Shelley Duncan has a job befitting a longtime FanGraphs reader with deeps roots in the game. A big league outfielder/first baseman from 2007-13, the 42-year-old son of legendary pitching coach Dave Duncan is the Analytics Coordinator for the Chicago White Sox. Hired for the in-uniform position in November 2020, Duncan previously managed in the Arizona Diamondbacks system and served as both a field coordinator and a special assistant of baseball operations with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Duncan discussed his current role, and the way analytics are changing the way teams game plan, when the White Sox visited Fenway Park over the weekend.
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David Laurila: Your title is Analytics Coordinator. What does the role entail?
Shelley Duncan: “It’s a position that is starting to become more popular with some teams, to have somebody in the dugout that can help other staff members, and players, with information. You can translate information and be an intermediary between them and the analytics part of the front office. You’re not replacing any of the relationships, or any of the jobs, just being a source for everyone.
“There are so many areas of focus on a baseball field that involve information. Whether it’s players knowing stuff about themselves, about the opponent, decision-making during games, advance work… half of the advance work is digging into numbers and information, and then blending video. One guy can’t do all that — I can’t do all that — but what I can do is support everybody with my experience and knowledge, including the work I do with the analytics department.”
Brandon Marsh has an engaging personality and an innate ability to square up baseballs. He also has untapped potential. Rated as the top prospect in the Los Angeles Angels system prior to last season, the bearded, 24-year-old outfielder is building on a 2021 rookie campaign that saw him put up an 86 wRC+ over 70 games. Logging regular playing time in a dynamic L.A. lineup — this within an MLB-wide environment that is evoking memories of 1968’s “Year of the Pitcher” — Marsh is currently slashing .253/.318/.453 with four home runs and a 127 wRC+.
His offensive profile is more table-setter than bopper. Describing himself as a “gap-to-gap, doubles guy,” Marsh explained that while he’ll run into a ball from time to time, home runs are accidents. Line drives are his goal, which is precisely what the Angels want from him — and have wanted since taking him in the second round of the 2016 draft out of a Buford, Georgia high school.
“They’ve preached for me to keep my hands above the ball, and not be getting underneath and scooping it,” explained Marsh, who is listed at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. “That type of deal. I’m not a strong, strong guy. I’m tall, but the barrel tends to lag sometimes, so I really need to stay through, and on top of the ball.”
Marsh went on to say that he views himself as a scrappy player whose role is to grind and get on base in front of “a lot of special players.” And while it’s true that he’s not in the same class as teammates such as Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, or Anthony Rendon, he nonetheless struck an excessively-humble tone when assessing his own talent level. Read the rest of this entry »
On May 1, the Twins beat the Rays while the White Sox saw a late-inning comeback attempt against the Angels foiled. There was nothing particularly newsworthy about these games, but they did have a significant impact in the ZiPS projections: for the first time since early 2021, the White Sox were no longer the favorite to win the division.
Before the season started, ZiPS saw the AL Central as Chicago’s to lose, a calculation that was not going against the conventional wisdom. With a 61.9% projected chance of winning the division, ZiPS had the White Sox with the second-best divisional crown probability of any team in baseball on Opening Day, just below the Astros and their 62.8% chance of winning the AL West. And that projection had been even sunnier a month prior. When the lockout ended and we started Hot Stove League II: The Legend of Manfred’s Gold, ZiPS gave the White Sox a 10-game lead in the division and a 70.7% chance of finishing first in the Central. The team ZiPS was most worried about, from the point of view of the Pale Hose, wasn’t the Twins, but the Guardians, a team that didn’t even project to reach the .500 mark.
Amid the flurry of moves leading up to the lockout, Minnesota was very quiet, with Dylan Bundy as the club’s “big” signing. But once the lockout lifted, the Twins got into gear, picking up Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sánchez, Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and trading away Josh Donaldson, Taylor Rogers, various prospects, and… Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Twins also shocked the baseball world by getting Carlos Correa, one of the winter’s prime free agents, to sign a three-year contract worth $105.3 million, with opt-outs.
By the time all the roster shakeups and offseason moves finished, ZiPS had Minnesota’s 13-win shortfall against the White Sox down to just five wins. That’s a respectable cushion, but not one that will provide padding for all butts in all situations. And as I noted above, said cushion was all but gone by the beginning of May, though after two losses by the Twins and a win (and an off-day) for the White Sox, Chicago has narrowly taken back the lead in the projections:
ZiPS Projected Standings – AL Central (5/6)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Chicago White Sox
85
77
—
.525
44.8%
12.2%
57.0%
4.2%
Minnesota Twins
85
77
—
.525
41.1%
12.9%
53.9%
2.8%
Cleveland Guardians
80
82
5
.494
13.1%
8.0%
21.1%
0.7%
Detroit Tigers
71
91
14
.438
0.8%
0.6%
1.4%
0.0%
Kansas City Royals
68
94
17
.420
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
Chicago is the very slight favorite right now, but that can hardly be taken as a victory considering it represents basically a quarter-of-a-division crown that has evaporated in the last two months.
