In general, the Pirates’ first series of the year could’ve gone better. What everyone’s going to remember from this past weekend is the worst start of Paul Skenes’ career — probably of his entire life. But it could’ve been worse. Winning one of three at Citi Field against the Mets is probably going to end up looking like even par for one of the tougher assignments in the National League, especially with one of those losses coming in extra innings.

Brandon Lowe hit three home runs. Even Skenes’ awful opening inning was only made possible by some horrendous defense and ridiculous batted-ball luck. And Carmen Mlodzinski struck out the side against the top of the Mets’ order on Sunday. Twice. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — It started out so well.

In their Opening Day game against the Mets at Citi Field, the Pirates jumped out to a two-run lead two batters into the game. Their next three batters struck out, but they had National League Cy Young winner Paul Skenes starting for them. It was the first time in his career that Skenes, who entered the game with a 1.96 ERA, took the mound in the first inning with a lead of two or more runs. Heck, it was just the fourth time in his 56 career starts (29 on the road) that he’d thrown his first pitch with any lead at all. Maybe this year would be different after all.

It’s too early to say anything about this year, but this sure was a different game. Just not in the way the Pirates had hoped. For the first time in his career, Skenes did not make it through the first inning. When manager Don Kelly went to the bullpen with two outs in the inning, his ace had thrown 37 pitches, recorded just two outs and allowed five runs. He struck out just one batter, walked two, and hit one with a pitch. The impromptu bullpen game ended about two and a half hours later in an 11-7 Mets win. Read the rest of this entry »

Dean Kremer has been a staple of the Orioles rotation in recent years. Even while missing significant time due to injuries in a couple of seasons, he’s made more starts than any other Baltimore pitcher since the beginning of 2022, a span that encompasses both the division-winning Orioles from ’23 and last year’s basement dwellers. Yet this past weekend, Kremer was optioned to the team’s minor league camp, the odd man out in a rotation battle. He’s not the only familiar name among those slated to start the season in the minors due to such decisions.

Opening Day is full of fanfare and so often freighted with meaning, but it’s still just one day on the baseball calendar; the decisions regarding who gets to be there (and who doesn’t) don’t actually define the season. Still, unless they’re recalled to replace injured players — which is hardly out of the question — optioned position players need to remain in the minors for 10 days and pitchers for 15 days, counting from March 25 (Opening Day for the Giants and Yankees). In other words, they’ll be eligible to return on April 4 or April 9. Beyond that, circumstances change as the season progresses, and rosters are in a constant state of flux.

Kremer stands out because he’s fully established himself in the majors, while the other high-profile decisions I’ve highlighted below involve players who are or were recently considered top prospects. They’re all headed to Triple-A, and I expect them to stay past the aforementioned dates, but they’re notable because they’re still expected to play substantial roles in 2026. The players are listed alphabetically. Read the rest of this entry »

Starting rotations have five slots.

Yes, every once in a while a team will pretend to have four or six slots, but that team must inevitably confront the truth: Starting rotations have five slots. It’s a matter of policy, preference, and just plain practicality, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said last year in an interview with Lookout Landing.

“The unfortunate thing about the roster rules is you only get 26 spots, and you only get 13 pitchers. And when you add a sixth starter, you take away a reliever. When you add a sixth starter, sometimes your starters pitch every six days, sometimes they pitch every eight or nine days. Starting pitchers are fussy. They don’t like that. They like to stay on a regular schedule. They like to know when they’re pitching.”

I’ve been thinking about the fixed-nature of rotations lately after reading this discussion between Eno Saris and Jen McCaffrey in The Athletic. They compare the rotations in Detroit and Boston by assigning each pitcher a label (one, two, three, four, five), sizing them up horizontally and vertically, and confronting the trade-offs in quality and depth. This reflects how many of us compare rotations in the abstract, and I wanted to see if this could be applied more broadly. Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s something even more satisfying than spending your hard-earned money, it’s spending someone else’s money that you didn’t earn. When we’re talking baseball, unless you’re an extremely high-net-worth individual who can casually spend hundreds of millions of dollars — if this describes you, call me and we can totally hang out or something — you only have the option to spend other people’s cash. I mean, I haven’t technically asked American Express to up my credit limit to $300 million, but I’m guessing the answer would be no. Every year around this time, I make a whole piece out of it, naming seven players I think teams should attempt to sign to long-term contracts now, rather than waiting until later. There are some additional complications, of course, with a lockout likely coming after this season, but teams and players could be willing to act with more urgency to sign contracts now before all the uncertainty ahead of them.

