As we analyzed what various teams were likely to do at the deadline, the Orioles were one of the toughest teams to peg. Just a few games under .500 and within shouting distance of the final American League Wild Card spot, Baltimore had a lot of ways to approach the rest of their season. While the Dean Kremer and Taylor Ward deals signaled the club’s intention to sell, the decision to trade Adley Rutschman to Boston not only confirmed Baltimore’s direction for the rest of this season, but also arguably changed the course of the franchise. It’s the end of an era, and a bitter pill to swallow for a fan base barely a half decade removed from “playing badly for Adley.” Not surprisingly, Elias’s claim from exactly four years ago that the competitive window was open in Baltimore (“it’s liftoff from here“) has made the rounds again on social media today.
If it’s any consolation for O’s fans, the prospect package from the Red Sox is quite a haul. In exchange for Rutschman (along with catcher Jake Rogers and cash), the Orioles have acquired prospects Anthony Eyanson, Enddy Azocar, and Kyson Witherspoon, along with catcher Carlos Narváez and a player to be named later or cash. That’s two Top 100 prospects, including a guy in the top 30, and a pitcher who could enter that orbit as well. Let’s touch on each of them individually and then muse a bit about what this means for Baltimore’s system and the franchise overall. Read the rest of this entry »
The first reaction to this deal can only be one of astonishment, on multiple levels. The trade itself is audacious, from both teams’ perspective. Even with his trade value and reputation at a low ebb, Rutschman’s talents are gigantic, and the return reflects that.
But this trade’s on-field impact pales in comparison to What It All Means. Rutschman, the no. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, was the Orioles’ franchise player as they emerged from nearly a decade in the wilderness to become (if only briefly) a power player in the AL East. Seeing Rutschman in any other team’s colors will be weird enough to inspire the heebie-jeebies. Read the rest of this entry »
Taylor Ward walked his way back across the country.
In a trade on Monday ahead of the 6 PM ET deadline, the Orioles sent Ward to the Mariners in exchange for Alex Hoppe and two minor league pitchers, Brock Moore and Harrison Kreiling. Ward leads the American League in walks (second in the majors only to James Wood) and satisfies Seattle’s need for a right-handed bat to even out a lopsided lineup. Baltimore in turn gets a trio of work-in-progress arms to aid in what appears to be a bit of a reset.
Ward has completely reinvented himself at the plate in 2026 after being traded to Baltimore over the offseason. For years in Anaheim, the outfielder profiled as a three-true-outcomes hitter, mixing slug-and-whiff with a discerning eye to produce at an unspectacular, but above-average clip. Last year, he mashed 36 homers and struck out 26.4% of the time, good for a 117 wRC+.
This year, Ward has an identical 117 wRC+ but has gotten there in a fundamentally different way. His walk rate has leapt from an already strong 11.3% last year to 17.2% this year — fourth best in the majors. He also cut his strikeout rate to 20%, giving him one of the best BB/K ratios in the majors at 0.84. The tradeoff has been a massive drop in ISO, to a career-low .100. A year after slugging 36 homers, Ward is pacing for 10.
Back in June, Ben Clemens wrote a great piece outlining the how and why for Ward’s changes in 2026. The how is he’s simply stopped swinging. Ward has always had a great eye, but this year he’s combined it with an aggressive form of discipline. His 34.3% swing rate is among the lowest in the league. He doesn’t swing at balls (15.3% is the lowest in the majors), and he doesn’t swing at strikes (51.8% is second lowest). He doesn’t swing when ahead in counts or behind. He doesn’t swing at the slow and bendy stuff, and he doesn’t even swing at middle-middle fastballs. Pitchers have yet to figure out how to throw him strikes consistently, and Ward has forced them into deep counts that have generally worked in his favor.
The why is Ward is swinging much slower this year. His 68.4-mph average bat speed ranks in the bottom 10% of the majors and is down from an already-slow 69.5-mph average swing last year — one of the largest drops of 2026. As Ben notes, this slower swing has meant being later on fastballs and less likely to pull the ball in the air. That’s capped Ward’s power potential and forced him toward this new, extreme approach. It’s not all bad, though. This slower swing has kept Ward from whiffing, and his 5.9% swinging strike rate is a career low, helping him spoil pitches in those deep counts. He’s also squaring up the ball at a career-best 34.2% of swings. He’s hitting a lot more high-quality low line drives to all fields and supplementing his walks with a .310 BABIP (compared to .257 in 2025).