Some, but not all of the differences can be attributed to injury. Yoán Moncada was injured the day I ran the projections, though it didn’t look significant at that point. Eloy Jiménez is out as well, likely for a couple of months at least, and Lance Lynn is yet to make a start. Andrew Vaughn, one of the team’s few offensive bright spots, is also out with a bruised hand, though that looks far less serious than Jiménez’s hamstring.
But the Twins have their own recent injuries as well, in Gray, Bailey Ober, Jhon Romero, Miguel Sanó, and now Correa, who left Thursday’s game with a potentially fractured finger on his right hand. You always expect some injuries in the course of play; everyone being healthy isn’t the baseline expectation for anyone being realistic. The White Sox have good pitching depth that’s helped them survive Lynn’s absence and a brief IL stint by Lucas Giolito, but some of the offensive struggles (13th in the AL in runs scored) have to be chalked up to poor planning by the organization, and that’s not something you can attribute to poor luck.
Entering the season with a major hole at second base was a choice, not something fate thrust upon them. I thought at the time of the Craig Kimbrel trade that giving up Nick Madrigal was reasonable, something that many of you disagreed with at the time (and so far, it’s looking like I’m the loser in that debate). But my feelings about that trade would have been very different if you told me in advance that the White Sox were basically going to shout “Pass!” when it came to finding a replacement and would roll with a Leury García/Josh Harrison combination. No team we projected with a winning record had a worse depth chart projection at second entering the season.
Similarly, in right field, our preseason depth charts had the Sox above only two other squads projected to finish above .500. Picking up AJ Pollock was a good development, but the rest of the outfield consisted of two young players who missed a lot of time in 2021 with serious injuries (Jiménez and Luis Robert), Pollock has a lengthy injury history himself, and Vaughn was still a bit of a question mark. It only took a few injuries to stretch the team’s depth in both the infield and outfield.
Baseball’s new playoff system should have the White Sox determined to do more than coast to the divisional crown; with the weakest division winner put into a short wild-card round, ZiPS projected them as being the biggest loser in a 12-team playoff format. The good news is that, despite the problems so far, ZiPS sees Chicago’s decline in rest-of-season roster strength as a small one, from .531 to .527 before the strength of schedule is taken into consideration; the Twins have only improved from .508 to .509. The problem is that the good news is also bad news: ZiPS thinks that the relative strengths of the two teams aren’t drastically different than a month ago and still sees the division as a coin flip. To get the White Sox a comfortable division lead, you now have to think the White Sox are considerably better than their preseason projection.
White Sox Divisional Wins by Roster Strength
White Sox Roster Strength
2022 Division %
.480
17.4%
.490
22.2%
.500
27.7%
.510
33.7%
.520
40.1%
.527 (Current Projection)
44.8%
.530
46.6%
.540
53.2%
.550
59.7%
.560
66.1%
.570
72.2%
.580
77.6%
In short, the White Sox need to be better than they are now to regain the projected ground they lost. Even with a second wild card, that’s not necessarily a simple fallback position; ZiPS sees the average second AL wild card being an 89-win team and the average AL Central victor an 88-win team. What this means is that the Sox ought to be incentivized to be aggressive rather than reactive. Robinson Canó may be toast, but the chance that he isn’t is certainly worth the risk of a minimum salary. Don’t wait for another team to acquire Ramón Laureano in July before making an underwhelming counter-move; be the team that snags him in the first place, as quickly as possible. Get away from the idea that the contributions from any position are “enough” and adopt the mindset of brutally grabbing any opportunity that arises in the coming months. That’s what the Dodgers do.
The White Sox didn’t expect to be in a tight divisional race in 2022. They are now, and it’s time for them to act like it.
Jared Kelley has one of the more-intriguing arms in a Chicago White Sox system that has graduated much of its top talent to the big leagues in recent years. He might be best described as promising but raw. Drafted 47th overall in 2020 out of Refugio (Texas) High School, the 20-year-old right-hander came into this season having thrown just 23.2 professional innings. Moreover, he’d put up a 7.61 ERA in the lowest rungs of the minors while battling minor arm issues.
Despite the spotty early track record, Kelley’s ceiling is high. A ballyhooed prospect as a prep, he possesses a high-velocity fastball and a trio of developing secondaries.He’s off an up-and-down start in the current campaign. In his first outing with the Low-A Kannapolis Cannon Ballers, Kelley allowed just one hit, and one run, over three strong innings. In his second, he allowed eight baserunners and three earned runs over just one-and-two-thirds innings.No. 6 on our newly-released White Sox Top Prospects list, he discussed his early career development and how he’s adapted his repertoire.