I’ve (hopefully) chosen seven players whose possible extensions would benefit both the player and the team, as all good contracts ought to do. I’ve included the up-to-date ZiPS projections for each player, as well as the contract that ZiPS thinks each player should get, though that doesn’t necessarily mean I think the player will end up with that figure or even sign an extension. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy last day of February, everyone. By this time next week, the World Baseball Classic will have begun, allowing us to experience the best of what our global game has to offer. Earlier this month, Kiri Oler previewed the WBC with four team-by-team breakdown pieces, one for each pool, and we’ll have more coverage next week leading into the tournament. Also, I’ll be in Miami covering Pool D, which features Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Israel, and Nicaragua, so if you have any questions related to the first-round action at loanDepot park, you know how to reach me.

Of course, the World Baseball Classic isn’t the only baseball we have to look forward to in March. We are less than four weeks away from Opening Day! This year marks the earliest traditional Opening Day in MLB history, with 14 games scheduled for Thursday, March 26. The night before, the Giants will host the Yankees for the first game of the season. That standalone primetime matchup will air on Netflix of all places, because we all needed another streaming service subscription.

Anyway, in this week’s mailbag, we’ll be answering your questions about the NL Central, the value of a foul ball, a hypothetical Hall of Fame election in which every player regained eligibility for one year, and the most and least valuable baseball last names. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

In the 121-year history of the modern World Series, just once has a player hit a walk-off home run in the seventh and deciding game. In the finale of the 1960 World Series, Bill Mazeroski, the light-hitting second baseman for the Pirates, connected for a solo homer off the Yankees’ Ralph Terry, driving the ball over the brick left field wall of Pittsburgh’s Forbes Field to deliver a shocking upset and produce one of the most indelible moments in baseball history. While it wasn’t entirely out of character — Mazeroski had already homered once in that World Series and would hit 138 regular season home runs for his career — the 24-year-old second baseman rode the notoriety of that conclusive blast right into Cooperstown. A well-decorated fielding whiz who never managed a league-average season at the plate, he was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 2001, and a quarter-century later remains a controversial choice.

Mazeroski’s home run stands among the game’s most famous, up there with Babe Ruth’s “Called Shot” in the 1932 World Series, Bobby Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” to win the 1951 pennant for the New York Giants and Joe Carter’s 1993 World Series-ending two-run homer, which unlike Mazeroski’s — which broke a 9-9 tie — turned a potential defeat into victory, albeit in Game 6, not Game 7. One might swap out another homer for Ruth’s, such as Ted Williams’ career-capping blast from 1960, Henry Aaron’s record-breaking 715th from 1974, or signature October blasts by Bucky Dent, Carlton Fisk, or Kirk Gibson, but if there’s a Mount Rushmore of homers, Mazeroski’s claim on a spot is rock-solid.

“Every day of my life I think of that home run. Wouldn’t you if you had hit it?” Mazeroski later said with typical humility. “People always are reminding me of it. I suppose it must be the most important thing I’ve ever done.”

Mazeroski died on Friday in Lansdale, Pennsylvania at the age of 89, according to the Pirates. No cause of death was given. He is the second member of those 1960 champions to pass away this month, after reliever Elroy Face, who died on February 12.

In a 17-year career with the Pirates (1956–1972), Mazeroski won eight Gold Gloves and made 10 All-Star teams, counting the three seasons in the 1959–62 span during which he was selected for both games. Renowned for his impeccable footwork, sure hands, and lightning-quick pivot, he led NL second basemen in double plays in eight consecutive years (1960–67) and is the career leader in that category, with 1,706. Meanwhile, he’s fifth at the position in assists (6,685), seventh in putouts (4,974), and 11th in games (2,094). Based on Total Zone’s estimates, his 147 fielding runs ranks third among players who played at least 50% of their games at the position, behind only Bid McPhee (154 from 1882–99) and Joe Gordon (150 from 1938–50). Mazeroski did all of this while wearing an exceptionally small glove to prevent the ball from getting lost in the webbing, and while playing the vast majority of his home games on Forbes Field’s notoriously hard infield, which longtime Pirates broadcaster Bob Prince dubbed “alabaster plaster.”

“Everybody talked about his quick hands, but nobody talked about his leg work,” former Pirates general manager Joe L. Brown said of Mazeroski in 2001. “[Manager] Danny Murtaugh used to say his legs were so quick, so agile, he had the leg control of a ballet dancer.”

“He had marvelous range, great instincts and never threw to the wrong base,” Dick Groat, Mazeroski’s primary double play partner from 1956–62, told ESPN for its SportsCentury series. “If I would move Maz and tell him to play here or play there, I never had to tell him a second time. Ever.”

Gene Alley, the Pirates’ regular shortstop from 1964–72, explained Mazeroski’s quickness on the double play to ESPN:

“Maz never really caught the ball, never really closed his glove over it, turning the double play. He could tilt his glove at an angle and hold his hand just so. It was a wonder the ball stayed in there. Then it would slide out in his hand just like that. He was the only one I ever saw do it like that.”

By contrast, Mazeroski was not much of a hitter, though his 12 seasons of everyday play (1957–68) did help him amass 2,016 hits. For his career, he batted .260/.299/.367, making him the only Hall of Fame position player with an on-base percentage below .300. Among that group, his 84 OPS+ is ahead of only shortstops Luis Aparicio and Rabbit Maranville (both 82) and catcher Ray Schalk (83).

William Stanley Mazeroski was born on September 5, 1936 in Wheeling, West Virginia, about 60 miles southwest of Pittsburgh. The family — parents Louis and Mayme, sister Mary and Bill — lived on the other side of the Ohio River, in a one-room tumbledown house with no electricity or indoor plumbing in Little Rush Run, Ohio. Louis was a coal miner who had been a standout sandlot shortstop, getting a tryout with Cleveland before his foot was crushed in a mining accident at age 17.

Despite — or because of — the injury, Louis tried to live out his major league dreams by teaching his son baseball starting at a very young age, sharpening his reflexes and adjusting to bad hops by fielding tennis balls that caromed off a brick wall. Though the younger Mazeroski only grew to be 5-foot-11, he starred as a center for Warren Consolidated High School’s basketball team, earning Second Team All-Ohio honors as a senior and receiving scholarship offers from Ohio State, Duquesne, and West Virginia University. On the diamond he was a four-year letterman, starring as a shortstop and pitcher. Despite having only 60 students in his graduating class, the school’s team made it all the way to the finals of the state championship tournament in 1953. Mazeroski drew interest from scouts for Cleveland, the Phillies, Red Sox, and White Sox, as well as the Pirates. He chose Pittsburgh because it was the only team willing to start him above Class D, signing for a $4,000 bonus.

Mazeroski was still just 17 when he began his career at A-level Williamsport, where he hit a mere .235/.291/.333 with three home runs in 93 games in 1954. He was a full-time shortstop that season, but the following spring, general manager Branch Rickey decided that between his arm strength and impressive ability to make the pivot on the double play, Mazeroski was better suited to second. The Pirates started him at Hollywood of the Pacific Coast League in 1955 — then considered one level above Triple-A — but he struggled in 20 games there before returning to Williamsport, where, as an 18-year-old in a league where the average age was 24, he hit a much more impressive .293/.354/.438 with 11 homers in 114 games. He played well enough in a return to Hollywood in 1956 (.306/.358/.465, his only time with a .300 batting average at any level) that the Pirates called him up in early July. On July 7, 1956, 59 days before his 20th birthday, he debuted, collecting a single off the Giants’ Johnny Antonelli in his first plate appearance. He spent his first five weeks with his batting average generally below .200, but heated up in mid-August during a stretch that included his first home run, one of three hits he collected off the Phillies’ Robin Roberts, a future Hall of Famer, on August 16. He finished the season with a .243/.290/.318 (67 OPS+) line and three homers in 81 games.

The Pirates finished seventh in the NL with a 66-88 record in 1956, their first time escaping last place since ’51, and their first with Brown as their GM; even with Rickey in that role, they had lost 317 games from 1952–54, but by the time Mazeroski had arrived, the youth movement was showing returns. Rickey had signed Groat in June 1952, and had plucked 20-year-old Roberto Clemente from the Dodgers as a Rule 5 pick in November 1954, while Brown traded for center fielder Bill Virdon in mid-1955. Though the Pirates actually backslid to 62-92 in 1957, they went 26-25 after Murtaugh took over from the fired Bobby Bragan — a move that came as a relief to the young Mazeroski, who later told Sports Illustrated, “I suddenly felt as if an elephant had just climbed down off my shoulders.”

Aided by hitting coach George Sisler, Mazeroski learned to use the whole field better instead of trying to pull every ball. He improved to a respectable .283/.318/.407 (96 OPS+) with eight home runs and 3.6 WAR in 1957, his first full season. The Pirates rocketed to 84-70 and a second-place finish in 1958, with the 21-year-old Mazeroski having what would stand as his best season on both sides of the ball. He hit .275/.308/.439 (97 OPS+) with 19 homers, was elected to start his first All-Star Game, won his first Gold Glove, and ranked seventh in the NL with 4.7 WAR. While he would match both that mark and its underlying 23 fielding runs in 1963, he would never surpass those numbers.

After marrying Milene Nicholson, the secretary of the Pirates’ head of scouting, in October 1958, Mazeroski failed to keep in shape during that offseason, reporting to spring training 15 pounds overweight. He lost range, and a pulled muscle in his leg didn’t help; while he was selected for both All-Star games, he slipped to a 67 OPS+ and 0.2 WAR. With Sisler counseling him to move deeper in the batter’s box and wait on curveballs until they broke, he rebounded to .273/.320/.392 (94 OPS+) with 11 home runs and 2.5 WAR in 1960, again starting both All-Star Games and claiming his second Gold Glove. Led by Groat and third baseman Don Hoak — who finished second to Groat in the NL MVP voting — as well as Clemente and Cy Young winner Vern Law, the Pirates won 95 games and took home their first pennant since 1927.

Though the World Series against the Yankees went down to the final pitch, New York’s three wins were all by at least 10 runs — 16-3 in Game 2, 10-0 in Game 3, and 12-0 in Game 6 — while the Pirates’ were all by three runs or fewer. In the aggregate, the Pirates were outscored 55-27 and outhit 91-60, though they benefited from Yankees manager Casey Stengel’s curious decision not to start Whitey Ford in Game 1, thus keeping him lined up for starts in Games 4 and 7. Ford instead started only Games 3 and 6, a decision that contributed to the 70-year-old Stengel’s losing his job shortly after the series despite having led the Yankees to 10 pennants and seven championships in 12 years.

Mazeroski went 2-for-4 in Game 1, with a two-run homer off Jim Coates in the fourth inning of a 6-4 win. He collected hits in each of the next four games as well, including a two-run double to chase starter Art Ditmar in the second inning of Game 5.

In Game 7, the Pirates took an early 4-0 lead, with Mazeroski contributing a bunt single to load the bases in the second inning before coming around to score. Aided by home runs by Bill Skowron and Yogi Berra, the Yankees rebounded, and by the eighth inning they led 7-4. The Pirates answered back by scoring five runs in the eighth — all without Mazeroski batting — with Hal Smith’s two-out, three-run homer off Coates giving them a 9-7 lead. The Yankees tied the game in the top of the ninth against reliever Harvey Haddix, but as Roger Angell later recalled, Mazeroski made a key defensive play with two outs and Mickey Mantle on first:

… a great play that will forever go insufficiently sung, because of what happened afterward and because it was a simple force at second. Indeed with the fleet Mantle barreling toward second on the pitch, [Pirates shortstop] Dick Groat’s best play on Skowron’s grounder into the hole was to first. Groat, however, after bobbling the ball slightly, looked to Mazeroski and rushed his throw, which went wide, surely wider than the compactly put-together Maz could stretch. But Maz, for whom second base is T.S. Eliot’s “still point of the turning world,” seemed to lay every fibre of his being end to end for an instant to snag Groat’s throw and nip the sliding Mantle by a heartbeat. And then he jogged in toward the bottom of the ninth and immortality.

That set up Mazeroski’s leadoff at-bat against Terry, who had relieved Coates following Smith’s homer and retired Hoak on a fly ball to end the eighth. Terry, who had warmed up five times since the first inning, fell behind 1-0 as Mazeroski passed on a shoulder-high fastball off the plate. His next pitch — a slider that didn’t slide — was over the plate, and Mazeroski clouted it over the left field wall, with Berra (in left field) and Mantle (in center) giving half-hearted chase but having no chance. Pandemonium ensued as fans stormed the field while Mazeroski rounded the bases, batting helmet in hand.

Remarkably, Mazeroski — who hit .320/.320/.640 with five RBI — was not named the World Series MVP. Instead, the honor went to Yankees second baseman Bobby Richardson, who drove in 12 runs, a record now shared with Freddie Freeman of the 2024 Dodgers. The MVP vote had been taken in the eighth inning of Game 7, and it remains the only time since the award’s inception (in 1955) that it went to a member of the losing team. Mazeroski did win that year’s Babe Ruth Award, given by the New York BBWAA chapter to the most outstanding player in the postseason.

For as climactic as it was, Mazeroski’s homer ranks only eighth in terms of championship win probability added (cWPA). As MLB.com’s Mike Petriello explained last fall in the wake of the Dodgers’ thrilling Game 7 win over the Blue Jays, Hal Smith’s homer in the previous inning turned a one-run deficit into a two-run lead, increasing the Pirates’ championship odds by 63.6%. Mazeroski’s homer “only” improved their chances by 36.7% — which is to say that with no outs and the score tied in a walk-off situation, the odds of the Pirates winning at the point of his homer were already higher.

Just 24 years old at the time of his signature blast, Mazeroski still had plenty of baseball ahead of him. He spent the next eight seasons as the Pirates’ starting second baseman, hitting a combined .262/.298/.368 (87 OPS+) while averaging 152 games, 10 home runs, 13 fielding runs, and 3.1 WAR per year. He won five straight Gold Gloves in that span (1963–67), perennially leading NL second basemen in most key defensive categories, and started All-Star Games in 1962 (twice) and ’67, while making the teams as a reserve two other times. After Groat was traded to the Cardinals in November 1962, the Pirates appointed Mazeroski team captain.

The Pirates’ competitive fortunes ebbed and flowed across the eight seasons following their World Series title. They won 93 games in 1962, 90 in ’65, and 92 in ’66, but they also finished below .500 four times in those eight seasons, and right at .500 once. They placed third in a 10-team league in both 1965 and ’66, three games behind the Dodgers in the latter season, but in the years before division play and wild cards, that wasn’t enough. Murtaugh stepped down after 1964 due to health concerns, though he returned to the dugout for the second half of 1967, when he guided the team to a 39–39 record after Harry Walker was fired.

Mazeroski had proven ultra-durable during that span. From 1964–67, he reached the 162-game mark three times, with a high of 163 (including a tie game) in ’67. He missed the first 21 games of the 1965 season after fracturing a metatarsal in his right foot, and played in just 130 games that year. In 1969, a recurrent hamstring injury limited him to just 67 games, including just six after June 29. With Murtaugh back at the helm in 1970, Mazeroski played 112 games, but his 65 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR both suggested the Pirates could do better, and as the season went on, he increasingly yielded to 22-year-old rookie Dave Cash. On June 28, 1970, Mazeroski did have the distinction of recording the final out of Forbes Field’s 62-year history on a forceout at second off the bat of the Cubs’ Don Kessinger; this, after he had collected the Pirates’ final hit at the ballpark, an eighth-inning double. Another double, on August 17 off the Astros’ Wade Blasingame, marked Mazeroski’s 2,000th career hit.

The Pirates went 89-73 in 1970, winning the NL East, but they were swept by the Reds in the best-of-five National League Championship Series, with Mazeroski going hitless in his only start in Game 3. Reduced to a reserve role, he slipped below replacement level in 1971 and ’72, but nonetheless served as a valued mentor to the team’s younger players, including Cash and fellow second baseman Rennie Stennett. The Pirates repeated as NL East champions in both seasons; in those postseasons, Mazeroski was limited to pinch-hit duty. His pinch-single in the second inning of Game 4 of the 1971 NLCS off the Giants’ Gaylord Perry led to a game-tying three-run homer by Richie Hebner. The Pirates clinched the series that afternoon, and went on to beat the Orioles in the World Series.

Mazeroski retired after the 1972 season, moving directly into a role as the team’s third base coach under Virdon, who despite winning the division title as a rookie manager didn’t make it through the following season; Murtaugh came out of retirement in September. Mazeroski didn’t return to coach in 1974, but did coach third for the Mariners in ’78 and ’79. He often served as a spring instructor for the Pirates, making an impression upon yet another generation of players. In 2010, he tutored Neil Walker as he made the conversion from third base to second. “He was in either his late 60s or early 70s at that time, and he was still pretty impressive,” Walker recalled in the wake of Mazeroski’s death. “The hands were still there, the glove was still there, the footwork was still there. The eyes were probably going a little bit, but it was just incredible.”

The Pirates honored Mazeroski by retiring his no. 9 in 1987. After his election to the Hall of Fame in 2001, the team named a street outside PNC Park Mazeroski Way in his honor. On his birthday in 2010, a bronze statue commemorating his jubilant trip around the bases following his Series-winning homer was unveiled along the Allegheny River outside PNC Park. Forbes Field was razed in 1972, but a plaque commemorating Mazeroski’s home run still stands on the site, along with a portion of the brick outfield wall. Since October 13, 1985, on the 25th anniversary of the home run, fans gather at the spot every year to rewatch the game, timing it so that Mazeroski’s home run happens at 3:36 p.m., as it originally did. For the 50th anniversary in 2010, Mazeroski and over 1,000 fans showed up to celebrate.

Mazeroski became eligible for election to the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA’s 1978 ballot. He scraped by with just 6.1% of the vote, didn’t reach double digits until 1983, and after five years spent in the 30% range, topped out at 42.3% in ’92, his final year of eligibility. Starting in 1996, his case was taken up by the Veterans Committee on an annual basis. With Brown serving as the committee’s chairman — and alas keeping alive the VC’s long history of cronyism — Mazeroski didn’t lack for support. After falling one vote short of election in 2000, he was elected the next year. Ted Williams, who had served on the committee since 1986 and had been frank about his unwillingness to support Mazeroski due to his weak offense, missed the 2001 vote while recovering from open-heart surgery. Instead of needing 12 out 15 votes to clear 75%, Mazeroski only needed 11 out of 14, and he squeaked through.

It would be an understatement to suggest that the election sparked controversy. “The Hall of Fame Veterans Committee was created to rectify mistakes. Which means its next act should be self-abolishment,” wrote the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Implicitly, the Hall agreed, overhauling the committee format so that all living Hall of Famers, all Spink and Frick Award winners (writers and broadcasters), and all VC panelists whose terms had not expired (a group that did not include Brown) would have a vote on a biennial basis, starting in 2003.

“You dream of a lot of things,” Mazeroski said of his election, steering clear of the controversy. “You want to be in the big leagues. You want to make the All-Star Game. You want to be in a World Series. You want to do all those things. But you never dream of this. It’s pretty exciting. I just hope I can live up to it.”

Though he began his induction speech by noting he’d written 12 pages, Mazeroski ended up delivering one of the shortest speeches in Hall history. “I think defense belongs in the Hall of Fame. Defense deserves as much credit as pitching and hitting, and I’m proud and honored to be going into the Hall of Fame on the defensive side and mostly for my defensive abilities,” he said. Overcome by emotion, he continued for just a couple more minutes. “I thought when the Pirates retired my number that would be the greatest thing ever to happen to me… I think you can kiss those 12 pages down the drain… I want to thank all the friends and family who made this long trip up here to listen to me speak and hear this crap.”

Does Mazeroski belong in Cooperstown? By the advanced statistics, his case is flimsy. Even with his strong standing in fielding runs, his 36.5 career WAR and 31.2 JAWS both rank just 52nd, lower than any non-Negro Leagues Hall of Famer at the position, in the general vicinity of other glove wizards such as Placido Polanco, Mark Ellis, and Frank White, not to mention a less accomplished defender who hit a game-winning homer in a World Series Game 7, Howie Kendrick.

Such is the power of one fateful swing of the bat. Defense alone is rarely enough to get a player to Cooperstown, but defense and one of the most famous and enduring home runs in baseball history? That’s another story.

Two weeks ago, Sunday Notes led with David Cone following in Mark Gubicza’s footsteps. Just as his fellow pitcher-turned-broadcaster had done, Cone tackled a challenging career quiz, augmenting his answers — some of them correct, others amiss — with entertaining anecdotes about batters he faced along the way. Today we’ll hear from another 1980s-1990s hurler who is now a broadcast analyst: Jeff Montgomery, who played with Gubicza in Kansas City, is the Royals’ franchise leader in both appearances (686) and saves 304).

I began by asking the 64-year-old Wellston, Ohio native which batter he faced the most times.

“I’m going to say either Chili Davis or Kirby Puckett,” guessed Montgomery, naming a pair of players who narrowly missed being the correct answer. Upon being informed that it was neither of the two, the erstwhile closer pondered for several seconds, only to throw up his hands. “You got me,” he admitted. “Who was it?”

I told Montgomery that it was Paul Molitor, whom he faced 30 times, allowing just seven hits, all of them singles.

“Oh, Molly. There you go,” responded Montgomery, “Molly was the type of hitter who was never going to be easy. He had the ability to really wait on pitches. He was basically bat-to-ball, and his bat-to-ball skills were incredible. There were honestly times when I thought the pitch was in the catcher’s mitt, and the next thing I knew I was watching our right fielder chasing the ball down the line. Molly’s bat was that fast.

“I think I did pretty well against him,“ Montgomery added. “But I do remember one game in the Metrodome. We were in extra innings, it was a bases-loaded situation, and I had him 0-2. I’d thrown Molly a couple of sliders away, and decided to come in with a fastball. He leaned into it for a walk-off hit-by-pitch.” Read the rest of this entry »

As you read this, baseball players across the world are flocking to Florida and Arizona. Pitchers and catchers have started reporting. Another annual rite: The last hitter among our Top 50 free agents just signed. Marcell Ozuna and the Pirates are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $12 million, as Jeff Passan first reported. The 35-year-old DH is the latest in a string of mid-market acquisitions, both in free agency and trade, as Pittsburgh improves its lineup in support of Paul Skenes and a dynamic pitching staff.

Allow me to say the obvious thing first: Even with their other moves, the Pirates needed another bat, and it’s great they got one. We project Ozuna as the best hitter on the entire roster. That’s not the kind of acquisition you generally make with a one-year deal in February. The Pirates might be starting from a low base, but that doesn’t make it any less important that they improve. They only have Skenes under team control for so long! This deal makes them better by more than anything else they could have done this week. There are no better free agents remaining, no likely trade targets with greater potential impact. But that’s not an entire article, so let’s consider this deal more deeply.

Ozuna is coming off of a down 2025 where he played through a serious hip injury. It was the latest dip in a career of highs and lows, both on and off the field. In 2024, he finished fourth in NL MVP voting after a majestic offensive season, posting a .302/.378/.546 line and a 154 wRC+. That was his second straight season of offensive success, and for Ozuna, a strong rebound from two years in the doldrums. In 2021, he missed most of the season with a broken hand. That season ended with a 20-game suspension under the league’s joint domestic violence policy, and Ozuna then struggled through a below-replacement 2022 that also saw him arrested for a DUI; he later pled no contest and paid a fine. The Braves looked for alternatives – and then of course, two years later, he nearly won MVP. Read the rest of this entry »

For pitchers, it’s really not optimal to show up late to spring training. Roll up to Arizona or Florida sometime in early March, and then you’re behind all your friends, still ramping up when it’s supposed to be go time. Maybe you find your form sometime in May. Maybe your season never gets off the ground. Such a fate is to be avoided, if at all possible.

And so with pitchers and catchers reporting Tuesday, Monday was, in effect, the final day to sign to ensure a regular build-up. Appropriately, there was a predictable run on the straggling starting pitchers of the free agent market. Nick Martinez went to the Rays; Erick Fedde returned to the White Sox; Chris Paddack found a life raft with the Marlins. Also, even though José Urquidy signed with the Pirates last Thursday, we’re bringing him to the party, too. Let’s talk about each of these signings in that order.

Nick Martinez Signs With Rays (One Year, $13 Million)

Martinez is the biggest name of the bunch, and he accordingly received the largest deal — $13 million for a year’s work — as reported by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Of the remaining pitchers available, his 2.1 ZiPS projected WAR was third best.

It’s unclear if he’ll assume his typical swingman role in Tampa Bay. The RosterResource crew sees him slotting into the back of the rotation, a place he thrived in the second half of 2024 with the Reds. Despite averaging just 92.6 mph on his four-seam fastball that season, Martinez leveraged a wide mix and impeccable command to deliver a 3.21 FIP over 142 1/3 innings, good for 3.4 WAR. On the strength of that campaign, he received (and accepted) the qualifying offer, bequeathing him a hefty $21.05 million for 2025.

Last offseason, I speculated that Martinez was a good candidate to repeat his surprising success due in large part to his ability to blend his pitches together. These arsenal effects, I thought, would lead to sustainable soft-contact generation, allowing for continued success in spite of a so-so strikeout rate.

In some sense, I was half-right: New arsenal metrics from Baseball Prospectus, introduced months after the publication of that article, reinforced my thesis. Martinez’s 2025 Pitch Type Probability (a measure of unpredictability) ranked in the 94th percentile among pitchers with at least 1000 pitches thrown; his Movement Spread and Velocity Spread also clocked in well above average. True to form, he limited damage on contact, holding hitters to a 34.5% hard-hit rate (90th percentile) and a .275 BABIP.

And yet Martinez’s 2025 season was a bust; his ERA jumped from 3.10 to 4.45, with the poor peripherals to back it up. After running a 3.2% walk rate in 2024, some control regression was expected. But his bat-missing went from acceptable to dire, his strikeout rate dropping nearly four percentage points. The main culprit was the changeup, which generated a huge amount of chase in 2024 and fell all the way back to Earth in 2025. The shape did not change significantly, but his command of the pitch slipped considerably. Check out how much more plate his changeup caught against left-handed hitters this season (left) versus last (right):

The changeup unlocks the entire Martinez experience, and its performance will determine whether the Rays will be getting a durable but unexciting innings-eater or a guy you might trust to start Game 3 of a Divisional Series. Either way, he improves the Tampa Bay staff for 2026, giving the team insurance against the wild whims of Joe Boyle. And in the case of a Boyle breakout, Martinez can easily shift back into his familiar swingman role.