Ward is an ideal fit for the Mariners. Their lineup has been mediocre in 2026, with a 101 wRC+ a year after finishing second in the majors with a 113 wRC+. While they’ve hit better and worse depending on the month (definitively “worse” the last six weeks), they’ve always struggled to hit lefties. Their 91 wRC+ against southpaws is 25th in the majors. They seemed to identify this as a weakness in the offseason, bringing in one of the game’s great lefty mashers in Rob Refsnyder. But Refsnyder has a 33 wRC+ and -1.0 WAR this year while battling a pair of knee injuries. Between that performance, the cratering of Cal Raleigh, and a generally lefty-heavy lineup, the Mariners have been highly susceptible to aggressive bullpening from opposing managers. More than a few teams have reworked their pitcher schedules to force the Mariners onto the weak side of their platoon.
Enter Ward: He has a 141 wRC+ against lefties this year and a 130 wRC+ for his career. He’s walked in 20.3% of his plate appearances against lefties in 2026 while only striking out in 18.8% of them. He’s not limited to a strict platoon, with a 108 wRC+ against righties both this year and for his career. This gives the Mariners an ideal mix of an everyday bat while also someone they can slot into the top of their lineup — likely the very top of their lineup — against lefties.
It’s not quite clear where Ward will play defensively. He’s been a left fielder exclusively since 2022, but the Mariners already have Randy Arozarena playing left in the midst of a career-best season, and they have Dominic Canzone in right, also having a career year. Neither is particularly good defensively, though Ward doesn’t represent a clear upgrade himself, with -1 OAA in 2026 and -3 OAA going back to last year. My sense is Ward will do a good amount of DHing while occasionally spelling Arozarena and Canzone in the corners.
With this trade, the Mariners are signaling that the 2026 season is not lost yet, which wasn’t quite clear after they dealt starting pitcher Luis Castillo to the White Sox over the weekend. “Disappointing” is an understatement for their season to date, one they began as arguable favorites in the American League. They’ve reached the deadline at 55-58, having already fired a hitting coach and with fans clamoring for more heads to fall.
Still, they remain just three back in the league’s worst division and two back of the Wild Card. I wrote just last week that the Rangers had taken over the top odds to win the AL West, then proceeded to get swept over the weekend by the Astros, who have snatched the top odds for themselves. Neither team is too formidable, with the Astros having one of the worst pitching staffs in the league and the Rangers displaying a more general mediocrity. The Mariners have far and away the best Pythagorean record in the division at a mere +3 run differential. A week or two of hot play is all it would take to make them favorites again. That seems likelier now with Ward in the lineup.
Hoppe is the most imminently relevant pitcher in the deal. He’s posted a 5.79 ERA as a rookie out of the Seattle bullpen this year while bouncing back and forth between Triple-A. There is some clear upside, as he has a 2.88 FIP with a solid 27.6% strikeout rate, and he’s also allowing just 0.64 HR/9. He throws a four-seamer that averages 97.9 mph and an impressive, biting slider that’s generated whiffs on 41% of swings this year. At 6-foot-6 with over the top arm action, Hoppe often looks the part of a future bullpen ace, even if his command has limited him to a fringe big leaguer thus far.
Moore, 26, is a righty reliever who dominated Single-A hitters this year with a 58.2% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate in 16 innings. Since being promoted to Double-A, however, his long-standing issues with command have returned, now with a less impressive 33.7% strikeout rate and a 16.3% walk rate. Brendan Gawlowski noted Moore’s boom-or-bust potential in our Mariners Top 25 Prospects List this year:
“Moore touches triple digits and his slider flashes plus, but he’s a stiff athlete with a big head whack and bigger control problems.”
Kreiling, 24, was a 17th-round pick by the Mariners out of Nebraska in 2024, and he underwent Tommy John surgery before making an appearance professionally. He returned to the field this year and has made four starts, with 16 strikeouts and one walk in 10 2/3 innings. His fastball sits between 94-96 mph from a clean, moderate-effort but repeatable delivery. He also throws a cutter, a changeup, and a projectable slider. Brendan notes that Kreiling, who went unranked on the preseason prospects list, will likely receive a 35+ grade in the future, though he profiles as a reliever going forward.
It’s an ultimately a fine deal for a decent rental bat. The Mariners help even out their lineup while dealing from their strength of fringy arms with great stuff. And the Orioles get some fringy arms who could help them now and later.
A year after a massive deadline sell, the Twins have turned into tepid buyers.
First, on Thursday, they acquired lefty reliever A.J. Minter in a swap with the Mets; then, the next night, they traded with the Orioles for righty starter Dean Kremer. Neither deal is Earth shattering on its own, but together the trades underscore Minnesota’s surprising position with two months left to play in 2026. The team enters Sunday’s rubber match against the Mariners at 56-56, just three games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and tied with the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot.
Minter gives some length to the shallow Twins bullpen. The group has a 4.87 ERA — fifth worst in the majors this year. He joins the team with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings and figures to see plenty of medium- and high-leverage opportunities, as the lefty counterpart to righties Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez in the late innings. Read the rest of this entry »
Three interviews — two with pitchers, another with a hitter — were published here at FanGraphs over the past week. All were the result of lengthy conversations, and in each case, worthwhile snippets landed on the cutting-room floor. This week’s column will lead with those leftovers, which come courtesy of Drew Rasmussen, Cole Sulser, and Pete Alonso.
We’ll start with Rasmussen, who addressed his ability to command his offerings, particularly his four-seam/two-seam/cutter combination.
“Command is kind of a sliding scale,” said the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander, whose 4.3% walked rate ranks lowest among qualified hurlers. “Some days it’s really good and some days it’s not so good. The job is to figure out what you have as quickly as possible. On days when my command is really good… I would say that is situation-driven. If I need a ball on the ground, I can throw it with a little more tail and a little less carry. If I’m just trying to steal strike one, maybe I don’t want the [movement] profile to be as big; that way it has a better chance of staying in the zone.
“Conversely, on days that I’m not overly confident with my command, I simplify to the absolute max,” he continued. “We’re going to try to just throw the same one over and over again. Then, hopefully at some point over the course of the outing, something clicks and I start to get more and more confident, and comfortable, with the command I have that day.” Read the rest of this entry »
Controversy surrounding José Caballero’s pre-pitch routine struck twice in the Bronx this week, with the first time prompting the benches to clear and the second causing unnecessary confusion. In the eighth inning of the Yankees’ 8-5 win over the Pirates on Monday night, Caballero did what he usually does — he dug into the batter’s box and didn’t look up at the pitcher until there were eight seconds left on the pitch timer. The idea is to disrupt the pitcher’s rhythm. Pittsburgh reliever Dennis Santana took exception to Caballero’s tactic — which, again, he has done many, many times for the last four seasons — and yelled at him after getting him to ground into a double play. The benches emptied, and the Pirates complained to MLB about it.
Turns out, the griping worked. After the game, the league told the umpires to more strictly enforce the rules requiring batters to engage with the pitcher with no fewer than eight seconds left on the clock. Instead of warning the batter, and then calling an automatic strike for a repeat violation, the umpires were directed to assess a strike to Caballero for attempting to deceive the pitcher, no matter how much time was left on the pitch timer. Both Caballero and the Yankees claim the league did not notify them about the change. As crew chief Adrian Johnson told a pool reporter after, “He’s been warned all season. We were instructed not to warn him. We were instructed to violate him. That’s what it is. It’s a violation.” Along with Johnson’s poor phrasing, the sudden change in enforcement is quite jarring and, in my opinion, inappropriate. If what the Yankees said is true — that the league didn’t tell them about the change — then I think this is an overstep by MLB to single out a player. Caballero accused the umpires and the league of “picking on” him. But even if MLB did give the Yankees and Caballero the heads up, I think the escalated enforcement is an incorrect interpretation of the rule. I love that Caballero uses the pitch clock to his advantage; pitchers can hold the ball and run down the clock to zero, so why shouldn’t batters be allowed to wait their full allotted time before engaging with the pitcher? Moreover, I also don’t know how Caballero is deceiving the pitcher by doing something he does so frequently. He’s certainly trying to annoy the opposing pitcher, but that’s not deception — that’s good gamesmanship.
Anyway, that’s the last you’ll read about Caballero in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about Esmerlyn Valdez’s heater, Gunnar Henderson’s woes against fastballs, how to fix the Angels, and whether anyone will break Jesse Orosco’s record for games pitched. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
Pete Alonso is known as a slugger, and for good reason. Now in his eighth major league season — and first with the Baltimore Orioles — the 31-year-old first baseman has 285 home runs and a .511 slugging percentage to go with a 132 wRC+ over 1,111 career games. His right-handed stroke produced 53 round-trippers in 2019, and he also boasts single-season totals of 45, 40, 38, and 37. Only in the truncated COVID campaign has he finished with fewer than 30.
It would be unfair to pigeon-hole the University of Florida product, and erstwhile New York Met, as simply a slugger, though. That’s especially true when it comes to Alonso’s approach at the plate, as well as his overall understanding of the craft. While the term “student of hitting” is arguably overused, it fits Baltimore’s top basher to a T.
In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series — now 125 deep — Alonso addresses his self identity, the subtle adjustments he’s made over the years, and the studious manner in which he attacks pitchers. Our conversation took place at Fenway Park over the weekend.
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David Laurila: How would you define yourself as a hitter?
Pete Alonso: “I’d like to consider myself a line drive hitter that has strength, puts up really good professional at-bats, and can spoil pitches. I can kind of set traps. Ultimately, I’m a line drive hitter with strength.”
Laurila: You’re generally viewed as a power hitter. Do you like that label?
Alonso: “I love the label. Power is based on results. If you hit a ton of home runs and a ton of doubles, consistently, you’re a power hitter. It doesn’t matter what your physical stature looks like. If you get the power results, then you’re a power hitter.
“Honestly, I’m just trying to hit a hard line drive. That’s really all it is. Hit a hard drive, and not necessarily out in front. I’m better at just meeting the ball where it’s pitched and putting a swing on that. I’m not trying to produce power. I’m just trying to produce pure contact. I think chasing and producing pure contact is the best thing anyone can do. All good things happen on the sweet spot of the bat.”
You know the joke. “Where do you see yourself in five years?” asks the interviewer. Mitch Hedberg has the perfect answer. “Celebrating the five-year anniversary of you asking me this question.” Mike Elias and the Orioles sure seem to have their own five-year plan, and they fleshed it out on Sunday, signing right-hander Kyle Bradish to a five-year, $90 million extension. The deal buys out the starter’s final two years of arbitration, along with three free agent years, keeping him in orange and black until his age-35 season in 2031. Bradish is making $3.55 million in arbitration this season, and he’ll make $10 million when the new deal kicks in next year. He’ll get a $3 million raise in 2028, then get $1 million added to his annual raise in each subsequent season. So he’ll make $10 million in 2027, then 13, then 17, then 22, then 28 in 2031. It’s a classic example of linear growth rather than exponential, and it should help Bradish stay a step ahead of inflation. According to The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka, it’s also the largest deal for a pitcher in franchise history.
Bradish has a 3.50 ERA and a 3.62 FIP for his career, but there’s still room for some uncertainty in his profile. He debuted in 2022 and put up ugly numbers across 23 starts, running a 4.90 ERA and a 4.46 FIP. He broke out in 2023, going 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. The underlying numbers weren’t quite so spectacular, as a big component of his improvement was a drop in home run rate that looked unsustainably large. Although Bradish had made more sustainable improvements to his walk, strikeout, and groundball rates, it still would have been fair to expect some regression. Instead, he came out of the gate even better in 2024. His walk rate did indeed regress, but he suppressed homers even further and ratcheted his strikeout rate all the way up to 33%. It was a huge jump, but it lasted just eight starts before the god of ulnar collateral ligaments demanded its tribute.
Bradish returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of August 2025, and he picked up right where he’d left off before the injury. In fact, over his six starts, he struck out more than 37% of the batters he faced. If you combine the two seasons, Bradish threw 71 1/3 innings across 14 starts, posting a 2.65 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. He put up 2.5 WAR in what was essentially half a season. It was legitimate dominance. Read the rest of this entry »
In years past, I’ve generally addressed the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in one corner outfield spot or the other within the same post, but this year’s batch of right fielders is disproportionately large, mandating a separate entry that led me to combine the left and center field lists instead. There’s still some crossover between most teams’ pools of right fielders and the positions I covered in the previous post, with a couple teams from this group landing on both lists. As they look to upgrade, there’s some fluidity as well, with teams willing to test the defensive limitations of their outfielders in order to shoehorn better bats into the lineup.
While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included the club here because its performance is worth a look.
As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »
Having gone around the horn during the first three entries of this series, it’s time to turn to the outfield. In a break from tradition, instead of looking at the teams with trouble at either corner in one fell swoop, this time I’m addressing the ones receiving less-than-acceptable production from their left and center fielders. Right fielders will get a standalone list in order to keep the length of these articles manageable. There’s still some crossover between today’s positions and their respective lists, with two contenders double-dipping.
While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance is worth a look.
As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. The capsules are listed in order of their left field rankings first, while noting those crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »
