Mike Shawaryn hadn’t put much thought into it. Finger pressure is instrumental in his success, both as a pitcher and as a musician, but how the two intertwine isn’t a subject he’d addressed. Not until I broached the subject this winter.

A 22-year-old right-hander out of the University of Maryland, Shawaryn is one of the top prospects in the Red Sox system (Baseball America has him No. 8; Eric Longenagen expects to rank him similarly when he puts together his forthcoming Red Sox list). Displaying a power arsenal, he fanned 169 batters in 134-and-two-thirds innings last year between low-A Greenville and high-A Salem.

When he’s not blowing away hitters, Shawaryn is playing the piano and the saxophone — and he’s a neophyte with neither. Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2016 draft has been tickling the ivories and blowing on a sax ever since his elementary school days in South Jersey.

Both instruments require dexterous fingers. Ditto pitching, where you’re gripping and releasing an object whose movement is influenced by the placement of digits on seams. Is there a direct correlation?

“I’ve never really thought about it like that, but the feel of the ball in your hand is obviously important,” Shawaryn said after first contemplating the idea. “Now, kind of connecting the dots, I’d say it’s the piano more so than the saxophone. The pressure you put on the keys determines the sound of it, the shape of the music. That’s probably helped me develop a type of feel in my fingers for the seams on the ball — what fingers I need to put pressure on to influence the shape of a pitch.”

And then there are rhythm and tempo. Pitchers change speeds within an at bat, and musicians change speeds within a song. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball R&D Analyst

Location: Boston, MA

Description:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Research & Development department. The role will support all areas of Baseball Operations while working closely with the VP, Baseball Research & Development, and the analysts on the R&D team.

This is an opportunity to work in a fast-paced, intellectually curious environment and to impact player personnel and strategic decision making.

Responsibilities:

• Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization to disseminate insights to members of the Baseball Operations leadership.
• Maintain working expertise of leading-edge analytics, including publicly available research and novel statistical approaches, in order to recommend new or emerging techniques, technologies, models, and algorithms.
• Other projects and related duties as directed by VP, Baseball Research & Development, and other members of Baseball Operations leadership.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, or operations research.
• Demonstrated experience with baseball data analysis.
• Advanced understanding of statistical methods or machine learning techniques.
• Proficiency with modern database technologies including SQL.
• Demonstrated experience with programming languages (e.g., R or Python).
• Demonstrated ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
• Demonstrated work ethic, passion for baseball, and strong baseball knowledge, including familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
• Attention to detail while also having the ability to work quickly and balance multiple priorities.
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
• Other programming and database skills are a plus.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “Analyst”. Please include the following items/answer:

• Updated resume.
• Example of analysis you’ve done, preferably related to baseball.
• What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Perhaps more strongly than any club examined to date in this series, the 2018 iteration of the Boston Red Sox resembles its immediate predecessor. For the most part, that’s to the club’s benefit. Last year’s team was projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 19 WAR. This year’s team is also projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 18 WAR. Considering that an average collection of hitters produces 18 wins total in a given season, one is forced to conclude that Boston’s core is strong.

The addition of third baseman Rafael Devers (611 PA, 2.6 zWAR) is quite helpful in this regard. Third base has represented a bit of a black hole in recent years for Boston. Will Middlebrooks (2013-14), Pablo Sandoval (2015, -17), and Travis Shaw (2016) have been the Opening Day starters at third for the Red Sox over that last five years. None have crossed the two-win threshold during that span.

The roster’s weaknesses, meanwhile, remain at the weaker end of the defensive spectrum. Neither first baseman Mitch Moreland (503, 0.9) nor Hanley Ramirez (524, 1.1) profile as anything much better than a platoon type.

Read the rest of this entry »

I have an early, hazy memory of Benito Santiago explaining to a reporter the approach that had led to his game-winning hit moments earlier. “I see the ball, I hit it hard,” said Santiago in his deep accent. From which game, in what year, I can’t remember. Also, it isn’t really important: it’s a line we’ve heard before. Nevertheless, it contains multitudes.

