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Senior Data Scientist
Data Scientist

Senior Data Scientist, Baseball Analytics

Location: Citi Field – Queens, New York

Summary:
The New York Mets are seeking a Senior Data Scientist in Baseball Analytics. The Senior Data Scientist will build, test, and present statistical models that inform decision-making in all facets of Baseball Operations. This position requires strong background in complex statistics and data analytics, as well as the ability to communicate statistical model details and findings to both a technical and non-technical audience. Prior experience in or knowledge of baseball is a plus, but is not required.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Build statistical models to answer a wide variety of baseball-related questions affecting the operations of the organization using advanced knowledge of statistics and data analytics and exercising appropriate discretion and judgment regarding development of statistical models

• Interpret data and report conclusions drawn from their analyses

• Present model outputs in an effective way, both for technical and non-technical audiences

• Communicate well with both the Baseball Analytics team as well as other Baseball Operations personnel to understand the parameters of any particular research project

• Provide advice on the desired outputs from the data engineering team, and guidance to the Baseball Systems team on how best to present model results

• Assist with recruiting, hiring, and mentoring new analysts in the Baseball Analytics department

• Evaluate potential new data sources and technologies to determine their validity and usefulness

• Consistently analyze recent research in analytics that can help improve the modeling work done by the Baseball Analytics department

Qualifications:

• Ph.D. in statistics or a related field, or equivalent professional experience

• Strong background in a wide variety of statistical techniques

• Strong proficiency in R, Python, or similar, as well as strong proficiency in SQL

• Basic knowledge of data engineering and front-end development is a plus, for the purpose of communicating with those departments

• Strong communication skills

• Ability to work cooperatively with others, and to take control of large-scale projects with little or no daily oversight

Salary Range: $115,000 – $145,000

For technical reasons, we strongly advise to not use an .edu email address when applying. Thank you very much.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Data Scientist, Baseball Analytics

Location: Citi Field – Queens, New York

Summary:
The New York Mets are seeking a Data Scientist in Baseball Analytics. The Data Scientist will build, test, and present statistical models that inform decision-making in all facets of Baseball Operations. This position requires strong background in complex statistics and data analytics, as well as the ability to communicate statistical model details and findings to both a technical and non-technical audience. Prior experience in or knowledge of baseball is a plus, but is not required.

Qualifications:

• Masters and/or BS degree in statistics or a related field

• Professional experience in a quantitative position is a plus

• Strong background in a wide variety of statistical techniques

• Strong proficiency in R, Python, or similar, as well as strong proficiency in SQL

• Basic knowledge of data engineering and front-end development is a plus, for the purpose of communicating with those departments

• Strong communication skills

• Ability to work cooperatively with others, and to take control of large-scale projects with little or no daily oversight

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Build statistical models to answer a wide variety of baseball-related questions affecting the operations of the organization using advanced knowledge of statistics and data analytics and exercising appropriate discretion and judgment regarding development of statistical models

• Interpret data and report conclusions drawn from their analyses

• Present model outputs in an effective way, both for technical and non-technical audiences

• Communicate well with both the Baseball Analytics team as well as other Baseball Operations personnel to understand the parameters of any particular research project

• Provide advice on the desired outputs from the data engineering team, and guidance to the Baseball Systems team on how best to present model results

• Evaluate potential new data sources and technologies to determine their validity and usefulness

• Consistently analyze research in analytics that can help improve the modeling work done by the Baseball Analytics department

Salary Range: $80,000 – $110,000

For technical reasons, we strongly advise to not use an .edu email address when applying. Thank you very much.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.

They were among the best players on the open market this past winter, four of the top seven on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Blake Snell had just won his second Cy Young Award, while Jordan Montgomery had a huge October, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Cody Bellinger had proven himself healthy and productive for the first time in years, and Matt Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove. The so-called “Boras Four” were supposed to land deals in the nine-figure range, but free agency became a frigid slog. Teams found nits to pick with their past production, and luxury tax concerns limited the interest of the biggest spenders, particularly when sky-high target figures were publicly floated, leading to the understandable conclusion that agent Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. The first of them (Bellinger) didn’t agree to a contract until February 25, after camps had opened, and it took another month for the last one (Montgomery) to sign. None of their seasons has gone quite as planned, either.

