It’s Logan Morrison’s birthday today. Now 32 years young, “LoMo” is in his tenth big-league season… albeit just barely. He’s seen action in just seven games this summer, having toiled exclusively in Triple-A prior to being called up by the Phillies on August 14. Two years removed from a 38-home-run campaign with the Tampa Bay Rays, Morrison has essentially morphed from a bona fide slugger into a player barely hanging on.

His winter had been a waiting game. A free agent as of Halloween, Morrison received a few non-roster invites, but coming off of hip surgery he didn’t want to risk “showing up and then getting cut from camp.” In search of more security, he bided his time.

Morrison eventually signed with the Yankees in mid-April, joined Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in early May, and played there until July 1. At that point, with his chances of a promotion seemingly scant — this despite a healthy .999 OPS — he executed the opt-out clause in his contract. He then hooked on with the Phillies following the All-Star break.

Never a shrinking violet when it comes to expressing an opinion, LoMo was candid when addressing the limited interest he received over the offseason. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite last week’s home run heroics by Bryce Harper, the Phillies’ playoff hopes have faded in recent weeks, and it doesn’t appear as though things will get easier going forward. On Saturday, the team revealed that Jake Arrieta, who had landed on the injured list with a bone spur in his right elbow earlier in the week, will undergo season-ending surgery later this month, and that reliever David Robertson had undergone Tommy John surgery earlier in the week. While neither situation was entirely unexpected, together the injuries highlight the mix of misfortune and underperformance that have placed the Phillies — who at 64-60 are nine games out in the NL East, and 1 1/2 back in the Wild Card race — in this position.

The 33-year-old Arrieta hadn’t missed a single start before landing on the IL, but had been increasingly ineffective as the season worn on. Following a pretty good April (3.46 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 6.5 innings per start), he had pitched to a 5.12 ERA and 5.12 FIP the rest of the way while averaging just 5.37 innings per start; he hadn’t completed the sixth inning since June 30. On July 7, after an outing in which he’d been touched for 11 hits and hit three batters in 4.1 innings against the Mets, a team source told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb that he was pitching through a bone spur. The spur, which is the size of a marble, has apparently bothered Arrieta for the past two seasons, and is the recurrence of a spur he had removed eight years ago, while a member of the Orioles.

The Phillies were aware of the bone spur — which raises the question of why they settled for Jason Vargas as their lone rotation addition at the July 31 deadline — and had monitored Arrieta, who had worked to find different grips to help alleviate the pain that particularly hampered him when throwing his curve and changeup. He had become much more reliant upon the latter pitch in recent years, and was using the former much more often as this season went on:

Per Pitch Info, Arrieta had thrown the changeup 18.3% of the time this year, up from 10.4% last year and 7.4% in 2017. The change has been fairly effective for him this year, with a 46.2% O-Swing rate, a 15.2% swinging strike rate, and a 64 wRC+ on plate appearances ending with the pitch. His swinging strike rate on the curve had dropped by half relative to last year, from 13.0% to 6.5%, even as his wRC+ on PAs ending with the pitch dropped from 141 to 51.

Arrieta’s final numbers — 4.64 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 9.9 K-BB%, and 1.0 WAR in 135.2 innings — mark the fourth straight season in which he’s declined in all of those categories, while his 18.5% strikeout rate marked his fifth straight season of decline. That’s an ominous trend for any pitcher, and it’s one likely to carry significant financial ramifications for Arrieta, who has one more year and $20 million remaining on a three-year, $75 million deal signed in March 2018. Arrieta could opt out of his contract this winter, but would hit the market on the heels of his worst season since breaking through with the Cubs in 2014. If he does opt out, the Phillies can override that by restoring his $20 million 2020 salary and exercising a two-year, $40 million option for 2021-22, one whose annual salaries would have escalated to $25 million or higher based on starts (beginning at 25 starts; he had 24 this year) and top-three Cy Young award finishes.

While the Phillies entered the season with a rotation that placed 12th in our Positional Power Rankings, the unit as a whole entered Sunday ranked 16th in the majors in ERA- (103, via a 4.57 ERA), 26th in FIP- (110, via a 4.98 FIP), and 24th in home run rate (1.64 per nine). Aaron Nola is the only starter who has been better than average in both ERA and FIP:

Arrieta’s loss for the remainder of the season returns Eflin to the starting five; he was ousted when Vargas was acquired. Velazquez and Smyly, the latter of whom was picked up after being released by the Rangers earlier this year, round out the unit right now, with Pivetta having been relegated to the bullpen.

