Archive for Teams

Job Posting: Milwaukee Brewers – Multiple Openings

The Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Research and Development Department has a number of both full-time and internship positions available. These are all paid positions with flexible start dates depending on your availability. All positions are based in Milwaukee with some travel depending on role.

The Research and Development Department is a critical component to the success of the Milwaukee Brewers organization. We develop the information used in decision-making processes across all other departments. You will be given the opportunity to work on new and innovative research problems and work with personnel across the front-office to see the implementation. We strive to discover the most accurate and actionable information possible to help the Brewers win the World Series.
We are proud to offer highly competitive perks and benefits. For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

Senior Analyst, High Performance – Baseball Research and Development

Position Summary:
The Senior Analyst will deliver research and tools to improve decision-making with a focus on the application of High Performance data and information in the spaces of biomechanics, strength and conditioning, availability, health, and training conditions. Working within the Baseball Research and Development Department, the Senior Analyst will work closely with the Baseball Systems, High Performance, and Baseball Operations Departments on projects and processes.

The position requires an individual who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter, and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to a non-technical audience. Being passionate about using data, analysis, and technology to improve baseball decision making processes, as well as understanding the connection between physiological processes and performance are essential qualities for the position.

Core Duties:

  • Provide guidance to leadership in the Baseball Research and Development and High Performance departments on strategy and prioritization on High Performance related initiatives
  • Evaluate the quality of proprietary High Performance data from sources such as wearable sensors or motion capture systems and make recommendations as to their usage
  • Create explanatory and predictive models to aid in a variety of player acquisition, player development, gameplay, health, and training decisions. Partner with personnel in the High Performance and Baseball Systems departments on these processes to help create a full evaluation and decision-making pipeline.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will have an advanced degree (Masters/Ph.D) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, and two to three years of related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience. 

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Analyst, High Performance – Baseball Research and Development

Position Summary:
The Analyst will deliver research and tools to improve decision-making with a focus on the application of High Performance data and information in the spaces of biomechanics, strength and conditioning, availability, health, and training conditions. Working within the Baseball Research and Development Department, the Analyst will work closely with the Baseball Systems, High Performance, and Baseball Operations Departments on projects and processes.
The position requires an individual who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter, and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to a non-technical audience. Being passionate about using data, analysis, and technology to improve baseball decision making processes, as well as understanding the connection between physiological processes and performance are essential qualities for the position. Residence in Milwaukee is required. 

Core Duties:

  • Evaluate the quality of proprietary High-Performance data from sources such as wearable sensors or motion capture systems and make recommendations as to their usage
  • Create explanatory and predictive models to aid in a variety of player acquisition, player development, gameplay, health, and training decisions. Partner with personnel in the High Performance and Baseball Systems departments on these processes to help create a full evaluation and decision-making pipeline.
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will have Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Analyst – Baseball Research and Development

Position Summary:
The Analyst will deliver research and tools to improve decision making, working with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems Departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to a non-technical audience. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.

Core Duties:

  • Evaluate existing data sources and build predictive or explanatory models to aid in a variety of player acquisition, player development and gameplay decisions.
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to the front office, player development staff, and other baseball employees – including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will have Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Intern – Baseball Research and Development

Position Summary:
Will work with the Baseball Research and Development, Baseball Systems Departments, and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis, and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.

Core Duties:

  • Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will have a bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) or in the current pursuit of a bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.


Brooks Raley on Being a Pitching Nerd

Brooks Raley
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Brooks Raley has been an effective reliever since returning to MLB in 2020 after five seasons as a starter with the KBO’s Lotte Giants. He’s been especially good for the past two. Taking the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021 and for the New York Mets this past season, the 35-year-old left-hander has logged a combined 2.74 ERA and a 3.21 FIP over 126 relief appearances. Moreover, he’s allowed just 81 hits and fanned 122 batters in 108.1 innings. Working primarily in a setup role, he’s been credited with a pair of wins and nine saves.

Raley is also a bona fide pitching nerd. That wasn’t the case when he got cups of coffee with the Chicago Cubs in 2012 and ’13, but then came a career-altering adoption of analytics when he was overseas. Looking to optimize his talents, the Texas A&M University product schooled himself on how his pitches played best, and what he could add, subtract or tweak in order to attack hitters more effectively. The result was a successful return to the big leagues, and not only has he put up a good FIP and a solid SIERA, but he also knows exactly what those acronyms mean.

Raley discussed his analytics-influenced evolution as a pitcher when the Mets visited Fenway Park this summer.

———

David Laurila: You played five years in Korea. What was that experience like?

Brooks Raley: “I loved it. I learned a lot. We’re talking analytics, and I went over there not very polished. I was a starter but didn’t have a changeup or a cutter, so I started watching YouTube videos of all the different shapes, spin rates, tilts, extension — all that stuff. For a little bit, I tried to throw like Chris Sale. I kind of leaned over and tried to create some different angles and see what kind of shapes I could get. I really got into that side of the sport. I found my cutter, found my arm slot, and then the sinker got better. My slider also got better. That all happened when I was in Korea. It’s how I got back [to MLB].”

Laurila: Why hadn’t you gotten into analytics and begun making changes prior to going to the KBO?

Raley: “I wouldn’t change anything about my career, but coming across analytics and what defines your strengths better… when I was coming through the minors, it was ‘sinkers down and away are safe’ and ‘ground balls over strikeouts.’ But I actually and naturally pitch better inside. That’s to both sides. To righties, I throw the cutter and the slider and have the changeup and sinker to keep them honest. To lefties, I’ve got the running sinker. It’s been inconsistent this year, I can’t really figure that out, but it’s been between 14 to 19 horizontal and probably anywhere from eight to two vertical. It’s kind of a unique pitch because it spins 2,400 [RPMs] or so. It’s got some life and late dart to it.

“I always struggled with changeups before I went over there, because I’d always try to throw the 10 miles an hour off [from the fastball]. Now I throw a Viulcan change, so I don’t really kill spin but I put it on the horizontal axis. I get around 19 and I’m either on the line or under the line. Basically, I found some unique shapes to really broaden my left and right, because I can throw a slider at 22 inches of horizontal and a changeup at 20 [in the opposite direction].” Read the rest of this entry »


On Pursuing the Self-Actualization of Henry Davis

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

When the Pittsburgh Pirates took Henry Davis first overall in 2021, they knew they were making a compromise. No matter what happened, even if he blew away everyone’s expectations, he was destined to only be the second-best hitter in big league history with the first name Henry and a last name that’s also a first name.

More than that, the Pirates took him knowing he probably wasn’t the best player in the draft. Davis received a signing bonus of just $6.5 million, only the fifth-highest number in the top six picks. Going way under slot allowed the Pirates to overpay for highly touted high schoolers with their next three picks, and I guess Bryan Bullington and Tony Sanchez no longer count as “in recent memory.”

Nevertheless, having the first pick is a rare gift, and you don’t want to blow it. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Add to 2024 Infield Mix With Oliver Dunn Trade

Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier today, the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers made a swap ahead of this year’s 40-man roster deadline, the last day teams have to either add eligible minor league players to their 40-man roster or expose them to December’s Rule 5 Draft. In this trade, the Brewers acquired 26-year-old second baseman Oliver Dunn and added him to their 40-man roster, while the Phillies received two prospects in return, 21-year-old infielder Robert Moore and 20-year-old outfielder Hendry Mendez.

Let’s start with Milwaukee’s end of this, as we’re most likely to see 2024 big league impact from Dunn, who is coming off an Arizona Fall League stint in which he won the league’s Breakout Prospect award. Dunn, whose brother Ross is in the Twins system, was a Yankees 2019 11th round pick out of Utah. He hit .196 coming out of the lost 2020 season, and spent a significant portion of both 2021 and 2022 on the IL dealing with multiple injuries, including a fractured jaw, an abdomen strain, and a hamstring strain.

The Phillies drafted him in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft and Dunn had a huge power breakout in 2023 at Double-A Reading, where he hit .271/.396/.506 and slugged 21 homers, more than he had hit throughout his entire career entering 2023. Reading is a hitter’s haven and Dunn was in his age-25 season, so there are good reasons to be skeptical of his sudden change in output, but his underlying power metrics also took a leap, with his average and peak exit velocities (92 mph and 112 mph, respectively) cresting above the big league average. This isn’t gigantic, impact power, but it’s meaningful pop for a second baseman. Dunn swings and misses quite a bit, especially within the strike zone (you can see him struggling with velo up and away from him, a Fall League theme for Dunn, in the video below), but he’s a dangerous all-fields hitter because of his power and ability to catch some fastballs deep in the hitting zone and punish them the other way. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Candidate: Hank Peters

Dick Raphael-USA TODAY Sports

This post is part of a series covering the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, covering candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. For an introduction to the ballot, see here. The eight candidates will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in Nashville on December 3, and anyone receiving at least 75% of the vote from the 16 committee members will be inducted in Cooperstown on July 21, 2024 along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA.