When the Diamondbacks visited Boston last week, Montgomery expressed frustration with the way his free agency played out. Because his wife, McKenzie Dirr, began a dermatology residency at a Boston-area hospital last fall, a deal with the Red Sox made sense, particularly given their apparent need for starting pitching. Montgomery and Boras engaged in discussions with the Red Sox, but the 31-year-old lefty did not receive a formal offer before signing his one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29.

“I had a Zoom call with [the Red Sox], that’s really all I know. It went good,” Montgomery told the Boston Herald last week. “I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”

Montgomery’s dissatisfaction wasn’t exactly a secret given that on April 11, old friend Kiley McDaniel reported that he left the Boras Corporation to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman. But the timing of his latest comments coincided with the Diamondbacks’ decision to send him to the bullpen, as he’s been lit for a 6.44 ERA in 95 innings, and is doing more harm than good as the team tries to secure a playoff spot.

Snell, who agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19, was bothered enough by Montgomery’s comments to publicly defend Boras. “My experience with Scott has been great,” he told The Athletic on Sunday. More:

“I’ve seen how [Montgomery] struggled, but he signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

While we’ll never know exactly how negotiations progressed for this bunch, or whether they’d have been better off taking different deals, their respective performances to date are worth a look, as are the decisions that lie ahead, since their contracts have mechanisms that could lead to new addresses next year. Here are the details regarding our crowdsource estimates for their contracts as well as the basics of their actual deals. I’ll tackle their respective cases alphabetically:

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger hit an impressive .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers for the Cubs last year on the heels of two injury-wracked seasons with the Dodgers, but the question was whether he could be counted on to maintain star-level production as he entered his age-28 season. His 2023 performance far outstripped his modest Statcast numbers and was driven by particularly impressive two-strike results in the service of nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half. Given the former MVP’s upside, high-quality defense, and versatility (center field, right field, first base), he ranked third on our free agent list; Boras reportedly sought a contract worth as much as $250 million, and both Ben Clemens and our crowdsource estimates figured he’d at least secure more than half of that. While the Blue Jays were considered the favorites to sign him, and the rumor mill also connected him to the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees, he returned to the Cubs on a deal that includes $27.5 million salaries for 2024 and ’25, with a $2.5 million buyout of a player option after this season, and then another player option for $25 million for ’26, with a $5 million buyout.

Bellinger has bounced around between the aforementioned three positions and designated hitter given the presence of rookies Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong and the oblique strain of Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to avoid the injured list himself, missing 13 days in April and May due to a rib fracture and then another 18 days in July due to a fractured left middle finger. His .269/.328/.423 (108 wRC+) slash line looks less like 2024 and more like his combined numbers from ’22 and ’23 (.258/.311/.457, 109 wRC+). His average exit velocity is down a bit, as are his other Statcast numbers, and he’s exceeded his expected stats by less:

The big difference between Bellinger’s 2023 and ’24 expected numbers — and a key driver of his fall-off — is on his fly balls:

After producing ridiculously strong numbers on his oppo flies in 2023, Bellinger isn’t hitting them as hard this year, reducing their average distance by 14 feet (from 284 to 270), and far fewer are falling in; none have gone over the fence, compared to four last year. While the average launch angle of his opposite-field flies has remained constant at 39 degrees, that of his pulled ones has increased from 35 to 38 degrees, and their average distance has dropped by 27 feet (from 341 to 314), with a reduction in homers from 16 to 10.

