Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

While esteemed FanGraphs writer Michael Baumann has spent this season anchored to South Jersey, the same can’t be said about the right-handed pitcher of the same name. Since that linked interview from July 2023, pitcher Mike Baumann (hereafter referred to as “Baumann”) has thrown 60 innings with a 5.10 ERA, with his 49 strikeouts, 26 walks, and 11 home runs producing a similar 5.39 FIP. Nothing special, and certainly nothing either Baumann is too happy about.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re not a Mariners fan, you maybe haven’t noticed how good of a season Collin Snider is having. While most of the attention — at least pitching-wise — has gone to Seattle’s stellar starting rotation, the 28-year-old right-hander has quietly logged a 1.01 ERA and a 2.07 FIP over 27 relief appearances comprising 26 2/3 innings. Moreover, he has fanned 30 batters while issuing just six free passes and allowing 22 hits, only one of which has left the yard.

Snider was cut loose twice over the offseason, first by the Kansas City Royals, with whom he’d spent parts of two mostly nondescript seasons, and then by the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had claimed him off waivers. The Mariners signed him off the scrap heap in early February, and they’re certainly glad they did. The sample size is admittedly small — again, he’s made just 27 appearances — but the results have nonetheless been noteworthy. To little fanfare, Snider has been superb.

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David Laurila: You’ve obviously taken a huge step forward this year. Did changing organizations play a role in that?

Collin Snider: “I think changing orgs had a big role in it. I had a meeting in spring training with the pitching staff here, and they showed me the difference in my numbers pitching ahead in the count and pitching behind in the count. There was a substantial difference in good results versus bad results. From that point on it was more of just, ‘Get your stuff over the plate early and often.’ My stuff plays well enough that I didn’t have to really try to do anything else after that.” Read the rest of this entry »

About two weeks ago, Kyle Kishimoto wrote about a shift in the AL West race as the Astros, who had been trailing the Mariners all year, pulled level in the division. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t revisit a topic so soon, especially because Kyle was himself issuing an update to his own previous appraisal of Seattle’s success. But between Kyle’s two posts, the Mariners blew a 10-game division lead to Houston. And in the two weeks since then, well at the risk of steering directly into stereotype, let’s take a look at a graph.

On the morning of August 5, when Kyle’s second piece ran, the Mariners were still actually slight favorites to win the AL West. In the ensuing 15 days, their division title odds dropped by 43.4 percentage points, to just 10.8%. Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs in any fashion are now just 16.4%, which is down 41.6 points. Only three other teams have seen their playoff odds move even 20 points in either direction in that time. One is the Padres. The other two are the Astros and Royals, two of the major beneficiaries of the Mariners’ ongoing slide. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. It’s an incredible time to be a baseball fan, particularly one who isn’t tied to a single team or division. There are three tight division races, and both wild cards hold some intrigue. Some of the brightest stars of the game are playing incredibly well right now. The A’s are on a kelly-green-clad respectability streak that is both improbable and delightful. The White Sox are fun to watch for their ever-evolving pursuit of futility (more on that below). There’s no time for August doldrums when the games are this exciting. So no more talking vaguely about what a great week this was; let’s get right to it. And thanks, as always, to ESPN’s Zach Lowe for the format I’m borrowing here.

1. Barry Would Never

Perhaps the least likely story of the season, on an individual level, is Tyler Fitzgerald, who has turned into one of the great offensive forces in the game overnight. After putting up average offensive numbers as he climbed through the minors across four seasons plus the lost COVID year, he has established an everyday role on the Giants and unexpectedly caught fire this season. He’s now hitting home runs faster than I can count and getting his name in Giants history next to Barry Bonds for his power feats. (As an aside, this clip of Bonds and Greg Maddux discussing an old at-bat is amazing, and I highly recommend it.)
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Bryce Miller has improved on his 2023 rookie season with the Seattle Mariners. Especially notable are his ERA (3.46 versus last year’s 4.32), FIP (3.70 versus 3.98), and OPS against opposite-handed hitters (.685 OPS versus .917). At the same time, many of his numbers have been strikingly similar. When I spoke to the 25-year-old right-hander at the end of July — he’s since made two starts — his win-loss record and average fastball velocity were identical to last year’s marks, as were his FB% and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate differed by just a few percentage points.