Hank Peters

In a career that spanned over four decades, from 1946 to ’91, Hank Peters helped lay the groundwork for two powerhouses: the mid-1970s A’s as an executive with their Kansas City forerunners, and the mid-1990s Cleveland squad as the team’s president and general manager from ’87-91. In between those stints, he served as the general manager of the Orioles from 1975 to ’87, navigating the dawn of free agency and making key trades that helped the team win at least 90 games six times, highlighted by a pennant in ’79 and a championship in ’83.

Peters wasn’t particularly colorful, but he was meticulous without being overbearing, with a keen eye for talent. From his Washington Post obituary in 2015: “Patient and unflappable, Mr. Peters did most of his work away from the public spotlight. The Baltimore Sun once likened his laid-back persona to that of a ‘rubber tree plant in an insurance office.'” Within the aforementioned Sun column, from 1985, his admirers found him to be “a rock,” “a great organizer, a great detail man,” and “the consummate baseball man.”

Peters is the only general manager among the eight candidates on this ballot, though Lou Piniella served in that role briefly with the Yankees. He’s one of only two executives on the ballot, along with former National League president Bill White, whose credentials also include stardom as a player and a stretch as a pioneering broadcaster. Read the rest of this entry »


Exploring a Second Alex Verdugo Trade

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s tough to defend one of the most unpopular trades of the past 10 years, but when Mookie Betts got traded to the Dodgers in 2020, some people tried. One of the most commonly grasped straws involved the centerpiece of the deal, Alex Verdugo. Nobody worth listening to said Verdugo was as good as Betts, who was at that point an MVP, the best player on the best team of the 2010s, and on a bullet train to Cooperstown. But Verdugo was a good player, of a similar type to Betts. He’s also three and a half years younger than Betts, and at the time of the trade had five seasons of team control left to Betts’ one.

And if you squint hard enough, you can see it. Verdugo, at his best, has the same strengths as Betts: hitting for contact, defense in right field, doubles power. Where the comparison falls apart is that Verdugo is merely good at those things, and an average regular overall, while Betts is among the best in the game at defense and contact hitting. And while Verdugo is good for about a dozen home runs a year, Betts averages 32 home runs and 22 stolen bases per 162 games played. Snatch is a pretty good gangster movie, but anyone who tells you it’s as good as The Godfather is trying to get one over on you.

Now, Verdugo does have something more concrete in common with Betts: He’s one year from free agency, and the Red Sox are shopping him. Read the rest of this entry »


Postseason Managerial Report Card: Bruce Bochy

Rob Schumacher/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK

As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things — getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable — but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Adolis García and Josh Jung were important, too. Forget trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Nathan Eovaldi is valuable because he’s great, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process.

One note: In the pitching section, I took a more specific look at reliever matchups. This 2022 Cameron Grove study measures a repeat-matchup reliever penalty. A recent article examines the issue without focusing on specific matchups, but rather looking at relievers pitching on back-to-back days or on short rest after heavy workloads. Both of these things are, unsurprisingly, bad for reliever performance. Managing the balance between starter and reliever over-work is really hard. I probably haven’t given enough credit to the necessity of balancing bullpen workloads against particular opposing batters in the past, but I’ll make a note of it going forward. Read the rest of this entry »


My 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Ballot

Corbin Carroll
Arizona Republic

The first of MLB’s major awards to be announced for 2023, the Rookie of the Year awards, were given out Monday evening, with Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson taking the laurels in the NL and AL races, respectively.

Getting inappropriately annoyed with year-end awards — more specifically in 1995, the year Mo Vaughn beat Albert Belle in the AL and Dante Bichette confusingly finished second in the NL — was one of the things that got me reading Usenet. A high schooler at the time, I had little idea that it was the start of a surprising career path. And even back then, I was frustrated that the writers who voted for these awards didn’t always make convincing arguments about their picks and, occasionally, offered no justifications at all.