As for Bellinger’s strikeouts, his 15.3% rate is nearly identical to last year, but where he hit for a .281 AVG and .313 wOBA with two strikes last year, he’s fallen to .226 and .270, respectively, this year. His 1.5 WAR pales in comparison to last year’s 4.4, and is hardly has an ideal platform to seek a much larger contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put this winter in hopes of opting out after 2025, as I don’t think a .383 xSLG will convince anyone to invest $150 million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman reportedly declined a $120 million extension with the Blue Jays at some point last year. The team briefly pursued a return, and the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were also connected to him. While all of the Boras Four fell far short of our crowd’s expectations for contract size, Chapman is the only one whose AAV came in lower as well. He’s making $18 million via a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million salary, with a $17 million player option and $2 million buyout for ’25, an $18 million player option and $3 million buyout for ’26, and then a $20 million mutual option and $1 million buyout for ’27.

He’s also the only member of this bunch who has avoided the IL, and is the one who is having the best season. His 4.2 WAR ranks sixth in the NL, and is third among all third basemen behind only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers; it’s his highest WAR since 2019. Yet in the grand scheme, it’s hardly been an atypical season for the 31-year-old. His 118 wRC+ matches his career mark, and his .246/.333/.443 line bears a strong resemblance to last year’s .240/.330/.424, but with a bit more power; his 21-homer total so far is already four more than last season. His defense has been typically strong (11 DRS, 4 FRV, 3.1 UZR).

More notable is the arc of his season. Chapman finished 2023 in a funk, with a 54 wRC+ from August 12 onward, and he followed that by producing just an 80 wRC+ in March and April. Statcast’s bat tracking data — which places him among the game’s fastest swingers — arrived just in time to offer him some reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor adjustments instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball; he’s hit for a 129 wRC+ (.253/.353/.461) since. He and the Giants are reportedly engaged in “active dialogue” (Boras’ term) regarding a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear imminent. My guess is that he opts out, and that a return could depend upon how things unfold with Snell, since signing both to nine-figure deals may be unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery

On August 2, 2022, the Yankees traded Montgomery to the Cardinals in exchange for the injured Harrison Bader because general manager Brian Cashman reportedly didn’t believe he’d be part of the postseason rotation. From the point of the trade through the end of 2023 — after another deadline trade to the Rangers — Montgomery posted the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA among qualified starters (3.17), while ranking 12th in WAR (5.6) and 13th in FIP (3.44). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings during the 2023 postseason, doing the heavy lifting in a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWS) and the Astros (ALDS), and chipping in 2.1 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. His start against the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series was nothing special (six innings, four runs in a 9-1 rout), but it didn’t stop the team from winning its first championship.

Montgomery and Boras reportedly set their sights on topping Aaron Nola‘s seven-year, $172 million deal. In addition to the Red Sox, he was pursued to some degree by the Rangers (who were somewhat hamstrung by uncertainty over their television deal), Yankees, and Mets. The Athletic’s Jim Bowoden reported that he received two long-term offers, though neither the teams nor terms were reported. His deal with the Diamondbacks includes a $20 million vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts.

After signing, Montgomery made two starts for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first four starts were good, but his ERA has been above 6.00 since June 5. His strikeout rate has fallen from 21.4% to 15.5%, with his walk and homer rates both rising (from 6.2% to 8.3% for the former, and from 0.86 per nine to 1.14 per nine for the latter). With the recent returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly from lengthy injury-related absences, he’s been relegated to the bullpen.

Whether it’s due to the lack of a normal winter/spring buildup or the inflammation in his right knee that sidelined him for three weeks in July, the average velocity of Montgomery’s sinker is down 1.6 mph from last year (from 93.3 mph to 91.7), and the offering is getting hammered (.380 AVG/.569 SLG). His other pitches are slower and less effective as well. Per both of our pitch modeling systems, his stuff and command have both fallen off, with his botOvr falling from 52 to 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 96 to 95 (on a scale where 100 is average). He’s probably best served by exercising his option in hopes of producing a better springboard to free agency.

