pitches to righties: sinker, sweeper, changeup. Against lefties, he threw fewer sweepers and more changeups, and he also mixed in a few four-seamers in lieu of sinkers. For the most part, though, he alternated his three best pitches, weighted to suit the batter he was facing. Here’s a great graphic, courtesy of Baseball Savant’s player pages, that shows Webb’s movement profile. I picked 2023 for reasons that will become obvious shortly:
This shows a few things about Webb’s game in one image. His sinker and changeup move very differently from the league-average versions of those pitches. His four-seamer, rarely thrown, is effective not because of inherent shape, but because it’s different from his primary fastball. His sweeper is the only thing he throws that breaks glove side, and it breaks that way by quite a lot. If you’re facing Webb, you’re either going to see something that tails hard arm side (sinker or changeup) or something that shoots hard glove side (sweeper). It’s like facing Clay Holmes or Blake Treinen for 100 pitches at a time. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) In Baseball This Week. I was at a wedding this past weekend, a generally fun event for a baseball writer. That’s because strangers ask me what I do, and then I get to say, “I’m a baseball writer.” That plays a lot better than, “I work in accounting/finance/tech,” no offense to any of you in those fine fields. But this weekend, someone inquired deeper. “Oh, like sabermetric stuff?” “Yeah! Kind of. Also I make GIFs of dumb and/or weird plays. And bunts, lots of bunts.” Yes, it’s a strange job being a baseball writer, but also a delightful one, and this week delivered whimsy and awe in equal amounts. So unlike guests milling around at a wedding, let’s get straight to the point – after the customary nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the inspiration for this article format.
1. Not Reaching Home
The third time a runner was tagged out at the plate in Wednesday’s Cardinals-Pirates clash came at a pivotal moment. Locked in a scoreless tie in the bottom of the 11th, Pittsburgh finally looked like it would break through when Joey Bart singled to right. But, well:
That was a good throw by Lars Nootbaar and a clean catch by Pedro Pagés, and that combination turned a close play into a gimme. I mean, how often are you going to be safe when the catcher already has the ball in his glove and you’re here:
Landen Roupp leans heavily on his high-spin curveball, and Hayden Birdsong is a purveyor of the kick-change. Both pitches profile as plus, which is a big reason the right-handers are being counted on to provide quality innings in their respective roles with the San Francisco Giants this season; Roupp is in the rotation, while Birdsong is working out of the bullpen.
The early results have been promising. The 26-year-old Roupp, who is scheduled to make his second start on Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds, made his season debut on April 2 in a 6-3 Giants win over the Houston Astros. The start wasn’t great — he was removed with the bases loaded and nobody out in the fifth inning and was ultimately charged with three runs — but his eight strikeouts were encouraging. Seven of those strikeouts — and none of the four hits he allowed — came against his curveball. He threw his signature offering 34 times in his 83-pitch effort.
Birdsong has thrown four scoreless innings over two relief appearances. One of his four strikeouts has come courtesy of the kick-change, which he has thrown nine times out of 53 total pitches. The 23-year-old, likewise in his second big league season, has primarily attacked hitters with his high-octane heater (56.6% usage).
The stories behind Roupp’s hook and Birdsong’s changeup? I broached the subjects with the right-handers in Giants camps shortly before the start of the regular season.
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“I’ve thrown it my entire life,” Roupp said of his curveball. “All that’s really different is that I’m getting stronger with more mobility, and learning about the metrics. In college we didn’t have metrics. So, learning ways to make it move more and spin harder… learning and growing into my body has made it a lot better. For me, having confidence in it is the biggest thing.”
A 12th-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington in 2021, Roupp spun his curveball at 3,056 rpm in his April 2 outing, comfortably within the 2,900-3,100 range he’d described to me. Roupp also said that he “gets about 19 to 22 [inches] of horizontal [movement] and something like negative-11 vert” when he is executing properly. Timing is the key. When he’s out of sync with his delivery it doesn’t come out of his hand exactly as he’d like. Picking up a baseball, Roupp showed me his two-seam fastball grip, then rotated the ball just slightly. He explained that he throws his curveball just like his two-seamer, but “with a snap.”
Roupp’s curveball is “pretty slow,” averaging 77.4 mph since the start of last season. He said the speed differential between that and his fastball — his two-seamer averages 93.4 mph — is a big part of its effectiveness. As for its usage, he threw the curve 41% of the time in his first outing, which was slightly less frequently than he did last season (44.1%). With the caveat that one game is nowhere near a large enough sample size to determine what a pitcher’s usage rates will be, that dip was notable given that Roupp told me this spring that his plan was to throw his curve less often this season.
“Coming up through the minor leagues, they were telling me I was throwing it too much,” Roupp said. “That was more about developing my other pitches, though. But while I might throw it 40% of the time, I do think I’m going to lean back a little bit now that I have the changeup and the cutter. The changeup was new last year, and the cutter this year. I want to implement those and get people off my curveball so that it’s even more effective at the big league level.”
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“I have a high-vert heater with pretty good velo,” Birdsong said when asked to describe his full arsenal. “My curveball is the opposite of my fastball in that it’s just straight down; it’s negative-15 vert when it’s good. My slider is kind of in development and is more of a cutter. My changeup is just my changeup. I started throwing it last year, and it’s developed into one of my better pitches.”
That would of course be the kick-change. The right-hander supposedly learned it at Tread Athletics… except, that’s not true. Birdsong explained that while “everybody says that,” he’s never been to Tread, nor has he talked to anyone who works there. He simply watched a Tread video, then began experimenting with the grip the following day.
“I started playing catch with it — this was in spring training — and I’m not sure I can even remember who my catch partner was,” said Birdsong, whom the Giants took in the sixth round of the 2022 draft out of Eastern Illinois. “It might have been Spencer Bivens. But my changeup had been horrible the year before. It was basically just a bad fastball, a 15-vert slower fastball. That’s all it was. I needed to find another grip, one that wasn’t a splitter — I didn’t want to mess with one of those — so I started looking at videos. That one popped up.”
Birdsong’s previous attempts to find a quality changeup had all been for naught, but when he saw the kick-change, he thought, “Let’s try it.” To his knowledge, he’d never thrown one “under nine vert.” All of a sudden, he had one that was close to zero. The first coach he approached with that news didn’t believe it.
“I was throwing it, and it was tumbling,” Birdsong said. “It was doing what I wanted it to do. I told [bullpen coach Garvin Alston] that I’d thrown a changeup in the bullpen and it was negative vert. He goes ‘No.’ Then he was like, ‘Let me go take a look [at the data].’ I asked him about it the next day and he said, ‘Keep throwing it.’”
As Davis Martin and Matt Bowman explained here at FanGraphs last September, the pitch that Birdsong is now throwing has a close-cousin relationship with the better-known split change. While the name is new, the pitch itself really isn’t.
“I saw the video and called it a spike change,” said Birdsong. “I showed the grip to somebody — I forget who it was — and he was like, ‘Yeah, there are some guys who used to throw that. It’s called a kick-change.’ All it is, really, is that you’re kicking the axis of the ball. Whatever you call it, it works for me.”
During the course of my spring training coverage (especially right at the end), I ran into the Giants affiliates a couple of times as I trailed the Brewers and Dodgers farm systems. I saw enough to make a few tweaks to the Giants prospect list, which I have brief notes on below. You can see the complete updated list over on The Board. I’ve also included notes on a few recent trades.
Toolsy Outfielders With Strikeout Risk Who Have Moved Up
Dakota Jordan’s swing has changed (mostly his posture throughout the swing), and I think it gives him a better chance to hit. I was way out on him making any kind of viable contact before last year’s draft, but he has loud showcase tools (power/speed) and now we’ll see if the proactive changes make a difference for his contact ability. He has also looked good in center field, including highlight reel play in which he collided with the wall at Papago Park, but then forgot how many outs there were and spiked the baseball:
