Without a true minor league season on which to fixate, I’ve been spending most of my time watching and evaluating young big leaguers who, because of the truncated season, will still be eligible for prospect lists at the end of the year. From a workflow standpoint, it makes sense for me to prioritize and complete my evaluations of these prospects before my time is divided between theoretical fall instructional ball on the pro side and college fall practices and scrimmages, which will have outsized importance this year due to the lack of both meaningful 2020 college stats and summer wood bat league looks because of COVID-19.

I started with the National League East; below is my look at the American League West, covering players who have appeared in big league games. The results of the changes made to player rankings and evaluations can be found over on The Board, though I try to provide more specific links throughout this post in case readers only care about one team.

Houston Astros

A rash of injuries has necessitated several pitching prospect promotions in Houston. Cristian Javier (ranked second in org) and Brandon Bielak (fifth) have been up the longest, and both have struggled in unexpected ways. Bielak, who threw lots of strikes in the minors, has wrestled with walks. He might be nibbling with his fastball because it’s getting crushed to the tune of a 90% in-zone contact rate and a .674 xSLG according to Baseball Savant. He’s been bullpenned for now, but I still consider him a likely No. 4/5 starter (45 FV), albeit one who probably has to pitch more heavily off his secondary stuff. Even though he’s walked more hitters than usual, Bielak has still shown a consistent ability to execute his changeup and breaking balls to good locations, especially against lefties.

Javier’s walk rate is actually better than usual, but he hasn’t missed bats at anything resembling his career norm, and a whopping nine of the 27 hits he’s surrendered this year have been home runs. That home run rate will likely regress across a larger sample, but if Javier is going to keep starting then he still needs to find a better way to deal with left-handed hitters because his splits have been pretty extreme. Because of an off day, Houston opted to skip Javier’s turn in the rotation over the weekend and use him out of the bullpen, where he had five strikeouts in two innings. I think he’s a candidate to move the ‘pen during the playoffs, and potentially long-term, and he projects as a high-leverage reliever if he does. Read the rest of this entry »

The smoke is everywhere. It is in everything. It is inescapable. Closing the windows can’t keep it out completely. No air purifier will absorb all of the particles of ash. It has been days now since I stepped outside without feeling it immediately: the heaviness, the scratching in my throat and my lungs and my eyes. And I’m one of the lucky ones. I’m healthy, and I’m indoors, and though the air here is full of the aftermath of fires, those fires are far away to the south, where the wind is blowing in from. There, the fires are still burning. They burn more by the hour. Thousands of people have been displaced, forced to take refuge in fairgrounds left empty by the pandemic, the fates of their homes and their livelihoods unknown. Thousands more still have to work in this state of uncertainty, with the air around them full of danger. Dozens are missing; dozens have been killed. The skies have gone deep red, then disappeared entirely. And this, we are told, is what we have to look forward to in the summers of the future: More burning. More toxic air. More displacement. More death.

Through it all, they keep playing baseball.

***

The image looks like it’s been doctored, like someone has run a bad filter over it. Everything has a blurry red-gray haze: the players, the cardboard fans, the grass. More than 790,000 acres of land in the state of Washington has been consumed by fire. In Seattle, though, the Mariners are, unexpectedly, in the midst of a playoff push. They are scheduled to play a double-header. The amount of fine particulate matter in the air measures over 200 micrograms per cubic meter. The roof being closed doesn’t help.

Almost a month ago, when the fires started burning, MLB clarified their position on the cancellation of games due to air quality. There is precedent for such a thing happening. Northwestern minor league teams have done it in recent years; so have teams in the Australian Baseball League. But as far as major league teams go, MLB has decided on a hands-off approach, leaving the decision of whether or not to play with team ownership. There has been much discussion of air-quality-related postponement over the past month; there has yet to be an actual postponement. Not when the skies above Oracle Park were thick with an eerie orange haze, not when ash blanketed the cars parked outside the Oakland Coliseum. And not in Seattle, where the Air Quality Index stayed firmly in the Unhealthy range throughout Monday. In Vancouver, Canada Post canceled all deliveries. It was unsafe, they said, to make postal workers walk around in this environment. Read the rest of this entry »

San Diego’s big move at the deadline involved acquiring Mike Clevinger. Of course, they made a number of smaller moves as well, adding relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Taylor Williams, catcher Jason Castro, and designated hitter/first baseman Mitch Moreland. All of those deals made a ton of sense, but the one that jumps out, the deal that makes you wonder what exactly is going through A.J. Preller’s head, involved giving up a good prospect in Taylor Trammell, along with a few other useful players, for a package headlined by 30-year-old catcher Austin Nola and his 377 big league plate appearances. I suspect it caused many to ask, “Who is Austin Nola?” and “Why was he so valuable?”

Before we get to Nola, let’s first acknowledge that our evaluations of Taylor Trammell might be a bit off. He graded out as a 55 Future Value-level prospect when traded from the Reds a year ago, but he fell to a 50 on the Padres list this season, projecting to be an average regular. That’s a very good prospect, and one of the top 100 in the game, but he isn’t a surefire starting left fielder. As such, it’s possible Trammell’s trade value is slightly lower than the prospect consensus. Of course, we also need to mention that the Padres sent multiple other players to Seattle in power reliever Andres Muñoz, potential role player Ty France, and 24-year-old catcher Luis Torrens, whose development has been slow since joining the Padres as a Rule 5 pick before the 2017 season. And while the Padres did get two other relievers in Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla, explaining the Nola-Trammell swap as resulting from a drop in Trammell’s value doesn’t quite do enough, as even with a dip, he still provides a decent amount of value and the other players included add more to the trade. To really explain the deal, we need to explain Austin Nola, a player any team could have signed less than two years ago.

Nola was a fifth-round pick by the Marlins back in 2012 and signed for $75,000. This is what Baseball America had to say in their report:

Austin Nola has been drafted twice already, never higher than the 31st round. He was playing at a higher level as a senior, having played with younger brother Aaron, a right-hander who should be a high draft pick in 2014. The 6-foot, 188-pound shortstop plays with confidence, especially on defense, where his hands are sure and his feet surprisingly nimble considering his below-average speed. He lacks impact with his bat, though he has improved his plate discipline and contact ability slightly over the course of his career. He’s a career .296 hitter who gives consistent effort and performance while lacking upside.

Already 22 years old when he was drafted, by 2014 Nola was playing in Double-A and putting up an average hitting line. In the Arizona Fall League, he captured the attention of Carson Cistulli and on the 2015 Marlins prospect list, he merited mention by Kiley McDaniel as “a solid utility type that’s just good enough at shortstop to play there for stretches while he hits liners gap to gap.” There was little to no power in his game and after a nondescript 2016 season, the erstwhile editor of FanGraphs noted that Nola “continued in 2015 to exhibit the sort defensive value and contact skills typical of the overlooked prospect. The almost complete lack of power in both cases, however, renders [Nola] unlikely to provide much value in the majors.” Read the rest of this entry »

After their huge seven-player swap on Sunday night, the Padres and Mariners returned to the same well and struck a smaller deal in the waning minutes before the trade deadline. Taylor Williams is headed to San Diego to join his former bullpen-mates Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla, while the Mariners receive a player to be named later — though the player has already reportedly been named: right-hander Matt Brash. The framework of the Williams deal was established during the negotiations for the bigger trade, but the trigger didn’t get pulled until just before the 4pm EST deadline.

Even though they had acquired Trevor Rosenthal, Adams, and Altavilla in the last few days, the Padres were still looking to improve their bullpen. The health of Adams’ knee is still a question mark and the inconsistent Altavilla is more of a work-in-progress than a sure-thing. In Williams, the Padres get a reliever who can contribute right away. He had been the Mariners de facto closer for much of this season and had shown some promise as a high leverage reliever. He had pushed his strikeout rate over 30% this season and lowered his FIP to 3.50. But he doesn’t come without a few warts. His command leaves a lot to be desired as he’s been prone to overthrowing in particularly stressful situations.

The biggest driver of Williams’ success this year has been an increased reliance on his wicked slider. He’s now throwing his breaking ball more than ever and it’s been extremely effective for him. Opposing batters are whiffing almost 50% of the time they offer at the pitch. What’s even more encouraging is he’s using it more often earlier in counts to steal called strikes while still burying it for whiffs with two strikes. Read the rest of this entry »

Catcher valuation, like Maria, is a difficult problem to solve. The San Diego Padres took a stab at it on Sunday night, trading for Seattle backstop Austin Nola in a seven-player swap. Jake Mailhot took a look at the calculus behind that decision, which completely revamped San Diego’s catching depth chart while also sending a big-name prospect to Seattle, which Eric Longenhagen covered.

But that wasn’t the entirety of the deal — not by a long-shot. A.J. Preller tacked on a swap of relievers in much the same way you or I might grab a pint of ice cream at the grocery store — “Well, since I’m already here, I might as well get this.” Relievers Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla are headed to San Diego as part of the Nola deal as well.

You’ve probably heard Austin Adams’ name before. It might even be the right Austin Adams — there’s another righty reliever by the same name in the Twins organization. You might not know just how excellent he is though. In a short 32-inning stint in the big leagues last year, he blew the competition away, striking out 40% of his opponents. He also walked 12%, which isn’t great, and had surgery to repair a torn ACL last September, so it’s not like he’s peak Craig Kimbrel without the name recognition. But he’s seriously great.

Adams sports the classic origin story for a good reliever: the Nationals traded him away for pitching help. In 2019 (!), they sent Adams to the Mariners for minor leaguer Nick Wells. Roughly a week later, the Mariners called him up, and after a debut featuring all three true outcomes — three strikeouts, a walk, and a home run in five batters — he rounded into being their best bullpen weapon. Read the rest of this entry »

Sunday’s seven-player deal between the Mariners and Padres was the deadline’s biggest trade so far, impacting this year’s playoff race and both teams’ roster construction for years to come. While the most immediate effects will be seen in San Diego, the Mariners continued to collect talented, young players with their spyglass fixed on a long-term rebuild by acquiring Taylor Trammell, Ty France, Andres Muñoz and Luis Torrens (covered here) in a trade centered around catcher Austin Nola.

The headline prospect of the package is Trammell, a 23-year-old 50 FV prospect (meaning I expect him to be a an everyday player who generates around 2 to 2.5 annual WAR — commensurate with a good everyday player — over the course of his pre-free agency seasons) who was with San Diego’s big league club throughout spring training, then played during summer camp intrasquads, and has since been at the Padres’ alternate training site at the University of San Diego. Trammell spent all of 2019 at Double-A, albeit with two different orgs because he was also part of last year’s massive, three-team Trevor Bauer deadline deal that sent Trammell from Cincinnati to San Diego; Seattle is his third organization in 13 months.

Trammell is ranked toward the top of the 50 FV tier of prospects, 68th in all of baseball, because a) he’s fairly close to the big leagues and b) he has a few core attributes that I consider especially important. Chiefly, Trammell has a good idea of the strike zone, and he’s a good athlete who has good on-field makeup/competitiveness. I know the latter two sound hokey and perhaps antiquated, but they do drive some of my thinking related to prospect floor or certainty because, anecdotally, I think good athletes who try hard tend to turn into good players.

A career .270/.363/.406 hitter, Trammell has the ball/strike recognition (12% career walk rate) and contact potential to one day be a leadoff man. I say contact potential because I don’t think his bat is quite as polished as it appeared to be at the lower levels. He’s a short-levered hitter who can turn on pitches on the inner third of the plate, and he grinds out long, tough at-bats, but while Trammell has some all-fields spray ability, he struggled with velocity up and away from him during the spring and summer intrasquads. To my eye, he has done some tinkering with his hitting footwork, which may have been an attempt to tease out more in-game power, though I’m skeptical that will ever be part of the profile. I think a contact/on base-oriented approach fits best with Trammell’s swing and physical ability, though admittedly punting on his power potential (those Futures Game rockets he hit a few years ago were highly unusual) caps his ceiling. It’s tough to be an impact player without thump, which is part of why I have a solid regular FV on Trammell rather than a big, star-level one. Read the rest of this entry »

The flurry of deals made by the San Diego Padres on Sunday culminated with a massive trade with the Seattle Mariners. The headlining player headed to Southern California is catcher Austin Nola, along with two relievers, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla. Ben Clemens will address the newest additions to the Padres bullpen and Eric Longenhagen will have the analysis of the prospect/recently-prospect haul the Mariners received from the Padres — Taylor Trammell, Andres Muñoz, and Ty France — a little later this morning. The fourth player headed to the Northwest, Luis Torrens, is likely to take Nola’s place on the Mariners roster as their starting catcher.

With the Padres acquiring Jason Castro from the Angels earlier in the day, the addition of Nola completes an overhaul of the Padres catching corps. As a group, the Padres catchers had put up a collective .146/.228/.291 slash line, good for a 45 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. They weren’t the worst hitting group of backstops in the majors this year, but it was a clear need for the Padres, who have their eyes on a deep postseason run.

Castro is a fine offensive upgrade in his own right but the easy answer to the Padres problem was to simply add the best hitting catcher in the majors in 2020. That’s exactly what they’ve done in adding Nola. His .380 wOBA ekes out J.T. Realmuto by just a single point, his 145 wRC+ is six points higher than the star Phillies backstop, and they’re tied with 1.2 WAR apiece. Read the rest of this entry »

When the league announced an expanded playoff format on the eve of the season, the Blue Jays were clear beneficiaries. In the old, five-team format, we gave them just a 9.7% chance of reaching the postseason; the cream of the AL crop had a stranglehold on those spots. With eight spots and only six teams in the top tier (New York, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland), however, there was more space for interlopers. The Jays’ playoff odds in the new format opened the season at 29.8%.

With roughly half the season in the books, their odds have only increased. After Wednesday’s games, the Jays looked like a clear favorite for the final spot in the playoffs:

Still, as evidenced by the fact that their odds still hover at only 65%, they don’t have anything sewn up. Their pitching, in particular, has been a weak point. Hyun Jin Ryu has been as good as advertised holding down the rotation, but you can’t make a rotation out of one pitcher. Nate Pearson has struggled in his first taste of the big leagues and is currently on the Injured List, Matt Shoemaker has a lat strain, and Trent Thornton has hardly pitched this year due to injury. Piecing together the 31 remaining games of the season looked like a challenge.

To that end, the Blue Jays brought in reinforcements today, acquiring Taijuan Walker from the Mariners. In return, they’re sending a player to be named later. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirmed that the player will be outside the 60-man player pool of players eligible to be traded in-season this year, which means we won’t officially know who it is until the offseason, but the Jays have no shortage of interesting prospects. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a big week for the Seager family. For the first time in the careers of 26-year-old Corey Seager, who debuted in the majors with the Dodgers in 2015, and his 32-year-old brother Kyle, who debuted with the Mariners in 2011, the pair crossed paths in a regular season game. What’s more, they put themselves in the history books by becoming the first pair of brothers to homer in the same game for opposing teams since 2001, and just the ninth to do so in MLB history. Both brothers are off to strong starts this year after solid but unexceptional 2019 seasons.

Bad timing accounts for the fact that the brothers had never played a regular season game against each other until this week. Their respective teams played an interleague series in Los Angeles in April 2015, but Corey, the Dodgers’ first-round pick three years earlier, had just begun his second stint at Double-A Tulsa. When the Dodgers visited Safeco Field in August 2018, he was on the injured list, having not only undergone Tommy John surgery on May 4 of that year but also arthroscopic surgery on his left hip labrum on August 7.

MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick described the brothers’ first regular-season meeting as bittersweet, because the coronavirus pandemic prevented parents Jeff and Jody from making the trip from North Carolina to join them either at Dodger Stadium, where they played on Monday and Tuesday, or Safeco Field, where they played Wednesday and Thursday. The dueling homers occurred in the series opener on Monday, with Corey clubbing a towering 425-foot shot off Justin Dunn with two on in the third inning; dig the looks on the pair’s faces as little brother rounds the bases:

As you can see, an inning later, Kyle countered with a 405-foot solo homer off Ross Stripling, the second of three that the Dodgers righty would serve up in that frame as the Mariners overcome a 6-2 lead. Even so, the Dodgers came back to win the wild slugfest, 11-9. Read the rest of this entry »

Take a glance at the early season position player WAR leaders and you’ll find Mike Yastrzemski leading all of MLB, making his grandfather proud. Next you’ll find José Ramirez on his quest to show that last year’s struggles were just a blip. The player with the third-highest WAR in this young campaign is Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis, who was leading the category yesterday. After a sparkling debut last September, Lewis is proving that his hot start wasn’t a fluke.

With another two yesterday, Lewis has now collected hits in all seven games this season and has strung together five multi-hit performances in a row. All told, he’s hit .448/.500/.655 this year and owns a .320/.355/.610 line in his young career. His historic September included blasting home runs in his first three major league games, becoming just the second player in history to accomplish the feat. He would go on to hit three more through the first 10 games of his career.

But that success came with some glaring red flags. He posted a 38.7% strikeout rate last year, and it is only a touch lower so far this season. His tendency to swing and miss often only confirmed the skepticism some had about his hit tool. His swinging strike rate is a bit lower this year (from 17.7% to 15.2%), and his underlying plate discipline stats look a little better — a lower overall swing rate, particularly on pitches out of the zone — but his high strikeout rate will likely follow him throughout his career. Thriving in the majors with such a high swinging strike rate is difficult but not impossible. Bryce Harper ran a 15.3% swinging strike rate last season while posting a 125 wRC+. The difference for Lewis is that many of those whiffs are coming with two strikes, driving up his strikeout rate. Harper can survive with such a high swinging strike rate because he’s aggressive early in the count but adjusts his approach with two strikes. Read the rest of this entry »