Blake Snell

Snell appeared primed to cash in on his second Cy Young and ERA title, but his career-high (and major league-high) 13.2% walk rate, inability to pitch deep into games (he’s never averaged six innings per turn in a season), and concerns about durability (he’s made more than 27 starts in two out of six full seasons, with last year’s 32 his career high) all helped to cool his market. Nonetheless, the Yankees reportedly offered six years and $150 million (topping both Ben’s and our crowdsource’s expectations), and the Astros and Angels made late runs before he signed with the Giants. His deal pays $15 million this year, with a $17 million signing bonus deferred until 2026; half of next year’s $30 million player option will be deferred until mild-2027 if he exercises it.

Injuries prevented the 31-year-old lefty from gaining momentum in the first half of the season. Despite an abbreviated spring, he debuted on April 8, but was dreadful in his first three turns, yielding 15 runs in 11.2 innings and then landing on the IL due to a left adductor strain. After two hitless rehab starts totaling nine innings, he struggled in three more big league starts in late May and June before being sidelined again due to a left groin strain. To that point, he had a 9.65 ERA and hadn’t completed five innings in a start. But after another five-inning hitless rehab start, he found a groove; four of his first five starts off the IL were scoreless, capped by his no-hitter against the Reds on August 2. He’s continued his roll, though a six-walk, three-inning effort against the Mariners on Saturday was nothing to write home about. Still, his splits are night and day relative to the period bracketed by his two IL trips:

Snell has tweaked his delivery a bit such that his horizontal and vertical release points have both decreased since the early going, as has his extension. He’s cut his slider usage from 16.5% before the second IL stint to 6.6% since, with the usage of his curve increasing from 18.9% to 32.4%. And why not, as the pitch is off the charts in terms of our modeling (from 144 to 148 in Stuff+, and from 66 to 76 in PitchingBot), though the big improvement there has been his fastball (103 to 115 in Stuff+, 56 to 68 in PitchingBot).

In other words, Snell is pitching like an ace, and so long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to test free agency again. Despite his imperfections, he’s got the highest ceiling of this group — he has the talent for a third Cy — and I’d expect him to land the biggest contract of the bunch next winter.

If you aren’t a Detroit Tigers fan — and maybe even if you are — you probably couldn’t name the pitcher with the lowest ERA among those who have thrown at least 150 major league innings since the start of last season. That’s understandable. The hurler in question works primarily out of the bullpen and has just six saves to go with an 8-3 record over 111 appearances during that span. He also doesn’t light up radar guns or overpower hitters. Currently ranking in the 19th percentile for fastball velocity at 91.9 mph, he has a modest 21.8% strikeout rate (as well as a minuscule 5.1% walk rate) since first taking the mound in a Tigers uniform on April 15 of last year.

The pitcher is Tyler Holton, and what he does is record outs on a consistent basis. Pitching in a variety of roles — including having been used as an opener on seven occasions — and featuring a six-pitch mix, the 28-year-old left-hander has a 2.24 ERA over 161 innings during his Tigers tenure. Making his performance even more impressive is how he ended up wearing the Olde English D. Cast aside by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the 2018 ninth-round pick out Florida State University was claimed off of waivers in February of last year.

Holton discussed his M.O. on the mound prior to a recent game at Wrigley Field.

———

David Laurila: Based on what I’ve seen and heard, you know how to “pitch.” Is that an accurate way to describe how you get outs?

Tyler Holton: “Yeah. That’s the simple answer. I go out there and throw strikes with multiple pitches. That’s probably the best way to put it.” Read the rest of this entry »

I know this isn’t really a blind item, what with the name of the article and the picture at the top and all, but bear with me for a moment. I’m going to give you some details about a mystery player. Here’s a list of all the transactions they’ve been involved in since their initial signing in 2016:

This feels like a pretty boring player, right? Some kind of replacement level journeyman, probably a reliever given how teams shuffle them on and off the end of the roster. It’s true: He’s a reliever, and a replacement level one at that, just like you’d expect. This particular player pitched to a 5.80 ERA and 4.44 FIP (4.94 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA, etc.) in 40 1/3 innings of work. His WAR was exactly zero across parts of three major league seasons.

Oh, here’s another data point. Our mystery man started the 2024 season in Triple-A, and things didn’t go so well. He struck out 29.7% of the opposing batters he faced, but walked 10.1% of them and gave up a ghastly eight homers in 34 innings of work. That’s, uh, not great. That’s how you end up with a 5.77 ERA. It’s also apparently how you end up as the reliever with the second-best ERA and best FIP in all of baseball, and earn a job as the closer for the Tampa Bay Rays. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s get one thing straight off the top: If all the Guardians got out of Jhonkensy Noel was the nickname, he’d be worth the roster spot.

The heyday of baseball was the early- to mid-20th century, a period which overlapped with what I assume was a New Deal policy where the government issued everyone a catchy nickname on their 10th birthday. It was not a perfect time; we’re better off having left the likes of “Chief” and “Fat Freddie” in the past, and let’s not act like it was the hallmark of a clever generation that every left-handed pitcher was called “Lefty” and every player with blonde hair was called “Whitey.”

In 2024, I’d give a kidney for a Joltin’ Joe or a Splendid Splinter. It’s a minor miracle that, in a few years, I won’t be checking off Markus Betts or Gerald Posey on a Hall of Fame ballot. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

While esteemed FanGraphs writer Michael Baumann has spent this season anchored to South Jersey, the same can’t be said about the right-handed pitcher of the same name. Since that linked interview from July 2023, pitcher Mike Baumann (hereafter referred to as “Baumann”) has thrown 60 innings with a 5.10 ERA, with his 49 strikeouts, 26 walks, and 11 home runs producing a similar 5.39 FIP. Nothing special, and certainly nothing either Baumann is too happy about.

Read the rest of this entry »

While the book isn’t completely shut on the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.3% projected chance of making the postseason entering this week, only a plot twist out of left field could change the story. At 82-80, the 2023 Reds weren’t exactly good, but after entering the season with a bleak outlook, they comfortably beat most expectations. Given that their improvements last year largely came from their young talent rather than short-term signings, it wasn’t unreasonable back in March to believe this team could contend for a postseason berth. Five months later, as the Reds look more likely to play the role of spoiler in September than make it to October, now seems like a fine time to consider where they should go from here.

The first step would be to ask ourselves what were the reasonable expectations for the Reds in 2024. The ZiPS projections gave them an 80-82 record, but with enough uncertainty that if things broke their way, they could make a playoff push (35.1% odds). One man’s digital monstrosity isn’t the only fair outlook, of course, but our depth charts and Baseball Prospectus both had Cincinnati in a similar position, at 79 wins.

Right now, our depth charts and ZiPS have the Reds finishing with a 77-85 record, a disappointing result, but not exactly a massive miss relative to the projections above. If we’re going to figure out where the Reds go from here, we first have to understand how they got to this point, and that means looking back at the lessons they drew from their 82 wins last year.

Based on their offseason moves, it appears the organization decided – no doubt some unknown combination of ownership and the front office – that the general approach was to stay the course with their young talent and make mid-tier free agent signings to fill the team’s most pressing holes. The Reds made no significant trades over the winter, unless you count sending pitcher Daniel Duarte to the Rangers for cash in January after designating him for assignment as significant. It wasn’t until nearly Opening Day that the team made a move that would have an actual effect on the roster, picking up Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays in the aftermath of the Noelvi Marte suspension.

Excluding the Espinal trade, the players signed in free agency made up the entirety of the external improvements from 2023 to 2024. Suffice it to say, I was not a fan of the specific signings they made. To sum up my general feelings at the time, I thought Jeimer Candelario was the right player for the wrong team. It doesn’t make much sense for a team overloaded with third basemen to sign a player who is most valuable as a third baseman and then make him a mediocre first baseman. On the pitching side, Emilio Pagán was a disaster waiting to happen, and $13 million was a lot to give Nick Martinez. Other pitcher signings made more sense: Brent Suter was a good addition and Frankie Montas was a reasonable gamble. The signings didn’t go exactly as I expected – some were worse, some were better – but they certainly didn’t do much to improve the club.

As a group, the free agents have performed a bit worse than projected, but not alarmingly so. By the end of the year, we project these nine free agents to be worth 5.1 WAR to the Reds, compared to the 7.3 WAR that was predicted. Two wins would not have salvaged Cincinnati’s season.

Injuries to some of the young talent has certainly hindered the Reds. Matt McLain, who made a convincing case for being one of the team’s foundational talents last year, injured his shoulder in the spring and has yet to play for Cincinnati this season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand didn’t get the chance to make up for his cold start because he underwent season-ending surgery in July after fracturing his right wrist in May, and while it’s not an injury, the team went without Marte for 80 games after he was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs.

However, the Reds also got some impressive breakouts on the flip side to compensate. For as exciting as they are, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene weren’t expected to be in this year’s MVP and Cy Young races, though that’s where they stand in late August.

Moreover, injuries alone didn’t stop Cincinnati in its tracks. I ran the numbers on time lost to injuries two weeks ago, and the Reds ranked 11th out of 30 teams in potential value lost to injury, at 6.46 wins, right in line with the mean (6.5 wins) and a half-win more than median (six wins).

That leaves us with the conclusion that the Reds didn’t struggle this season because they were unlucky; rather, they did so because they were a roughly .500 team in terms of talent and didn’t get lucky. The path forward, then, is for ownership and the front office to recognize this so they can work to improve the team in the offseason instead of staying the course again and hoping for better results.

One part of this year’s plan — relying on the young talent — was justified and is worth doing again next season, as long as the Reds reinforce their core with more impactful veterans. Looking at the projections for 2025 now versus where they were six months ago, the Reds have lost a few wins, but their foundation is still quite solid.

(Rhett Lowder is not included here because he didn’t get a preseason ZiPS projection this year for 2025, so there would be nothing to compare with his current projection for next season.)

When I run some very preliminary projections for the NL Central in 2025, based on players who are under team control for next season, the division looks a lot like it did in this year’s the preseason projections, with all five teams roughly clustered around the .500 mark. That indicates that, with the right moves, the Reds could boost their playoff odds considerably this offseason.

Their plan to paper over holes this season by moving third basemen around has not been successful: The team ranks 25th in outfield WAR and 28th both in first base WAR and designated hitter WAR. Upgrading those positions with players who actually play them would go a long way toward turning things around. The rotation hasn’t been bad this season, but it is not good enough as it’s currently constructed.

It’s worth mentioning that the Reds did spend money on their roster entering this season, but they just didn’t do so effectively. Signing mid-tier free agents again this offseason won’t remedy the team’s woes. Yes, ownership almost certainly would balk at the idea of giving Juan Soto a blank check to play for Cincinnati, but it would be even more preposterous to spend the same amount to sign six players who are slightly above replacement level, which is kind of what the Reds did last winter.

Looking ahead, even though the upcoming class of free agents isn’t particularly deep, Cincinnati’s front office needs to strike the right balance of quality and quantity. Corbin Burnes is one of the best players available, and the Reds should make a serious push to sign him. Blake Snell has been on such a roll after his rough start to this season that it seems nearly certain that he will opt out of his Giants contract. The Braves have yet to extend Max Fried, so he seems bound for free agency, too. And while they might fall short, why shouldn’t the Reds go after Roki Sasaki if he gets posted this winter? After all, they made a bid to land Shohei Ohtani back when he was coming over from Japan.

On the offensive side, Anthony Santander would give the Reds the legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in the outfield that they currently lack, as would Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernández

We currently have the Reds with a guaranteed payroll of just under $50 million for 2025, though that’s not including arbitration awards. They certainly have the ability to go after players who would make a real difference and still have a payroll well below that of the average team. A repeat of last winter’s approach would be a disaster; more of the same will likely lead to more of the same. The Reds quite possibly have more upside than any other team in the NL Central, but the time’s come for them to pick a direction rather than treading water.

While Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched this year after undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery last fall, he has found another area of the game in which he could excel while terrorizing opposing pitchers. The 30-year-old superstar blew past his previous career high in stolen bases in late July, and on Friday night against the Rays he swiped his 40th bag of the year. Five innings later, he collected his 40th home run to join the 40-40 club in spectacular style, when he clobbered a first-pitch, walk-off grand slam. Unfortunately, Ronald Acuña Jr.’s torn ACL deprived him of a chance to follow up last year’s unprecedented combination of 41 homers and 73 steals, but it’s not out of the question we could have another 40-40 player this season, namely José Ramírez, and at least a couple more 30-30 ones.

I’ll get to those, but first, it’s Sho time. Prior to this year, Ohtani had reached 40 homers twice (46 in 2021 and a league-leading 44 last year) but had stolen just 20 bases or more twice (26 in 2021 and 20 last year). Unburdened by the demands of pitching this year, and playing for a new team with much higher aspirations than the Angels, he’s been able to withstand more wear and tear on his legs, has had more time to study opposing pitchers, and has come to appreciate the extra dimension he can add to his new team.

“I think he has bought into stealing bases, understands the value of the stolen base, getting 90 feet,” manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic earlier this month. “He’s in a pennant race now. And I don’t think he’s been in a pennant race in his big-league career. So his enhanced focus is not a surprise to me.” Read the rest of this entry »

Shortly before Walter Pennington was acquired by the Texas Rangers from the Kansas City Royals at last month’s trade deadline, Eric Longenhagen wrote that the 26-year-old left-hander had “caught some helium of late after striking out 35% of the hitters he’s faced in Triple-A.” Our lead prospect analyst went on to note that Pennington had recently made his MLB debut, adding that he “has a middle relief profile with little margin for error due to his underwhelming velocity.” Longenhagen assigned the 2020 non-drafted free agent out of the Colorado School of Mines a not-overly-enthusiastic 35+ FV.

Through his first seven big-league appearances — one with the Royals and now six with the Rangers — Pennington has fanned 10 batters and allowed three earned runs while attacking hitters with an array of sinkers, sliders, and cutters (he’s also thrown a smattering of four-seamers) in eight-and-two-thirds innings of work. Down on the farm, he’d heavily featured his slider while fanning 82 batters and allowing 43 hits in 63-and-a-third frames.

His velocity is indeed underwhelming. And not only has Pennington been averaging just 91.7 mph with his heaters, his arsenal doesn’t include a breaking ball that sweeps or dips in eye-catching fashion. Your stereotypical power pitcher he’s not.

Asking Pennington how he profiles on the mound elicited some intriguing answers. Read the rest of this entry »

Entering Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays had stolen 35 bases in their previous 15 games. Even in this new age of increased stolen base rates, that’s impressive. Only one other team has swiped at least 35 bags over 15 games since the implementation of the new rules: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2023. Before that, only one other team had accomplished the feat in the 21st century: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2009. The last time a team other than the Rays stole so many bases in so few games was before the Rays franchise even existed; in 1992, the Milwaukee Brewers enjoyed two distinct 15-game stretches with at least 35 stolen bags.

Perhaps 35 and 15 aren’t round enough numbers for you. In that case, you’ll be happy to hear that the 2024 Rays are the very first team in the pitch clock/disengagement limit/bigger bases era to steal 50 bases in any 25-game span; they pulled it off between July 21 and August 18 (and again from July 22 to August 19, and July 23 to August 20). The last team to achieve this particular feat was — you guessed it — the 2009 Rays, and before them, the 1992 Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »