Many years ago, there was a bar in Columbus, Ohio. It’s since been closed and razed after its owner, a serially corrupt lobbyist who later served time for his role in “a food service bribery scheme,”went to jail for owing some $300,000 in back taxes. When I was a young man, my friends and I would descend on this bar once a week in order to wreck house at pub trivia under our collective nom de guerre: Gorilla Bizkit.
One of the recurring theme rounds for this trivia game was called “Paxton or Pullman?” The host would give the title of a movie, and each team would have to say whether the film featured Bill Paxton, Bill Pullman, both, or neither. I remember Paxton-Pullman confusion being a minor internet meme back in humanity’s digital golden age, when we — green and callow as a budding flower — saw fit to spend our days determining whether a hot dog was a sandwich. (Among other questions of great teleological import.) Read the rest of this entry »
Drake Baldwin is one of baseball’s most-promising prospects. A third-round pick in 2022 out of Missouri State University, the 23-year-old catcher in the Atlanta Braves organization is No. 11 on our Top 100. His left-handed stroke is a big reason why. Flashing plus power, Baldwin bashed 16 home runs last season while logging a 119 wRC+ between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett.
He could have pursued a career in another sport. All-State in hockey as a Wisconsin prep, the sturdily-built Madison West High School product potted 43 goals as a junior, then found the back of the net 46 times as a senior.
Why did he choose the diamond, and not the ice?
“Hockey recruiting is a little later, so I didn’t actually talk to many colleges,” Baldwin said of his decision. “I think I had a chance, and the [junior hockey] route was interesting too, but being able to go right from high school to college and start working on a degree was a more straightforward path to where I wanted to be. I mean, I love both sports. I wish I could play both of them. Baseball just came first.” Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the start of spring training games, the charms of Tigers reliever John Brebbia, whether MLB’s uniform pants were always semi-transparent, and Shohei Ohtani’s parallel parking skills. Then they preview the 2025 Seattle Mariners (27:37) with Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, and the 2025 Cincinnati Reds (1:12:53) with The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans.
The Seattle Mariners currently have one of baseball’s best farm systems, and its strength differs markedly from that of the big league roster. Pitching-rich at the major league level, it’s Mariners position player prospects who populate the top tier of our rankings. That’s welcome news — at least on paper — for a Seattle team that has recently excelled at keeping runs off the board, but has too often struggled to score.
Justin Toole is front and center in the organization’s quest to graduate productive bats into the parent club’s lineup. Brought on as director of player development following the 2022 season, the 38-year-old Council Bluffs, Iowa native has both the background and the acumen to help make that happen. Prior to coming to Seattle, Toole played seven professional seasons, then served four years as a minor league hitting coach, followed by three as a major league hitting analyst. All of his pre-Mariners experience came with Cleveland.
Toole discussed several of the system’s most promising prospects prior to heading to Arizona for the start of spring training.
———
David Laurila: What is the current strength of the system?
Justin Toole: “From a player development standpoint, I think the strength is the individuality with how we handle our players. When we get people into our system, we figure out their strengths, we figure out their weaknesses, we help them understand their identity. We work with our players to get a feel for where they think they are, and where they want to go.
“Our group has done an unbelievable job of creating good player plans that are clear, that are are easy to follow. They’re simple. I think that’s kind of been the strength of our player development group. Of course, any good player development group is going to be good because of the scouting group. They bring in good players, players that fit what we want to do, and who we want to be.” Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s get this out of the way at the start: The Mariners are pretty good. Their starting pitching is incredible, and some projections systems even think they have a top-10 offense. This is not a Pirates situation, where a core led by Paul Skenes on a league-minimum contract is somehow projected to finish well under .500. In Seattle, the pieces are almost all there. Sadly for fans, “almost all there” might well define this era of Mariners baseball.
The latest expression of Seattle’s complacency came last week, when the team brought back Jorge Polanco on a one year, $7.75 million contract. (The deal is pending a physical.) According to a report from Adam Jude at the Seattle Times, Polanco’s signing means the “Mariners’ roster is effectively set.” For those counting at home, $3.5 million for 37-year-old Donovan Solano, a trade for Austin Shenton, and the Polanco deal represent the entirety of Seattle’s offseason roster upgrades. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game in 2023 and 2024; they missed it by two games in 2021. They are always good but never great. And the team — or at least ownership — appears totally fine with that. Read the rest of this entry »
On August 18 in Colorado, Ha-Seong Kim led off first base, then dived back to beat a pickoff attempt. He tore the labrum in his right shoulder, and that was the last time we saw him play in 2024. After a failed rehab attempt, Kim underwent surgery in October, and he won’t be ready to play again until sometime between April and June. Just as uncertain: Where exactly Kim will be suiting up when he returns. There’s no doubt about his skill. Over the past four years, Kim has spent time at second, short, and third, and neither DRS nor FRV has ever rated him as below average at any of those spots. He needed a year to adjust on offense after arriving from the KBO in 2021, but over the past three seasons, he’s run a 106 wRC+. That ranks 13th among shortstops, and over the same period, his 10.5 WAR ranks 11th.
Kim entered free agency after both he and the Padres declined their ends of a mutual option, and he came in at ninth on our Top 50 Free Agents. According to the projections, he’ll command a four- or five-year deal with an AAV in the neighborhood of $19 million. However, the shoulder injury could cost him as much as half of the 2025 season, and it makes for a tough needle to thread. He’s got to sign with a team that needs a solid infielder, but not badly enough to need one right away. Moreover, a shoulder injury is especially scary for Kim, whose arm strength is an important part of his overall value and who already possesses below-average power at the plate. For that reason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kim get a pillow contract: Ben Clemens proposed two years with an opt-out. Back in November, Mark Feinsand reported that Kim had generated “lots of interest,” and wrote about the possibility that he’d be among the first free agents off the board. However, it’s now late January, and if you cruise through our Depth Charts, you’ll notice that there just don’t seem to be many good landing spots for Kim. Let us begin our litanies. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
2025 BBWAA Candidate: Adam Jones
Player
Pos
Career WAR
Peak WAR
JAWS
H
HR
SB
AVG/OBP/SLG
OPS+
Adam Jones
CF
32.6
25.7
29.2
1939
282
97
.277/.317/.454
106
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Adam Jones was Mr. Baltimore. Though he was born in San Diego and began his major league career in Seattle, Jones took to Baltimore upon being traded to the Orioles in 2008. On the field, he set an example for younger teammates during lean years, and his combination of power, speed, and graceful defense eventually helped the team end an epic streak of futility. He served as a starter on the Orioles’ first three playoff teams in this millennium, winning four Gold Gloves and making five All-Star teams. Off the field, Jones invested in the city, annually donating a significant chunk of his salary to the local Boys & Girls Club and other charitable endeavors. He emerged as a civic icon, a Black athlete who could relate to the hardships experienced by the city’s Black population, and one who wasn’t afraid to speak out regarding the injustices he saw both locally and nationally.
Jones’ national prominence reached its zenith in 2017 when he made a memorable, iconic catch to rob Manny Machado of a home run while playing center field during the World Baseball Classic — a key moment in helping Team USA win the tournament for the only time thus far. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
2025 BBWAA Candidate: Fernando Rodney
Pitcher
WAR
WPA
WPA/LI
R-JAWS
IP
SV
ERA
ERA+
Fernando Rodney
7.4
4.4
2.6
4.8
933
327
3.80
110
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Fernando Rodney is a man of many hats, most of them slightly askew. Over the course of a 17-year major league career, the Dominican-born reliever showed off his signature style while pitching for 11 different teams, and that’s not even counting his minor league, independent, winter league, or international stops. During his time, he notched 327 saves (19th all-time), made three All-Star teams, and pitched in two World Series, earning a ring with the 2019 Washington Nationals. In the process, he gave the hearts of his managers plenty of workouts as his command came and went, forcing him to work his way out of jams. But when it all came together for Rodney — as it did in 2012, when he posted a microscopic 0.60 ERA while saving 48 games for the Rays — he was a sight to behold.
Rodney’s crooked hat was just one of his famous quirks. He also shot an imaginary arrow into the sky after closing games, most famously upon recording the final out for the Dominican Republic in the 2013 World Baseball Classic championship game.
This year I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the fifth time, and as was the case with the previous four, I‘m endeavoring to explain my reasoning. This is something I feel every voter should do. Casting a ballot is a privilege that should demand not only due diligence, but also transparency.
Let’s cut to the chase.
Noteworthy among my 2025 selections is that the holdovers differ somewhat from previous ballots. My most recent Sunday Notes column — I missed last week’s due to a health issue — suggested a few of those changes. As I explained on December 22, my previous ballots all included Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, but I was seriously considering dropping them and instead voting for two of Félix Hernández, Dustin Pedroia, and David Wright. I did just that. Following no small amount of deliberation, I adopted my colleague Jay Jaffe’s stance that Manny’s and A-Rod’s being suspended after PED rules were put into place is a meaningful distinction. With neither erstwhile slugger having a realistic chance of ever being elected by the BBWAA — another factor in my decision — a strategic change seemed in order.
Rickey Henderson had something to offer everyone. He was a Bay Area icon who spent more than half his career wearing the green and gold of the Oakland Athletics, yet he was traded away twice, and spent time with eight other teams scattered from Boston to San Diego, all of them viewing him as the missing piece in their quest for a playoff spot. For fans of a throwback version of baseball that emphasized speed and stolen bases, “The Man of Steal” put up numbers that eclipsed the single-season and career records of Lou Brock and Ty Cobb. To those who viewed baseball through the new-fangled lens of sabermetrics, he was the platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter, an on-base machine who developed considerable power. To critics — including some opponents — he was a showboat as well as a malcontent who complained about being underpaid and wouldn’t take the field due to minor injuries. To admirers, he was baseball’s most electrifying player, a fierce competitor, flamboyant entertainer, and inner-circle Hall of Famer. After a 25-year major league career full of broken records (not to mention the fourth-highest total of games played, ahem), Henderson spent his age-45 and -46 seasons wowing fans in independent leagues, hoping for one last shot at the majors.
It never came, but Henderson’s résumé could have hardly been more complete. A 10-time All-Star, two-time world champion, an MVP and Gold Glove winner, he collected 3,055 hits and set the career records for stolen bases (1,406), runs scored (2,295), and walks (2,190); the last was eclipsed by Barry Bonds three years later, though Henderson still has more unintentional walks (2,129). He also holds the single-season record for stolen bases (130), as well as the single-season and career records for caught stealing (42 and 335, respectively).
“If you could split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers. The greatest base stealer of all time, the greatest power/speed combination of all time (except maybe Barry Bonds), the greatest leadoff man of all time,” wrote Bill James for The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract in 2001. “Without exaggerating one inch, you could find fifty Hall of Famers who, all taken together, don’t own as many records, and as many important records, as Rickey Henderson.” Read the rest of this entry »
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