Erick Fedde Signs With White Sox (Contract TBA)

It was mad ugly for Fedde in 2025. He started the year in St. Louis, pitching a little over 100 innings of exactly replacement-level ball; at the trade deadline, the Braves picked him up for a handful of gumballs, hoping he’d hoover up some innings in a lost season. Three weeks later, they straight up released him; the Brewers brought him in for a few mopup opportunities before hitting him with a DFA on the final day of the regular season.

That’s not what you want. Fedde’s east-west attack fell apart in 2025; excluding Rockies hurlers, his 13.3% strikeout rate was worst in baseball (minimum 100 innings pitched.) Perhaps fatally, his walk rate ballooned as he opted to pitch around hitters instead of challenging them in the zone.

But what better place to resurrect his career? Those handful of months on the South Side in 2024 were the best he’s pitched since his triumphant return from the KBO. In 21 pre-trade deadline starts that year, Fedde bullied righties with his sinker-sweeper combo, and jammed enough lefties with his cutter to viably work his way through lineups. A 3.11 ERA earned him a deadline promotion to a contender, and he proceeded to pitch roughly as well as a Cardinal, though the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

Fedde was still pretty good against righties in 2025, but lefties smoked him to the tune of a .389 wOBA. His cutter lost a crucial couple inches of glove-side bite, and so the pitch tended to finish middle-up instead of on the inner edge. A perfectly straight 90-mph cutter is fodder for tanks; with no four-seam option on the table, Fedde was faced with the difficult choice of getting aggressive with subpar stuff or aiming at too-fine targets.

If getting back with pitching coach Brian Bannister can help Fedde gain back those two inches of break on the cutter, the White Sox can expect him to deliver on his presumably modest deal.

Chris Paddack Signs With Marlins (One year, $4 million)

Paddack’s plan of attack is pretty straightforward, venturing not much further than a carry fastball and a butterfly changeup. When you throw a carry fastball nearly half the time at mediocre velocity, you’re going to give up a lot of home runs. So it’s been for Paddack his entire career, and never more so than in 2025, when he gave up a career-high 31 chucks across his 158 2/3 innings of work.

With Martinez and Fedde at least, you can squint at them and see an unlikely path to a 3-WAR season. Paddack, however, presents no such upside. He is what he is: a guy with reliably excellent command and not enough stuff to miss bats or stay off barrels. This blurb is already pretty negative, but still, I must admit that I am surprised that he received a guaranteed big league deal. (And for $4 million, no less.)

I’m not even really sure I understand this signing for the Marlins. RosterResource projects this signing to kick Janson Junk into a long relief role. Junk is, to my eye, a better version of Paddack, featuring similarly excellent command and a carry fastball from a high arm angle. But Junk can throw a pretty good breaking ball; Paddack’s extreme pronation bias prevents him from spinning the ball with any effectiveness. Unless the Marlins are planning to imminently ship out Sandy Alcantara, I don’t see what Paddack brings to their club at present. Perhaps he could work as an unconventional relief arm, throwing only fastballs and changeups.

José Urquidy Signs With Pirates (One Year, $1.5 million)

Remember him? Urquidy’s last full season of work was all the way back in 2022, when he racked up 164 1/3 innings for a World Series-winning Astros club. In the three years hence, he’s battled shoulder problems and then, finally, a torn elbow ligament, causing him to miss the entire 2024 season and nearly all of 2025.

Crucially for the purposes of providing analysis in this blurb, Urquidy did briefly resurface in Detroit for 2 1/3 innings of work in September, allowing us to compare his stuff to where it was before the injury. Surprisingly, it was mostly the same. Both before and after, Urquidy possessed a four-seam fastball with crazy carry (nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break), a changeup with respectable vertical separation, and a slow two-plane curveball, and his fastball velocity was nearly identical, 93.1 mph in 2023 and 93.0 mph in 2025. But there was one pivotal difference: Urquidy’s sweeper, which was completely incongruous with the rest of his arsenal and racked up a bunch of whiffs in 2023, did not resurface in his brief big league stint last year.

Like Paddack, the arsenal characteristics (93-mph carry fastball) will ensure a bushel of tanks. Can Urquidy limit damage around the homers enough to hold the fort down until the return of Jared Jones? I think it might come down to the state of that sweeper. Otherwise, I’m not sure he has an out pitch against same-handed hitters. As far as backend bets go, there are worse ideas than giving $1.5 million to a guy who reliably beat his FIP for years prior to the injury. The Pirates aren’t asking for much, and Urquidy seems reasonably likely to meet those low expectations.