I still believe that this kind of transparency is crucial for the legitimacy of any type of award. This is ostensibly an expert panel; if it’s not, there’s no purpose for the award to exist. As such, a secret ballot is not appropriate the way I believe it is for, say, a presidential or parliamentary election. So, as usual, this is my explanation (or apologia depending on your point of view) of why I voted the way I did. I don’t expect 100% of people to agree with my reasoning, which I doubt has happened for any opinion I’ve expressed ever, but that doesn’t mean I don’t owe you, the reader, the details of my vote.

This is my fifth Rookie of the Year vote. Previously, I gave my first-place votes to Spencer Strider, Trevor Rogers, Pete Alonso, and Corey Seager. This year, my ballot, starting at the top, was Carroll, the Mets’ Kodai Senga, and the Reds’ Matt McLain. Let’s start at the top. I’m also including preliminary 2024 ZiPS projections because, hey, why not? (They didn’t have any bearing on my vote, nor did the preseason projections.)

The Easy Part: Corbin Carroll

My last two first-place votes were close for me, and it took a while to decide on them. But this one was the easiest since Seager in 2016 (and I’m not forgetting Alonso versus Michael Soroka). Everyone expected Carroll to steamroll the league, and that’s just what he did. And while he didn’t have a Mike Trout-esque rookie season, who does?

For much of the season, Carroll logically was part of the MVP discussion, though by the time September rolled around, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts had an obvious advantage, with Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson being clearly superior, too. But if I had voted for the NL MVP, Carroll would have still landed somewhere in the back of my ballot. He hit .285/.362/.506, clubbed 25 homers and stole 50 bases, and played all three outfield positions at least respectably. He is the type of player for whom the phrase “speed kills” makes sense, because his skill set is broad enough that he can actually weaponize that speed. For the season, he was seventh in sprint speed, had dominating baserunning numbers beyond stolen bases, and in 90-foot splits, he was bested only by Elly De La Cruz.

ZiPS Projection – Corbin Carroll
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .279 .362 .485 555 99 155 27 12 21 90 61 141 39 129 10 5.4
2025 .275 .359 .480 571 104 157 28 10 23 94 64 139 39 127 10 5.4
2026 .272 .358 .474 570 104 155 28 9 23 95 65 133 37 125 10 5.2
2027 .273 .361 .479 568 105 155 29 8 24 95 67 129 36 127 9 5.4
2028 .272 .363 .479 566 105 154 29 8 24 94 69 125 33 128 9 5.3

The Still Pretty Easy Part: Kodai Senga

I’m inclined to like Senga considerably more than his WAR simply because he has a significant history of outperforming his peripherals in Japan as well, so there’s more basis for believing in his ERA than for the typical pitcher in this position. Because of that, I’m closer to bWAR on Senga (4.4) than I am to fWAR. If forced at gunpoint to name the Dan’s Brain WAR for Senga, I’d probably put him at 3.8–4.0 or so. Also, that’s a very weird use of a firearm.

There’s always a writer or two who complains about Japanese players being eligible for the RoY award, but I think the idea that they shouldn’t be is preposterous. Nippon Professional Baseball appears a bit closer to the majors than Triple-A ball in the U.S. is — something like Triple-A 1/2 — but it’s a very different kind of league. While Triple-A hitters may be easier than NPB hitters, you’re also facing a rather different style of play and plate approaches, and now that some of the recent rule changes have hit in the majors, Triple-A ball is roughly a not-as-good MLB.

Despite facing different types of hitters, a spate of different rules, and against the backdrop of New York pressure and a collapsing team behind him, Senga was one of the few players who could really be counted on there. He had some issues with walks early on, and to his credit, he adjusted. But it wasn’t actually his control that was the issue; he actually threw more strikes earlier in the season! Instead, the issue was that after putting up an out-of-zone swing rate above 30% in each of his last two seasons in Japan, he was down in the low-20s early on with the Mets. As time went on, he got a better feel on how to lure MLB batters to their doom; in the second half, his 31.1% out-of-zone swing rate was right where it was in Japan.

ZiPS Projection – Kodai Senga
Year W L ERA FIP G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2024 11 8 3.63 3.87 28 28 161.0 132 65 18 76 190 122 3.4
2025 10 7 3.72 3.94 26 26 150.0 126 62 17 69 171 119 3.0
2026 9 7 3.82 4.06 24 24 141.3 124 60 17 63 156 116 2.7
2027 8 7 3.98 4.24 22 22 129.0 118 57 17 58 138 111 2.3
2028 7 8 4.21 4.46 21 21 124.0 118 58 17 56 128 105 1.9

The Excruciating Part and the Fifth Wheel: Matt McLain versus Nolan Jones versus James Outman

I don’t see Rookie of the Year as necessarily meaning Most Valuable Rookie, but as Best Rookie. As such, in a kind of small-scale examination of Hall of Fame candidates’ peak versus career numbers, I don’t necessarily think measures against replacement are as important as in the MVP voting, which has directions that more strongly imply an emphasis on quantity.

Outman was probably the most valuable of the three hitters I listed above, but he also got a lot more playing time, winning the job from the start. Both McLain and Jones out-hit him from a quality standpoint, with a 128 wRC+ from McLain, a 135 from Jones, and a 118 from Outman. I might discount this if there were evidence from their minor league time that the major league time was flukier, but both played in Triple-A just about how you’d expect from their actual major league performances. Outman was an excellent player and a big part of why the Dodgers survived the loss of a lot of players, but I would have him fifth in a larger ballot because he wasn’t quite as good as McLain or Jones. Per WAA on Baseball-Reference, both McLain and Jones were well ahead of him.

McLain versus Jones was very difficult for me, and I went back and forth on it the entire Sunday I made my vote (the last day of the season). And it still wasn’t an obvious result, more a 51%–49% judgment; if asked on a different day, I might have said Jones instead of McLain. But at the end of the day, I had to pick one. McLain hit almost as well as Jones did and played the hardest non-catcher defensive position. I don’t like deciding based on small things, but it’s inevitable if the big things can’t settle the score. The slight nudge to McLain comes on the balance of having the more valuable defensive versatility (2B/SS for him versus 3B/OF for Jones) and the fact that he played for a team that was playing higher-leverage games all season, with a deep roster of prospects that could push him off a job at any time. The Rockies, meanwhile, were a basement dweller without a lot in the cupboard.

Jones may have just missed my ballot, but it’s no negative reflection on what was an excellent season. I was quite perturbed that he didn’t start the season in Colorado, with the Rockies apparently deciding that Mike Moustakas was nine years better in age than Jones, but they at least weren’t stubborn after he crushed pitchers in the Pacific Coast League. That wRC+ of 135 was an OPS+ of 138 if you like the simpler approach, and both numbers are park-adjusted, so he was Actual Good, not merely Coors Field Good.

ZiPS Projection – Matt McLain
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .245 .332 .444 482 73 118 25 4 21 83 55 148 18 107 3 3.4
2025 .250 .339 .457 501 78 125 27 4 23 88 59 147 18 112 3 3.9
2026 .249 .341 .458 518 81 129 28 4 24 92 63 148 17 113 3 4.1
2027 .246 .339 .453 528 83 130 28 3 25 94 65 147 16 111 4 4.1
2028 .244 .339 .445 528 83 129 28 3 24 93 66 146 14 109 4 4.0

ZiPS Projection – Nolan Jones
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .272 .366 .485 474 77 129 30 4 21 80 66 157 13 118 3 3.1
2025 .271 .365 .484 479 78 130 30 3 22 82 67 154 13 118 3 3.1
2026 .271 .366 .483 480 78 130 30 3 22 83 68 151 12 118 2 3.0
2027 .268 .363 .480 477 77 128 29 3 22 81 67 147 10 116 2 2.8
2028 .266 .362 .474 466 75 124 28 3 21 78 66 143 9 115 2 2.6

ZiPS Projection – James Outman
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .244 .337 .437 501 85 122 22 3 23 79 62 185 12 108 3 3.3
2025 .243 .337 .435 503 85 122 22 3 23 80 63 181 11 107 3 3.3
2026 .244 .340 .445 499 86 122 22 3 24 80 63 177 10 110 2 3.5
2027 .237 .333 .429 490 82 116 21 2 23 77 62 172 9 104 2 3.0
2028 .234 .330 .417 475 78 111 20 2 21 72 60 166 8 100 2 2.6

Short on Pitching: Bobby Miller, Eury Pérez, and Andrew Abbott

Outside of Senga, no pitcher was close to making my ballot, though these three came closest. The Dodgers should be greatly pleased about having Miller’s services, but his numbers weren’t enough to balance out a rather low innings total. Pérez not being called up until May was a handicap, and while the Marlins being cautious with his workload to the extent of giving him a bit of a mini-vacation in July may be good for his future, it’s hard to give a Rookie of the Year vote to someone who threw less than 100 innings. Abbott’s mid-rotation performance was absolutely needed by the Reds, but again, not quite enough.