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David Laurila: Let’s start with with your repertoire. What are you throwing now?
Jared Kelley: “I’ve been working on a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. The sinker — the two-seam sinker — is the newest pitch.”
Laurila: I want to hear about the two-seamer, but first, I recall reading that you also throw a curveball.
Kelley: “I don’t throw a curveball anymore. I used to throw a curve, but it was more like a slurve. I don’t think it was going to play at the next level, so we changed into something a little bit harder, and a little bit easier for me to repeat.”
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.
Notes
Brewer has always had big tools (plus-plus speed, above-average raw power, a plus arm) and some late-bloomer qualities. He was draft eligible in 2018 at Lincoln Trail JC in Illinois and went unselected, but emerged after he transferred to Michigan and went in the third round in 2019. Brewer has barely played pro ball due to a combination of the pandemic and injuries, including a knee surgery. Even though he’s already 24, you could reasonably hope things will click for him on a delay because of the atypical amateur path and all the missed reps in pro ball. Brewer’s start to the 2022 season is what it would look like on paper if that was actually happening. He’s halfway to his 2021 home run total after just six games. Read the rest of this entry »
One of my favorite yearly preseason pieces is also my most dreaded: the breakout list. I’ve been doing this exercise since 2014, and while I’ve had the occasional triumph (hello, Christian Yelich), the low-probability nature of trying to project who will beat expectations means that for every time you look smart, you’re also bound to look dumb for some other reason.
On the plus side, nobody really embarrassed me. Alex Kirilloff came closest, but in his defense, he was playing with a wrist injury that eventually required surgery. Read the rest of this entry »
Last Saturday, the White Sox rotation took a hit when Lance Lynn limped off the mound in pain after tearing a tendon in his right knee. In the wee hours of Tuesday, just before Lynn underwent surgery, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Chicago signed free agent Johnny Cueto to a minor league deal. The move helps to replenish the team’s depth and offers the promise of another go-round for for a pitcher who has been beset by injuries in recent years but has long ranked among the game’s most entertaining hurlers.
Via ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the 36-year-old Cueto will make a prorated share of $4.2 million dollars if he’s in the majors. According to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, he has a May 15 opt-out date if he’s still in the minors.
Cueto spent the past six seasons with the Giants via a $130 million deal, but the team cut bait last November by declining his $22 million option for this season, instead paying him a $5 million buyout — a move that was hardly a surprise given his ongoing injury problems. After making a full complement of 32 starts in 2016, he never made more than 25 in a season during the remainder of his deal. Blisters limited him to 25 turns in 2017, and an ankle sprain and Tommy John surgery to just 13 in ’18-19. He did make 12 starts during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but just 21 last year, scattered around separate trips to the injured list for a grade 1 lat strain, a flexor strain, COVID-19 protocol, and then an elbow strain that limited him to just one September appearance, the first relief appearance of his major league career.
Despite those maladies, Cueto’s 4.08 ERA (101 ERA-), 4.05 FIP (100 FIP-), and 1.5 WAR made for his best season since 2016, even though his 114.2 innings were 32.2 fewer than his total in ’17, when he produced 1.2 WAR. He struck out 20% of batters, right at his career average but placing him in just the 25th percentile according to Statcast; walked just 6.1% (good for the 75th percentile); and allowed 1.18 homers per nine, 0.15 lower than the major league average for starters. Though his exit velocity and barrel and hard-hit rates were better than average, with his 6.4% barrel rate coming in at the 71st percentile, his low strikeout rate inflated his xERA to a gaudy 4.99. Read the rest of this entry »
It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. And that means it’s time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses.
The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion — the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond).
After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.
The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Read the rest of this entry »
If I told you that two contending teams swapped major leaguers, you’d probably have an idea of what that looks like. Maybe a reliever and a fourth outfielder changed hands, or something like that. The Blue Jays and the White Sox didn’t do that, though; they swapped catchers, as Jeff Passan first reported:
The Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a trade that will send catcher Zack Collins to the Blue Jays in exchange for catcher Reese McGuire, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
But even though both Reese McGuire and Zack Collins play catcher, they do so in very different ways. Amusingly, as we at FanGraphs work through our Positional Power Rankings, Collins is essentially positionless power. His home run totals in the minors and batted ball metrics in the majors tell a consistent story; if he can figure out a way to limit his strikeouts, he’ll be a fearsome hitter.
In a previous era, that might have secured him a starting catching role. But our newfound understanding of the value of receiving has exposed Collins as one of the worst defenders at the position — one who was worth a ghastly 14 runs below average in only 506 innings of catching last year. It’s not an easy skill to show with a GIF or two, and that sounds like a ton of runs to surrender in such a short time. But that matches up with the eye test, and the Blue Jays will likely use Collins mainly as a first baseman and DH. Read the rest of this entry »