I cited those similarities to the righty, then proceeded to ask him what differentiates this season’s version of Bryce Miller from last year’s.

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Bryce Miller: “I think that type of stuff is very similar, but the lefty-righty splits are quite a bit different. Last year, lefties batted over .300 against me. This year, it’s around .215. I think the addition of the splitter has been big, and I’ve also been locating better. If you look at the heat maps from last year, a lot of the fastballs were in the middle of the plate. This year, I’ve gotten them [elevated] a little better for the most part. So getting the heaters up and the splitters down has helped me out a lot with the lefties. That’s really been the main thing.”

David Laurila: Why is the splitter so much better than the changeup you were throwing? Read the rest of this entry »

Thomas White is having an impressive first full professional season. Drafted 35th overall last year by the Miami Marlins out of Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, the 19-year-old left-hander has a 2.84 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, and a 29.6% strikeout rate over 76 innings between Low-A Jupiter and High-A Beloit. His late-May promotion to the higher of those two levels came for a simple reason. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen explained when assigning him a 45+ in early June, White’s stuff was simply too good for the Florida State League.

I had an opportunity to talk to the promising youngster when Beloit played at West Michigan earlier this week, and one of the things I made it a point to learn about was the mindset that augments his arsenal. I began by asking him how much of a role analytics are playing in his development.

“I’m starting to learn more about the actual numbers and how all that stuff works,” White told me. “At the end of the day, I like to just go out and get outs — I’ve never been a big tech guy — but I definitely know a lot more about my pitches now that I have access to all the data. So, I’m still learning, and I want to learn, but the best measurement for me is how hitters react to them.”

The pitches that hitters are reacting to include a four-seam fastball that has been averaging, according to White, 95.6 mph and 17.5 inches of vertical ride. He is also throwing a two-seam changeup and a sweeper-slider. Currently in the works, but not yet part of his repertoire, is “a shorter gyro pitch,” either a cutter or a hard slider. Read the rest of this entry »

On June 17, I wrote about the Mariners’ consistent success in overperforming their run differential and winning close games. The day after, they won their fourth game in a row, raising their record to 44-31 and their division win probability to 86.3%. Sitting 10 games above the second-place Astros, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seattle would claim the division crown. But six weeks later, the landscape looks far different. The Mariners blew that 10-game lead in just 24 games, the quickest that any team has ever surrendered such a large divisional lead, and the Astros even pulled ahead for a bit. The Mariners are now back in first, but just one game separates the two clubs.

The Mariners have gone 15-23 since their June 18 win that brought their division odds to an apex (12-23 if you take out a sweep of the White Sox, who are currently riding a 20-game losing streak). Some of this regression was to be expected – specifically, an offense that seemed to always find the timely hits stopped doing so. Seattle’s .388 BABIP in high-leverage situations fell to .225 over the past six weeks, and as small-sample good luck turned to small-sample bad luck, the team’s run scoring cratered. The Mariners have seen small improvements in low- and medium-leverage situations thanks to a recent offensive outburst — they’ve scored 6.3 runs per game over their nine games since they acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena — but it hasn’t been enough to fully right the ship. Their 94 wRC+ over their cold stretch and 95 wRC+ overall rank last among playoff hopefuls. Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Wells is doing more than just establishing himself as a solid everyday catcher in his first full big-league season. Thanks in part to a hot July that saw him slug five home runs and put up a .941 OPS, he’s been batting cleanup for the New York Yankees. The 25-year-old left-handed-hitting backstop isn’t exactly on his way to becoming the next Yogi Berra or Bill Dickey, but what he’s doing is notable nonetheless.

In the present-day iteration of the Bronx Bombers, slotting into the four-hole means following Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup. Is it easier or harder to hit directly behind a pair of players who are on track for the Hall of Fame? I asked Wells that question last weekend at Fenway Park.

“I think it’s easier or harder depending on the pressure you put on yourself,” replied Wells, whom the Yankees drafted 28th overall in 2020 out of the University of Arizona. “If you look at it like you’re expected to do what they’re doing, then there’s going to be a lot of pressure to perform. Being able to stay in your zone and know what you do well takes the pressure off.”

That he’s not about to match the exploits of the team’s dynamic duo is stating the obvious. Judge has 41 home runs and a 216 wRC+ in the current campaign, while comparably a mere mortal (can a superstar be a more mortal?) Soto has 27 home runs and a 187 wRC+. Wells understands that he isn’t at their level. At the same time, he’s not about to put strict limits on his long-ball potential.

“They’re going to hit 40-plus homers every single year, and that’s not never been me,” the humble-yet-confident catcher told me. “I mean, who knows? It could possibly happen, but right now my is to keep the lineup moving. That’s where I’m at right now.”

Wells’s overall numbers on the season include eight home runs, a 116 wRC+ over 253 plate appearances, and 2.5 WAR.

Eric Longenhagen is bullish on his potential. When our Yankees Top Prospects list went up in December, my colleague described a swing “beautifully connected from the ground up,” adding that the “blend of his barrel control and the natural lift in his swing gives him a potent contact and power combination.” Despite concerns about his defense — primarily his throwing arm — Longenhagen assigned Wells a 50 FV.

His work behind the plate has been more than adequate. While his throwing remains a bit below average, Wells is plus-six in Framing Runs Above Average and he has seven Defensive Runs Saved. The strides he’s made defensively are laudable.

“I believe in my ability to get better every time I catch,” said Wells. “That’s been the biggest key, just believing. It’s led me to where I’m at now, and hopefully it continues to lead me into even better catching, better numbers, and more wins.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bobby Richardson went 1 for 17 against Eli Grba.

Doug Gwosdz went 1 for 11 against Steve Carlton.

Mark Grudzielanek went 9 for 11 against Tim Hudson.

Doug Mientkiewicz went 7 for 11 against Bronson Arroyo.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia went 7 for 15 against Jeremy Guthrie.

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I recently talked to a pitcher who described what he considers the worst pitch he’s thrown all season, and while I haven’t yet shared his telling — stay tuned — the conversation did lead me down the same path with Tarik Skubal prior to last night’s Tigers-Royals game at Comerica Park. He cited a pitch that Hunter Renfroe stroked for a run-scoring extra-base the previous night.

“I threw a changeup that cut like crazy,” Skubal told me. “Whenever I do that, I usually throw the ball out. I didn’t throw the ball out. On the next pitch, I gave up a double down the line on a changeup that cut again. I should have thrown it out, but instead, I was like, ‘Ah, what are the odds I cut it twice in a row?’”

Skubal explained that of all his pitches, the changeup is most-impacted by a difference in baseballs. Moreover, not all baseballs are created equal. As the Tigers ace put it, “Some balls are wound a little different — the seams are a little different — so the seam effect isn’t consistent. I rely on a lot of seam effect with that pitch specifically.”

Skubal went on to say that the pitch he threw to Renfroe cut enough that it registered as a slider. In reality, it was a changeup delivered with a baseball that he normally would have thrown out — but regretfully didn’t.

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A quiz:

Fergie Jenkins has the most career wins (284) by a pitcher born in Canada. Which Canadian-born pitcher has the second-most wins? (A hint: He won a World Series ring in the current century.)

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

A reminder that SABR’s 52nd annual convention will be held in downtown Minneapolis beginning this Wednesday and running through Saturday. Featured speakers include Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and Twins GM Thad Levine. More information can be found here.

Denny Lemaster, a left-handed pitcher whose MLB career spanned the 1962-1972 season, died on July 24 at age 85. LeMaster went 17-11 with the Milwaukee Braves in 1964 and later played with the Houston Astros and Montreal Expos.

Reyes Moronta, who had been pitching in the Mexican League after playing for four MLB teams from 2017-2023, died in a motor vehicle accident this past week at age 31 (per Baseball Player Passings). The Santo Domingo native made 136 of his 177 big-league appearances with the San Francisco Giants.

Jim Weber, the longtime play-by-play announcer for the Toledo Mud Hens, has died at age 78. He began calling games for Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate in 1975.

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The answer to the quiz Ryan Dempster, with 132 wins. The Sechelt, British Columbia native won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2013.

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When the Seattle Mariners acquired Justin Turner at the trade deadline, they brought on board a 39-year-old veteran of 16 big-league seasons who is, for all intents and purposes, a hitting guru in uniform. Reputation-wise, he has been akin to an extra hitting coach in the later part of his career.

I asked Mariners manager Scott Servais if veterans of Turner’s ilk can positively impact young hitters when they join a new team.

“Absolutely,” said Servais. “I’ve often said that as coaches and managers you talk to players and try to lead them in a certain direction, but players are always going to listen to players more than they listen to others — and certainly to a guy that has a track record like Justin Turner has.”

Following up, I asked the ninth-year skipper if he could give an example of a player who came to one of his teams and made an especially-meaningful impact. It wasn’t a position player he named, but rather a pitcher.

“When we signed Robbie Ray [prior to the 2022 season],” said Servais. “We’re seeing the maturing of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. A lot of what Robbie brought, those guys have taken and run with. You see it happen all over the league… It’s welcome. Players like it. I enjoy it. If you have a guy like that who carries so much respect amongst the group, it’s a way for me to funnel messaging through.”

Servais proceeded to add an entertaining caveat:

“If he agrees. If he doesn’t agree, that’s another conversation. Those have happened before too. But it is another voice.”

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Kia Tigers have the KBO’s best record, at 61-42-2. The Kiwoom Heroes have the KBO’s worst record, at 45-57.

Hyun Jin Ryu is 6-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 115 innings with the Hanwha Eagles. The 37-year-old left-hander spent seven seasons with the KBO club before pitching in MLB from 2013-2023.

Mel Rojas Jr. is slashing .338/.433/.593 with 25 home runs in 480 plate appearances for the KBO’s KT Wiz. The 34-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves prospect last played stateside in 2017.

Jeter Downs signed with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks earlier this week. A first-round pick by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 who was later part of the Mookie Betts trade between the Red Sox-Dodgers, the 26-year-old infielder was released by the Yankees on July 30.

Shugo Maki is slashing .274/.333/.482 with 16 home runs in 363 plate appearances for the Yokohama BayStars. A three-time NPB All-Star, the 26-year-old second baseman has stolen nine bases without getting caught.

The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have NPB’s best record, at 62-31. The Saitama Seibu Lions have NPB’s worst record, at 29-64.

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I’ve mentioned Hiroto Takahashi a handful of times this season, and for good reason: The 21-year-old Chunichi Dragons right-hander has been NPB’S most-dominant pitcher. In 13 starts, Takahashi has a record of 8-1 to go with a 0.48 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 93 innings. Moreover, he has surrendered just 58 hits, none of which have left the yard.

Wanting to know more about him, I asked one of his 2023 World Baseball Classic teammates for a snapshot scouting report.

“I haven’t faced him, but velocity-wise he throws really hard,“ Red Sox DH Masataka Yoshida told me prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. “The breaking ball is elite level, too. He’s got different [pitches] in his arsenal that can be used as a put-away pitch. He definitely has the potential to come over here in the future.”

In search of another perspective, I also checked in with my friend Jim Allen (@JballAllen).

“He’s the real deal,” the Tokyo-based baseball scribe replied via email. “He lacks the velocity that makes MLB GMs drool like they do over [Roki] Sasaki, but his secondary pitches are probably better. I don’t have his max, but my guess would be 98 mph. He sits at 95.”

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Don Leshnock faced five batters in a scoreless inning for the Detroit Tigers against the California Angels on June 7, 1972. The southpaw from Youngstown, Ohio retired Leo Cardenas on a groundout, then sandwiched singles by Sandy Alomar Sr. and Mickey Rivers with punch-outs of Nolan Ryan and Vada Pinson. It was his only big-league game. Prior to that outing, Leshnock hurled a no-hitter while playing for the Carolina League’s Rocky Mount Leafs in 1970.

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FARM NOTES

Travis Bazzana hit his first professional home run on Wednesday as the High-A Lake County Captains lambasted the Beloit Sky Carp 17-5. The 21-year-old native of New South Wales, Australia was drafted first overall this summer by the Cleveland Guardians.

The Minnesota Twins promoted their top-rated prospect, Walker Jenkins, to High-A Cedar Rapids earlier this week. Drafted fifth overall last year out of a Southport, North Carolina high school, the 19-year-old outfielder had been slashing .273/.404/.413 with three home runs and a 139 wRC+ with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels.

Cole Carrigg is slashing .284/.360/.472 with 10 home runs and a 133 wRC+, and has swiped 36 bases in 44 attempts, with the High-A Spokane Indians. Drafted in the second round last year out of San Diego State University, the 22-year-old infielder/outfielder is No. 25 on our Colorado Rockies Top Prospects list.

Keiverson Ramirez has a 4-1 record to go with a 0.71 ERA and a 2.39 FIP over 38 innings in the Dominican Summer League. The 18-year-old right-hander from Valencia, Venezuela was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals in January.

The Tigers won the Florida Complex League championship on Monday by defeating the Pirates 12-1. Detroit’s rookie-level affiliate was managed by Salvador Paniagua.

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My writeup of the trade deadline deal that sent a pair of New York Yankees prospects to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Mark Leiter Jr. included reports on on the promising youngsters from Eric Longenhagen. My colleague isn’t the only source I solicited a perspective from. I also reached out to someone who has seen all of Ben Cowles’s games this season, and the majority of Jack Neely’s.

“Cowles shows confidence and comfortability at all three infield positions (other than first base),” Somerset Patriots broadcaster Steven Cusumano said of the 24-year-old infielder, who had a 140 wRC+ with the Double-A affiliate. “I wouldn’t say that he stuck out at any one over the other; he plays all three very, very well. He is as consistent a player as they come, including defensively, in spite of how much inconsistency there would be in what position he played every day. Also worth mentioning, he’s as good a baserunner as you’ll find. That quickness does show in the field from time-to-time and he has excellent baseball instincts.

“Neely profiles as a back-end reliever: big and intimidating presence with two excellent pitches,” he said of the 24-year-old right-handed reliever who had a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings with Somerset. “Fastball (94-97) and a really good slider (82-25). Huge frame physically, a lot of tenacity on the mound and one of the most confident players you’ll ever encounter.”

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I also solicited quotes for a trade that I didn’t write about. The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Nick Yorke from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-hander Quinn Priester, and I asked two of the 22-year-old infield prospect’s former teammates for their thoughts on him.

“He’s a good player, man,” Boston infielder Jamie Westbrook said of Yorke, whom Eric Longehagen has assigned a 45 FV. “He’s got good bat-to-ball. He’s got some pop. He drives the ball to right field well. He plays a good second base and has also started to play the outfield this year. When I was with Yorkie for a short period of time in [Triple-A] Worcester, he had good at-bats and moved the ball around. I would hate to put a comp on him, but he’s a solid player.”

“Outside of the player he is, he is one of the best friends I’ve had in the organization,” said Red Sox infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela. “He’s’s a tremendous person. He’s always there for you as a teammate. And he’s obviously a good hitter. I’ve seen him through the years, and he’s getting better and better. Hopefully he will get the chance there to play in the major leagues.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Over The Monster’s Maura McGurk went to a Decemberists concert and proceeded to wonder what’s next for the Red Sox now that the trade deadline has passed.

Trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi utilized his changeup more frequently than he had in Toronto while fanning 11 batters in his Houston Astros debut. Chandler Rome has the story at The Athletic (subscription required).

The Athletic’s Zack Meisel wrote about CC Sabathia’s journey from unpolished draft pick to Cleveland Hall of Famer (subscription required).

Ron LeFlore made his major league debut with the Detroit Tigers on August 1, 1974, one year after he’d been released from Jackson State Prison, where he served a sentence for armed robbery. Adam Henig wrote about it for The Metro Times.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Chicago White Sox have a record of 27-86 following their worst-in-franchise-history 19th straight loss last night. The 1962 New York Mets, who infamously finished 40-120, were 30-83 through 113 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a big-league-best 46-4 this year when outhitting their opponents. The Detroit Tigers, at 40-4, have the second-best record when outhitting their opponents.

Nine consecutive Kansas City Royals batters had hits in the seventh inning of Friday night’s 9-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. The nine straight hits tied a franchise record that had been set in a May 7, 1980 game against the Chicago White Sox.

Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has gone 16-for-22 in his last six games against the White Sox.

George Kirby hasn’t allowed more than three walks in any of his 79 big-league starts. The Seattle Mariners right-hander is the only pitcher in the modern era with at least 50 starts and more games started than walks allowed (56).

Max Scherzer has has 3,405 strikeouts and 112 HBPs.
Justin Verlander has 3,393 strikeouts and 113 HBPs.

In 1980, the Billy Martin-managed Oakland Athletics had five starters throw 211 or more innings and combine to throw 93 complete games. Bob Lacey, who made 46 of his 47 appearances as a reliever, threw a complete-game shutout in his lone start.

Players born on today’s date include Gabe Gabler, whose big-league career comprised three pinch-hit appearances for the Chicago Cubs in 1958. The St. Louis native fanned all three times.

Also born on today’s date was Ray Oyler, who started 70 games at shortstop for the 1968 World Series champion Detroit Tigers despite slashing just .135/.213/.186 over the course of the season. The slick-fielding, offensively-inept infielder had a sacrifice bunt in his lone Fall Classic plate appearance.

On today’s date in 1934, the New York Giants scored 11 runs in the ninth inning while routing the Philadelphia Phillies 21-4 in the second game of a Saturday double-header. Right-hander Reggie Grabowski incurred all of the damage in his lone inning of work, while Mel Ott finished 4-for-4 with two homers, a double, and six runs scored.

On August 5, 2001, the Cleveland Indians rallied from a 14-2 seventh-inning deficit to beat the Seattle Mariners 15-14. Omar Vizquel’s two-out, bases-clearing triple in the ninth tied it, while Jolbert Cabrera’s walk-off single plated Kenny Lofton in the 11th to cap the comeback.

Another year, another frenetic trade deadline. This year’s bonanza was light on top talent relative to recent years, but it made up for that in volume. With tight races in both leagues and plenty of teams looking to shore up clear weaknesses, it was a seller’s market, particularly when it came to pitching. Now that the dust has settled, I’m here to hand out some judgment.

These are going to be inherently subjective, but that doesn’t mean I don’t put a little rigor into my system. I’m focusing on two things here when I look at individual teams. First, and more important: Did a team’s moves match up with its needs? This is easy to gauge, and since it’s the whole point of the deadline, it carries the most wait. Second: How’d teams do on the trades they made? I think this part is inherently more subjective – there’s no unified prospect ranking or database where we can see how traded players will do the rest of the season, and we’re working with less information than teams have. That doesn’t mean I’m not crediting teams for trades I like or docking them for moves I don’t, just that I’m weighting it slightly less than the first category. Let’s dive right in.
Read the rest of this entry »

You didn’t really think teams were done swapping relievers after Friday and Saturday, did you? If you thought maybe they were tapped out for late relief help on Sunday and Monday, well, you thought wrong! If your bullpen doesn’t look like there are enough dudes to capture Helm’s Deep, you’re woefully short-armed.

The San Diego Padres acquired LHRP Tanner Scott and RHRP Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins for LHSP Robby Snelling, RHSP Adam Mazur, 3B/2B Graham Pauley, and 3B/SS Jay Beshears

As one of baseball’s elite closers on an expiring contract, Tanner Scott was arguably the best short-term option available among relievers. His walk rate has peeked up a little to the numbers of the bad old days, but his first-strike percentage has stayed firmly in positive territory, which is an important indicator of where walk numbers will settle. Scott is likely to help the Padres in a very tight NL Wild Card race, but he’ll probably be even more important for them in the playoffs if they can get there. In San Diego, he teams up with Robert Suarez to asphyxiate opposing lineups late in the games. As far as elite closers who occasionally walk a few too many batters go, Scott is one of the less stressful of the genre, because he’s so hard to hit against with any authority, giving him a good shot at escaping jams following those free passes.

Bryan Hoeing is a sinker/slider reliever who has never quite clicked, as he’s never really been able to induce many swings-and-misses, nor has he mastered the art of inducing weak groundballs. He strikes me mostly as a depth guy who has plenty of years of club control left, and barring a breakout, he seems destined to be shuffled back and forth between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso a lot over the next few years. This trade is about Scott. Read the rest of this entry »