ZiPS Projection – Bobby Miller
Year W L ERA FIP G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2024 10 7 3.76 3.57 26 26 138.7 119 58 13 38 128 114 2.4
2025 11 7 3.75 3.55 27 27 144.0 122 60 13 38 133 114 2.5
2026 11 7 3.77 3.56 28 28 150.3 128 63 14 39 138 114 2.6
2027 12 7 3.76 3.58 30 30 155.7 133 65 15 40 143 114 2.7
2028 11 8 3.87 3.65 30 30 156.0 134 67 15 40 140 111 2.5

ZiPS Projection – Eury Pérez
Year W L ERA FIP G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2024 8 6 3.72 3.85 27 27 121.0 106 50 16 42 138 120 2.5
2025 8 7 3.67 3.77 29 29 130.0 113 53 17 42 143 122 2.7
2026 9 7 3.66 3.72 30 30 137.7 119 56 17 41 147 122 3.0
2027 9 8 3.58 3.69 32 32 145.7 125 58 18 41 151 124 3.2
2028 10 7 3.58 3.67 32 32 148.3 128 59 18 39 150 125 3.3

ZiPS Projection – Andrew Abbott
Year W L ERA FIP G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2024 8 9 4.60 4.17 29 29 144.7 130 74 22 53 161 95 1.7
2025 8 9 4.48 4.08 29 29 144.7 129 72 21 50 160 98 1.8
2026 8 9 4.50 4.08 29 29 148.0 135 74 22 49 161 97 1.9
2027 8 9 4.53 4.11 30 30 147.0 136 74 22 47 156 97 1.8
2028 8 9 4.60 4.16 30 30 146.7 139 75 22 47 152 95 1.7

The Sixth Man: Patrick Bailey

Of the rest of the field, the closest to making my ballot was Bailey, who was absurdly good defensively in 2023. I could have voted for a player short on playing time; I clearly did with McLain and was close with Jones. But to vote for a hitter at any position who slashed .233/.285/.359 over Outman, McLain, and Jones, I’d need a lot more certainty with defensive numbers than I have. We’ve made great progress in evaluating defense, but it remains extremely volatile, meaning that we simply can’t count on a small sample of defensive data to the same degree as a small sample of offensive data.

I have little doubt that Bailey is an elite defensive catcher, but just how elite is crucial to advancing him over the others with only 97 games played. And it was just a bridge too far for me; if he had been the catcher at the start of the season, there would have likely been a little more flexibility on how to deal with a defense-only candidate.

ZiPS Projection – Patrick Bailey
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .228 .291 .366 382 45 87 18 1 11 45 32 112 2 81 13 2.7
2025 .233 .299 .382 377 46 88 18 1 12 46 33 108 2 87 13 3.0
2026 .234 .300 .387 367 45 86 18 1 12 45 32 103 2 89 13 3.0
2027 .234 .302 .390 354 44 83 17 1 12 44 32 99 2 90 13 3.0
2028 .229 .298 .379 340 42 78 16 1 11 42 31 94 2 86 12 2.6

The Best of the Rest: Spencer Steer, Francisco Alvarez, Elly De La Cruz, Ezequiel Tovar

Steer played the entire season but was basically a league-average starter — something that had value, but he was clearly behind several others in quality. Alvarez hit a lot of homers (25) but was rather one-note in his offensive contributions, though he really surprised with his framing numbers. Tovar was brilliant defensively, and it was nice to see him as a Gold Glove finalist, but his offense was well behind his glove.

De La Cruz was arguably the most exciting of the prospects, maybe even more than Carroll, but he still has some serious holes in his game that were exposed with time in the majors. At the very least, he’s going to need to shore up his plate discipline or become better at effectively connecting with junk in the way Tim Anderson was able to do at his peak.