Speaking of which… the 34-year-old Robertson, whom the Phillies signed to a two-year, $23-million deal in January, arrived from the Bronx with a reputation as one of the most durable and reliable relievers in the game — “about as steady as it gets,” as Jeff Sullivan illustrated at the time of the signing. He was one of only two pitchers to throw at least 60 major league innings every year from 2010 (his first full season in the majors) through 2018; Tyler Clippard was the other. During that span, only the well-traveled Clippard and the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen threw more innings out of the bullpen than his 589.2, and only Aroldis Chapman, Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel delivered more value than his 13.4 WAR. He had evolved somewhat as a pitcher in that span, as Sullivan pointed out, using his breaking stuff with increasing frequency relative to his cut fastball with no loss of effectiveness. He had also shown a welcome flexibility, working as a closer, a setup man, and a fireman who might show up in the fifth or six inning  — or even the third — if the occasion merited it, all without complaint, making him an ideal addition for any aspiring contender.

Alas, Robertson struggled out of the gate for the Phillies, and after making seven appearances totaling 6.2 innings, hit the injured list in mid-April with a Grade 1 flexor strain. He began ramping up towards a return in late June, but his progress was slow, and he suffered setbacks. By the end of July, it appeared that he would need season-ending surgery for the flexor, with Tommy John surgery a possibility. After a consultation with Dr. James Andrews, he underwent the surgery last Thursday, which could cost him all of next season as well as the remainder of this one. The Phillies do hold a $12 million club option with a $2 million buyout for his services in 2021.

If Robertson’s injury were an isolated problem within the Phillies’ bullpen, they probably could have overcome it, but the unit that placed fourth in our preseason Positional Power Rankings has lost five of its six top forecast relievers to injuries, and all of them are still sidelined:

Thus, the Phillies’ relief corps — which entered Sunday ranked ninth in the NL in bullpen ERA (4.65) and 12th in FIP (4.93) and WAR (0.0) — has lost more player-days and dollars to the injured list than that of any other team. Excluding position players, they’ve used 26 relievers. Via Spotrac:

Note that on the rankings page, the Mariners show up with a higher dollar figure than the Phillies; for some reason, the site has classified Félix Hernández as a reliever, though all eight of his appearances before hitting the IL with a shoulder strain were as a starter. I’ve removed his data from the above table, and likewise other misclassified pitches including Velazquez and the Nationals’ Jeremy Hellickson.

Dominguez, who received a platelet-rich plasma injection on June 14, began a throwing program in early August, and there’s still hope he can return this year. Neshek received a PRP injection for his Grade 2 hamstring strain in July and is hopeful for a September return. Morgan is set to be re-examined on Wednesday, at which point his timeline will be clarified.

While those returns would be helpful — particularly that of Dominguez — they’re not likely to change the trajectory of the team’s season. The Phillies held at least a share of first place in the NL East for nearly the entire season up through June 11, but they’ve gone just 27-30 since then as the injuries have caught up, and the Mets’ recent surge has left Philadelphia scrambling to hold on to third place in the division. This graph of their division playoff odds tells the sad story:

The Phillies aren’t out of contention yet, but if they do come up short, it won’t all be on Harper and the lineup’s other newcomers for their comparatively lukewarm performances. That hasn’t helped, but in the end, it will be the slew of pitching injuries that does them in.

Last night, the Cubs entered the bottom the ninth inning with a 5-1 lead and a 98.3% chance of winning the game according to our Play Logs. After recording the first out, the win probability moved up to 99.4%, but after an error, three singles, and a hit batter, the Cubs’ lead was cut to 5-3 and Bryce Harper stepped up to the plate against Derek Holland with the bases loaded, and the Phillies’ win expectancy had moved up to 32.3%. Then it moved up to 100% when this happened:

As far as pitches go, it wasn’t necessarily a bad one. There have been over 500 pitches this season of at least 94 mph in a left-on-left matchup where the pitcher hit the inside corner or further inside. Only 35 such pitches resulted in base hits, with a .276 BABIP and .143 ISO. There were only four homers on pitches like that, and after last night, Harper has two of them, with another coming in June off Max Fried.

Harper’s homer last night took a long time to land. Read the rest of this entry »

We have a sizable collection of players to talk about this week because the two of us have been busy wrapping up our summer looks at the 2020 Draft class over the last couple weeks. This equates to every prospect added to or moved on THE BOARD since the Trade Deadline.

Top 100 Changes
We had two players enter the 50 FV tier in Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo and Padres C Luis Campusano. Perdomo is in the “Advanced Baseball Skills” player bucket with players like Vidal Brujan, Brayan Rocchio and Xavier Edwards. He’s added visible power since first arriving in the States and had as many walks as strikeouts at Low-A before he was promoted to the Cal League, which has been Campusano’s stomping ground all summer. He’s still not a great catcher but he does have an impact arm, big power, and he’s a good enough athlete that we’re optimistic he’ll both catch and make the necessary adjustments to get to his power in games down the line.

We also moved a D-back and a Padre down in RHP Taylor Widener and 1B Tirso Ornelas. Widener has been very homer prone at Triple-A a year after leading the minors in K’s. His fastball has natural cut rather than ride and while we still like him as a rotation piece, there’s a chance he continues to be very susceptible to the long ball. Ornelas has dealt with injury and swing issues.

On Aristides Aquino
Aristides Aquino was a 50 FV on the 2017 Reds list; at the time, he was a traditional right field profile with big power undermined by the strikeout issues that would eventually cause his performance to tank so badly that he became a minor league free agent. A swing change visually similar to the one Justin Turner made before his breakout (Reds hitting coach Turner Ward comes from the Dodgers) is evident here, so we’re cautiously optimistic Aquino will be a productive role player, but we don’t think he’ll keep up a star’s pace. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 trade deadline has passed and, with it, dozens of prospects have begun a new journey toward the major leagues with a different organization. We have all of the prospects who have been traded since the Nick Solak/Peter Fairbanks deal ranked below, with brief scouting snippets for each of them. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of were analyzed at length on this site. Those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “From” column below. We’ve moved all of the players below to their new orgs over on THE BOARD, so you can see where they rank among their new teammates; our farm rankings, which now update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up post-deadline. Thanks to the scouts, analysts, and executives who helped us compile notes on players we didn’t know about.
Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies signed Andrew McCutchen in the offseason and he played very well before going down with a knee injury in early June. Right before the injury, the club traded for Jay Bruce in part due to Odubel Herrera being placed on leave under the league’s domestic violence policy. Since that time, Herrera has been suspended for the rest of the season while Bruce has landed on the injured list. Again seeking outfield help, the Phillies have now made a deal with the Pirates for Corey Dickerson. Jeff Passan was first with the news.

Phillies Receive:

• Corey Dickerson

Pirates Receive:

• ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

After putting up 2.6 WAR and a 115 wRC+ in 2017 for the Rays, the arbitration-eligible Dickerson was traded to the Pirates for Daniel Hudson and his contract. For the Pirates last season, Dickerson put up an identical 115 wRC+ and a 2.7 WAR. He dramatically lowered his strikeouts with the Pirates to make up for a loss of power and only 21 walks all year. A week into this season, Dickerson strained his shoulder and was replaced by rookie Bryan Reynolds, who has been very good for Pittsburgh, though a BABIP over .400 is doing a lot of the work. Dickerson, a free agent at the end of the season, has come back strong from the injury with a 133 wRC+ in 142 plate appearances. He’s kept the gains he made last season on the strikeout front, but he has been a much more patient hitter with a 9% walk rate in limited time. Dan Szymborski recently listed Dickerson as an under-the-radar move this deadline:

Corey Dickerson is unsigned for next season and it’s hard to see the Pirates being gung-ho about bringing him back on a larger, guaranteed contract. Dickerson’s healthy now and is putting up his typical wRC+ around 120. Given that he can actually field his position, I personally think he’s far more interesting a pickup than Nicholas Castellanos would be. The Pirates aren’t technically out of the playoff picture, but as they now have the second-worst record in the National League, the camera can’t see them standing behind the large adult sons.

Dickerson is likely to replace Adam Haseley, who has played fairly well in limited time but doesn’t have the proven bat Dickerson provides. The team went a couple weeks without a Bruce-type hitter, and now they have another one in Dickerson. This is mostly a depth move, but Dickerson provides the Phillies with another solid bat in their lineup and could put Scott Kingery more often in the infield, as Jim Salisbury notes: Read the rest of this entry »

Blake Parker, who signed with the Phillies as a free agent today for terms not yet disclosed, struck out 33.9% of the batters he faced as an Angel in 2017 and walked just 6.3%. That performance earned him two consecutive one-year, $1.8 million deals: one with the Angels, for 2018, and one with the Twins for this year. Parker wasn’t all that effective in Minnesota, though, posting a 5.35 FIP over 36.1 innings pitched, and he lost Rocco Baldelli’s confidence in July, earning just six appearances after getting 12 in June. Now he’s a Phillie, after the Twins designated him for assignment on July 24 and he cleared waivers three days later.

The problem in 2019 appears on the surface to be velocity, especially on the fastball. That pitch was averaging 93.9 mph just two years ago, then dropped down to 92.8 last year and 92 so far this year. Parker can succeed without a fastball at 94 — he posted a 2.90 FIP over 46 innings with the Cubs in 2013 while it sat at 92.8 — but he threw his curveball nearly a third of the time back then, and that pitch has never been particularly effective. In late 2018, he added a cut fastball that he now throws about 7% of the time, almost entirely at the expense of his four-seamer, but the overall package just hasn’t come together. His strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are both down even as contact against him is up:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies have bolstered the back-end of a flagging rotation, which by some measures ranks among the National League’s worst. What’s more, they’ve done so through an upgrade obtained from within the division, namely the Mets’ Jason Vargas. The 36-year-old southpaw doesn’t light up radar guns or dominate hitters, but he does give a youngish rotation a left-handed presence with playoff experience — and at a negligible cost to boot. His being dealt by the Mets was highly anticipated, not only given Sunday’s acquisition of Marcus Stroman, but also because he angered the Mets’ brass with his involvement in a clubhouse altercation with a beat reporter in June.

Philadelphia gets:

LHP Jason Vargas
Cash considerations

New York gets:

C Austin Bossart

Vargas, who is now in his 14th major league season, has rebounded from a dreadful, injury-wracked 2018, during which he was torched for a 5.77 ERA and 5.02 FIP in just 92 innings, and an ugly beginning to this year when he yielded 10 runs in his first 6.1 innings and failed to last five innings in three of his first four starts. Overall, he’s pitched to a 4.01 ERA and 4.71 FIP, and since returning from a mid-May left hamstring strain that cost him 19 days, he’s turned in a 3.34 ERA and 4.01 FIP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below are some changes we made to The BOARD in the past week, with our reasons for doing so. All hail the BOARD.

Moved Up

Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets:
We got some immediate feedback on Monday’s sweeping update, which included more industry interest in Mauricio. The average major league swinging strike rate is 11%. Mauricio has a 12% swinging strike rate, and is a switch-hitting, 6-foot-4 teenager facing full-season pitching. It’s common for lanky teenagers to struggle with contact as they grow into their frames, but Mauricio hasn’t had that issue so far.

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates:
One of us was sent Cruz’s minor league exit velocities and they’re shockingly close to what Yordan Alvarez’s have been in the big leagues. Of course, there remains great uncertainty about where Cruz will end up on defense, and hitters this size (Cruz is listed at 6-foot-7) are swing and miss risks, but this is a freakish, elite power-hitting talent.

Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants:
This guy has No. 1 overall prospect potential as a shortstop with 70 or better raw power. He belongs up near Bobby Witt, who is older but might also be a plus shortstop while we’re still not sure if Luciano will stay there.

George Valera, OF, Cleveland Indians:
Valera is torching the Penn League at 18 and a half years old, and we’re not sure any high school hitter in this year’s draft class would be able to do it. His defensive instincts give him a shot to stay in center field despite middling raw speed, and his swing should allow him to get to all of his raw power, so it becomes less important that his body is projectable. He would have been fifth on our 2019 draft board were he playing at a high school somewhere in the U.S., so he’s now slotted in the between JJ Bleday and C.J. Abrams on our overall list. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2018, Nick Pivetta struck out 27.1% of the 694 batters he faced. That’s not as impressive a figure as it would have been 10 years ago, but it was still the 14th-best such figure in the game last year, and caused me to write a piece last November called “You May Wish to Consider Nick Pivetta” in which I implored you, the FanGraphs reader, to consider Nick Pivetta. It’s been eight months since that piece was published, and Pivetta has faced 295 more batters. It’s time to re-consider Nick Pivetta, and see whether his performance has rewarded your close scrutiny.

The reason I’m writing about this now is not because the answer to that question is yes — it is, in fact, emphatically no, in the sense that Pivetta’s performance this season has mostly been bad and has occasionally been awful — but because Pivetta strikes me as representative of a type. In particular, Pivetta strikes me as representative of a player who shows us just enough to dream on, just enough to see signs of a breakout, that we read into those signs and give them more credit than they perhaps deserve. Nick Pivetta strikes me as representative of our optimism as observers.

So let’s talk about Pivetta — what made us dream, and what’s happened to that dream as this 2019 season has worn on. (All stats are through July 13.) Pivetta’s stand-out pitch is his curveball, a massive breaker that spins (2872 rpm, fifth in the majors this year), dips (7.2 inches of horizontal movement, 14th), and dives (-9.7 inches of vertical movement, ninth) with the very best of its kind. That’s the pitch that Pivetta learned to use differently against righties and lefties in 2018, much to his credit, taking an offering that had been predictably in the bottom left corner of the zone regardless of count or opponent and putting it in on right-handers’ hands (even when behind in the count), and down and in to lefties. Here’s what that looked like:

Read the rest of this entry »