We know, for example, that major-league hitters have to see well to hit well. Recent research at Duke University has once again made explicit the link between eye sight, motor control, and baseball outcomes. This time, though, they’ve split out some of the skills involved, and it turns out that Santiago’s deceptively simple description involves nuanced levels of neuromotor activity, each predictive of different aspects of a hitter’s abilities. Will our developing knowledge about those different skills help us better sort young athletes, or better develop them? That part’s to be determined.

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How do you respond when your fiercest rival picks up Giancarlo Stanton? Well, I don’t care how you respond. Here’s how the Red Sox have responded.

Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year deal.

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 18, 2017

Mitch Moreland, two years, $13 million. If he hits all his incentives, it’ll be $14 million instead. This isn’t something that would take the Red Sox out of the running for every free agent, but this does seem to take the Sox out of the running for Eric Hosmer. We’ll get to that.

I think there are two ways to look at this. If you want to be optimistic, you might note that Moreland injured a toe in the middle of June, and then that toe injury seems to have cascaded into a knee injury. Moreland’s 2017 splits are of some significance:

Before the injuries, Moreland was really quite good! The Red Sox might figure that Moreland is healthy again, so they might figure they’ll get more of that early-season edition moving forward. At 32, Moreland isn’t young, but he’s not so old you’d expect him to fall flat on his face. There’s still some power in there, he improved his walk rate, and he’s long been a good defender at first base. It’s possible to look at this and conclude the Red Sox have a potential bargain on their hands.

Yet Moreland is coming off a 0.9 WAR season. This is where you go if you want to be pessimistic. Moreland has been in the majors for eight seasons, and only once has he been worth at least one win above replacement. His career WAR is 5.1, over 3,338 plate appearances. That’s 0.9 WAR per 600. Based on the Steamer projections, on a per-600-PA basis, Moreland ranks as the 42nd-best first baseman. There are 30 major-league baseball teams. You can see the upside in how Moreland got started this past year, but he doesn’t have a very encouraging record. This would appear to be an investment in veteran mediocrity.

The Red Sox could still conceivably try to go after J.D. Martinez. They’d have to move an outfielder, or move on from Hanley Ramirez. Neither is too high a hurdle. But the Hosmer angle is also important, because it doesn’t seem like Hosmer has a very large market at all. Maybe I’m just misreading things, or maybe it’s a consequence of Scott Boras’ sky-high price tag. In theory, if it came down, more teams could get involved. But by far the hottest suitor has been San Diego, and the competition they face might be…limited…to…Kansas City. Boston had been included in there, as a big-budget team with a positional need, but now they’re out. At this point I’d be pretty surprised if Hosmer didn’t end up with the Padres. That’s a weird sentence.

Anyhow, Hosmer is for another day. This day is for the Red Sox re-signing Mitch Moreland. It’s not a move that doesn’t have upside. That’s about as much as I think I can sell it.

Manny Machado is on the trade block. And rightfully so, as the Orioles are not very close to the other contenders in the AL East, and are looking at losing Machado, Zach Britton, and Adam Jones to free agency next winter. There is simply too large a divide to justify holding those guys and hoping the team lucks into a Wild Card spot, so moving their best pieces while they have the most value is the rational decision.

That said, as I’ve ready some of the suggested offers various teams could make to bring Machado to their city, it seems there remains a disconnect between the understanding of Machado’s abilities and Machado’s trade value. It’s unquestioned that Machado is one of the best players in the world. He’s a star, and will be paid accordingly in free agency next year. But for anyone acquiring him, he’s a one-year rental, with some fringe benefit of being able to try to get him to give you a discount in free agency next winter. That’s worth something, but it isn’t worth the kinds of packages that people seem to expect.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox have been talking about adding power all winter. The Yankees just traded for Giancarlo Stanton. Dave Dombrowski is unlikely to just let that move go unchallenged, so the Red Sox are probably more likely than ever to outbid everyone for J.D. Martinez. And the wheels to make that happen might be starting to turn.

The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 11, 2017

When the Jose Abreu rumors kicked up a couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how swapping Bradley for a slugger might make the team different but not necessarily better. And while Martinez is better than Abreu, the same principle applies here.

Unless the Red Sox get a great return for Bradley, swapping him out for whatever you can get for him in order to sign Martinez would be more rearranging the deck chairs than a massive upgrade. And it would cost a lot of money, since Bradley will make about $6 million in arbitration, and Martinez will cost north of $25 million per year to sign as a free agent. Martinez is better than Bradley, but he’s not $19 million per year better than Bradley.

Now, maybe there’s a big market for Bradley’s services, and Dombrowski is going to pull off a great trade that brings back a low-cost quality young first baseman or starting pitcher. There are scenarios where trading Bradley could make sense. But it feels more likely that the Red Sox would be selling low for the primary purpose of creating a spot in the outfield so they can justify overpaying Martinez. And if that really is the plan, this probably isn’t something Red Sox fans should be rooting for.

If there’s been one fairly easy prognostication this winter, it’s that the Red Sox are going to sign one of the expensive free agent hitters available in this class. Dave Dombrowski has historically not been shy about spending big to upgrade his roster, and has also shown a propensity for building rosters around power. The Red Sox ranked 27th in home runs last year. This is probably not something he wants to repeat.

Read the rest of this entry »

“I know all teams have plenty of money.”

—Giancarlo Stanton

This season’s National League MVP, Giancarlo Stanton, recently addressed rumors that Miami might trade him, noting that the club could immediately become a postseason contender with the addition of pitching. His suggestion that all teams have plenty of money certainly appears to be a response to speculation that the Marlins intend to slash payroll a few months after having been purchased for more than a billion dollars.

It also stands to reason that he was commenting upon the fact any club could theoretically afford to acquire Stanton and the $295 million remaining on his contract. In one sense, he’s probably right. Revenues in baseball are at an all-time high. For a number of reasons, however, there’s not a direct correlation in baseball between revenues and spending.

One main reason is the competitive-balance tax, formerly known as the luxury tax. The cap for the tax has increased at only about half the rate of MLB payrolls. Accordingly, more teams find themselves up against a tax that was made more painful in the last CBA. Those taxes have pretty drastic effects on the trade market for Giancarlo Stanton, putting some teams out of the bidding and making the cost for others high enough that a competitive offer might be unreasonable.

Two years ago, Nathaniel Grow wrote an excellent piece about the implications of the luxury tax this century, showing how many teams used the tax as a cap, which has driven down spending relative to revenue over the last decade. In the last few years, the tax threshold has grown at a very slow rate, such that, by the end of the current CBA, teams with an average payroll will find themselves just a single major free-agent signing away from transcending it. The graph below depicts both average team payrolls and the tax threshold since 2003.

Over the last 15 years, payroll has grown at a pace 50% faster than that of the competitive-balance tax amount. However, the chart above actually overstates the rate at which the competitive-balance threshold has grown. From 2003 until the beginning of the previous CBA in 2011, the luxury tax grew at a rate pretty close to MLB payrolls, even if it did depress salaries compared to revenue. Beginning with the CBA that started in 2011 and the new CBA, which goes through 2021, the competitive-balance tax has seen barely any growth, especially when it comes to payroll.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s no player more polarizing this offseason than Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins’ new ownership group has indicated that they’d like to reduce the club’s payroll by as much as $50 million before the start of the 2018 campaign. With 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract, Stanton is the logical place to begin with any such cuts.

The prospect of a Stanton trade isn’t particularly straightforward, though. There appears to be little consensus on the relative value of his production to the costs required to employ him. Is he overpriced and injury prone — should he be treated as a salary dump? Or is he the rare available peak-aged star who should be coveted?

What follows is a series of points in support of the latter case.

He’s not necessarily injury prone.
Much has been made of Stanton’s inability to put up 600-plus plate appearances — probably too much. It’s true that he’s only crossed that threshold four times over eight years in the bigs (yes, we can count the 636 he put up over two levels in his rookie season), but that’s not as damning as it may seem. And that’s not just because one of those four injury-shortened seasons came from a broken jaw on a hit by pitch — that is, by means of a one-time event, not a chronic problem.

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