ZiPS Projection – Spencer Steer
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .249 .331 .436 534 76 133 28 3 22 85 56 129 8 104 4 1.9
2025 .250 .330 .436 525 75 131 28 2 22 84 55 124 8 104 4 1.9
2026 .250 .332 .434 511 73 128 27 2 21 81 54 119 7 104 4 1.9
2027 .250 .332 .433 492 70 123 26 2 20 77 52 114 6 104 3 1.7
2028 .250 .331 .429 464 64 116 25 2 18 72 49 107 5 103 3 1.5

ZiPS Projection – Francisco Alvarez
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .230 .321 .436 422 61 97 18 0 23 73 51 131 2 107 0 2.4
2025 .236 .329 .449 441 67 104 19 0 25 79 56 131 2 112 1 2.9
2026 .240 .334 .459 442 69 106 19 0 26 82 57 126 2 116 1 3.2
2027 .241 .338 .461 440 69 106 19 0 26 83 59 122 2 118 1 3.4
2028 .244 .344 .466 438 70 107 19 0 26 84 61 119 2 121 1 3.6

ZiPS Projection – Elly De La Cruz
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .236 .298 .434 564 91 133 24 8 24 89 48 190 39 94 -2 2.4
2025 .239 .303 .441 585 98 140 26 7 26 97 52 185 40 97 -1 2.8
2026 .243 .308 .450 606 106 147 27 6 29 104 56 181 40 101 -1 3.3
2027 .247 .314 .465 608 110 150 28 6 31 107 59 173 38 106 0 3.8
2028 .248 .317 .465 606 111 150 29 5 31 108 61 166 35 107 0 3.9

ZiPS Projection – Ezequiel Tovar
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2024 .258 .300 .416 551 75 142 31 4 16 75 29 145 11 83 10 2.5
2025 .264 .307 .433 561 79 148 33 4 18 79 31 141 11 89 11 3.1
2026 .268 .313 .443 567 82 152 34 4 19 82 33 136 11 93 11 3.5
2027 .269 .315 .448 572 84 154 34 4 20 84 34 132 10 95 12 3.6
2028 .271 .318 .454 573 86 155 34 4 21 85 36 128 10 97 12 3.9

2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Candidate: Cito Gaston

Cito Gaston
Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

This post is part of a series covering the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, covering candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. For an introduction to the ballot, see here. The eight candidates will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in Nashville on December 3, and anyone receiving at least 75% of the vote from the 16 committee members will be inducted in Cooperstown on July 21, 2024 along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA.

2024 Contemporary Baseball Candidate: Manager Cito Gaston
Manager G W-L W-L% G>.500 Playoffs Pennants WS
Cito Gaston 1731 894-837 .516 57 4 2 2
AVG HOF Mgr 3662 1968-1674 .540 294 7 6 2.6

Cito Gaston

After Jackie Robinson integrated the National League in 1947, it took 28 years — not to mention pointed public comments from Robinson himself just before his death — for a team to hire a Black manager, namely Frank Robinson, who piloted Cleveland starting in 1975. Such was the slow pace of change that it took another 14 years for two teams with Black managers to square off in the same game, when Robinson’s Orioles and Cito Gaston’s Blue Jays met on June 26, 1989. Three years later, Gaston carved out an even bigger spot in baseball history when he became the first Black manager to lead a team to a World Series victory, a feat he and the Blue Jays repeated in 1993.

During his time in the dugout, Gaston earned a reputation for putting trust in his players (sometimes to a fault) and being approachable, creating a calm and stable working environment. Even so, he spent only eight full seasons and parts of four others as a major league manager and was never hired by a team besides the Blue Jays. After falling short in multiple interviews, he was outspoken regarding the process, expressing a belief that he was sometimes just the token minority included in a team’s search for a new manager. That said, he also expressed a take-it-or-leave-it attitude to the job and often seemed happier as a hitting coach, a role he held for nine seasons and change in Toronto. Gaston is the only one of the four managers on this Era Committee ballot to win multiple World Series. The question is whether that should push him to the front of the line in this context despite his career length. Read the rest of this entry »


Postseason Managerial Report Card: Torey Lovullo

Torey Lovullo
Arizona Republic

As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things — getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable — but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Corbin Carroll and Evan Carter were important, too. Forget trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Corey Seager is valuable because he’s great, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process.

One note: In the pitching section, I took a more specific look at reliever matchups. This 2022 Cameron Grove study measures a repeat-matchup reliever penalty. A recent article examines the issue without focusing on specific matchups, but rather looking at relievers pitching on back-to-back days or on short rest after heavy workloads. Both of these things are, unsurprisingly, bad for reliever performance. Managing the balance between starter and reliever over-work is really hard. I probably haven’t given enough credit to the necessity of balancing bullpen workloads against particular opposing batters in the past, but I’ll make a note of it going forward.

I’ve already covered the losing managers of the Wild Card round, the various Division Series eliminations, the ALCS, and the NLCS. Today, it’s Torey Lovullo’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »