For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the penultimate team is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals experienced a bit of a bounce back from the team’s worst season in decades, but in a year where it took 89 wins to grab the final NL Wild Card spot, the Red Birds were still well short of being able to squeeze back into the playoffs. While things were sunnier than they were the year before, the Cardinals were outscored on the season, and neither of the stars in the lineup, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, returned to their 2023 form. It doesn’t appear as if the Cards feel like they’re on the precipice of an October return, as they’ve largely spent the offseason trying to trade Arenado.

Might Arenado actually be underrated at this point? While his offensive production has come down quite a bit from its peak, his 149 wRC+ in 2022 was likely always a late-era outlier, and a 102 wRC+ is hardly lousy for a third baseman. He’s no longer a star without a resurgence at the plate, but he was at least a good player in 2024, amassing 3.1 WAR thanks to very good defense at the hot corner. I think the perception of Arenado’s 2024 might be a lot worse than his season actually was. When I posted the depth chart graphic on social media, it led to a couple of conversations about ZiPS projecting a comeback season, even though the 2.9 WAR it forecasts is below his 2024 number!

With two glaring exceptions, ZiPS mostly thinks that the Cards are adequate to good around the diamond. Masyn Winn projects as the lineup’s second-best player, and though ZiPS isn’t crazy about Thomas Saggese, it likes Brendan Donovan enough to end up with a good second base WAR number, assuming the latter gets the plate appearances projected on our Depth Charts. The system projects that Willson Contreras will be good enough offensively that he could be a reasonable first baseman, and though it pulls back considerably on Iván Herrera’s rookie offense, the tandem of him and Pedro Pagés also looks solid.

Where ZiPS is unhappy is in the non-Lars Nootbaar portions of the outfield. In center field, Victor Scott II’s defense isn’t enough to completely cancel out a bleak offensive projection, and the computer doesn’t see Michael Siani as providing much of a shove. Scott’s a weird one to project in that he actually hit pretty decently in Double-A in 2023, but he was absolutely horrific in the minors last year, putting up a 59 wRC+. Note that that’s not the translation, but his actual number. Scott hit somewhat better in July after changing his stance, putting up a .711 OPS for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds, but that hint of production disappeared in the majors and he earned a demotion in mid-September.

As for the other exception, Jordan Walker, ZiPS actually thinks he improved his defense somewhat in 2024, to the point that he’s not a pure designated hitter, just a fairly lousy right fielder who could play if he hits. But that’s kind of the problem. Walker now has about 500 PA of not hitting Triple-A pitchers. If Scott had a 93 wRC+ at Triple-A, it would be cause for optimism, but it’s completely inadequate for someone who is supposed to be valued entirely for his bat. Walker isn’t old, and you can squint and still kind of see his upside, but the odds are against him being a real contributor in 2025.

Pitchers

I’m not sure why ZiPS is suddenly reminded of a couple of knuckleballers, Phil Niekro and Tom Candiotti, when it looks at Sonny Gray, but removing them from the large cohort doesn’t change Gray’s projection, which makes him the favorite to represent the Cardinals at the All-Star Game this summer. It’s hard to tell how seriously the team really considered trading Gray, but he does have some pretty decent value with two years left on his contract. Of course, that assumes that his forearm tendinitis isn’t something darker, but really, you could say that about every pitcher who has ever existed.

He projects as having lower long-term upside than either Quinn Mathews or Tink Hence, but ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Michael McGreevy, who has good control and keeps the ball down, which has value in front of what ZiPS projects to be an above-average infield. Both Mathews and Hence project as legitimate starters right now, with ZiPS a little more confident about the former for 2025. ZiPS isn’t expecting quite as good a year from Erick Fedde, but it remains comfortable with the back of St. Louis’ rotation, both in terms of its non-horrendous quality and its reasonable depth.

It might be a stretch to say that ZiPS sees the Cardinals bullpen as “Ryan Helsley and some other guys,” but their hard-throwing closer is the only reliever who the computer can summon any excitement about. Helsley lost a couple of strikeouts per game coming back from his 2023 injuries, but ZiPS isn’t worried about that, as his velocity is intact and his contact rate is consistent with that of a whiffier pitcher. Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, and John King all project as a bit above average, and the computer would put Matthew Liberatore in that group as well. ZiPS is rather meh on the low-leverage portion of the bullpen, and while the Cardinals could certainly add an arm or two there, this doesn’t appear to be a team that intends to make so much as a ripple in free agency.

Unlike most seasons, ZiPS does’t see the Cardinals as being in the same tier as the Brewers and Cubs. St. Louis has better projections than the Pirates and Reds, at least for now, but even then, only barely. It has been an incredibly quiet offseason in St. Louis outside of the constant Arenado rumors, with the team doing just about nothing, and we’re now only a few weeks from the opening of spring training. The team’s biggest signing this winter? Ryan Vilade. Even throwing in the towel would be more interesting, and probably more helpful than cosplaying as the heat death of the universe.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a reputation of getting the best out of previously undervalued pitchers, and Garrett Cleavinger is a prime example. Acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in August 2022 in exchange for German Tapia, the 30-year-old southpaw was subsequently limited to 12 games in 2023 due to a knee injury, but a breakout was right around the corner. Cleavinger made a career-high 68 appearances last year, logging a 3.75 ERA and a 26.7 strikeout rate over 60 relief innings. His ledger included seven wins and six saves.

A high-octane heater was one of his best weapons; at 96.3 mph, Cleavinger’s four-seamer ranked in the 84th percentile for velocity. With that in mind, I asked the Lawrence, Kansas native if he identifies as a power pitcher.

“It’s a part of my game,” Cleavinger told me at the close of the 2024 campaign. “I’m definitely not a pinpoint command guy like some pitchers are — I wish I was a little bit better in that aspect — but power stuff coming out of the pen does kind of fit the description for me.”

Possessor of a varied arsenal is another accurate description. The erstwhile University of Oregon closer now features five-pitches, only one of which he threw less than 10 percent of the time. Per Baseball Savant, the breakdown was: cutter 26.3%, four-seamer 24.8%, slider 22.0%, sweeper 17.4%, and two-seamer 9.5%. Two of those were recent additions. Read the rest of this entry »

Junior Analyst, Baseball Strategy and Information

Department: Baseball Strategy and Information
Status: Full Time
Reports to: Director, Baseball Strategy and Information
Salary: $23.00/hour*

*Compensation rates vary based on job-related factors, including experience, job skills, education, and training.

The Baseball Strategy and Information team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for supporting the Major League Coaching Staff and Baseball Operations leadership group with data and information needed for strategic decision making. As a Junior Analyst, you will work with other members of the Baseball Strategy and Information team to build reports and visualizations to communicate insights clearly and concisely to stakeholders. This position offers the opportunity to push the boundaries of conventional thinking, grow analytically by solving challenging problems, and collaborate with leaders throughout Baseball Operations. As a member of the Baseball Strategy and Information team, you will see your work impact the Major League team on a nightly basis.

Essential Duties/Responsibilities:

• Coordinate and execute a selection of R scripts on a daily, series, and ad-hoc basis, which produce reports containing data and visualizations for Major League Coaching staff and Baseball Operations Leadership.
• Interpret data and conduct in-depth analysis on players, team strategy, and in-game tactics, providing insights and observations to enhance coaching and decision making.
• Support Data Collection and Data Management processes involving a variety of tracking and training technologies.
• Work with Performance Science and Quantitative Analysis departments on the development of new proprietary metrics.
• Collaborate across departments within Baseball Operations to advance various initiatives related to player evaluation and process automation.
• Assist with on-boarding and training of interns within Baseball Operations
• Occasional travel to represent the department outside of LA, such as an annual Spring Training trip, road trips with the club, affiliate visits, and scouting trips.
• Complete ad-hoc research using SQL and R/Python to enhance in-game strategy and/or player improvement as requested.

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in a STEM field (or equivalent experience)
• 1+ Years of Experience with R or Python in a non-classroom environment
• Familiarity with SQL, Git, and cloud-based computing
• Experience playing on a sports team or working with a sports organization is preferred (college or professional)
• Ability to relocate to Los Angeles and commute to Dodger Stadium
• Ability to work frequent overtime including evenings, weekends, and holidays. Overtime compensation will be provided according to company policy and applicable laws.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Pro Player Analyst
Developer-Baseball Systems

Pro Player Analyst

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals Baseball Club is seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Under the direction of the Assistant Director of Research & Development/Player Personnel and the Director of Pro Personnel & Strategy, the analyst will be involved in several stages of the player evaluation process to meet the needs of the organization. The successful applicant will leverage baseball data to provide a competitive edge when evaluating players for the Kansas City Royals. This role will be located in Kansas City, MO.

Position Accountabilities/Responsibilities:

• Provide data driven insights to help evaluate both pitchers and position players.
• Collaborate with other analysts and Baseball Operations personnel to provide support at all stages of the player evaluation process
• Query and organize data to effectively communicate
• Perform ad-hoc analysis to assist in decision making processes
• Work to create, advance, and or maintain machine learning models

Position Qualifications, Skills, and Experience Required:

• 4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field
• Proficiency with SQL and R to query and organize data from large databases
• Strong understanding of advanced baseball metrics to evaluate players
• Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, scouts, and other Baseball Operations personnel
• Familiarity with the landscape of Major League Baseball. e.g. teams, affiliates, rosters, prospects, free agents, etc.
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours during the baseball season

Preferred Qualifications:

• Record of published baseball research and or experience ranking / evaluating players
• Intimate knowledge of MLB rosters, farm systems, free agency, and all things involving player personnel
• Experience with machine learning and modeling techniques to extract actionable insights within large data sets

Physical Requirements:

• Ability to lift items weighing as much as 25 pounds
• Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
• Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
• Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
• Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
• Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Developer-Baseball Systems

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America – Virtual

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals Baseball Club is seeking a highly motivated developer to work with our group of Developers to support baseball operations. The ideal applicant will be able to manage multiple concurrent projects that facilitate enhanced communications, reporting, and other interactions between teams internal to the organization. At this time, we are open to the possibility of Remote work for the right candidate.

Position Accountabilities/Responsibilities:

• Assist in development tasks and data operations
• Help with system administration of database and web servers
• Assist in daily task monitoring to ensure data health, quality assurance, and reliability of systems
• Automate reports and other tasks that are used on a regular basis
• Support schema and testing of databases of various sizes
• Maintain and support existing code across various languages and frameworks
• Develop, test, and optimize performance and accuracy of scripts used to calculate derived data
• Design, build, and deploy new features for organizational web applications
• Automate, manage, and report data lifecycle based on retention and storage requirements
• Explore novel tools to visualize data and explore models by implementing UI/UX in HTML, CSS, JavaScript/Vue.js
• Develop responsive front-end designs suitable for multiple devices and screen sizes
• Collaborate with baseball operations staff to create and improve internal analysis and informational tools.
• Help ensure that systems and solutions are in line with organizational objectives

Position Qualifications, Skills, and Experience Required:

• 4 year degree in computer science, electrical engineering, or related field or equivalent experience is required
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours during the baseball season is a must
• Excellent interpersonal and communications skills and ability to interact and work with staff at all levels
• Ability to recognize and maintain confidentiality of work materials and issues as appropriate
• Experience with the following tools, platforms, and business data is required:
• Two years of experience with Python
• Strong knowledge of SQL
• Strong knowledge of Django, Flask, or similar
• Basic administration of UNIX-based servers (Linux, Mac, etc.)
• Managing cloud resources on AWS or a similar platform
• Interest in and knowledge of UI/UX and web development technologies such as HTML5, JavaScript, Vue.js, Vite, ChartJS
• Experience with the following tools, platforms and business data is preferred:
• Business intelligence experience is a plus
• Baseball knowledge and exposure to baseball statistics

Physical Requirements:

• Ability to lift items weighing as much as 25 pounds
• Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
• Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
• Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
• Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Kansas City Royals.

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this years introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

The Tigers got a bit more attention simply because they seemed so dead in the water in July, but Kansas City’s 30-win improvement from the year before – and the even more impressive 35-win improvement in Pythagorean wins – was damn impressive. Victory may have a thousand fathers, but Bobby Witt Jr. was the big daddy of this feat, missing out on an MVP award only because he plays in the same league as peak Aaron Judge. ZiPS isn’t keen to project 7- or 8-WAR seasons as the baseline expectation based on a single season, but Witt’s projection still is that of a serious MVP candidate, and among players over the next five years, his WAR projection is less than those of only Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani. His nearly $290 million deal with the Royals is, in the early days, looking like one of the best team investments of all time.

ZiPS is naturally excited about Witt, but that excitement doesn’t carry over to the rest of the team. This probably isn’t a surprise considering that other than Witt, only Salvador Perez finished with 2 WAR among Royals hitters in 2024. If you rank Kansas City’s hitters from last season, and add up the five best after Witt, they still add up to a full win short of the franchise shortstop.

That being said, it’s not exactly a Darryl Strawberry-playing-with-Springfield-Nuclear-Plant-employees situation. ZiPS expects the Royals to get around 2 WAR at most positions, with projections for Perez, Jonathan India, and Maikel Garcia crossing the two-win line in 2025. And if Michael Massey and Vinnie Pasquantino end up playing in more games than the 120-something that ZiPS projects for them, they each would also be worth more than 2 WAR. Witt may stand alone as a superstar in this lineup, but the Royals do have some solid talent here.

What is disappointing, given how competitive the projections are for the Royals as a whole and how close they are to the Guardians and Twins, is that Kansas City didn’t make a more vigorous attempt to upgrade its corner outfield spots. MJ Melendez hasn’t done anything that ought to entitle him to be the default option in left field, even if you look at his sunnier Steamer and OOPSY projections. If you subscribe to the ZiPS projection for Melendez, the Royals, as of now, look to enter the season as a reigning playoff team with a replacement-level corner outfield. Kansas City is projected to get positive value from its left fielders overall, but only because our Depth Charts is factoring in some time for India out there, and ZiPS doesn’t like right fielder Hunter Renfroe much more than it does Melendez. Right now, it looks like the value of four of Witt’s wins will do nothing more than offset the roughly replacement-level production of those two outfielders. Then again, that’s kind of what happened last year; while Witt posted a 10-win season, Royals corner outfielders combined for about -1.0 WAR. At the moment, ZiPS is projecting their corner outfielders to be worth about 1.3 WAR. That’s an improvement, yes, but as I mentioned up top, ZiPS projects Witt to be worth about four wins less than he was last season. That’s still a six-win season, but as things stand, the Royals are projected to get about two fewer wins of total value from the three positions — shortstop, left field, and right field — this year (7.3) than they did last year (9.4).

Pitchers

ZiPS may think that the Royals have the offense of a 68-win team plus Witt, but it thinks they have a rotation that’s in the top third of the league, a more bullish outlook than the other projections. It’s not shocking that ZiPS projects Cole Ragans to have a 4-WAR season, based on Depth Charts’ projected innings for him. (Below, you’ll see ZiPS has him at 2.9 WAR, but that’s only because it projects him to throw fewer innings.) But what might be surprising is how little Seth Lugo is projected to drop off from his superb 2024 season, when he finished second in the Cy Young voting. If Witt makes up for some of the sins for the offense, the Ragans-Lugo one-two punch covers up some more of them. Michael Wacha projects as a solid no. 3 starter, and though ZiPS doesn’t love Alec Marsh, it does like Kris Bubic quite a bit. It also thinks that pitchers like Michael Lorenzen and Kyle Wright are more than capable of filling out a decent rotation.

From a projection standpoint, Noah Cameron might be the most interesting Royals starter. He’s a soft-tosser, with a fastball in the low 90s, but he has excellent command and, most importantly, he avoided getting his brains beaten in by Triple-A hitters, which is a frequent fate of pitchers of this type. Instead, opposing batters had a very low average exit velocity against him (under 83 mph). And thanks to his changeup and curveball, which are both plus pitches, he also struck out 29% of the Triple-A batters he faced. A control pitcher who can avoid hard contact and knows how to get some strikeouts is someone worth watching.

ZiPS projects the bullpen to be right around league average, thanks in large part to Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, both picked up last July for the pennant race (and beyond). Considered just as a reliever, Angel Zerpa would have a projected 3.65 ERA, an slight improvement over his solid 2024 season. John Schreiber gets a fairly good projection as well, but after that, ZiPS is less impressed with Kansas City’s relief options. If the Royals are not going to fix their outfield in free agency – and they may not be able to do that anymore because most of the quality guys have already signed — they might want to get another arm or two to improve their bullpen.

From a preliminary standpoint, ZiPS projects Kansas City to finish with 82-85 wins in 2025. That’s tantalizingly close to competing on equal terms with the Twins and Guardians, close enough that the Royals should keep adding this offseason to pull ahead of their division rivals and make a run at another postseason appearance.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.